SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: Kinzinger vs. Manzullo race now “too close to call”

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012

* We Ask America has a poll out that shows barely a difference in the 16th Congressional District Republican Primary race. The survey, taken March 11-12 has Congressman Don Manzullo at 42.64 percent and Congressman Kinzinger at 42.25 percent. From the pollster

Early on in the campaign, Kinzinger had all the momentum. At one point not too long ago, we polled Kinzinger up by as much as 13 percent. That support, as the old expression says, may have been “a mile wide and an inch deep.” Manzullo and his campaign team have ferociously fought back to the point that the race is a dead heat. […]

Logic dictates that Manzullo has the momentum leading into Illinois’ March 20 Primary, but Kinzinger continues to surprise and impress many with his abilities, and may have a better GOTV effort overall. As in any race, estimates concerning turnout vary greatly depending on who’s handicapping the contest.

At any rate, it may be a very late night for the folks in Illinois 16.

The polling firm’s last poll had Kinzinger up 47-34, so this is not good news for the Kinzinger camp.

* Meanwhile, Slate’s David Weigel looks at one of the ads Manzullo is running which claim Kinzinger isn’t conservative enough

The attack that leaps out at you: Kinzinger was “one of seven Republicans who voted to PAY FOR OBAMA’S APPOINTMENTS!” What does that mean? Just that Kinzinger opposed a summer 2011 amendment that would have denied a salary to anyone recess-appointed by Barack Obama. Really. That’s it. That’s the proof that he’s not conservative enough to represent a mostly-Republican district. It’ll be fascinating to see if this works.

* But a new political action committee that I’ve been telling subscribers about for a while now has jumped into this race on Kinzinger’s side. The Illinois Lunch Pail Republicans, created to back union-friendly Republicans, is reportedly doing a $100,000 independent expenditure on behalf of Kinzinger. Here’s the TV ad

Support by that group could become an issue.

* Related…

* ‘The one that made my wife weep’: The two Illinois GOP incumbents heading for a showdown Tuesday traded barbs in a contentious primary debate Tuesday night, where Don Manzullo accused Adam Kinzinger of producing a mail piece “that made my wife weep.”

* Manzullo, Kinzinger get testy over ads and conservative ratings, disagree on Afghanistan

* Congressmen clash over conservative title

* Illinois primary pits leaders vs. Tea Party

* Kinzinger ‘concerned’ but members think he’ll win: The belief on the Hill among Republican staffers and members tracking the 16th District contest is that while Manzullo has mounted a surprisingly sharp advertising blitz, Kinzinger’s response has been flat. Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s endorsement of Kinzinger Thursday was partly reflective of that sentiment.

* Press Release: Gun Owners of America Endorses Rep. Manzullo Over Rep. Kinzinger

* American Conservative Union backs Manzullo over Kinzinger

* Bill Brady endorses Manzullo

- Posted by Rich Miller        


16 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 10:21 am:

    The Hill story is very interesting. GOP House leadership has gotten involved in a number of primary races. You better win those when you’re the boss.


  2. - ZC - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 10:59 am:

    I’m chiefly curious about who the 16th primary voters are supporting for Prez. How did Dillard and Brady do in the newly reconstituted 16th? That’s probably the best tell. I expect low turnout on the 20th so anywhere there’s a competitive primary is likely to see a relative bump in participation.


  3. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:03 am:

    The ILPR brings up some interesting questions. Operators 150 wants to support Kinzinger, but they do not want to do it directly? They organized in late Feb with $50k from the Operators, who will put in the other $50k? Also, the ILPR is a state PAC, how much spending on federal races would make them a federal PAC? And, does the NRA like Adam as well?


  4. - OneMan - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:04 am:

    Have to say out near Sheradin and Mendota (on my way to curling) I see a lot more Manzullo signs on 52 than I do Kinzinger


  5. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:07 am:

    ===Also, the ILPR is a state PAC===

    They have a federal PAC too.


  6. - Marcus Agrippa - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:29 am:

    I wish Manzullo could play up the fact that the nasty mailers are coming from a bunch of rich Texans and that Eric Cantor has stuck his nose in it to boost his shot at Speaker. We’ve got enough problems without a bunch of outsiders telling us what to do.


  7. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:53 am:

    ==They have a federal PAC too.==

    Thanks. I wondered about that. I went to the FEC page, but couldn’t find the PAC.


  8. - Beef_Eater - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 1:13 pm:

    Kinzinger better ramp up here in a bit. He is probably leading with early voting as his organization has really been on top of this while Manzullo’s . . . not so much.


  9. - chad - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 2:26 pm:

    If the tea partiers come out strongly for Santorum/Newt — and there are many in this new district — Manzullo will be the beneficiary. Don is always popular with these folks.


  10. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 3:03 pm:

    ZC, here’s a link to the 2010 primary map by county.

    http://geognerd.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/repgov_ramp.jpg

    The only county that supported Dillard in IL-16 was Boone County. Brady won the band of the district furthest from Chicago while McKenna won the band of the district closest to Chicago.


  11. - Rail Rider - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 4:53 pm:

    The big mo is definitely with Don.

    Adam’s inexperience is hurting him. On the WTTW debate Adam said that if he lost he’d leave the country, underscoring his lack of connection or roots in the 16th, or even his current 11th district.


  12. - RonThelurker - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 5:19 pm:

    Really? Adam said hed deploy to afghanistan. If thats leaving the country, and If thats your hit, wow.


  13. - Citizen Soldier - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 9:28 pm:

    Doesn’t Adam have a civilian employer to go back to? Every guardsman and reservist I know has one.

    It’s not my hit, but it does make you wonder what his community connection is, especially with us pulling out of Afghanistan next year.


  14. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:34 pm:

    Interesting note about the Operating Engineers, Rich.

    I noticed the NRA did not endorse in the race, but gave both candidates A’s.


  15. - Rail Rider - Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 6:37 am:

    Heard this morning that Cantor is doubling down and dropping $50K on Kinzinger on the eve of the primary. Evidence that at this late date they must think Kinzinger is losing.

    I spent some time in the guard myself. I wonder why Kinzinger constantly volunteers to leave his unit, the people he trains with, and do these short tours. Doesn’t this leave his unit in a lurch when the unit gets called up? The whole point of the national guard and reserve is that people know each other and have trained together for years. How many of these short tours has he done? Are his fellow unit members that glad to see him go?


  16. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 7:18 am:

    The recess appointments kinzinger voted to fund were actually not recess appointments they were illegal appointments made to the NLRB when Obama claimed congress was he recess. He was one of a small number of Republicans that voted to fund them. All his conservative colleagues voted against such funding.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Mautino misses deadline
* Emanuel accepts Rauner's apology, but with a catch
* Trade secrets or hiding payrollers?
* *** UPDATED x1 - 34 Latin Kings charged *** US Attorney to announce "significant new indictments against numerous alleged gang members"
* Question of the day
* Caption contest!
* Rauner is gearing up
* Convention delegates are "not normal" party members
* I'll believe it when I see it, Lisa
* SIU's two crucial mistakes
* Sandack says no "compromising information" was accessed
* *** UPDATED x3 - VIDEO: Kennedy looked horrible *** Chris Kennedy speaks to Dems, flees without talking to reporters
* G: Blagojevich doesn't deserve leniency
* *** LIVE COVERAGE *** Democratic National Convention
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Smartphone shipments return to growth after early 2016 decline, says Canalys
* Newegg discount and coupon code brings Huawei Watch price down to $200
* Xiaomi Announces 'Redmi Pro' Smartphone With 5.5-Inch OLED Display and Dual-Lens Camera
* Samsung Galaxy S8 4K Project Dream, BlackBerry DTEK50 & more – Pocketnow Daily
* [TA Deals] Get everything you need to learn Excel for $39
* Apple Pay has ‘tens of millions’ of users worldwide, up 450 percent year-on-year
* Redesigned Firefox for iOS Claims Faster Load Times, Less Battery Drain

* White Sox 50-50, as is their trade deadline approach
* Adolfo among top prospect performers Tuesday
* White Sox likely to place Lawrie on disabled list
* Shields providing Sox with quality assurance
* Shields shapes White Sox shutout of Cubs
* Ranaudo to make Sox debut as scene shifts to Wrigley
* White Sox 3, Cubs 0: Crosstown Cup stays on the South Side

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Morning Spin: Illinois Republicans move to get .....
* Mindy Swank: SB 1564 is reasonable compromise b.....
* Rauner renews term limits call – Herald & Review..
* Each Illinois legislator costs us an average of.....
* Illinois Democrats look for candidate to run ag.....
* Illinois Governor pushes need for term limits a.....
* Rauner renews term limits call - Herald & Review..


* Illinois corn, soybean crops in good condition despite heat
* EXCHANGE: Pearl City resident enjoys raising bison
* New cases of Legionnaires' disease found at veterans home
* Teen charged in drug overdose case enters guilty plea
* Oprah's old Chicago offices being cleared for McDonald's
* Springfield officials sign deal to boost workforce diversity
* Dennis Hastert's prison release date pushed back
* Dennis Hastert's prison release date pushed back
* Driver in fiery Chicago highway crash cited by state police
* New I-74 bridge requires moving many mussels

* Auditor General Mautino misses deadline to file amended reports
* Prosecutors: Rod Blagojevich isn't 'deserving of leniency'
* High-profile Republican state lawmaker abruptly resigns
* High-profile GOP Illinois lawmaker Sandack suddenly resigns
* 2 efforts in Illinois attempt to change sex offender laws
* Rauner renews call for term limits
* Rauner-created business development group gets new name
* State costs for amendment notices likely to top $2 million
* Rauner OKs regulating police use of cell-site simulators
* Illinois Supreme Court to consider remap ballot measure

* Travelin' McCourys, American art, Newberry Book Fair
* Clinton wins historic nomination, says glass ceiling cracked
* Moody's official: Chicago's still got time to fix pension problem
* Nearly 3 dozen gang members indicted in Chicago area
* Is this the end for health care mega-deals?


* Beyoncé garners 11 MTV Video Award noms; Taylor Swift shut-out
* Woman wounded in Roseland shooting
* Police warn of business burglaries in Dunning
* 1 dead, 8 wounded in shootings Tuesday on South, West sides
* Police: Woman shot to death in South Chicago
* Person shot in Englewood
* Woman, 20, shot in West Pullman
* Dear Abby: Single mom misses her aunts, uncles
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for July 27, 2016
* ‘What does it take to be the 1st female anything’: Streep on Hill


* Simon Cowell says 'America's Got Talent' was made for Northbrook teen
* Woman and teen killed, 9 other people wounded in Chicago shootings
* Moody Tongue to open tasting room with beer, cake and oysters
* Heavily redacted police report offers few details on lawmaker's resignation
* Oversight agency wants 3 Chicago cops fired for 'unjustified' shootings
* Chicago mothers who lost children ask DNC for police reform, gun control
* President Obama to hail Hillary Clinton at DNC tonight
* How do you like those Apples? Waning wow factor for iPhone a drag for Cook
* Lombard woman charged with running down boyfriend with car
* Morning Spin: Illinois Republicans move to get two Kirk opponents knocked off ballot


* Mindy Swank: SB 1564 is reasonable compromise between patients' rights, providers' faith
* Catherine Rampell: The Trump Doctrine of unpredictability
* Michael Gerson: Republicans have ceded the ground on faith
* E.J. Dionne: Clinton's Philadelphia vs. Trump's Cleveland
* Auditor General Mautino misses deadline to file amended reports
* Prosecutors: Rod Blagojevich isn't 'deserving of leniency'
* Kathleen Parker: The fury of Herr Trumpf
* High-profile Republican state lawmaker abruptly resigns
* High-profile GOP Illinois lawmaker Sandack suddenly resigns
* 2 efforts in Illinois attempt to change sex offender laws


* St. Mary's to make asbestos decision this week
* Tom Kacich: Most Senate donors from outside Illinois
* Area Calendar 7/27/16
* Allerton Barn fest returns
* Lawyers seeking more plaintiffs in suit against Syngenta
* Unlimited appeal
* Church-based homeless center making progress
* 'Comrades' not good term to use
* Bloomington friend "beyond emotional" after Clinton nomination
* Leonard Pitts Jr.: Words of oppression, from the 'oppressed'


* Each Illinois legislator costs us an average of $100,000 a year
* Q&A: Sean Stegall on what it was like as Elgin's city manager
* Rolling Meadows senior housing plan stays alive
* Dawn Patrol: Bland's mother speaks at DNC; Sox beat Cubs
* Olympics present problem in US qualifying for Ryder Cup

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Kirk, Durbin and IHDA Announce Re-Opening ......
* Sen. Durbin, Mayor Emanuel, Members of Ill......

* Morning Spin: Illinois Republicans move to......
* Kirk Applauds US Attorney Fardon Arrest Of......
* Kirk, Durbin and IHDA Announce Re-Opening ......

* Zoning Board of Appeals Meeting Agenda, Friday, November 16, 2007
* October 2007
* Map of Special Service Areas
* Finance Committee Meeting Agenda, Monday, November 5, 2007
* Housing and Real Estate Committee Meeting Agenda, October 11, 2007
* December 2007 - Agenda Items
* Committee on Historical Landmark Preservation Agenda, December 3, 2007
* November 2007
* Community Development Commission Meeting Agenda, Tuesday, November 13, 2007
* Housing and Real Estate Committee Meeting Agenda, Friday, November 9, 2007


* Zika Virus And The 2016 Summer Olympics - Travel guidance for those heading to Brazil for the Olympics
* Two Cases of Legionnaires’ Disease Identified in Adams County - New admissions to Quincy Veterans' Home halted
* Serve Illinois Commission Announces $15.6 Million for AmeriCorps Programs - 32 grantees will place almost 1,600 AmeriCorps volunteers in communities
* Rauner Calls on General Assembly to Vote on Constitutional Amendment for Term Limits in Fall Veto Session
* IDNR Announces 2016–17 Waterfowl Season Dates




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller