SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Today’s graph

Friday, Nov 16, 2012

* Illinois gubernatorial and presidential election results, excluding independent and third-party candidates. Click for a larger image

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


20 Comments
  1. - Cassiopeia - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:09 pm:

    20 years ago was the last time the Democrats had very large majorities in the General Assembly. Two years later they lost both chambers and every statewide office.

    Can’t help but wonder if or when they don’t resolve the fiscal problems both nationally or in Illinois if history will repeat itself.


  2. - S.Dolopoulos - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:09 pm:

    One thing jumps out: While Dems tend to blow out the GOP in Presidential years, the Dem. margins in races for Gov. are significantly smaller.

    That chart is the best cause for GOP hope in 2014 seen since election day.


  3. - NIref - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:18 pm:

    The two races are far to different to ascertain any real relationship, especially considering 2006 Gov race, and the two home-state presidential elections.

    It would probably be better if we pulled state-wide voting in either Congressional or Assembly races.


  4. - 47th Ward - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:24 pm:

    That red line peaking in 1994 brings back memories of the worst election night I’ve ever had. I was wrapping up the boiler room operation for my legislative race until about 11pm. We lost a close race for an open seat, then I turned on the TV to see results from other races around the country and the news was devastating.

    Speaker Foley lost his seat. We lost the US House. The US Senate. The Illinois House/Senate. The Governor’s race was a blow out, Rostenkowski lost. It was a bloodbath across Illinois and across the country.

    That was a wave election fueled in part by anti-Clinton sentiment and the effective Contract with America branding of Newt Gingrich. In Illinois, Edgar pummelled Netsch for her income tax hike (only to propose that very idea later in his administration).

    The good news was that the sweep wiped out some Democrats that were past their prime and opened opportunities for new candidates to emerge. We created a deeper bench and Madigan worked tirelessly to recruit and support new candidates to overcome the Daniels map.

    If the GOP thinks 2012 was bad for them, it was nothing compared to 1994 for us. We learned some important lessons in the aftermath of that year, as these numbers show. Will the GOP learn anything from 2012?


  5. - wordslinger - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:24 pm:

    The Edgar spike in 1994 from the Bush vote in 1992 is remarkable, as is the subsequent crash of the Dole vote in 1996.

    I’m starting to think Illinois voters were buying what Edgar was selling.

    What should be most alarming to the Illinois GOP, however, is that since 1994, the GOP candidate for either governor or president has only broken the 50% mark once — that being George Ryan at 51% in 1998.

    Some changes would seem to be in order.


  6. - walkinfool - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:45 pm:

    I believe that the ILGOP can easily win the Gov seat this time with the right candidate (representing their own majority values), and the right campaign professionals.

    They don’t have any unfixable problems.


  7. - wordslinger - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:47 pm:

    47, that’s some good stuff. And it brings up another point.

    1994 national GOP wave vote in Illinois: 63.9%

    2010 national GOP wave vote in Illinois: 45.9%

    In these days of GOP reflection, I’d encourage them to determine who the voters are that comprise that 18-point difference, why they left and how to get them back.


  8. - Republicans amaze me ! - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:48 pm:

    The only thing more inept than national republicans are Illinois republicans. Even if Obama’s number are in the tank, they will nominate a right wing ideologue for governor. Madigan is smart enough to keep his constituency together and let the republicans ensure his keeping the middle with their dreams of the 1950’s …


  9. - Jimmie Logan - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:54 pm:

    Not gonna happen, Cassie. You refer to 1992-1994. The GA was operating under a GOP-drawn map. Pate had already gained control of the Senate after 1992. The national GOP wave of 1994 took care of the rest of the seat loss the House Dems had already experienced in 1992 under the new map. Netsch, Quinn, and Burris giving up their statewide seats to run for another office probably didn’t help. Not saying they would have prevailed in re-elect, but made the race to replace with GOP much easier. You’re comparing apples to oranges.

    Word, I’d also suggest it was not simply what Edgar was selling, but that huge GOP wave in 1994 certainly didn’t hurt.


  10. - Pot calling kettle - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 12:54 pm:

    Illinois Democrats have always been willing to consider a Republican, but the Republican has to be a moderate the Dems think they can work with. Edgar and Ryan certainly fit that bill.


  11. - wordslinger - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 1:00 pm:

    Jimmie, I’m sure you’re right about 1994 and the wave.

    Which makes the Illinois GOP’s under-performance in the 2010 wave (with the added Blago factor fresh in the memories of the voters) that more revealing.


  12. - Arthur Andersen - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 1:06 pm:

    Rauner ‘14!

    Not.


  13. - Suburbs - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 1:15 pm:

    A glass half full perspective…there was a 9 point swing toward the GOP from ‘08 to ‘12.


  14. - My opinion - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 1:31 pm:

    Suburbs— that’s the point. Kirk Dillard would be guv today… And will be, if nominated, in 2014 against Pat Quinn. But, as long as the ring wing picks your candidate in Illinois, the r party will be reduced to writing opinion blogs, not governing.


  15. - John A Logan - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 1:37 pm:

    The republican party is dead because the people that support traditional republican values are already pushing up daisies or reviewing their preplanned funeral packages. Republicans will have to become democrats to win elections in Illinois. Make no mistake about it, the Illinois republican party is dead.


  16. - My opinion - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 1:40 pm:

    Obviously Rich, I am not talking about your well respected blog…,


  17. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 1:54 pm:

    ===Republicans will have to become democrats to win elections in Illinois. ===

    Last time I checked, US Sen. Mark Kirk, Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka and Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford were all Republicans.


  18. - Will Caskey - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 2:12 pm:

    Too subtle, Rich. Needs “PAT QUINN! ->” drawn in big red letters pointing at 2010.


  19. - Endangered Moderate Species - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 2:48 pm:

    –The republican party is dead because the people that support traditional republican values are already pushing up daisies or reviewing their preplanned funeral packages.–

    General Logan,
    Your thinking is what is wrong with the current GOP thinking. Yesterday’s ILGOP leaders were fiscal conservatives but were moderates on social issues. George Ryan ran a campaign to the left of Glenn Poshard. Politics is about winning elections and having influence in the debate. As long as the current GOP continues to hold their candidates to the litmus test right wing views, they will continue down the path they are currently walking on.


  20. - Crime Fighter - Friday, Nov 16, 12 @ 3:25 pm:

    =”excluding independent and third-party candidates.”=

    Hopefully it won’t always have to be that way.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* A third poll shows tighter race
* Topinka continues string of union endorsements
* Smallish potatoes
* Sabato: Rauner now deemed favorite
* Rahm has a point, but...
* Rauner goes to ground in face of corporate inversion questions
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Late news
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Apple Now Replacing Damaged iPhone 5s Displays in Retail Stores
        * French telecoms company, Iliad makes bid for T-Mobile US [Rumor]
        * Hangouts for Enterprise now allows use without G+ account
        * Mobile Ad Startup AppLovin Says It Has Reached A $100M Revenue Run Rate
        * Samsung’s partnership with Oculus VR brings familiar HW to new Rift dev kit
        * Windows Phone 8.1 update: More features and Cortana in China and UK
        * Yahoo! Finance app redesigned for Android

        * Deals: Over $100 in Free Apps, Eneloop AAs, MacBook Storage Upgrades
        * The Best Things to Buy in August
        * Ford And GM Face Lawsuit Over In-Car CD Ripping
        * If only it was 2009: BlackBerry releases a BBM app for Windows Phone
        * Samsung Galaxy Note 4 Could See September 3rd Announcement
        * Facebook launches Internet.org app in Zambia
        * France’s Iliad makes a surprise bid for T-Mobile. Would it be a better fit?

        * Video, audio of Carlos Rodon's first appearance for Winston-Salem
        * White Sox trade rumors: John Danks still scheduled to start
        * Personal stats nice, but Abreu wants to win
        * First inning dooms Noesi, White Sox in Detroit
        * Tigers 7, White Sox 2: Detroit mauls Hector Noesi
        * White Sox try to lock up series win with Danks
        * Nate Jones undergoes Tommy John surgery


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Workers comp rate decrease of 5.5% proposed for.....
        * Governor Candidates Assess Overseas Tax Breaks..
        * THE CHICAGO WAY: Why Bruce Rauner and Rahm Eman.....
        * Cops: 2 people shot in downtown Chicago high-rise..
        * GETTING BIBLICAL..
        * 7th Street to close downtown for repairs..
        * Smallish potatoes..


        * Demoted worker shoots CEO, kills self in Chicago
        * Chicago mayor defends welcoming immigrant kids
        * Chicago ordinance requires permits for pot shops
        * Landlord wants Avon eatery evicted for pot machine
        * Consumer advocates watching Exelon-Integrys deal
        * Agency could cut hours at Illinois historic sites
        * State Fair grandstand won't be fixed for opening
        * Ore. authorities search for missing man
        * Notorious Chicago officers top misconduct list
        * Quinn: Workers' compensation rate to fall in 2015

        * Teen collapses at Quinn campaign event
        * Quinn: Workers' compensation rate to fall in 2015
        * 'Headlines' in Rauner campaign ad don't match up
        * Quinn signs epinephrine law for Illinois schools
        * Governor candidates differ on overseas tax breaks
        * Quinn: State will 'prevail' in Shakman lawsuit
        * Illinois Medicaid restricts use of hepatitis drug
        * Quinn OKs ballot question on tax hike for incomes over $1M
        * Lawsuit against Quinn back in court in October
        * Illinois to ask voters about taxing millionaires

        * CSO's Martha Gilmer named CEO of San Diego Symphony
        * Shooting in Chicago's financial district kills 1, wounds 1: reports
        * Shooting in Chicago's financial district kills 1, wounds 1
        * Nordstrom announces it will buy Trunk Club
        * Target taps PepsiCo exec as new CEO


        * Deerfield man missing from Oregon nature camp
        * Aldermen advance anti-sweatshop ordinance after awkward debate
        * Parkinson’s drug trial has researchers optimistic
        * Chicago telephone tax to rise by 56 percent to shore up pensions
        * Whitney Young students release endangered turtles in swamp
        * Cop killer removed as baseball coach, league's board quits over uproar
        * Cop killer out as baseball coach; league's board quits over uproar
        * 20-year sentence in Wicker Park choking, stabbing case
        * What a view! Hancock voted one of America's best
        * Man gets 20-year sentence in Wicker Park choking, stabbing case


        * Fire damages several garages at the Garden Homes in Alsip
        * Police: Loop executive kills self after wounding firm's CEO
        * Ex-Bull charged with criminal sexual assault, battery
        * Clerk reissued more than 12,000 city stickers
        * Clerk reissued more than 12,000 city stickers
        * At least 2 wounded in separate shootings on South, West Sides
        * Chicago Tribune's new website to launch Friday
        * Man charged with attempted child abduction in Oak Park
        * Deerfield teen missing from wilderness program in Oregon
        * Jogger sexually assaulted at gunpoint in Marquette Park


        * Community Prosecutions Credited With Drops In Crime
        * Community prosecutions credited with drop in crime
        * Police responding to shooting in the Loop
        * Demoted worker kills self, wounds CEO in Loop shooting
        * After Water: Science, art and journalism around climate change
        * CPD leaves commander in post despite assault allegation, DNA match
        * Business, Labor Leaders Urge Quinn Administration To Finish Fracking Rules
        * Inspector General Discloses Political Hiring Investigation
        * Listen to State Week - July 25, 2014
        * State Police Cancels New Trooper Training, Citing Budget


        * Our Opinion: Dangerous pedestrian crossing getting the attention it deserves
        * The GOP as the party of reform
        * John Cooney: Lawsuit abuse is a myth spun by big business
        * Quinn: Workers' compensation rate to fall in 2015
        * Quinn signs epinephrine law for Illinois schools
        * Travis Akin: Lawsuit reform could improve Illinois’ business climate
        * George Will: A middle course on foreign policy
        * Eugene Robinson: Absent on immigration reform
        * Governor candidates differ on overseas tax breaks
        * Quinn: State will 'prevail' in Shakman lawsuit


        * State labor board: St. Clair Township violated contract negotiation process
        * Behind the Scenes with ... Kevin Hambly
        * Belleville mom gets probation for giving underage son alcohol prior to his death
        * Suspect arrested in Metropolis shooting
        * Nursing mothers invited to Big Latch On Saturday
        * Man charged with placing needles in meat sold at Belleville grocery store
        * Police: Man put needles in meat at Belleville grocery store 'for the hell of it'
        * Collinsville's assistant chief to head Lindenwood-Belleville security
        * Chuck's Take 7-31
        * Carbondale man sentenced for bank robbery


        * Cops: 1 dead, 1 critical after Chicago high-rise shooting
        * Durbin wants feds to check out Canadian National delays on EJ&E
        * Report: Two shot in downtown Chicago office building
        * Work needs to be positive part of who we are
        * Ex-Bull Brunson pleads not guilty to sex assault charges

        * Rep. Lipinski Announces $206428 Grant for ...
        * Rep. Lipinski's Bill Renaming Mount Greenw...
        * Rep. Lipinski Issues Statement on Presiden...
        * Congressman Dan Lipinski to host 3 events ...
        * House passes Lipinski bill for Herbie John...
        * Renaming of Mount Greenwood post office in...
        * 'It's an adventure'! Michelle Malkin and f...
        * Rep. Lipinski's Bill Improving Internation...
        * Rep. Lipinski Announces $206428 Grant for ...
        * Rep. Lipinski's Bill Renaming Mount Greenw...

        * Sen. Dick Durbin Introduces Adjunct Facult......
        * Sen. Dick Durbin Introduces Adjunct Facult......
        * Sen. Dick Durbin Introduces Adjunct Facult......
        * Sen. Dick Durbin Introduces Adjunct Facult......
        * Sen. Dick Durbin Introduces Adjunct Facult......

        * Kirk pushes Obama for stiffer sanctions on......
        * Manchin, Bipartisan Group of Senators Intr......

        * "Admin relief now" sign at ICIRR protest
        * Governor Candidates Assess Overseas Tax Breaks
        * Advocates for the developmentally disabled question Quinn/Emanuel commitment
        * Stantis: Renaming Chicago
        * Arthur Goldstein. Blaming tenure is a fool’s game.
        * Guest ten minute drawing. Jose Vilson.
        * Seize all the Sept. 4 opportunities for only $99
        * Save $50 by renewing Leasing Agent license on July 31
        * Teachers Unions vs. Students [video]
        * State Rep. Cabello tapped for House Republican leadership team


        * Pat Quinn: Patronage Will Prevail
        * Governor Quinn and Company Officials Open Nippon Sharyo Expansion in Rochelle - Passenger Rail Car Manufacturing Plant Expansion Creating 90 New Jobs
        * Governor Quinn Signs Legislation to Expand Life-Saving Measures in Illinois Schools - Expands Epinephrine Law to Protect Illinois’ Students in Life-Threatening Emergencies
        * Governor Quinn Announces Historic Workers’ Compensation Rate Reductions - Savings from 2011 Reforms Expected to Save $450 Million for Businesses Across Illinois
        * Pat Quinn’s Reality Check




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller