SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: Kinzinger vs. Manzullo race now “too close to call”

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012

* We Ask America has a poll out that shows barely a difference in the 16th Congressional District Republican Primary race. The survey, taken March 11-12 has Congressman Don Manzullo at 42.64 percent and Congressman Kinzinger at 42.25 percent. From the pollster

Early on in the campaign, Kinzinger had all the momentum. At one point not too long ago, we polled Kinzinger up by as much as 13 percent. That support, as the old expression says, may have been “a mile wide and an inch deep.” Manzullo and his campaign team have ferociously fought back to the point that the race is a dead heat. […]

Logic dictates that Manzullo has the momentum leading into Illinois’ March 20 Primary, but Kinzinger continues to surprise and impress many with his abilities, and may have a better GOTV effort overall. As in any race, estimates concerning turnout vary greatly depending on who’s handicapping the contest.

At any rate, it may be a very late night for the folks in Illinois 16.

The polling firm’s last poll had Kinzinger up 47-34, so this is not good news for the Kinzinger camp.

* Meanwhile, Slate’s David Weigel looks at one of the ads Manzullo is running which claim Kinzinger isn’t conservative enough

The attack that leaps out at you: Kinzinger was “one of seven Republicans who voted to PAY FOR OBAMA’S APPOINTMENTS!” What does that mean? Just that Kinzinger opposed a summer 2011 amendment that would have denied a salary to anyone recess-appointed by Barack Obama. Really. That’s it. That’s the proof that he’s not conservative enough to represent a mostly-Republican district. It’ll be fascinating to see if this works.

* But a new political action committee that I’ve been telling subscribers about for a while now has jumped into this race on Kinzinger’s side. The Illinois Lunch Pail Republicans, created to back union-friendly Republicans, is reportedly doing a $100,000 independent expenditure on behalf of Kinzinger. Here’s the TV ad

Support by that group could become an issue.

* Related…

* ‘The one that made my wife weep’: The two Illinois GOP incumbents heading for a showdown Tuesday traded barbs in a contentious primary debate Tuesday night, where Don Manzullo accused Adam Kinzinger of producing a mail piece “that made my wife weep.”

* Manzullo, Kinzinger get testy over ads and conservative ratings, disagree on Afghanistan

* Congressmen clash over conservative title

* Illinois primary pits leaders vs. Tea Party

* Kinzinger ‘concerned’ but members think he’ll win: The belief on the Hill among Republican staffers and members tracking the 16th District contest is that while Manzullo has mounted a surprisingly sharp advertising blitz, Kinzinger’s response has been flat. Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s endorsement of Kinzinger Thursday was partly reflective of that sentiment.

* Press Release: Gun Owners of America Endorses Rep. Manzullo Over Rep. Kinzinger

* American Conservative Union backs Manzullo over Kinzinger

* Bill Brady endorses Manzullo

- Posted by Rich Miller        


16 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 10:21 am:

    The Hill story is very interesting. GOP House leadership has gotten involved in a number of primary races. You better win those when you’re the boss.


  2. - ZC - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 10:59 am:

    I’m chiefly curious about who the 16th primary voters are supporting for Prez. How did Dillard and Brady do in the newly reconstituted 16th? That’s probably the best tell. I expect low turnout on the 20th so anywhere there’s a competitive primary is likely to see a relative bump in participation.


  3. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:03 am:

    The ILPR brings up some interesting questions. Operators 150 wants to support Kinzinger, but they do not want to do it directly? They organized in late Feb with $50k from the Operators, who will put in the other $50k? Also, the ILPR is a state PAC, how much spending on federal races would make them a federal PAC? And, does the NRA like Adam as well?


  4. - OneMan - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:04 am:

    Have to say out near Sheradin and Mendota (on my way to curling) I see a lot more Manzullo signs on 52 than I do Kinzinger


  5. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:07 am:

    ===Also, the ILPR is a state PAC===

    They have a federal PAC too.


  6. - Marcus Agrippa - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:29 am:

    I wish Manzullo could play up the fact that the nasty mailers are coming from a bunch of rich Texans and that Eric Cantor has stuck his nose in it to boost his shot at Speaker. We’ve got enough problems without a bunch of outsiders telling us what to do.


  7. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:53 am:

    ==They have a federal PAC too.==

    Thanks. I wondered about that. I went to the FEC page, but couldn’t find the PAC.


  8. - Beef_Eater - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 1:13 pm:

    Kinzinger better ramp up here in a bit. He is probably leading with early voting as his organization has really been on top of this while Manzullo’s . . . not so much.


  9. - chad - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 2:26 pm:

    If the tea partiers come out strongly for Santorum/Newt — and there are many in this new district — Manzullo will be the beneficiary. Don is always popular with these folks.


  10. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 3:03 pm:

    ZC, here’s a link to the 2010 primary map by county.

    http://geognerd.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/repgov_ramp.jpg

    The only county that supported Dillard in IL-16 was Boone County. Brady won the band of the district furthest from Chicago while McKenna won the band of the district closest to Chicago.


  11. - Rail Rider - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 4:53 pm:

    The big mo is definitely with Don.

    Adam’s inexperience is hurting him. On the WTTW debate Adam said that if he lost he’d leave the country, underscoring his lack of connection or roots in the 16th, or even his current 11th district.


  12. - RonThelurker - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 5:19 pm:

    Really? Adam said hed deploy to afghanistan. If thats leaving the country, and If thats your hit, wow.


  13. - Citizen Soldier - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 9:28 pm:

    Doesn’t Adam have a civilian employer to go back to? Every guardsman and reservist I know has one.

    It’s not my hit, but it does make you wonder what his community connection is, especially with us pulling out of Afghanistan next year.


  14. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:34 pm:

    Interesting note about the Operating Engineers, Rich.

    I noticed the NRA did not endorse in the race, but gave both candidates A’s.


  15. - Rail Rider - Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 6:37 am:

    Heard this morning that Cantor is doubling down and dropping $50K on Kinzinger on the eve of the primary. Evidence that at this late date they must think Kinzinger is losing.

    I spent some time in the guard myself. I wonder why Kinzinger constantly volunteers to leave his unit, the people he trains with, and do these short tours. Doesn’t this leave his unit in a lurch when the unit gets called up? The whole point of the national guard and reserve is that people know each other and have trained together for years. How many of these short tours has he done? Are his fellow unit members that glad to see him go?


  16. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 7:18 am:

    The recess appointments kinzinger voted to fund were actually not recess appointments they were illegal appointments made to the NLRB when Obama claimed congress was he recess. He was one of a small number of Republicans that voted to fund them. All his conservative colleagues voted against such funding.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* AFSCME: Rauner memo "riddled with misinformation"
* Question of the day
* Rauner vetoes no-strike bill
* Governor's office claims it's pledged no lockout, dropped pension demand
* Dusting off the playbook
* To fair or not to fair?
* *** UPDATED x1 *** This just in...
* Over-reading the tea leaves?
* Poor winners
* A very bad case of whiplash
* Motion, not movement
* Uh-oh
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * GoButler Takes Its Virtual Personal Assistant Out Of Beta, Raises $8M
        * Yahoo intros new Livetext Video Chat app
        * FreedomPop Raises $10M More, Inks Strategic Deal With New Investor, Asian Carrier Axiata
        * New CAT S40 rugged introduced, ready for rough and tough use
        * The OnePlus 2 gets the teardown treatment
        * Google’s Project Loon will provide Internet access for the whole of Sri Lanka
        * Angry Birds 2 launches for Android

        * Trade deadline activity picks up without the White Sox
        * Seven up: White Sox keep on rolling
        * Melky spearheads White Sox winning ways
        * Steverson pleased with offense's resurgence
        * White Sox 9, Red Sox 2: They're even scoring early for Jose Quintana
        * White Sox set sights on eight-game winning streak
        * Seven up: White Sox keep on rolling

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * 3 suspects held in south-central Nebraska credit union heist
        * GOP leaders rally around Kirk after fundraiser's criticism
        * US court says drug-sniffing dog fails the smell test
        * Prosecutors re-indict former North Chicago chief
        * Chicago man cleared after 17 years in prison shot dead
        * Kirk's public comments, gaffes raise questions
        * No bond for man charged in fatal shooting of Chicago boy, 7
        * Owner of closed Chicago hospital sentenced in bribery scheme
        * Rauner vetoes legislation to ban strikes, worker lockouts
        * Baby left in car for 2 hours in Joliet improves

        * Court ruling helps some child care providers amid ongoing state budget impasse
        * Rauner, AFSCME reach another contract extension; governor vetoes bill to prohibit strike, lockout
        * Court ruling helps some child care providers
        * Private employers now can give hiring preference to veterans after Rauner signs law
        * Private employers now can give hiring preference to veterans
        * Illinois House votes to reject pay raise; Senate vote expected next week
        * Statewide tourism numbers up, although most Springfield historic sites see decline in visitors
        * Rauner signs bill broadening eligibility for food stamps
        * Statewide tourism numbers up, although most Springfield historic sites seeing decline in visitors
        * Illinois House approves legislation to block lawmaker pay raise

        * The business of making tattoos go away
        * The behind-the-scenes companies hit byChicago's plastic bag ban
        * The behind-the-scenes companies hit by Chicago's plastic bag ban
        * Exelon sees little hope of saving Quad Cities nuke
        * GOP congressmen object to ozone rule; Ruemmler's new gig; Indiana raiders at Wrigley


          * Bronzeville standoff ends with gunfire exchanged, man injured
          * Officer injured after Northwest Side crash
          * 1 dead, 5 injured in shootings since Wednesday afternoon
          * Plane crashes at Milwaukee's Timmerman Airport; 2 dead
          * Despite gaffes, it's Kirk or bust for Republicans
          * Cops: Puppy stolen at knifepoint on CTA Orange Line
          * Chicago's top cop recommends officer be fired over 2011 shooting
          * Expert unable to explain why police cameras missed fatal cop shooting
          * Police say church bus lacked fed registration


          * Catherine Rampell: One job government does better
          * Tom Kiernan: Wind could power Illinois' economic future
          * George Will: With Iran deal, Obama makes bad history
          * Court ruling helps some child care providers amid ongoing state budget impasse
          * Rauner, AFSCME reach another contract extension; governor vetoes bill to prohibit strike, lockout
          * Private employers now can give hiring preference to veterans after Rauner signs law
          * Bill McGee: Massacres of black Americans nothing new
          * Ron Ellis: Advice for crafting Illinois' budget
          * Michael Gerson: Coronating a wounding queen?
          * Illinois House votes to reject pay raise; Senate vote expected next week


          * Top of the morning, July 30, 2015
          * CC Fair Motorcycle Races 2015
          * Loda rejects sharing police officer with Buckley
          * Westville plans street repairs
          * Fairbury woman injured in DUI-related crash on I-74
          * UI roundup: Hambly's squad receives AVCA honor
          * Victim's family: 'There's no way to act but cry'
          * Sports Talk 07-29-15
          * PODCAST: Melany Jackson, C-U at Home 07-29-15
          * UI's Nugent up for congressional honor


          * Dawn Patrol: Old COD board sought to rein in Breuder; Giordano's coming to Schaumburg?
          * 2 COD trustees say they can't get information needed to do job
          * Before putting him on leave, COD board sought to rein in Breuder
          * Galaxy S6 fails to reverse profit decline at Samsung
          * Environmentalists, unions protest Pacific trade pact in Maui

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Durbin targets for-profit colleges that ex......

          * GOP leaders rally around Kirk after fundra......

          * Group Plans Red Light Camera Protest Thursday At Daley Plaza
          * The Beachwood Radio Hour #63A: We Are Living In The Golden Age Of Rock 'N' Roll
          * Exclusive: Trump Puts Lion Killer On VP Short List
          * “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
          * What will ’16 election cycle turn into for GOP efforts to alter Illinois?
          * New Residential Development Proposed For West Belle Plaine
          * Lowell's Last Call On Friday
          * From Condemned Storefronts To Penthouse Rentals: 4421 North Clark Goes On The Market
          * Poll: Duckworth Leads Kirk In General Election
          * Fitch Downgrades' CPS Credit To Junk


          * Governor Takes Bill Action
          * Governor Rauner Signs Veteran Preference Bill
          * Governor's Office Statement on Passage of HB 576
          * Time Running Out to Stop Legislator Pay Raise
          * Governor Announces Appointments




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller