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Rasmussen: Brady over Quinn 47-37

Tuesday, Mar 9, 2010

* Rasmussen has a new poll, but it’s a bit weird

Bill Brady 47
Pat Quinn 37

Here’s why…

The new survey finds Brady leading by 17 points among women but just three points among men.

We’ve known for a while that Quinn had trouble with women, but I cannot possibly see how the Democrat is trailing among women to a Republican by 17 points, while losing by just 3 among men.

The crosstabs (subscribers only) show Brady ahead of Quinn 50-33 among women and 45-42 among men. The crosstabs also show Quinn leading Brady among Democrats 63-21, while Brady leads Quinn among Republicans 82-10.

The only other poll we have is the Research 2000 for Daily Kos which had Quinn up 47-32 - an almost reverse image of this one. So, go figure.

Even Rasmussen has a bit of trouble with these results…

Brady’s numbers likely reflect at least a modest bounce from the news of his victory. Given Illinois’ strong Democratic leanings, the race is sure to tighten in the days ahead.

* Meanwhile, Rasmussen has support divided over whether the LG’s office should be eliminated

Should Illinois eliminate the position of lieutenant governor?
41% Yes
40% No
19% Not sure

- Posted by Rich Miller        


53 Comments
  1. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:26 pm:

    Good post Barton. A

    nd yes, those aren’t the numbers I would have expected either. It is kind of weird. Maybe we should wait for more polling before jump to conclusions.

    Speaking of Rasmussan and weird polling results:

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/3/8/843995/-Rasmussen-vs.-Everybody-Else


  2. - Moving to Oklahoma - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:26 pm:

    what? this aint right.


  3. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:26 pm:

    I don’t buy the Rasmussen poll at all, but Brady should be able to use it for fundraising.


  4. - Small Town Liberal - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:28 pm:

    Wow Rich, having 2 interns really allows them to show their stuff. Keep it coming guys.


  5. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:29 pm:

    Good lord. What if it is right?


  6. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:32 pm:

    Oops. My post. Used barton’s ‘puter and forgot to change the login name. Fixed.


  7. - Responsa - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:32 pm:

    Agree the Brady/Quinn Rasmussen results are somewhat strange. But I don’t think you can underestimate how the prisoner release program upset women specifically, and that that screwup is tied in their minds to Quinn. Also, one could argue that women these days are more keyed into the financial struggles and sacrifices and compromises they are making in their own homes and budgets, and they may not feel Quinn has been terribly effective in dealing with the state’s budget and the financial woes he is supposed to be managing.


  8. - Will County Woman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:33 pm:

    up until the last rasmussen poll before the primary that had hynes up by 6 percentage points i thought rasmussen was fairly reliable.

    i agree with word. if i’m brady i use this poll for fundraising and nothing else. do not blab about these polling results in front of the media. remain humble.


  9. - JonShibleyFan - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:33 pm:

    I have to say, VM, it isn’t that I think that’s a bad question, but I find it hard to even comprehend that question. Not because I think Quinn is so awesome, but because everything about this poll seems so…off.

    And I am the last one to cry foul on polls here.


  10. - Will County Woman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:38 pm:

    responsa and your post is why sheila simon will probably get the lt. gov nod. q


  11. - George - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:40 pm:

    polling fail.


  12. - Small Town Liberal - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:40 pm:

    Ah, c’mon Rich, you could have let Barton take the credit anyway.


  13. - LouisXIV - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:42 pm:

    Rasmussen is notoriously biased in favor of Republicans. It is not surprising that its crosstabs are not readily available. Dailykos uses Research 2000 and its crosstabs are always available for all to see. I can’t imagine that Brady’s win gave him all that much of a bounce and his first presser where he blasted Quinn for releasing a prisoner when he didn’t got him some pretty negative press out of the box.


  14. - Brennan - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:42 pm:

    Rasmussen uses IVR(Interactive Voice Response) technique for polling. I can’t find the source, but I read a release earlier today that NBC has told its news staff not to cite any pollsters using IVR technique.


  15. - JonShibleyFan - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:44 pm:

    ===do not blab about these polling results===

    WCW, from a tactical perspective, I somewhat disagree. The next campaign that wins with subtlety may be the first. You get a number like this, you sing it from the rooftops, especially at this stage of the campaign.

    You don’t know when you’ll get another one of these.


  16. - Amuzing Myself - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:44 pm:

    Wow. Unless they retract it, this will give Brady a huge momentum boost early.


  17. - George - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:45 pm:

    From Rasmussen’s memo:

    Just before the primary vote, a poll found Quinn trailing Hynes 43% to 37%.

