* The Evans & Novak Political Report has moved Republican Congressman Mark Kirk’s race to “Leaning Democratic.” No explanation was offered.
ENPR has freshman Democrat Bill Foster’s race against Republican Jim Oberweis as “Leaning Democratic” as well as Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson’s contest against Republican Martin Ozinga.
* Mike Murray takes a look at the Oberweis vs. Foster race and finds Oberweis coming up short…
Independent groups have seen the writing on the wall, as $4.7 million was spent on the competitive special election. However, nothing has been has been spent for the fall rematch, a clear indicator that Foster is the favorite.
Perhaps the best indicator of Foster’s victory comes from Oberweis own pocketbook. In spite of his rhetoric, Oberweis has only contributed $475,000 to his fall campaign compared to the $2 million he shelled out for the special election.
* Adding to the GOP’s problems, early voting was huge in Illinois and election day may set a record…
Election officials counting ballots throughout Illinois say the state has set a new record of more than 821,000 early votes cast.
Authorities say that includes almost 484,000 early voters in Chicago and suburban Cook County.
The previous state high was set during the February primaries, when about 220,000 people voted.
Cook County Clerk David Orr says election judges alarmed by large crowds called fire marshals to several polling places Thursday.
Illinois election officials hope that record turnout in advance of the actual Election Day means shorter lines on Tuesday, when many expect turnout to be about 80 percent.
Still, there’s worry that many of the state’s remaining 6.9 million registered voters could clog the polls.
About 220,000 people cast ballots before Election Day in the February primaries in Illinois.
* But Steve Sauerberg bravely soldiers on, albeit in a boat aimlessly floating up the River Nile…
One poll of 800 likely voters released this week by Maryland-based Research 2000 found that [Democratic US Sen. Dick Durbin] had a 59 percent to 34 percent lead, 7 percent undecided. But Sauerberg is undaunted: “Our internal polls are not as bad as some other polls.'’
Operative phrase: “Not as bad.”
* PI has posted an excerpt from a CBS News report on veterans running for congress that features Illinois Democratic candidate Jill Morgenthaler…
* Walking precincts can be scary at times, or it could just involve navigating through a maze of Halloween decorations…
Life as a campaign foot soldier can be brutal.
Doors slammed in your face; shouting; aggressive dogs. And for April Wong Loi Sing, loud, scary Halloween prop noises.
That’s what the married mom of four and Marty Ozinga volunteer encountered Saturday morning after wading through a front yard of elaborate Halloween decorations, searching for a front door to knock on.
“The homeowner and I had a big laugh afterward,” she said, after a loud, high-pitched noise piped into the front yard had her screaming with shock and fright.
* Elections a miracle: Before you make fun of senior citizens who act as judges on Election Day, or anyone else who serves in that capacity, I suggest you take one of the training sessions offered free of charge by the office of Cook County Clerk David Orr. Those judges earn every doughnut they eat on Election Day.
Seals’ ground game has been weak and he has yet to articulate any coherent argument against Kirk that is moving voters signficantly. E&N may be have thought the last-minute Obama radio ad for Seals would be a game-changer but it’s low quality and only airing for a few drive time cycles. Meanwhile, Kirk is carpet bombing the airwaves with his sweep of every newspaper endorsement and has his veteran volunteer army out in force. Could it be that some DC insiders don’t actually have a good handle on what’s happening on the ground? Heaven forbid!
- Not a fair shake... - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 12:10 pm:
From a Republican perspective, there is good and bad news from the 14th. The bad is that Denny’s seat is gone, the good news is that hopefully, oh please good Lord, make the Milk Man go away politically!
- Chicago Election Judge - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 12:41 pm:
Thanks for the kind words for election judges. I’ll spend this afternoon doing the prep work for the polling place, the only way it is at all possible to be ready by 6am tomorrow. And I’ll get up at 4am tomorrow to be at the polling place at 4:45.
However, this is all in vain as long as the election judges in Cook County (and perhaps other places) can easily change the Paper Ballot votes. There are so many ways for the judges to alter the vote outcome it is too depressing to list them. In short, as long as judges can ever touch or even see the paper ballots once the voter has marked them, it is a hopeless process.
That’s why people like Stroger and Beavers are so self-assured in their political arrogance. They know that there is no way to prove that there is any voting fraud in their re-election.
Meanwhile, the officials who should be catching this are solely focused on Voter fraud –whether signatures match, etc. There is no reason to recruit illegal voters as long as you can control the votes of the legal voters.
===Walking precincts can be scary at times===
I was walking a precinct on Saturday and got nipped at by some nasty, little, mutant, mutt. Didn’t hit the skin but I almost kicked him like a Robbie Gould field goal. But I am disappointed in myself. I never made it all the way to the door. The little barker stood his ground.
It does seem pretty light blogging today. People must be gearing up for tomorrow. I am cutting out early today for some last minute campaigning for Halvorson and working a precinct all day tomorrow.
- ConservativeVeteran - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 2:47 pm:
I don’t agree with the U.S. Senate poll results: Durbin, 59%; Sauerberg, 34%; and undecided, 7%. At least 4% will vote for all of the other candidates, Chad Koppie, of the Constitution Party; Larry Stafford, a Libertarian; and Cathy Cummings, of the Green Party. I voted for Koppie. I knew that Sauerberg would lose by at least 15%. A republican politician, I know, said that Sauerberg is so liberal, he should have run as a Democrat.
I think if Kirk wins, he’ll immediately start running for governor. It looks like a long minority pull for the GOP in the House, so there’s really no joy in being there.
If he can win a tilting blues suburban district in Obama’s year, he might be what the state GOP is looking for, if they’re actually interested in winning statewide anymore.
As an American by choice, I beg to differ with the statement that if you don’t vote, you can’t complain. I am a voter and always have been. But as long as the government is taking citizens tax dollars and using them for things they don’t agree with, or don’t want them to do, even non-voters have a right to complain. People work hard for their paychecks, especially during these hard economic times and they can vent if they want to. After all they are the ones working for the dollars that the government uses and they don’t give it as a gift - they have no choice, no matter who is voted into office.
If Republicans think that Sauerberg is a liberal, they’re going to be out of office for a very, very long time. Another sign that the GOP is operating at an unprecedented level of delusion.
And unless they exit fantasyland and rejoin the real world, we can look forward to a future of more Blagojeviches on the Democratic side rather than fewer.
LIVE session coverage...
- Andrew Jackson - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 11:35 am:
Well, if Novak changed the rating on Kirk I would suspect an internal R poll? Look out below!
Or, maybe the fact that close to 60% of the early votes in IL-10 came from Dem primary voters.
Or McCain/Palin being in the crapper.
- adam smith - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 11:43 am:
Seals’ ground game has been weak and he has yet to articulate any coherent argument against Kirk that is moving voters signficantly. E&N may be have thought the last-minute Obama radio ad for Seals would be a game-changer but it’s low quality and only airing for a few drive time cycles. Meanwhile, Kirk is carpet bombing the airwaves with his sweep of every newspaper endorsement and has his veteran volunteer army out in force. Could it be that some DC insiders don’t actually have a good handle on what’s happening on the ground? Heaven forbid!
- Not a fair shake... - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 12:10 pm:
From a Republican perspective, there is good and bad news from the 14th. The bad is that Denny’s seat is gone, the good news is that hopefully, oh please good Lord, make the Milk Man go away politically!
- Chicago Election Judge - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 12:41 pm:
Thanks for the kind words for election judges. I’ll spend this afternoon doing the prep work for the polling place, the only way it is at all possible to be ready by 6am tomorrow. And I’ll get up at 4am tomorrow to be at the polling place at 4:45.
However, this is all in vain as long as the election judges in Cook County (and perhaps other places) can easily change the Paper Ballot votes. There are so many ways for the judges to alter the vote outcome it is too depressing to list them. In short, as long as judges can ever touch or even see the paper ballots once the voter has marked them, it is a hopeless process.
That’s why people like Stroger and Beavers are so self-assured in their political arrogance. They know that there is no way to prove that there is any voting fraud in their re-election.
Meanwhile, the officials who should be catching this are solely focused on Voter fraud –whether signatures match, etc. There is no reason to recruit illegal voters as long as you can control the votes of the legal voters.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 1:12 pm:
Anyone get the feeling that many of our commenters are walking precincts today?
- Been There - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 1:55 pm:
===Walking precincts can be scary at times===
I was walking a precinct on Saturday and got nipped at by some nasty, little, mutant, mutt. Didn’t hit the skin but I almost kicked him like a Robbie Gould field goal. But I am disappointed in myself. I never made it all the way to the door. The little barker stood his ground.
It does seem pretty light blogging today. People must be gearing up for tomorrow. I am cutting out early today for some last minute campaigning for Halvorson and working a precinct all day tomorrow.
- ConservativeVeteran - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 2:47 pm:
I don’t agree with the U.S. Senate poll results: Durbin, 59%; Sauerberg, 34%; and undecided, 7%. At least 4% will vote for all of the other candidates, Chad Koppie, of the Constitution Party; Larry Stafford, a Libertarian; and Cathy Cummings, of the Green Party. I voted for Koppie. I knew that Sauerberg would lose by at least 15%. A republican politician, I know, said that Sauerberg is so liberal, he should have run as a Democrat.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 3:22 pm:
===A republican politician, I know, said that Sauerberg is so liberal, he should have run as a Democrat. ===
He sure ain’t showing it.
- wordslinger - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 5:15 pm:
I think if Kirk wins, he’ll immediately start running for governor. It looks like a long minority pull for the GOP in the House, so there’s really no joy in being there.
If he can win a tilting blues suburban district in Obama’s year, he might be what the state GOP is looking for, if they’re actually interested in winning statewide anymore.
- Disgusted - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 7:53 pm:
As an American by choice, I beg to differ with the statement that if you don’t vote, you can’t complain. I am a voter and always have been. But as long as the government is taking citizens tax dollars and using them for things they don’t agree with, or don’t want them to do, even non-voters have a right to complain. People work hard for their paychecks, especially during these hard economic times and they can vent if they want to. After all they are the ones working for the dollars that the government uses and they don’t give it as a gift - they have no choice, no matter who is voted into office.
- Angry Chicagoan - Monday, Nov 3, 08 @ 7:56 pm:
If Republicans think that Sauerberg is a liberal, they’re going to be out of office for a very, very long time. Another sign that the GOP is operating at an unprecedented level of delusion.
And unless they exit fantasyland and rejoin the real world, we can look forward to a future of more Blagojeviches on the Democratic side rather than fewer.