LIVE session coverage...
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Raoul by the numbers

Monday, Aug 26, 2013

* The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history. Ergo, my Sun-Times column

A debate of sorts is raging about whether state Sen. Kwame Raoul would be a “spoiler” for Bill Daley if Raoul ran for governor.

The assumption is that Raoul, who is black, can’t win, but that he would take away so many African-American votes from Gov. Pat Quinn that Quinn would lose to Daley, who supposedly does so poorly with black voters that a Raoul candidacy wouldn’t hurt him.

I’ve commissioned some polling that should be helpful here.

A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,394 likely Democratic primary voters on July 19 found that Quinn was leading Daley 38-33. In that poll, the governor was getting less than half — 47 percent — of the black vote, while Daley was getting 26 percent, which isn’t bad when you figure that another quarter of the black vote was still up for grabs.

I commissioned yet another poll of 1,528 likely Democratic primary voters on Aug. 6 and added Sen. Raoul’s name into the mix. In that Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, Raoul was identified as a state senator and “an African-American attorney from Chicago.” Daley was identified as a former White House chief of staff and Quinn was identified as the governor.

The results showed Quinn led Daley by four points, 27-23, with Raoul getting 13. The Quinn-vs.-Daley spread barely changed from the July poll, belying the notion, at least so far, that Raoul is an automatic spoiler for Daley. Quinn’s lead over Daley dropped a lot among black Democrats with Raoul in the race, but Quinn went from trailing Daley among whites by two points in July to leading Daley by five when Raoul was put into the mix.

And Raoul’s score of 13 percent right off the bat is pretty darned good, especially considering that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner has spent $2 million on TV and radio ads and is polling at about the same level as Raoul is now.

Why is that? Well, one reason is that history shows black voters tend to support legitimate black candidates, so Raoul doesn’t need to spend huge money to get himself into contention as long as he’s running a solid campaign.

Another big reason can be found in another poll I commissioned on Aug. 12, which found that 48 percent of 1,538 likely Democratic primary voters were dissatisfied with their choice between Quinn and Daley and 9 percent were unsure. So a clear 57 percent majority were either unhappy or ambivalent about the two announced candidates.

Among black Democrats, just 31 percent were satisfied and a huge 57 percent were dissatisfied with their two choices.

It’s pretty obvious that lots of Democrats want somebody else to run, and black Democrats are particularly eager to see another candidate get into the race. If Raoul can satisfy that very clear Democratic hunger for “somebody else,” then he has a real shot at winning.

With the help of most of his Democratic state Senate colleagues throughout the state and Senate President John Cullerton’s fund-raising and campaign infrastructure assistance, I think the numbers we have so far show that Raoul could overcome a somewhat late start and very well win this thing.

And what if Raoul loses and Daley wins? Nobody can totally rule that out. But a June 13 Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,322 likely Democratic primary voters found that just 28 percent of African-Americans approved of Pat Quinn’s job performance, while 40 percent disapproved. Blacks gave Quinn the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval rating of any race or ethnicity. So, African-American Democrats obviously don’t care much for the governor’s tenure anyway.

Thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


12 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:55 am:

    –The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history.–

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November.


  2. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:58 am:

    Good column Rich. I think the problem with most pundits is that they speak from the gut instead of doing any research other than reading other pundits.


  3. - Cassiopeia - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:00 am:

    I think you are spot on the he can win this thing and I think the pension reform will be viewed by the union leadership as a backing away from the more draconian Madigan plan to give them the leeway to support him.

    Then its game on…or pile on Quinn.


  4. - Fed up - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:47 am:

    I don’t like Daley or Quinn, if Raoul can help get a reasonable pension plan advanced he has as good a shot as anyone. He interviews well, much better than Quinn.


  5. - wndycty - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    I just think Kwame gives white progressives and unions an alternative to Quinn that Daley did not. Additionally, I think that his relative youth and background will play very well with younger voters who want to be inspired. There is nothing inspiring about Quinn or Daley. I know many of my fellow commenters might not agree, but Raoul’s presence in the race introduces a certain energy that no other candidate on either side of the ballot could.


  6. - Hank - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:03 am:

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November
    LOL so true. I wonder how “President” Romney is doing these days?


  7. - Ahoy! - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:51 am:

    13% at this point in the game for Raul is really good. If he can get the public sector unions backing him and a couple private sector unions here and there he’s got a legitimate shot.


  8. - dogboy - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:55 am:

    Sen Raul


  9. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:27 am:

    Again, I’ve been saying kwame should run from the moment Lisa dropped out. He should run. He could win.


  10. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:39 am:

    Raoul’s path is going to depend on whether he can come up with a pension reduction plan that will be satisfactory to the public worker unions.


  11. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 12:13 pm:

    Sorry Norseman, the state constitution forbids “pension reduction”, i.e., diminishing or impairing pension benefits. No matter who proposes it.


  12. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    I’m not sorry, I’ve been saying it until I’m blue in the face.

    We’re dealing with the post on Raoul’s path to the Governor’s mansion.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * ASUS reportedly to unveil selfie-serving new Zenphone at Computex
        * Create atoms but don’t destroy the universe in new Android game Atomas
        * Google Android M multi-window, 2K Sony Xperias, iPhone SMS fix & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Tactile is another addictive interactive puzzle game
        * Train wizards and sorcerers in Schools of Magic Android game
        * Race your way to the finish line with Mini Racing Adventures
        * Customizing Android: how to install an icon pack on any device

        * iiyama’s New Windows 8.1 Tablet With Intel Atom Processor
        * Get Mouse Computer’s Latest 11.6-Inch Notebook With 128GB SSD
        * Stay Safe On The Road With Novatek’s New Full HD Mini Car DVR
        * 'Minecraft' creators to compete in the first annual 'Builder Bowl'
        * Cricket Wireless Releases ZTE Overture 2 4G LTE-Enabled Android 5.0 Smartphone
        * Cloudy skies give Manhattanhenge photos a Monet-like feel
        * US Reportedly Launched Stuxnet Attack Against North Korea

        * White Sox to rely on Webb out of bullpen
        * Rodon subdues Astros with renewed focus
        * Soto ends deadlock in 11th to complete rally
        * Soto ends deadlock in 11th to complete rally
        * White Sox aim for series win behind Quintana
        * Abreu likely out Saturday with finger injury
        * White Sox 6, Astros 3 (11 innings): Backup plans come to the forefront

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * And now it's Hastert. When will it ever end?..
        * Hastert case assigned to Judge Thomas Durkin..
        * Emanuel finally unveils plan to fund police, fi.....
        * Voice of The Southern: Thumbs up, thumbs down..
        * 2nd man comes forward with accusation against H.....
        * Rauner won't call special session to reach budg.....


        * AP source: Hastert paid to keep old sex abuse claims secret
        * House records show Schock reimbursed US $122,590
        * House records show Schock reimbursed US $122,590
        * Legislature advances plan to help Chicago fund pensions
        * Gay conversion therapy ban heads to Illinois governor's desk
        * Latest on Hastert: Boehner 'shocked' by reports
        * Impasse between Rauner, Democrats continues over budget
        * Settlement clears way for Kokomo baseball home opener
        * Union legislation would prohibit strike or Rauner lockout
        * 1st positive test for West Nile virus in Illinois in 2015

        * Rauner won't call special session to reach budget agreement, wants action by Sunday
        * House passes bill separating Lincoln museum from Historic Preservation
        * Legislation to prohibit union strike, Rauner lockout gets House approval
        * Rauner won't call special session to reach budget agreement
        * Conversion therapy ban heads to Rauner's desk
        * Legislation to prohibit union strike or Rauner lockout gets House approval
        * House passes bill separating ALPLM from Historic Preservation
        * House OKs plan to make Lincoln Library and Museum its own state agency
        * Illinois Capitol statue of Dennis Hastert on hold
        * Legislative leaders say Rauner's Turnaround Agenda still on table

        * Emanuel finally unveils plan to fund police, fire pensions
        * Buyer linked to George Lucas buys condo for $18.8 million
        * Everything you need to know about the Hastert indictment
        * For Desiree Rogers, the campaign to fight cancer is personal
        * Happy 90th birthday, Lester Crown


          * Former Speaker Hastert's federal pension not in danger
          * Emanuel's police, fire pension plan clears first hurdle at Capitol
          * Cops: Relative of mother, son found dead in SW Side home being questioned
          * Man killed in rollover crash in Lake County
          * Ex-Bull Brunson not guilty of sex abuse charges
          * This season's first positive test for West Nile detected in St. Clair County
          * Blame game, political jockeying as overtime looms for Rauner, Madigan
          * New Cook County court aims to treat prostitutes more like victims
          * Ex-Yorkville school chief recalls no misconduct complaints against Hastert
          * Illinois lawmakers send Rauner ban on gay conversion therapy for minors


          * Bears release Ray McDonald after domestic violence arrest in California
          * Ex-US House speaker's indictment offers few clues about case
          * Chicago school board to consider charter relocations, renewals
          * Ex-US Speaker Hastert indicted on bank-related charges
          * Vets' best friend: Two veterans trekking cross-country with the dogs that 'saved their lives'
          * After pig farm raises a stink, Hoosiers debate rural-city divide
          * City planners and neighborhood residents map out Chinatown’s future
          * City planners and neighborhood residents map out Chinatown's future
          * Nebraska repeals death penalty, but U.S. isn't quite ready to abandon it
          * FIFA officials arrested on charges of bribery and corruption


          * Rauner won't call special session to reach budget agreement, wants action by Sunday
          * Kim Harber: Rural Illinoisans deserve modern tech rules
          * Charles Krauthammer: Why doctors quit
          * House passes bill separating Lincoln museum from Historic Preservation
          * Legislation to prohibit union strike, Rauner lockout gets House approval
          * Conversion therapy ban heads to Rauner's desk
          * Illinois Capitol statue of Dennis Hastert on hold
          * Esther Cepeda: How sincere is Clinton's Latino outreach?
          * Rauner agenda bills defeated in committee
          * Our Opinion: What's next, Springfield? More jobs, please


          * Open Line
          * Top honors
          * Police Beat
          * Reception planned for new MacMurray president
          * Illowa Sports Flyers aviation meeting
          * Tennis block party at West High school
          * Bent River Community Credit Union announces the Freedom Tree food drive
          * Names & Faces 05/30/15
          * Sabers' magical run to title ends in semifinal
          * Baseball off to great tournament start


          * Buehrle, Blue Jays rally past Twins 6-4 on Colabello homer
          * Lackey K's 9, Cardinals beat Dodgers 3-0 for 5th in row
          * Report: Hastert was trying to conceal sexual abuse of student
          * Lightning strike: Tampa Bay beats Rangers, will play for Cup
          * Images: Barrington High School graduation

          * U.S. Steel won’t shut down as planned
          * Democrats hope for Hillary Clinton coattails
          * Rigell, Duckworth propse easing access to ...
          * Illinois dialysis patients threatened by p...
          * Congressmen Prepare Steel Bills
          * Davis talks drones, economic development i...
          * Andrea Zopp makes Senate run official
          * U.S. Steel won’t shut down as planned
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * WWII veteran hopes to receive 'Medal of Ho...

          * Hastert case assigned to Judge Thomas Durkin...
          * EPA's new ethanol standards cut short...
          * Durbin discusses safety concerns with trai......
          * Taking Sexual Assault Seriously: The Rape ......

          * Hastert 'misconduct' involves sexual abuse......
          * Hastert case assigned to Judge Thomas Durkin...
          * Hastert rose to speakership among the scan......
          * Senate bill targets perks of former presid......
          * Hastert's speakership began and ended amid......

          * Women protested against Gov. Bruce Rauner's proposed budget cuts on Thursday
          * Chicago Higher Schoolers Hold Climate Action Rally
          * Report: High School Grad Rate Stagnant In Illinois
          * ACLU, Tea Party Patriots Form Alliance In Debate Over Patriot Act Provisions
          * 'Bare-Bones' Illinois Mental Health System Can't Afford Further Cuts, Advocates Say
          * Chicago High Schoolers Rally For Climate Action, Illinois Clean Jobs Bill (VIDEO)
          * A sex scandal? How will it stick! How unfortunate that it will do so
          * “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
          * Paper Chronicles Another Costly Parking Privatization Failure
          * Catholic Citizens for Life launches calls in opposition to SB1564


          * Honoring Illinois' Fallen - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff from Sunrise, Monday, June 1, 2015 until Sunset, Wednesday, June 3, 2015.
          * First West Nile Virus Positive Mosquito in Illinois for 2015 Reported
          * Celebrate National 529 Day with a College Illinois!® Savings Plan - Enrollment Open Through June 1st
          * State Announces Business Resource Event Coming to Aurora - ‘Make a Connection’ networking and resource program promotes economic growth of small and diverse businesses
          * Gulf War Veteran Reports for Duty as IDVA Women Vets Coordinator, Vet Business Champion




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller