SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
New poll

Wednesday, Feb 13, 2013

* As I told subscribers this morning, be careful when you read the media coverage of these poll results

The 2014 governor’s race in Illinois could be anybody’s game, according to the results of a new poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at SIU Carbondale.

A statewide survey of 600 registered voters from Jan. 27 to Feb. 8 shows Democrats leaning toward Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan in a hypothetical primary race with Gov. Pat Quinn and former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley. Republicans, meanwhile, are more undecided, with Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford taking a slight lead over other possible contenders, such as state Sen. Bill Brady, R-Bloomington, and U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, a Republican representing the state’s 18th congressional district.

Institute director David Yepsen said the poll, which has 4 percent margin of error, is a good snapshot of the potential races that will be heating up later this year.

The overall poll has a 4 percent margin of error. But the Democratic and Republican primary head-to-heads have much higher MoE’s. From the pollster

The Democratic subsample of 310 respondents has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points, and the Republican subsample of 186 respondents has a margin of error of 7.2 percentage points.

That GOP subsample is awfully darned tiny.

* Keeping that in mind, this is from NBC5

Of Republicans, 53.2 percent said they are undecided, 10.2 percent like State Treasurer Dan Rutherford, and 9.7 would vote for Senator Bill Brady. Congressman Aaron Schock won 9.1 percent while former Congressman Joe Walsh got 5.9 percent and state Senator Kirk Dillard 3.2 percent.

Among Democrats, 31.9 percent would vote for Madigan while 22.9 percent would vote again for Quinn and 11.9 would pick Daley. Even in this camp 28.4 percent was undecided.

Republican Bruce Rauner’s name was tested, but nobody picked him. That’ll change with $50 million, however.

* Sun-Times

Those polled gave Quinn poor remarks for the work he has done, with only 32.8 percent giving the governor positive job-performance ratings. The poll showed 51.3 percent disapproving of the governor’s job performance.

Those findings represent a sizable slide for Quinn since the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s polling unit last was in the field. Last summer, 42.2 percent of those surveyed carried a positive view of the governor’s job performance while 49 percent disapproved.

That question was asked of the entire universe, so it’s far more valid. But last year’s poll on Quinn’s job performance was somewhat of an outlier, since most other polls have shown far worse job performance numbers.

* Related…

* Rutherford points to office savings

* Union targets Quinn — again

* Schools facing another year of deep funding cuts

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 10:07 am:

    Quinn made fixing the pension problem “the reason he was put on Earth”, presumably as Governor.

    And he has sacrificed his support from Labor to get it.

    As long as there is no apparent solution, he has cooked his own goose. If there is something done on pensions quickly, his image might improve substantially.


  2. - shore - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 10:19 am:

    schock was on the railing getting a lot of facetime last night at state of the union while roskam made faces sitting next to paul ryan up in the gop nosebleed. I don’t think rauner’s $50 million will sell him, but I hope all of them run and there are 2,000 debates because the party really has no idea right now where its head is at.


  3. - Dazed & Confused - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 10:48 am:

    186 respondents wouldn’t suffice in a state rep race, let alone a statewide poll. Its somewhat embarrassing for the Paul Simon Institute to put out such small numbers for both sides after 10 days of polling.


  4. - Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 11:27 am:

    This confirms my very strong belief that there is no yearning for a Daley and if he runs, he will be quickly relegated to third place. I’d ignore the R results for the reasons Rich has already written about.

    Frankly it’s pretty ridiculous that they couldn’t oversample R’s to get a statistically relevant sample size. Do it right or don’t do it at all.


  5. - langhorne - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 11:32 am:

    any poll from now til quinn is defeated in the primary will have a heavy ABQ factor–anybody but quinn.

    so if the repub subsample was 186, rutherford and brady got about 18 mentions each, 17 for schock, 11 for walsh and 6 for dillard.


  6. - no more - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 12:27 pm:

    The SIU poll is a joke, a 186 respondants.The only real poll taken by reputable PPP had Dillard blowing away Quinn more than other GOPers and Dillard even beat Bill Daley. Schock trailed Quinn.Dillard would get 15-20% just because of DuPage County’s share of Republican Primary historical totals if he is not one if 5 people from his own county this time!


  7. - Charlie Leonard - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 12:39 pm:

    The Simon poll is a policy-related poll with an election question thrown in, just because we think it is interesting. It is not and does not purport to be an election question. Rich knows that, which is why he didn’t criticize the poll for it.

    We are always modest about our results and put our margins for error for the subsamples right up front.

    Data on the policy questions will be coming out in the next few days. Six hundred interviews is a perfectly respectable sample size.

    If people knew how expensive professional phone surveying was, they’d know why we didn’t oversample Republicans.


  8. - Charlie Leonard - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 12:45 pm:

    Sorry. “…does not purport to be an election POLL.”


  9. - Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 12:59 pm:

    Thanks for the poll and for checking in, Charlie.

    ==”If people knew how expensive professional phone surveying was, they’d know why we didn’t oversample Republicans.”==
    Heh. This would be much more effective evidence for ousting Pat Brady than what Oberweis is trying…


  10. - Votecounter - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 1:29 pm:

    Then why do it? For the headlines? This just makes it so people who understand polling won’t give the next one a second look.


  11. - Dazed & Confused - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 2:23 pm:

    Charlie - as someone with some polling experience, 600 respondents would be an average sample for a general election question. When you break it down and only get 186 for a statewide GOP primary, it is abysmal (Rich said awfully darned tiny). Perhaps you shouldn’t include the election question for interest because its somewhat tainted. Or use an implicit warning to the press that this is not an election question.

    If you break down the GOP vote into very broad regions, its essentially 20 percent Cook, 35 percent collars and 45 percent downstate. So I assume this poll had roughly 40 respondents in Cook, 70 in the collars and 90 downstate.


  12. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 3:44 pm:

    These Subsamples are small and both D an R results have an awfully big MoE–yet, if anything, from PQ’s perspective, it could perhaps be seen as mildly hopeful, if it’s ACtually more like 29-26, though he’s clearly behind. On the GOP side, whoa, there’s a LONG way to go b4 THAT guy is picked–might even be a Cliffhanger, like last time, ‘cuz, again, if anything, there’s clearly no “Front” runner…


  13. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 7:03 pm:

    Some folks are so addicted to political nonsense they have completely forgotten what the last gubernaorial polls in 2010 predicted.

    Really folks? You gonna believe polls after the last election?


  14. - Cincinnatus - Thursday, Feb 14, 13 @ 12:39 am:

    16 respondents separate high and low Republican candidate. About 90 respondents choose a candidate. 102 Illinois Counties.

    Utter nonsense.


  15. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Feb 14, 13 @ 9:13 am:

    Charlie -

    I’m not going to besmirch your poll. I find it useful.

    That said, when it comes to public policy, I find NIU’s annual public policy poll more helpful.

    For one thing, they’ve been asking a pretty consistent set of core questions the same way since 1984, with some slight expansions as the public policy debate expands. That gives us really good information about changes in public attitudes.

    Secondly, their sample size is over 1,100, which adds some reliability.

    Finally, they publish a voluminous amount of crosstab data, much more so than the Simon Institute.

    I rely on both polls, but lean more heavily on NIU for these reasons. Folks can find it here.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* It's just a bill...
* Question of the day
* What would toys be like without the civil justice system?
* EXELON 2014 Profits: $236,000/per HOUR and THEY WANT A BAILOUT???
* Dueling press releases
* Hello, I must be going...
* Digging into the mayoral numbers
* Caption contest!
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* Today's quotable
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Citymaps Raises $6M As Its Mapping App Goes Global
        * Moto Maker will now allow you to custom your new Moto 360
        * Google pilot tests mobile app ads in Play Store
        * Hop turns your email threads into chat conversations
        * Twitter adds more reporting tools to curb abuse and improve safety
        * Magic Touch Wizard for Hire requires advanced magic techniques, are you ready now?
        * The Week in iPhone Cases: Bring out the battery cases!

        * Oculus VR Offers $1 Million In Prizes To Gear VR Developers
        * Another Digital Exec Leaves Universal Music Group
        * Former Apple Retail Boss Ron Johnson Leads $16 Million Investment in Nasty Gal
        * Music royalty hunter Kobalt wins Google funding
        * New Pioneer BDR-XS06JM Portable Blu-ray Writer For Mac
        * Google Makes Another Media Bet, With a Venture Investment in Music Publishing
        * Take Home The Latest 15.6-Inch HD Notebook From Acer

        * First week of camp in the books for improved White Sox
        * Maximizing speed Coleman's mission with White Sox
        * Davidson reclaims zeal for game, confidence
        * Terrerobytes: Jose Quintana shows up on the radar
        * Coleman infuses passion for baserunning into discussion
        * Melky aims to be catalyst from No. 2 spot
        * White Sox feel pain of Bulls', Blackhawks' injuries

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Hello, I must be going…..
        * Reporters Attend Cabinet Meeting..
        * Social-service agencies fear painful cuts under.....
        * Illinois’ governor on a mission..
        * Gov. Bruce Rauner confident on budget deal stat.....
        * Illinois plan would aid Exelon nuclear plants..
        * House Speaker Michael Madigan renews push for '.....


        * US court declines to decide Illinois' benefits issue
        * Illinois plan would aid Exelon nuclear plants
        * Trucker convicted in 2014 fatal Illinois Tollway crash
        * Southbound Interstate 65 reopens after semitrailer crashes
        * Park advocates: More time needed on Obama library decision
        * US Steel to idle Gary Works coke plant, displacing 300
        * Teen charged in fatal East St. Louis shooting
        * U of Illinois asks court to dismiss professor's lawsuit
        * Lawmakers seek short-term action to stop Asian carp advance
        * No serious injuries in western Illinois school bus accident

        * Lt. Gov. Sanguinetti says GOP should court women, Latinos
        * Explore salary information for the state of Illinois
        * State Rep. Raymond Poe to be back at work next week
        * State plan would aid Exelon nuclear plants
        * Sanguinetti says GOP should court women, Latinos
        * Federal appeals court declines to decide Chicago retiree benefits issue
        * Federal appeals court declines to decide Illinois retiree benefits issue
        * Federal appeals court declines to decide Illinois pension issue
        * Gov. Rauner says deal on budget powers is 'very close'; Cullerton spokeswoman says 'major issues' remain
        * Madigan again proposes constitutional amendment for 'millionaires tax'

        * Lawmakers renew push for measures to stop invasive carp
        * US court declines to decide Illinois' benefits issue
        * Republicans pledge to fight FCC's Obama-backed open-web rules
        * How John Oliver transformed the net neutrality debate once and for all
        * Scott Walker clarifies his comparison of union activists to Islamic State terrorists


          * Ex-coroner charged with forgery, misconduct
          * Fire quickly squelched in upper floors of Hancock Tower
          * Lawmakers renew push for measures to stop invasive Asian carp
          * Rauner appoints West Side pastor to Chicago State board
          * Hundreds turn out to remember Moshe Rogers
          * Addams Tollway rebuilding project to begin next month
          * Juror: Acquitted man retrieved eaglets improperly but was well-intentioned
          * In prison for assault of girl, man convicted of trying to get prosecutor killed
          * New District 113 superintendent cleared of wrongdoing in California
          * U.S. Steel closing Gary Works coke plant


          * Unique Flavors
          * A Daily Realization
          * Chicago sets early voting record in last weekend before mayoral election
          * Standoff over new state school test continues
          * Medical Society Wants To Prevent Misuse Of Opiates
          * Child Care Providers Rally in Capitol
          * Travel And Learning Cultures Bring Us Closer
          * Author Discusses Volcano That Created Illinois, Frankenstein and Disease
          * Art Beat: Paintings, A Doc & Psychedelic Rock
          * Bedrock 66 Live! Features Celtic And Psychedelic Rock


          * Lt. Gov. Sanguinetti says GOP should court women, Latinos
          * Our Opinion: Turbulent times ahead for Illinois lawmakers
          * Fred Hayes: Illinois police support body cameras, but with tweaks to state law
          * E.J. Dionne: Chicago's Rahm-Chuy Show
          * Esther Cepeda: The captain of my family's ship
          * Quote of the Day: Friday, Feb. 27, 2015
          * Explore salary information for the state of Illinois
          * State Rep. Raymond Poe to be back at work next week
          * State plan would aid Exelon nuclear plants
          * Federal appeals court declines to decide Chicago retiree benefits issue


          * Cecile Eaton
          * Larry White
          * Walter Underwood
          * Nicole Ristow
          * Lazarus Hicks
          * Sue Shemwell
          * Benny Elliston
          * Robert Alsip
          * Paul West
          * Leon Blaszczynski


          * Agent: DT Ricky Jean-Francois agrees to deal with Redskins
          * Sens' Andrew Hammond ends LA Kings' 8-game win streak, 1-0
          * Earl Lloyd, first black player in NBA, dies at 86
          * Cubs skipper ranks as city's most compelling main man
          * Former McHenry County coroner indicted

          * An IL Congressman's Instagram Has Him in H...
          * How Downton Abbey Office Décor Morphed Int...
          * What We Talk About When We Talk About Aaro...
          * Aaron Schock Didn't Report Gifts On London...
          * Schock didn't report gifts, meals in Londo...
          * Schock can't shake off spending ethics com...
          * Aaron Schock Roasted Over Taxpayer-Funded ...
          * Watchdog group files complaint over lawmak...
          * Illinois Rep. Aaron Schock faces scrutiny ...
          * Beleaguered Aaron Schock hit with new comp...

          * Netanyahu accusation on Iranian nukes adds......
          * Savings From a Single Food Safety Agency A......
          * Students could see impact from stalled Whi......
          * Child poisonings from laundry detergent pa......
          * BOP chief says prison funding on schedule...

          * 6 Republicans to watch in DHS fight...
          * House Republicans Discuss Short-Term Fix o......
          * Thumbs up, thumbs down...
          * House Moves For Short-Term DHS Funding Fix...
          * Senate Judiciary Committee votes to confir......

          * Indiana Lawmakers Pull Plug On Speed Camera Bill
          * Schakowsky, A Jew, Decides To Skip Netanyahu’s Speech To Congress
          * ISIS Destroys Archaeological Treasures in Mosul
          * What can we learn about Chuy from last Little Village neighborhood mayor?
          * End of the Road for Division Street
          * Defensive Daley Disinforms
          * Poll: Keep Ryan in Jail
          * Ryan Watch
          * Chief of Cash
          * Going Blue


          * 24th Anniversary Desert Storm Remembrance Ceremony
          * Illinois Department of Human Rights Announces 2015 Spring Training Schedule
          * Snow and Freezing Rain to Impact Travel in Illinois - IDOT Crews Prepared to Battle Winter Weather this Weekend
          * IDOR Begins Processing Individual Tax Returns
          * IEMA Awards $435,378 in Grants for Hazardous Materials Emergency Planning - Funds will help 33 Local Emergency Planning Committees enhance emergency plans, response to HazMat incidents




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller