* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
I think a lot of people believed that if Bill Daley ran for governor his campaign would be as bland and vanilla as his public persona has been over the decades.
Instead, he’s turned into the most fiery candidate in the race so far. Daley is even “out-angering” wealthy Republican financier Bruce Rauner, who has tried to position himself as the “We’re not gonna take it any more!” choice for 2014.
He’s attacked Gov. Pat Quinn’s pathetic leadership, slammed the General Assembly for its ridiculous inaction and has made it clear that he’s not afraid to go on the attack against the Madigan family by releasing unflattering poll results earlier this week which showed that the House speaker could harm his daughter’s potential gubernatorial bid.
Daley has been selectively releasing responses to a poll taken in April for his campaign — back when few thought he would actually run. All of the responses released so far have dealt with Attorney General Lisa Madigan and her father, House Speaker Michael Madigan. None of the numbers released so far have showed any actual Daley strength.
For instance, Attorney General Madigan has a 54 percent favorable rating, according to a poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research for Daley’s campaign, and she leads Republican Treasurer Dan Rutherford 50-34 in an initial head-to-head matchup.
But after voters hear a statement about possible “major conflicts of interest” if both Madigan’s are at the top of two branches of government, that support falls and she moves into a 41-41 tie with Rutherford. 53 percent say it’s a “serious concern” that a Governor and a Speaker Madigan “will put too much power in one family’s hands and break the system of checks and balances that is supposed to keep power in government separated.” Another 17 percent say it’s “somewhat of a concern,” putting the total number at 70 percent.
According to the poll, 23 percent say they “like Lisa,” but would have a “hard time” voting for her if her father continues as House speaker. Another 26 percent said they wouldn’t vote for her regardless. That means a total of 49 percent are in the reticent/refusal category. I’ll post the Daley polling memo at the blog later this morning.
The day after releasing those numbers, Daley’s campaign leaked yet another result which won’t go over well with the Madigan clan.
“If Lisa Madigan ran for governor,” respondents were asked, “do you think her father Mike Madigan, speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives, should: Retire and not run for reelection as speaker; Run for reelection as speaker but commit to resign from office and retire if Lisa Madigan is elected governor; Continue to serve as speaker even if Lisa Madigan is elected governor?
According to the campaign, the poll found that 42 percent of likely general election voters said Speaker Madigan should retire if Lisa runs for governor. Another 22 percent said he should commit to resign if Lisa is elected. Twenty-five percent said he ought to continue to serve as speaker even if Lisa is elected governor. Twelve percent were undecided or refused to respond.
These poll numbers aren’t designed to run Attorney General Madigan out of the race. She undoubtedly has her own polling data and has done some focus groups. She’s fully aware that she’ll be subjected to endless misogynistic “daddy” attacks, and that every deal her father has ever cut will be run through the filter of her candidacy.
Instead, the idea here is to frame the debate before the debate even begins. So far, there has been no real response from Team Lisa. The speaker’s people bristle at every mention of a “conflict of interest” regarding her potential governorship and their constant refrain is to challenge reporters to define the term. The reporters don’t seem to feel the need to do that because voters appear to already pretty much get it in their guts. This is an easy story to write and an easy story to understand, so the stories will continue unless she comes up with an effective response.
So far, the overriding media theme is that she’ll either be completely controlled by her father or that the two of them will collude to rule the state unchecked. That’s a tough mindset to break, as the polling clearly shows.
* In other Madigan-related news…
Attorney General Lisa Madigan spent her political career crusading for equal rights for gays and lesbians but now faces an ill-timed and potentially damaging backlash within that voting bloc for the role her father, House Speaker Michael Madigan, played in the collapse of same-sex marriage legislation.
That assessment by a top supporter of the Religious Freedom and Marriage Fairness Act comes at a troubling time for the three-term attorney general as she considers a primary campaign for governor in a 2014 race where gays and lesbians could account for up to 10 percent of the vote.
Rick Garcia is the person featured in the story. He has somewhat limited influence in the gay political community these days after years atop it.
More…
“Up until last month, there might have been a slight edge within the [LGBT] community for Lisa, frankly, because people really, really like her. But because there wasn’t a vote and people are blaming the speaker, there’s some residual that hurts her. It’s not huge, but I think Gov. Quinn has the edge there, speaking now, early June,” Garcia said.
* On a related note, AG Madigan sat down for an interview with Windy City Times. An excerpt…
WCT: Obviously, there has been a lot of anger over this, even at supportive representatives. Do you think that anger is fair, and how do you feel that some of that has been directed as you as the daughter of Speaker Madigan?
Lisa Madigan: I think anger is understandable. Everybody who was working toward passage of this bill was certainly disappointed, upset that it did not have the votes to pass at the end of session. So, I can understand anger. I think the useful way to channel that anger is into working harder and assuring ourselves that we do get commitments from representatives that we will vote for this bill when it is called. I don’t think that anger for anger’s sake is useful at the end of the day. But, again, I understand that there are a lot of people who are very disappointed, myself included, that the votes weren’t there to pass it at the end of session.
WCT: Do you have any plans for Pride?
Lisa Madigan: We always go to the parade, so we’ll be out at the parade.
It should be interesting to see the reaction she gets. That was a pretty darned softball interview by WCT, so positions may not be so hard.
* Sneed…
Is this another indication Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan plans to run for governor?
◆ Dem femme data: Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon showed up at a Dem pre-slating meeting at the Hotel Allegro Thursday to pitch her desire to run for Madigan’s job.
Simon has made no bones about this, and is even broadly hinting to potential contributors that she has some sort of inside track on AG Madigan’s thinking. I’m not so sure about that, but whatever.
- Just Me - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 9:51 am:
RE: Bill Daley — His campaign is reminding me a little bit of Blagojevich’s first run for office. We all know how great of a Governor he was.
(And before anyone says it, I’m referring to Blago’s ability to work with the General Assembly and get things done. I’m not suggesting that Daley is corrupt.)
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 9:54 am:
In 2006, the Rod tag for JBT was, “what’s she thinking?” In 2013, the tag for Lisa might be, “what’s she waiting for?”
- wordslinger - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 9:57 am:
I’m still trying to figure out Daley’s vision of a path to victory. What votes can he actually put in the bank for a primary, whether it’s one-on-one vs. Quinn or a three-way race?
Knocking another candidate’s family connections seems counter-intuitive for someone named Daley.
- Cook County Commoner - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 9:57 am:
If reporters are having a tough time responding to Speaker Madigan’s representatives demanding to know the definition of a “conflict of interest,” perhaps they should borrow a line from SCOTUS Judge Potter Stewart on pornogrophy to the effect that we know it when we see it.
- DanL60 - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 10:32 am:
Daley wins a two-way primary against Quinn. I could see Lisa peeling off more Quinn votes than Daley votes. Rahm will be stumping for Daley, as will Rauner backers after he withdraws from the Republican primary. Lisa has a good-sized warchest right now ($4.3M and counting) but Daley can raise that kind of cash
More importantly this primary could serve as a full-blown test of OFA, which can provide him his street-level and backroom operations.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 10:38 am:
“Simon Says?
Tongues in Democratic Cricles have been a waggin’ as Sheila Simon says she is this/close to Attorney General Lisa Madigan. So close, Illinois’ second in command “claims” to know Lisa’s intention.
Upshot - Gives Simon some press
Downshot - Would you want to claim you know what a Madigan is thinking, and it not be true?
Backshot - Will this cause others to turn their back on Simon
Buckshot - When Lisa Madigan has had enough of the talk, expect a swift retort, and it might not be good for Sheila.
Me thinks a good plan might be for Sheila to forget she knows anything. Will she?
Stay tuned.”
- David P. Graf - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 11:20 am:
Recently, I got an email from Simon asking me to contribute even though she hasn’t actually decided to run for Attorney General. I sent a reply asking what exactly I would be contributing to but never got a reply. This just further demonstrates how clueless she is in addition to being an opportunist. I bet Quinn rues the day he did her an enormous favor by plucking her out of her day job teaching students at a university.
- Loop Lady - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 11:23 am:
Maybe Daley won’t make it to the primary…if you were the Daley family, would you give carte blanche for the Madigans to run IL? I don’t think
so…Daley is making this interesting at the very least…
- lakeviewlawyer - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 11:24 am:
fair or not, there is definitely widespread anger at the madigan brand in the lgbt community at the moment — whether it will last through march 2014, particularly if marriage passes by then, is hard to say. lisa received a very lukewarm reception at a big lgbt community event in late spring, and there were people who would not go up and talk to her at another more recent event.
- NW IL Democrat - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 11:31 am:
When Daley comes downstate, we’ll know he’s serious.
With downstate poised to play the region that chooses the nominee, Daley will have to make an aggressive push outside of Cook County where he would likely tie Quinn.
- Mokenavince - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 11:59 am:
Daley versus Quinn, will be like Grant taking Richmond. Morning line Daley 15 to 1.
- shore - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 12:01 pm:
Given how popular Lisa Madigan is and Governor Quinn’s recent history of dispatching primary challenges from irish chicago political dynasties I think Daley has to be incredibly aggressive. He and Rauner seam like the same candidate.
- Brendan - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 12:07 pm:
For what it’s worth, Simon actually has more legal experience (including 4 years as an assistant state’s attorney…for Jackson County, ha!) than Madgigan had when she ran for AG.
- My Thoughts For Whatever - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 12:30 pm:
When people start looking closely at possible extensions of the Madigan or Daley dynasties it makes Quinn look like a better option for balance.
- wordslinger - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 12:30 pm:
–Rahm will be stumping for Daley, as will Rauner backers after he withdraws from the Republican primary. Lisa has a good-sized warchest right now ($4.3M and counting) but Daley can raise that kind of cash
More importantly this primary could serve as a full-blown test of OFA, which can provide him his street-level and backroom operations. –
DanL, that’s quite a game plan. What kind of personal popularity do Emanuel and a dropped-out Rauner bring to a Dem primary? Translates to how many votes, where?
And since you presume OFA will be all-in for Daley, an Obama endorsement is a given, right?
- Original Rambler - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 1:13 pm:
Mokenavince;
The Daley name is no longer a vote magnet in Chicago. Can’t see police and fire voting for him, and the parking meter fiasco isn’t helping his brother’s legacy. Opponents will not only be able to run against his record, but will also run against his brother’s record.
- And I Approved This Message - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 1:45 pm:
Is it possible Oswego Willy had “his” back to the camera in the photo in the next thread because he actually IS Michael Sneed?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 1:51 pm:
Sneedless to say, you may be on to me.
Natch!
- Northsider - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 1:53 pm:
There is zero chance of OFA backing Billy Daley in the primary. Zero.
- MrJM - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 1:58 pm:
Can I see a show of hands of everyone who’s ever thought, “You know what the problem with the Daleys is: Not enough anger.”
Yeah. I thought so…
– MrJM
- mokenavince - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 5:04 pm:
Daley gets Downstater on as Guv. Lite. Me Thinks Glenn Poshard.
- Arthur Andersen - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 6:24 pm:
Mokenavince, why on Earth would Poshard take a 50% plus pay cut to take the most boring job in State Government? Particularly when he totally cooks his proverbial goose even more with Quinn & Co-not good if the ticket loses.
- steve schnorf - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 6:53 pm:
when Poshard ran I saw S Illinois county primary vote spreads like I had never seen before-he won counties by margins that a Daley or a Kennedy won Chicago precincts
- Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 7:11 pm:
Hmmm…quite a thought-provoking Column to say the leas–wish I had time to say more, though, but we’ll have to leave it at that–gotta scram to go watch the Blackhawks’ latest Quest for the Stanley Cup!!! All I’d say is if the Columnist in the other Post I also have no more time to comment further on is right somehow, and Lisa somehow DOEDN’T go for it?…Daley, despite his ego, major dough, and Family’s clout, will still end up toast in a Q vs. D match-up come next March…!
- Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Jun 24, 13 @ 7:12 pm:
That was meant to read “to say the leasT….”! Ugh!