* Lynn Sweet reports on a very early poll in the 8th Congressional District Democratic primary race. It’s probably no surprise that Tammy Duckworth has a big early lead over Raja Krishnamoorthi…
The poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the new 8th district–anchored in the northwest suburbs–was conducted July 10-12, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
Duckworth–whose has had a fairly high profile since her 2006 run for Congress from the current 6th district–she lost to Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.)– starts the contest with a big lead over Krishnamoorthi, 69 percent to 8 percent.
Krishnamoorthi–who lost a Democratic primary bid for comptroller last year– lags far behind in name identification over Duckworth, 76 percent to 15 percent.
Duckworth also starts the primary with higher favorables, 61 percent to 5 percent.
* From Duckworth’s pollster…
She holds seven or eight-to-one leads in every region of the district. Duckworth is strongest with key primary constituencies including frequent primary voters, women, older voters and liberals.
There is no indication that Duckworth’s lead can be overcome with positive messages.
• Among the small number of voters who know both candidates, Duckworth still leads 54% to 32% indicating that even when he is well-known, Krishnamoorthi falls well short.
• Voters were also given detailed descriptions of the candidates comparing Krishnamoorthi’s ties to President Obama, previous run for State Comptroller, strong record on job creation and raising his family in the district to Duckworth’s personal story, record on veterans’ issues and commitment to job creation. After this simulation of millions of dollars worth of communication in the expensive Chicago market, Duckworth still leads 60% to 21%.
It seems likely that the only way Krishnamoorthi could narrow the race would be to launch a series of negative attacks against Duckworth. Not only would these be unlikely to succeed given the high esteem in which voters hold Duckworth, but these attacks would damage Democrats’ chance to pick up this lean Democratic seat. Any path back to the majority in the House, goes through Illinois-08.
It looks to me like they’re already trying to elbow Krishnamoorthi out of the race. I doubt that’ll happen any time soon.
* The Krishnamoorthi campaign’s response…
We are not surprised that a poll released by the Duckworth campaign shows a favorable position for Tammy, but the reality is that any poll conducted 8 months before an election is based solely upon name recognition. In the State Comptroller race, Raja started with just 6% support and came within an eyelash of winning the Democratic statewide primary against a party-backed, well-funded state legislator with a great ballot name. Today, even with modest name recognition, Raja has quickly raised over $400,000 in 5 and a half weeks, and he has assembled a formidable base of political and grassroots support. The fundamental issue in this election is who has the private sector experience and ideas to help revive the economy and protect the middle class. On that issue, Raja will fare very well.
*** UPDATE *** This is the super-positive statement used in the poll about Raja Krishnamoorthi. It barely moved the needle…
Raja Krishnamoorthi, age 37, is the President of Sivananthan Laboratories, a high tech company specializing in national security and renewable energy products. Before that, he was the Deputy Treasurer for Illinois where he helped revamp the state’s unclaimed property system and ran the technology venture capital fund, which has helped create hundreds of good-paying jobs in Illinois. Last year he ran for State Comptroller. Raja served as issues director for Barack Obama’s U.S. Senate campaign in 2004 and as an advisor to his presidential campaign. He is raising his kids right here in the district. As the only candidate with private sector experience creating jobs, Raja will focus on economic growth and putting people back to work. He says that is the only way we can really put the government’s fiscal house in order and keep our commitments to educate our kids and take care of seniors. Raja wants to bring common sense and practical problem solving to Washington D.C. — not mindless, hyperpartisan politics based on rigid ideologies.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* Meanwhile, it looks like Springfield state Sen. Larry Bomke is going to retire…
State Sen. Larry Bomke, a member of the Illinois General Assembly since 1995, said Wednesday he’s unlikely to run again unless the courts overturn the new Senate district map enacted this year by state Democrats.
Freshman state Sen. Sam McCann, R-Carlinville, is expected to announce today that he will run for the Senate from the 50th District, Bomke’s new home district. The new 50th includes much of Springfield.
McCann said in a statement Wednesday he will announce his plans today, and a McCann supporter, Pike County GOP Chairman John Birch, said McCann will run in the 50th.
Bomke, who had said earlier he was undecided about running again, reiterated his doubts that he could adequately serve constituents in the new 50th, because it covers so much territory. He said he also is busy with his insurance business, which recently became part of a firm with 20 locations across the state.
“If the map stays the same way, I probably would not run,” Bomke said.
I’ll have more on this for subscribers tomorrow.
* And Dorothy Brown may face a Democratic primary opponent…
A longtime alderman is weighing a Democratic primary challenge to Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown following her poor showing in a failed run for County Board president.
Ald. Ricardo Munoz, 22nd, told the Tribune he will decide whether to take on Brown within two weeks. He said her office has failed to fully enter the computer age and hinted at the scandals that surfaced in last year’s election.
“It needs to be automated,” Munoz said of Brown’s office. “It needs to be digitized. It needs to be cleaned up.”
Brown, who first ran without regular Democratic support in 2000, said she plans to run for re-election and is “very surprised” by Munoz’s interest in her job.
* Related…
* Bustos makes it official: She’ll seek 17th Congressional seat
* Democrat Gill announces candidacy in new 13th Congressional District
* Walsh tells Obama to “quit lying”
* ADDED: Hultgren calls for Congress to investigate Planned Parenthood
LIVE session coverage...
- Team America - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 11:34 am:
Gill is running for Congress for a fourth time??? Even Dan Seals knew when to give it up after three tries and get a cushy state job.
- Shore - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 11:38 am:
Jay Footlik said the same thing raja did about a seals poll in 2007 that showed a similar beating in the offing $600k later, footlik was blown out by a similar number. Will be interesting to see how he goes negative on her.
- CircularfiringSquad - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 11:41 am:
oes Duckworth have a plan to explain all the push she got from Blagoof in 2008? Seem to recall him spending a lot of energy in Denver pushing her.
If she can shed the shackle she could be a good candidate.
- anon - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 11:48 am:
Good to hear the Krishnamoorthi campaign has such high goals. I’m sure they’ll “fare very well,” if their goal is to come within an eyelash of winning.
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 12:10 pm:
Good to hear Dorothy “Excuses for Jeans Day” Brown may face a primary challenge. I hope Cook County State’s Attorney Anita Alvarez also gets a challenge.
- Levois - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 12:13 pm:
I wonder why we have to vote for a circuit court clerk anyway. It seems like a useless office. Did I really just say that? :o
- Son of a Centrist - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 1:06 pm:
Rich, didn’t you previously post that Duckworth would have a hard time against Raja? If not, I apologize– must have been someone else. If it was you, I have to tell you I thought you were off base there. Disabled female war hero with tons of name ID against the middle-eastern guy with a funny name who ran an uninspired state-wide campaign…looks like an easy equation to me. Admittedly, this may be a small over-simplification, but not by much IMHO.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 1:10 pm:
===Rich, didn’t you previously post that Duckworth would have a hard time against Raja? ===
No. I said she is a good candidate and has her work cut out for her because he’s a perpetual motion machine.
Also, your characterization of his statewide campaign is way off. He did pretty well for a first-timer.
- Son of a Centrist - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 1:14 pm:
I was surprised by a few things he did (and did not do) and I would share them with you privately but not here.
Working hard is not enough; you have to work smart. I think she will beat him by a country mile.
- Democratic voter - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 1:16 pm:
Son of a Centrist, Krishnamoorthi is an Indian name not Middle Eastern.
- crazy - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 1:19 pm:
Raja is not Middle Eastern but this is an example of standard stereotypes that will hurt his candidacy but he will be able to mobilize whatever- South Asian and even Middle Eastern population in the district who may not typically vote in primaries so would not be considered “Democrats” or those who have never voted in a primaries since culturally speaking South Asians do not typically pull ballots despite it being a Presidential year.
It is way too soon to count him out as a serious contender but I do agree with Rich, Tammy will be a serious candidate.
- Observer of the State - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 1:25 pm:
Duckworth will be a serious contender but her support for raising the Social Security Retirement Age in the last election cost the seat. As some one also pointed out she was quite cozy with Rod during his time in office. She was often on PBS defending his policies. If Raja does not go negative her Republican opponent most certainly will have the opportunity.
- Not a Newcomer - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 1:29 pm:
Bomke always seemed to me like a guy interested in public service for the right reasons, a rare quality at the State House. I didn’t work with him very much, and didn’t always agree with his line of reasonings, but I always sorta liked his attitude towards his job. I hope he finds a fun next challenge.
- OneMan - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 1:55 pm:
crazy, not sure how much parts of that community will mobilize after the blowback concerning Rod and JJJ and the South Asian community.
Remember Kathuria? I would be less worried about activating communities and just getting voters to vote for you.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 1:59 pm:
@Observer -
You can’t equate negative attacks during the primary and the general.
It is much harder to slough off attacks from members of your own party.
Rod-by-Association attacks haven’t worked to well in the past. If that’s the best the GOP can come up with, they are in trouble.
As for Social Security, public attitudes have shifted since Duckworth ran five years ago.
My guess is there is a tipping point where strong majorities of people accept changes to benefits in social security…most certainly if the changes apply only to those under 35.
- Robert - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 2:07 pm:
==It seems likely that the only way Krishnamoorthi could narrow the race would be to launch a series of negative attacks against Duckworth.==
strange that they put this out front - I wonder what Duckworth’s people are worried about in terms of an attack? I’d guess instead that Raja will simply outwork her.
- MikeP - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 2:25 pm:
I know it is a Dem-leaning district, but has anyone heard of a Republican running for the 8th Cong. seat?
- D.P. Gumby - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 3:21 pm:
Who knew that Sen. Bumpkis would suddenly look so appealing!!
- Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 3:28 pm:
I’m curious how Raja and Duckworth contrast on the issues.
When I heard Raja speak at the Northside DFA presentation he more or less said that he was willing to set aside his principles on economic policy for the sake of doing something even though he hadn’t decided what his principles were on economic policy.
Of course, there’s little in Duckworth’s past to suggest that she’s an economic populist either.
- Skeeter - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 4:17 pm:
I’m thrilled to see anybody take on Dorothy Brown. She simply runs a terrrible office. It often takes weeks for pleadings to get to file. On-line court dockets are a joke. Finding court files at times is next to impossible.
When you go to the office, you see why: a lot of people milling around aimlessly.
In contrast, in Federal Court, pleadings get filed electronically. Things get done quickly and efficiently. Orders are e-mailed to counsel the day they are entered. I’ve never seen an error in an on-line docket.
Of course, the bio section of D. Brown on the Clerk’s website is highly detailed. If your goal is to find out info on her, as opposed to about a case pending, then you’ve come to the right place.
- Allen Skillicorn - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 5:02 pm:
Joe Walsh’s twitter hash tags still have #IL08 on them. Since his home address has been redistricted with another incumbent, I wonder if he’d be willing to take one for the team and run against Duckworth??? Probably not, but that’s how rumors start…
- wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 7:09 pm:
–My guess is there is a tipping point where strong majorities of people accept changes to benefits in social security…most certainly if the changes apply only to those under 35.–
Based on the reaction to the national reaction to the House GOP Medicare proposal, my guess would be that “tipping point” is candidates falling off the cliff.
Not that changes won’t be made in the future (Social Security is not nearly spiking as much as Medicare). I just doubt that you run on them in a Dem primary.
- Team Sleep - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 11:16 pm:
YDD - considering how much the Dems hit the GOP over the head with George Ryan attacks in 2006, I fail to see how using a newly-convicted felon of a governor against the Dems is a bad idea.
Allen - nearly all of the GOP Congresspersons from Illinois are not doing anything “official” until the lawsuit is over. So if Walsh does something prematurely, he’ll draw the wrath of the NRCC.
- Retired Non-Union Guy - Thursday, Jul 14, 11 @ 11:48 pm:
Larry will be missed. He was always willing to listen. And he didn’t necessarily toe the party line; he actually thought for himself. And, in my opinion, most of the time he got it right in representing his constituency. The state could do a lot worse than to have Larry for higher office, including Governor … although I know he has his plate full with an expanded insurance business.
Disclosure: Larry was (and still is) my insurance agent before he became Senator and Sally Jo taught my son in school so they are as much friends as anything else.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jul 15, 11 @ 7:26 am:
===I fail to see how using===
Because it doesn’t work. You can try, but it hasn’t worked.