Last summer, House Speaker Michael Madigan was able to use his alliance with the House and Senate Republicans to thwart Gov. Rod Blagojevich and Senate President Emil Jones at almost every turn.
Whether it was the budget, or the governor’s health insurance expansion, or a multitude of other issues, Madigan and the Republicans were a solid team throughout the long overtime session.
This year, the Republicans have flipped on Madigan, allying with Gov. Blagojevich and Jones on the $34 billion capital construction package, funded by expanded casino gambling and by leasing the Illinois Lottery to a private company.
A few weeks ago, I overheard a conversation between Madigan and Senate Republican Leader Frank Watson. Sen. Watson had come to the House floor to lobby Madigan, yet again, on the capital bill, which would dump tons of cash into roads, bridges, schools and mass transit.
Nothing doing, Madigan said. “I don’t know how anyone could ever trust that guy,” he said of Blagojevich.
Watson and House Republican Leader Tom Cross continued to stick with Blagojevich despite Madigan’s argument that the governor will eventually double-cross them.
Right now, the only powerful political ally that Madigan has left is Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley.
Daley has turned thumbs down on the capital package because: 1) The price the city would have to pay for a casino license was way higher than what Daley agreed to; and 2) The governor inserted language giving himself control of all Chicago school construction projects against Daley’s wishes.
Madigan is under intense pressure from his allies in organized labor and from many of his fellow Democrats to approve the capital bill, but he has refused to budge. And as long as Mayor Daley is still not satisfied with the proposal then Madigan has more than enough political protection.
Meanwhile, some of my best inside sources confirm that Madigan’s daughter, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, is now leaning far more towards running for governor than she has in the past.
All of the above is why the semipublic mulling of a 2010 gubernatorial bid by Mayor Daley’s brother Bill Daley is so interesting to me. Whether or not Bill Daley ever decides to run for governor (and that’s a debatable point), he is right now currently testing the waters and gauging his support.
Speaker Madigan and Mayor Daley have argued and even split in the past, but the two men go way back, and it’s practically impossible to break them apart for long. Madigan views Richard J. Daley, the mayor’s father, as his second dad. Madigan and Daley are more than just political allies, they are almost like brothers. That means they occasionally fight each other hard, but they usually end up on the same side.
However, Bill Daley is a “real” mayoral brother. He’s an official member of the ruling family, not an unofficial member like Madigan.
What I’m trying to say here is that Speaker Madigan is facing a quite touchy situation. The possibility that the brother of Madigan’s only remaining ally in this fight to the political death with Gov. Blagojevich might end up on the opposite side of a primary race with his daughter, or even that he will continue openly mulling the decision for months, could very well complicate the speaker’s near future.
Now, most believe that some sort of arrangement will be worked out. But things could easily become complicated with a family situation like this. A few kind words from Mayor Daley about the capital plan, for instance, would send ripples throughout the state’s political establishment establishment and seriously undercut Speaker Madigan’s position, and possibly his daughter’s.
It can’t be said enough that Madigan cannot afford to lose Mayor Daley right now, just like Blagojevich can’t afford to lose his most powerful ally Senate President Jones. Without Daley, Madigan is friendless in his war with Blagojevich. Without Jones, Blagojevich is in the same friendless position in his war with Madigan.
Lately, I’ve gotten word from on-high that Jones has repeatedly urged state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias to run for governor in the 2010 election. Giannoulias is a vocal critic of Blagojevich, so if Jones moves his direction the governor could face unending problems.
Stay tuned for much fun, campers.
LIVE session coverage...
- Just wondering.... - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 8:29 am:
Rich - I am a total novice here - but could the Daley thing have anything to do with Madigan trying to make it look like this isn’t only about Lisa’s run for governor? In other words - could MJM be involved with the Daley testing of the waters??
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 8:31 am:
Highly doubtful.
- phocion - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 8:39 am:
Emil Jones would love to get Gianoulis in the 2010 Guv race, just to screw with Lisa. But let’s face it, Emil just wants a spoiler in the race. Jones is in way too deep with Blagojevich. If Alexi is foolish enough to believe Emil would really be there for him, he doesn’t deserve to be Governor.
- wordslinger - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 8:50 am:
Interesting.
I suspect after November, some grand compromise is in the offing. Right now, I think Bill Daley is alerting everyone that his interests will have to be considered.
Let’s presume that Bill Daley, Lisa Madigan and Tom Hynes all want to be governor. Once the smoke clears after the presidential, I suspect they’ll get together and present a united front. A primary that included any combination of the three would be disastrous. It’s the same base.
If Obama wins, there’s the senate seat, but that’s dependent upon Rod. But there will also be federal appointments. I suspect one big one could come from Illinois.
I could see Bill Daley as Secretary of Transportation, possibly Treasury. He would take that in an instant.
Lisa Madigan as U.S. Attorney General? It’s totally different from her current job, but she would be an attractive nominee to what should be a solidly Democratic senate. I suspect Hynes stays here, unless he gets the senate.
- BigDog - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 8:53 am:
So you’re saying Madigan is Tom Hagen?
- Bill - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 9:09 am:
I can almost hear Daley’s high pitched giggles and squeals of glee over the situation. If both Billy and Alexi run, Lisa won’t be the shoo in that she otherwise would be. At this point I don’t think anyone cares what Rod decides to do. That puts Little Dick in control.
- Ghost - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 9:29 am:
I don’t think Hynes runs against L Madigan. keep in mind Hynes is an attorney. So if L madigan runs for Gov, Hynes can run for the AG spot.
That just leaves Bill Daley. I doubt Bill Daley would want to be Lt. Gov, and Daley’s name is a hiderance for him downstate. L Madigan turned in some incredibly high numbers in her last election, drawing in many republicans. I think she crushes Daley if he runs against her. Keep in mind that many people in the State are very familiar with the name Lisa Madigan. Once you get away from the political junkies and the hardcore dems, L Madigan has very high name recognition through out the State.
- Levois - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 9:31 am:
WOW!!! That’s a lot of posturing. I wonder if Giannoulias being urged to run for governor is sort of a sign that Jones is tired of Blagojevich. I’m willing to bet that unlike 2006, the Democratic field is going to be tight!
- Captain America - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 9:45 am:
Who runs or gets appointed to which federal/state office is a genuine conumdrum. One can spin an endless number of scenarios. As a Democrat, I am pleased that we have such a tremendous pool of political talent chomping at the bit to move up the political chain - not to mention a good farm team of legislative talent eager to make credible runs for constitutional offices.
I think a lot of great “wannabees” may end up with federal cabinet or subcabinet positions in the Obama adminstration. The federal option is a nice safety valve that may serve to diminish the logjam.
I can honestly say that I wish Dan, Lisa, and Alexi all the best in terms of their political futures.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 9:56 am:
Folks need to remember that when voters show up in November, there is another political party to vote for. Events make things happen, and it is too easy to believe that Democrats will control things for generations in Illinois.
Illinois is in a very bad condition. Eventually voters will demand that those in charge find other work. There are reasons to believe that Illinois Democrats will find themselves looking back to 2008 and wondering what happened to them.
- Levois - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 10:17 am:
A generation gap as far a black politicians are concerned is an interesting premise for Washington’s column. Well I know it’s not just about that, it’s about how black voters might have a role in the next gubernatorial election. Still someone has to be out there ready to take a baby step and take over somewhere in the executive branch at least.
- Ghost - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 10:27 am:
VM right now the republicans seem to be charging into making sure the Dem’s keep power. STanding up to be counted with the most unpopular and untrustworthy gov in the US and IL history is not going to make them appear like an alternative. Anyone running on the Gov today is a problem can point to the repubs support of Blago on pushing to sell off the lottery and increase gamblins so that the State during a fiscal crisis could increase its spending by 34bill! The repubs come across as a big source of the problems by tossin support to the Gov when they should be opposing them. The repubs party at this point has set itself up to be counted as supporting pay to play and putting billions in the hands of a corrupt gov; the republicans have stood up to sell off a State asset for pennies on the dollar for a quick fix today at the expense of tomorrow; the repubs have stodd up to be counted with paying for pork projects using gambling which is built on the backs of the poor. The repubs can claim the State is in a mess, but its easy to show how tey helped to keep it messed up. If anything, the rpeubs have shown that we need to reduce their numbers if you want to stop the Gov and his crazy schemes to sell off the State and hinder the future.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 10:46 am:
Emil Jones is not playing Alexi Giannoulias to benefit Governor Blagojevich. He know the days are numbered for his candidate and he will be wearing a bulls eye on his back with any other Governor but the Treasurer. Giannoulias and Jones have close ties with Obama who, if he wins, will have tremendous power in Illinois.
Basically, Obama could tell Bill Daley not to run and make Giannoulias the favorite. MJM and Giannoulias already have a shaky relationship so it would be perfect for Jones.
Look for Lisa Madigan and Giannoulias to both run with Alexi narrowly winning with huge black support heavily influenced by President Obama’s endorsement and active campaigning.
And that is my Russ Stewart impersonation of the week.
- Bill - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 11:08 am:
Phineas,
Don’t buy the hype that Barack is held in high esteem by either Daley or Madigan. Sure they’re supporting him but only to get him out of Illinois. Obama’s Jackson connection and his ties to Alexi do not win him any friends in the Daley or Madigan camp. President Obama will not be a powerhouse in Illinois politics, at least not with Little Dick and Mikey Mouse.
- wordslinger - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 11:13 am:
A President Obama will have a lot more on his plate to worry about than Illinois politics.
Pingback School Daze « Division Street - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 12:01 pm:
[…] 14, 2008 · No Comments Found this nugget in a Rich Miller column about the political machinations behind the laggingcapital bill and gubernatorial politics: […]
- VanillaMan - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 12:35 pm:
==right now==
Just because something is “right now” doesn’t mean it will be “later”. At the point of every watershed political year is a new oppositional wave. Politics is a pendulum.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 12:37 pm:
You have to love Laura Washington as she writes about upcoming black candidates, “The younger aspirants aren’t ready. They are still struggling to mark their territory…”
I wonder who and where they are marking? Maybe some diligent reporter could sniff it out.
- irishpirate - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 12:51 pm:
Bill,
“President Obama will not be a powerhouse in Illinois politics, at least not with Little Dick and Mikey Mouse.”
What’s the name of the legislator who ran against the Obama backed Alexi? Ya know, the downstater Madigan supported? Obama was a powerhouse as a “mere” Senator imagine him as Prez.
If as seems likely Obama becomes Prez he may not spend much time thinking about Illinois politics, but all he has to do is make an endorsement and the “endorsee” will automatically become the odds on favorite for any statewide office.
I can see Obama endorsing Daley, Alexi, Lil’ Danny Hynes. I don’t see him endorsing L Madigan.
As for Daley endorsing Obama because he wants him out of Illinois I don’t buy that. Is Daley happy Obama won’t be running for mayor? Yep.
Is Daley looking forward to a President Obama supporting Chicago’s olympic bid. Yep. Is Daley expecting some goodies tossed Chicago’s way from our soon to be Prez Barry O’Bama. Why soitenly.
As for Madigan who was he going to support? Hillary Clinton. He didn’t jump on the Obama bandwagon as much as got run over bit it and is now running distantly alongside.
- Ghost - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 1:16 pm:
Irish I would not be to quick to assumen Obama is going to go against L madigan.
Obama is looking to shore up support with the Female electorate, support he will need this time around and again if he runs fo a second term.
- irishpirate - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 3:13 pm:
Ghost,
Female support or not I can’t see Obama endorsing anyone named Madigan unless the only other candidate running is named “Elvis”.
Perhaps Obama can make this easier. He appoints Blago as ambassador to Serbia. Added bonus I’m not sure they have an extradition treaty with the US. Hynes becomes Senator. Quinn gets to play Governor and then is appointed Secretary of Attention Deficit Disorder. Alexi becomes Ambassador to Greece. Daley becomes Governor.
- Ghost - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 3:50 pm:
Irish lets not forget he seemed far away from Helping out HRC a few weeks ago. The Clintons have drug him thorugh far deeper mud then any madigan, yet there he stands with check in hand to HRC campaign.
- wordslinger - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 9:48 pm:
To be clear: A President Obama won’t care about anything going on in Illinois politics.
That doesn’t mean some won’t claim his support. But an endorsement from him? Not a chance.
And that’s the way it should be. Big job for him if he gets it. I suspect we can handle it here.
- Anonymous - Monday, Jul 14, 08 @ 10:38 pm:
Wow. Good thing the Rs are doing so poorly right now so that there’s still a good chance that everyone on the D side will get a good chair when the music stops. Otherwise, if Rich is right, the Ds might wind up even more dysfunctional than the Rs are right now. (Are you paying attention, Andy?)
On the other hand, Rich, do you think there might be a possibility that it IS all worked out already? Is there a chance that some of this might be staging for a good show? Money isn’t going to be an issue for Democrats compared to Republicans, no matter what.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 15, 08 @ 12:45 am:
===Is there a chance that some of this might be staging for a good show? ===
No.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 15, 08 @ 6:29 pm:
Hmmmm…well then get ready for some “all-nighters” at the office! Intrigue at it’s finest.