SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Some big money just didn’t work

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012

* The Sunlight Foundation took a look at the best and worst returns on investment for outside groups making independent expenditures. Here is their ist of the top spenders’ best ROI…

84% of $15,202,306 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

70% of $14,318,192 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

69% of $34,359,657 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

69% of $6,072,693 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

* The worst…

0% of $10,955,688 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

1% of $103,559,672 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

* Crossroads GPS had a 13% ROI

5% of $31,937,037 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

5% of $23,613,532 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

The NRA’s “Institute for Legislative Action” had a slightly better ROI than its “Political Victory Fund,” at 10.25 percent. The Now Or Never PAC, which played extensively in the Joe Walsh campaign had an ROI of just 14.3 percent. FreedomWorks, which also advertised against Tammy Duckworth, had an ROI of 24.5 percent.

On the other side, Planned Parenthood’s “Action Fund” had a 97.8 percent ROI.

* The 17th Congressional District made it into the top three IE races. The result…

IL-17 (House)
Total outside money: $8,843,981
General candidate fundraising: $4,233,575

Candidate // General election outside support // Candidate fundraising
**winner BUSTOS, CHERI (D) $4,289,889 $1,964,893
SCHILLING, ROBERT T. (R) (Incumbent) $4,543,956 $2,268,682

* The Sun-Times looked at the congressional races by dollars spent per vote. For instance, each vote Walsh won “cost” $70, including IEs. More

Bill Foster, who ousted longtime Republican Judy Biggert in the west suburban 11th Congressional District, won with the biggest margin, according to vote tallies, with 58 percent of the vote. It cost about $30 per vote for Foster, given the $4.3 million spent by or on his behalf and the 139,849 votes cast for him.

Spending on Biggert’s side exceeded $6.3 million. Ending up with 101,002 ballots cast for her, it averages out to $62 a vote.

Walsh’s challenger, Tammy Duckworth, was a relatively good investment. Duckworth’s totals meant $39 a vote with $4.7 million in spending and 120,774 votes. […]

The closest congressional race of the three was in the 10th Congressional District, where a combination of campaign and outside money added up to $7.5 million for Republican Bob Dold. Dold narrowly lost to challenger Brad Schneider, earning 128,129 votes. That comes out to about $58 per vote for Dold.

By comparison, about $3.9 million went in on Schneider’s side, and he tallied 130,676. That’s about $29 per vote.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - UISer - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:24 am:

    0% of $10,955,688 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.”

    This just made my day. Thanks Sunlight Foundation!

  2. - wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:36 am:

    Karl Rove has the best gig in America. I wonder how many points he took on the buys, for those results?

  3. - Loop Lady - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:38 am:

    NRA loses big! Thank you Rich for this delightful factoid. Can we run Karl Rove out of the country on a rail now? Karl who?

  4. - 312 - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:42 am:

    I want to go work for American Crossroads so I can be completely wrong with every decision I make, but still make a boatload of money for it! Where do I sign???

  5. - Empty Chair - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 9:54 am:

    It’s unfair to blame the funders, honestly. There’s a HUGE gap in talent between Democratic political consultants and republican ones. Karl Rove rarely makes ads any more, he is now largely a fundraiser and a numbers guy. He may be involved with buys, but the extent to which his groups are making huge buys nationally, I doubt he saw every ad.

    The reality is Democratic ad makers are more well versed in local polling and know what voters will be receptive to. Republican operatives are increasingly just making funny looking ads or ones that they think will win them Pollies. The targeting and effectiveness of Dem consultants is going to be overlooked by the financial warehouses who were paying them, but they deserve some credit as well.

  6. - Boone Logan Square - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:01 am:

    *Insert joke about NRA’s poor aim here.*

    Anyone talk to Daddy Ricketts this week? Bet Rahm looks forward to the next round of haggling over Wrigley Field.

  7. - Bemused - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:09 am:

    Nice to see Karl Rove and the NRA on the short side of things. My problem is I suspect those who gave them the money to throw around will continue to do so.

  8. - wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    From NYT:

    –Joe Ricketts, the owner of the Chicago Cubs, spent close to $13 million to bankroll a super PAC attacking Mr. Obama over federal spending.–

    Something to keep in mind when they make another run for taxpayer funding for Wrigley. Apparently, he has some disposable income laying around, and is down on government spending.

  9. - Arthur Andersen - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    Regardless of what (tinfoil) hat Rove might be wearing, it’s no wonder that he almost vapor locked on Fox Election Night when they called it for Barack. Poor Megyn “with a Y” Kelly had to walk all the way back to Nerd Central in her C*M pumps to make sure the pollies got it right. Not their finest hour.

  10. - amalia - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:49 am:

    NRA, you just made my day!!!!!

  11. - lake county democrat - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:54 am:

    Sheldon Adelson went 0-for-6. As I keep harping on, gerrymandering is a bigger attack on voters than campaign finance issues. I’m happy that Walsh and Dold lost, but I know that for every Dem-gerrymandering Mike Madigan there’s 1.5 GOP-gerrymandering governors in other states like Texas.

  12. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 10:54 am:

    I think the bottom line is that while both sides have lots of money, most of the groups on the winning side were also able to bring in people. SEIU is a perfect example of that, you see them knocking on doors and making calls. Crossroads, not so much.

  13. - The Captain - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 11:08 am:

    Crossroads got a 1% return on $103 million? No words.

    There’s not a lot of upside to being the one to say this but … a lot of this overreaction is just Dems had a really good night and Republicans didn’t. I’m not sure that Republican operatives could have done a whole lot different that would have changed the outcome. In 2010 there was nothing worse than dealing with the *geniuses* born in 2008 who came to believe that elections are won with unlimited money, volunteers and voter enthusiasm, an environment that would apparently live forever. They were unbearable idiots. I’m guessing Tuesday spawned a new generation of unbearable idiot operatives on the Dem side.

  14. - ZC - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 11:08 am:

    I’ve always said that the first step to reforming money in politics was to beat these outside spending groups silly.

    At the end of the day laws only go so far, you have to affect incentives. If the deep pockets get convinced that they’re pigeons and all they’re doing is buying Rove summer houses, then we’ll see some decline in the amount of money spent. 2012 was a good start in that regard.

  15. - PublicServant - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 11:24 am:

    Plan B is just buy the Dems, guys…

  16. - Eileen left - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 11:46 am:

    Rich guys don’t walk precincts working men and women do. Rich guys don’t volunteer to work in campaigns working men and women do. It just goes to show you that “money can’t buy you love”.

  17. - D.P. Gumby - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 4:51 pm:

    The real ROI is in all the states where Repubs controlled state legislatures, like Indiana w/a Repub veto proof and Wisc Repub winning back State Sen. Repub now control more Govs. than in history. This will have far more impact for future.

  18. - mark walker - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 4:57 pm:

    The star of election night IMO was Karl Rove, walking around with a little white board, explaining why Nate Silver and most pollsters, just didn’t understand Republican voters.

    So Karl the “political genius” blew millions and millions of his clients’ money, and got paid by Fox News.

    Rove, Bachman, Walsh, Cain, and Santorum should all fade away.

    The Edelmans, Trumps, Kochs and Bradleys of the world will never admit personal error, and will keep trying to buy us.

  19. - mcb - Thursday, Nov 8, 12 @ 6:13 pm:

    There’s a big issue with the ROI calculations. No matter who would’ve won, the numbers look the same, just flipped. Doesn’t mean bad buys. They don’t look at the total a candidate got. So 1 PAC spends on one losing candidate, maybe a total of 1 million. Then 10 PAC’s could’ve spent 1 billion on winners. The fact they went together could’ve altered election results. But despite the much bigger dollars, the winner looks like the better buy, despite costing 1000 times as much. A real study would be more like the sun times, dollars per votes. But also need to look at the percentage of the campaign fund made up by the group. Just because you spend a million on one candidate, it could only be 2 or 3 percent of what they got.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Hope is not a plan
* Forewarned is forearmed
* *** LIVE COVERAGE *** Gov. Rauner Chicago speech
* McCarter announces
* Claypool's alleged weakness: Ignorance
* The Credit Union Difference
* Geneseo threatens to cut off state utilities
* Our rapidly fraying social infrastructure
* Rate Uber's new radio ad
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...







Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* Sony sets 2016 deadline for turning around its smartphone sales
* Google is working on a way to speed up mobile websites
* HTC One M9 goes pink for breast cancer awareness campaign
* What could have improved the Nexus 5X?
* [TA Deals] Pick up a Python Programming Pro course bundle at 84% off
* Synaptics launches new touch controller solution, calls it ClearForce
* Google Street View gets immersive with new Cardboard support

* Scouting, player development key for White Sox
* Arbitration-eligible White Sox won't put dent in payroll
* Hawk Harrelson's reduced schedule creates opportunity for White Sox...
* Holliday, Ventura connection goes way back
* 2015 in 3 words: Sale, Abreu, inconsistency
* Hawk cutting '16 broadcast schedule
* Podcast: Shifting the target


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* Illinois panel OKs medical marijuana for pain c.....
* Illinois panel OKs medical marijuana for pain c.....
* Governor Rauner plans to increase pressure on D.....
* Illinois panel OKs medical marijuana for pain c.....
* Illinois expert panel approves 4 pain condition.....
* Illinois Panel Oks Medical Marijuana For Pain C.....
* Illinois panel OKs medical marijuana for pain c.....

* Illinois panel OKs marijuana for pain, other conditions
* US Steel may temporarily idle plant in southern Illinois
* Rauner increasing pressure on Democrats for budget deal
* Fox Lake officer's death investigation cost tops $300,000
* Illinois corn, soybean harvests at the halfway mark
* Fire strikes 92-year-old church on Chicago's South Side
* Watseka woman is go-to cat mom for animal rescue
* Stevenson family exhibit on hold due to Illinois budget feud
* Rockford losing its air connection to New York City area
* Cook County to demolish 7 buildings on Oak Forest campus

* Illinois panel OKs medical marijuana for pain conditions
* Rauner increasing pressure on Democrats for budget deal
* Providers, clients bash Rauner administration changes to day care eligibility
* Illinois stops paying local health clinics for STD testing
* Panel recommends Rep. Mautino for Illinois auditor general
* Chancellor Koch: Budget pressures growing for UIS, other schools
* Illinois to implement new ratings for schools, districts
* Budget impasse cuts services for domestic abuse victims

* getting upgrades
* Buffett builds rail superhighway to grab truck freight
* AB InBev makes a third offer for SABMiller
* SABMiller snubs AB InBev's third offer
* Art Institute President Douglas Druick is retiring

* Antti Raanta: ‘I know I was part of the team’
* Blackhawks ready to raise the banner, turn the page
* Illinois panel OKs medical marijuana for pain conditions
* Regular season carries more weight than ever for Blackhawks
* Meet the newest Blackhawks
* Patrick Kane remains the Blackhawks’ biggest X-factor
* NHL season preview and predictions
* Mihalopoulos: Ald. Burns could wind up feeling the heat
* ‘I’m not done,’ Karen Lewis says a year after cancer diagnosis
* McCarthy ‘extremely disrespectful’ to council, one alderman tells him

* Fire officials: Renovation work touched off extra-alarm fire in century-old church
* Man charged in Lawndale double shooting that left 2 dead
* Plano man killed in Yorkville crash
* One dead, one injured in head-on crash
* State panel recommends pain, osteoarthritis for medical pot list
* Bullet narrowly misses Aurora girl sitting in living room
* Ken Griffin and wife Anne Dias Griffin settle divorce case
* Elgin Islamic leader now accused of sexual abuse of minor: police
* Chicago mother wages 2-year fight against child neglect citation
* Police on scene of barricade situation in Gage Park neighborhood

* Illinois panel OKs medical marijuana for pain conditions
* Rauner increasing pressure on Democrats for budget deal
* Providers, clients bash Rauner administration changes to day care eligibility
* Illinois stops paying local health clinics for STD testing
* Panel recommends Rep. Mautino for Illinois auditor general
* Michael Gerson: Presidential tantrums won't end gun violence
* E.J. Dionne: The conservative evasion on guns
* Michael Solberg and Amy Ayala: System works against the mentally ill in Illinois' prisons, jails
* Esther Cepeda: Spare the talk of an 'Asian invasion'
* Kathleen Parker: The GOP’s (New) McCarthyism

* IHSA Girls' Golf Regional
* Tim Finke switching AAU programs
* 10-07-15 Jim Turpin with Jim Nowlan
* 10-07-15 Penny for Your Thoughts
* Grand opening for Field & Stream/Dick's Sporting Goods on Thursday
* TODAY'S CHAT: Who's next?
* State legislator formally announces campaign against Shimkus
* No Ordinary Joe, Cubs' Maddon might be MLB's best skipper
* Ex-Illinois official back to prison after name change
* Favorable fall weather pattern should continue

* Wauconda school shows Cubs support
* Sleep Out Saturday a show of support for 'invisible homeless'
* Owner of human tissue donation firm pleads guilty in Arizona
* 'We came through the crisis untouched and didn't have to take a dollar of government money'
* Benedictine event addresses role of corporations in curbing climate change

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Finally, a bipartisan bill in Congress - L......

* La Grange Park senior meets president, get......

* We drove to McHenry this Sunday to support striking teachers in District 156.
* McHenry board backs down on health insurance.
* Oregon Shooter's Father Blames Guns, Not Son, For Umpqua Murders
* Dupes: How America’s Adversaries Have Manipulated Progressives for a Century
* Aurora GOP raps Senator Kirk's knuckles ... again
* Daleiden allowed to send unedited Planned Parenthood video footage to Congress
* McCarter launches primary challenge in 15th CD
* UPDATE x1: McCarter launches primary challenge in 15th CD
* Taiwan in the South China Sea
* Religious groups demand Governor Rauner cut Planned Parenthood state funding

* IEMA Announces Elgin Community College Attains ‘Ready to Respond Campus’ Designation - Elgin one of five Illinois campuses to receive distinction
* New Mortgage Loan Interface Increases Efficiency, Compliance
* State Fire Marshal Ushers In Fire Prevention Week - “Hear the Beep Where You Sleep!”
* October Is Illinois College Application Month! - Over 130 High Schools Will Hold Events to Help Students Get to College
* Illinois Takes Part in Nationwide Community Banking Study, Findings Announced

    Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller