Rasmussen: US Senate race now tied
Monday, Oct 19, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It’s now tied up…
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Republican hopeful Mark Kirk tied with Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 41% to 41%. Only four percent (4%) would choose another candidate, while 13% remain undecided.
In mid-August, Kirk held a modest 41% to 38% over Giannoulias.
Women in Illinois prefer the Democrat by a 43% to 38% margin, while men choose Kirk 45% to 39%.
Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer Kirk by more than two-to-one - 52% to 23%. […]
But Giannoulias hasn’t wrapped up the race on his side of the fence yet, and the race is heating up between Kirk and another possible Democratic contender. Kirk’s lead over Cheryle Jackson, a former top aide to Blagojevich, is now down to four points - 43% to 39%. Kirk led Jackson by 17 points in August. Only four percent (4%) now say they would vote for another candidate given that match-up, and 13% are undecided.
Once again, unaffiliated voters in Illinois pick Kirk over Jackson by a substantial 52% to 19% margin.
Kirk also leads another Democratic hopeful, former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, 43% to 33%. Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided on this match-up, while another eight percent (8%) favor a different candidate.
The swing is within the margin of error, but Kirk has consistently held a lead in the polling, so this shift is newsworthy.
Those “unaffiliated voter” numbers were strongly highlighted by Kirk in a press release this afternoon, by the way.
More…
Fifty-five percent (55%) of Illinois voters somewhat or strongly approve of President Obama’s job performance so far, showing little change from August. Forty-four percent (44%) disapprove of the job their former senator is doing in the White House. Obama’s approval ratings in Illinois are well ahead of those found on the national level in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking poll.
Rasmussen has consistently shown lower job approval for Obama than most other national polls.
Fine print…
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
…Adding… From The Hill…
Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.) is backing Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Robinson Jackson in the state’s Democratic Senate primary.
Davis signaled his support with a $2,000 contribution to Jackson on Sept. 29, according to his third quarter federal financial filing. Davis spokesman Ira Cohen said the congressman will join a number of elected officials Sunday to formally endorse Jackson.
- Downstater - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:10 pm:
“Rasmussen has consistently shown lower job approval for Obama than most other national polls.”
They have also been the most accurate polling service over the last few election cycles.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:11 pm:
Based on what criterion? Their last polls of the season?
- Downstater - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:15 pm:
Based on the last polls prior to the election and the actual election results. Many of the other polls, like Gallup, poll all citizens not just voters. Rasmussen polls likely voters and constantly adjust its polling sample to reflect accurate party identification. Thus, the results are more representative.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:17 pm:
I’m liking Jackson more and more in the Dem primary.
Insiders might have formed an opinion about her because of her time with Blago, but I suspect the great majority of the very small Democratic primary vote has not. When it comes to first impressions in person — and I suspect, on TV — she’s quite impressive. And let’s face it, she’s very attractive.
She bailed pretty early on Blago. She can use that to her advantage. Are we going to say folks like Sheila Nix were corrupt because they worked for Blago? Unfair.
- OdysseusVL - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:18 pm:
This could become a major problem for Kirk. His argument to the right wing of the GOP is “Vote for me because I can win.” If the trend continues and polls start showing him trailing by even a few points, that argument goes away.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:19 pm:
===Unfair===
Politics and media coverage of politics are some of the most unfair games of all. So, she’s gonna have to deal with it.
- shore - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:29 pm:
Sorry but who besides us is paying attention?
Until the blago bomb goes off and the extent of the carnage is known it’s pointless to take polls seriously.
- shore - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:33 pm:
Stories like this don’t come out in the d.c. press unless there are issues.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/17/AR2009101701427.html
- Abe Froman - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:41 pm:
It’s the start and they are tied. Given the partisan divide in Illinois that’s good news for Kirk.
Compare candidates and Kirk’s resume trounces Alexi’s. Alexi will have more cash than Kirk. Alexi will get help from Obama. Kirk will get a boost from the Blago trial going on next year.
In the end, it will come down to intangibles and who runs a better campaign. Kirk has much more experience at the center of a heated campaign than Alexi.
Bottom line–Kirk is in the hunt and could easily end up winning the “Obama” seat. The Washington Post story should tell everyone what the WH and top Dems know…Alexi is far from the strongest candidate.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:52 pm:
–Politics and media coverage of politics are some of the most unfair games of all. So, she’s gonna have to deal with it.–
No question. That sounded rather naive of me. It distracted from my main point, which is, she might be more of a player in this than I originally expected.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 3:59 pm:
Yes, Mrs. Jackson, those criticisms are for real.
It’s not often that I, a rather unhip white male, can effectively quote Outkast.
She was a high-ranking, highly-paid Blago operate. Case closed.
- George - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 4:05 pm:
effectively ??
I think you meant -
I’m sorry, Ms. Jackson, you aren’t for real.
Never meant to hurt your giant pride,
But you have lied to us a million times.
Rich - It has been hours and still nothing on the Feds decision not to go after people in states who do medical marijuana? I am shocked!
- 47th Ward - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 4:08 pm:
Cheryle Jackson is no Carol Moseley Braun to begin with, and this isn’t 1992. I’ll believe Jackson has a strong chance when she has seven figures on hand.
Sure, she’ll get a good bump if the Cook County Board primary drives huge turnout in African-American wards and townships, but the burden is on her campaign to get her name out there to take advantage of it. That’s going to cost some serious money.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 4:12 pm:
George,
thanks for that. Maybe hip-hop generation Alexi G. should borrow from Outkast and cut a few ads using their song.
I’m guessing outkast wouldn’t like it, but it would be kinda cool if Alexi G could and did use that song.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 9:39 pm:
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It distracted from my main point, which is, she might be more of a player in this than I originally expected.
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I certainly wouldn’t count her out. With all the focus on Alexi, she could be more competitive during the Primary than anyone seems to be giving her credit for in the press.
Having said that, thought, it’ll be interesting to see which D candidates push for–and try to dodge–Primary debates.
- Bubs - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 9:58 pm:
It’s a caution to put much stock in movement within the margin, or for that matter Kirk’s former “lead” within the margin a year out.
I find more significant that the poll was conducted on 10/14, the day after the big vote on the Finance Commitee on Health Care, portrayed in the pro-Obama national media (i.e. all but Fox) as “Obama Parts the Red (Republican) Sea”.
President Obama remains very popular in Illinois. If he gets a boost, so does Alexi, since most still link the two, whatever the reality might be. Beware that the converse may be true as well.
- fedup dem - Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 11:04 pm:
Rasmussen has become increasingly known for tilting its polling universe to favor Republicans in recent years. In any event, a poll taken in this state a year before the General election is little more than a joke, no matter what the results are.