Every night before an Election Day, I spend four or five hours on the phone with people I trust asking what they think will happen.
There are always a couple of races that will have them stumped, but I’ve never seen everybody perplexed about so many outcomes until the night before last week’s election.
Take, for instance, the Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Gov. Pat Quinn had what can only be described as a nightmarish few weeks in January. His job disapproval rating shot skyward, his support tanked everywhere and Dan Hynes pulled even in the polls.
But things started to change eight days before the election when word leaked out that Ford Motor Co. had agreed to add 1,200 jobs to its Chicago assembly plant. Factories are closing all over the country, yet here was a major success. Quinn on the Tuesday before the election held the official ceremony, which was attended by Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley.
On Wednesday of that week, Quinn announced a $366 million upgrade to Wacker Drive in Chicago and held a ceremony at Northern Illinois University to release millions of dollars to “repurpose” Cole Hall - the site of the tragic campus shooting which left five students dead.
On that Thursday came a radio debate on WVON - an African-American station - where Quinn cleaned Hynes’ clock, and the announcement of big federal money for high-speed rail, with a subsequent Mayor Daley news conference and a statewide fly-around with U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin on Friday. Quinn owned the entire week.
By Friday afternoon, Quinn had put Hynes on the defensive after the governor’s campaign leaked some explosive documents to a Chicago TV station about Burr Oak Cemetery. The cemetery was the object of much controversy in the Chicago area last summer when it was discovered that graves were being resold and bodies were being dug up and cast aside. Quinn’s new information made it look like Hynes should’ve known back in 2003 that there was a serious problem with grave reselling.
After being, um, buried by Quinn’s super-positive announcements all week, Hynes clearly lost the weekend. Both candidates did their best to stay positive the day before Election Day, so even if it was a draw, that’s still a loss for the challenger.
“Earned media” can’t win an election on its own. Topnotch advertising is essential. Quinn’s closing TV ads were very positive and, to my eyes, very effective. In one, he looked directly into the camera and said: “You know who I am. For years, I’ve fought the big shots on behalf of everyday people.”
A trusted friend of mine believes that was the best ad of the season. It surely was close. The governor and his team did an amazing job of framing what was really at stake. “On Tuesday,” Quinn said in the ad, “my opponent’s counting on false, negative ads to win. Me? I’m counting on you.” Perfect.
So, the night before the election, the big question was whether all of that was enough to put Quinn over the top. While he obviously stopped the hemorrhaging, was the patient just too far gone to be saved at the last minute? Or did Hynes peak too soon? Did he start running the now-infamous Harold Washington ad too early (even though it totally blunted Quinn’s initial Burr Oak Cemetery ad, which started the same day and could’ve been very damaging)? Etc., etc.
Everybody I talked with went back and forth. If they started by saying that one would win, they would always find a way to reverse themselves or seriously question their own logic. It was a maddening exercise. I learned nothing except that everybody is confused and nobody wants to stick their necks out.
As we all know by now, that last, incredible week was enough to boost Quinn’s prospects and help him squeak by Hynes with an 8,000-vote win, out of more than 900,000 votes cast - a little over a vote per precinct statewide.
It was one of the greatest comebacks I’ve ever seen. My hat’s off to the guy.
It’s just too bad he didn’t vet all the lieutenant governor candidates ahead of time. His election night would’ve been perfect. But that’s for another story.
- Carl - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 9:46 am:
Quinn’s “victory” speech was an example of being a “sore winner”, gloating and demanding that Hynes concede. Plus Jesse White’s gaffe when he mentioned tax increases, perfect fodder for Republican campaign commercials in general election
- Levois - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 9:55 am:
The week was almost perfect, but very underwhelming!
- True Observer - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 9:56 am:
Synopsis of column:
Form and Style carried the day. Applauds the handlers.
How about the LG candidate? His form and style carried the day too. Doesn’t he get a hand?
- TJ - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 10:01 am:
heh, sorry…. no disrespect, Rich…. but I’d hardly call an incumbent winning a primary by less than 1% of the vote after having been ahead the entire time (except for a practical tie in the last week or two of the campaign that was well within the margin of error of the polling sample) a great comeback.
He had a good week, no doubt, and was likely able to use that to stave off the Hynes challenge, but squeaking by after having been ahead by so much for so long is nothing to be that proud of.
To use a sports analogy, imagine the Illini/Clemson game from a couple months back where the Illini came back and won by two after having been trounced in the first half of the game. If Clemson was able to just barely hold on and win by a basket after having had the game tied on them, I’d hardly call that a comeback.
Same with Quinn winning against Hynes after he more or less let him tie the game up.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 10:10 am:
So the guy who lost twenty polling points over the past month stopped the bleeding enough to stay alive, and somehow that is impressive?
If he was a hospital patient, he’d be fair to consider a lawsuit against his doctors.
This campaign was Quinn’s to lose - and he did. The fact that he ended up with more votes than Hynes didn’t make him a winner.
It just showed that the tourniquets worked long enough to keep the patient alive.
Now he faces Brady. Sheesh!
Talk about the zombies running the morgue, the gubernatorial campaign post-Blagojevich is a tremendous let down for Illinois. At a time when this state is in over it’s head and floundering, the guy who sat on his hands for the past year, will continue to do so until this time next year.
Then he’ll sit on his hands a little longer as state government becomes more bipartisan and more bitter.
Great.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 10:14 am:
I know Hynesight is 20/20, but I thought Dan Hynes should have hammered away with Blago stuff after the early release stuff ran it’s course and wait for Quinn or one of his surrogates to bring up Tom Hynes’s run against Harold. The way the polls were falling you have to know Bobby Rush or someone would pull that out. Hynes then could have said, let’s not bring up the past-those were different times, why do you want to bring us back? ect.
Hynes could have also said something like, “besides Harold thought you were a terrible employee.” Quinn would have responded by saying that was untrue and voila-out comes the footage proving Hynes correct.
The bottom line is Hynes opened the door for Quinn to use past racial elections without paying the price for being the one who started it. That was a bad play.
- cassandra - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 10:16 am:
Yes, the opportunity to take credit for public works projects is one of the huge benefits of incumbency. Given the extreme anxiety at the WH regarding the 2010 elections I think we can assume our Pat will roll out a whole bunch of public works projects between now and the fall….courtesy of the feds, not our Pat, of course.
I doubt anyone will remember SLC in November.
Picking his successor will be tricky though.
A prominent and youngish pick could be a threat to Lisa in four or eight years.
Meanwhile, with the prospect of unending federal riches, maybe our Pat could seal the deal by dropping or delaying his regressive middle class income tax increase. The federal projects will increase state tax receipts. They don’t all have to go to plumping up the pension fund and plumping up the take of state contractors. As he says, he is the people’s governor.
- Anon - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 10:18 am:
while the harold commercial worried me, i always believed that the governor would beat hynes in a close race (though i had no idea it would be as close as it was!).
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 10:21 am:
I knew that somoeone wuld drop off that “briefcafe” to SLC, to “think” about dropping out, I just didn’t think that it would be MJM personally. When MJM has a frank and honest discussion with SLC, I think SLC meant, “I looked at the briefcase, …they gave me until MON to get out, so halftime at the Super Bowl was my last chance before MON”
Have the pie, it’s good here.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 10:34 am:
===and somehow that is impressive?===
Yep, because he stopped the massive bleeding and won. Without that last week, he would’ve lost by ten points. A win is a win, dude.
- wordslinger - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 10:38 am:
It was good enough.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 10:40 am:
I bet Dillard or Brady would call a winning margin that Quinn got impressive …
- Wondering... - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 11:19 am:
A win is a win… it was good enough…
And now Quinn gets to face off against Brady or Dillard and get his rear end handed to him.
If you think for a second that no one will remember SLC in November I think you are sadly mistaken. And Hynes, and Quinn himself, gave the Repulicans plently of ammo for the months, days and weeks leading up to the November election. I predict that Quinn will lose in November and that, IMHO, he will have no one to blame but himself.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 11:25 am:
Rich, I disagree with some of the points you make in your column.
- Highland, IL - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 11:46 am:
We could just as eaily be talking about Hynes win over a sitting Governor. Quinn got lucky & he’s going to need more then luck to win the General. Although some may say Brady is a lucky draw for any Dem.
- Ghost - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 12:10 pm:
This is going to be interesting. Quinn is very vunerable, but to me Brady is the best chance Quinn has of keeping a hold of the spot.
The GOP has really kerfeld their opportunity.
- cassandra - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 12:36 pm:
I dont think we should underestimate the extent to which the national party and the WH will be involved in state races this year. They have said as much. And they command vast resources and can print money. Life is unfair and the Repubs did the same thing when they had the WH.
The repubs will be playing David to the federal Goliath and I don’t think either Brady or Dillard has the charisma to overcome that.
- Arthur Andersen - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 1:19 pm:
‘A win is a win, dude.’
As a long-suffering Illini fan, I completely agree with you, Rich.
However, once PJQ won the primary, starting with the motley crew that surrounded him as he gave a flat victory speech, seems that he’s reverted to form.
Hard to teach old dogs new tricks.
Good column, as always.
- sal-says - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 5:08 pm:
Strikes me as an incumbent politician who was able to buy the election with a bunch of promises. Ya just can’t beat being an incumbent. Don’t forget about Quinn’s AFSCME deal recently. See IL Issues titled: “Quinn makes deal with AFSCME to save jobs”.
“It was one of the greatest comebacks I’ve ever seen. My hat’s off to the guy.”
Probably true from a ‘political’ perspective; but probably not from an ‘effectiveness’ or ‘taxpayer’ perspective. Exactly WHAT has Quinn done in a full year as governor to address/solve the impending IL financial catastrophe? But, it was a smart ‘political’ move on his part; smarter than I expected.
Ya just can’t beat incumbency, can ya? Maybe term limits have some merit, but wouldn’t help here.
- Quinn T. Sential - Monday, Feb 8, 10 @ 9:58 pm:
An excellent assessment of one small element of the primary election foused on a single campaign. You may have missed an opportunity however to elaborate on other noteworthy aspects of the election like; the Republican primary for Governor, Kelly Burke’s race in Evergreen and the defeat of the Madigan mayhem in trying to preserve McCarthy in Orland Park with the fictitous Republican Irish woman candidate there as well.
Lots of other little tid-bits of interest, but a good column on the Quinn-Hynes race and the near miss for Quinn. Hynes let the Harold video a little too early, and it cost him the election.