SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: Kinzinger vs. Manzullo race now “too close to call”

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012

* We Ask America has a poll out that shows barely a difference in the 16th Congressional District Republican Primary race. The survey, taken March 11-12 has Congressman Don Manzullo at 42.64 percent and Congressman Kinzinger at 42.25 percent. From the pollster

Early on in the campaign, Kinzinger had all the momentum. At one point not too long ago, we polled Kinzinger up by as much as 13 percent. That support, as the old expression says, may have been “a mile wide and an inch deep.” Manzullo and his campaign team have ferociously fought back to the point that the race is a dead heat. […]

Logic dictates that Manzullo has the momentum leading into Illinois’ March 20 Primary, but Kinzinger continues to surprise and impress many with his abilities, and may have a better GOTV effort overall. As in any race, estimates concerning turnout vary greatly depending on who’s handicapping the contest.

At any rate, it may be a very late night for the folks in Illinois 16.

The polling firm’s last poll had Kinzinger up 47-34, so this is not good news for the Kinzinger camp.

* Meanwhile, Slate’s David Weigel looks at one of the ads Manzullo is running which claim Kinzinger isn’t conservative enough

The attack that leaps out at you: Kinzinger was “one of seven Republicans who voted to PAY FOR OBAMA’S APPOINTMENTS!” What does that mean? Just that Kinzinger opposed a summer 2011 amendment that would have denied a salary to anyone recess-appointed by Barack Obama. Really. That’s it. That’s the proof that he’s not conservative enough to represent a mostly-Republican district. It’ll be fascinating to see if this works.

* But a new political action committee that I’ve been telling subscribers about for a while now has jumped into this race on Kinzinger’s side. The Illinois Lunch Pail Republicans, created to back union-friendly Republicans, is reportedly doing a $100,000 independent expenditure on behalf of Kinzinger. Here’s the TV ad

Support by that group could become an issue.

* Related…

* ‘The one that made my wife weep’: The two Illinois GOP incumbents heading for a showdown Tuesday traded barbs in a contentious primary debate Tuesday night, where Don Manzullo accused Adam Kinzinger of producing a mail piece “that made my wife weep.”

* Manzullo, Kinzinger get testy over ads and conservative ratings, disagree on Afghanistan

* Congressmen clash over conservative title

* Illinois primary pits leaders vs. Tea Party

* Kinzinger ‘concerned’ but members think he’ll win: The belief on the Hill among Republican staffers and members tracking the 16th District contest is that while Manzullo has mounted a surprisingly sharp advertising blitz, Kinzinger’s response has been flat. Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s endorsement of Kinzinger Thursday was partly reflective of that sentiment.

* Press Release: Gun Owners of America Endorses Rep. Manzullo Over Rep. Kinzinger

* American Conservative Union backs Manzullo over Kinzinger

* Bill Brady endorses Manzullo

- Posted by Rich Miller        


16 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 10:21 am:

    The Hill story is very interesting. GOP House leadership has gotten involved in a number of primary races. You better win those when you’re the boss.


  2. - ZC - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 10:59 am:

    I’m chiefly curious about who the 16th primary voters are supporting for Prez. How did Dillard and Brady do in the newly reconstituted 16th? That’s probably the best tell. I expect low turnout on the 20th so anywhere there’s a competitive primary is likely to see a relative bump in participation.


  3. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:03 am:

    The ILPR brings up some interesting questions. Operators 150 wants to support Kinzinger, but they do not want to do it directly? They organized in late Feb with $50k from the Operators, who will put in the other $50k? Also, the ILPR is a state PAC, how much spending on federal races would make them a federal PAC? And, does the NRA like Adam as well?


  4. - OneMan - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:04 am:

    Have to say out near Sheradin and Mendota (on my way to curling) I see a lot more Manzullo signs on 52 than I do Kinzinger


  5. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:07 am:

    ===Also, the ILPR is a state PAC===

    They have a federal PAC too.


  6. - Marcus Agrippa - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:29 am:

    I wish Manzullo could play up the fact that the nasty mailers are coming from a bunch of rich Texans and that Eric Cantor has stuck his nose in it to boost his shot at Speaker. We’ve got enough problems without a bunch of outsiders telling us what to do.


  7. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:53 am:

    ==They have a federal PAC too.==

    Thanks. I wondered about that. I went to the FEC page, but couldn’t find the PAC.


  8. - Beef_Eater - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 1:13 pm:

    Kinzinger better ramp up here in a bit. He is probably leading with early voting as his organization has really been on top of this while Manzullo’s . . . not so much.


  9. - chad - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 2:26 pm:

    If the tea partiers come out strongly for Santorum/Newt — and there are many in this new district — Manzullo will be the beneficiary. Don is always popular with these folks.


  10. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 3:03 pm:

    ZC, here’s a link to the 2010 primary map by county.

    http://geognerd.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/repgov_ramp.jpg

    The only county that supported Dillard in IL-16 was Boone County. Brady won the band of the district furthest from Chicago while McKenna won the band of the district closest to Chicago.


  11. - Rail Rider - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 4:53 pm:

    The big mo is definitely with Don.

    Adam’s inexperience is hurting him. On the WTTW debate Adam said that if he lost he’d leave the country, underscoring his lack of connection or roots in the 16th, or even his current 11th district.


  12. - RonThelurker - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 5:19 pm:

    Really? Adam said hed deploy to afghanistan. If thats leaving the country, and If thats your hit, wow.


  13. - Citizen Soldier - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 9:28 pm:

    Doesn’t Adam have a civilian employer to go back to? Every guardsman and reservist I know has one.

    It’s not my hit, but it does make you wonder what his community connection is, especially with us pulling out of Afghanistan next year.


  14. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:34 pm:

    Interesting note about the Operating Engineers, Rich.

    I noticed the NRA did not endorse in the race, but gave both candidates A’s.


  15. - Rail Rider - Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 6:37 am:

    Heard this morning that Cantor is doubling down and dropping $50K on Kinzinger on the eve of the primary. Evidence that at this late date they must think Kinzinger is losing.

    I spent some time in the guard myself. I wonder why Kinzinger constantly volunteers to leave his unit, the people he trains with, and do these short tours. Doesn’t this leave his unit in a lurch when the unit gets called up? The whole point of the national guard and reserve is that people know each other and have trained together for years. How many of these short tours has he done? Are his fellow unit members that glad to see him go?


  16. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 7:18 am:

    The recess appointments kinzinger voted to fund were actually not recess appointments they were illegal appointments made to the NLRB when Obama claimed congress was he recess. He was one of a small number of Republicans that voted to fund them. All his conservative colleagues voted against such funding.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - More on the state grant suspensions
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraiser/event list
* How can we miss you if you won't go away?
* Question of the day
* Supreme Court justice ordered to testify
* Chicago downgraded
* Today's number: 4-6 weeks
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Human service cuts and state grant suspensions
* Stating the obvious
* *** UPDATED x1 - Double-down *** They really make this too easy...
* Crain's: "Market-based" solution is rigged
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Even more problems for Schock
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * The Huawei Watch Brings Serious Style To Android Wear
        * LG Watch Urbane LTE: hands-on (Video)
        * We are live from MWC 2015 (Video)
        * The Week in iPad Cases: Rugged protection from Roocase and Kensington, and more
        * Take my advice: Do not take this guy's advice
        * First time carrying an iPhone daily driver
        * Level Up! The “Coming Soon” Edition

        * Amazon's Deeply Discounting Tax Software Today, Plus More Deals
        * Ramp up your Tumblr skills with these 21 keyboard shortcuts
        * Ramp up your Tumblr skills with these 21 keyboard shortcuts
        * Jump-starting marketing tech adoption by bundling data
        * LG Watch Urbane LTE Hands-On Review
        * Lumia 640, Lumia 640 XL Accidentally Unveiled Ahead Of Time
        * How Jessica Alba’s The Honest Company Thinks It Can Build a Healthier Johnson & Johnson

        * Mellie Wolfgang: From the Baseball Hall of Fame Library Player Files
        * White Sox remain positive after Sale's injury
        * Sale's absence opens opportunity for Rodon, others
        * Sale fractures right foot in accident at home
        * Chris Sale fractures foot, resting for 3 weeks
        * Athletic Mitchell striving for consistent results
        * Sale fractures right foot in accident at home

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Illinois' newly-elected Governor shows support .....
        * Butler Picked as New Illinois Lawmaker..
        * Editorial: Plan to take money from local govern.....
        * Sanguinetti: Will be 'partner' to gov..
        * Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will have to answer .....
        * Mike Madigan says budget impasse will send Legi.....
        * WILSON: Illinois likely to see some sort of tax.....


        * Late-winter storms spread across areas of Southwest
        * Moody's downgrades Chicago's rating over pensions
        * Butler picked as new Illinois lawmaker
        *
        * $1 million offered for ideas on stopping Chicago violence
        * Des Plaines alderman accused of trespassing in home
        * Plainfield teacher accused of sexually assaulting student
        * Moody's downgrades Chicago's rating over pensions
        * Bank official held in alleged fake robbery case
        * 2 skiers die at Breckenridge in span of 4 days

        * Tim Butler, congressional staffer, selected to fill former Rep. Rich Brauer's seat
        * Schock reimburses costs for lavish 'Downton Abbey' office decor
        * Brauer replacement could be chosen as early as Saturday
        * Quinn advocates consumer rights, blasts Rauner's budget
        * Rauner says he's 'staying out' of Chicago mayor's race
        * Quinn advocates consumer rights in Loyola speech
        * Judge won't delay sentencing for former state lawmaker Farnham
        * Lt. Gov. Sanguinetti says GOP should court women, Latinos
        * Explore salary information for the state of Illinois
        * State Rep. Raymond Poe to be back at work next week

        * Illinois hospitals, health care groups oppose Rauner's cuts to managed care
        * Why even mid-sized trading firms are hurting
        * What's happening with Chinatown's Tony Hu?
        * What's going on at Quick Leonard Kieffer?
        * National Louis University's radical rethink


          * Man, 57, shot in Gresham
          * Chicago ties 140-year-old record for coldest February
          * Pedestrian struck by freight train in Downers Grove
          * Man, 24, shot to death in Schiller Park
          * 3 suffer minor injuries in fire in South Side two-flat
          * Man held without bail in molestation of 4 girls
          * Lawyers wary of claim about Chicago police 'black site,' say abuse citywide
          * Waukegan man charged with shooting Fox Lake bar bouncer
          * Prosecutors: Pizza order led to driver's robbery, shooting in Dolton
          * 2 counties to decide on plan for Indiana Toll Road


          * Chronic Mismanagement Drove State Into Its Fiscal Mess
          * People
          * Essay – Cashing In On Cutting Carbon
          * Lawmakers Aim To Prohibit Sexual Orientation Conversion Therapy For Minors
          * Legislative Checklist March 2015
          * Lincoln Lore
          * Illinois Not Alone In Post-Recession Budget Woes
          * Rauner’s Budget Poses Risk For Emanuel’s Re-election
          * History Series: The Importance Of "Poles" In Campaigning
          * Child Care Providers Rally in Capitol


          * Our Opinion: Looking for the leaders among Springfield's candidates
          * Statehouse Insider: That's not a nice thing to say
          * Rep. Rodney Davis and Rep. Mike Bost: Strong financial markets benefit Illinois
          * Quote of the Day: Sunday, March 1, 2015
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Report talk of Houston fundraiser just 'secondhand' info
          * Scott Zeramby: Consider the environment as marijuana industry emerges in Illinois
          * Tim Butler, congressional staffer, selected to fill former Rep. Rich Brauer's seat
          * Charles Krauthammer: The fatal flaw in the Iran deal
          * Quote of the Day: Saturday, Feb. 28, 2015
          * Schock reimburses costs for lavish 'Downton Abbey' office decor


          * Community-outreach initiative brings officers to schools
          * Crime blotter 3/2/15
          * Overnight yields 2 inches; snow falling again
          * March heralds yet more snow
          * Storm dumps at least 6 inches of snow in Champaign-Urbana area
          * Storm dumps at least 6 inches of snow in area
          * For the retirees, March 1-8, 2015
          * Youths will share joy, enthusiasm at C-U stops
          * Dr. Cook gone; community loses
          * Top of the Morning, March 1, 2015


          * Valencia beats Sociedad 2-0 in Spanish league
          * Blatter concerned by Russian soccer racism before World Cup
          * Astronauts take 3rd spacewalk to complete tricky cable job
          * Sierra Leone's vice president in quarantine for Ebola
          * Pope prays with thousands for kidnap victims in Syria, Iraq

          * Rep. Rodney Davis and Rep. Mike Bost: Stro...
          * Senate passes bill, prevents Homeland Secu...
          * Butler Picked as New Illinois Lawmaker
          * Rep. Bost visits Prairie Farms’ Carbondale...
          * Congressman: Obama Has Blown 60 Years of A...
          * Lincoln Day Dinner for Jackson County Repu...
          * Combined Insurance Honored as Top Military...
          * Republicans Debate DHS Stopgap Bill
          * State's attorneys address public safety pr...
          * Senate Passes Bill to Keep DHS Funded

          * Durbin Announces Federal Funding For Rural......
          * Durbin: First-Of-Its-Kind Report On Solita......
          * Durbin Meets With Transcom Commander For B......
          * Dems caught between Obama, Netanyahu...

          * Congress' lack of trust may thwart Obama o......
          * RPT-Homeland Security funding drama darken......
          * Editorial: A House, and its ruling party, ......

          * Skokie’s Golan strikers and labor solidarity.
          * Monday Is Casimir Pulaski Day
          * Jesse White Says Mayor Should “Rethink” Red Light Cameras
          * It Was So Much Fun, We're Voting Again On April 7th
          * Is Rauner urging Wilson to support Emanuel, or is he not?
          * Where's Weyermuller? At a Speakeasy with Chicago Young Republicans
          * Big Pharma's PR problem could stymie lawmakers' efforts to limit vaccine choices
          * State Rep. Wheeler: Human-Trafficking -- Closer to Home than You Think
          * FCC approves net neutrality
          * Crowdfunding proposal introduced in Illinois House


          * IEMA Urges People to Prepare for Severe Weather - Tornadoes, floods and severe storms can happen any time of year
          * IDHS helps more than 5,000 individuals with disabilities find jobs - Program offers necessary tools to earn a living wage and become more independent
          * 24th Anniversary Desert Storm Remembrance Ceremony
          * Illinois Department of Human Rights Announces 2015 Spring Training Schedule
          * Snow and Freezing Rain to Impact Travel in Illinois - IDOT Crews Prepared to Battle Winter Weather this Weekend




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller