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Dems go with Enyart, but did they do themselves any favors?
Monday, Jun 25, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller * As expected, retired National Guard General Bill Enyart got the nod for the 12th District Democratic slot…
* Enyart immediately hit Plummer on a sore spot…
* But Plummer isn’t going to a be a pushover, no matter how infamous that WTTW interview made him. He has a statewide campaign and a congressional primary under his belt. Enyart has never run for anything. Plummer has raised a bunch of money, the US Chamber is pumping cash into his effort, and he has a ground game. Enyart has nothing. Plummer will win more votes than a usual Republican would in Madison County because he’s from there and his father is very bigtime. And the Democrats really needed somebody who could appeal to the more “southern” counties outside the Metro East. I don’t think they did that here. Enyart is an unknown, untested candidate up against a battle-tested, well-funded opponent. Enyart is still better than Harriman, but the Democrats, so far, appear to have only marginally increased their chances against Plummer. I’d say, right now, it still leans in the Republican’s favor there.
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- Freeman - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 1:48 pm:
Agreed. Way too early to tell yet if Enyart will be a boon or bust for the Dems. He’s almost like a lottery ticket at this late stage - looks good on paper, but a completely unproven commodity on the campaign trail who hasn’t been vetted by the media yet.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 1:49 pm:
Well I, for one, would like to see Plummer’s tax return from 1983. That would be a neat trick.
- Highland, Il - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 2:00 pm:
47th - That was a double hit…show your tax returns & oh yeah, you’re still wet behind the ears.
- CircularFiringSquad - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 2:12 pm:
we would like to see JP’s tax return from any year. We don’t believe is necessary to file a tax return when the only cash in your pockets is Daddy’s allowance.
JP just got sent the woodshed. Bye Bye Bye
- J - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 2:15 pm:
I almost wonder if Plummer is still listed as a dependent on his father’s return?
- Anon - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 2:19 pm:
Ugh… Jason Plummer is a joke. It’s not even a partisan issue. Regardless of policy positions or philosophies, we should strive to elect people that actually know a thing or two. Each side has people as dumb as doorknobs, and we should strive to do better than that.
- Bill - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 2:21 pm:
I think you called this one right, Miller. My money is on the Plumster.
- Downstate Joe - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 2:47 pm:
Plummer is very vulnerable on the tax return issue.
- south of 64 - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 2:49 pm:
Bradley would have given him a run. Picked up the same D votes in metro-east plus he would have drawn far more D’s than Enyart vs JP in the south. Now it’s 52% - 48% Plummer. Bradley 51% - 49% if he were nominee.
- Down South voter - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 2:54 pm:
Plummer has ground game advantage. Enyart, democrats, have a built in ground game. UNIONS!!
- Dr. Wade - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 2:55 pm:
Def. should have gone to Bradley…
- wordslinger - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 3:18 pm:
How much TV news coverage can be expected in the district? That would seem about the only way you can really turn up the heat on tax returns.
Plummer will have to be a little more careful about resume inflation this time around. He took some pretty good whacks on that when he ran for louey gov.
- Shore - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 3:21 pm:
are obama/pelosi + or - in the district?
- just sayin' - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 3:40 pm:
Rich, you’re the expert. But a Major General vs. a rich kid who has lost before? On paper this Enyart sounds like the best IL candidate since the Republicans picked a black former Miss America from Harvard Law….oh that’s right…
- just sayin' - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 3:47 pm:
By my calculation Jason would have been around 1 in 1983.
So allowance maybe only twice the avg. Illinoisan’s income.
- StevePK - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 3:47 pm:
As a retired AF enlisted guy, I don’t understand why any person in the military is a Democrat……..
- wordslinger - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 3:48 pm:
–As a retired AF enlisted guy, I don’t understand why any person in the military is a Democrat……..–
Why’s that, speaking as one retired AF enlisted guy?
- Deep South - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 3:56 pm:
Enyart won’t have any trouble with Plummer. The campaigning hasn’t even started. Wait till after Labor Day….then re-evaluate the situation on, say, Oct. 15.
- SouthI - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 4:02 pm:
I’ve followed this replacement closely. I am sure the Plummer team is seeing what I saw when I dug around on Enyart and his wife and their work/political history. I don’t think either one of them should be hyping their resumes. Lean Plummer.
- Freeman - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 4:11 pm:
=== are obama/pelosi + or - in the district? ===
I’m not sure if I missed snark or not on this one, but they are both about as - as you can be.
Rich had a few posts on their + or - in Southern Illinois a few months ago, one based on a Paul Simon Institute poll.
Things have not improved for them since. Almost like a Democrat in Northern Illinois running for Congress with Bush on the ticket in 2004.
- East Sider - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 4:16 pm:
I just read in the Belleville News-Democrat that Enyart is “demanding” that Plummer debate him. Um, Mr. Enyart, you don’t have to “demand” anything. Plummer has had a standing invitation for debates in all 12 counties since he won the primary in March.
Not the best start for Enyart.
- LilLebowski - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 4:44 pm:
Can someone give me the back story on my Rep. Bradley chose not to run in the first place and then tried for the appointment? He would have made a great candidate.
- D.P. Gumby - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 5:23 pm:
I know Bill and he has a secret weapon in his spouse, the retired Judge. They will out work Plumbly and since the Judge has run several elections, there is the core of a campaign organization from her past runs. You may be right, Rich, but I don’t think it is that simple.
- RFK fan - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 6:25 pm:
As I say this, please keep in mind that it’s coming from a liberal: a lot of people have little idea the quality of individual that is at or near the top of the military services. Enyart is a hard worker and a quick study. I’ve run for a couple of minor offices and know that one should take the “novice” bit seriously (I had it when rich people decide to try to start their political careers at the level of the U.S. Senate). Enyart works incredibly hard and his wife is well wired into the legal community. If the money comes in for him (and I have to believe it will, otherwise he wouldn’t have gotten in the race), I’d say this one is a tossup.
- RFK fan - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 6:27 pm:
And StevePK, even though I know we’re outnumbered (and I respect some of the reasons that is so), I have to say, as an Army guy that has 24 years in active & reserve, I find it easily defensible to be a Democrat and to be in the military.
- SouthI - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 6:39 pm:
Gumby - I hear what you are saying and Plummer has his weaknesses but I am not sure, especially in this environment and considering the makeup of southern Illinois, that it is wise to have a retired St. Clair County judge as your “secret weapon.”
- JuneBug - Monday, Jun 25, 12 @ 10:34 pm:
SouthI, Bill’s wife is a well-respected family law attorney and made her bones as a Judge in family court. Neither she nor Bill have ever chased an ambulance. They are both highly esteemed in their hometown. Your dig on her past as a judge looks desperate. This race is a toss-up, but Enyart should do better with the SAFB population and older voters than a 30-year old who lied about his military service 2 years ago and won’t release his tax returns because they would confirm what everyone already knows: he did not earn his self-estimated wealth of $20-30 million by being a successful self-made businessman, but was given that by his father. Bill is a straight shooter and has a keen mind. Plummer won’t win any debates and his resume is paper-thin in comparison. All Plummer can do is outspend Enyart - he won’t be able to slander Enyart like he did to Cook.
- JoeVerdeal - Tuesday, Jun 26, 12 @ 1:38 am:
Bradley would have been a much safer choice, actually. Enyart will need to endeavor to show himself…and his ideas….to the people. I have a feeling that he is the better candidate, but he has his work cut out for him. He will need to work very, very hard to overcome his disadvantages.
- ironman - Tuesday, Jun 26, 12 @ 6:03 am:
Lets talk about the transparent process. Enyart started a pac on wed. And was raising funds 13000. Enyart says he will out work the plummer camp……he is clueless
- Downstate Steve - Tuesday, Jun 26, 12 @ 8:47 pm:
I’ll need to respectfully disagree with you, Rich, for all the reasons that JuneBug has already listed. One thing does give me pause, though: Just googled and came up with no website for the Enyart campaign. Granted it’s only 48 hours since he was chosen, but in this day and with such an uncommon (domain-name-friendly) last name, no one in this swing-district race could gin up a quick “welcome” and “bio” page for him? He’s getting plenty of headlines right now; you would think the more seasoned pols in that district would have tended to a website within hours of announcing the choice.