SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Raoul by the numbers

Monday, Aug 26, 2013

* The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history. Ergo, my Sun-Times column

A debate of sorts is raging about whether state Sen. Kwame Raoul would be a “spoiler” for Bill Daley if Raoul ran for governor.

The assumption is that Raoul, who is black, can’t win, but that he would take away so many African-American votes from Gov. Pat Quinn that Quinn would lose to Daley, who supposedly does so poorly with black voters that a Raoul candidacy wouldn’t hurt him.

I’ve commissioned some polling that should be helpful here.

A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,394 likely Democratic primary voters on July 19 found that Quinn was leading Daley 38-33. In that poll, the governor was getting less than half — 47 percent — of the black vote, while Daley was getting 26 percent, which isn’t bad when you figure that another quarter of the black vote was still up for grabs.

I commissioned yet another poll of 1,528 likely Democratic primary voters on Aug. 6 and added Sen. Raoul’s name into the mix. In that Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, Raoul was identified as a state senator and “an African-American attorney from Chicago.” Daley was identified as a former White House chief of staff and Quinn was identified as the governor.

The results showed Quinn led Daley by four points, 27-23, with Raoul getting 13. The Quinn-vs.-Daley spread barely changed from the July poll, belying the notion, at least so far, that Raoul is an automatic spoiler for Daley. Quinn’s lead over Daley dropped a lot among black Democrats with Raoul in the race, but Quinn went from trailing Daley among whites by two points in July to leading Daley by five when Raoul was put into the mix.

And Raoul’s score of 13 percent right off the bat is pretty darned good, especially considering that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner has spent $2 million on TV and radio ads and is polling at about the same level as Raoul is now.

Why is that? Well, one reason is that history shows black voters tend to support legitimate black candidates, so Raoul doesn’t need to spend huge money to get himself into contention as long as he’s running a solid campaign.

Another big reason can be found in another poll I commissioned on Aug. 12, which found that 48 percent of 1,538 likely Democratic primary voters were dissatisfied with their choice between Quinn and Daley and 9 percent were unsure. So a clear 57 percent majority were either unhappy or ambivalent about the two announced candidates.

Among black Democrats, just 31 percent were satisfied and a huge 57 percent were dissatisfied with their two choices.

It’s pretty obvious that lots of Democrats want somebody else to run, and black Democrats are particularly eager to see another candidate get into the race. If Raoul can satisfy that very clear Democratic hunger for “somebody else,” then he has a real shot at winning.

With the help of most of his Democratic state Senate colleagues throughout the state and Senate President John Cullerton’s fund-raising and campaign infrastructure assistance, I think the numbers we have so far show that Raoul could overcome a somewhat late start and very well win this thing.

And what if Raoul loses and Daley wins? Nobody can totally rule that out. But a June 13 Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,322 likely Democratic primary voters found that just 28 percent of African-Americans approved of Pat Quinn’s job performance, while 40 percent disapproved. Blacks gave Quinn the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval rating of any race or ethnicity. So, African-American Democrats obviously don’t care much for the governor’s tenure anyway.

Thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


12 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:55 am:

    –The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history.–

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November.


  2. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:58 am:

    Good column Rich. I think the problem with most pundits is that they speak from the gut instead of doing any research other than reading other pundits.


  3. - Cassiopeia - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:00 am:

    I think you are spot on the he can win this thing and I think the pension reform will be viewed by the union leadership as a backing away from the more draconian Madigan plan to give them the leeway to support him.

    Then its game on…or pile on Quinn.


  4. - Fed up - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:47 am:

    I don’t like Daley or Quinn, if Raoul can help get a reasonable pension plan advanced he has as good a shot as anyone. He interviews well, much better than Quinn.


  5. - wndycty - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    I just think Kwame gives white progressives and unions an alternative to Quinn that Daley did not. Additionally, I think that his relative youth and background will play very well with younger voters who want to be inspired. There is nothing inspiring about Quinn or Daley. I know many of my fellow commenters might not agree, but Raoul’s presence in the race introduces a certain energy that no other candidate on either side of the ballot could.


  6. - Hank - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:03 am:

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November
    LOL so true. I wonder how “President” Romney is doing these days?


  7. - Ahoy! - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:51 am:

    13% at this point in the game for Raul is really good. If he can get the public sector unions backing him and a couple private sector unions here and there he’s got a legitimate shot.


  8. - dogboy - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:55 am:

    Sen Raul


  9. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:27 am:

    Again, I’ve been saying kwame should run from the moment Lisa dropped out. He should run. He could win.


  10. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:39 am:

    Raoul’s path is going to depend on whether he can come up with a pension reduction plan that will be satisfactory to the public worker unions.


  11. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 12:13 pm:

    Sorry Norseman, the state constitution forbids “pension reduction”, i.e., diminishing or impairing pension benefits. No matter who proposes it.


  12. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    I’m not sorry, I’ve been saying it until I’m blue in the face.

    We’re dealing with the post on Raoul’s path to the Governor’s mansion.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Cable TV buys
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Rauner vetoes several social service bills
* Ok, that's enough
* I truly hate this US Senate race
* Rauner signs life insurance bill
* Question of the day
* State bond sale goes well, but still paid a higher price
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Picking on the little guys
* We've been a sorry state for a long time
* Munger and Mendoza face off in hostile debate
* I'm still befuddled by this move
* *** UPDATED x5 - Motion approved - Noven to withdraw - $421 million budget hit - One appointee appears to be ineligible - The plot thickens as three new board members appointed *** Controversy expected at TRS hearing today
* React to remap reform ruling
* Divided court kicks remap reform off ballot
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* The flagship is dead, long live the new flagship
* Lenovo Yoga Tab 3 Plus 10 expected at IFA 2016
* Eighth beta for Apple software out for devs, seventh iOS 10 beta for public
* China’s Galaxy Note 7, the same as everyone else’s — 4GB RAM, 64GB storage
* Google Wallet debuts automatic transfers so you can skip “cashing out”
* Android 7.0 factory images are live for most Nexus devices
* Sony Xperia X Compact and Xperia XR specs revealed

* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs
* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs
* Sox offense unloads as everyone chips in
* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs
* Rodon, Walker duel to wrap Sox homestand
* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs
* Sox topple Seattle on Quintana's gem, 4 HRs

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Tom Kacich: 13th Congressional District a breat.....
* Union money contaminates Springfield..
* Judge Rules on Internet Infrastructure – Alton .....
* Editorial: We must not surrender to Illinois ‘t.....
* Governor Bruce Rauner Stops at IL State Fairgro.....


* 2 Chicago men charged in shooting of NBA star Wade's cousin
* Enrollment up at other Missouri universities as MU drops
* Ohio chief justice on court impacts, roles in drug epidemic
* Studies: Illinois' fixed-tuition law drives up others' costs
* Studies: Illinois' fixed-tuition law drives up others' costs
* University of Illinois game time texting system rarely used
* Northwest Indiana airports fight aviation downturn
* EXCHANGE: Labrador ready to help victims of child abuse
* EXCHANGE: Presidential museum gets rare Lincoln biography
* Elections board appeals ruling on independent candidate

* Despite budget warnings from Rauner, TRS board votes to lower investment estimates
* Progress on U.S. 67 sputters due to lack of funds
* New law makes insurance companies find, pay beneficiaries
* Decatur woman can petition to become nurse under new law
* Illinois redistricting referendum won't appear on ballot
* Comptroller hopefuls argue independence from Madigan, Rauner
* Springfield-area jobless rate remains lowest in Illinois
* Illinois 'Obamacare' health insurance rates up significantly
* Rauner's office warns teachers' pension change could be 'devastating'

* What do you get for $2,000 in rent?
* Cubs stars growing too big for Chicago market
* Warehouses are sexy all of a sudden. Here's why.
* How Macy's retreat is affecting this REIT's fortunes
* What's not to like about Obamacare? Plenty in Illinois


* Steinberg: The South Side is best, at least doughnut-wise
* Kapos: CEO hopes fans warm to Guaranteed Rate’s name
* Man shot, critically wounded in South Loop
* Man shot in Park Manor
* Two men charged with fatally shooting Nykea Aldridge
* 2 men charged in fatal shooting of Nykea Aldridge, Wade’s cousin
* Stone Lab: The Science and Beauty of Lake Erie
* Police warn of Wicker Park break-ins, attempted sexual assaults
* Man shot in Hermosa
* 3 shot in Gresham


* Two brothers charged in shooting death of Dwyane Wade's cousin
* Billionaire who donated to Clinton Foundation was denied entry into U.S. last year
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 8/28/16
* Trump stand-ins struggle to speak for and defend nominee
* German economy minister says EU-U.S. trade talks have failed
* It was a union for the ages, until it wasn't. Is Europe lost?
* Sen. Joni Ernst tries to rise with Donald Trump by her side
* Turkish-backed rebels seize villages in Syria; 35 killed in airstrikes
* Italy to see if building negligence raised earthquake death toll; 291 dead
* Man shot to death in South Loop alley


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Angie Muhs: The ups and downs of online comments
* Bernard Schoenburg: Davis, GOP quick to attack independent Gill
* Statehouse Insider: Do we hafta put all of that money into pensions?
* Their View: Fair maps shouldn't be victims of partisanship
* Raising awareness to end domestic violence
* Mom's legacy lives on through fund
* Despite budget warnings from Rauner, TRS board votes to lower investment estimates
* Progress on U.S. 67 sputters due to lack of funds
* New law makes insurance companies find, pay beneficiaries
* Charles Krauthammer: The bribery standard


* Daily Digest 8/28/16
* Divorces
* PFOP: Bloomington painter wowed, swindled Chicago’s high society
* Communities work to provide a playground for children
* New wave: Normal Township senior center exceeds expectations
* UI Library system has so much more to check out than books
* Rob Kanter/Environmental Almanac: Our residence has gone solar
* Art Beat: Powerful exhibitions
* Ted Kooser: An American Life in Poetry, Aug. 28, 2016
* Chuck Koplinski: Director, actor discuss challenging project


* Bills Ryan says standing for anthem pays respect to military
* 'Don't Breathe' scores, ousts 'Suicide Squad' at box office
* Few contenders, more pretenders in NFC
* Dallas police squelch critics, questions about sniper attack
* Turkish president vows to 'destroy terrorists'

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Des Plaines Gets $11.4 Million To Purchase......

* Kirk wants to widend locks, dams on Illino......
* Duckworth outlines principles for immigrat......

* Illinois home prices increase in July; Sales lower amid tight inventory
* Kinney serves as liaison to United Kingdom
* CAR dedicates memorial to Maner, the association’s first African-American president
* QCARA members brush up on their painting skills at Habitat for Humanity project
* Illinois REALTORS® named to key NAR committee posts
* CAR Global Council panel discussion encourages understanding of different cultures
* NAR offers video about Aug. 29 drone rule changes
* NAR foundation will donate up to $350K in Louisiana flood assistance
* Video explains what you need to know about Chicago property tax increases
* At a glance: Poll shows seniors worried about property taxes


* Statement on Redistricting Referendum
* Rauner Administration Takes Action to Help Illinoisans Find Lost Life Insurance Money
* Illinois Residents Encouraged to Register for ‘The Great ShakeOut’ Earthquake Drill - 'Drop, Cover and Hold On’ Drill Set for October 20
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Seeking Flexibility to Improve Delivery of Behavioral Health Care




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller