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*** UPDATED w/ Video *** POLL: Brady leads Quinn, Kirk over Giannoulias, Home prices, National Guard

Friday, Apr 30, 2010

[Posted by Barton Lorimor. Video by Dan Weber]

* The latest Rasmussen poll puts Republican Sen. Bill Brady ahead of Gov. Pat Quinn by seven percentage points. Five percent of the respondents favor another candidate and 11 percent have yet to decide. From Rasmussen…

Brady posted a 47% to 37% lead over Quinn in early March just after the former was officially declared the GOP nominee by a 193-vote margin out of 750,000 cast.

The two are battling most notably these days over an income tax hike the governor has proposed as an alternative to a $1.3 billion cut in education funding.

Forty percent (40%) of voters in the state now approve of Quinn’s handling of the governorship, down three points from the previous survey. Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove. This includes seven percent (7%) who Strongly Approve and 28% who Strongly Disapprove.

* Rasmussen also showed Republican Congressman Mark Kirk leading state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in the U.S. Senate race…

Kirk now attracts 46% support in Illinois’ race for the U.S. Senate, up from 41% in early April. Support for Giannoulias is at 38%, virtually unchanged from the previous survey but down from March, when he earned 44% of the vote. Five percent (5%) currently support some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.

Kirk picked up 46% to Giannoulias’ 40% in the first survey after the two won their party primaries in February. But the race was a virtual toss-up by March. Still, despite the Broadway Bank controversy, Kirk has been unable to push past his previous high. Giannoulias got a much-sought-after boost of support from President Obama after the survey was taken, so it’s unclear at this point whether the bank issue has caused the candidate any long-term damage in a state that has trended Democratic in recent years.

* Meanwhile, homeowners believe their home is worth more than their mortgage….

Forty-seven percent said their house was worth more than they owe on the mortgage, but 44 percent believed they owed more than their house was worth.

And…

Other polls conducted by Rasmussen included a poll that questioned how the violence in some Illinois neighborhoods should or should not be handled.

It was determined that 37 percent were in favor of using the National Guard to fight crime in violent neighborhoods, while 48 percent were not. Sixteen percent were not sure.

Since the poll was conducted statewide, it was unclear whether those polled actually lived in the violent neighborhoods mentioned.

You may recall earlier this week state Reps. Fritchey and Ford suggested Gov. Quinn deploy the National Guard to Chicago to control violence. The governor said he would only send troops with Mayor Daley’s approval.

*** UPDATE 2 p.m. *** A day after the redistricting plan introduced by Senate Democrats was defeated in the House by two votes, Sen. Kwame Raoul had some harsh words for Gov. Pat Quinn. Raoul, who became chairman of the Senate Redistricting Committee last fall, spoke against Quinn for not falling behind the plan. Here’s Raoul speaking with CapFax intern Dan Weber on the Senate floor earlier today….


- Posted by Barton Lorimor        


31 Comments
  1. - Leatherneck - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 12:44 pm:

    Why haven’t any of the polls we’ve seen on the governor’s race even shown the Greens and Rich Whitney as an option (unless Whitney represents the “other candidate” that has 5% support)? It would be interesting to see what the numbers would be if the polls showed a three-way race.

    And with SLC saying recently that he might consider entering the race, I’m surprised no one has already put out a hypothetical 4-way gubernatorial race poll (with SLC and Whitney).


  2. - Ghost - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 1:04 pm:

    interesting that Brady has slipped a bit. If anything with what Quinn has ben doing he should have increased his lead.

    just imaginbe if Quinn actually compaigned….


  3. - Adam Smith - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 1:10 pm:

    Kirk has a roughly ten point swing without spending a dime, spending over 50% of his time in DC (doing the job he was elected to do), and as he racks up a big $$$ lead.

    Alexi has about 60 days to not just stop the slide but start a comeback. That will be hard to do without spending big money he can ill afford.


  4. - Amuzing Myself - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 1:14 pm:

    Ghost:

    You can’t possibly have been paying attention if you think there’s been nothing but Quinn bumbling. There’s been over a week of negative Brady tax stories, and Quinn has attacked Brady a couple of other times for the environment, jobs, etc. That Brady hasn’t seen much measurable harm this last week has to be encouraging for the Brady camp.


  5. - OneMan - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 1:22 pm:

    Alexi isn’t going anyplace. He is in to stay, however at this point if I was him I wouldn’t be thrilled with those number, no would I be that bummed.


  6. - fed up - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 1:35 pm:

    I thuink alexi and Quinn are both doing well considering what they have been dealing with recently.If nothing else pops up the recent problems will be forgotten come november.


  7. - RMW Stanford - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 1:37 pm:

    I would say that this poll, on it own, indicates very little movement in the Governor’s race since the last Rasmussen poll. The difference between 47%-37% and 45%-38% is pretty marginal and could be the results of a statistical quirks as much as any movements downward on Brady’s party or upward on Governor Quinn’s


  8. - VanillaMan - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 1:47 pm:

    I’m still surprised with Brady’s numbers.
    I just may have to get use to this.

    The poll is really bad for Giannoulais, high enough to stay in the race, and low enough that it won’t be much of a race. I think that is where it will remain too. Kirk isn’t making a mistake. Giannoulais is going to have to place defense for the rest of his campaign, or until Election Day.

    Both of these seats are gone while this economy, this mood, this trial, and these incumbants hang around. Six months isn’t enough. Blagojevich’s circus is just opening. This economy isn’t going anywhere. This budget crisis isn’t getting resolved. Doing nothing but fingerpointing isn’t going to do it for Democrats this time around.


  9. - Team Sleep - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 1:49 pm:

    I too am curious if there will be a bump from Obama’s “town hall” in Quincy. It certainly cannot hurt Alexi. Unless a politician is 100& radioactive (like Bush in 2007 or Blago in 2008), it never really works for a candidate to paint his opponent as “desperate” when bringing in or utilizing a friend.


  10. - Team Sleep - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 1:52 pm:

    Sorry, that should have been 100%.


  11. - Stallion - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 2:09 pm:

    Im with Quinn, Raoul is not the right guy to lead that legislation through… We need someone more educated, like say Kevin Joyce…


  12. - Steve-O - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 2:21 pm:

    Alexi’s getting out. It’s getting leaked out this afternoon.


  13. - Bill we hardly know ya - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 2:25 pm:

    We’ll see if Brady stays ahead once more voters find out he wouldn’t allow a woman to choose abortion, even in the case of rape.


  14. - fedup dem - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 2:38 pm:

    Note to Leatherneck & Co.: Rasmussen is notorious nationwide for its Republican slant in its polling methods and survey techniques. The pollsters there are far too busy trying to prop up GOP hopefuls to bother with any third-party candidate (unless forced to).


  15. - Niles Township - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 2:39 pm:

    Kwame needs to understand that the governor gets to say what he wants to, and doesn’t have to run it by him (maybe by Mike, but not by Kwame).


  16. - InDupage - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 2:48 pm:

    It’s all inside baseball at this point…Polls mean nothing until after Labor Day. That said, given the week Brady’s had, I’m a little surprised he’s still up that much.


  17. - Adam Smith - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 2:49 pm:

    Steve-O,

    It’s going to take a little more than that to get a rumor started. Besides, this is the first week where anything even remotely good has happened for Alexi since the primary. He may not have actually lost ground the last five days.

    Unless Alexi’s internals are much worse than the Rassmussen numbers, he should see how the next few weeks go.

    I still think he loses in November.


  18. - Stallion - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 2:58 pm:

    Niles-Township, well put.
    Im guessing that maybe Kwame is positioning himself for something..


  19. - VanillaMan - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 3:02 pm:

    I’m sorry Sen. Kwame Raoul went through all that work, but it wasn’t for nothing. The writing was on the wall earlier this month that he was going to have some problems, but I don’t think he saw Quinn’s two cents providing enough coverage for a couple shaky members.


  20. - VanillaMan - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 3:04 pm:

    Polls mean nothing until after Labor Day. Not anymore. Not in this day of manic fundraising. Being down in the polls squeezes off contributions for use after Labor Day.


  21. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 3:07 pm:

    I think the Alexi/Kirk race is interesting. You’d think that Kirk, with his textbook resume, should be spiking against Alexi, who’s had a couple of months of really gut-punching bad news.

    Long way to November. Kirk’s going to have to get out there and connect at some point. Alexi, with nothing to lose, should rent the RV and have an excellent spring road trip across the state. He’s a very good retail candidate.

    Alexi’s a young man. He would be wise to gut this one out no matter what. Dropping out would be an admission of guilt about something. Getting up after you’ve been knocked down is admired by most.


  22. - OneMan - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 3:08 pm:

    Alexi’s getting out. It’s getting leaked out this afternoon.

    Yeah right….


  23. - Team America - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 3:09 pm:

    Um, Wordslinger, this is a blue state. Alexi’s supposed to be WINNING. The spike is on the wrong shoe.


  24. - Bubs - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 3:09 pm:

    Polls in April are about as helpful as World Series predictions. They give a rough idea, but you have to play the games. The only real impact is in fundraising.


  25. - JonShibleyFan - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 3:16 pm:

    “The writing was on the wall earlier this month that he was going to have some problems”

    Raoul was going to have some problems?


  26. - dupage dan - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 3:30 pm:

    Team America is right. Kirk is down 2 points just by being a republican in a blue state trying to wrest away control of “Obama’s” senate seat. The fact that he is up this much is due not so much to him but the horrific state of the democratic party right now. Alexi’s bank problem is behind the gap and it ain’t likely to get better.

    Steve-O is gone-O.


  27. - Downstater - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 3:49 pm:

    I think the poll numbers will further solidify once the Blago reality show (ie. trial) gets underway.


  28. - Bill we hardly know ya - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 6:07 pm:

    Heard Bill Brady took off for the Kentucky Derby today.

    Thank you Obama stimulus package.


  29. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 6:30 pm:

    –Um, Wordslinger, this is a blue state. Alexi’s supposed to be WINNING. –

    After everything that’s gone on? Give me a break. I’m tool old to recognize the Blue and Red state nonsense — I remember, not too long ago when California and Illinois were solid GOP and Texas was Democratic.


  30. - Goodluck - Friday, Apr 30, 10 @ 11:38 pm:

    ===I’m still surprised with Brady’s numbers.
    I just may have to get use to this.===

    You think?
    It’s pretty hard to have a 58% disapproval rating and expect to win, you should have a number somewhat close to a majority of the voters who want to vote for you to expect to win.


  31. - Rich Miller - Sunday, May 2, 10 @ 11:08 pm:

    Steve-O, how did that prediction work out for you? Don’t pull that stunt again or you’ll find yourself banned.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Good morning!
* Final thoughts before calling it a night
* *** UPDATED x3 - Script *** Quinn airs radio ad of Rauner joking about being "scared" of four African-Americans
* Karen Lewis endorses Chuy Garcia for mayor
* Friday night TV ad rating
* Yesterday's blog posts

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