SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Some big money just didn’t work

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012

* The Sunlight Foundation took a look at the best and worst returns on investment for outside groups making independent expenditures. Here is their ist of the top spenders’ best ROI…

84% of $15,202,306 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

70% of $14,318,192 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

69% of $34,359,657 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

69% of $6,072,693 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

* The worst…

0% of $10,955,688 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

1% of $103,559,672 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

* Crossroads GPS had a 13% ROI

5% of $31,937,037 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

5% of $23,613,532 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

The NRA’s “Institute for Legislative Action” had a slightly better ROI than its “Political Victory Fund,” at 10.25 percent. The Now Or Never PAC, which played extensively in the Joe Walsh campaign had an ROI of just 14.3 percent. FreedomWorks, which also advertised against Tammy Duckworth, had an ROI of 24.5 percent.

On the other side, Planned Parenthood’s “Action Fund” had a 97.8 percent ROI.

* The 17th Congressional District made it into the top three IE races. The result…

IL-17 (House)
Total outside money: $8,843,981
General candidate fundraising: $4,233,575

Candidate // General election outside support // Candidate fundraising
**winner BUSTOS, CHERI (D) $4,289,889 $1,964,893
SCHILLING, ROBERT T. (R) (Incumbent) $4,543,956 $2,268,682

* The Sun-Times looked at the congressional races by dollars spent per vote. For instance, each vote Walsh won “cost” $70, including IEs. More

Bill Foster, who ousted longtime Republican Judy Biggert in the west suburban 11th Congressional District, won with the biggest margin, according to vote tallies, with 58 percent of the vote. It cost about $30 per vote for Foster, given the $4.3 million spent by or on his behalf and the 139,849 votes cast for him.

Spending on Biggert’s side exceeded $6.3 million. Ending up with 101,002 ballots cast for her, it averages out to $62 a vote.

Walsh’s challenger, Tammy Duckworth, was a relatively good investment. Duckworth’s totals meant $39 a vote with $4.7 million in spending and 120,774 votes. […]

The closest congressional race of the three was in the 10th Congressional District, where a combination of campaign and outside money added up to $7.5 million for Republican Bob Dold. Dold narrowly lost to challenger Brad Schneider, earning 128,129 votes. That comes out to about $58 per vote for Dold.

By comparison, about $3.9 million went in on Schneider’s side, and he tallied 130,676. That’s about $29 per vote.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - UISer - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:24 am:

    0% of $10,955,688 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.”

    This just made my day. Thanks Sunlight Foundation!

  2. - wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:36 am:

    Karl Rove has the best gig in America. I wonder how many points he took on the buys, for those results?

  3. - Loop Lady - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:38 am:

    NRA loses big! Thank you Rich for this delightful factoid. Can we run Karl Rove out of the country on a rail now? Karl who?

  4. - 312 - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:42 am:

    I want to go work for American Crossroads so I can be completely wrong with every decision I make, but still make a boatload of money for it! Where do I sign???

  5. - Empty Chair - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:54 am:

    It’s unfair to blame the funders, honestly. There’s a HUGE gap in talent between Democratic political consultants and republican ones. Karl Rove rarely makes ads any more, he is now largely a fundraiser and a numbers guy. He may be involved with buys, but the extent to which his groups are making huge buys nationally, I doubt he saw every ad.

    The reality is Democratic ad makers are more well versed in local polling and know what voters will be receptive to. Republican operatives are increasingly just making funny looking ads or ones that they think will win them Pollies. The targeting and effectiveness of Dem consultants is going to be overlooked by the financial warehouses who were paying them, but they deserve some credit as well.

  6. - Boone Logan Square - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:01 am:

    *Insert joke about NRA’s poor aim here.*

    Anyone talk to Daddy Ricketts this week? Bet Rahm looks forward to the next round of haggling over Wrigley Field.

  7. - Bemused - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:09 am:

    Nice to see Karl Rove and the NRA on the short side of things. My problem is I suspect those who gave them the money to throw around will continue to do so.

  8. - wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    From NYT:

    –Joe Ricketts, the owner of the Chicago Cubs, spent close to $13 million to bankroll a super PAC attacking Mr. Obama over federal spending.–

    Something to keep in mind when they make another run for taxpayer funding for Wrigley. Apparently, he has some disposable income laying around, and is down on government spending.

  9. - Arthur Andersen - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    Regardless of what (tinfoil) hat Rove might be wearing, it’s no wonder that he almost vapor locked on Fox Election Night when they called it for Barack. Poor Megyn “with a Y” Kelly had to walk all the way back to Nerd Central in her C*M pumps to make sure the pollies got it right. Not their finest hour.

  10. - amalia - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:49 am:

    NRA, you just made my day!!!!!

  11. - lake county democrat - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:54 am:

    Sheldon Adelson went 0-for-6. As I keep harping on, gerrymandering is a bigger attack on voters than campaign finance issues. I’m happy that Walsh and Dold lost, but I know that for every Dem-gerrymandering Mike Madigan there’s 1.5 GOP-gerrymandering governors in other states like Texas.

  12. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:54 am:

    I think the bottom line is that while both sides have lots of money, most of the groups on the winning side were also able to bring in people. SEIU is a perfect example of that, you see them knocking on doors and making calls. Crossroads, not so much.

  13. - The Captain - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 11:08 am:

    Crossroads got a 1% return on $103 million? No words.

    There’s not a lot of upside to being the one to say this but … a lot of this overreaction is just Dems had a really good night and Republicans didn’t. I’m not sure that Republican operatives could have done a whole lot different that would have changed the outcome. In 2010 there was nothing worse than dealing with the *geniuses* born in 2008 who came to believe that elections are won with unlimited money, volunteers and voter enthusiasm, an environment that would apparently live forever. They were unbearable idiots. I’m guessing Tuesday spawned a new generation of unbearable idiot operatives on the Dem side.

  14. - ZC - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 11:08 am:

    I’ve always said that the first step to reforming money in politics was to beat these outside spending groups silly.

    At the end of the day laws only go so far, you have to affect incentives. If the deep pockets get convinced that they’re pigeons and all they’re doing is buying Rove summer houses, then we’ll see some decline in the amount of money spent. 2012 was a good start in that regard.

  15. - PublicServant - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 11:24 am:

    Plan B is just buy the Dems, guys…

  16. - Eileen left - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 11:46 am:

    Rich guys don’t walk precincts working men and women do. Rich guys don’t volunteer to work in campaigns working men and women do. It just goes to show you that “money can’t buy you love”.

  17. - D.P. Gumby - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 4:51 pm:

    The real ROI is in all the states where Repubs controlled state legislatures, like Indiana w/a Repub veto proof and Wisc Repub winning back State Sen. Repub now control more Govs. than in history. This will have far more impact for future.

  18. - mark walker - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 4:57 pm:

    The star of election night IMO was Karl Rove, walking around with a little white board, explaining why Nate Silver and most pollsters, just didn’t understand Republican voters.

    So Karl the “political genius” blew millions and millions of his clients’ money, and got paid by Fox News.

    Rove, Bachman, Walsh, Cain, and Santorum should all fade away.

    The Edelmans, Trumps, Kochs and Bradleys of the world will never admit personal error, and will keep trying to buy us.

  19. - mcb - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 6:13 pm:

    There’s a big issue with the ROI calculations. No matter who would’ve won, the numbers look the same, just flipped. Doesn’t mean bad buys. They don’t look at the total a candidate got. So 1 PAC spends on one losing candidate, maybe a total of 1 million. Then 10 PAC’s could’ve spent 1 billion on winners. The fact they went together could’ve altered election results. But despite the much bigger dollars, the winner looks like the better buy, despite costing 1000 times as much. A real study would be more like the sun times, dollars per votes. But also need to look at the percentage of the campaign fund made up by the group. Just because you spend a million on one candidate, it could only be 2 or 3 percent of what they got.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Tribune to put tower up for sale
* They say that like it's a bad thing
* Exelon Just Received A $1.7 Billion Rate Increase Through The Market-Based Capacity Auction
* Point taken. However...
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Byrd-Bennett indicted by the feds
* Yikes, man
* The Credit Union Difference
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Kotowski bash, event list
* Question of the day
* Dimas: "There's a chance we will have to introduce the FY17 budget before we have an FY16 budget"
* Unclear on the concept
* Rhetoric vs. reality
* Supremes snub Illinois Policy Institute appeal
* Aren't we forgetting something?
* True, but...
* Things are tense all over
* Unclear on the concept
* Rep. Leitch won't run again
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a Golar replacement update from AlderTrack
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...







Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* Facebook introduces ‘Reactions’ to give users more ways to share their reaction to a post
* Video Review: iBattz's Mojo Refuel Invictus Case for iPhone 6s Plus Packs a Lot of Power, But Has Flaws
* Swiftkey Neural Alpha touted as world’s first neural network keyboard
* Toshiba launches sensor for iris scanning, security and authentication
* Next-gen wireless charging system uses ultrasound to power your phone
* Android x86 has a Lollipop release candidate, good enough to run your PC
* Facebook Messenger For Apple Watch Officially Launches

* Foot issue to sideline White Sox prospect Hawkins
* After second base, it was no-go White Sox
* Scouting, player development key for White Sox
* Arbitration-eligible White Sox won't put dent in payroll
* Hawk Harrelson's reduced schedule creates opportunity for White Sox...
* Holliday, Ventura connection goes way back
* 2015 in 3 words: Sale, Abreu, inconsistency


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without .....
* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without .....
* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without .....
* Democrats: Illinois could go broke without budg.....
* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without .....
* Their View: Environment suffers because of Raun.....
* Gov. Rauner talks innovation at CIE celebration.....
* Rauner, leading Democrats try to define each ot.....

* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without state budget
* Tribune Media considering sale of landmarked headquarters
* EPA pushes for 'smart thermostats' as way to limit pollution
* Chicago cab driver group calls for 24-hour strike
* Indiana man chose as 1st national Pig Farmer of Year
* 2 Illinois congressmen heading to Cuba on Sunday for ag trip
* EXCHANGE: Sudzy Bath and Biscuits in Anna caters to canines
* Group says interest in Chicago Halloween parade growing
* Impact of Chicago Marathon felt from now to Sunday event
* Chicago Democrats to meet to fill seat of late Rep. Golar

* The Papers of Abraham Lincoln project still in jeopardy; memo paints discouraging picture
* Democrats say Rauner 'needs to get serious' on budget
* Democrats: Illinois could go broke without budget
* Gov. Rauner ends quarter with $19M in campaign fund
* Prosecutors say former Congressman Aaron Schock is 'grandstanding'
* State Rep. David Leitch won't seek re-election
* Rauner to Democrats: 'Time's up' in budget impasse
* Illinois panel OKs medical marijuana for 8 health conditions
* State Sen. McCarter to challenge Shimkus in Congressional primary
* Rauner increasing pressure on Democrats for budget deal

* O'Hare bonds avoid Chicago stain in city's biggest offering ever
* Tribune Media seeks to sell Trib Tower
* Trib Tower for sale
* A champion of women's issues who loves board games
* Cafe Spiaggia got a makeover. Did it need one?

* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without state budget
* Aldermen complain about ‘menu’ price hikes
* Charges come at rocky time for CPS
* Patrick Kane feels ‘really good’ as he hits the road
* Viktor Svedberg to get his chance on blue line
* Aldermen vent frustrations about city’s losing battle against homelessness
* Blackhawks mailbag: Crawford, Teravainen, Dano and more
* Ex-CPS CEO Barbara Byrd-Bennett, 4 others charged in contract scheme
* The Rangers thought the Blackhawks celebrated too much before their game
* Two U.S. reps from Illinois plan Cuba trip

* Smart thermostat program could cut energy bills
* Homecoming off this weekend due to teachers strike in McHenry H.S. district
* Rauner, leading Democrats try to define each other's political agenda
* Chicago State University names new president
* Boy, 15, killed, at least 3 people hurt in shootings
* Ousted Orthodox bishop sues church leaders
* New judge to be assigned to second Soderquist case
* Indiana University fraternity charter revoked over 'highly offensive' video
* Girl, 16, went missing 2 weeks ago near Washington Park
* Hobart officer terminated after hearing

* The Papers of Abraham Lincoln project still in jeopardy; memo paints discouraging picture
* Democrats say Rauner 'needs to get serious' on budget
* Bernard Schoenburg: Supreme Court refuses to hear Illinois Policy Institute appeal over press access at Statehouse
* Gov. Rauner ends quarter with $19M in campaign fund
* Prosecutors say former Congressman Aaron Schock is 'grandstanding'
* State Rep. David Leitch won't seek re-election
* George Will: Impeach the IRS director
* Eugene Robinson: Obama is right to be cautious on Syria
* Elizabeth Austin: 'Lawsuit climate' no obstacle to business success
* Rauner to Democrats: 'Time's up' in budget impasse

* 40 Under 40 Awards Luncheon
* Forty Under 40 Awards Luncheon
* In Oregon visit, Obama will find grief but also resentment
* Prudhomme, Louisiana chef who popularized Cajun food, dies
* PODCAST: Club Krannert with Bridget Lee-Calfas
* Illinois comptroller talks budget impasse
* UI Solar Farm
* Shoefarmer Tonight!
* Oct. 12 Bob Asmussen Chat
* 10-08-15 News-Gazette Prep Sports Podcast

* Deer Park Town Center, Daily Herald team for breast cancer fundraiser
* Tribune Media considering sale of landmarked headquarters
* 'There is no way,' former Oregon cop says regarding Elgin drug arrest
* First deer hunt coming to Illinois Beach State Park
* Medical marijuana dispensary opening next month in Buffalo Grove

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Senators Durbin, Franken, King Introduce L......
* Sens. Franken and Durbin propose free text......
* Senators bring bill to lower textbook pric......
* Dems push bill to make college textbooks c......

* Senator Kirk Supports Funding to Boost Eco......
* Sen. Kirk Introduces Bill to Fix Enlistmen......
* POLITICO Illinois Playbook: RAUNER-MADIGAN......
* New GOP Opponent Challenges Kirk in Senate......
* New GOP Opponent Challenges Kirk in Senate......

* Rauner points to 70 Illinois Democrats supported collective bargaining changes
* Rauner points to 70 Illinois Democrats that supported collective bargaining changes
* Dixon police draw criticism over "Gotcha" crime prevention program
* Where's Weyermuller? At Wheeling Township GOP Women's 2015 Luncheon
* Police Chief McCarthy says "There's no magic solution" to ending Chicago violence
* REbarcamp gives Illinois REALTORS 10 ways to learn more from each other
* Peoria's Leitch Won't Seek Re-Election
* Get the scoop on Crosby award in Illinois REALTOR®
* Illinois Department Of Human Services Hearing On CCAP Changes
* Barneys Employees In Chicago Push To Unionize, Receive Aldermanic Support (VIDEO)

* Board’s New Rules Will Reduce Risk of Tire Fires and Disease-Carrying Mosquitos
* Illinois Hosts Inaugural Interstate Medical Licensure Compact - Aims to increase health care access through multi-state physician licensure program
* IEMA Announces Elgin Community College Attains ‘Ready to Respond Campus’ Designation - Elgin one of five Illinois campuses to receive distinction
* New Mortgage Loan Interface Increases Efficiency, Compliance
* State Fire Marshal Ushers In Fire Prevention Week - “Hear the Beep Where You Sleep!”

    Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller