* I told subscribers about this new poll already, but Public Policy Polling just posted the results on its blog, so here you go…
A primary loss for Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is looking more and more possible. He trails Dan Hynes 41-40 in our poll of the race.
Hynes’ slight advantage is due largely to a 45-38 lead with African Americans, suggesting that a controversial ad featuring former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington making disparaging comments about Quinn may be working to Hynes’ advantage. The two candidates are tied among white voters with Quinn holding a 44-36 lead with Hispanics.
Quinn’s approval rating even among Democratic primary voters is just 38%, with an equal 38% disapproving of his job performance. 35% of voters view Hynes favorably to 25% unfavorably.
This race could still go either way but the momentum is in Hynes’ favor given his huge deficit in polling just a month ago.
The Republican race is even more up for grabs with five candidates polling within eight points of each other. Kirk Dillard is at 19%, followed by Andy McKenna with 17%, Bill Brady with 16%, Jim Ryan at 13%, and Adam Andrzejewski at 11%. Of the remaining candidates only Dan Proft with 7% is not in double digits.
At this point it seems the momentum is with Dillard, McKenna, and Brady with Ryan suffering from whatever the reverse of momentum is but on the Republican side it is definitely anyone’s game.
A week out from the primary there are still ten plausible match ups for the general election with five Republicans and two Democrats in serious contention- it’s not too often you see this kind of pile up so late in the game.
The full results, including crosstabs, are here.
Important note: This is not the poll that Fox Chicago had last night. I’m choosing not to post that poll until I can find out more about it.
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** Dillard’s campaign manger is the first to issue a press release…
“With just one week to go until the Primary Election, today’s poll from Public Policy Polling (on Capitol Fax) shows that the Dillard campaign continues to gain momentum from voters across the state. It’s clear that Illinois Republicans are supporting Dillard’s plan to create jobs, balance our State’s budget, and clean up corruption in Springfield.
“It’s too bad Andy McKenna has decided to make this a negative campaign against his fellow Republicans. As former Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, Andy said that he would unite the party around the issues that mattered. Andy also said that he would be an ethical leader. Clearly, that is not what he has done in this race, as it has been found that he unethically used party resources to bolster his run for governor while party chairman. That’s just more of the same kind of leadership Illinois is suffering from.
“Public Policy Polling is a highly reputable and accurate firm with a great track record in 2008 and most recently, the Massachusetts Senate race. The Wall Street Journal cites Public Policy Polling was one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2008 election cycle.”
LIVE session coverage...
- 4 percent - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 9:51 am:
Dillard clearly has momentum. 11 newspaper endorsement and support from Rifle Association, IEA, Family PAC and many others.
Dillard is the most qualified candidate and it shows by the support.
McKenna is a whiny little guy who is now skipping debates and throwing bombs in his temper tantrum.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 9:56 am:
Just as I expected!
When did you ask who we thought would win?
I called it right.
Quinn’s balloon losing air isn’t news to us junkies anymore. He is going to lose.
Dillard is ahead because the last poll demonstrated that Edgar’s boy carries credibility over McWorldsWorstPartyChairman and Retro-Ryan.
Brady has a base of support. His gain is McImSpendingDaddysMoney loss. Adam is also legit enough to no longer be considered a “D-List” candidate. These guys are splitting the conservative vote.
Ryan is fading, to Dillard’s benefit.
So it will be Hynes and Dillard - a great race!
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 9:59 am:
===When did you ask who we thought would win?===
Yesterday. LOL. It was a long day.
Also, I had heard that this poll was coming out, so I kinda sandbagged everybody just to get them on record.
Pingback Dillard Takes Lead in Nationally Acclaimed Poll « Kirk Dillard for Governor - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:09 am:
[…] “With just one week to go until the Primary Election, today’s poll from Public Policy Polling (on Capitol Fax) shows that the Dillard campaign continues to gain momentum from voters across the state. It’s clear that Illinois Republicans are supporting Dillard’s plan to create jobs, balance our State’s budget, and clean up corruption in Springfield. […]
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:10 am:
I need to rephrase my earlier post due to over excitement.
I came off as being the only person who saw this trend, and I definately was not.
I’m just happy that both parties seem to be on the verge of giving us their best. We really need new leadership in Springfield that will somberly address our pending bankrupsy. Hynes and Dillard are great choices, and I hope they win the nominations.
- quinn fan - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:11 am:
governor quinn was brilliant last night in the debate–he will lead the party to a great victory with his excellent ideas on tax reform and management of our state.
- just sayin' - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:12 am:
It’s hard to imagine a material number of undecideds going with Dillard.
Is a Republican voter who hasn’t made up his or her mind by now really going to go with the guy who never met a tax hike he didn’t like AND helped elect Obama?
Hard to imagine.
Sadly I think this is McKenna’s race to lose given his bankroll and the fact that his ads hit the right issues and are the best money can buy.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:14 am:
quinn fan, please try to do more than just spout a bumper sticker slogan here. That goes for everybody, by the way.
I suppose it’s time to do my biennial warning post.
- Rudy - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:14 am:
It’s close, very close. I’m curious as to what sort of damage McKenna’s latest round of ads will do.
- John Bambenek - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:16 am:
Dillard has what, 90% name rec… people have made up their mind on him. Support is still squishy so the numbers can go down, but not up by much.
- Knome Sane - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:17 am:
quinn fan, you do crack me up? Are you headlining at Zanies this weekend? Hilarious! The fact is, voter turnout will be dismal. Nobody watched the debates so whomever “won” will be lost to the scant voters who will turnout.
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:17 am:
The dream scenario for Democrats.
Quinn provides the brutal tax increase as a lame duck. The Democrats get to run Hynes in November. Then Hynes gets to reduce taxes for moderate income Illinoisans during his first term when the Illinois Constitution is amended to allow the graduated income tax.
- Fan of Cap Fax - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:19 am:
I still think Quinn will be the winner. I always think back to how So Il usually rolls the vote one way or another in the end. For Dems this year they’ll roll for Quinn. He’s country, Hynes is rock-n-roll.
- SweetLou - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:21 am:
If Dillard wins the republican nod, then I hate to say it but the dems primary is irrelevant. Dillard is a clone of Jim Edgar and I honestly don’t see how the Democrats keep him out of the governor’s mansion. So here’s hoping for a McKenna victory!
- Big Policy Nerd - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:25 am:
Correct me if I am wrong, but isn’t Jim Ryan running out of money?? I looked over his D2’s and A1’s along with the other candidates a few days ago and he maybe has $200 k left in the bank, but he probably already spent it all to buy television time. The teachers union $$$ might be what Dillard needs to squeak it out. His new ad is impressive. All of the back and forth on the Dem’ side makes it tougher for any GOP’ers to go up on TV with a shot at Jim Ryan. I thought we would have seen that by now.
- DemVOTER - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:25 am:
I saw this coming just after the MA vote… If your anything close to an Incumbent, your in trouble…, Also, many were so burnt out from the 08 elections, that I think it took even longer for voters to get back in the swing of things here in Illinois… Hynes will be elected this fall, bank on it.
- Steve-O - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:26 am:
I think a Dillard/Plummer ticket would be strong one for the GOP. Dillard will probably draw some crossover votes, he’s been around the block, and Plummer balances the ticket with downstate support, very conservative and tons of cash. And they’ll need the cash if Hynes wins the primary…he seems to be a much more formidable candidate than Quinn.
- Lake Voter - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:26 am:
Quinn=Management? Sorry but quinn can’t manage his way out of a paper bag.
Did Sen. Dillard surge too soon? Does he have the money to stay up in the Chicago market? I think the best has yet to come from the McKenna camp. They have been playing it close to the vest the whole time. They obviously will have the cash available to the end.
- The Doc - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:27 am:
==If Dillard wins the republican nod, then I hate to say it but the dems primary is irrelevant==
Say what? I suppose you have polling numbers in support of your statement? Any evidence at all this is factual?
- Secret Square - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:28 am:
How much of a difference did Dillard’s Obama ad really make in the primary results? Didn’t Obama pretty much have Illinois in the bag anyway (that was the point of moving up the primary date, to make it coincide with Super Tuesday)? Also, the primary race between him and Hillary Clinton kept going for quite some time after that. It didn’t seal the deal by any means.
It seems to me that Dillard “helped elect Obama” about as much as my toilet flushing helped flood the Illinois River. Yes, it was a mistake, but I can think of a lot worse mistakes for a candidate to make.
- DemVOTER - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:29 am:
Who is Frank Schmidt???.. Quinn Just returned one of his checks…: http://www.elections.state.il.us/campaigndisclosure/CommitteeDetail.aspx?id=1212
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:31 am:
===Didn’t Obama pretty much have Illinois in the bag anyway ===
The ad was used in Iowa, and then again late in the season. It wasn’t aimed at Illinois, silly.
- cassandra - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:32 am:
Well, maybe I gave too much weight to the power of incumbency and not enough to Hynes’ recent big runup in the polls.
And maybe this year, middle class voters are actually thinking of their personal pocketbooks and struggles for economic solvency and security, which would mitigate in favor of Hynes, who doesn’t appear to see another wealth transfer from the middle class to the “poor” as viable right now–unlike our Pat.
- N'ville - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:33 am:
Is it just me, or does anybody else think that the McKenna bashing of Ryan and Dillard seems to be benefitting Brady more than anyone else? Comparing the Trib and PPP polls McKenna is down 2, Ryan down 5 with Dillard up 5, or 36%, and Brady up 7, or 78%, within 3 of Dillard, which is probably within the margin of error.
- A matter of trust - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:33 am:
Wait till the full pressure of McKenna’s money hits Dillard for the remainder of the week. This race will change at lease two more times before next Tuesday. The Obama angle will lead to the downfall of Dillard through McKenna’s money.
- quinn fan - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:35 am:
have been looking for the positives of the governor’s campaign..
to be honest, when many people were waiting to see if there was a victim ad forthcoming on tv a couple weeks ago– i never would have thought the best victim ad of the campaign would end up being the governor himself.
that ad with the late great mayor was impossible to answer back..
- Secret Square - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:37 am:
Oh, that’s very different… never mind! :-)
- Rudy - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:38 am:
I have to agree with “A matter of trust’s” statement. I hafta think that McKenna money/ads are going to hurt Dillard.
- Inker - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:39 am:
I hope the primary election turns out w/Hynes vs. Dillard. That will be a good election in November for Illinois. If Governor Quinn becomes a lame duck it will be interesting to see how he completes his term. One good thing would be for him to clean house for the good of the people of Illinois. Many Milorad “Rod” Blagojevich appointments remain working in Illinois government payroll. They sometimes come in to work (somtimes) and most do absolutely nothing. Even if Governor Quinn is defeated he can do a lot of good for Illinois.
Senator Dillard is an honorable man and would be a great standard bearer. McKenna is critical of Dillard doing the ad for President Obama. What is wrong with reaching across party lines. Illinois will certainly need that after the election in November.
- Big Policy Nerd - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:41 am:
@ N’ville
I am with you. If Brady continues to focus on down state and put his TV $$$ there, he could squeak this thing out. It also helps Brady if Jim Ryan continues to tank.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:45 am:
I don’t believe that poll. I don’t think the white vote is tied and I can’t believe the black vote is going for Hynes. If it is true, I would be very surprised.
BTW, Hynes really shouldn’t tell people to retire if he wants to get the senior vote. Just a thought.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:46 am:
@DemVoter:
Could it be the Frank Schmidt who runs the Joliet landfill that caused the whole Mell/Blago brouhaha? Mentioned in this article:
http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/February-2008/Mr-Un-Popularity/
- Cook County R - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:46 am:
This poll shows how ridiculous the tribune poll is. It is time for the real conservatives to come together. Adam you have had a good run but you need to drop out of the race, all you are doing is preventing an actual conservative like yourself from getting elected. You have a future in IL politics but its time you concede and endorse Brady. This poll shows between Proft, Adam, and Brady; Brady can easily win this election. Adam and Proft should seriously consider dropping out and endorsing Brady or else we are going to end up with Andy “spend daddy’s money” McKenna or Kirk “Obama Endorsement” Dillard.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:48 am:
Does Dillard have any last-minute money to put in TV? McKenna is light as a feather, this is as close as he’s ever gotten to winning. He’s going to own the airwaves til Tuesday.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 10:53 am:
===I can’t believe the black vote is going for Hynes===
People don’t believe a lot of things that are true. Another poll I’ve seen in the past week showed the same thing as this PPP poll.
- Joe from Joliet - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:04 am:
…it’s hard to imagine…
Maybe for you, Just. In reality, it is happening. It isn’t the koolaid drinkers moving to him at this late date.
Dillard is peaking at exactly the right time.
- flower gardener - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:07 am:
I’m not seeing how our Republican Governor candidates stand on the “Life” issue. Are they Pro-life or Pro-choice? Please enlighten me.
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:08 am:
If I could offer a hypothesis.
Among Blacks who are politically engaged, the Harold Washington ad seems to have pushed them toward Quinn.
While the Blacks known by people commenting on Cap Fax Blog are politically engaged, most Blacks are not actively engaged in politics.
Regular Blacks are feeling economically squeezed. Remember, unemployment is higher for Blacks. And household wealth is lower. Blacks have less of a cushion to weather a prolonged recession.
So, Black voters may be like the more economically stressed White voters who are PO’d and want change. The Harold Washington ad may not have appealed so much as a racial case.
It’s not that hard to sell the idea that state government isn’t doing all it should be doing. And the Hynes ad featuring Harold Washington gives Black voters something they can change about state government: the governor.
If you have 30% of your family unemployed, is it hard to believe Gov. Quinn is mismanaging state government?
Why wouldn’t economically squeezed households vote for change? Bobby Rush and Danny Davis may have relationships with Pat Quinn going back decades, the average Black household doesn’t.
I guess we’ll see how much influence the Black political leaders have over Black voters in the election results. Based on the polling, the influence of leadership isn’t that great when the economy sucks and there’s little reason for hope in the near future.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:09 am:
flower gardener, this is not Google. Do a quick search before asking elementary questions here, please.
- Rudy - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:11 am:
McKenna - Pro-life
Brady - Pro-life
Adrejewski - Pro - life
Proft - I assume the same
- ILPundit - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:12 am:
I have a sneaking hunch Brady is going to be the nominee. He’s in striking distance, and he seems to be the candidate of the very-energized segment of the base. Given that the GOP primary has been a snoozer, turnout is going to loom large in that primary.
- South of I-80 - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:12 am:
I can’t remember if I read it here or heard it on the radio that McKenna was not going to be participating in tonights debate on channel!! It would have been good to see him and Dillard debating.
- The Court Jester - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:14 am:
so Dillards campaign manager denounced the negative campaigning of McKenna then in the same paragraph did his own smear on McKenna..classic
- Conservative Veteran - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:23 am:
Rudy, you’re correct. Proft is pro-life. I heard him give a few speeches and say that he’s adopted. He says that, if abortion was legal, when he was born, he might have been aborted. He says that he’s pro-life to ensure that more babies have the chance to be born, like he was.
- Will County Woman - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:30 am:
Inker i agree with you about Dillard.
Repubs are going to vote for Mark Kirk, a moderate, so they may as well go with a mod rep in Dillard as a safe/best pick. the two of them on the november ticket would be killer for the dems.
in a year in which obama is not doing well, and isn’t likely to have asuaged very many people despite axelrod’s and plouffe’s best efforts, mark kirk is likely to be the gotv factor who attracts indpendents and moderate dems to send obama a message for illinois.
- Will County Woman - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:42 am:
Conservative vet,
any one over the age of 37 could say that as well. were violins playing in the background when proft made that statement? geeze.
- Will County Woman - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:46 am:
make that under the age of 37.
- Bill - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:50 am:
Bobby Kennedy fired me too.
Vote Quinn in 2010.
- Bill - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 11:50 am:
Whoops, that was my bumper sticker. Sorry.
- UI Chancellor - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 12:46 pm:
Rich, could you put up a link to the Fox Chicago poll?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 12:46 pm:
No.
- bobb-downstater - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 1:07 pm:
Polls mean nothing-who votes Repub.in primaries very few-most races are uncontested by repub. So most take Demo ballot. I know Independents will-and probably vote repub. in Nov. Yuknow Nov lis a far way off. things will probably change-the pendulum will eventually back to Demo’s favor.
- Anon - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 1:08 pm:
People getting excited over a 3-5 point difference in two different polls, that are only snapshots and not tracking polls, should take a deep breath. Given the margin of error and methodolgy used, this poll shows pretty much the exact same results as the Tribune poll and McKenna’s poll released last week. That is, nobody is in control of this race, and it’s anyone’s ballgame.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 1:08 pm:
===Yuknow Nov lis a far way of===
Um, bobb, is that some new language? lol
- bobb-downstater - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 1:30 pm:
Rich, some of us do not type well and some of us don’t reason. Its ovious which group you fall in. No, its just my southern twang.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 1:31 pm:
Obvious, eh? Where would you point to bad reasoning?
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 1:52 pm:
That is not a new language. I’ve heard it spoken in the movie Nell.
- Jimmy Joe - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 2:46 pm:
I would like McKenna to point out the first $3B in cuts he is going to make, and if he can stumble past that, the next $3B, etc. It’s impossible, but gullible voters will vote for him.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 6:18 pm:
Carl -
I think PPP’s analysis may be a little off too.
Rumors of a Hynes surge on the Southside preceded the Harold Washington ad.
I’m guessing there are a few things at play:
- Economics, as you mentioned; tax increases don’t play well with lower income voters;
- Endorsements, especially from the CTU, which represents tens of thousands of black middle class voters, and tens of thousands more retirees, are having their effect;
- Early release, probably much more damning in high crime neighborhoods than anywhere;
- Quinn’s bleeding voters everywhere.
There’s probably a little skullduggery going on too, with Quinn “supporters” playing both sides of the fence not just in the black community, but all across this state.
- DuPage Dave - Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 7:00 pm:
Could Quinn be an effective leader as a lame duck? Would he work hard to put the ship of state on a solid financial footing? Is there any way he might turn things around once he has nothing to run for??
Nah, probably not…
- cornfield - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 7:13 am:
if it’s true Kirk voted for Obama I have a problem voting for him