SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
A registered voters poll? In October?

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012

* It’s October 11th. Election day is less than four weeks away. Yet the Tribune’s pollster is still surveying registered voters? That’s not great

With national surveys showing the contest between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney tightening, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows the home-state president retains a comfortable advantage in Illinois even though the economy has drained some of the enthusiasm.

Obama scored 55 percent support to 36 percent for Romney, virtually identical to a similar poll in February before Romney had clinched the nomination.

This poll isn’t worth a whole lot unless you factor in the fact that registered voters tend to lean more Democratic than likely voters.

So, with that in mind, here’s a real problem for the Democrats…

…Obama’s slipping support among white suburban women. The voting group, which is considered politically moderate, favored Obama 63 percent to 30 percent eight months ago. Now Obama’s backing has fallen to 50 percent, with 43 percent backing Romney.

That’s not good news for Democrats. White suburban women are the key to statewide races.

* Not that Obama is gonna lose Illinois, but his performance will impact down-ballot candidates. For instance

The poll asked a generic congressional support question. In Chicago and suburban Cook County, large majorities of voters said they would vote for an unspecified Democratic candidate for Congress. Even in the Republican-rich collar counties, 48 percent of voters said they’d side with a Democrat compared with 41 percent for a GOP contender.

That dynamic could help Democrats in three suburban contests: the northwest and west suburban 8th District, where Democrat Tammy Duckworth is challenging freshman Republican Rep. Joe Walsh, the north suburban 10th District where Democrat Brad Schneider is pitted against freshman GOP Rep. Robert Dold, and the far west and southwest suburban 11th District, where former Democratic Rep. Bill Foster is running against veteran Republican Rep. Judy Biggert. Chicago TV is full of millions of dollars in attack ads as interest groups try to sway voters.

But there also are three hard-fought congressional contests Downstate. Outside the Chicago region, 48 percent of voters said they’d side with a generic Republican, compared with 42 percent who preferred a Democrat. That lay of the land could help Republicans retain two seats and pick up a third now held by a retiring Democrat.

Again, adjust those Democratic numbers down and you can see the problem here.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


8 Comments
  1. - Downstater - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 9:16 am:

    Don’t see the problem, if the Republican candidates win. Little bias there, Rich.


  2. - Loop Lady - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 9:17 am:

    Hmmm…maybe the party needs to stop traveling out of State and shore up support in IL…hard to beleive suburban women are ok with Romney’s campaign against women that will deny them reproductive rights, healthcare, and equal pay…


  3. - Cassiopeia - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 9:20 am:

    You are spot on to see the problem with a registered voter as opposed to a likely voter poll. Everybody but the Obama team knows they have a turnout problem that they haven’t been able to crack. The 20-somethings at Obama HQ are so in love with their ability to stream large numbers of emails and social media contacts that they are missing what is happening on the ground.


  4. - wordslinger - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 9:39 am:

    –Don’t see the problem, if the Republican candidates win. Little bias there, Rich.–

    Where’s the bias, other than in your non-comprehending reading?

    Rich wrote: “…here’s a real problem for the Democrats…” and “…that’s not good news for Democrats.”

    See how that works?

    Romney’s on a roll. Nate Silver had Obama with an 86% chance of winning on October 3. He’s down to 68% today.


  5. - Skeeter - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 10:04 am:

    So far, the Dems congressional campaigns in Illinois have been awful. They had a great chance to pick up at least three House seats.

    Right now, they will likely either be even or down one.


  6. - just sayin' - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 10:32 am:

    If the Dems spent even a little money to remind voters here how having an IL native as president helps tremendously in hauling back the pork, you would see tons of Republicans voting for Obama too. It’s all about self interest let’s face it, especially in this state.

    With no reelection to worry about and no nead to keep other states quite as happy, Obama and Durbin and Kirk can ship the pork back in train cars in a 2nd term. Now THAT’S a winning message in IL.


