* The Daily Herald surveyed 132 Republicans who were elected to or picked for the national party convention this month and received 49 responses. Here’s the first of the stories from the DH survey…
Of the responses, 42.9 percent preferred Rubio. Another 12.2 percent selected Portman. Christie and Ryan received 10 percent of votes, respectively. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was fifth, with 8.2 percent of votes.
State Rep. Dennis Reboletti of Elmhurst, a delegate, called each of the potential picks “outstanding individuals.” Reboletti described Christie and Ryan as “likable and genuine people,” but noted he feels the 41-year-old Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, “will be the choice because he can help carry Florida, reach out to the Latino community and court the younger vote. His story and upbringing are compelling.”
But delegate Bill Cadigan, of Winnetka, says he’s hoping for Chris Christie, because he thinks the boisterous governor “offers a personality contrast to Mitt Romney while embodying the fiscal conservative principles.”
Steve Kim, 10th District Romney delegate from Northbrook, said he’s curious to see what Romney does, adding that the question has been lobbed back and forth in most of his casual political discussions in recent weeks.
* Chart…
I’m told questions were also asked about the upcoming Republican gubernatorial primary (including potential candidates Sen. Matt Murphy, Sen. Dan Duffy Duffy, Treasurer Dan Rutherford, Sen. Kirk Dillard, and Congressman Aaron Schock), pension reform and gay marriage. Stay tuned.
LIVE session coverage...
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 10:22 am:
Historically, as far as helping or hurting in the general election, the VP pick means nothing.
LBJ may have put JFK over the line in Texas, which won him the election (not the urban legend that Daley won it stealing votes in Chicago), but that’s arguable.
Still, if Romney believes Rubio would give him the edge in Florida, he should go for it. Because without Florida, Romney has very little chance of winning.
- Cheryl - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 10:25 am:
Mark Rubio has stated on a number of occasions he is not interested. I suppose he could change his mind, but what happens if he says no?
- Old Shepherd - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 10:27 am:
While I tend to agree with Wordslinger, I think the right/wrong VP pick can hurt more than help. I certainly think that Palin hurt McCain badly. However, would he have won with a different pick? Probably not.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 10:33 am:
Word is absolutely correct that the Veep choice has little to do with election results, if anything. In this cycle, the first candidate that lays down a detailed platform of convincing ideas will be the candidate that captures the voters needed to put him over the top.
That said, I think the strongest choice is Ryan because if I were Romney, I would pivot this debate to be only about budgets/deficit/spending and their effects on growth/jobs. This means you need to embrace the House budget (or something like it), authored by Ryan. Stand behind it and promote it, and there is no person I have heard or talked to that does it better than Ryan.
Paul Ryan is currently the best person to explain growth and jobs to the average person in a way that is sympathetic to the voter.
- Dirty Red - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 10:44 am:
“I’m told questions were also asked about the upcoming Republican gubernatorial primary…pension reform and gay marriage.”
I sincerely hope the Herald only asked those questions for internal use instead of writing a story or two about where GOP stands using a very unscientific and flawed surveying method.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 10:49 am:
The minimum threshold for a Veep pick is can the candidate assume the presidency if necessary. Palin clearly hurt McCain on this basic question yet somehow George HW Bush survived despite picking Quayle.
Rubio is to left of the GOP base on immigration. While that might help with Florida and some independents and/or Latinos, the question for Romney is whether Rubio hurts him too much with the base.
Ryan’s budget plan is unbelievably conservative and will be a pinata for Dems to whack at for the next three months. I think Ryan would cost Romney Florida given the impact the Ryan budget will have on Social Security.
Christie won’t accept it. Jindal or Pawlenty would be fine. Portman clearly has the right experience and Ohio is a key state.
As a Democrat, Rice is the pick I’m most afraid of. Is she too liberal (on choice for example) for the GOP? If not, she’d be a tremendous pick for Romney.
- Shore - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 10:49 am:
Considering the proximity of Wisconsin and Indiana to Illinois and fact that Minnesota isn’t that far away it’s notable that Ryan (whose district borders Illinois and has been a major face now for 2+ years) Walker (who isn’t even listed and has been a major face as well) Daniels (and I know he’s a university chief now and “technically” out of the game) and Pawlenty who ran for President, aren’t rated higher.
They’re not making the sale, despite the chances they’ve had.
Jindal-the only candidate from a state that’s gone “red” every presidential race this century gets only 2 % suggesting to me there’s a huge difference between where the national party is and what at least the establishment party folks want.
- Wensicia - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 11:06 am:
What can Rubio offer Latinos that Obama hasn’t after he usurped the “Dream Act” before Rubio could present an acceptable plan to conservatives?
Ryan’s budget plans would hurt seniors, he’s out. Christie would completely overshadow Romney. Rice would be the best choice, but her pro-choice stand eliminates her. Jindal doesn’t bring anything to the contest that will make a difference.
I think Romney will pick Portman or Pawlenty. He doesn’t want a choice that may outshine him or trip up in the media spotlight; or lose more votes than gain.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 11:12 am:
–Paul Ryan is currently the best person to explain growth and jobs to the average person in a way that is sympathetic to the voter.–
Cincy, the Paul Ryan budget is lunacy. It does not even purport to have anything to do with economic growth or jobs.
Ryan would basically reduce the national government to the Pentagon, creating 50 duchies united only by the necessity to feed a voracious military-industrial complex that has no serious enemies. No Medicare, no Social Security, no student loans, no transportation, no nothing.
It’s amazing after the 20th Century Progressives led the way in devising and defending a capitalist system that helped build the most powerful, wealthy, free country in history, a bunch of nincompoops want to toss it all away in service of a ridiculous theory of selfishness from a scatter-brained failed writer of turgid screenplays. It’s Ayn Rand, minus the atheism.
Of course, Rep. Ryan will gobble up as much federal pork as he can for Janesville.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/08/06/120806fa_fact_lizza
In a related note, the Bolsheviks at the Wall Street Journal are concerned the current and coming cuts in federal spending are going to toss us in to a doozy of a recession.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444840104577553551718500764.html?KEYWORDS=spending+cuts+recession
- ZC - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 11:22 am:
It is actually very unclear to me that Palin hurt McCain, and it’s at least as plausible that she helped a bit. Yes, maybe she turned a few “moderate independents” against McCain, but mostly I think what she did was rile up a lot more grassroots door knockers, phone bankers and Tea Party types to go out and volunteer for McCain. From a purely Machiavellian standpoint it’s not at all clear she hurt his campaign. Or who was the perfect overlooked candidate who would have been so much more value added?
Re Romney, I am gonna guess Portman. Yes Romney needs Florida - but he REALLY needs Ohio. Obama is narrowly ahead in OH, still, and without Ohio Romney can about hang it up. Portman and his folks there could be worth 1-2% and that might be the winning margin.
Last, I’ll just say it: Romney will pick Portman, not Rubio, because at the end of the day however much he will pander to them, Romney is not a Tea Partier and he doesn’t want to put a confirmed Tea Partier that high in the ranks of his administration. Same reason why he won’t pick Paul Ryan, he doesn’t want a “Young Gun” either. He will go for Portman or Pawlenty. And more credit to him.
- Plutocrat03 - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 11:25 am:
As much as Rice is a compelling candidate, the most important disqualifier is that she has never run for elected office.
- Shore - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 11:26 am:
Have we seen any evidence yet that Rubio is going to help the GOP anymore with latinos than Colin Powell did with african american voters?
- And I Approved This Message - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 11:27 am:
Little known factoid about Rubio is that from age eight to 13 he was a practicing Mormon. At 13 he was baptised a Catholic. Even though he was a kid and it was only for a short period of time I think that’s too much LDS for one ticket. Won’t happen. I agree with Wensicia - Portman or Pawlenty. ZZZZZZZZZ…
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 11:29 am:
Seriously, Pawlenty? That dude got scared because he couldn’t beat Michelle Bachman in the Iowa straw poll. Not the Iowa caucuses, the straw poll.
Not exactly the wing man you want in battle.
- Madison - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 11:37 am:
I believe that WS is probably correct in that beyond FL the benefits diminish, but I also believe that the choice must shore up a state that cannot be lost. Think FL or Ohio. I suspect Hispanic voters will give little credit beyond policy for a Rubio choice, and believe it or not, the premise comes off a little patronizing. That said, the only two people that can save the GOP ticket from Rominity are Bill Brady or Jason Plummer
- cassandra - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 11:50 am:
How likely is it that Portman would carry Ohio for Romney. Well-qualified though he may be, he did work for Bush and he seems kind of, well, boring. And Romney as president would hardly be a wild man, so Portman isn’t needed to rein him in.
From the youthful Rubio’s perspective, is this the right time? He has plenty of it. Better to wait until 2016 and maybe be part of a ticket running against Hillary? Wait until 2024? Or better to take the leap now and enhance his stature and chances of at least staying in the Senate. I’m sure this makes for some interesting discussion among Rubio staffers.
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 12:01 pm:
So 42% of the GOPies delegates will be Mitt Plummer-Romney shafts them and picks a boring Bush era midwesterner… what a shame…we would prefer Christie who looks like a model of the Hindenburg just before the explosion. Media would trail along with matches, lighters and that quote from the old time radio guy.
Rubio or Chubbs Christie would force Cheney to revise his pick about worst VEEP is last century and then CaribouBarbie will be totally lost to the ages.
Fire,Aim, Ready
- Wensicia - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 12:30 pm:
A conservative friend of mine thinks Romney should pick Huckabee. He believes this would attract the evangelicals that shunned Romney in the primaries.
- Northsider - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 12:37 pm:
Isn’t the Romney campaign already on record stating the VP pick has to be someone who won’t overshadow Willard?
If they stick to that position — and with this candidate, God only knows how long that’ll last — who’s left? Pawlenty? Portman? Please.
If Romney’s plans for the country weren’t so scary, this would be pure comedy gold.
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 12:41 pm:
Wonder why Gags and Billboard have not blamed Madigan for rigging the DH survey to favor someone not really on the Plummer-ROmney list?
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 12:57 pm:
Back to Word’s initial (correct) comment. One of the interesting things that fell out of McCain’s choice of Palin (the most “significant” choice of Veep since McGovern’s of Eagleton) was a rash of scholarly papers about the impact of the Veep choice on an election. The scholars seem to agree that even on he MOST significant, weird, impactful choices, the results are affected by at most 0.5% of the vote total.
Normally, this movement of voters is insignificant in the scheme of things. Given the current thinking that there are only about 5% of voters that are still able to be persuaded, the Veep may be important in this particular election.
However, since I doubt we will have an election as close as current polling suggests, in either electoral or raw vote terms, my gut is that the choice is a wash as far as outcome. My recommendation of Ryan is based on who helps Romney govern the best; who can explain the economy to the average Joe (making up for Romney’s alleged personality deficit), who can push legislation through Congress (overcoming a weakness Romney I think Romney may have). Ryan is young (like Rubio and Christie), a wonk (like Portman), from the mid-west (not that that is important). Ryan is likable, enthusiastic, his blue eyes are piercing and he is handsome, has a picture perfect family, and shores up Romney’s right flank.
- Thoughts... - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 1:12 pm:
Personally, I’m holding out for Rafalco. He won’t overshadow Willard, and he’s still worth more than the average american will make in a lifetime! It’s gotta be why they’re waiting for the Games to end before announcing.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 2:06 pm:
For esses and gees, Chris Christie would be the best. Imagine Gov. Christie debating VP Biden.
I think the choice comes down to Condi Rice or Marco Rubio. The one prohibitive about Marco - at least from a commitment standpoint - is that he has a large family and may not want to spend the next 2 1/2 to 3 months on the road. True - he does travel quite a bit now. But actually being a national CANDIDATE and not just a figurehead or fundraiser is different. Plus, he may not want to relocate his family should he become VP. Condi makes a lot of sense - balance the ticket with an economic mind and a foreign policy mind.
- Thoughts... - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 2:08 pm:
-Condi makes a lot of sense…-
And that’s exactly why she won’t be picked
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 2:21 pm:
Since the Nixon/Reagan/Bush era of landslides, the high water mark in the electoral college for the GOP was 286 for Bush II in 2004.
There’s just not a lot of wiggle room when you essentially write off the Pacific Coast, the Atlantic Coast from Bangor to DC and Illinois.
There are few reasonable scenarios in which Romney can win without Florida. It’s close there, and if Rubio is worth even a couple of points in his home state, he has to be the pick.
- just sayin' - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 2:51 pm:
Why would any national R care what someone from the hapless IL GOP thinks?
Maybe do the opposite would be good advice.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 3:16 pm:
To those who support Rice…
She would be a poor choice. The Republican base is just now solidifying its support around Romney. She would be divisive at just the time unity is required. Tell me ONE PERSON who would change his vote from Obama to Romney because of the choice of Rice. I can mention several groups that would be disposed to sit on their hands (family and pro-life groups, evangelicals), these people would withhold their financial support, and possibly their votes. Any small group of independents who would choose Romney over Obama because of a Rice Veep choice would be swamped by the effect of the loss of these conservative groups.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 3:52 pm:
===Tell me ONE PERSON who would change his vote from Obama to Romney because of the choice of Rice.===
Rev. William Owens and quite possibly many others in his congregation and other like-minded pastors.
http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/31/black-pastors-group-launches-anti-obama-campaign-around-gay-marriage/
OK, that’s more than one, and from the tone of his comments, it’s just as likely that Owens wasn’t planning to vote for Obama before the gay marriage announcement. But still, if you ever hope to expand your party, you need to reach beyond the base.
- Thoughts... - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 4:00 pm:
==To those who support Rice…She would be a poor choice.==
Party of angry white men - your (shrinking) table is ready.
God forbid they try to reach anyone else. Actually, thank god they don’t.
- Cheryl - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 5:17 pm:
-Condi makes a lot of sense…-
You mean that person who couldn’t imagine anyone would use a plane to take down a building? Even though the French had already uncovered a plot to do just that? That Condi?
Almost as bad a choice as Palin.
- Cheryl - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 5:26 pm:
And as far as Rubio taking any of the Hispanic votes from Obama–Rubio is not Hispanic. He’s Cuban. Go ask your Hispanic friends–there’s a difference.
- Wensicia - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 5:52 pm:
ABC news is reporting it’s down to Portman, Pawlenty or Ryan.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 1, 12 @ 10:39 pm:
c–As much as Rice is a compelling candidate, the most important disqualifier is that she has never run for elected office. –
I call BS.
I would vote for Condi in a second.
She is clearly the smartest and coolest cat on the planet.
Believe me, I know the ups and downs of the job,and how it can all turn to stuff.
But that lady is a hammer.
She and W saved more lives in Africa than you can imagine. God bless then,