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CD2 roundup

Thursday, Feb 7, 2013

* Daily Kos’ founder is really out to get 2nd Congressional District candidate Sen. Toi Hutchinson. Markos Moulitsas has endorsed Robin Kelly and he’s been posting at least daily rants on the pro-gun positions of both Hutchinson and Debbie Halvorson. Kos’ latest is a now-deleted 2011 Facebook post

Says Kos

The Illinois State Rifle Association is the state affiliate of the National Rifle Association, and she had no problem attending their fundraisers, scooping up their cash, and enabling their agenda in Springfield.

Yet now she wants to run from that record and claim that she’s pulled a Mitt Romney—180-degree overnight conversion when politically expedient. She claims Sandy Hook made her change her mind, but 500 gun-related deaths in Chicago last year didn’t?

As of this writing, Kos has raised over $61K for Kelly via Act Blue.

* In other CD2 news, Sheriff Dart has endorsed Anthony Beale

Dart says he’s been impressed with Beale as the two have worked on a number of issues, both while Dart was a state lawmaker and as sheriff. Dart and Beale scheduled a news conference Thursday.

* And Beale’s campaign disputes Robin Kelly’s recent poll

“There’s no way that I believe this poll is accurate,” said Beale campaign spokeswoman Delmarie Cobb.

The poll… puts Kelly in the lead of top candidates in raw numbers and a statistical tie with Debbie Halvorson when the margin of error is taken into account. Previously, Halvorson had led in every poll.

Cobb’s argument is voter turnout will be greatest in the city and Beale is the only city candidate in a field of 16 Democrats. The 2nd congressional district stretches into Will and Kankakee counties.

“Forty percent of the vote comes from the city. Sixty percent of the vote comes from the South Suburbs. You’ve got, Toi, Robin, Debbie and everybody else running for the 60 percent. Anthony has … - 98 percent of the 9th ward is in the 2nd congressional district.”

I dunno. Chicago has a lot of the district’s population, but most people expect city turnout to be abysmal.

Also, release your own poll if you don’t like Kelly’s. Give us some data.

* Related…

* Citing Gun Issue, Kelly Claims Slight Lead in Illinois Special Election

* Preckwinkle, Hutchinson in ‘smear campaign,’ Halvorson says

* Debbie Halvorson Says Michael Bloomberg Trying to Buy Ill. Special Election

* Mitchell: Despite Cardiss Collins pioneering spirit, black Illinois women are absent in the House

- Posted by Rich Miller        


11 Comments
  1. - shore - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 12:14 pm:

    This is by far one of the most intense primaries I’ve seen from democrats in the state in a long long time, the quinn primary maybe, but interesting to watch.


  2. - Let me get this straight - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 12:21 pm:

    That Facebook post from Illinois Rifle Association tells the whole story! Toi you were for guns, before you were against them! How can we trust anything you say on any issue??


  3. - Crazy Like A Fox - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 12:27 pm:

    That first comment should be on every single Robin Kelly mail piece.

    “Illinois State Rifle Association: She’s good on our issue”

    If Robin Kelly can keep hammering away on the anti-gun stuff without inoculating voters to the message, she’ll win this one.

    I think Beale could pull out a squeaker or at least play the spoiler but he needs to pick a target and get laser focused.


  4. - siriusly - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 12:31 pm:

    All quotes from Beale’s spokesperson Delmarie Cobb should be disregarded as fantasy. She has no credibility in this universe or any other. This is the person who once proclaimed that Roland Burris made Dick Durbin a better senator.

    I think that the NRA issue is going to sink both Halvorson and Hutchinson.


  5. - train111 - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 12:56 pm:

    Kos:2010 State Sen Toi hutchinson is in a hot race against tea party backed and well financed Republican Adam Baumgartner therefore we must endorse her because we need a Dem to win.

    Kos 2013: Hutchinson is a total hypocrite for her gun stance, therefore we can not elect her and must support our own handpicked candidate in the primary.

    The way I see it, Kos and his followers do as many flip flops with the candidates they support as they claim Sen hutchinson has done on guns. As long as it’s ‘their’ endorsed candidate, they would be more than happy to sweep anything they aren’t happy with under the carpet.

    Furthermore: Just as I see conservative GOPers crying constitutional crisis every 5 minutes against the President so that they can politcally posture in the media and tell everybody back home how much they are doing, however when it comes to the real issues facing the country, they are in actuality they are doing nothing–so now the liberal Dems are grasping onto this issue so that they can politcally posture in the media and tell all the folks back home how much they are doing, but like the conservatives when it comes to the real issues facing the country–they are likewise doing nothing.

    train111


  6. - Will Caskey - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 1:36 pm:

    I submit to the reader that the above statement is neither technically nor meaningfully different from this one, from Sen. Hutchinson’s issues page on gun safety (http://www.toihutchinson.com/on-the-issues/#gun-safety):

    “But we can’t keep addressing these challenges in silos. We must engage in all areas to get serious about reducing crime and giving our young people a reason to live. While gun safety is a critical step in cutting the cycle of violence that has plagued our communities, we must do much more to address the reasons for crime. Chicago Public Schools have an enrollment of over 400,000 students that are served by just 370 social workers. We need to hire more social workers to identify and help at-risk youth and invest in afterschool and gang intervention initiatives that give kids a constructive way to spend their time after class. In order to cut down on recidivism and create healthier communities, we must provide assistance to nonviolent felons who have paid their debt to society and are looking for work. A person who is working and can take care of themselves and their family isn’t the person wreaking havoc on our communities.”


  7. - Just don't take my Red Ryder - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 2:16 pm:

    Now Will, I can see what you mean about that particular statement, but that’s not exactly the senator’s problem here, is it?

    She had some reasons I understand, but still–Hutchinson signed a piece of paper on which see said she opposed “legislation restricting the private possession, ownership, purchase, sale and/or transfer of any semi-automatic firearms” (the Trib said high-capacity mags were addressed too, but unclear to me how exactly).

    It just seems like a stretch to say the gun control crowd is playing too fast and loose with the facts here, even if a reasonable liberal can acknowledge that weapons bans are far from silver bullet. It seems fair to criticize a candidate for signed statements regarding their positions on legislative issues that the POTUS wants to come to a vote this session, no?


  8. - Aechiesmom - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 2:37 pm:

    The Kos post is grossly misleading. That July 2011 event was a meet and greet set up for Sen. Hutchinson to get to know political and business leaders in Grundy County, which had just become a part of the 40th District. It was not a fundraiser, nor was it hosted by or sponsored by the ISRA. The Facebook postimg was not done by Sen. Hutchinson, nor was she aware of it. In fact, the ISRA has never hosted a fundraier for Sen. Hutchinson. While it is understandable that Markos wants to support his candidate of choice, it would be nice if he cound do so based on the actual record.


  9. - Archiesmom - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 2:53 pm:

    Archiesmom is grossly embarassed that her very first post to Capitol Fax is replete with typographical errors, and promises to be much more vigilant in the future.


  10. - Glass half full - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 6:49 pm:

    if Beale’s smart he drops out and endorses the eventual winner…the 800-1000 votes he actually controls could make him a queenmaker


  11. - Dave Fako - Friday, Feb 8, 13 @ 8:54 am:

    This is a comment on Kelly’s Poll, re-posted from our note in that thread. We do not have a client in the race at this time, but our firm had a client in this race who withdrew. As somebody who has polled extensively throughout this District over the last 15 years and numerous polls in this CD, I have a few observations / questions. 1.) Kelly’s poll appears to exclude the other 10 candidates. What does this race look like with all of the other candidates included in the mix? So far no recent public polling has shown this. Admittedly, individually they are probably earning fractional support, but collectively the other 10 candidates will earn some support. This also will help simulate the clutter of the race. Also, a few of the other candidates have common names that may attract more than a handful of votes, and one of them has a name very close to a former state legislator that may get some residual votes based on old, passive name ID. That would reduce the already small pool of undecided and probably shift the numbers a little, but how they shift (if at all) is the question. 2.) Where are these other 10 candidates getting their scattered support - is it concentrated in any area / demographic or scattered throughout the CD? How does this impact the top tier candidates base of support and their ability to expand their support 3.) Halvorson’s numbers seem to be relatively stable in the low 20% range + / - a little. Not sure if she holds that, but if she can, and Kelly / Hutchinson fail to break out, it might be enough to win. 4.) Beale has an opportunity to compete if he can consolidate support in the City and pick off a good share of the Thornton Twp vote and the three major female candidates continue to divide their support in the area, among women and among suburban African Americans. Its TBD is can put enough together to make this move.


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