[Bill Brady] said he’s considering running for re-election to the state Senate.
* The Question: Should Bill Brady run for governor a third time in 2014? Explain.
- Posted by Rich Miller
- Let's Be Realistic - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 4:39 am:
Please, God, no.
Brady will never win a statewide primary again.
His primary victory was a complete fluke. Had Dillard remembered that Illinois actually extends south of I-57 and bothered to campaign there, he would have defeated Brady in the primary. Dillard’s mistake is one that future primary candidates will be loathe to repeat.
Furthermore, this campaign confirmed in the public’s mind that Brady is as vacuous as Quinn. If he runs in 2014, he’ll be handily defeated by any substantive candidate with a half-way intelligent campaign strategy — which will certainly include support of abortion in instances of rape and incest.
- Let's Be Realistic - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 4:41 am:
Senator Brady is a strong voice for the conservative movement in Illinois - a movement
growing stronger in downstate Illinois with each
There will be considerable competition - Sen. Dillard, Treasurer Rutherford, DuPage COunty Board
Chairman Cronin and possible one of more downstate
R Congressmen. With the D’s controlling redistricting 1-3 of them will have problems in
Illinois is dark purple these days. I can’t see Brady doing better than he did in the General next time. Rutherford can expand our base, and knows how to campaign all over. He ran a class operation for a second-tier position and did very well. Finally, remember that Aaron Schock will someday return to run statewide in Illinois. He is one of the up-and-comers that most wings of the GOP appreciate. Don’t count him out for Governor this next cycle.
Yes, he should run again. He ran a decent race this time and came awfully close. What’s he got to lose at this point?
- CircularFiringSquad - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 9:19 am:
Hey sports fans….Brady is already running for governor. He thinks his “near miss” entitles him to run and for the GOP liberals to stand down….Should make it easy for PQ to win another term.
- Living in Oklahoma - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 9:23 am:
Sure, Bill should run again. However between now and 2014 he needs to change his position on guns, abortion, and gay rights. Set up a meeting with Dick Durbin and bring yourself in line with his views, then run as a republican. It worked for Mark Kirk, why can’t it work for Bill?
Brady should not run again. The Republican Party should make sure that a fiscally conservative Republican with moderate stands on social issues ends up as the candidate. If that had happened this year, there would be a Republican sworn in as governor in January.
Let’s see. he ran for the GOP nomination for Congress and lost. He ran for the GOP nomination for governor four years ago and lost in a weak field. He lost the governor’s race this year despite the easiest possible course that was set in front of him.
How many times do the people of Illinois have to tell him “no” before he gets the idea?
I doubt he could survive a contested primary for his state senate seat if Rep. Dan Brady ran against him.
I think the Republican party needs to get back to their core ideals, like smaller government, less taxes, spend taxpayers’ dollars wisely, etc. The one thing this past election cycle proved is that conservatives rule the Republican primary but moderates elect the governor in the General and never shall the twain meet.
It’s his money and time, so run for it if he thinks he has a chance. Based on all the reasons stated above his chance is pretty slim. He should concentrate on becoming a regular GA leader with a solid voice and good support. He has had plenty of time to learn how but doing that means some very real changes from his past behavior. Only he can decide if he wants it bad enough. Seems like a pretty big stretch to me.
Amazing reading the comments here today and comparing them to the comments in August (i.e. what a perfect campaign that he was running).
20/20 hindsight is wonderful.
In any case, four years from now is a definite no. He does need to get away for a while. Eight years? Maybe, if he can reinvent himself as a guy who understands budgets.
I may be in a minority, but social issues only mattered to me once I realized that Brady had no clue on economic and budget issues. I may have accepted his right wing social views if I thought he knew how to fix the budget, but he kept bumbling (aka “Quinning”) so much when talking about the budget that I concluded that it was a wash between the two. Next on the list was social issues, and that was an easy choice.
- St. Charles Guy - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 10:16 am:
It’s his time & money, so he can obviously do whatever he wants. But I think he knows that 2010 was his moon-shot. I also don’t think that Brady ran a particularly adept campaign–my perception is that he believed his own polls and eased off the gas pedal for the last 3-5 weeks. In 2014 Lisa Madigan will likely run as well. Not to mention potential primary bids from candidates others have already pointed out.
I would agree if the ONLY choices were two in a primary, a moderate and a conservative. However, when the field is open, it shows the conservatives stay loyal to their “guy” and the moderates are left to fend for the leftovers.
There are two sides to this. Brady is too conservative to pull the numbers that he needed with suburban women and in suburban Cook as a whole. If he runs again, I doubt the Personal Pac-type hits would be any less effective.
The other side: Who else do the Republicans have? They don’t exactly have a very deep bench.
If the GOP couldn’t take the mansion this year, it is hard to see them taking it anytime soon. If the goal is to build momentum, no, Brady shouldn’t run.
The stars aligned for him in the primary, with McKenna and Dillard splitting the city and suburb vote, but that’s not going to happen again. Downstate is important, but not as much as Brady banked on with an asanine strategy of apparently pretending Chicago didn’t exist.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 11:05 am:
A year ago, many Democrats were praying Brady would be the nominee, figuring he was the only chance Quinn had.
Four years from now, a downstate Conservative ideologue is still our best hope — whether its Brady or Rutherford doesn’t really matter.
If Madigan is the Democratic nominee, Aaron Schock is really the only Republican in the state with a chance of beating her. And despite all the GOP hopes of a statewide run from their Golden Messiah, I have serious doubts about Schock making a run. He’s settled into a very comfy life in D.C…remap him in with any of his colleagues, and he wins anyway…my bet is the Map Maker will build Schock a nice comfy ultra-Republican district.
Word pretty nuc summed it up for me as well. (but he skipped the obligatory storm reference) The State GOp and Bradyhad a perfect storm this year for the election. If he didnt win this year he wont be able too next time. Right now, Dillard is probably the GOP best chance of capturing the top job, but that assumes Lisa Madigan does not run. If LMad makes her run for Gov, the GOP should conserve their resrouces for the other races they might have a chance at.
Ill go further and predict a large dem sweep if LMad is the anchor.
Knome, I don’t think you’re getting it. If all of the moderates in the Republican primary garnered a total of, say, 65 percent. Then the conservatives only represent 35 percent of their own party.
The bitter truth is that not only was Brady not mainstream for Illinois (and he almost won the whole thing!), but he was viewed as outside of the mainstream within his own party back on primary day.
That is the only reason someone as seriously flawed as Pat Quinn was able to stumble across the finish line.
Oh, and a final note to Pat Quinn. Take a cue from Mark Kirk on the issue of “mandate.” Kirk humbly noted that he did not have one because he didn’t get a majority of the votes (even though he got a lot more votes thatn Quinn did). A bit of humility and a lot less hubris may serve the Governor well.
But no one is holding their breath on that to happen.
No, Sen. Brady shouldn’t run, statewide, in 2014,
since he would lose. Too many Illinois Republicans ran statewide, lost, and ran again, thinking that the first loss would help them win their second statewide race. However, those candidates almost always lose their second (and sometimes third) statewide race. This happended to Al Salvi, Jim Oberweis, Joe Birkett, Steve Rauschenberger, and Andy Martin. Judy Topinka and Dan Rutherford won, this year, although they lost, statewide, in 2006. Those victories were unusual. Therefore, Brady should have known that he would also lose, this year. I hope that, in 2012, Congressman Tim Johnson will retire and that Sen. Brady will run for Congress.
word, that was my point. TV alone does not a campaign make. Brady had zero ground game in the Chicago area, and foolishly believed piggy-backing on the gotv campaigns of other candidates, by essentially asking them to mention him too, would be enough. You’d think his horrible numbers in the primary in chicago wouldve made him double his efforts there, but his campaign was obviously clueless
- Joe from Joliet - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 11:36 am:
== DuPage Co Chair Cronin==
No, please NOOO!!!! Not another lame attempt by an egomaniac with no chance to win. We don’t need another Schrill who won’t drop out until his name is finally printed on all ballots.
No, Brady shouldn’t run, statewide, since he would lose again. I hope that, in 2012, Congressman Johnson will retire and that Brady will be elected to Congress.
The last nonincumbent who was elected governor (Blago) was a congressman, so Republicans should nominate a congressman from Cook Co., Bob Dold. If that happens, Dold will get a higher percentage, than Brady, in Cook Co. suburbs, and Dold will win.
I’ve been saying for 20 years that the conservative wing of the GOP(now Tea Party) is the best thing that ever happened to Democrats. Generally, sane, moderate Republicans can’t win in the primary, and suburban women who really determine elections(like me)won’t vote for the right wing nuts who are winning primaries these days. Brady is an excellent example of an accidental candidate who would have made a terrible governor.
Now, Kirk Dillard actually would have been a fine governor, in the Edgar tradition. I blame Jim Ryan for draining off 25,000 votes from Dillard. Much as I admire Ryan, he served as a spoiler and handed the primary to Brady.
I’m convinced that, had Dillard taken the primary, he would have won the general and we would have gotten a far better governor.
So, no, Brady should not run statewide.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 12:24 pm:
=== I’m convinced that, had Dillard taken the primary, he would have won the general and we would have gotten a far better governor. ===
Another deciding factor was Forrest Claypool’s candidacy.
Had the Chicago Tribune not gone to such extraordinary efforts to defeat Joe Berrios, I doubt the Cook County Democrats would have been out in such extreme full force.
- Okay Then/Will County Woman - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 12:34 pm:
Brady should not run for a statewide office ever again. He was not winning or appearing to win because people liked him or thought he would be the best governor ever, he was “winning” only because he was running against Pat Quinn.
Many people were willing to overlook and ignore Brady’s many serious flaws and less than ideal positions because they were so desperate to get Quinn out of an office because of his gross incompetencies and unpopularity.
Imagine if the dems had actually had someone running whom people liked, Brady would have been toast early-on, and yes, that dem would have had a mandate too!
Brady had no credible answer for anything, especially on the budget, which was arguably the most critical issue in the race.
In order for Brady to win a (major) state-wide race in 2014 he would have to soften some of his positions, so as to become more likeable, and aggressively swing to the middle, and he would have to seriously court black voters. Can’t see him doing anything this (despite all of this being crystal clear for him and his campaign this year). His failure to swing to the middle, court black votes, and compromise on some of his ultra conservative stances is why he lost the guv’s race.
If the IL GOP was smart, it would start grooming serious and strong contenders for 2014 NOW! But, it’s the IL GOP, so it won’t. It will have too many candidates in the primary (most of whom will be weak) and no overall strategy for winning. Oh well, business as usual, I guess. :)
Anon Dupage, your logic really doesn’t follow. Over the last 20 years, moderates, or perceived moderates have won the primary in just about every election except this time with Brady. If it were that simple, Topinka wouldve done a lot better than she did in 2006.
As Skeeter said, let’s look back to August and all of the comments here about Brady running away with this thing. And now we’re trying to guess what might happen in four years?
Consider how different Illinois will be in 2014. A higher income tax will upset voters, but getting a mountain of overdue bills paid will make them happier. The economy will be much closer to recovery (please God), meaning with the higher income tax rate and more taxpayers, Illinois’ fiscal condition should be greatly improved.
Brady would then need an entirely new message than he used in this race. If you think you know what that message might be, then you’re closer to being able to answer the question. So for me, if our fiscal house is back in order, all Brady has left is his social issue message, and therefore the answer is, NO. Brady will not run, nor should he run for Governor in 2014. He’s got nothing to offer Illinois voters except cutting the budget, which won’t need to be cut in 2014 anymore than it needed to be cut in 2010.
Of course Quinn can still mismanage a fiscally healthy state, so somebody will have a lot of support to take out the incumbent. My guess is that will happen in a primary (assuming Quinn wants to run again).
Sure. Bill Brady should run for state senator. Why shouldn’t he run? He wasn’t as universally beloved by the state’s voters as he was by the voters down near Bloomington but that is okay. Maybe Bill was just meant to be a state senator? Nothing wrong with that. His own district’s voters seem to feel that he does a good job as their state senator or else he wouldn’t keep getting re-elected by them.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dan Rutherford be the guy who leads the GOP ticket in 2014 for Governor of Illinois. Rutherford has shown that he is popular. He has been around and knows how the game is played. He has established a strong GOP following over the years. He would seem to be a natural for the Illinois Republican Party to have run on the GOP ticket for governor in 2014.
I would suggest that he has had his chance. He lost DuPage County by enough to have won. We worked as hard for him as Mark Kirk and the other elected Republicans in the state with a chance of winning. He lost by 20,000 among Republican voters. I don’t know why yet, but there has to be something we overlooked in his getting such a smaller portion of the DuPage vote.
- Holdingontomywallet - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 5:09 pm:
Sure, by then Illinois should be $20-25 billion in debt. $20 billion should get the voters looking at another party…
- Ain't No Justice - Monday, Nov 29, 10 @ 5:37 pm:
No he shouldn’t. I think Judy ought to give it another shot.
Four years is a long way away especially as far as news cycles go. Anything can happen between now and then.
If he wants to run again, the question is will he learn from this race. There may have been things he could have done better and that given four years he can change either about himself or in the perception of him. Some people believe he is extreme on social issues and he needs to decide for himself if his stances on gay rights, puppies, and abortion are correctly portrayed and how can he change the perception if it is wrong.
Then he will will need to decide for himself whether the things he has no control over are things he can overcome to win the race. He will lose Cook County again- that is beyond his control.
One thing anyone who seriously wants to be a chief executive must answer has to to with their vision. Ronald Reagan, and President Obama both conveyed a vision that resonated on the campaign trail. Governor of Illinois is an office that would do well to have someone with vision. I saw glimpses of that from Brady last time out. He may have what it takes four years from now. He may not.
If he works hard at getting voters registered in the south, central and western portions of the state, he may be able to succeed next time with the same electoral strategy he employed this time. His trick will be to get turnout up where his support is without doing anything to alarm folks in his opponent’s support base such that they stampede out to vote against him. If personal pac can have a targetted campaign, why can’t birthright or whatever other anti abortion groups there are?