* As I told subscribers this morning, be careful when you read the media coverage of these poll results…
The 2014 governor’s race in Illinois could be anybody’s game, according to the results of a new poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at SIU Carbondale.
A statewide survey of 600 registered voters from Jan. 27 to Feb. 8 shows Democrats leaning toward Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan in a hypothetical primary race with Gov. Pat Quinn and former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley. Republicans, meanwhile, are more undecided, with Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford taking a slight lead over other possible contenders, such as state Sen. Bill Brady, R-Bloomington, and U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, a Republican representing the state’s 18th congressional district.
Institute director David Yepsen said the poll, which has 4 percent margin of error, is a good snapshot of the potential races that will be heating up later this year.
The overall poll has a 4 percent margin of error. But the Democratic and Republican primary head-to-heads have much higher MoE’s. From the pollster…
The Democratic subsample of 310 respondents has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points, and the Republican subsample of 186 respondents has a margin of error of 7.2 percentage points.
That GOP subsample is awfully darned tiny.
* Keeping that in mind, this is from NBC5…
Of Republicans, 53.2 percent said they are undecided, 10.2 percent like State Treasurer Dan Rutherford, and 9.7 would vote for Senator Bill Brady. Congressman Aaron Schock won 9.1 percent while former Congressman Joe Walsh got 5.9 percent and state Senator Kirk Dillard 3.2 percent.
Among Democrats, 31.9 percent would vote for Madigan while 22.9 percent would vote again for Quinn and 11.9 would pick Daley. Even in this camp 28.4 percent was undecided.
Republican Bruce Rauner’s name was tested, but nobody picked him. That’ll change with $50 million, however.
Those polled gave Quinn poor remarks for the work he has done, with only 32.8 percent giving the governor positive job-performance ratings. The poll showed 51.3 percent disapproving of the governor’s job performance.
Those findings represent a sizable slide for Quinn since the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s polling unit last was in the field. Last summer, 42.2 percent of those surveyed carried a positive view of the governor’s job performance while 49 percent disapproved.
That question was asked of the entire universe, so it’s far more valid. But last year’s poll on Quinn’s job performance was somewhat of an outlier, since most other polls have shown far worse job performance numbers.
* Rutherford points to office savings
* Union targets Quinn — again
* Schools facing another year of deep funding cuts