    How did that turn out?


  18. - Will County Woman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:47 pm:

    hit the button too fast…

    quinn/simon will be pandering for women’s votes. but, it could very well backfire too. here’s why:

    it’s not enough for sheila simon to just be a woman. she has to have a stellar track record on something of import to women. as far as i can see, she doesn’t. she can’t claim to be a first and historic moment rally support that way because there was corrine wood.

    women can be and are very demanding and picky. those should not be viewed as faults. instead i think they are keen discriminating qualities. i think having simon on board as lt. gov would be seen for what is truly is: tokensim.

    it’s helping quinn in an area where he is politically very weak: with women.


  19. - N'ville - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:56 pm:

    Sounds like many of you should go out and start your own polling firms. You seem to be much smarter than Rasmussen.


  20. - just wonderin - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:57 pm:

    Who actually talks to pollsters these days?
    The last people with land lines willing to talk to strangers about their political views because they are either lonely or without more interesting activities to devote time to.


  21. - Will County Woman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 2:58 pm:

    jfs, if to blunt some of the NOW et al. vitriol, then yes. but, proceed with caution. brady would have to be very controlled and tight with this and i’m worried that he can’t/isn’t able to just yet. (sorry brady, but consider the last couple of weeks that you’ve had. just sayin’ ok?)


  22. - Steve - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:03 pm:

    It’s really hard to believe this poll. This is the Blue state of Illinois. But, heh Rasmussen is the most accurate polster but still…


  23. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:04 pm:

    The problem with Brady trying to use this poll to build momentum is what happens when the next poll comes out and shows him behind by two points?

    The only thing worth mentioning by Brady’s camp is that the poll shows the governor under 50%.

    Finally, Rich Whitney received over 360,000 votes in 2006. Any poll which doesn’t include him is severely flawed.


  24. - just wonderin - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:07 pm:

    Thank you Yellow Dog for mentioning Rich Whitney.
    Maybe Illinois will wind up being Green and not Red or Blue. Cause there are a lot of unhappy “independent” voters out there.


  25. - LouisXIV - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:07 pm:

    Steve,

    On what do you base your claim that “Rasmussen is the most accurate polster [sic}”?


  26. - Watching closely - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:09 pm:

    Why should we doubt, in the aftermath of a highly contentious primary, that these numbers could represent a somewhat legitimate snapshot of voters’ feelings about Pat Quinn? Dan Hynes just finished airing millions in ads bluntly questioning the governor’s competence and credibility. I don’t disagree that the race will tighten, but if the Quinn campaign isn’t partially freaked out, they sure as heck ought to be.


  27. - irish - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:11 pm:

    I would think that his voting record, recent bills that have come to light authored by Brady, his stand on social issues especially abortion rights, would cause women to vote against him. This poll doesn’t seem to bear this out.


  28. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:18 pm:

    The poll may be right, and this is why … there was ZERO Brady coverage in the primary in the Chicago media market, so the voters don’t know too much about Brady except “He ain’t Quinn” and then add the Repubs who are all against Quinn, and it might be a decent, yet wacky, snapshot of the moment.

    As both nominees “educate” the voters about their opponents, this is going to get really tight.

    This is also good news for Brady that maybe, just maybe, he can define himself in economic and budgetary terms before Quinn and Co. can define him as a “boogeyman”, from “against womens’ rights, supporter of gas chambers for dogs and even worse, against the rights of everyone to do anything you could do in a free society!”

    Take heed Jerry Clarke and Co., you still can define Bill Brady … but hurry!


  29. - Will County Woman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:32 pm:

    for the media brady, you should just say that you are very encouraged by these numbers, but you realize there is still a long way to go until the first tuesday in november. you will work hard between now and the first tuesday in november to increase your numbers and maintain a lead over quinn. you trust that the voters of illinois want a spirited and substantive campaign for on the issues that concern our quality of living, and that is the type of campaign you will bring to the people of illinois.

    for your fundraising efforts in the near future within the GOP play this poll up big time and milk it for all you can!


  30. - Rob N - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:33 pm:

    Amuzing Myself says, “Wow. Unless they retract it, this will give Brady a huge momentum boost early.”

    Not sure if that was intentionally meant to be funny, but my first thought was “Yep, just like Brady’s Springfield presser the other day… ‘It Will?’ instead of ‘It Is?’

    Others have already mentioned, but Ras’ results for some time now have notoriously bent toward the GOP. In contrast, Rich you mention the recent Research 2000 poll that showed Quinn up, a poll which was funded by Daily Kos.

    DKos actually had R2000 alter their baselines this month. That made their polling (in theory) more accurate by limiting to likely voters rather than simply vote-eligible adults. As a result the Dems took a hit in the week to week numbers (ie, Obama’s net numbers got worse).

    So, just because DKos funds the polling it doesn’t mean it’s biased.

    On the other hand, DKos contributor Jed Lewison also had a post up the other day noting how Rasmussen’s polls are so off-kilter they are single-handedly swinging composite polling averages toward the GOP. Jed also reported that in any given time period from 1/2009 til now Ras’ generic Congressional ballot polling has always had the most Republican results (his quote was “Every. Single. Time. Without fail.”)

    Who is funding all this consistently pro-GOP Ras polling?

    (Recall that right after Feb 2 Ras also had a pro-Kirk poll out. This was a week before several polls showed Giannoulias was ahead.)

    Ras and his mysterious funders are gaming the system.


  31. - Dnstateanon - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:41 pm:

    ===what? this aint right.===

    Why?

    Is it because you can’t stand Brady or you can’t believe a majority of the voters will?

    Maybe it is right maybe people understand that Blago/Quinn has run this state into the ground and are destroying any chance business has to create jobs and for people who are still working to keep theirs. They see Brady as someone who will bring some form Budget discipline back to the state giving business the confidence they need in the state to risk capitol to grow and create jobs.


  32. - Brennan - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 3:48 pm:

    Rob N: Why not compare Ras results to SurveyUSA or Public Policy Polling since all three use the IVR polling method?

    Warning: They might all share the same “mysterious funders”.


  33. - Concerned Observer - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 4:03 pm:

    I don’t buy this poll one bit. But we’ll see.

    And responsa, just an FYI…from the women I talk to, Bill Brady’s bill ‘to kill pets’ (yes, that’s what my mom called it…and yes, I know that’s not quite true) had at least as much of an impact as the prison release did.

    But there’s a lonnnnng way to go.


  34. - Amuzing Myself - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 4:06 pm:

    ===“Yep, just like Brady’s Springfield presser the other day… ‘It Will?’ instead of ‘It Is?’”===

    huh?


  35. - Annon 1654 - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 4:57 pm:

    “We’ve known for a while that Quinn had trouble with women, but I cannot possibly see how the Democrat is trailing among women to a Republican by 17 points, while losing by just 3 among men.”

    Have you looked at Quinn?

    Brady is hot and Quinn is not.

    I don’t care how educated you are, appearance is a factor….

    I voted for him because he’s cute… Hey some young women do.

    ROFL

    It’s early but this is good news!


  36. - Annon 1654 - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 4:58 pm:

    Ooops… correction. The sentence was supposed to be in quotes:

    “I voted for him because he’s cute” - answer when asked by a pollster why you would vote for Brady, lol.


  37. - ironman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 5:12 pm:

    I really don’t believe any of the polls. Look, they said dillard would win and they said mc Kenna would win and look who won..they also said murphy would win and plummer won. so i don’t take them very strongly


  38. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 5:14 pm:

    Bill Brady doesn’t think I should make as much money as I do because I’m a woman. That’s far scarier then the fictional early prison release stuff.


  39. - Louis Howe - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 5:17 pm:

    Polls in March for a Nov election aren’t worth much except general name-id and job performance. My democratic friends that think Bill Brady will be a push over don’t have a clear understanding of the power generated in an off year election like 1994. Mario Cuomo lost to a NY state senior. Ann Richards was beaten by a Texas “Village Idiot.” Pat Quinn is no Mario Cuomo, he isn’t even up to Ann Richard standards. In my opinion, he has a less than even chance of winning this Fall.


  40. - D.P. Gumby - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 5:32 pm:

    Does Brady have the Reagan-esque charisma to allow voters to ignore his extreme right-wing social positions and is Quinn so Carter-esque in his economic incompetence for voters to repudiate him even though they agree w/ him on most issues?


  41. - Will County Woman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 5:33 pm:

    Cheryl44, please.


  42. - Will County Woman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 5:40 pm:

    louis howe, the only person i can think to compare quinn to is jerry brown in california. their both flame-thrower types of the same era/similar mentalities. as things appear now, i think california. will have its first female gov because shtick is old.

    i really wish illinois had a credible woman with a business and political background running in the gov’s race and no dynastic political ties to weigh her down or cast a cloud over where her loylaties truly lie: with the people or her people?


  43. - Louis Howe - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 5:49 pm:

    WCW…Interesting comparison….But Quinn is not a Jerry Brown either…I’ve known Pat for 20 years…and I’m very disappointed in his management and scattered brain agenda…He claims to be a friend of taxpayers and then hires social workers and young attorneys to run state government. Very disappointing…


  44. - A femme view - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 6:10 pm:

    I can say from the coffee convo with my sisters…women are very disappointed in the Governor over the botched release plan. The more this story is revealed, the more damaging it will become. The GOP party will continue to hammer home the fact that victims of sexual assault, domestic violence, etc. were totally ignored by this administration. Public Safety is paramount with women.


  45. - Will County Woman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 6:13 pm:

    louis, i hope you were not offended by the comparison. to his credit brown has held many elective offices, as has quinn. but both have been around for a long time, though.

    the thing that reminds of jerry brown in pat quinn was the (most recent) time when brown was running for president. if memory serves it was the election cycle that clinton ultimately won in ‘92. brown’s “call my 800-number—every american, and contibute at least $1 to my campaign,” appeal is something i can picture quinn doing,but in his case at the state-level, and especially before he became a political insider. so, let’s say blago was still in office, but censured, and the field of dems contenders had been crowded in the primary. i could’ve totally seen quinn doing something like brown did to bring attention to himself.


  46. - scoot - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 7:48 pm:

    If Brady is able to define himself to the suburbs before the Dems beat him to it…then he will have positioned himself to have an actual shot in the fall. Moderates & independents are crucial for him to have any success.

    He has to create the right message/theme and stick to it like a “robot” through Labor Day. I’m not exactly sure what to do with Plummer, most Lt Guv candidates are meaningless anyways..BUT Mark Kirk is a huge plus atop the ticket.

    This may actually be a race…


  47. - storman norman - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 7:57 pm:

    I think the over one month of media coverage to the tight race between Brady and Dillard helped Brady. Brady ought to thank Dillard for extending his concession speech!!


  48. - Beowulf - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 8:06 pm:

    The point was made by Irish @ 3:11 PM that women might be inclined to vote for Quinn over Brady because of Brady’s Pro-Life beliefs. What Irish may fail to realize is that there is a very significant percentage of Illinois women that are Pro-Life rather than Pro-Choice.
    I,too, would have to scratch my head about the seeming abnormally large percentile of voters that support Brady over Quinn in the Rassmussen poll. But even if Rasmussen is off by 5% points, I am inclined to believe that Quinn had better hope that Brady steps into quicksand somewhere between now and November.Quinn has been seen as “Jerry Ford Jr.” since taking over from Blagojevich. Pat Quinn has become the state icon for the “loveable but inept bungler” who stumbled into something that was beyond his capabilities despite his good intentions.


  49. - Louis Howe - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 8:33 pm:

    WCW…Your Jerry Brown comparison is right on, except, Jerry Brown is a major league player, and Quinn, well, isn’t quite up to the same standard. Personally, I like Pat Quinn. Politically, I am very much aligned with his progressive agenda. But he’s been a disaster in his management and execution. Democrats have a special responsibility to run state government efficiently. Unfortunately, Madigan and Company have made a mess and Quinn isn’t strong enough to clean it up.


  50. - PPHS - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 8:57 pm:

    I am a Republican and I can’t imagine that Brady is leading by that much.

    I agree that no one talks to these poll takers, anymore.


  51. - Rob_N - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 10:45 pm:

    Brennan says, “Rob N: Why not compare Ras results to SurveyUSA or Public Policy Polling since all three use the IVR polling method?”

    Click the link I provided. That research was done for you and I.

    Rasmussen is routinely so far out in “right” field he literally pulls the polling average toward conservatives — on poll after poll (not just Illinois guv, not just national generics… almost every poll done).

    Amuzing Myself says, “Huh?”

    Well put. ;)

    I suggest you read Rich’s post about Brady’s botched Springfield presser from the other day.

    Just keep clicking ‘previous post’ til you get to the one covering Brady’s dumbfounded “It is?” line.


  52. - T.J. - Tuesday, Mar 9, 10 @ 11:45 pm:

    “Good lord. What if it is right?”

    It makes the past month of posts here a whole lot funnier.


  53. - Amuzing Myself - Wednesday, Mar 10, 10 @ 1:02 am:

    Rob N.

    I got the part about the presser, but I thought maybe there was more “there” there. Wow… that’s a reach.


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* Teachers (Deborah Meier).
* Straight out of Brooklyn.
* Tony at the Red Line Tap.
* Teachers (Margaret Mead).


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




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