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Little Lip on the bubble *** Updated x2 ***
Monday, Dec 3, 2007 * I’ve been hearing reports that Dan Lipinksi’s campaign has been calling some ward organizations in his district several times a day. Panic appears to be setting in over his primary race against Democrat Mark Pera and two others. Larry at ArchPundit ran some results from Pera’s benchmark poll of Democratic voters several days ago which appears to show that Little Lip’s district ain’t nearly as conservative as some people have claimed, particlarly in the primary…
* Ray Hanania, however, claims that Lipinski is far more liberal than Pera has been portraying him…
AFSCME endorsed Lipinski on Friday, by the way. * I’m still skeptical of Pera’s chances. There are two other candidates in the primary race, both with their own bases of support. The general rule of thumb in primaries is “The more, the merrier” for incumbents. Pera won the ballot lottery, so his name will appear first - giving him a slight edge if the race is close. Lipinski can probably expect an onslought of hostile media coverage for the remainder of the primary. His elevation to his daddy’s seat still rankles the media, and reporters appear eager to pile on. Remember how Mayor Daley forced his petition circulators sign affidavits swearing that they wouldn’t trade their efforts for government jobs or contracts? Well, Fox Chicago ran this story the other day on how a third of Lipinski’s circulators were government employees - and all of them appear on the infamous Robert Sorich “clout list”… The bottom line, though, is that those precinct workers will make a big difference come election day. * More congressional stories, compiled by Paul…
 *** UPDATE 1 *** One of Pera’s people took a look at that National Journal study cited by Ray Hanania above. Hanania claimed that the numbers showed Little Lip was “‘more liberal’ than 71 percent of other members of Congress.” But Pera’s folks note that if you look at the results for just congressional Democrats, you find that Lipinski’s voting record is “more conservative” than 78.5 percent of his fellow Democrats. Download the spreadsheet here. *** UPDATE 2 *** Interesting news from Pera’s campaign…
- Posted by Rich Miller
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- DeepFriedOnAStick - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 9:52 am:
Is Shimkus truly as dumb as he sounds?
Yes, congressman, that’s right. You’re now free to vote however you please. You may even vote no all the time, if that’s what makes you happy. You’re in the minority now, and your vote doesn’t matter!
- Levois - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 9:54 am:
I was going to question the more the merrier for incumbents but I think I see where you’re going. The more people running the more likely it is for the incumbent to win the election. In which I case I wonder why some have a hissy fit if someone runs against them.
- Turn DuPage Purple - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 10:09 am:
How do pecinct workers make a difference? I’ve walked precincts in legislative races before; not a ton, but enough to know that the most you’re going to get is a vacant smile and a nod of the head, probably followed by a trip to the wastebasket where the information you give the voter is quickly and quietly disposed of. I mean, I understand that a candidate and his or her minions have to be “out there,” but I’ve never really felt like my legwork made much of a difference. I think the value of precinct workers is overblown.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 10:12 am:
===How do pecinct workers make a difference? ===
You’ve apparently never been involved in a Machine race. They make a big difference. Watch what happens to Lip’s numbers in the last 2-3 weeks. Challengers always have high hopes until they see the late polls. That’s when the Machine kicks into high gear.
- Turn DuPage Purple - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 10:22 am:
No, never been involved in a “machine” race, but I’ve walked some precincts in state legislative districts that overlapped the suburban Cook portion of Old Man Lip’s district. I think my physical appearance was too vanilla, personally. Maybe I should have packed on 20 pounds, worn a fedora, chomped on an unlit cigar and promised the voters christmas turkeys in a heavy Chicago accent.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 10:26 am:
Are that many people in the 3rd CD worried about ANWR? Don’t people in Chicago pay through the nose for gas? Isn’t this AGAINST their best interests? Perhaps Lip knows what he’s doing - as opposed to the people in his own district.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 10:52 am:
What we are discovering is how much Lipinski is willing to fight for his job. He got it on a silver platter with a big red bow, so he hasn’t had to work for his current job, until now. What we are also discovering is whether the Democrats in this District want to win in 2008, or play games and risk an easy win in the General.
While he has had the cards stacked in his favor, he has yet to show us if he knows how to play the game. His father continues to have a big hand steering his son’s political battles, and this is a plus for him. On the other hand, the gig is up, and voters will decide for themselves if this Lipinski deserves re-election.
The right opponent could have beaten Little Lip, but Pera doesn’t have it quite right, and has painted himself into a corner following 2006 dead ends.
His first miscalculation has been trying to portray this District as fitting him, instead of trying to fit the District. Yes, he has to win the Primary, but he needs to demonstrated that he is similar politically to Lipinski, not dissimilar. He has to be Lipinski without the ethical baggages or Daddy problems.
Instead, Pera shifted to Lipinski’s left. By doing this, he demands that voters support him by re-evaluating their political stands and supporting his instead. His views do not fit the District as he claims, instead they fit Democratic Primary voters, with whom he hopes to find victory.
We pretty much know that 2008 will be more conservative, than 2006. As I predicted several months ago, the Battle for Iraq is fading as a key issue, worse for Democrats politically, the Surge is working. And as expected, Pelosi and Reid are polling lower than Bush as they refused to compromise by politicizing every Congressional battle and losing each. Pelosi isn’t seen as a San Francisco grandma anymore. She and her political liabilities make anyone apeing her a loser in purple or red Congressional districts in 2008.
So this District in 2008 fits Lipinksi even more politically than it did in 2006. Will the Democrats in this District want to win with the incumbant, or play games and take risks?
There are so many reasons to vote Lipinski out, but his political stands are not one of them. Lipinski can lose this Primary by being Lipinski, so he will need to clearly show Primary voters that he will be the easy November win. Lipinski has to remind voters that although he came into office in a way that would make anyone but Todd Stroger ashamed, he is a winner. And choosing a winner is the goal of a Primary, not finding a soul mate for Nancy Pelosi.
- Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 11:08 am:
So this District in 2008 fits Lipinksi even more politically than it did in 2006. Will the Democrats in this District want to win with the incumbant, or play games and take risks?
No kidding…I’m amazed so many throwing their energy behind Pera when it seems like Roskam or the open 14th would be better targets to direct that kossack energy.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 11:20 am:
Roskam and 14 are mostly November contests.
- archpundit - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 11:27 am:
A winner? How hard is that to demonstrate when your competition is Spanky and a white supremacist?
C’mon. Let’s get real here-whomever wins that primary wins the general.
- archpundit - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 11:28 am:
===Are that many people in the 3rd CD worried about ANWR? Don’t people in Chicago pay through the nose for gas? Isn’t this AGAINST their best interests? Perhaps Lip knows what he’s doing - as opposed to the people in his own district.
ANWR isn’t a large enough reserve to affect the price of gas.
- Anon from the desktop - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 11:36 am:
Wow! The PJ Star is all over the Versace non-story! And their reporter wasn’t even present at the interview.
Quite a contrast to the Schock nucs to Taiwan story of a couple weeks back.
- nobody sent - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 11:40 am:
VanillaMan,
Your GOP wishful thinking is as unrealistic as it’s ever been.
Don’t think for a second that this is going to be anything less than another huge Democratic year. Bush/Cheney’s numbers are in the tank. As low as any president in recent memory, way lower than Clinton’s at this point in his presidency.
You can hope the whole idea of Pelosi as a negative takes hold, but that didn’t work in 06.
The surge might be reducing violence, but that’s by no means a measure of success, it is a means to end, which is a political solution. Which isn’t happening.
So, moving on, Pera, or any of the other Dems in the race aren’t too left for the district. You’d have to have Abbie Hoffman run in that district for a Republican to get elected. Nice try moving the GOP talking points though.
- Greg - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 11:47 am:
–ANWR isn’t a large enough reserve to affect the price of gas.–
Nobody knows what would happen to the price. Could go down a lot, could be unch bc OPEC might then cut production, could go higher. If you’re still certain, however, then I’m sure you’ll have a great short put position on if the time comes.
- Carl Nyberg - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 11:58 am:
Based on Democrats representing Great Lakes Region urban districts, Lipinski is exceedingly conservative on social issues and among the most most deferential to Bush on foreign policy and civil liberties.
IMO, the hitch for Pera is not that Lipinski is secretly quite liberal minus some high visibility issues. The hitch for Pera is that he’s quite conservative minus some high visibility issues.
I’m going to qualify this claim by noting that Pera’s positions have evolved during the campaign. At a DFA forum in Oak Park, someone claimed Pera sounded pretty open to attacking Iran. (I was there, but the comment happened in a small discussion to which I was not a party.) More recently Pera has made statements that sound much more critical of the idea of attacking Iran.
Also, Pera has stopped giving details about his health care ideas after figuring that his statements are too sympathetic to the insurance industry and status quo for the tastes of most activists.
Defending Lipinski as a closet liberal ain’t gonna work. Attacking Pera as a closet conservative (pro-choice, anti-Iraq War version of Lipinski) might. But it’s probably too late to use this kind of attack to keep Pera from connecting to volunteers and donors.
If Lipinski had sought a constructive relationship with bloggers and activists he could have probably head off the Pera insurgency.
Maybe there’s a lesson here for other Dem elected officials.
- Carl Nyberg - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:03 pm:
Vanilla Man, your claim that Dems nominating Pera will put the district at risk of the GOP winning discredits you as not knowing the details.
Which Republican candidate–Michael Hawkins or Art Jones–would have a chance of beating Bennett, Capparelli, Lipinski or Pera?
The Green candidate could get 15% of the vote and the Dem would still beat either Republican by 15+ points.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:06 pm:
While I still think he’s the frontrunner, Lipinski has made the exact same mistakes that Alan Dixon made in the runup to 1992. Dixon was popular with the general electorate, but neglected to calculate how his voting behavior would play in a primary in a year that Democratic voters were hopping mad at the Republican president. Result: US Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun.
- archpundit - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:08 pm:
===Nobody knows what would happen to the price. Could go down a lot, could be unch bc OPEC might then cut production, could go higher. If you’re still certain, however, then I’m sure you’ll have a great short put position on if the time comes.
95 percent confidence intervals put the amount to less than 1% of daily world oil production. It simply is too small of a reserve to affect the price. There is no way it could force the price lower.
- Rob_N - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:10 pm:
More Congressional stories: “* TeamAmerica: Looks like Dan Seals may be looking for a new day job”
CapFax rules: “Inappropriate or excessively rabid comments, gratuitous insults and “rumors” will be deleted or held for moderation.”
…Go figure.
- Carl Nyberg - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:11 pm:
Bill Lipinski voted against the Iraq War.
Dan Lipinski has never said “no” to a Bush request to fund the occupation.
- Rob_N - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:16 pm:
Rich explains: “===How do pecinct workers make a difference? ===
You’ve apparently never been involved in a Machine race. … Watch what happens to Lip’s numbers in the last 2-3 weeks. … That’s when the Machine kicks into high gear.”
That’s what folks said about a bunch of aldermanic incumbents last spring… ;)
Two months til we find out if history repeats itself.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:21 pm:
Rob, the difference is that many of those aldermanic challengers had far better precinct operations than the incumbents. My point still stands. Precinct work is crucial. I don’t know if Pera is up to snuff in that department. We’ll see.
- Pat Collins - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:26 pm:
mistakes that Alan Dixon made in the runup to 1992
But Al the Pal had a 3 way primary also. So does Lip - but I think his 3 way helps him.
- Greg - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:26 pm:
Archpundit, if you know for certain that supply changes of that magnitude can’t affect prices, then more power to you. You should start by shorting vol before EIA announcements.
- Pat Collins - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:28 pm:
Walking precints
I’ve done that also. You’d be shocked (I know I sure was) how many people DON’T follow elections, and can have a candidate “spun” to them.
How did they vote? I have no clue. But I’ll bet some did who would not have otherwise. And if you get enough people in precincts, the numbers add up.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:40 pm:
1. Can we stop debating whether Dem voters in CD 3 care about the Bush energy plan and drilling in the Arctic Wildlife refuge? Unless you have a poll which says differently, the answer is “Yes, overwhelmingly.”
2. I agree with Rich’s “The more, the merrier” analysis. Normally. But I disagree with him that Bennett and Capparelli have their own base - its pretty clear they are Lipinski shills - and unless they raise money, it doesn’t matter that they are on the ballot. I doubt they will be a factor.
3. Not mentioned during this debate is that Pera is raising money at a ferocious rate, raising more money than Lipinski in the most recent period.
4. This race is still Lipinski’s to lose, not Pera’s to win, but Lipinski’s doing a fine job.
5. Relying on precinct captains is a big mistake for Lipinski. Bill Lipinski was needed and feared, but never loved by the other players on the Southside. They all have much more to gain from a Pera victory than a Dan Lipinski victory. Like getting Lipinski out of the picture, and possibly putting their own candidate up in 2010.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:42 pm:
Oh yeah. Most importantly:
6. 35 Percent. According to Pera’s poll, that’s the percent of democratic primary voters who said in September that Lipinski should be re-elected.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 12:43 pm:
YDD, I’m gonna take issue with two statements.
===Pera is raising money at a ferocious rate===
Faster than Little Lip, but hardly “ferocious.”
===Like getting Lipinski out of the picture, and possibly putting their own candidate up in 2010.===
Once Pera is in, they’ll have to nuke him out. I think this is wrong. I think they’ll want to see him dinged enough to convince him not to run again.
- Rob_N - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 1:02 pm:
Rich, I’ll cede that point (on precinct ops). Like I said, we find out in two months.
But how strong is the “machine” in the close-in burbs, let alone how strong is it still in actual wards? It’s definitely much weaker than in the past.
- Anon - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 1:16 pm:
Rich I agree with both of your points at 12:43. I think little lip was only suppose to be in for 3 terms anyway. They need him hurting for 2010 but not dead yet. If Pera gets in you are right about nuking him out. And nobody wants to keep going through tough primaries. The interesting thing to watch here is what happens in the 11th and 19th wards.
- I Wrote In Krista Grimm - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 1:21 pm:
The expected presence of Reilly and Fritchey at that event is interesting.
- Anon - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 1:25 pm:
Rob N
Precinct workers count when the races are close. 4 to 7 % of the vote can be swayed. Doesn’t sound like much but that can easily turn a race. As far as the close-in burbs you are right. Most of these areas rely on transports from the city wards. Worth Township Dems have zip. Lyons township’s dem leader is having his own problems. Proviso is split amongst at least two groups. The only one with any decent organization is Sam Simone’s Palos Township.
- Oakparker - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 1:39 pm:
Concerning the Lipinski/Pera race. Pera may be raising more funds than Lipinski, but is he raising more than the ward and township organizations that are backing Lipinski have in their warchests?
As to precinct workers and election day. The ward and township organizations like to flood the precincts with workers on election day both to make sure their reliable voters come out and vote, and to try and influence whoever they can. They can (and are) beaten by strategies that identify opposition voters and get them out on election day. Many anti-organization campaigns (with money) use extensive phone canvassing to identify their voters, and have phone banks calling the identified voters and similar types of voters on election day. Does the Pera campaign have a sophisticated phone canvass in operation, and will they have serious get-out-the-vote operations (phone and/or volunteer) on election day? If they do, it could be interesting. If not, they are in big trouble.
- anon - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 1:56 pm:
“===Pera is raising money at a ferocious rate===”
“Faster than Little Lip, but hardly “ferocious.””
little lip has raised $304,000 as of 9/30.
aside from the $86,000 in loans, Pera has raised $154,000 as of 9/30. pretty decent for a challenger.
this’ll be very interesting to watch the year-end numbers.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 1:58 pm:
Anon, this is one of the most expensive media markets in the world. He’ll need a ton of cash to compete.
- Pat collins - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 1:58 pm:
expected presence of Reilly and Fritchey at that event is interesting.
Especially, since, if I can read a map, the Hon. Fritchey’s district is not even close to 3rd CD.
I guess we will see if there is any bite left in the machine. I can’t imagine a state rep doing that 20 years ago. Or even thinking of doing so.
- I Wrote In Krista Grimm - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 2:33 pm:
Pat: 20 years? I was thinking more like 2!
And I was around for both eras.
Something is up.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 2:52 pm:
Rich -
$100K raised in the third quarter, and ActBlue reports that Pera has already raised another $107K from over 1700+ donors through their website alone since then.
Pera’s receiving regular mention on DailyKos, driving his internet fundraising numbers. To put it in perspective, Melissa Bean has raised only $12K through ActBlue. Halvorson has raised just over $20K. Dan Seals has raised $221K, but that’s over 1.5 election cycles. Only Seals and Pera have broken into six figures. Maybe that’s not ferocious, maybe “ominous” is a better word.
2. Maybe they think they can “ding” Lipinski enough to convince him not to run again, but I don’t think his old man is going to give up the seat as long as he’s alive, making that a horrid strategy, and I don’t think anyone wants to challenge Big Lip one-on-one in 2010.
Shakespeare reminds us that it was the anonymous Publius Servilius Casca who drew first blood, not Brutus. Even 2000 years ago, they knew to have a shill.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 2:59 pm:
Oakparker -
1. Unless Obama tanks before Feb. 5th, which I don’t expect, precinct workers will have absolutely no effect on turnout. If Illinois first competitive Presidential Primary for as long as I can remember doesn’t turn them out, a precinct captain can’t.
2. High turnout probably hurts Lipinski.
3. Privately, most precinct captains will admit that they have very little influence over candidates at the top of the ticket - President, Governor, U.S. Senate, Congress. What they won’t admit even in private, but is equally true, is that they are not going to jeopardize their credibility trying to flip a Pera voter because they actually care much more about candidates at the bottom of the ticket than the top.
- M.V. - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 3:06 pm:
Those in the 3rd District should ask for a Green ballot in the primary and vote Jerry Pohlen for Congress
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 3:22 pm:
LOL!! Why M.V., does Pohlen have a hotly contested primary?
Greens in the 3rd CD are far better off voting for Obama for President and Pera for Congress in the Democratic Primary.
- Joe in the Know - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 3:22 pm:
“Those in the 3rd District should ask for a Green ballot in the primary and vote Jerry Pohlen for Congress”
Allow me to translate:
“Those in the 3rd District should ask for a Green ballot in the primary and throw away their vote thereby ensuring that Dan Lipinski walks unfettered back to Congress.”
- Oakparker - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 3:40 pm:
As to the Obama vote in the 3rd district.
Typically the ward and township organizations will distribute a sample ballot, which will list everyone they have endorsed up and down the ballot. They will also have a palm card and sample letter that will include just the key races they are concerned with. The palm card and letter will no doubt have Obama on top in big letters. It will then list the other critical races on the ballot (Lipinski, ward committeeman in Chicago, no doubt State’s Attorney in Cook County, and perhaps a local candidate for judge. The organizations’ phone callers and election day workers will also say on election day that that they are reminding people to vote for Obama and _________. (The regular voters of course will just vote the party’s sample ballot, or perhaps that of their union).
So, will Pera’s campaign have the ability to attach his name to that of Obama on election day in the back streets of the district?
PS It is interesting to read the list of candidates running as Obama delegates in the 3rd district. The two names I recognize are John Daley and someone in the Madigan family. They are not likely to be supporting Pera. (Outside of the lakefront, in many areas of Chicago and near Chicago the “machine” leaders are the Obama campaign.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 3:58 pm:
Oakparker:
Nothing prohibits Citizen Action from blanketing the 3rd CD in two feet of paper listing Obama and Pera as their endorsed candidates, as well as making phone calls or doing direct mail.
Your example explains just why township and ward organizations are so ineffective. Do you honestly think that voters memorize 10-20 endorsed candidates from a list? Better yet, how many voters who aren’t government employees actually open the letter from their committeeman? And finally, in what world does anyone really care who your delegates are?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 3:59 pm:
===Do you honestly think that voters memorize 10-20 endorsed candidates from a list? ===
Of course not. They take the list into the booth.
- Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 4:39 pm:
If Pera won the primary, could Lipenski do a Lieberman and run as an independent come Nov?
Or could the machine pull its support from Pera and run someone else as independent?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 4:41 pm:
===If Pera won the primary, could Lipenski do a Lieberman and run as an independent come Nov?===
No. You can’t run twice in Illinois if you lose the first round.
===Or could the machine pull its support from Pera and run someone else as independent?===
That didn’t work too well for the Solidarity Party.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 4:47 pm:
Rich -
Voters will take a palm card handed to them on election day into the booth, but they’re not likely to take a letter/palm card mailed to them two weeks out into the booth, which is what Oakparker is suggesting. Your average voter probably puts that one right in the trash, or sticks into a pile of other papers never to be seen again.
Again, a city worker who thinks her/his job depends on voting exactly how they’re told by their committeeman, and who still believes that their committeeman can tell how they vote, might fall for the old palm card in the mail trick, but its generally a waste of postage.
- Anonymous - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 4:56 pm:
rich - how come you take umbrage when someone uses ‘toddler’ to describe the inept cook county board prez (and you’re always warning people to stay away from the name calling) yet you refer to lipinski as ‘little lip’
also, from what i know, lipinski’s campaign is in anything but a panic. so to perpetuate that given the sources (pera’s campaign, people who want lipinski to go down), it probably isn’t fair.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 4:59 pm:
Good point. Your first point, anyway. I will refrain.
But your second point is off. I wouldn’t presume to know who my sources are in that congressional district if I were you.
- Anonymous - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 5:03 pm:
my guess that they’re not worried is that i haven’t heard or seen them refer to pera at all..no mail mentioning pera, no public responses referring to pera…they’re not going after him…
that’s probably not enough to base my assumption on (so you’re right in that regard), but its at least a little bit of campaign mgmnt 101: if you’re winning, don’t give your opponent any unnecessary publicity.
- Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 5:06 pm:
That didn’t work too well for the Solidarity Party.
Imagine a McCain Lieberman unity-ticket on the GOP side. McCain a guy with a lot of appeal I bet in a place like Il-3. Imagine an independent candidate running against Pera the Dem as a Lieberman style Democrat… just imagining of course.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 5:08 pm:
===they’re not going after him===
I wouldn’t expect to see any negative mail out of Lipinski slamming Pera until three or four weeks before primary day. Maybe two weeks.
- Snidely Whiplash - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 5:33 pm:
For Pera to win, he’d need a huge voter backlash against Dan Lipinski, along with a HUGE chunk of change to take the bulk of those anti-Lip votes away from the other 2 “challengers.” By “huge”, we’re talking a bare minimum of $750k.
Also, I find it interesting that all the “experts” have failed to account for the advantage of the “ski” at the end of Dan Lip’s name. That alone is worth a large number of votes in the Chicago and south-southwest suburban portion of the district, which has a very large Polish population; all other things being equal (or more likely, the voter walking into the booth knowing next to nothing about any of the candidates), ethnic voters will generally vote for his or her countryman.
- Wilmette Life - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 5:51 pm:
“Dan Seals Unemployed Again”
Its not a rumor — his new employer, the Point, has deleted Seals from the company web site and all posts.
- archpundit - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 6:06 pm:
—Maybe two weeks
And the eating babies picture 2 days out.
- Oakparker - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 8:25 pm:
Re Could Lipinski run as an independent if he loses the primary.
I recall that when Howard Caroll (spelling ?) lost his primary race to Jan Shakowsky, there was some talk that Caroll might run as an independent in the general election. In the event he did not. But his supporters, and evidently he himself, thought it would be legit.
- archpundit - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 8:38 pm:
There is a sore loser law in Illinois. If you are on the primary ballot for a race and lose, you cannot be on the general election ballot for that office.
And it’s a good law.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 3, 07 @ 9:35 pm:
Thanks, Larry, for reiterating what I already wrote.
Stop making up laws you think exist. :)