image
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
A registered voters poll? In October?

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012

* It’s October 11th. Election day is less than four weeks away. Yet the Tribune’s pollster is still surveying registered voters? That’s not great

With national surveys showing the contest between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney tightening, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows the home-state president retains a comfortable advantage in Illinois even though the economy has drained some of the enthusiasm.

Obama scored 55 percent support to 36 percent for Romney, virtually identical to a similar poll in February before Romney had clinched the nomination.

This poll isn’t worth a whole lot unless you factor in the fact that registered voters tend to lean more Democratic than likely voters.

So, with that in mind, here’s a real problem for the Democrats…

…Obama’s slipping support among white suburban women. The voting group, which is considered politically moderate, favored Obama 63 percent to 30 percent eight months ago. Now Obama’s backing has fallen to 50 percent, with 43 percent backing Romney.

That’s not good news for Democrats. White suburban women are the key to statewide races.

* Not that Obama is gonna lose Illinois, but his performance will impact down-ballot candidates. For instance

The poll asked a generic congressional support question. In Chicago and suburban Cook County, large majorities of voters said they would vote for an unspecified Democratic candidate for Congress. Even in the Republican-rich collar counties, 48 percent of voters said they’d side with a Democrat compared with 41 percent for a GOP contender.

That dynamic could help Democrats in three suburban contests: the northwest and west suburban 8th District, where Democrat Tammy Duckworth is challenging freshman Republican Rep. Joe Walsh, the north suburban 10th District where Democrat Brad Schneider is pitted against freshman GOP Rep. Robert Dold, and the far west and southwest suburban 11th District, where former Democratic Rep. Bill Foster is running against veteran Republican Rep. Judy Biggert. Chicago TV is full of millions of dollars in attack ads as interest groups try to sway voters.

But there also are three hard-fought congressional contests Downstate. Outside the Chicago region, 48 percent of voters said they’d side with a generic Republican, compared with 42 percent who preferred a Democrat. That lay of the land could help Republicans retain two seats and pick up a third now held by a retiring Democrat.

Again, adjust those Democratic numbers down and you can see the problem here.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


8 Comments
  1. - Downstater - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 9:16 am:

    Don’t see the problem, if the Republican candidates win. Little bias there, Rich.


  2. - Loop Lady - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 9:17 am:

    Hmmm…maybe the party needs to stop traveling out of State and shore up support in IL…hard to beleive suburban women are ok with Romney’s campaign against women that will deny them reproductive rights, healthcare, and equal pay…


  3. - Cassiopeia - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 9:20 am:

    You are spot on to see the problem with a registered voter as opposed to a likely voter poll. Everybody but the Obama team knows they have a turnout problem that they haven’t been able to crack. The 20-somethings at Obama HQ are so in love with their ability to stream large numbers of emails and social media contacts that they are missing what is happening on the ground.


  4. - wordslinger - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 9:39 am:

    –Don’t see the problem, if the Republican candidates win. Little bias there, Rich.–

    Where’s the bias, other than in your non-comprehending reading?

    Rich wrote: “…here’s a real problem for the Democrats…” and “…that’s not good news for Democrats.”

    See how that works?

    Romney’s on a roll. Nate Silver had Obama with an 86% chance of winning on October 3. He’s down to 68% today.


  5. - Skeeter - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 10:04 am:

    So far, the Dems congressional campaigns in Illinois have been awful. They had a great chance to pick up at least three House seats.

    Right now, they will likely either be even or down one.


  6. - just sayin' - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 10:32 am:

    If the Dems spent even a little money to remind voters here how having an IL native as president helps tremendously in hauling back the pork, you would see tons of Republicans voting for Obama too. It’s all about self interest let’s face it, especially in this state.

    With no reelection to worry about and no nead to keep other states quite as happy, Obama and Durbin and Kirk can ship the pork back in train cars in a 2nd term. Now THAT’S a winning message in IL.


  7. - Logic not emotion - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 10:46 am:

    “With no reelection to worry about and no nead to keep other states quite as happy, Obama and Durbin and Kirk can ship the pork back in train cars in a 2nd term. Now THAT’S a winning message in IL.”

    But possibly a losing message in swing states so why would they risk pushing something that is almost certain to be distributed elsewhere almost immediately when they are confident of Illinois anyway.


  8. - wishbone - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 11:58 am:

    And in the face of these problems for the Democrats, Toni Preckwinkle plays directly into the hands of Republicans and the NRA by reinforcing the “grab your guns” theme. Millions of voters nationally who would naturally vote Democratic if they voted their economic interests are lost to the party because of this anti-gun nonsense which will have absolutely no impact on violence.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Cardinal Francis George services announced
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Caption contest!
* Question of the day
* Hold off a bit, please
* The mental health cost shift
* Credit Unions – “People Helping People” and their Communities
* Redefining Darin
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner response *** Madigan to Rauner: Disclose how you reached your budget decisions
* Today's must-read
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* *** UPDATED x1 *** This morning's "right to work" tally
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * With Hykoo, You Can Combine Video And Text To Create 12-Second Short Films
        * Square Enix’s Masters of the Masks: different yet typical
        * Sprint starts pushing out Lollipop OTA for the Spark variant of the Galaxy S4
        * Groupon is holding a fantastic promotion on the Chromecast [Deal]
        * Samsung Galaxy Tab A 8.0 passes through TENAA
        * Fulfill your dream to be a stockbroker in The Firm, now on Android
        * Pointless gyrations: Comparisons that don't make sense

        * After Zuckerberg and Jobs, Madame Tussauds Seeks Another Techie to Preserve in Wax
        * Finanancial Tech Startup SunGard Is Looking for a $10 Billion Sale
        * China Fines Alibaba $129,000 for Pricing Violations
        * Top 10 Lazy Yet Smart Ways to Spring Clean Your Home
        * Turn IKEA Cubbies into a Rustic Apothecary Chest
        * Guide to Manually Install Android 5.0 Lollipop OTA Update on AT&T LG G2 (D800)
        * Today's Best Deals: The Best Headphones, Chromecast, Swimsuits, & More

        * Robin Ventura's explanation of inaction doesn't hold up after chall...
        * Bang-bang play at second looms large in rally
        * After slow start, Shark settles in with strong outing
        * Samardzija battles, but White Sox take walk-off loss
        * Tigers 2, White Sox 1: Duel gone awry
        * Tigers 2, White Sox 1: A duel gone awry
        * Samardzija battles, but White Sox take walk-off loss

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * The Watchdogs: CPS’ $228 million time bomb..
        * Illinois Tobacco Quitline closes amid grant sus.....
        * Chicago Schools Chief Steps Aside Amid Federal .....
        * Governor, others face backlash over disability .....
        * Makanda officials seek to reverse anti-union vote..
        * Rauner appoints hospital board member ahead of .....


        * Illinois House OKs bill to create bobcat hunting season
        * Police: Man shot, killed by Chicago officer
        * Cardinal Francis George, key Catholic orthodoxy voice, dies
        * Attorneys seek dismissal of charges in Islamic State case
        * Funeral for Cardinal George set for Thursday
        * Attorneys seek dismissal of charges in Islamic State case
        * Reaction to the death of Cardinal Francis George
        * Ex-police commander accused of torture decries reparations
        * Lawyer to judge: New NCAA head-injury deal as bad as first
        * Chicago schools chief to take temporary leave amid probe

        * Madigan forms committee to review Rauner budget activities
        * Bill expanding in-car blood-alcohol devices passes House
        * Bobcat hunting bill passes House by slim margin
        * Madigan forms committee to review Rauner budget actitivities
        * State restores part of funding cut from schools
        * Bill banning powdered alcohol cruises through Senate
        * Official state pie? Illinois House approves the pumpkin variety
        * Springfield branch of The Autism Program lays off five workers
        * Illinois medical marijuana coordinator stepping down
        * Advocate Health amends Illinois managed care contract, saving state $5.1 million

        * Boeing accused of unfair labor tactics as union cancels vote
        * Does Rauner know what voters want in budget battle?
        * How many volunteers does it take to put on a gala? 150
        * Ten questions for the executive director of Green City Market
        * CPS chief to step down for now amid federal probe


          * Driver crashes into porch of Elgin home
          * From the scene of downtown shooting: 'It looked so bad'
          * Pope Francis sends condolences for Cardinal George
          * At least 18 shot in city since Friday morning
          * Man, 29, killed in motorcycle crash on Kennedy Expressway
          * Man, 50, fatally stabbed in Humboldt Park restaurant
          * Police: South Shore man, 18, fatally shot after pointing gun at cops
          * Graduate donates $12 million to University of Illinois
          * Feds eye CPS records on education group backed by state's, city's elites
          * 3 charged with murder in 2012 slaying on Dan Ryan


          * Cardinal Francis George helped 'make his people holy'
          * Remembering Chicago's Cardinal Francis George
          * George helped 'make his people holy'
          * Schock donor sues ex-US congressman seeking reimbursement
          * Is that the Loch Michigan Monster lurking off Fullerton Beach?
          * Chicago's retired Cardinal Francis George dies at 78
          * Canine flu outbreak sickens hundreds of dogs in Midwest
          * Rauner's first 100 days: The politics of negotiating a budget
          * 'Right to Try' measure passes Illinois House
          * Chicago council approves $5M settlement in police shooting


          * Madigan forms committee to review Rauner budget activities
          * Heather Eagleton: Illinois should regulate step therapy treatments
          * Bill expanding in-car blood-alcohol devices passes House
          * Bobcat hunting bill passes House by slim margin
          * Our Opinion: Springfield's flood warning signs an investment in safety
          * Mark Denzler and Randy Nehrt: 'Buy North American' bill a bad deal for Illinois
          * Cinda Klickna: Time for Rauner to stop campaigning and start governing
          * Wendy DuBoe and Mark Burton: Don't shortchange Illinois' investments in human services
          * E.J. Dionne: Rubio's fountain of youth
          * State restores part of funding cut from schools


          * Vienna High School superintendent to take over in Cobden
          * Daily Digest 4/18/15
          * Makanda officials seek to reverse anti-union vote
          * Luechtefeld, under deadline, faces dilemma: Move or not run again
          * Garrett Runyon The Roofing Dog 4-18-15
          * SIU chancellor forums to begin next week
          * Paul Ruedi with Ruedi Wealth Management
          * ‘Inflammatory’: St. Elizabeth’s plan to move puts Belleville hospitals at war
          * Debbie Moore with Express Employment Professionals 4-18-15
          * Money matters: The cost of the Carbondale mayoral race


          * French replica of revolutionary frigate sets sail for Boston
          * Caged puppies on car roof trigger dozens of 911 calls
          * Obama's Earth Day trek to Fla. to highlight climate change
          * The Latest: Presidential contenders woo New Hampshire voters
          * Pope asks Europe to do more for migrants flooding into Italy

          * I-90 Corridor STEM Forum focuses on growin...
          * Bustos talks college affordability at Blac...
          * Bost to attend Annual Safety Days Event in...
          * Money race begins for Congress next year
          * Kinzinger reintroduces bipartisan bill to ...
          * Legislators Move Forward With Disaster Dec...
          * Lawmakers: Bill could increase federal fun...
          * House committee passes provision changing ...
          * Congresswoman Duckworth Re-Introduces Legi...
          * Legislative Wrangling Over Data Security a...

          * Durbin Support...

          * Illinois' Kirk says Senate Republicans wil......
          * Obama: "No greater threat" than climate ch......
          * Survey: Most Americans agree death penalty......
          * GOP's Kirk: A nuclear Iran is the greatest......

          * Durbin: Hillary would be an "extraordinary" president
          * Church in North Caolina Vandalized by Gay Activists
          * Foster: Rubio, just another token candidate
          * Kirk delivers GOP weekly address on Iran [video
          * Why won’t teacher union leaders support opt-out?
          * New U of I study shows early academics not necessarily better for kids
          * Illinois Family Institute to host 'Islam in America' with Dr. Erwin Lutzer
          * U.S. Census: Madison, St. Clair counties see reduction in population
          * Democrat operative St. Clair County judge to preside over Rauner-union lawsuit
          * Arn: NIU student group leader condemns veterans, military as "the real terrorists"


          * Illinoisans Receive Governor’s Volunteer Service Award - 6thAnnual Awards Ceremony to be Held on April 20thin Springfield
          * Get Smart About College Planning During Money Smart Week® - College Illinois!® 529 Prepaid Tuition Program offers tips to plan for--and afford--the cost of college
          * Motorcycle Season Revs Up, Riders Urged to “Gear Up-Ride Smart” - New Campaign Touts Staying Safe Through Proper Gear, Education
          * IDOT’s Operation Teen Safe Driving Program Announces 2014-15 Winning Schools - Innovative Program Helps Save Lives, Promotes Safe Driving Habits
          * State of Illinois Takes Action on Medical Cannabis Dispensary Applicants





              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller