1. - laborguy - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 5:29 pm:

   $250,000 on tv plus the $25,000 in phone calls you qwrote about this morning. Sounds like SEIU is making a jajor commitment to this race. I can’t imagine they are doing phone and not doing a field program also. This tv buy should free Sarah up to do more with her own tv buy. It will be interesting to watch the campaign chess moves from here on out.




2. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 5:43 pm:

   Any bets on whether this is a contrast ad, positive spot, or negative ad?

   I’m betting a contrast ad that contrasts Feigenholtz, Fritchey and Quigley on health care.




3. - bored now - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 5:47 pm:

   i’d be shocked if it wasn’t a negative or contrasting ad…




4. - Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 5:56 pm:

   Then you may be shocked.

   Let’s all wait a bit. We’ll all know soon enough.




5. - Bill - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 5:59 pm:

   I hope they let jerry write the script for the ad. Wow, $250k+ of rank and file dues for a 1 1/2 year term in Congress. I wonder what the workers think of that. Whatever happened to more for organizing, less for politics?




6. - downhereforyears - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:09 pm:

   The whole idea of unions or business buying ads is what Quinn is trying to stop….it makes me sick. I’m a new Quinn supporter.




7. - Bill - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:16 pm:

   Yeah,well, if Quinn is trying to stop that, which I doubt now that he is in the money seat, he won’t get very far.
   Besides, Quinn doesn’t have anything to do or say about a federal race.
   The independent expenditure loophole should definitely be closed.




8. - wordslinger - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:16 pm:

   Quinn can’t do anything about federal elections.




9. - jerr morrison - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:17 pm:

   Hey Bill, it is an IE. I can’t write the script, but I have written lots of mail, radio and tv ad scripts over the years. I had many congressional clients in my consulting days. Anyone ever pay you to write an ad for them? I didn’t think so.




10. - jerry morrison - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:21 pm:

    Rich, I hope you plan on apologizing when you see the ad.




11. - jerry morrison - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:26 pm:

    Sorry Rich. I didn’t follow the thread correctly. I think you are right. It will give Sarah a lot of flexibility with her final week of ads though.




12. - ZC - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:32 pm:

    Not sure what you mean by loophole Bill. _Buckley v. Valeo_ is very clear that a truly independent expenditure cannot be curtailed, constitutionally. You’d need a new Supreme Court to close that.

    Whether this is a smart move by SEIU or a wise use of its member dues is one thing (I’m leaning towards nay, as well). But outside orgzs have the right to speak their piece. It’s a free First Amendment country.




13. - Bill - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:38 pm:

    ZC,
    I know, but it doesn’t seem fair to curtail individuals and some groups while, at the same time, allowing large national organizations to spend unlimited funds.
    As far as how independent their expenditures have been, I’ll leave that for the election authorities and lawyers.




14. - jerry morrison - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:40 pm:

    ZC, you are absolutely right about the IE piece but what is this about what is right for SEIU members. How do ,you know what is good for our members? Healchcare is the number one issue with my members and Sarah would be a strong advocate for healthcare not just a good vote. You know nothing about the members I represent so try not to speculate about what is in their political interest or not.




15. - Windy Cityzen - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 7:03 pm:

    Maybe Quigley is trying to get some of Sara’s big $$$: http://davidormsby.wordpress.com/2009/02/23/is-quigley-fundraising-off-feigenholtzs-federal-election-commission-report/

    And the news gets better for Mike: http://publicaffairs2point0.wordpress.com/2009/02/23/quigley-healthcare/




16. - OneMan - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 8:14 pm:

    Media guy…
    A big media spend is not a guarantee that you are going to win, trust me.




17. - chipolcon - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 8:17 pm:

    It certainly doesn’t hurt your chances though.




18. - bored now - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 8:40 pm:

    hmmm, i don’t usually think of seiu as profligate, so i wouldn’t think they would dump a quarter mill if this race was over…




19. - Bill - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 9:14 pm:

    In Chicago, in a short race with no interest, I’ll still take shoe leather over TV. They are spending hundreds of thousands because they know they could be in big trouble…and by the way media guy, she hasn’t ever been ahead in anything except in raising out of district money.




20. - chipolcon - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 9:26 pm:

    Bill, who do you think is going to win this thing?




21. - fedup dem - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 9:28 pm:

    ZC, I definately think the ad buy is a dumb idea by SEIU. The health care issue may have a little impact along the lakefront, where Feigenholtz is scrambling for significant votes among a number of her opponents (including Quigley, Geoghegan and Fritchey). In the western half of the district, the sound you hear is that of the ad buy money being flushed down the toilet, for all the good it will do Feigenholtz in places like the 36th, 38th, 41st and 45th Wards.




22. - OneMan - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 9:28 pm:

    It’s a safe democratic seat, all of the major candidates are generally pro-labor, why would they spend 250K on a primary in this case?

    Is she really going to be that much of a better congrescritter than Fritchey or any of the other serious candidates?




23. - Bill - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 9:32 pm:

    OneMan,
    The inmates are in charge if the SEIU asylum.




24. - The Shadow of a Pigeon the Starved to Death - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 9:35 pm:

    Is Daley behind this to hurt Fritchey?




25. - Bill - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 9:36 pm:

    …and its not their money.




26. - OneMan - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 9:39 pm:

    Then again as a Republican I would rather they spend their money in primaries like this.. :-)

    Also seems to have the potential for a little bad PR for SEIU, members out of work and they are spending dues on a special primary for a safe Democratic seat.




27. - Nsider - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 10:02 pm:

    If she were ahead, nobody would need to dump another $250,000 into buying her more name id. The reality is — she’s not ahead and she doesn’t have the field game Fritchey or O’Connor have available — as limited as that might be in this day and age. But let’s not forget O’Connor is quietly running a ground game. You remember O’Connor…the 25 year alderman with the great Irish name.




28. - jerry morrison - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 10:05 pm:

    You guys all have a lot of great political advice for me. First things first, the $250,000 ad buy is an independent expenditure not from dues money but from political contributions made by SEIU members across the country. So, infact, the members give this money knowing full well, actually expecting, that it is spent on campaigns at the federal level.

    Second, Sarah Feigenholtz has been, and will continue to be, a vocal advocate for healthcare. That is critically important as we enter the fight for national healthcare.

    Third, these candidates do not have the same voting records. Take John Fritchey for example, he killed a bill that would have closed loopholes for the payday loan industry while at the same time taking political contributions from that industry and while being a paid lobbyist for them. He even took a $5,000 contribution from a leading payday loan industry PAC for his congressional campaign. Now John may not have done anything illegal, but he certainly does not have the profile of the type of person we should be sending to Congress to help regulate, monitor and rejuvenate the American financial industry.

    Last but not least, the Illinois SEIU leadership has built the union into the largest, most effective labor union in the state of Illinois. Much of that success is based on the union’s political activity at every level of government. I would argue that they have a much better idea of how to spend their political dollars than any of the bloggers at this site. Good luck and goodnight fellas.




29. - Victor - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 10:11 pm:

    Mayor Daley has his own pain today called OHare.
    At least Daley is not (allegedly) running around stop signs and smashing cars or worried about his next mansion to rezone in the district.




30. - jerry morrison - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 10:13 pm:

    What you guys need to get your minds around is that this is now a two-person race. John Fritchey cannot win no matter what he does. It is between Mike Quigley and Sarh Feigenholtz. You can speculate all you want. I have seen the quantative and qualitative data. I would love to make a few gentlemanly bets if there are any takers. You know where to find me.




31. - jerry morrison - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 10:17 pm:

    How about you Bill? You always talk a good game.




32. - JonShibleyFan - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 11:07 pm:

    Media Guy,

    Do you have numbers to back that up? First to do X, Y or Z is not how one traditionally measures “ahead” in a political campaign. As to her “frontrunner from day one,” status…only in raising funds is that demonstrably true.

    Unless you have some polling numbers…




33. - Larry Kiljian - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 11:07 pm:

    Jerry Morrison is writing the script. Sara’s opponents will link him to Blagojevich.




34. - bored now - Tuesday, Feb 24, 09 @ 5:08 am:

    according to her own numbers, she hasn’t been first in voter contacts (which was rather surprising, given the size of her staff)…




35. - NewDay - Tuesday, Feb 24, 09 @ 6:15 am:

    LK- Spot on lad! SEIU was Blagojevich’s union, remember the back room dealings on landing Hot Rod a foundation board position?




36. - bored now - Tuesday, Feb 24, 09 @ 6:48 am:

    reading over the thread from last night, i assume jerry was reading my post when he asked rich to apologize. you might hold rich to a different standard, but i don’t see any reason (for me) to apologize for thinking that a third party IE this large would be for negative advertising. it’s a common practice and makes a lot of strategic sense.

    as for the speculation that this race is between sara and mike, that remains to be seen. what we do know is this: early voting returns have been the strongest where one would expect fritchey to be the strongest. i understand the desire to spin this, but my original expectation that this would devolve into a two-person race has changed. one smart campaign manager is already thinking about the recount. i wouldn’t be surprised if the result was that close…




37. - Bill - Tuesday, Feb 24, 09 @ 7:25 am:

    ==You always talk a good game.==
    No Jerry,
    Actually,I play a good game. As for my prediction, Chipolcon, it will be Fritchey or Quigley, too close to call right now, but Fritchey has the better ground game. Sara third.
    I’m surprised to hear that health care is the number 1 priority for Jerry’s kids. Wouldn’t a real union try to negotiate those benefits from management instead of trying to play big wheel in the national political arena. It also might help if their “union” would negotiate adequate salaries to pay for health insurance. As for no dues money being used, if you believe that I’ve got an out of touch, lefty congressional candidate from the lakeshore to sell you.




38. - ZC - Tuesday, Feb 24, 09 @ 7:55 am:

    Thanks Jerry for clearing up one thing I was wondering about; I don’t think it _can_ be dues money, legally speaking. That sounds like it would fall under the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act’s definition of an “electioneering communication”, 30 days before a primary. And the law is clear (for now) that union dues aren’t to be used within that window.

    I agree that there’s less of an issue when it’s PAC funds on this ad than when it’s member dues. If you’re a union member and you give to the political fund, what else is it supposed to be used for, besides helping to elect candidates?




39. - Becky C. - Tuesday, Feb 24, 09 @ 8:07 am:

    I wonder if Sara’s ad will still be touting all her women’s endorsements, now that she has taken a maximum donation from Mr. Blair Hull, Wife Abuser?

    PS: Mr. Morrison, if you care about this race, you should really learn how to spell the candidate’s name.




40. - jerry morrison - Tuesday, Feb 24, 09 @ 8:32 am:

    Hey Bill, is referring to SEIU members as “Jerry’s kids” supposed to be humorous becasue it isn’t? I can care less what any of you people think of me personally, but I am disturbed by a recurring theme I see in many of the comments here at Cap Fax Blog. For some reason, some of you seem to find it necessary to denegrate SEIU members as somehow less than “real” union members. I hear this same thing over and over again here and you need to know how it makes you sound, and that is racist. As you know SEIU is made up of more women and minorities than any other union in the nation. When you make jokes about my members by referring to them as “Jerry’s Kids” or that they aren’t “real” union members you are making a fundamentally racist argument, so please stop. Your arguments are offensive and only demonstrate your ignornace.

    Second, there have been a lot of comments here about how little my members make and the nature of their benefits. Once again, your characterization of SEIU members is extremely offensive. We are very proud of the contracts we have won for our members over the years. Perhaps you just aren’t aware that many SEIU members are newly organized and in their first or second contracts. Despite this, we have gotten thousands of workers 30% and 40% raises and health insurance in many cases. Obviously, there is a lot of work to be done yet but when you are organizing the unorganized, especially in the service sector, you are talking about classes of workers that started out with relatively low wages and benefits to begin with. Unfortunately, SEIU is one of the few unions in the country organizing any new members, let alone organizing in the very difficult sectors of the economy that we typically organize in. So, please feel free to debate SEIU’s political program and how it conducts its business in the public realm but keep your racist comments about SEIU members to yourself. I would guess I am not the only one that has been offended by your comments recently. Thanks.




41. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 24, 09 @ 8:42 am:

    ===you are making a fundamentally racist argument===

    Considering the identity of some of the people who are making this argument, that is probably way off the mark, Jerry. We’ve talked about this before. Please, take a breath.

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