SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
5th CD roundup

Friday, Feb 27, 2009

* My Sun-Times column today takes a look at the 5th Congressional District race. You only get 600 words in the CS-T, so it’s not as complete as I would’ve liked…

Almost nobody wants to make a prediction about the 5th Congressional District special election this coming Tuesday.

A crowded field, very high numbers of undecided voters, a lack of news coverage (particularly by the TV stations) and the fact that none of the candidates has really caught fire all add up to puzzlement for handicappers.

The guesstimates I’m getting from the campaigns have Democratic turnout at between 35,000 and 40,000 — about a quarter to a third of those who voted in the last primary. Somebody could win with as few as 10 thousand or 12 thousand votes. So you can make a case for any number of candidates.

Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley started the race way ahead in the polls, and he’s still at or near the top. That means he’ll do well with people who believe it’s their duty to vote in every election but are still vague about their final choice. He has a loyal cadre of workers, and his campaign believes they have identified more than enough supporters to win. They just have to get them to the polls.

State Rep. Sara Feigenholtz has spent the most money by far, both on her own and through huge independent expenditures on her behalf by the Service Employees International Union and EMILY’s List. Women often tend to vote for women, and women dominate Democratic primaries. Feigenholtz’s campaign has been almost purely targeted at female voters, so she’ll get lots of votes from undecided women. Feigenholtz also has a big field operation and enthusiastic support in the gay community.

Like Quigley and Feigenholtz, state Rep. John Fritchey’s base is in the eastern end of the district near the lake. But Fritchey also has the backing of ward and township organizations that control more than half the precincts in the district. Yeah, the Machine ain’t what it used to be, and there are still questions about how hard some of these committeemen want to work, but the reality is that if each of his precinct captains secures 30 to 50 voters, then Fritchey wins this thing.

I’m not posting the whole thing because we’ve got other stuff to post, so go read it all here.

* Let’s get back to the new Feigenholtz TV ad that set off a firestorm in comments today.

Last year, any Democratic legislative candidate who was directly tied to either Rod Blagojevich or Todd Stroger was toast. The Republicans played the Rod & Todd card in several races, but it didn’t work all that well unless there was a definable connection, like fundraising, jobs or contracts.

So, any TV ad that draws a direct line between a candidate and Stroger is potentially a deal-breaker for voters. That’s one reason why this thing has caused such an uproar.

With that in mind, let’s watch it again…


Does it work? Remember, though, that Quigley has been running a TV ad and direct mail trashing Todd Stroger, most likely in an attempt to inoculate himself from just such an attack.

The Quigley campaign estimates that Feigenholtz only has 270 ratings points behind this latest attack, spread out over last night, through the weekend and part of Tuesday. That ain’t much.

But Quigley did go all-out today in an attempt to turn the tables

QUIGLEY: This is Sara Nixon. The 11th hour, when its much harder to combat an unfair charge, that’s when you do this, because you know there’s limited ability — frankly, there’s been limited coverage of this campaign and there’s limited interest, just because it’s a special election. So that’s hard to overcome.

This is a swift boat attack. You attack somebody at their greatest strength and you do it at the last hour because you know its much tougher to retaliate and defend yourself.

Then again, this morning’s presser might just bring far more attention to the whole thing.

* Meanwhile, Pat O’Connor has raised a few more dollars, but he’s still close to the bottom and a mailer has gotten him into a spot of trouble

Is Mayor Daley’s “unofficial floor leader” claiming “unofficial endorsements” from Rahm Emanuel and Sen. Dick Durbin?

No, no, no, Ald. Patrick O’Connor (40th) is not trying to imply any endorsement by Durbin or Emanuel — the man he hopes to replace in Congress — by running their photos and testimonials in his campaign literature, a spokesman said.

According to the above article, Emanuel’s office also denies that it’s endorsing Rep. Feigenholtz, even though there’s a Feigenholtz yard sign in front of the guy’s house. Still, that certainly sends a message to the neighborhood, if nothing else.

* Related…

* Every Vote Counts in Crowded Primary for Emanuel’s House Seat

* The (Jan) Donatelli Interview

* The (John) Fritchey Interview

* Conason Backs Geoghegan, Forys Loans Himself $40K

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - Been There - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 2:02 pm:

    ===even though there’s a Feigenholtz yard sign in front of the guy’s house===
    The “guy” is married. I know there have been quite a few primaries that my wife and I have not agreed on the candidates. Not sure if we ever canceled each other out with yard signs, as I am usually am the one putting them up, but I know we have cancelled each other out in the voting booth.


  2. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 2:04 pm:

    Comparing Feigenholtz to Richard Nixon? That’s going to go over well. Rich, I think you’re right. I think Quigley just guaranteed this story plays on tonight’s news.

    By the way, Claypool might want to be careful about quotes like these:

    “I’ve worked with Mike Quigley as a colleague on the county board for 7 years. No one — and I mean no one — has stood up to todd stroger more than him.”

    Quigley just might use that in his next race for County Board President, Forrest.

    The irony here, of course, is that unlike Quigley, who DID help run Stroger’s campaign, Forrest Claypool took alot of heat for refusing to endorse Stroger.


  3. - Scooby - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 2:11 pm:

    There’s going to be a bad story on the news on Friday night? Sound like you’ve got them right where you want them.


  4. - Five Thousand West - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 2:12 pm:

    It is incredible how nutty, personal and vicious the Feigenholtz and Quigley campaigns, staff and supporters have become.

    It’s not just here on the blog. I have been accosted at the train stop too. When I stated my support for another candidate the Quigleyite argued with me. Dumb.

    This race is absolutely unpredictable. I do not know who is going to win. But i do know that as a Fritchey supporter I am proud of the positive way he has conducted himself, and how his staff has stayed above the petty fray, throughout this campaign.


  5. - ElectMike - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 2:33 pm:

    Capparelli called attention to HR91 in 2005 when Fritchey did NOT support the Pledge in schools on the Geoff Pinkus Show on WIND early this morning.


  6. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 2:35 pm:

    5000 West -

    I like Fritchey too, even though I’m supporting Feigenholtz, but neither he nor his supporters have been “above the fray”, although I will give Fritchey’s campaign credit for toning down the negative attacks in the final weeks of the campaign.

    Sounds like your experience with the Quigley campaign is about the same as mine: if you’re not supporting Quigley, you’re either stupid, crooked, a traitor, or some combination of the three.


  7. - ElectMike - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 2:55 pm:

    Why would two prominent Republicans back Fritchey? Saviano and Silvestri just did. Both signed a letter that was received today throughout Leydon Township. Apparently they could not find a Republican to back even though there are six to choose from. Of course everybody knows this is an inside job and they are part of the Banks clan. Maybe Saviano and Silvestri should change coats and become Democrats but here’s my take and it is Saviano should resign as Chairman of the House Republicans. This is an idiotic move on his part. Republicans should remove him as he has no business as Chairman if he can’t support the party. Silvestri is a better fit in Lakeview. I am surprised some enterprising writer like Kass or Brown did not pick this up.


  8. - Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 3:03 pm:

    ElectMike, that township GOP organization has supported every Democratic nominee going back to Rostenkowski. This isn’t new.


  9. - ElectMike - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 3:12 pm:

    Rich, that may be true but is no near being right. That whole crew there are not very straight up and everybody knows that. I still hold my ground that Saviano should resign as Chairman of the HRO if he can’t back one of his own.


  10. - Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 3:16 pm:

    Fine. Stand by it. You’re spitting into the wind because nobody is gonna care or be surprised, but go ahead.


  11. - Cynic - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 3:36 pm:

    @ RM - “Fine. Stand by it. You’re spitting into the wind because nobody is gonna care or be surprised, but go ahead.”

    Is it just me or have you been more ornery than usual lately?

    Mind you, I’m not complainin’. It’s your sandbox so you get to run it as you see fit.


  12. - Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 3:39 pm:

    ===Is it just me or have you been more ornery than usual lately?===

    Probably.

    2 months of Rod drama, 2 months of Roland drama, a new governor, a new senate president, a ginormous deficit, a special election, session and cranky commenters.

    Not making excuses, but I just decided after drawing up that list that I’m gonna sleep all weekend.


  13. - Cynic - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 3:58 pm:

    @ RM –

    You’ve had a busy couple of months. You’ve earned your rest.


  14. - Laborguy - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 4:00 pm:

    I think this race is breaking as we speak. Sara’s massive communications advanatge appears to be kicking in. Over the last several days our id’s for Sara have shot through the roof. If these numbers hold she should pull this off, as long as turnout is reasonable. No way Fritchey can win. This is clearly a two-person race with Sara now pulling ahead. Mark my words boys and girls. You heard it from Laborguy first on CapFaxBlog.


  15. - ElectMike - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 4:04 pm:

    Rich, you go rest. Maybe Kass, Sneed, Brown or someone can take this story abity further. I think it would be good reading regardless if you are pro or con about the development.


  16. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 4:11 pm:

    ElectMike, go with Sneed.

    Breathlessly reporting the obvious and expected (usually days after the fact) is right up her alley.

    Get it? Forget it.


  17. - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 27, 09 @ 7:43 pm:

    The ad is a wash. Many will interpret it as “two wrongs do not make a right”.

    Stroger endorsement and other comments are bad, but for older, single Moms (who struggled to pay for their kids’ healthcare) and families now strugging to keep THEIR kids above water, they HATE being placed in a position to say that they’re not sure about the “healthcare for kids” accomplishment–especially with the economy tanking and results becoming more clearly evident.


  18. - SEIU Vol - Saturday, Feb 28, 09 @ 6:36 pm:

    SEIU is doing all we can to help Sara! We’ve got a lot of boots on the ground. SEIU vs. THE MACHINE. Its going to be close.


  19. - the ole precinct captain - Saturday, Feb 28, 09 @ 8:09 pm:

    Thw winner will be the one who gets his base out. This favors either O’Connor or Frichey who have organization backing. A big push in a few wards may make the difference. Since we are supposed to make a prediction I’ll pick O’Connor due to strong turnout in the 39th and 40th wards. This also expects all other candidates to cut each other to pieces everywhere else. We’ll see on Tuesday.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* McKinney resigns from Sun-Times: "I’m convinced this newspaper no longer has the backs of reporters like me"
* Another one pops
* Reality vs. reporting
* New anti-Rauner theme: "Wolf of Winnetka"
* Redefining Bobby
* Pat and Bruce
* The lindane file
* US judge orders hiring monitor at IDOT
* Underdog endorsements
* Birth control, millionaires and the minimum wage
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Apple iPad Air 2, iPad mini 3 now available in Apple Stores
        * Here’s what the Galaxy Note 4 camera can do
        * Olloclip Debuts New 4-in-1 Photo Lens for iPhone 6 and 6 Plus
        * Philips quad HD I966 Aurora handset has us a little jealous
        * Some Bank of America customers double-charged with Apple Pay
        * Are your jeans ruining your iPhone 6?
        * Apple Pay’s First TV Ad Is A World Series Spot From MasterCard And MLB

        * Metamorphosis
        * Play with Digital Paper with These Android 5.0 Wallpapers
        * People will build their connected home bit by bit, but tools like SmartThings can speed adoption
        * Yelp Stock Tumbles on Weak Q4 Outlook
        * Watch Out for Suspicious Microsoft Office Files--It Could Be Malware
        * AT&T Touts Customer Gains, but Earnings Miss Estimates
        * Re/code’s Excellent Google Inbox Adventure

        * 23 potential MLB free agents as SkyMall items
        * World Series Game 1: Notes and discussion
        * The e-gus off-season plan
        * Reading Room: A wild card of a World Series
        * Following same path as '59 White Sox, KC eyes title
        * larry's Offseason Plan
        * Abreu wins Sporting News' AL Rookie of the Year honors


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Federal judge deals Quinn ethics blow on IDOT p.....
        * Judge orders monitor in IDOT political hiring l.....
        * Emanuel to name former Preckwinkle administrati.....
        * Givemeliberty - Quinn, Rauner spar over jobs an.....
        * Editor defends Sun-Times after reporter quits..
        * Vice President Biden in Vernon Hills for Democr.....
        * Prospect Heights man killed in motorcycle crash.....
        * Child who arrived at O'Hare feeling sick being .....
        * Reporter resigns following Rauner complaint..
        * Vice President Joe Biden to return to Illinois..


        * VP says Democrats working to protect middle class
        * Former Illini coaches speak at McClain's funeral
        * Editor defends Sun-Times after reporter quits
        * Reporter resigns following Rauner complaint
        * Court-appointed monitor ordered for IDOT hiring
        * Man suspected of killing 7 refuses to answer judge
        * Incoming Chicago archbishop won't live in mansion
        * Chicago Bears Chairman speaks to DeKalb students
        * Judge imposes gag order in Indiana slayings case
        * Chicago hospitalizes 2 air travelers from Liberia

        * Sun-Times political reporter resigns following Rauner complaint
        * Minimum wage hike supporters urge early voting
        * Federal judge orders court-appointed monitor for IDOT hiring
        * Rep. Raymond Poe to undergo stem cell transplant
        * Bill Clinton campaigns for Quinn, Durbin
        * Quinn, Rauner spar over jobs, taxes
        * Election 2014: Learn about all the candidates
        * What to watch for in third governor debate tonight
        * U of I sees turning point as election nears
        * Chicago Sun-Times endorses Rauner for governor

        * Ebola? Biz travelers say 'meh'
        * Sun-Times Springfield bureau chief Dave McKinney resigns
        * Northern Trust now charging Europeans to park their cash
        * Humbler abode: New Chicago archbishop won't live in mansion
        * Chicago hospitalizes two air travelers from Liberia


        * Father Bob Botthof, teacher who became priest after losing wife, dies at 85
        * Father Bob Botthof, teacher who became priest after losing wife, dies at 85
        * Sparse crowd at CPS HQ before Board of Ed vote on Hancock school
        * Indiana officials identify fourth body found after arrest of suspected serial killer
        * Jail guard smuggled weed in sandwiches, feds say
        * Back to the past with mayor’s move
        * Court officials suggest ISIS wannabe could be released from jail on bond
        * Tentative deal at U of I hospital averts threatened nurses’ strike, union says
        * Unemployment rates fall in 31 states, including Illinois
        * 3 Daley scandals cost Chicago taxpayers over $6 million


        * FBI announces 2 bank robberies on the NW Side
        * Man surrenders peacefully after Cary police standoff
        * Grisly new details as 2nd murder charge filed in Indiana slayings
        * Police: Motorist charged after trying to strike police with vehicle
        * Illinois cow is world's tallest, says Guinness World Records
        * Coroner using DNA to identify 3 of the 7 women found dead in Indiana
        * Camera rolling for Wallenda high-wire walk
        * Extra-alarm fire out, no injuries
        * Skokie middle school closed after anonymous Instagram threats
        * Emanuel festivals chief defends Taste loss, Great Chicago Fire fizzle


        * Suspicion lingers over Ebola treatment
        * Judge Orders Court Appointed Monitor For IDOT Hiring
        * 13th Dist. Candidates Talk NAFTA, Ebola During Springfield Debate
        * Attorneys Due In Court For Quinn Hiring Lawsuit
        * Small Campaign Contributions Amount To Chump Change
        * Civic Fed: Lawmakers Once Again Taking Illinois Down Bad Budget Path
        * Cheddar's Leaves Springfield WUIS-SJR Business Report
        * Area Cub Scouts Burned In Explosion
        * Notes On The Final Governor Debate
        * Task Force Hopes To Help Turn Students Into Good Citizens


        * Sun-Times political reporter resigns following Rauner complaint
        * Minimum wage hike supporters urge early voting
        * Federal judge orders court-appointed monitor for IDOT hiring
        * Our Opinion: Choice for Illinois comptroller comes down to experience
        * Rep. Raymond Poe to undergo stem cell transplant
        * Bill Clinton campaigns for Quinn, Durbin
        * Joanna McQuillan Weeks: Cheese balls deserve more respect
        * Our Opinion: White, Madigan for another term
        * Quinn, Rauner spar over jobs, taxes
        * Our Opinion: Say yes to Magro’s project


        * Rhapsody in Bluegrass coming to the Marion Civic Cener Friday
        * Beach Boys to play at the Virginia
        * 10-22-14 News-Gazette Prep Sports Podcast
        * Robert Kyle Peeler
        * 'Feel-good' victims' rights amendment draws support, criticism
        * Blackwater guards found guilty in Iraq shootings
        * Scott Air Force Base sergeant to appear on Wheel of Fortune
        * Weapon plea brings seven-year prison term
        * Kroner: A celebration fit for a legend
        * Kroner: What a celebration


        * Sun-Times reporter quits over paper's handling of story
        * Trick or treat in downtown Libertyville
        * Darling pinching himself with call from Hawks
        * Addison Trail must move on without injured Rybarczyk
        * Gasoline prices below $3 in Kane, DuPage, Lake counties

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * Vice President Biden in Vernon Hills for D......
        * Durbin, Oberweis to meet in 1st US Senate ......
        * Vice President Joe Biden to return to Illi......
        * Reporter resigns following Rauner complaint...
        * Durbin, Oberweis to meet in 1st US Senate ......

        * Online Marketplace for Sex Led Indiana Ser......

        * New poll numbers for Illinois congressional races
        * McKinney’s “Why I quit” gone from Facebook. But here it is.
        * Electing school boards.
        * Waukegan update. End the curfew.
        * Stand for Children PAC supports SB16, donates to both Dems and Republicans
        * New Polls: Illinois legislative races
        * Where's Weyermuller? Breakfast with Ted Cruz and Chicago GOP
        * Republicans Crow As Questions Swirl Surrounding Sun-Times' Rauner Endorsement
        * McKinney Leaves The Sun-Times
        * Our America Fund launches new anti-Durbin ad: Cop Killer


        * TV Breaking News: Ethics blow for Pat Quinn
        * Federal judge deals Quinn ethics blow on IDOT patronage hiring
        * Rauner Statement on Federal Hiring Monitor at IDOT
        * New TV Ad: Endorsed
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Positive Economic News - Illinois Led the Midwest in Job Creation in September and Had Second Best Growth in Nation; Unemployment Rate Has Dropped More Than Any Other State in the Last Year




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller