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*** UPDATED x2 *** Halvorson begs to differ

Tuesday, Oct 12, 2010

* The Hill’s poll last week had Republican Adam Kinzinger crushing freshman Congresscritter Debbie Halvorson 49-31. Democrats, however, said the poll looked weird because the universe had changed so drastically. President Obama, for instance, won the 11th District with 53 percent two years ago, but the universe in The Hill’s poll had just 41 percent of likely voters saying they voted for him, compared to John McCain’s 47.

So, the Halvorson campaign decided to release its own numbers. They say they’re behind, but only by four points

* Adam Kinzinger leads, but only by a small 45% to 41% margin. This is an extremely close race, and the momentum seems to be on Halvorson’s side after her strong early buy on Chicago broadcast television.

* Halvorson is getting movement with key subgroups. She leads with women and she leads with union households in one of the heaviest union districts in the country. Even though independents are breaking against Democrats in many districts, Halvorson and Kinzinger are in a virtual dead heat among them (40% Kinzinger / 37% Halvorson).

Anzalone Liszt claims that Kinzinger’s lead has been halved since August, and that her 2000 ratings points on the teevee has helped make this thing close. Methodology…

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 general election voters in IL CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 5-7, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, and interviews were apportioned geographically based on expected voters turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for n=500 is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.

Keep in mind that this is a candidate poll, so take it for what it’s worth. However, a whole lotta Illinois Dems are relying on Anzalone Liszt this year. If they’re wrong, then there will be plenty of unpleasant surprises all around.

*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Kinzinger campaign…

Hey Rich:

FYI - Halvorson went dark last friday and has canceled all other time…while DCCC has canceled all but 400K for her for the final week (they previously had scheduled 1.4 mill …then were at 1.1 mill until this latest cancel).


*** UPDATE 2 *** From the Halvorson campaign…

We’re still up on Chicago broadcast today (I confirmed that with our firm).

From what I know, the DCCC hasn’t allocated the funds for Chicago broadcast to any of the big three races at this point. I’ll certainly let you know when they do.

* Congressional roundup…

* Fueled by growing voter anger, Schilling trying to unseat Hare

* Hare defends efforts to attract jobs: “I’m not going to sit back and just watch and go, ‘Well, you know, I know they need the money and I know it would put people to work, but I just, I don’t want to be criticized for doing it,’” Hare said. “If I could get a plant located here in this community and I knew it would take federal money to do it, I will tell you, I’d go to work on it tomorrow morning.” Terry Schilling, son and campaign manager for the GOP candidate, responded that, “The only thing that Representative Hare has built is $5 trillion of debt for our children and grandchildren.”

* Schoenburg: Hare-Schilling back-and-forth intensifies: Six months ago, a self-described “tea party blogger” from suburban St. Louis said “Jackpot” when U.S. Rep. PHIL HARE, D-Rock Island, gave the perfect sound bite for the YouTube age. As it turns out, TV stations might be the real jackpot winners. A conservative Iowa-based group says it is spending $500,000 to air an advertisement that includes the video of Hare’s comments.

* VIDEO: Phil Hare talks about why he’s running for office during an interview with The State Journal-Register editorial board.

* Congressional candidates talk Gulf oil spill

* The Race to Replace Mark Kirk

* Jesse Jackson Jr.’s GOP Opponent Gains Traction

* U.S. House race pits veteran against newcomer

* Manzullo overwhelming Gaulrapp in fundraising department

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Liandro - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:22 pm:

    It would make sense for far less of likely voters to have supported Obama–if, in fact, there is an enthusiasm gap. It would be exactly moderate/lean-left Obama voters that would be less likely to vote in such a scenario. Basically, Halvorson is saying that the political climate isn’t what…well, what the political climate is. She thinks she’s running in a world where Obama focused all his attention on the economy instead of health care, where unemployment dropped dramatically, and where voters aren’t mad at the party in power. Paint me skeptical.

  2. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:33 pm:

    Grasping at straws here?
    “We’re only losing by…”

    Incumbents are not supposed to depend on their own polls to show them losing instead of losing big.

    Tack on an additional GOP 4% to any poll during any midterm and run your campaign like that. Halvorson’s district only gave her 2 points down during a presidential year. That means she would be naturally down 6 points during any midterm. She needed to have been out of the gate or having a perpetual campaign for this district.Debbie blew it in a district drawn to not allow Democrats to assume reelections.

    “We are only losing by…”

    Madigan is campaigning. Any questions about what reality is suggesting out there?,

    What I have been seeing is campaign games being played by professional staffers trying to scrape a loss from their shoes. Blaming Halvorson. Her staff has been running amok since July when it seems they first got a whiff of the stench of inevitatable defeat.

    Hare is worse. His district is supposed to be safe, but he has been such a flop even his party is no longer supporting him..

    Two thing have to happen for an incumbent to lose. They have to screw up and they have to have a great opponent. Kinzinger and Schilling both turned out to be great campaigners and Halvorson and Hare have both screwed up.

    “They will only lose by…” - who gives a fig, other than the professionals behind these losers? They want to be paid and no one is sending their meal ticket incumbents any more money.

    So they do this stupid stunt.

  3. - jokat - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:43 pm:

    What I’d like to know (and we should in a few days) is how Halvorson intends to close the remaining gap which is likely wider than her poll states?

    She has been on broadcast TV for the last three or four weeks, so how much can she have left in the bank? If the DCCC doesn’t come in, I don’t see how she makes up any remaining ground because she can’t continue airing nearly as many points on broadcast.

  4. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:58 pm:

    ===If the DCCC doesn’t come in, I don’t see how she makes up any remaining ground because she can’t continue airing nearly as many points on broadcast. ===

    All good points.

  5. - Dozer - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:07 pm:

    ditto in the DCCC. they are up and running in Seals and Hare I believe. I think they saw the writing on the wall and shifted resources. If it was that close, they would be inthere banging away.

    their lack of participation is telling and if they don’t jump back in they’ve written it off.

  6. - fedup dem - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:23 pm:

    Should Halvorson lose (Heaven Forbid!), you will probably see the next Congressional remap take care of the lost House seat by bunching together Kinzinger and Aaron Schock into a single central Illinois district (considering that Kinzinger resides in the southern portion of the 11th, not that far from Schock’s Peoria base, this would not be a difficult task). This would insure that one of them would be ousted into the political wilderness in 2012.

  7. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:33 pm:

    Is Kinzinger on TV down south? I don’t think I’ve seen anything from him on Chicago stations, while Halvorson’s negative Social Security spot has been on constantly.

  8. - Matthew_Rocket_Boy - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:03 pm:

    I used to see a ton of Halvy adds and not I don’t see any. It does appear she isn’t on network anymore. I see a lot of Kinzinger’s stuff on cable. I would expect to see more though.
    As far as where Kinzinger lives . . . I think he moved to the North part of the District prior to the primary. It is either Manteno or Peotone. It could be a battle between Kinzinger and Jesse Jackson Jr in the next general.

  9. - OneMan - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:06 pm:

    Yes the redraw could be interesting to say the least. It would also be interesting to see how they redraw the 14th if Foster loses and if he wins if the make it more northerly.

  10. - Bubs - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:14 pm:

    Halvorson’s attack ads are very effective. TV time may be her only hope this late.

  11. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 3:32 pm:

    Looks like StateWideTom is running out of gas Now he is making his targets give money back
    Check McCarthy’s opponent
    Maybe it is for more groovy billboards.
    BTW word is the Newt Peoria caper headlined yesterday will be B.u.s.t.
    Whadda shame

  12. - fed up - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 5:27 pm:

    Dear fed up Dem, The problam with the remap will be the population loss from the city of Chicago. The collar counties are seeing big gains while the city and cook co. will be net losers. The fight over the lost seat will be intense if the projections hold true.

  13. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 6:03 pm:

    Down here in McLean County I have not seen any ads for Kinzinger–got a couple of flyers from him. He probably thinks he has this part of the district sewed up since he grew up here.

    I have not seen that many yard signs for our favorite son, however. Kind of suprising with all the Brady signs out there.

    Like I said last week, it will be the rest of the district that will win or lose it for Debby Halvorson.

  14. - bored now - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 6:42 pm:

    halvorson’s campaign has a point. *if* foster is doing as well as his poll says, then the dccc may move the time reserved for him over to them. i wouldn’t be too confident at this point one way or another, *but* her campaign is finally locked and loaded (probably too late), and getting over their resistance to cooperate with others. we’ll see this weekend…

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