SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x2 *** Halvorson begs to differ

Tuesday, Oct 12, 2010

* The Hill’s poll last week had Republican Adam Kinzinger crushing freshman Congresscritter Debbie Halvorson 49-31. Democrats, however, said the poll looked weird because the universe had changed so drastically. President Obama, for instance, won the 11th District with 53 percent two years ago, but the universe in The Hill’s poll had just 41 percent of likely voters saying they voted for him, compared to John McCain’s 47.

So, the Halvorson campaign decided to release its own numbers. They say they’re behind, but only by four points

* Adam Kinzinger leads, but only by a small 45% to 41% margin. This is an extremely close race, and the momentum seems to be on Halvorson’s side after her strong early buy on Chicago broadcast television.

* Halvorson is getting movement with key subgroups. She leads with women and she leads with union households in one of the heaviest union districts in the country. Even though independents are breaking against Democrats in many districts, Halvorson and Kinzinger are in a virtual dead heat among them (40% Kinzinger / 37% Halvorson).

Anzalone Liszt claims that Kinzinger’s lead has been halved since August, and that her 2000 ratings points on the teevee has helped make this thing close. Methodology…

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 general election voters in IL CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 5-7, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, and interviews were apportioned geographically based on expected voters turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for n=500 is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.

Keep in mind that this is a candidate poll, so take it for what it’s worth. However, a whole lotta Illinois Dems are relying on Anzalone Liszt this year. If they’re wrong, then there will be plenty of unpleasant surprises all around.

*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Kinzinger campaign…

Hey Rich:

FYI - Halvorson went dark last friday and has canceled all other time…while DCCC has canceled all but 400K for her for the final week (they previously had scheduled 1.4 mill …then were at 1.1 mill until this latest cancel).

Checking…

*** UPDATE 2 *** From the Halvorson campaign…

We’re still up on Chicago broadcast today (I confirmed that with our firm).

From what I know, the DCCC hasn’t allocated the funds for Chicago broadcast to any of the big three races at this point. I’ll certainly let you know when they do.

* Congressional roundup…

* Fueled by growing voter anger, Schilling trying to unseat Hare

* Hare defends efforts to attract jobs: “I’m not going to sit back and just watch and go, ‘Well, you know, I know they need the money and I know it would put people to work, but I just, I don’t want to be criticized for doing it,’” Hare said. “If I could get a plant located here in this community and I knew it would take federal money to do it, I will tell you, I’d go to work on it tomorrow morning.” Terry Schilling, son and campaign manager for the GOP candidate, responded that, “The only thing that Representative Hare has built is $5 trillion of debt for our children and grandchildren.”

* Schoenburg: Hare-Schilling back-and-forth intensifies: Six months ago, a self-described “tea party blogger” from suburban St. Louis said “Jackpot” when U.S. Rep. PHIL HARE, D-Rock Island, gave the perfect sound bite for the YouTube age. As it turns out, TV stations might be the real jackpot winners. A conservative Iowa-based group says it is spending $500,000 to air an advertisement that includes the video of Hare’s comments.

* VIDEO: Phil Hare talks about why he’s running for office during an interview with The State Journal-Register editorial board.

* Congressional candidates talk Gulf oil spill

* The Race to Replace Mark Kirk

* Jesse Jackson Jr.’s GOP Opponent Gains Traction

* U.S. House race pits veteran against newcomer

* Manzullo overwhelming Gaulrapp in fundraising department

- Posted by Rich Miller        


14 Comments
  1. - Liandro - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:22 pm:

    It would make sense for far less of likely voters to have supported Obama–if, in fact, there is an enthusiasm gap. It would be exactly moderate/lean-left Obama voters that would be less likely to vote in such a scenario. Basically, Halvorson is saying that the political climate isn’t what…well, what the political climate is. She thinks she’s running in a world where Obama focused all his attention on the economy instead of health care, where unemployment dropped dramatically, and where voters aren’t mad at the party in power. Paint me skeptical.


  2. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:33 pm:

    Grasping at straws here?
    “We’re only losing by…”

    Incumbents are not supposed to depend on their own polls to show them losing instead of losing big.

    Tack on an additional GOP 4% to any poll during any midterm and run your campaign like that. Halvorson’s district only gave her 2 points down during a presidential year. That means she would be naturally down 6 points during any midterm. She needed to have been out of the gate or having a perpetual campaign for this district.Debbie blew it in a district drawn to not allow Democrats to assume reelections.

    “We are only losing by…”

    Madigan is campaigning. Any questions about what reality is suggesting out there?,

    What I have been seeing is campaign games being played by professional staffers trying to scrape a loss from their shoes. Blaming Halvorson. Her staff has been running amok since July when it seems they first got a whiff of the stench of inevitatable defeat.

    Hare is worse. His district is supposed to be safe, but he has been such a flop even his party is no longer supporting him..

    Two thing have to happen for an incumbent to lose. They have to screw up and they have to have a great opponent. Kinzinger and Schilling both turned out to be great campaigners and Halvorson and Hare have both screwed up.

    “They will only lose by…” - who gives a fig, other than the professionals behind these losers? They want to be paid and no one is sending their meal ticket incumbents any more money.

    So they do this stupid stunt.


  3. - jokat - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:43 pm:

    What I’d like to know (and we should in a few days) is how Halvorson intends to close the remaining gap which is likely wider than her poll states?

    She has been on broadcast TV for the last three or four weeks, so how much can she have left in the bank? If the DCCC doesn’t come in, I don’t see how she makes up any remaining ground because she can’t continue airing nearly as many points on broadcast.


  4. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:58 pm:

    ===If the DCCC doesn’t come in, I don’t see how she makes up any remaining ground because she can’t continue airing nearly as many points on broadcast. ===

    All good points.


  5. - Dozer - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:07 pm:

    ditto in the DCCC. they are up and running in Seals and Hare I believe. I think they saw the writing on the wall and shifted resources. If it was that close, they would be inthere banging away.

    their lack of participation is telling and if they don’t jump back in they’ve written it off.


  6. - fedup dem - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:23 pm:

    Should Halvorson lose (Heaven Forbid!), you will probably see the next Congressional remap take care of the lost House seat by bunching together Kinzinger and Aaron Schock into a single central Illinois district (considering that Kinzinger resides in the southern portion of the 11th, not that far from Schock’s Peoria base, this would not be a difficult task). This would insure that one of them would be ousted into the political wilderness in 2012.


  7. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:33 pm:

    Is Kinzinger on TV down south? I don’t think I’ve seen anything from him on Chicago stations, while Halvorson’s negative Social Security spot has been on constantly.


  8. - Matthew_Rocket_Boy - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:03 pm:

    I used to see a ton of Halvy adds and not I don’t see any. It does appear she isn’t on network anymore. I see a lot of Kinzinger’s stuff on cable. I would expect to see more though.
    As far as where Kinzinger lives . . . I think he moved to the North part of the District prior to the primary. It is either Manteno or Peotone. It could be a battle between Kinzinger and Jesse Jackson Jr in the next general.


  9. - OneMan - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:06 pm:

    Yes the redraw could be interesting to say the least. It would also be interesting to see how they redraw the 14th if Foster loses and if he wins if the make it more northerly.


  10. - Bubs - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:14 pm:

    Halvorson’s attack ads are very effective. TV time may be her only hope this late.


  11. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 3:32 pm:

    Looks like StateWideTom is running out of gas Now he is making his targets give money back
    Check McCarthy’s opponent
    Maybe it is for more groovy billboards.
    BTW word is the Newt Peoria caper headlined yesterday will be B.u.s.t.
    Whadda shame


  12. - fed up - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 5:27 pm:

    Dear fed up Dem, The problam with the remap will be the population loss from the city of Chicago. The collar counties are seeing big gains while the city and cook co. will be net losers. The fight over the lost seat will be intense if the projections hold true.


  13. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 6:03 pm:

    Down here in McLean County I have not seen any ads for Kinzinger–got a couple of flyers from him. He probably thinks he has this part of the district sewed up since he grew up here.

    I have not seen that many yard signs for our favorite son, however. Kind of suprising with all the Brady signs out there.

    Like I said last week, it will be the rest of the district that will win or lose it for Debby Halvorson.


  14. - bored now - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 6:42 pm:

    halvorson’s campaign has a point. *if* foster is doing as well as his poll says, then the dccc may move the time reserved for him over to them. i wouldn’t be too confident at this point one way or another, *but* her campaign is finally locked and loaded (probably too late), and getting over their resistance to cooperate with others. we’ll see this weekend…


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Sunday leaders meeting notes: Madigan counts the minutes, Republicans claim "new level of stalling"
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Samsung Gear S2 scores major ‘Value Pack’ update centered on Gear S3 functions
* [TA Deals] Get The Complete Android N Developer Course for $19
* 'Weak Demand' for VR and AR Causing Concerns for Companies Investing in the Technology
* Google’s new Trusted Contacts app lets you share your location in emergencies
* HMD CEO says to expect ‘wide’ Nokia smartphone portfolio, global focus ‘from day one’
* These photos could be a first look at BlackBerry’s new QWERTY handset
* Freshly pictured BlackBerry QWERTY phone could well be in-house DTEK70/Mercury

* White Sox rebuild set to begin at Meetings?
* Several teams showing interest in Sale
* White Sox plans could clear up at Meetings
* Lawrie, Garcia settle with White Sox for 2017
* Garcia, Lawrie settle with White Sox for 2017
* Peace & glove: Owners, players reach CBA deal
* White Sox plans could clear up at Meetings

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Illinois Legislators Sue Over Pay Delay - Peori.....
* Rauner names members of Illinois Bicentennial C.....
* U of I Projection Says Budget Gap Would Take 10.....
* U of I Study Projection Says Budget Gap Would T.....
* U of I Study Says Budget Gap Would Take 10+ Yea.....
* Illinois Policy | Illinois' comeback story star.....
* Parkland’s Trustee Convincing Board Members to .....
* Morning Spin: City Clerk Mendoza to take oath a.....
* Comptroller Susana Mendoza could have power to .....
* Six Illinois Democrats Sue Comptroller Over Leg.....


* North Dakota pipeline protesters vow to stay despite victory
* Man captured in killing of Chicago-area security guard
* EXCHANGE: Couple grateful for gravestone picture return
* After major victory, ND pipeline protesters to defy deadline
* Federal government blocks Dakota Access oil pipeline route
* Purple Christmas lights honor 'Purple Rain' singer
* Another year of financial uncertainty looms for Illinois
* More private college presidents top $2M in pay, study finds
* The Latest: Sheriff's office lifts blockade at protest camp
* The Latest: No progress from meetings on Illinois budget

* Another year of financial uncertainty looms for Illinois
* Lawmakers sue comptroller for not paying them
* Electronic road signs are dark near Effingham due to budget
* State lawmakers vote to spare 2 nuclear plants
* Legislature OKs Exelon subsidy plan, goes to Rauner
* Rauner: No more stopgap budgets without property tax freeze, term limits
* Illinois shutters nation's last prison roundhouse
* Clinton nuclear plant has history of cost, job uncertainty
* AFSCME files lawsuit over labor contract
* Rauner to Dems: No budget without term limits, property tax freeze

* Keep your eye on these top young Chicago CEOs
* Ann Nathan, matriarch of River North Gallery scene, is closing
* NU's Schapiro tops U of C's Zimmer as highest-paid Illinois college president
* Like our roundup? Share it around.


* Jessica Chastain reveals political dirty tricks in ‘Miss Sloane’
* Woman gives birth in SUV in Grand Boulevard on way to hospital
* Obama guidance, press schedule Dec. 5, 2016
* Trump taps Ben Carson to be HUD secretary
* Man, 78, dies after being struck by vehicle in Des Plaines
* 3 wounded in Humboldt Park shooting
* Police: Man fatally shot in Chatham
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Dec. 5, 2016
* Dear Abby: Our child’s friends need help on fees
* 3 shot, 1 seriously, in Near West Side


* Morning Spin: City Clerk Mendoza to take oath as state comptroller today
* Hammond mayor plans to close city court, says Pence judge appointment is 'big middle finger'
* Arrest in slaying of security guard in Harvey
* 10 thoughts on the Bears' 26-6 win over the 49ers
* North Dakota protesters vow to stay despite major victory to reroute oil pipeline
* Run-down Oakland warehouse was a 'death trap,' former tenant says; at least 33 dead
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 12/5/16
* New Zealand's John Key to step down as prime minister
* President-elect Donald Trump taps Ben Carson as housing secretary
* In helping kids select college, parents along for more than the ride


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Our View: Susana Mendoza, be a voice of reason for the state’s finances
* Lisa Madigan: Illinois needs to protect children from lead exposure
* Another year of financial uncertainty looms for Illinois
* Our View: Fall veto session leaves Illinois in worse state than before
* Bernard Schoenburg: Divine intervention on budget? Still waiting
* Statehouse Insider: No budget deal; see you in January
* Angie Muhs: New sports editor to start at the SJ-R
* Amy Voils: How do I really help the homeless?
* Jason Dockter: LLCC a leader in online education
* A home for the holidays: How do I really help the homeless?


* After snowstorm, rain, freezing rain on the way
* Goodfellow Fund 12/5/16
* How government seizes property
* Civilian police board prepares for proposal
* 'Moana' continues its run at the top
* Soup kitchen's move is underway
* Urbana thrift shop benefits the needy
* Dr. Sally Foote/Pet Talk: Practice proper play
* Democrats back Weibel for county board chair
* Abortion has led to corruption


* Trump taps former campaign rival Carson as housing secretary
* Crash on I-90 near Barrington Road causing delays
* Dawn Patrol: First snowfall of the season blankets suburbs
* Mourinho irritable as Man United keep throwing away points
* Sub-.500 bowl teams now becoming almost routine

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Sen. Dick Durbin Unveils Protection Effort......

* SEIU leaders say planned Monday strike by ......

* Congressman Gutierrez calls for fight against Trump
* 13 Facts that Should Be Etched on Castro’s Tombstone and Highlighted in Every Obituary
* Rauner-Appointed Commission Continues Battle Against Religious Freedom in Illinois
* Energy Poverty Is Much Worse for the Poor Than Climate Change
* Mapping the Frontier for the Next Generation of American Health Care
* Illinois House stops voter registration effort for non-citizens
* Are Regulations Causing Pain at the Pump?
* Summertime reminiscences appropriate – even if Chicago memories fall short
* Trump’s Carrier hocus pocus. Sanders says it stinks. AFL CIO is quiet. UPDATED: Steelworkers union supports Trump/Carrier deal.
* Standing Rock Tribe’s Chairman David Archambault II statement on the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers decision to not grant easement.


* Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Brings Lowest Fatality Rate In Six Years
* Governor Announces Appointments to Illinois Bicentennial Commission
* Stateville Correctional Center’s F House Officially Closed
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* IEMA Highlights Safety during the Holidays - Encourages holiday shoppers to give preparedness gifts this year




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller