SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: Durbin doing well

Tuesday, Dec 4, 2012

* The latest from Public Policy Polling

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q2 Generally speaking, in 2014, if the Democratic
candidate for Senate was Dick Durbin, would
you vote for him or his Republican opponent?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 52%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

* From the pollster

Durbin is in such good shape because 20% of Republicans support his work in the Senate, and 13% of them say they will probably vote for him in two years. Independents are split right down the middle on both fronts, including 42-42 on the re-elect.

Faced with actual opponents, Durbin does even better, though slightly more Republicans and independents are undecided than Democrats. Outgoing Rep. Bob Dold comes closest to matching the ideal Republican’s standing, with a 21-point deficit (54-33). Failed 2010 Tea Party contender Patrick Hughes is down 22 (53-31), and retiring Rep. Joe Walsh lags by 25 (54-29).

In all three actual head-to-heads, Durbin maintains the same 13% of the GOP’s support, and outdoes his 82% level with his own party by two or three points. The main difference is with independents. He jumps up two to five points with them for leads of nine points over Dold and Hughes and 18 over Walsh.

Granted, Hughes is a complete unknown—88% have no opinion of him, so he is truly generic. Still only 46% have an opinion on Walsh (14% favorable and 32% unfavorable), and 49% on Dold (21-28). So they stand more to gain than Durbin does. But when name recognition is equalized at this point, Durbin’s advantage actually increases to leads of 25 to 35 points, so combined with his strength and the Republicans’ relative unpopularity, he is unlikely to get much if any more vulnerable.

Barring unforeseen circumstances and/or a solid candidate, agreed.

* More results

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Dold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick Hughes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 88%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Walsh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Bob
Dold, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 54%
Bob Dold………………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Patrick
Hughes, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 53%
Patrick Hughes ……………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Joe
Walsh, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 54%
Joe Walsh………………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

* Methodology

PPP surveyed 500 Illinois voters from November 26th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Crosstabs are here.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


27 Comments
  1. - Ace Matson - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:41 am:

    It should be “Whom” would you vote for. Doesn’t anybody know grammar anymore?


  2. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:42 am:

    Durbin is an interesting guy. Against a lot of Dems, I would take a serious look at a moderate Republican like Dold or even Dilliard.

    But Durbin is different. He’s got enough of a history for standing up for this state that he’s a real asset.

    Also, I haven’t spent much time talking to him, but when I have he’s one of the most down to earth people that I’ve met. He’s very likeable personally.

    The GOP may be better off giving him a pass and then putting all the resources into defeating Quinn. Pick your battles. Money spent defeating Durbin will be wasted. Money spent against Quinn/Dem nominee can make a difference.


  3. - shore - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:48 am:

    Dold outspent his opponent, a political neophyte who a lot of democrats didn’t think had a shot of winning, 2-1 and lost. Durbin’s gang of 6 thing failed and he hasn’t offered much, but his two greatest assets are who the republican candidate is and the republican brand.


  4. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:55 am:

    Durbin is solid and Illinois is lucky to have him. He’ll be our US Senator for as long as he likes.

    There is no way a top tier GOPer will run against him. It’s political suicide. I expect we’ll see a neophyte millionaire run a vanity campaign and spend way too much money for way too few votes.


  5. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:58 am:

    I’d love to see Joe Walsh waste more GOP money running against Senator Durbin.


  6. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:02 pm:

    Odd to me that Dold had more statewide name ID than Walsh. Would have guessed Walsh would be by far the more recognizable name.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:06 pm:

    The long answer - Aaron Schock for Governor…. Why? Durbin is not beatable. Not today, Not in the next Primary, not in the next General.

    Schock for Governor is the answer to is poll’s question to “How is Durbin doing?” Over 50% & between 13 to 20% Repubs favoring Durbin, again, the answer to the question is Schock for Governor.

    Maybe 7 years from now, it will change, but in the next 23 months look pretty nice for the Senior Senator from Illinois.


  8. - Captain Illini - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:08 pm:

    There is no doubt that Senator Durbin is ultra liberal in his voting record, and he’s a master at demagogic language…so IF there were an opponent, then the logical thing to attach are his long time voting record and presenting an alternative to his many stances, inclusive of everything needing more taxes.


  9. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:14 pm:

    ===It should be “Whom” would you vote for. Doesn’t anybody know grammar anymore? ===

    Actually, it should be “For whom would you vote?”


  10. - MrJM - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:18 pm:

    The fact that 55% of respondents are “not sure” about their opinion of Joe Walsh is a reminder that we CapFaxers are a select lot who operate within a rarefied bubble.

    ‘Cause, I mean… Come on, people!

    – MrJM


  11. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:47 pm:

    Captain Illini, While I agree with your characterization of Durbin, I think you fail to note that his stance on the issues is a fair mirror image of the beliefs of many in this state.

    Just sayin’


  12. - Don Moss - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:54 pm:

    Durbin is one of the best things to happen to Illinois in many many years. My hope is that he rises to become the Senate Majority Leader in the near future.


  13. - Siriusly - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:12 pm:

    Interesting poll. I don’t think it will be enough to convince him to run again though. I think he’s going to retire.


  14. - just sayin' - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:28 pm:

    Pat Hughes and Joe Walsh? Really?

    The gop would be better off slating a ham sandwich. 1st, at least would do no harm. 2nd, I know it would poll better. 3rd, ham sandwich is no has-been.


  15. - RNUG - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:38 pm:

    I’ve never voted for Durbin and probably never will. I knew him back in the 70’s when he was getting started and saw a different side than the public does today.

    But I’ll concede that when he isn’t busy pushing the Dem party national agenda, he does bring home the bacon for Illinois and his staff knows how to do constitutient services … so I understand why people like him.


  16. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:40 pm:

    DD and Captain Illini, since you both agree that Durbin is “ultra liberal in his voting record, and he’s a master at demagogic language…”, it makes me wonder:

    How would you describe yourselves?

    And DD, you are of the opinion that a majority of Illinoisans are “ultra-liberal” and supporters of “demagogic language?”


  17. - Crime Fighter - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:44 pm:

    It’s good to see the positive comments about Senator Durbin. I’ve worked with Senator Durbin’s staff and found the Senator and his staff to be excellent. Unfortunately, over the years I’ve witnessed alot of unwarranted hostility toward the Senator, even protests at his Springfield home by the shoot, pollute, and swindle crowd here in Sangamon County.
    After seeing the comments and the polling, there may be hope yet for a civilized society.


  18. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 2:12 pm:

    Could have been more specific, word. However, Durbin’s past rhetoric as it pertains to actions of those in charge of prisoners at Gitmo is disturbing. Durbin said the highly charged comments on the floor of the senate. He later apologized. Frankly, I think the first remarks reflect his true feelings as opposed to the follow up. Just my opinion.

    If you read my post, however, I pointed out that a “fair number” of Illinoisans supported his positions. How you get from there to a majority is a mystery to me.

    I made no comparison re the rhetoric.


  19. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 2:15 pm:

    Sorry, misread my own post. I said “fair mirror image of the beliefs of many in this state”. Beliefs of many does NOT equate to a majority, word.


  20. - CU Voter - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 2:15 pm:

    Still a lot of Eagles fans out there


  21. - Downstater - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 3:14 pm:

    I would expected his favorable numbers to have been higher.


  22. - walkinfool - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 4:30 pm:

    Why compare Durbin to the three strawmen? Dold, Walsh, and Hughes are not credible candidates from the getgo, and the GOP can come up with a dozen better — if any of them wanted to take the personal risk.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 4:56 pm:

    ===… — if any of them wanted to take the personal risk.===

    None will.

    They can read polls, and this is enough to at the bare minimum, make someone pause.


  24. - G'Kar - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 5:00 pm:

    Joe Walsh is “retiring”? That is a polite way to put it, I suppose.


  25. - RNUG - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 5:13 pm:

    Crime Fighter @ 1:44 pm,

    What you see is not always what you get if you are one of the powerless “little people”. From multiple incidents involving different members of my immediate family over a 35 year period, at least some of that hostility is warranted.


  26. - park - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 7:56 pm:

    He’s OK. Has shown courage a number of times since he’s been elected. I’m an R and would vote for him.


  27. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 5, 12 @ 12:24 am:

    Dupage Dan, I wouldn’t dare to question you about ignorant demagoguery.

    You’re the champ.

    But, in this case, I think you’re referring to the time when Sen. Durbin expressed outrage when a few United States soldiers violated the Uniform Code of Conduct.

    There are hundreds of thousands of volunteer soldiers, risking their lives for all of us, every day. I, and most, remain in awe and grateful.

    The soldiers in question that Durbin referred to had counsel, were tried and convicted.

    They were bad people. They did bad things. They abused prisoners of war, in the most perverted ways.

    That’s outrageous. We’re Americans, savvy?. We don’t roll that way.

    We are better than that.

    Durbin said the word “Nazi.” And he was right. The actions of those few criminals were disgusting and perverted, just like the Nazis.

    My folks beat the Nazis and the Commies and chose to cross the ocean to become Americans.

    That’s a great gift, and an awesome responsibility. It means a great deal to me.

    My country, right or wrong. When right, keep it right. When wrong, make it right.

    Leave it better than you found it. That’s the only mission.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Tomorrow's news today
* Oddities and ends
* Durbin launches second positive ad
* *** UPDATED x3 - Full Rauner response - Rauner issues statement - Quinn responds *** Question of the day
* Black radio ad slams Rauner for failure to hire a single African-American at company
* Today's chart
* *** UPDATED x1 - Quinn responds *** Rauner unveils ethics reform plan
* Today's number: 30 percent less likely
* Bigfooted by the Trib
* *** UPDATED x1 - Bustos responds *** Schilling ad attacks Bustos over budget cuts
* *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Crosstabs, TV ads, cable TV buys and an events list
* Quinn moves to second negative track
* Rate Bruce Rauner's new TV ad: "100 years of failure"
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Sony forecasts quadruple losses due to smartphone business
        * Samsung Galaxy Note 4 sales to begin a little early
        * HTC delivers new imaging features in latest Gallery update
        * Beach Buggy Racing has 12 tracks and multiple karts to choose
        * OnePlus scraps further plans for One StyleSwap covers
        * Memoir Debuts A “Predictive” Photo-Sharing App For iOS 8
        * Spacecom review: A rousing game of strategy between a bunch of triangles

        * Office Gadgets to Make Workdays Fun Again
        * Journalism school shuts down its print newspaper, will publish everything on Medium
        * New iOS 8 Keyboard Translates Your Text Into Emojis
        * Bug Delays Launch of Apps Using Apple’s HealthKit in iOS 8
        * “It’s Like an iPad!” Real People — Not Tech Reviewers — Hold iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.
        * Sudden Management Shift as Hampton Creek Seeks to Raise $50M on a $300M to $400M Valuation From Vy Capital, Others
        * SwiftKey Brings Swipe-to-Type and Predictive Text to iOS 8

        * Following up: Adam Eaton's second half, Chris Sale's schedule
        * Gillaspie, White Sox solve Royals' bullpen
        * White Sox 7, Royals 5: Kansas City bullpen titans falter
        * Sale seeks another stellar start in KC, series win
        * Gillaspie, White Sox solve Royals' bullpen
        * Out call on Viciedo confirmed on replay
        * High hopes, no set plan for Konerko's remaining ABs


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Gov. Quinn announces aluminum company locating .....
        * Quinn, Rauner ads focus on corruption..
        * Quinn blasts NFL owners with dig at GOP opponent..
        * Rauner Would've Vetoed Medical Marijuana Bill..
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian off ballot..
        * Local party leaders ‘confident’ about November .....


        * Warrant: SC dad feared 5 slain kids would kill him
        * Peoria forgoes search, promotes interim cop chief
        * Woman gets prison sentence in 5-year-old's death
        * Emanuel wants no more signs as large as Trump's
        * Herbicides indirectly kill fish in Manteno lake
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian off ballot
        * Rauner ethics plan targets lobbyists, lawmakers
        * Ex-deputy gets 50 years prison in child sex case
        * Hundreds apply for jobs at Illinois Thomson prison
        * Beanie Babies creator's sentence debated in court

        * White to focus on technology, highway safety in fifth term
        * Quinn blasts NFL owners with dig at Rauner
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian gubernatorial candidate off ballot
        * Rauner’s ethics reform plan targets lobbyists, lawmakers
        * Hundreds apply for jobs at northern Illinois federal prison
        * Rauner questions medical marijuana program secrecy
        * New subpoena issued for Quinn’s anti-violence program
        * Evans: Eliminate conflicts of interest in legislature
        * State legislative panel delays decision on fracking rules
        * Quinn: Monitor not needed to oversee state hiring

        * Old Second CEO retires after 42-year bank career
        * Leo Burnett, WPP lose Miller Lite ad account to TBWA
        * Pizza Hut testing 'skinny slice'
        * Photos: Pizza Hut testing 'skinny slice'
        * New U of I med school gets faculty green light


        * Trump happy over Emanuel crackdown on signs
        * Zimbabwean president wants to testify for Chicago businessman, lawyer says
        * HITTING A CHILD IS ALWAYS WRONG
        * 16-year-old is second person charged in fatal home invasion
        * Appeals court to decide if Beanie Baby billionaire got off easy
        * River ordinance is sign of good taste
        * Highland Park woman sentenced to five years for running over, killing 5-year-old girl
        * Emanuel wants last word in sign war with Trump
        * Highland Park teen to be sentenced for running over, killing 5-year-old girl


        * TSA chief: Nearly half of U.S. air travelers going through expedited security
        * 3 wounded in city shootings
        * Chicago Public Schools' personnel chief steps down
        * Third person arrested in fatal shooting of retired police sergeant
        * 5 years in 'huffing' crash that killed girl, 5
        * Rauner, Quinn ramp up ethics barbs in Illinois governor race
        * Prosecutors: Woman smothered over shoes, money
        * After 'awful' Trump Tower sign, mayor proposes restrictions along Chicago River
        * Chicago officer's widow sues over fatal Calumet Park police chase
        * Ex-sheriff's deputy gets 50 years in child sex abuse case


        * I Like Illinois Website Debuts, In Time For The Election
        * Cullerton: I LIKE Illinois!
        * Trauma Care Decision Highlights Competition Between Springfield Hospitals
        * Springfield Art Co-Op Founder "Blossoms" On East Coast
        * Springfield Mayor Houston Points Out Sewer Improvements
        * Mayor: We Are Doing Sewer Work
        * N.J. Gov. Christie Stumps For Rauner In Springfield
        * Fracking Rules Action Delayed; Could Be A Sign Of Revision
        * Who Owns The Rights To Vivian Maier's Photos?
        * Legislature Approved A $100 Million Tax On Business & Didn't Know It


        * White to focus on technology, highway safety in fifth term
        * Quinn blasts NFL owners with dig at Rauner
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian gubernatorial candidate off ballot
        * Rauner’s ethics reform plan targets lobbyists, lawmakers
        * Hundreds apply for jobs at northern Illinois federal prison
        * Our Opinion: Carbon monoxide alarms belong in schools
        * Rauner questions medical marijuana program secrecy
        * New subpoena issued for Quinn’s anti-violence program
        * Evans: Eliminate conflicts of interest in legislature
        * Michael Gerson: Leading from behind the curve


        * Herrin man gets six years for criminal damage
        * Heartland balances budget despite drop in enrollment hours
        * Group expressing interest in becoming medical marijuana sites
        * UI professor: MacArthur award 'completely blindsided me'
        * I-80 bridge at LeClaire closed in both directions
        * Updated: Driver's facility to reopen Tuesday, with limits; property management disputes state claim
        * Johnson County Junque Jamboree comes to Vienna Saturday
        * Coroner: Smoking and home oxygen machines led to deaths
        * SAR gives awards to paramedic, sheriff
        * 09-17-14 News-Gazette Prep Sports Podcast


        * FSU benches Winston for 1st half of Clemson game
        * Sugar Grove man gets 7 years for cemetery thefts
        * Injured Marlins star Stanton finished for season
        * Panthers remove DE Greg Hardy from active roster
        * Fed signals plan to keep key rate at record low

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Jesse Jackson Jr. political fund fined nea...
        * Jackson Jr.'s political fund fined nearly ...
        * 'Celebrity Crime Files' Season Three, With...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Shimkus Discusses Presidential Policies - ...
        * Hultgren, Roskam to Host Service Academy D...
        * Shimkus not taking election for granted - ...
        * At a glance: How metro-east residents vote...

        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Dems Give Business a Thorny Embrace...
        * Dems Give Business a Thorny Embrace...

        * Shangri La's Barr al Jissah ResortSpa to o......
        * ISIS fight: Congress to vote on arming Syr......

        * Neil Steinberg compares opposition to Israeli policies and campus rape.
        * Richard Skoda’s dreams.
        * S.O.R.E. field trip. Town Hall with Senators Biss and Manar on school funding, Special Needs.
        * Learning Disabilities Association (LDA) of Illinois opposes SB16.
        * Chicago’s Marshall High School and Zombie education reform.
        * California public pension funds to hedge fund managers: “Drop dead.”
        * Leadership.
        * Hooray for cartoonists.
        * Biss and Manar want schools to make do with less. SB16.
        * Susan Sadlowski-Garza.


        * Rauner Launches New TV Ad: 100 Years
        * 100 Years
        * Bruce Rauner Announces Ethics Blueprint
        * Across Illinois, They’re Talking About Pat Quinn’s Corruption
        * New subpoena in federal probe of Quinn anti-violence grant program




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller