I didn’t say he was always 100% right, just that he understands it better than anyone else.

What state contribution are they foreseeing between now and 2029, or 2040? What employee contributions are they assuming? My inclination is that if they had hard numbers, based on reasonable assumptions, we would already be having those numbers forced at us, since they would be very powerful. When you are asked a reasonable question in these circumstances and you refuse to answer it, one may reasonably conclude that the answer would be to your disadvantage. Let’s see some numbers.

Steve –

My pension is a private one. And we use to use a 7.5% rate of return despite a 30 year historical average of over 10%. But with the way the stock market is acting, we have dropped ours to 5.5 % anticipated ROI. due to the timing of the end of our fiscal year for our pension, we got a 4.5% ROI last year. But we were 3 ppints below what we needed and so the differance has to come out of the reserves.

there are also new mortalitiy tables that are changing our calculations for reserves. Putting even more pressure on things. I think that if the public pension plans assumed a REAL rate of return somewher in the 5 - 5.5% area and used the mortality tables that ERISA plans or private plans need to. you could tack on another 30% tot he unfunded liablity.

I just don’t see the reality in their projections based upon what my $3 Billion plan has had to do to stay on the positive side of things. and for the record, we are funded at 80%.

But this involved, reducing our multiplier from 3.6 to 1 over several years, 4 reductions if memory serves me right. contrubutions which we don;t get credit for that go into building up the reserves.

changing our retiree medical plans

changing our assumed ROI

revising mortality tables (to the detriment) of the fund.

My suggestion is to look to the private sector. That is where the comparision needs to take place

Then it also shot down the AZ legislatures attempt to reduce COLAs.

“Maricopa County Superior Court judge has ruled that the state Legislature violated the state Constitution and effectively breached a contract when it passed a bill overhauling the state’s pension system.

At issue was whether judges and elected officials were entitled to continued annual cost-of-living increases. A bill passed last year stopped the increases, which went as high as 4 percent per year, to protect the finances of the state pension fund.

Several retired judges and elected officials brought suit against the state’s Elected Officials’ Retirement Plan, pointing out that the state Constitution explicitly states that “public retirement benefits shall not be diminished or impaired.” Retired Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Kenneth Fields was named as lead plaintiff in the lawsuit.

Superior Court Judge John Buttrick found in Fields’ favor late last week”

from: http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/2012/05/29/20120529maricopa-judge-pension-raises.html?nclick_check=1#ixzz1wMtPh84v

How do you, “intrinsically,” arrive at that conclusion?

The capital markets can’t get enough of public paper (or private junk paper, for that matter), because they pay when nothing else does.

And the public paper is incredibly safe, as any fool can see.

Were you all born yesterday, watching Meredith Whitney (betting the other way) on “60 Minutes?”

I hope you didn’t put any money down on Dick Morris and George Wills’ election predictions (”Minnesota, for Romney, because the evangelicals will come out for the gay marriage ban).”

There’s a history you can track here. “Gut” feelings mean oogots.

As he has demonstrated previously, Madiar is one of the few people, and possibly the only person, in the State who really understands the entire pension issue and the total implications of any proposed changes.

Indeed he was, I’m sure he did, and I hope he and his reflect.

Psst, Ty, the folks aren’t buying that neighbor-as-parasite stuff, anymore.

Hope springs eternal, and I personally hope that the Yankees’ resounding victory last week will convince those that traffic in willful ignorance and irrational fear to listen to the better angels of their nature and stop demonizing their neighbors for the short con.

If not, they’d better pack a lunch, because it will be an all-day job.

What state contribution are they foreseeing between now and 2029, or 2040? What employee contributions are they assuming? My inclination is that if they had hard numbers, based on reasonable assumptions, we would already be having those numbers forced at us, since they would be very powerful. When you are asked a reasonable question in these circumstances and you refuse to answer it, one may reasonably conclude that the answer would be to your disadvantage. Let’s see some numbers.

That is the beginning, middle and end of everything anyone needs to know about the pension issue. Add some hysterical handwringing to the mix from both of them and that’s about it.

Love that rich egomaniac money.