SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x2 *** Halvorson begs to differ

Tuesday, Oct 12, 2010

* The Hill’s poll last week had Republican Adam Kinzinger crushing freshman Congresscritter Debbie Halvorson 49-31. Democrats, however, said the poll looked weird because the universe had changed so drastically. President Obama, for instance, won the 11th District with 53 percent two years ago, but the universe in The Hill’s poll had just 41 percent of likely voters saying they voted for him, compared to John McCain’s 47.

So, the Halvorson campaign decided to release its own numbers. They say they’re behind, but only by four points

* Adam Kinzinger leads, but only by a small 45% to 41% margin. This is an extremely close race, and the momentum seems to be on Halvorson’s side after her strong early buy on Chicago broadcast television.

* Halvorson is getting movement with key subgroups. She leads with women and she leads with union households in one of the heaviest union districts in the country. Even though independents are breaking against Democrats in many districts, Halvorson and Kinzinger are in a virtual dead heat among them (40% Kinzinger / 37% Halvorson).

Anzalone Liszt claims that Kinzinger’s lead has been halved since August, and that her 2000 ratings points on the teevee has helped make this thing close. Methodology…

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 general election voters in IL CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 5-7, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, and interviews were apportioned geographically based on expected voters turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for n=500 is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.

Keep in mind that this is a candidate poll, so take it for what it’s worth. However, a whole lotta Illinois Dems are relying on Anzalone Liszt this year. If they’re wrong, then there will be plenty of unpleasant surprises all around.

*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Kinzinger campaign…

Hey Rich:

FYI - Halvorson went dark last friday and has canceled all other time…while DCCC has canceled all but 400K for her for the final week (they previously had scheduled 1.4 mill …then were at 1.1 mill until this latest cancel).

Checking…

*** UPDATE 2 *** From the Halvorson campaign…

We’re still up on Chicago broadcast today (I confirmed that with our firm).

From what I know, the DCCC hasn’t allocated the funds for Chicago broadcast to any of the big three races at this point. I’ll certainly let you know when they do.

* Congressional roundup…

* Fueled by growing voter anger, Schilling trying to unseat Hare

* Hare defends efforts to attract jobs: “I’m not going to sit back and just watch and go, ‘Well, you know, I know they need the money and I know it would put people to work, but I just, I don’t want to be criticized for doing it,’” Hare said. “If I could get a plant located here in this community and I knew it would take federal money to do it, I will tell you, I’d go to work on it tomorrow morning.” Terry Schilling, son and campaign manager for the GOP candidate, responded that, “The only thing that Representative Hare has built is $5 trillion of debt for our children and grandchildren.”

* Schoenburg: Hare-Schilling back-and-forth intensifies: Six months ago, a self-described “tea party blogger” from suburban St. Louis said “Jackpot” when U.S. Rep. PHIL HARE, D-Rock Island, gave the perfect sound bite for the YouTube age. As it turns out, TV stations might be the real jackpot winners. A conservative Iowa-based group says it is spending $500,000 to air an advertisement that includes the video of Hare’s comments.

* VIDEO: Phil Hare talks about why he’s running for office during an interview with The State Journal-Register editorial board.

* Congressional candidates talk Gulf oil spill

* The Race to Replace Mark Kirk

* Jesse Jackson Jr.’s GOP Opponent Gains Traction

* U.S. House race pits veteran against newcomer

* Manzullo overwhelming Gaulrapp in fundraising department

- Posted by Rich Miller        


14 Comments
  1. - Liandro - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:22 pm:

    It would make sense for far less of likely voters to have supported Obama–if, in fact, there is an enthusiasm gap. It would be exactly moderate/lean-left Obama voters that would be less likely to vote in such a scenario. Basically, Halvorson is saying that the political climate isn’t what…well, what the political climate is. She thinks she’s running in a world where Obama focused all his attention on the economy instead of health care, where unemployment dropped dramatically, and where voters aren’t mad at the party in power. Paint me skeptical.


  2. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:33 pm:

    Grasping at straws here?
    “We’re only losing by…”

    Incumbents are not supposed to depend on their own polls to show them losing instead of losing big.

    Tack on an additional GOP 4% to any poll during any midterm and run your campaign like that. Halvorson’s district only gave her 2 points down during a presidential year. That means she would be naturally down 6 points during any midterm. She needed to have been out of the gate or having a perpetual campaign for this district.Debbie blew it in a district drawn to not allow Democrats to assume reelections.

    “We are only losing by…”

    Madigan is campaigning. Any questions about what reality is suggesting out there?,

    What I have been seeing is campaign games being played by professional staffers trying to scrape a loss from their shoes. Blaming Halvorson. Her staff has been running amok since July when it seems they first got a whiff of the stench of inevitatable defeat.

    Hare is worse. His district is supposed to be safe, but he has been such a flop even his party is no longer supporting him..

    Two thing have to happen for an incumbent to lose. They have to screw up and they have to have a great opponent. Kinzinger and Schilling both turned out to be great campaigners and Halvorson and Hare have both screwed up.

    “They will only lose by…” - who gives a fig, other than the professionals behind these losers? They want to be paid and no one is sending their meal ticket incumbents any more money.

    So they do this stupid stunt.


  3. - jokat - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:43 pm:

    What I’d like to know (and we should in a few days) is how Halvorson intends to close the remaining gap which is likely wider than her poll states?

    She has been on broadcast TV for the last three or four weeks, so how much can she have left in the bank? If the DCCC doesn’t come in, I don’t see how she makes up any remaining ground because she can’t continue airing nearly as many points on broadcast.


  4. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:58 pm:

    ===If the DCCC doesn’t come in, I don’t see how she makes up any remaining ground because she can’t continue airing nearly as many points on broadcast. ===

    All good points.


  5. - Dozer - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:07 pm:

    ditto in the DCCC. they are up and running in Seals and Hare I believe. I think they saw the writing on the wall and shifted resources. If it was that close, they would be inthere banging away.

    their lack of participation is telling and if they don’t jump back in they’ve written it off.


  6. - fedup dem - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:23 pm:

    Should Halvorson lose (Heaven Forbid!), you will probably see the next Congressional remap take care of the lost House seat by bunching together Kinzinger and Aaron Schock into a single central Illinois district (considering that Kinzinger resides in the southern portion of the 11th, not that far from Schock’s Peoria base, this would not be a difficult task). This would insure that one of them would be ousted into the political wilderness in 2012.


  7. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:33 pm:

    Is Kinzinger on TV down south? I don’t think I’ve seen anything from him on Chicago stations, while Halvorson’s negative Social Security spot has been on constantly.


  8. - Matthew_Rocket_Boy - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:03 pm:

    I used to see a ton of Halvy adds and not I don’t see any. It does appear she isn’t on network anymore. I see a lot of Kinzinger’s stuff on cable. I would expect to see more though.
    As far as where Kinzinger lives . . . I think he moved to the North part of the District prior to the primary. It is either Manteno or Peotone. It could be a battle between Kinzinger and Jesse Jackson Jr in the next general.


  9. - OneMan - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:06 pm:

    Yes the redraw could be interesting to say the least. It would also be interesting to see how they redraw the 14th if Foster loses and if he wins if the make it more northerly.


  10. - Bubs - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:14 pm:

    Halvorson’s attack ads are very effective. TV time may be her only hope this late.


  11. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 3:32 pm:

    Looks like StateWideTom is running out of gas Now he is making his targets give money back
    Check McCarthy’s opponent
    Maybe it is for more groovy billboards.
    BTW word is the Newt Peoria caper headlined yesterday will be B.u.s.t.
    Whadda shame


  12. - fed up - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 5:27 pm:

    Dear fed up Dem, The problam with the remap will be the population loss from the city of Chicago. The collar counties are seeing big gains while the city and cook co. will be net losers. The fight over the lost seat will be intense if the projections hold true.


  13. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 6:03 pm:

    Down here in McLean County I have not seen any ads for Kinzinger–got a couple of flyers from him. He probably thinks he has this part of the district sewed up since he grew up here.

    I have not seen that many yard signs for our favorite son, however. Kind of suprising with all the Brady signs out there.

    Like I said last week, it will be the rest of the district that will win or lose it for Debby Halvorson.


  14. - bored now - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 6:42 pm:

    halvorson’s campaign has a point. *if* foster is doing as well as his poll says, then the dccc may move the time reserved for him over to them. i wouldn’t be too confident at this point one way or another, *but* her campaign is finally locked and loaded (probably too late), and getting over their resistance to cooperate with others. we’ll see this weekend…


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Cable TV buys
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Rauner vetoes several social service bills
* Ok, that's enough
* I truly hate this US Senate race
* Rauner signs life insurance bill
* Question of the day
* State bond sale goes well, but still paid a higher price
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Picking on the little guys
* We've been a sorry state for a long time
* Munger and Mendoza face off in hostile debate
* I'm still befuddled by this move
* *** UPDATED x5 - Motion approved - Noven to withdraw - $421 million budget hit - One appointee appears to be ineligible - The plot thickens as three new board members appointed *** Controversy expected at TRS hearing today
* React to remap reform ruling
* Divided court kicks remap reform off ballot
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* The flagship is dead, long live the new flagship
* Lenovo Yoga Tab 3 Plus 10 expected at IFA 2016
* Eighth beta for Apple software out for devs, seventh iOS 10 beta for public
* China’s Galaxy Note 7, the same as everyone else’s — 4GB RAM, 64GB storage
* Google Wallet debuts automatic transfers so you can skip “cashing out”
* Android 7.0 factory images are live for most Nexus devices
* Sony Xperia X Compact and Xperia XR specs revealed

* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs
* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs
* Sox offense unloads as everyone chips in
* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs
* Rodon, Walker duel to wrap Sox homestand
* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs
* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Governor Bruce Rauner Stops at IL State Fairgro.....
* New Illinois law makes insurance companies find.....
* Bernard Schoenburg: Davis, GOP quick to attack .....
* Statehouse Insider: Do we hafta put all of that.....
* Will Rauner and Trump A) help B) hurt Illinois .....
* Rauner kicks off Governor's Ride at Du Quoin St.....


* EXCHANGE: Labrador ready to help victims of child abuse
* EXCHANGE: Presidential museum gets rare Lincoln biography
* Elections board appeals ruling on independent candidate
* Southern Illinois highway named for fallen Green Beret
* 2 dead, 1 hurt in Chicago house fire; arson suspected
* In wake of cousin's fatal shooting, Dwyane Wade speaks out
* Regulator: Dakota Access pipeline worker killed in accident
* Northwest Indiana seeking to lure Chicago commuters
* Appeals court grapples with unions, free speech, giant rats
* New corn disease found in Illinois field

* Despite budget warnings from Rauner, TRS board votes to lower investment estimates
* Progress on U.S. 67 sputters due to lack of funds
* New law makes insurance companies find, pay beneficiaries
* Decatur woman can petition to become nurse under new law
* Illinois redistricting referendum won't appear on ballot
* Comptroller hopefuls argue independence from Madigan, Rauner
* Springfield-area jobless rate remains lowest in Illinois
* Illinois 'Obamacare' health insurance rates up significantly
* Rauner's office warns teachers' pension change could be 'devastating'

* What do you get for $2,000 in rent?
* Cubs stars growing too big for Chicago market
* Warehouses are sexy all of a sudden. Here's why.
* How Macy's retreat is affecting this REIT's fortunes
* What's not to like about Obamacare? Plenty in Illinois


* 2 wounded in Woodlawn drive-by shooting
* Man shot, critically wounded on Near West Side
* Dear Abby: Does rude wedding guest deserve thank you note?
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Aug. 28, 2016
* MONDAY SKULS -School staffing doesn’t always match CPS enrollment
* Quintana gets 11th win, has solidified status among game’s best
* Man shot during West Garfield Park robbery
* Avila has a blast upon return from DL in Sox’ win
* Nobel laureate, U of C professor emeritus James Cronin dead at 84
* Teammates tout Heyward’s everyday impact despite slumping bat


* Pushing back retirement age to 70 would be harder on low-income workers
* 1 dead, 11 wounded in Chicago shootings
* Ohio prisoner jumps to his death after being sentenced to 13 years prison
* White Sox bats back Jose Quintana in 9-3 victory over Mariners
* Inside debate prep: Clinton's careful case vs. Trump's unpredictability
* 49ers QB Kaepernick refuses to stand for national anthem in protest
* What's up with Joe Maddon and Jason Hammel? Talk to the hand
* Eyebrow-raising moves early in 3-2 loss show Cubs pulling out all stops
* Dwyane Wade's cousin shot dead while pushing her baby in stroller on South Side
* Colombian peace deal could mark a rare victory for U.S. diplomacy


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Angie Muhs: The ups and downs of online comments
* Bernard Schoenburg: Davis, GOP quick to attack independent Gill
* Statehouse Insider: Do we hafta put all of that money into pensions?
* Their View: Fair maps shouldn't be victims of partisanship
* Raising awareness to end domestic violence
* Mom's legacy lives on through fund
* Despite budget warnings from Rauner, TRS board votes to lower investment estimates
* Progress on U.S. 67 sputters due to lack of funds
* New law makes insurance companies find, pay beneficiaries
* Charles Krauthammer: The bribery standard


* Log throwing, music and dancing all highlight this year's Erin Feis
* PBL football wins rivalry game with GCMS
* Saturday's highlights: Watseka football surprises B-H
* Poulter settling in to starter role
* Cubit: 'I want to work'
* Illinois football's 2016 two-deep
* Sunday Special: AP voters on Lovie Smith
* Tate: Good vibes start with 'D,' recruits
* Illini legends, lists and lore: Defensive debuts
* North Dakota State beats Charleston Southern 24-17 in OT


* Images: Bears struggle with Chiefs in preseason game
* Girls volleyball scoreboard: Saturday, Aug. 27 results
* College football Down Under attracts 61,000 fans at Sydney
* Friends, colleagues to remember slain Mississippi nuns
* Sanchez hits another home run, Yankees rout Orioles 13-5

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Des Plaines Gets $11.4 Million To Purchase......

* Says they're all orphans and widows becaus......

* Rauner Signs Sportsmen Bills Aimed at Conservation and Investing in Young Hunters
* John Oliver’s smack-down of charter schools.
* Keeping retirement weird. Learning theory and the ukulele.
* Back To School Picnic On Wednesday
* Even nonpartisan attempt at redistricting reform was partisan effort
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Person Shot At Wilson/Hazel Friday Evening (Updated 3x)
* Person Shot and Killed At Wilson/Hazel Friday Evening (Updated 4x)
* Person Shot At Wilson/Hazel Friday Evening
* Judge Orders Release Of Additional Clinton Emails


* Statement on Redistricting Referendum
* Rauner Administration Takes Action to Help Illinoisans Find Lost Life Insurance Money
* Illinois Residents Encouraged to Register for ‘The Great ShakeOut’ Earthquake Drill - 'Drop, Cover and Hold On’ Drill Set for October 20
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Seeking Flexibility to Improve Delivery of Behavioral Health Care




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller