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Saturday Update: 5th CD poll results and other news

Saturday, Jan 31, 2009

* 5th Congressional District Democratic underdog Paul Bryar has released a a poll taken earlier this month which shows himself at 0 percent support. I’ve never seen a candidate do that before now. If you think it’s odd, you’re right.

The point, however, is after the respondents are informed of various candidate stances Bryar ends up with 15 percent, “within striking distance” of the other frontrunners, according to the campaign, which claims to have raised well over $200,000 so far. More on that later this week.

* The poll of 401 likely voters was taken Jan. 14-15 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.89 percent. This is a Fako Associates poll, so it’s a good one.

However, the poll was conducted before Justin Oberman dropped out of the race, so it’s not nearly as useful as it could be for our purposes. Also, Oberman’s numbers are far different than the results he got in Mike Quigley’s poll.

* Here are the initial head-to-heads, with Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley’s poll numbers from Jan. 8-13 in parentheses…

Quigley - 15 (14)
Feigenholtz - 12 (10)
O’Connor - 11 (8)
Oberman - 1 (2) [Dropped out]
Fritchey - 6 (7)
Annunzio - 5
Geoghegan - 4
Wheelan - 1
Forys - 1
Bryar 0
Other - 3
Undecided - 39

* Respondents were also read position statements for all candidates, with half hearing one Bryar message and half hearing another. The messages were not revealed, and only one of the halves was shared in the polling memo. These results have a +/- 6.91% margin of error…

Quigley - 20
Feigenholtz - 17
Bryar - 15
Fritchey - 10
Oberman - 10 [Dropped out]
Geoghegan - 9
Wheelan - 4
Other - 2
Undecided - 13

Notice, however, that Ald. Pat O’Connor doesn’t seem to be included in this round. Kinda weird.

* From the Fako polling memo…

Quigley (59% Name ID), Feigenholtz (41%), O’Connor (55%) and Fritchey (41%) hold only modest levels of name recognition. Their recognition is not deep or intense, with most of their ratings derived from soft, passive responses.

Their ratings are driven by geography. Their name ID and ratings diminish outside of their home areas, keeping a significant share of the vote up for grabs. […]

40% of the electorate is undecided, which is concentrated in the NW, outhern and suburban areas, all outside the more established candidates’ home bases.

Regional support can be seen in a graph from the polling memo by clicking here.

* Meanwhile, Mike Quigley’s first mailer went out this week. It features the Forrest Claypool endorsement and highlights Quigley’s battles against Cook County Board President Todd Stroger. Click on the pics for larger images…

* And Democrat Charlie Wheelan has a new and visually striking campaign ad…

…Adding… The ad will barely run on TV. $1500 on the news on Super Sunday, and then $6K on cable for one week, according to a rival campaign.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

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