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New poll
Wednesday, Jul 12, 2006 Rasmussen has a new Illinois poll. It’s posted behind a membership firewall, and I haven’t confirmed the numbers yet, but I hear they’re very good for the governor. Something like 45-34 with 9 going for “other.” Post what you know in comments.
- Posted by Rich Miller
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- annon. in central illinois - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 5:53 pm:
Can’t access that information …but…where on earth did they poll ?? I never get any of these calls….strange ? What kind of questions did they ask ?? Are these people not listening to the news or reading newspapers ?? With the state in the shape it’s in, corruption/ scandal leading right to the “guvs” front door, 9 seperate investigations that we know of, bills falling to be paid on time & way behind, no pension contributions, mortgaged about everything they can, borrow borrow borrow, ect, ect, ect. It just defies all explaination. What was the reason for this sudden turn around ???
- Squideshi - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 6:01 pm:
I agree with annon. I’m not convinced that 9 is a good representation of how many people will be voting for Rich Whitney for Governor. It seems to me that this number is going to be much higher.
- Reddbyrd - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 6:31 pm:
That about wraps it up.
Next news should be Judy Bore reveals the AccordionGal campaign account has $.50 and GRod has $1 zillion.
Then will truly be some handwringing.
Sorry but the GOP (as in MOPE) must face reality some time. Sooner the better.
- SilverBackDemocrat - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 6:38 pm:
The election will be close come November, but the Governor will win. Albeit, with all of the bad publicity he has received from the newspapers. Nevertheless, people understand what is going on in the media and Republican circles. The Repubs and the media are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the Governor; he is a good Democrat and Democrats appreciate what he is trying to do. He has had some bad press… So what! That’s politics. The supposed Rasmussen numbers do not surprise me at all. What do you think happens when you are defined by your opponent for 2 months. This election is all but sealed shut. People I talk with are sick and tired of hearing Republicans and Conservatives “whine and complain” all the time. All of the old ladies and old men that sit around and watch TV, the 6:00 news and 10:00 news have already heard enough about Ms. Topinka; they have probably already made up their minds. Why? Because they know that the Republicans are being “hypocrites!” And guess what, voting is a culture-families typically vote the same way, always have and most likely always will. The same people vote year in and year out. This is a Democratic state. I hope the Repubs learn to, “Cope with it.” Illinois typically has a large Democratic turnout for the Presidential elections; let’s hope there is a strong get out the vote effort this year, so Illinois can lead the way back to the White House or Democrats. Bring big brother Bill Clinton, and brother Al Gore back into the mix (excellent jump-startes for our base). The Republicans have entrenched themselves so deep in state government (meaning state employees)that they have tried to create a “fiasco” out of everything the Governor does or attempts to do. I hear these “haters’” everyday. They are truly pathetic. The poll numbers should be pretty good for the Governor. Now, the Governor needs to come out with one really good proposal to boost his image in a positive fashion (and run commercials like all-get-out), like-$1.00 a gallon gasoline for Iraqi war veterans. George “dubya” won’t but Democrats will; we are with our military. I heard somebody floating around that the Governor has been processing the idea for some time (just crunching the numbers right now). It is a win, win scenario for the Governor. For those who don’t like the poll, “deal with it.”
- Old Elephant - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 7:28 pm:
Rich, I guess it was kind of hopeless to expect anyone to actually provide some real information, instead of spinning numbers they haven’t seen.
Still, I would hope that you reconsider calling 45% “very good” for Blagojevich. We all know that anything under 50% for an incumbent is not “good” much less “very good.”
- Lovie's Leather - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 7:39 pm:
Alright GOP, let the Dems have their day today with unknown numbers. We’ll wait til November to have our day…
- anon - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 8:14 pm:
Well the non-poll is interesting. Blago still has not moved up after spending what 6million. You would expect Judy to be lower but she is only 6 point down. This poll must have been taken before the news of the investigations and new National attention that Judy is getting. Having National support will encourage the rank in file GOP.
- annon. in the styks - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 8:27 pm:
What an oration “Silver” gave…”Bravo!!” Obviously he/ she is voting &/or working for Bladgo !! You are right people {GOP & others} are throwing everything at the Governor including “kitchen sink”, tomatoes & anything else handy to express disgust & bring to the attention of the public this guys inability to govern. NO I really don’t think he subcribes to “main stream” democratic value & Democrats are not appreciative “of what he’s trying to do” ala very failed policy on every level & literally bankrupting the state ! I don’t think people are “whining” as much as outraged & tired of really getting screwed. Lost jobs & opportunity in Illinois is effecting many & the business climate of Illinois is hostile at best. I don’t know what you mean by the “media & GOP circles” as most major media seems to be neutral & somewhat liberal. These stories aren’t fabricated ..they are real !! “”COPE WITH IT” as you say. I don’t think it’s the GOP that makes “fiascos” out of everything the “guv” does …ole’ Roddy has been doing that pretty well on his own. Bad press you say..??..just politics ..??…if only that was what he {and his minions} had to worry about. The Feds & multiple investigations, the states delinquent bills, growing debt {many BILLIONS }& continued, expensive spending ect., ect.. No I don’t think the election is “sealed” & 4 more of this guy will “seal” the fate of Illinois that will take years to recover !.
- B Hicks - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 8:29 pm:
Nice
- thesummerknows - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 8:38 pm:
Methinks “silverback” is a newer state employee with political connections, “working” late, with nothing to do and tons of time to waste doing it. Silverback, you aren’t by any chance TB from DOT, are you?
- mmph - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 8:47 pm:
If the numbers Rich is hearing are accurate this huge! The poll had to be taken after Fed’s letter which means the letter had no effect, I wonder how many voters read his letter and thought ” He investigated Rove for two years and look what happened…nothing”.
- thesummerknows - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 8:55 pm:
It’s “Duh” not “Da”. Your days are numbered so buck up and take it like a man!!
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 8:56 pm:
Remember, indictments can change everything
- annon. in the styks - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 8:59 pm:
Well that may be the case !? Maybe the average guy/ gal doesn’t understand nor comprehend the gravity of the investigations & problems because there are so many you need a program to keep your place ? Maybe they don’t know which investigation? Maybe they are just turned off by it all ? Maybe Rove did nothing & Bladgo has ?? You know a poll is a poll is a poll. They can “harvest” about anything you want from them & people will say anything on a phone call. Curious where they call … I never get one. What did they ask? Not trying to burst the bubble here but I {and others} just don’t see it for many of reasons layed out in this section. GRod is in trouble on many fronts & I think this election is far from in the bag.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 9:08 pm:
Anon 8:14’s republican math -
45 - 34 = 6
- anon - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 9:18 pm:
Yes, it meant 6 from the last judys last poll I saw not from Blago. No comment on the rest of the post.
- B Hicks - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 9:19 pm:
If she just had a mullett, she’d be the perfect 10.
- annon. in central illinois - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 9:32 pm:
Hang in there “B. Hicks”
- Silas - Opus Dei Monk - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 9:59 pm:
ultimately the voters have the final say so and not the pundits! May the best candidate win, Rod or JBT.
- Lovie's Leather - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 10:15 pm:
Look at all the partisan fighting going on here. This didn’t start as partisan bickering. Why is it that a year ago we reached concensus that “We voted for Rod, but we got the shaft!” Everybody thought he was completely worthless until JBT is compared to him. At that point, she stood for nothing. It just goes to show you the discrimination of somebody that has an (R) next to their name. It doesn’t matter how well he or she could govern as long as it looks like Rod might be almost kinda a little bit doing a mediocre job. This isn’t a partisan issue. It is an issue of ability. Who has the ability to lead. And I think people will see, in the coming months, who the leader is and who the weasel is. And whoever thinks this won’t be voting straight-ticket in November… as much as I would like to…
- JJSpringfield - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 10:22 pm:
Oh heaven, Annon.
No one called me so the poll mustn’t be true? Really?
So, you’re saying that the pollsters called 400 people, and out of the mere eleven MILLION people in the state, YOU weren’t called?
Based on yor sound rationale, I have to ask, why don’t you use your lotto winnings to commission your own poll.
- State Employee that works for a living - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 10:25 pm:
“You are right people {GOP & others} are throwing everything at the Governor including “kitchen sinkâ€, tomatoes & anything else handy to express disgust & bring to the attention of the public this guys inability to govern.”
…in the styks, are you serious. The only thing that’s been consistent on this blog is how JBT hasn’t done anything to counter Blago’s negative spin. How does that equate to “everything but the kitchen sink.
Obviously, Blago’s people are desparate for anything that will paint him in a good light. The problem is…there isn’t anything for them to use.
- Nostradamus - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 11:23 pm:
silverback, b hicks, do the dems send you their
spin sheets daily or weekly? someone ought to
contact dan walker, otto kerner and tell them to
be on the lookout for “hot rod”. he’ll look good
in those orange suits of doc (corrections). you
might not know what doc stands for. wait til all
the investigators find out about all the “da”
contracts that he gave to his buddies. think about this! why would those 2 people in the
personnel office put themselves in jeopardy to
give grades the people didn’t deserve ? i think
that blogo is trying to cover his ass, making it
look like the “ig” uncovered this wrong doing and
he’s upset. did either of you have any political
recommendations for r.r. blagojevich, as who to
hire ? were your names on the list? as for a good
demo, they are a rare find. Joe Lieberman is one.
think about what represents the demo’s, two
jackasses, one real, the other howard dean. as i
say, r.r. blagojevich….that means “railroad
blagojevich”. i think patti and her corrupt real estate partner, should list the “state of illinois” for sale. i feel sorry for his spokes-
people, having to tell lies day after day. no i
don’t. remember, rod and staff are trying to
“ferret” out the corruption, they may all be gone
when it’s all said and done.
- This brother says - Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 11:52 pm:
Both are the same JB and RB so get over it. Its the Illinois way “Pay to play! both sides will continue to do it so quit calling it coruption, when your candidate wins, you always want something.
- annon. in styks - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 5:58 am:
I’m not complaining that I haven’t rec’d a call & that is not the basis for my post , just wondering who these (400) plus are you mention, what they’ve asked & do they not read papers or hear a news broadcast…simply put it’s just suspect when all around this guy is crashing down with problems everywhere you look & “suddenly” he’s emerging like a “phoenix” from the rubble unscathed & all perfect with growing numbers. Sounds a little like Oby & his polls of the primary. But yes, a poll is a poll is a poll & the only poll you can really interpret is one you put in the field to get answers to the questions you want or need to get answers to. And, incidentally I seldom if ever play the lotto.
- annon. - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 6:19 am:
Obviously some are not reading the entire thread here …pulling bits & pieces out at will that are in fact responses or in some cases here using terms previously used, interpreted & then “using them” back to make an opposing point. The “kitchen sink reference” was actually an answer expanded upon using information of an opposing dem. view to make their point. Reading this post tells me the numbers are a little “funny” if these negative posts toward the governor are any real {minature}indication as to how most folks feel. He’s failed in many ways, broken many promises & people are mad as well as worried & rightfully so !! This state & it’s “”leadership”" are in serious trouble.
- Bondi Girl - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 8:23 am:
I think Rod will prevail in November…everytime Judy opens her mouth she injures herself…when she talks about GRod being corrupt it is the pot calling the kettle black…I think of her and her cronies every time I stay at a certain hotel in Springpatch and remember lovingly the 5 billion
debt her buddies George and Jim sadddled us with…if Fitzgerald has the goods on the Gov, I doubt the indictment will affect the outcome of the elections in November…
- Schiznitz - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 8:50 am:
Bondi girl
You doubt an indictment would affect the outcome of the election? What color is the sky in your world? It is time to take the blue pill.
- DOWNSTATE - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:03 am:
I am a believer in Rasmussen but some of what this is based on is the unknown factor.The third party that’s still in court. JBT has just now started her campaigning what does she have to bring out yet.Blago has spent millions to knock her out and she is still standing and picking up steam.Let’s take a look at the Governor.A sitting governor,that if you read some of the blog here he is like a little Jesus,has spent millions on campaign and he is only at 45%.Something is wrong here he should be at 59 to 62%.Now JBT needs to pick it up or pack it in.Has anyone seen thier disapproval od approval rating that will factor in also.So before anyone gets crowned king or queen we need more information.
- Reality check - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:04 am:
Wow, one poll and everyone has Rod winning…too funny.
- Marvelous Wonderfl - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:04 am:
Silver, Bondi you folks are wishing upon some star that is going to dissapoint you.
- Bill from self-exile - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:07 am:
You Go, Bondi Girl!
- Anon - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:14 am:
Looks like the Marlboro Womans plan to run a campaign based on income tax increases for working men and women isn’t working. With this kind of news this will be at least a two pack day.
- DOWNSTATEI - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:20 am:
I might add the new anti-Blago pro-gun email runnig on the internet is a good one.Should hurt him a bunch with the gun people.
- just watching - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:27 am:
Wow Bondi!! If that 5 billion in debt which I believe is an exagerated figure) that GRyan left makes you so upset, you must be ready choke blago for tripling the state debt to well over $30 billion.
- BuckTurgidson - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:28 am:
Downstate, in the words of Billy Preston, Nothin from Nothin leaves Nothin.
That is a base play. And email is cheap because it isn’t effective.
- Disgusted - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:50 am:
I’m going to try this statement one more time. NOT ALL STATE EMPLOYEES ARE DEMOCRATS OR REPUBLICANS AND SOME OF THEM GOT THEIR JOBS THROUGH EDUCATION AND EXPERIENCE! Many of you need to stop trying to paint them all with the same brush. It doesn’t matter what party gets elected, they all seem to be in it for #1, not for the good of this state. They all run up big debts which they leave for future administrations to take care of, they all love photo-ops more than actually working on the state’s problems and none of them are perfect. So stop with the partisanship because there is no such thing as a perfect politician. It’s all about action baby, not speeches.
- question? - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:38 am:
Does the fact that the poll was conducted on July 6th, and only July 6th raise any flags with anyone else? I for one know I was out of town that week…how many people did they have to call to contact 500 ‘likely’ voters on what probably was the absolute worst week to do a survey?
What’s the +/- on a 500-count survey conducted on one day across the entire state? 8%…9% until I see something that backs up these results I am chalking this one up to the outlier category
- anon - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:45 am:
The basic numbers are no longer behind the firewall.
Rich was right with his intitial report: Blago 45% to JBt’s 34%
Also Blago 48% favorable vs 49% unfavorable
JBT 40% favorable vs 50% unfavorable
Looks like Rod’s strategy to drive up Judy’s negatives is working.
Job approval for Blago 43% approve 56% disapprove
With unfavorable ratings for both higher than their favorables, I wonder how much Whitney could draw if he gets on the ballot.
- BuckTurgidson - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:49 am:
Maybe they didn’t know you were out of town.
Or maybe they figured they could reach out to a couple of the other six million registered voters here.
It doesn’t matter how many people they had to call to get 500 likely voters. And you put ditto marks around likely. They’re classified as likely because they are asked if they plan to vote. If they say “no” they are thanked for their time and the call ends. If they say “yes,” they are counted. Ergo - likely voters.
The MOE was +/- 4.5% - did you read it?
I love how people attack polls they don’t like. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Of COURSE there are bad polls. But come on, people. It’s only July. Plenty more to come. Lots of polls for everyone to hate are imminent.
- just watching - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:05 am:
Buck, I see they claim that a survey of 500 voters in the entire state of Illinois is supposed to get an MOE of +/- 4.5% but quite frankly I don’t see how.
very good polling firms that sample 400 voters in just 1 state senate district generally get an MOE of +/- 5% and that is 400 voters in just one state senate district. SO I don’t see how adding 100 respondents to a voting population 59 times larger than that can actually lower the MOE but whatever Rasmussen says I suppose.
I love how people completely embrace polls they do like as absolute fact whebn they like the outcome.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:08 am:
People, people. Rasmussen is a decent outlet. If you have no appreciation for or understanding of the science of polling, fine. But what the heck are you doing following politics?
I’m closing this thread because I’ve posted the results on Thursday’s QOTD.