  7. - Logic not emotion - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 10:46 am:

    “With no reelection to worry about and no nead to keep other states quite as happy, Obama and Durbin and Kirk can ship the pork back in train cars in a 2nd term. Now THAT’S a winning message in IL.”

    But possibly a losing message in swing states so why would they risk pushing something that is almost certain to be distributed elsewhere almost immediately when they are confident of Illinois anyway.


  8. - wishbone - Thursday, Oct 11, 12 @ 11:58 am:

    And in the face of these problems for the Democrats, Toni Preckwinkle plays directly into the hands of Republicans and the NRA by reinforcing the “grab your guns” theme. Millions of voters nationally who would naturally vote Democratic if they voted their economic interests are lost to the party because of this anti-gun nonsense which will have absolutely no impact on violence.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* Caption contest!
* More complicated than it already looks
* Caught in a vicious cycle
* How can we miss you if you won't go away?
* Rules bent a bit to move ConAgra headquarters to Chicago
* Trump raises money in Illinois for out of state candidates, while NRSC jumps in for Kirk
* *** UPDATED x1 CPS responds *** CTU says 95 percent voted to strike
* Video gaming could be a huge revenue generator for state, Chicago
* Let's tone it down a little
* Safe Roads backers begin TV blitz
* Kasper speaks
* The transformation is almost complete
* Caps off in comptroller's race
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* [TA Deals] Browse the web privately with Windscribe VPN (95% off)
* Huawei Nexus 7P could run Andromeda
* Get your first look at the Chromecast Ultra
* Alcatel Pixi 4 Plus Power keeps you rolling way too long in developing markets
* AppLovin is selling a majority stake to Orient Hontai Capital for $1.4B
* A smattering of shady Galaxy S8 specs from Weibo, including a 30-megapixel camera
* Drake Debuts 23-Minute Short 'Please Forgive Me' Exclusively on Apple Music

* Rodon's shutdown start captures road series
* 50th big league start is large for stellar Rodon
* Rodon's shutdown start captures road series
* White Sox mourn loss of superstar Fernandez
* Rodon's shutdown start captures road series
* Rays, White Sox set for clash in Windy City
* White Sox mourn loss of superstar Fernandez

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Chicago Teachers Union authorizes strike — again..
* Governor declares Gold Star Family Day - OurQua.....
* Chicago teachers vote to authorize strike in co.....
* How can we miss you if you won't go away? - The.....
* CapitolView | 09/23/16 | WSEC-TV/PBS Springfield..
* The transformation is almost complete - The Cap.....
* Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Th.....


* Illinois man to plead not guilty in wife's 1990 death
* Chicago teachers vote to authorize strike in contract talks
* Some retired educators in suburban Chicago receive bonuses
* Police: Hammond officer shot, injured armed suicidal man
* Man shot near popular Chicago tourist destination dies
* The Latest: U of Illinois plans vigil after deadly shooting
* David Gill appeals to US Supreme Court to get name on ballot
* $3.5M bail set for suspect in kidnapping of Wheaton student
* Joliet woman shot dead, brother and 4-year-old daughter hurt
* Victim of U of Illinois shooting was to start nursing job

* Donation lifts fundraising caps in Illinois comptroller race
* Planning underway locally for Illinois' 200th birthday
* Attack on state senator leads to arrest of murder suspects
* Illinois Supreme Court overturns law allowing 6-member juries
* Local unemployment of 4.6 percent still lowest in state
* Elderly frozen-treat seller gets $380,000 from GoFundMe page
* Creation of Amish history museum in central Illinois underway
* Privately funded Executive Mansion work will follow traditional wage, bidding rules
* 'Memorandum of agreement' outlines restoration rules for Executive Mansion work
* Gov. Rauner uses Facebook Live to announce bicentennial plans

* Charles Walgreen III, pharmacy scion, dies at 80
* Overwhelming vote for CPS strike
* Lands' End CEO leaves company after less than 2 years
* CBOE Holdings to buy Bats Global Markets in $3.2 billion deal
* New flap arises in CTA's $1.3 billion el car deal


* Body found in burning minivan in Little Village identified
* Nick Schmaltz has gone from center-ice seats to center ice
* Delay in forming grand jury to probe possible McDonald cover-up
* Delay in forming grand jury to probe possible McDonald cover-up
* Man charged with fatal weekend shooting at Millennium Park
* Drugmaker Pfizer decides not to break up business
* ‘Chick Flick, The Musical’ Chicago run postponed
* Bloomingdale woman pleads guilty to stealing $19K from PTO
* LAPD investigating rape claim against Derrick Rose: reports
* Pre-debate, Trump over Clinton in Illinois Facebook interactions


* Windsor school 'tasting menu' a big hit with students
* Woman struck, killed while riding bike in Roscoe Village -- 5th death of bicyclist this year
* Rick Bayless' Frontera Foods sold to ConAgra; chef's brand staying in Chicago
* CTU members give OK to strike, union says
* Charges filed in fatal shooting near Millennium Park over weekend
* 6 shot in Houston shooting: Gunman was 'normal, average Joe,' neighbor says
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 9/26/16
* Ghosts haunt naming of Trump fundraiser venue
* Suburban woman pleads guilty to stealing money from school PTO
* Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton finally face to face in high-stakes debate showdown


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Donation lifts fundraising caps in Illinois comptroller race
* Deckle McLain: Rise of bots can't be ignored in economy
* Bernard Schoenburg: Interesting twists in Troemper-Reid circuit judge race
* Statehouse Insider: Do you remember where you were during Rauner's Facebook Live session?
* Compass for Kids supports at-risk children
* Innovate Springfield gives boost to new businesses
* Eric Zarnikow: Aid changes mean students should act now
* Planning underway locally for Illinois' 200th birthday
* Attack on state senator leads to arrest of murder suspects
* Illinois Supreme Court overturns law allowing 6-member juries


* Campustown shootings: 'Senseless'
* Southern Illinois homes open Saturday for Illinois Solar Tour
* PODCAST: Robert Jones takes over as UI chancellor
* Noon update: Field fire threat high, debates, and homework
* FBI stats show increase in murder, violent crime in 2015
* N-G Prep Football Top 10: Week 6
* Fire damages Bloomington home
* UI chancellor on shootings: 'Very, very saddened by it'
* Cubbie Conversation: Sept. 26, 2016
* Baseball fans will enjoy watching the great Vin Scully bow out


* Wheaton man pleads not guilty to sexually abusing child
* End of era for Scale-Tronix, manufacturing of specialty weight scales gets outsourced
* Police seek man who tried to grab woman on Prairie Path near Wheaton
* Downers Grove leaders vying for 81st state House seat
* Springsteen's 'Born to Run' takes readers on riveting ride

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Illinois/Wisconsin briefs - Dubuque Telegr......

* Polls: GOP Closing Fast on Senate Seats - ......

* Illinois home sales, prices make a late-summer surge in August
* GRI Grad Presenters Talk Video
* Downing becomes first Illinois GRI graduate under new program
* Morning Minute: Watch for Illinois August housing data tomorrow
* Chicago Teachers Authorize A Strike
* Opportunity Races: Reelect Rep. McAuliffe and Rep. Jesiel
* Grants Available For Small Business Owners In Uptown & Edgewater
* NUAC-Chicago Protests On Michigan Avenue
* NUAC-Chicago Rallies To Condemn North Korea's Nuclear Testing
* Tony at the Red Line Tap.


* Governor Rauner Proclaims First Gold Star Family Day in Illinois
* IDOT Hiring in Preparation of Winter Weather - Temporary help needed to assist with snow-and-ice removal, public urged to apply
* Illinois Department of Insurance Reminds ‘Land of Lincoln Health’ Customers to Enroll In New Coverage - The deadline for ‘Land of Lincoln Health’ customers to enroll in a new plan is September 30, 2016; Consumers could experience a gap in health care cove
* Governor Rauner Celebrates Illinois’ Hunting Heritage on National Hunting and Fishing Day
* Governor Signs Executive Order Creating New Illinois Bicentennial Commission




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller