[Bumped up from last night for visibility.]
* A new Tribune poll is not hugely surprising…
Faced with widespread voter dissatisfaction, embattled Cook County Board President Todd Stroger trails Circuit Clerk Dorothy Brown and Chicago Ald. Toni Preckwinkle in the race for the Democratic primary nomination, a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.
Brown had the support of 29 percent of likely Feb. 2 primary voters, ahead of Preckwinkle’s 20 percent, in the poll of 502 likely voters. Stroger received 14 percent and Terrence O’Brien, president of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, had 11 percent.
But the survey found that 26 percent of primary voters are undecided in the race or for someone else — meaning plenty of room exists for the contest to become even more fluid in the post-holiday sprint to the ballot box. […]
O’Brien is the lone white candidate in the race, but the prospect of three African-American candidates splintering the black vote to enable him to win isn’t borne out in the survey.
What is surprising is that for the first time that I can recall, the Tribune has released its questions, toplines and some crosstabs. Click here to download.
Toni Preckwinkle already has a press release out…
We are exactly where we expected to be at this point in our campaign. We entered this race 11 months ago and have been building positive momentum since. We are confident that, as voters continue to hear Toni Preckwinkle’s message - her commitment to repeal the Stroger sales tax increase and bring real reform to County government, that we will win the only poll that matters - on election day.
Our own recent polling shows that Dorothy Brown had a 2:1 name recognition advantage. Yet polling shows even though voters know her, they are unconvinced she deserves a promotion.
The Trib poll’s name recognition advantage for Brown over Preckwinkle - 91 vs. 62- isn’t nearly as high as Preckwinkle claims in her own polling. However, those with either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the two is about two-to-one for Brown - 56-30. O’Brien comes in last in the Trib poll at 51 percent name rec, while just 14 percent know enough about him to rate him…
And here are the Trib’s crosstabs on the head-to-heads…
Preckwinkle absolutely needs to raise some money to get her message out. Her campaign has done a good job of leaking negative research on Brown and O’Brien to the media, but she obviously needs to reinforce that with advertising.
O’Brien needs to up his name ID, and only lots of cash will do that.
This is one reason why the reformers’ hatred of campaign cash is so misguided. Incumbents are already well-known. Challengers have to establish themselves with voters, but nobody in the reform movement is talking about making TV and radio ads lots cheaper.
Data…
This Chicago Tribune Poll is based on interviews of confirmed registered voters likely to vote in the February 2nd Cook County Democratic primary. Interviewing was conducted December 2nd to the 8th. The sample involved 502 Cook County Democratic primary voters, for a potential margin of error of 4.4% at the 95% level of confidence.
- BGA Dave - Thursday, Dec 10, 09 @ 11:40 pm:
“nobody in the reform movement is talking about making TV and radio ads lots cheaper.”
Actually, Rich, for years I’ve been saying that the FCC needs to enforce the “operating in the public interest” portion of the broadcast license and make TV and radio time available to candidates that meet certain criteria. It’s the only way to take some of the money out of politics.
Unfortunately I think that given the corporate nature of the media and the last 30 years of FCC regulatory activity, that it’s a pretty hopeless cause.
Oh yeah, and DOROTHY BROWN? Really? I mean I’m not surprised because of her name id advantage, but it’s a shame people are so unaware of her, shall we say, recent ethical blind spots.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:23 am:
Dave, you’re a different breed because you understand campaigns.
Although, you ought to know that there’s been no time to burn in Brown’s problems and that coverage has been scattered.
- BGA Dave - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:30 am:
I know there hasn’t been the kind of saturation coverage yet. But with paid ads beginning soon, hopefully the prospects of another run of the mill, ethically blind, County Board President will just fade away. Hopefully.
- Lakefront Liberal - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 6:43 am:
Yes for the love of God please don’t let Dorothy Brown become the next Cook County Board president. It will be Todd Stroger all over again just with a different set of cronies.
- State Sen. Clay Davis - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 7:07 am:
Money and how it is spent is the name of the game at this point. The 62% “Heard of” with 32% “No Opinion” suggests that Preckwinkle name ID is soft. Also, on the phone, “Toni” and “Tony” sound the same, so those wanting to vote for female candidates might not know that Dorothy Brown is not the only woman candidate.
I want to meet those 3% of white voters pulling for Stroger!
- Suzanne - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 7:16 am:
BGA Dave spot on and is not as lonely in his view as one might think. A later primary would easy the time / message / money squeeze.
- Will County Woman - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 8:07 am:
I’m a little surprised by O’Brien’s low numbers and Brown’s high numbers. Not surpised by Todd’s numbers, and I suspect other polls will have him low too.
Re: O’brien…
maybe cook county has become post-racial after all, or after Obama??????? maybe race won’t help O’brien all that much. interesting times we live in.
- Richard Afflis - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 8:36 am:
Senator Davis, you probably have met the three percent of the white voters who are supporting Stroger. They work for the County and know they are gone when Todd is gone.
It would not surprise me given the undecideds in this race if Stroger’s numbers actually go up at least a little. For some people, the known entity is better than the unknown- who might not keep the status quo. Whether this is enough to put him over the top is unknown.
I would caution anybody who thinks this county is post race because O’Brien is not gaining any ground to not think that. There still is the “Bradley effect” and people who are of other than white race who vote for candidates like them are also voting based on race.
- corvax - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 8:36 am:
My unverified recollection is that the numbers aren’t far off from where Obama was vis-s-vis Hynes, the guy w/ the name recognition, in the senate primary at this point.
Although this is a county, not state, race, like that one, if Preckwinkle can get to the Cook suburbs, i think, in this field, she’ll glow with a good-gov’t vibe that will resonate like Vallas and Obama did, as shown by the enthusiastic New Trier endorsement.
I live in Maine Township and I just ordered my lawn sign (I’ll have to warm the ground with a flame-thrower).
- wordslinger - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 9:13 am:
Stroger’s numbers are astounding. The guy did win a general election.
Because she’s in the lead, I suspect we’ll see a review in the dailies and TV of Brown’s ethics issues, particularly the gifting. That kind of stuff really rankles folks.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 9:23 am:
This poll hamstrings the ministers who are trying to push out Strogers competition. It looks to me like the Toddler should be the one getting out. I bet Danny Davis is re-thinking his choice. I bet he would have been at 40%.
- regular democrat - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 9:30 am:
The good showing by Preckwinkle may give her a boost with fundraising. Anyone disagree? She is in a good spot and could probably win with the right amount of money. Her suburban appeal could be the thing that puts her over the top. Let me know if I am way off.
- Jeff - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 9:33 am:
I’ve been hearing that the Daley people are quietly getting behind O’Brien. Kind of surprising to see him at only 11% support. What will be really telling is when they release their end-of-year campaign fund reports. I have a feeling O’Brien will pull in a big haul for the second half of 2009. If not, he’s toast.
- Knome Sane - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 9:36 am:
Haven’t the residents of Cook County been punished enough?
Dorothy Brown as Cook County Board President?
I repeat: Haven’t the residents of Cook County been punished enough?
- Wow - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 10:11 am:
If I were Preckwinkle’s people I would be overjoyed by this poll! She has room to go up in Suburban cook and among african-american’s who will come to realize that Storger is not viable. Brown has too much scandal around her for people to be comfortable that she will not carry the baggage to the President seat!
- VanillaMan - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 10:17 am:
If these three are our candidates for leading one of the nation’s largest counties, then what does this say?
It says that the county not diverse enough politically.
It says that those in political control have run out of ideas.
It says that those in political power are also out of decent people to run this county.
Having Old Man Stroger as leader made sense after his years in public service. Having The Toddler as leader was an obvious embarrassment forced upon us due to the Old Man’s death, and corrupted Party leaders.
But this? This clearly demonstrates to me just how badly Cook County has been led. If these three are the best the Democrats can do for this huge county with his multi-billion dollar budgets, we are in a bigger mess than we think.
- Anon and on... - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 11:03 am:
Brown seems to have a bit of a teflon veneer, but I think that’s because she’s such a lightweight the news media never treated her scandals seriously.
Her hiring practices remind me of a certain former Illinois Governor awaiting trial and her penchant for taking gifts from employees sounds like a certain Illinois Governor who is currently serving time.
Not a record to be proud of.
- CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 11:25 am:
Capt. Fax:
You on the bottom with why the Trib is releasing all the poll date…..could it be they have entered the same era as the LA Times? Or do they want to tube DB? Perhaps the Chicago News Consortium, Illinois Statehouse News, ProPublica will do that story for us. TEE HEE
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:38 pm:
Everyone seems to have overlooked the irony that Terry O’Brien’s troops helped get Dorothy Brown on the ballot.
I don’t think Brown’s going to stay in first place forever, but based on this poll I’ll bet she finishes ahead of O’Brien.
That’s freakin’ HILARIOUS!
- John - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:52 pm:
I think you have it backwards. Brown’s people helped O’Brien get on. Brown have a strong base with the Churches and local folks.
- Sam E. - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:20 pm:
Bad news and good news for O’Brien.
Bad: 11 percent is surprisingly low. Won’t help his fundraising.
Good: 28 percent of the white vote is undecided — almost all of that is going his way. 20 percent of the black vote is undecided — that will be split three ways. And this poll has O’Brien getting only 17 percent of the white vote. He’ll obviously do much better than that on election day.
Also good for O’Brien: Brown’s surprisingly high numbers might force Preckwinkle to shift strategy. I think Toni was poised to direct all her fire at O’Brien to run up his negatives with liberal-leaning white voters. Now she might have to spend some money and time beating up Brown.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not completely buying into the idea that O’Brien is a shoe-in because he’s the only white guy. Just two years ago the smart money said Howard Brookins couldn’t lose the State’s Attorney’s race because of racial voting patterns and he ended up finishing fourth. It just seems to me that this poll shows room for O’Brien and Preckwinkle’s numbers to move up, while Dorothy and Todd have already peaked.
My best guess for how things will end up:
O’Brien 34 %
Preckwinkle 30%
Brown 18%
Stroger 18%
- SweetLou - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:59 pm:
“This is one reason why the reformers’ hatred of campaign cash is so misguided. Incumbents are already well-known. Challengers have to establish themselves with voters, but nobody in the reform movement is talking about making TV and radio ads lots cheaper.”
Thank you Rich for pointing out the elephant in the room. I used to be in favor of contribution limits until I saw first hand just how hard it is for reformers to raise money! The fact is that contribution limits makes it harder for non-establishment candidates to be competitive.
and Sam E., I guarantee you that a large portion of that undecided white vote is along the lakefront, which is prime territory for Preckwinkle, not O’Brien. switch those numbers for O’Brien and Preckwinkle and that’ll be closer to the final result, in my honest opinion.
- Sam E. - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:29 pm:
Lou, you might be right. I just think the poll may have undercounted the angry suburban white voters who will be motivated to come out and vote against Stroger.
But given the fact that this is going to be a low turnout primary, liberal-activist types on the lakefront who habitually vote might decide the contest — and they will definitely lean toward Toni.
- ZC - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 4:08 pm:
If only we knew where the undecided whites are. The liberal lakefront types tend to be more educated and attentive, and thus I’m guessing more likely to make up their minds early. I’m not sure in other words why, SweetLou, you’re so confident that the undecideds are concentrated on the lakefront. Perhaps you’ve seen data of your own on that front. In which case : good news for Toni!
- Will County Woman - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 4:38 pm:
dorothy brown kinda reminds of dorothy tillman, just without the hats. i think that’s why i’ve never really warmed up to brown in reality or as an idea.
- former clerk staffer - Saturday, Dec 12, 09 @ 6:13 pm:
Anon an On… as a former senior staffer of “Madame Clerk” as she demanded we call her, you are absolutely right on vis-a-vis her hiring practices and requirements for buying tickets to her quarterly love fests, starting with her first day in office. (yes, we had an Inaugural BALL, mind you - then a 100 days in office soiree, then a birthday bash, then an Inaugural Anniversary, etc etc ad nauseum - for which we each received a written directive for how many tickets we were required to ante up for, from her then 2nd in command,Squire - seriously, I wouldn’t make this up!)
Someone oughta check for her “clout database” which assigns favorability percentages (”weighted vote”)to each politico who comes a-callin’ looking for jobs.
I sat across a table from her in a deposition, and watched her lie through her teeth under oath.
Then, there’s her gas guzzling Escalade and personal chauffeur who’s “officially” a Legal Anaylyst bringing down mege bucks in salary, when all he really does is pick her up, check her mail, read the paper, take her home.
And, of course most recently thinking she could get away with having EarnFare recipients collect petition signatures for her.
Told ya….she’s the most arrogant and deceitful person I’ve ever met. E-V-E-R.
How she can be ahead in the polls has to be only a result of her name being plastered all over the county. I sure hope the voters aren’t going to exchange one crook for another?