Rasmussen will be polling the governor’s race every month. Here are some of the latest numbers (guess I should subscribe to get more details).
State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka (R) leads Governor Rod Blagojevich in an early look at the 2006 campaign for Governor of Illinois.
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Topinka with 48% of the vote while the incumbent Governor attracts 37%.
Blagojevich does better against two other potential challengers. Blagojevich is tied with Ron Gidwitz at 40%. The Governor holds a very slight lead over Jim Oberweis, 43% to 39%.
None of the candidates are viewed favorably by 50% or more of Illinois voters. Blagojevich and Topinka have far higher name recognition than the other candidates.
Topinka is viewed favorably by 46% of voters and unfavorably by 30%. For Blagojevich, it’s 40% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Gidwitz and Oberweis, a plurality don’t know enough about them to have an opinion.
Illinois voters are evenly divided as to whether the nation’s top priority in Iraq should be getting U.S. soldiers home as soon as possible or insuring a free and stable Iraq.
Notice that Bill Brady isn’t mentioned. This is the second time in recent weeks that a pollster has neglected to include Brady (the Post-Dispatch’s pollster was the first).
Thanks to a commenter for the tip.
Discuss.
UPDATE: I just called Rasmussen and they said Brady will be included in the next survey. Unfortunately for Brady, that won’t be until just before the March primary.
LIVE session coverage...
- Beowulf - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 8:40 am:
Rich, could you enlighten us as to why they fail to include Bill Brady in their polling? Is it simply an oversight or is it because they feel that he generates only single digit numbers like Martin?
It would seem that Ron Gidwitz is starting to get name recognition in the state due to his recent media blitz. Would that be a correct assumption?
- the Patriot - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 8:43 am:
Maybe if they keep ignoring Bill Brady he will go away. It is one thing not to get the free press that JBT does as treasurer, but how can you be an accurate poll if you ignore the fastest growing campaign.
This is only a name recognition poll anyway. The winner of the primary will have instant name recognition.
- Randall Sherman - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 9:22 am:
Any pollster who screws up by ignoring the only Downstate candidate in Senator Brady (who may well garner a huge block of votes from that half of the state… see Glenn Poshard’s vote totals in the 1998 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary to see what I’m talking about) shouldn’t be allowed to handle anything more important than getting a pizza delivered in 30 minutes or less!
Please note that at this time, the Illinois Committee for Honest Government has yet to endorse in the Republican Primary for Governor, so I can look at this mess from a detacted perspective. What Rasmussen did by ignoring Senator Brady was a disgrace to the Senator, to the voters of this state, and to the polling profession.
RANDALL SHERMAN
Secretary/Treasurer, Illinois Committee for Honest Government
Chicago
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 9:39 am:
Brady is only a downstate name, he really hasn’t caught on outside central Illinois, he is too white-bread for Illinois this year. Gidwitz has been flooding the Chicagoland airwaves for over a year, so his ad blitz seems new to downstaters, but Chicagoans have had enough with this guy’s ads!
Last month’s Post Dispatch poll seemed to favor the Governor by 5%. This one seems to favor JBT by 5%. So by my gut feelings it puts JBT around 43% to Blagojevich’s 37%, which sounds right. I am still feeling that considering the Governor’s stash of cash and his campaigning abilities, he will come back in the polls by November. But I still see JBT winning by 2-3% in November if she can get by the Republican looneys next month.
JBT has ran too many statewide campaigns and has been too exposed over the years to have a major surprise waiting for her this year. Blagojevich will need to buy one somewhere.
Blagojevich will do a great job campaigning as he always does, but he has an albatrose around his neck, named corruption, and he has worn out his welcome. He will need to show a completely new face this campaign season. Name calling, finger pointing, double standards, filthy friends, battling families, Keno and gambling, will not work for him anymore.
Good poll! I always like them when they agree with my gut instincts!
- Tony Soprano - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 9:51 am:
And they also dont include Andy Martin. GO JBT!!
- Nameless - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 9:55 am:
The JBT campaign really needs to publicize the heck out of this poll. Rasmussen had a very strong track record in 2004.
- jechislo - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 10:09 am:
Brady had my vote months ago. And he still has my vote. Ignoring him in a poll won’t make him go away. When he wins the primary he will run a superb campaign and give Rod a real run for the Mansion.
- Anon - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 10:33 am:
An informal brief from the streets which says it as well as a pollster or pundit:
In passing, I asked a working suburban mom (the kind who’s busy from 5:00am until 10:00pm with a full-time job, family, activities, errands and doctor appointments) what she thought of the candidates for governor. She said, “On the Republican side, I really can’t stand Topinka and Oberweis. That Brady guy doesn’t really look up to it, and, ummm, I don’t know the other guy’s name.(!) On the Democratic side, Blagojevich - he isn’t perfect, but I like what he’s doing for education, kids and healthcare. I’m voting for Blagojevich.” (She didn’t mention EE.)
It’s a snapshot, but it says a thousand words.
- Bill - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 10:48 am:
What an excellent snapshot and much more accurate than any poll!
- DOWNSTATE - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 11:25 am:
Anon 10:30 after this election and Blago sticks his big tax increase to pay for all the give aways you are talking about you and me will have to take a second job.Nothing is free.
- Governor Hypocrite - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 12:08 pm:
Anon 10:33 Keep working that full-time job to save for your kids. They will need lots of money to pay for all the borrowing Blagojevich has done. It is sad that our kids will pay for years so that things look good now! The pension and bond bills will have to be paid.
- Anon - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 12:16 pm:
Blago v. Topinka would be close. He wins easily against any of the other Republicans. Conventional wisdom suggests that Topinka should come out of the primary, but I have a hunch that Oberweiss is going to beat her. The combined conservative vote should be at least 50%, so if Gidwitz matches Brady, that leaves more for Oberweiss than Topinka. Rich, we would really like to hear the numbers from the Republican primary poll you mentioned last week.
- Skeeter - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 12:58 pm:
What is interesting is that the poll confirms that the ILGOP is once again goig to shoot itself in the foot.
JBT will either not get the nomination, or if she does, the right will stay home in November giving the race to Blago.
JBT is the only Republican who can beat him (confirmed by about every poll taken on this race) since the others have negatives at least as bad as Blago’s. The Milk Man acts like he is running for Gov. of Georgia (the far right stuff just doesn’t play here) and Brady thinks “Intelligent Design” should be taught in schools. We are losing jobs to India and China, and Brady thinks the solution is for schools to teach more religion and less science? That will not fly in November.
As somebody who saw what the left did to the Democrats in the 1980s, I admit that I enjoy this. When the extremists take over, the party loses.
- SenorAnon. - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 1:26 pm:
Ooooohhh. I’m sure the entire field is waiting on pins and needles for that lucrative and important Illinois Committee for Honest Government endorsement…
- Papa Legba - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 1:30 pm:
Anon 10:33 is proving how out of touch, or myopic, that Blago’s core support really is. It is sad.
- Cassandra - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 1:31 pm:
If JBT gets through the primary she is going to have to work very, very hard if she wants to beat Blago. The far left will put aside their ethics, as they always do, hold their noses, and vote for Blago. And I agree that the far right will stay home because they see moderate Repubs
as being less helpful to their cause than rural Democrats, who can always be intimidated by local campaigns favoring right-wing ideas. No need to win statewide when your Dem local pol will do what you ask.
To combat all this…need a LOT more energy from JBT. So far, her campaign has been lackadaisical at best. Perhaps it’s a stratagem to get her through the primary without irritating any more right wingers but it’s not going to work in the general. And it means that we still don’t know if she has the stamina to run a statewide race, or if her campaign staff have what it takes.
- Anon - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 1:35 pm:
Where was this poll taken? Central Illinois?
- Anon - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 1:37 pm:
Online among Capitol Fax bloggers?
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 1:58 pm:
Vanillaman must think everything south of Springfield is also Southern IL. Last I read, Brady was endorsed last week by Sen. Luechtefeld, Sen. Jones and Sen. Bost, all from south of I-70.
A JBT supporter above was absolutely right that the GOP could shoot itself in the foot, but not for why she thinks. JBT has never had a tough statewide race. Her field organization is week, and she outside the bounds of more than 60% of the GOP primary vote. Problem is, she’s not a Republican in the minds of many conservatives, and that will hurt in the fall as they stay home because they can’t bear to vote for another George Ryan…. somebody who turns out to be as liberal as any Democrat once in the Govenror’s Office.
The biggest problem, though, is that there are people who think Oberweis is the other option. If you like what happened to Alan Keyes, vote for Jim Oberweis. And those of you in very close Republican Senate and House districts should start getting used to being represented by Democrats. It won’t be pretty.
I think it’s time to turn the page for Republicans. Flush out the establishment that associated with George Ryan (Topinka) and failed candidates on the extreme (Oberweis) and vote for a guy who could garner support from Republicans as well as downstate Democrats. Bill Brady. Contrary to what the Oberweis herd dreams, Brady IS picking up steam, and it’s only a matter of time before the milkman returns to his typical second or third place slot on Election Day.
Why wait for him to run again? Republicans should nominate Brady, and gear up for a real race in the fall.
As for head-to-heads, I think several polls have shown two common themes. One, there’s a ten to fifteen percent any Republican over Blagojevich, and, two, all of the Republicans are closer to the Governor than he would like before the primary has even occured.
If Brady wins the primary, I think you’ll see his numbers skyrocket against Blagojevich. Any of the Republicans will probably pick up points once the race is decided. But Brady’s story will be better…. an underdog coming from behind representing new leadership.
Over 40 days out. Lots of time left so any one of them could stumble or take off.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 4:07 pm:
JBT is the only chance the republicains have in beating Blago. That alone is pretty disgusting, since JBT is so underqualified to actually be a governor. If Oberweis is to win, the Chicago area will slaughter him come nov. Brady’s Intelligent Design b/s will not go with a lot of voters. It’s too bad niether Dem or Repubs could put anyone decent in this primary to challenge the status quo.
- scoot - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 4:40 pm:
Nameless 9:55- I totally agree with you. Get these numbers out to the voters. As each month passes by, the margin is likely to grow. 10 months and counting hot rod
- HoosierDaddy - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 5:30 pm:
Anonymous 4:07– how do you figure underqualified? Multiple terms in statewide office and the state legislature, experience managing the third largest office in Illinois… That’s a LOT more than G-Rod had going in. I’d say she’s pretty qualified. The question is more a matter of her politics and her political skill. Both highly questionable as far as the Republican base is concerned.
- "B Team" - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 5:34 pm:
Pull a democratic ballot in the primary and vote for Eddie! If governor puffery makes it past the primary, vote for anybody else in the general election! A.B.B.
- Anon - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 7:22 pm:
Rich - The ComEd Advertisement needs to be in a different typeface, border, whatever, to make it clear that it is a paid advertorial. Otherwise, it makes it look like CapitalFax is endorsing the ComEd position. If that is true, just say so, If not, please change it to look different.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 8:19 pm:
It’s clearly labeled.
- Lovie's Leather - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 11:11 pm:
interesting poll… that is all that I have to say… oh and, one other thing before I go: it was I who put the Gidwitz sign next to the Oberweis signs at his appearence in Galesburg… wooo… I just had to get that off my chest… I laughed about that the whole way home… I can just picture Obee cursing under his breath as he walked outside… Now I just don’t know what to do with all these stupid Rauschenberger for Gov signs… maybe Obee will be in central illinois again…
- YNM - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 11:21 pm:
I assume the new Trib poll might be the one you were referencing earlier this week Rich? Nothing significant compared to any previous polls really … at least IMHO.
- SouthernILRepub - Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 11:57 pm:
JBT has not spent much time downstate, I’m talking even in the I80 corridor from what I see. Her endorsements leave something to be desired. Granted she got AFSCME, but that is a knee-jerk reaction to Blago saying, “we hate you” With the exception of the Fayette Co. Repubs, where is this massive downstate support for JBT that has her winning the election by such a vast margin. I honestly question the Fayette endorsement because I know several members from that org, sounds like some strong-arming on JBT has been going on.
- Southern Illinois Dem - Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 5:32 pm:
Fayette County Repugs will not vote in large enough numbers to carry the county for her in the primary. Fayette will go with Obie or Brady. Pro choice and pro gay marriage candidates don’t do well in a Repub primary in this part of Illinois.