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Dem poll: Bustos within two

Friday, Sep 28, 2012

* Democratic congressional candidate Cheri Bustos has released new poll numbers which purport to show her race against Republican freshman Bobby Schilling is neck and neck. From the pollster, GBA Strategies

Democrat Cheri Bustos is surging in her race against incumbent Republican Congressman Bobby Schilling in Illinois’ new 17th congressional district. A new survey1 of 600 likely voters shows Bustos has closed the gap dramatically since advertising in the campaign began, pulling to within 45 – 47 percent—well within the survey’s margin of error.

But the pollster then did some weird voodoo, which makes me uncomfortable…

In a vote simulation where undecided voters are allocated by their partisanship, Bustos and Schilling are completely tied 49 - 49 percent.

I really wish campaigns wouldn’t do that stuff without at least offering up some detailed explanations. It undermines their numbers.

* Schilling released numbers last month showing him leading the race by 13 points, 50-37. But the new polling shows President Obama is doing very well in the district

President Obama leads Governor Mitt Romney by a wide 54 – 41 percent margin in this race.

So, the unmentioned bottom line here is that Bustos is still vastly underperforming the top of the ticket.

* Methodology

Survey of 600 likely voters conducted by GBA Strategies September 24-26, 2012. Respondents were reached on land lines and cell phones. Results have a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

* Meanwhile, the House Majority PAC’s latest TV ad blasts away at Schilling

* Related…

* VIDEO: Bustos and Schilling debate

* Chuck Sweeny: Cheri Bustos, Bobby Schilling on Rock River Rumble

- Posted by Rich Miller        


14 Comments
  1. - Cincinnatus - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 12:39 pm:

    No crosstabs = crap poll.


  2. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 12:49 pm:

    Hard to see how both Obama and Schilling could be up 13 in that district.


  3. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 12:56 pm:

    Word, the Schilling poll was from over a month ago.

    Also, that area splits their tickets. Lane Evans won in 1984 by the same margin as Ronald Reagan, if memory serves.


  4. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:01 pm:

    Good points.

    Reagan was unique, though. He made a lot of Dems ticket-splitters all over the country.


  5. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:09 pm:

    Rich,

    I know Lane Evans… Bobby Schilling is not Lane Evans.


  6. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:11 pm:

    Point taken.


  7. - Liandro - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:29 pm:

    Pretty simple–Schilling is a hard-working guy who built his success the hard way, and people respect that. Bustos, on the other hand, made it where she is because the machine, and her godfather Dick Durbin, backed backed her. There are a lot of people on both sides who recognize the difference in candidate quality.

    By the same token, there are plenty of R’s in the area who have one or two Dem’s they pull the ballet for.


  8. - Shore - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:33 pm:

    there was a lot of bad stuff in that oppo file about schilling you posted so that this pac wouldn’t have to take a cookie cutter ad they’re probably running in 8 other districts. Democrats seem to be spending all of their energy in Illinois boosting duckworth and punching walsh instead of trying to also pick up these other pieces.


  9. - Liandro - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:38 pm:

    I meant ballot…Rich’s ballet comment must still be in my head!


  10. - bustos fan - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:42 pm:

    What does this mean:

    So, the unmentioned bottom line here is that Bustos is still vastly underperforming the top of the ticket.


  11. - Responsa - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 2:06 pm:

    ==What does this mean:==

    Bustos fan—It means that President Obama is the top of the Dem ticket. In the poll he is possibly leading his presidential opponent by double digits. The poll has Bustos possibly neck and neck with Schilling, her congressional opponent. (Not double digits ahead.) Therefore she is vastly underperforming Obama. Obama seems to be getting Dem and Indy voters that are not translating down to Bustos. Not good news for her.


  12. - Tom Joad - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 2:53 pm:

    It seems odd that only 5% are undecided in the Obama race, and that the undecided in the Bustos race is 5% or less. That is an amazing amount of name recognition at this point for a new candidate. Good for her!


  13. - mokenavince - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 3:58 pm:

    Obama will have coattails that should help in the
    mid-west pick up some new seats of Democrats.I don’t consider Indiana the mid-west more like Mars.


  14. - Disconnect - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 4:23 pm:

    Seems like an odd ad if Bustos is taking PAC money as well. I presume she is, but maybe I’ve got that wrong.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Afternoon updates
* Hospitals back removal of income tax sunsets
* The other strategy
* *** UPDATED 1x *** Quinn onboard; Rauner latches onto term limits proposal
* Because Illinois is a real battleground state
* Quinn dodges Rahm question on "Morning Joe"
* Morning Shorts
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