SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Raoul by the numbers

Monday, Aug 26, 2013

* The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history. Ergo, my Sun-Times column

A debate of sorts is raging about whether state Sen. Kwame Raoul would be a “spoiler” for Bill Daley if Raoul ran for governor.

The assumption is that Raoul, who is black, can’t win, but that he would take away so many African-American votes from Gov. Pat Quinn that Quinn would lose to Daley, who supposedly does so poorly with black voters that a Raoul candidacy wouldn’t hurt him.

I’ve commissioned some polling that should be helpful here.

A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,394 likely Democratic primary voters on July 19 found that Quinn was leading Daley 38-33. In that poll, the governor was getting less than half — 47 percent — of the black vote, while Daley was getting 26 percent, which isn’t bad when you figure that another quarter of the black vote was still up for grabs.

I commissioned yet another poll of 1,528 likely Democratic primary voters on Aug. 6 and added Sen. Raoul’s name into the mix. In that Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, Raoul was identified as a state senator and “an African-American attorney from Chicago.” Daley was identified as a former White House chief of staff and Quinn was identified as the governor.

The results showed Quinn led Daley by four points, 27-23, with Raoul getting 13. The Quinn-vs.-Daley spread barely changed from the July poll, belying the notion, at least so far, that Raoul is an automatic spoiler for Daley. Quinn’s lead over Daley dropped a lot among black Democrats with Raoul in the race, but Quinn went from trailing Daley among whites by two points in July to leading Daley by five when Raoul was put into the mix.

And Raoul’s score of 13 percent right off the bat is pretty darned good, especially considering that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner has spent $2 million on TV and radio ads and is polling at about the same level as Raoul is now.

Why is that? Well, one reason is that history shows black voters tend to support legitimate black candidates, so Raoul doesn’t need to spend huge money to get himself into contention as long as he’s running a solid campaign.

Another big reason can be found in another poll I commissioned on Aug. 12, which found that 48 percent of 1,538 likely Democratic primary voters were dissatisfied with their choice between Quinn and Daley and 9 percent were unsure. So a clear 57 percent majority were either unhappy or ambivalent about the two announced candidates.

Among black Democrats, just 31 percent were satisfied and a huge 57 percent were dissatisfied with their two choices.

It’s pretty obvious that lots of Democrats want somebody else to run, and black Democrats are particularly eager to see another candidate get into the race. If Raoul can satisfy that very clear Democratic hunger for “somebody else,” then he has a real shot at winning.

With the help of most of his Democratic state Senate colleagues throughout the state and Senate President John Cullerton’s fund-raising and campaign infrastructure assistance, I think the numbers we have so far show that Raoul could overcome a somewhat late start and very well win this thing.

And what if Raoul loses and Daley wins? Nobody can totally rule that out. But a June 13 Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,322 likely Democratic primary voters found that just 28 percent of African-Americans approved of Pat Quinn’s job performance, while 40 percent disapproved. Blacks gave Quinn the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval rating of any race or ethnicity. So, African-American Democrats obviously don’t care much for the governor’s tenure anyway.

Thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


12 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:55 am:

    –The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history.–

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November.


  2. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:58 am:

    Good column Rich. I think the problem with most pundits is that they speak from the gut instead of doing any research other than reading other pundits.


  3. - Cassiopeia - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:00 am:

    I think you are spot on the he can win this thing and I think the pension reform will be viewed by the union leadership as a backing away from the more draconian Madigan plan to give them the leeway to support him.

    Then its game on…or pile on Quinn.


  4. - Fed up - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:47 am:

    I don’t like Daley or Quinn, if Raoul can help get a reasonable pension plan advanced he has as good a shot as anyone. He interviews well, much better than Quinn.


  5. - wndycty - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    I just think Kwame gives white progressives and unions an alternative to Quinn that Daley did not. Additionally, I think that his relative youth and background will play very well with younger voters who want to be inspired. There is nothing inspiring about Quinn or Daley. I know many of my fellow commenters might not agree, but Raoul’s presence in the race introduces a certain energy that no other candidate on either side of the ballot could.


  6. - Hank - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:03 am:

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November
    LOL so true. I wonder how “President” Romney is doing these days?


  7. - Ahoy! - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:51 am:

    13% at this point in the game for Raul is really good. If he can get the public sector unions backing him and a couple private sector unions here and there he’s got a legitimate shot.


  8. - dogboy - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:55 am:

    Sen Raul


  9. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:27 am:

    Again, I’ve been saying kwame should run from the moment Lisa dropped out. He should run. He could win.


  10. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:39 am:

    Raoul’s path is going to depend on whether he can come up with a pension reduction plan that will be satisfactory to the public worker unions.


  11. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 12:13 pm:

    Sorry Norseman, the state constitution forbids “pension reduction”, i.e., diminishing or impairing pension benefits. No matter who proposes it.


  12. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    I’m not sorry, I’ve been saying it until I’m blue in the face.

    We’re dealing with the post on Raoul’s path to the Governor’s mansion.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Delegation goes to bat for Exelon
* Question of the day
* Reach out and touch someone
* *** UPDATED x1 *** "Downton Abbey" story was no random thing
* Most suburban towns could survive a year of state cuts
* Editorial: "Don't fall for Exelon bailout"
* The consequences of cuts
* It's just a bill, but it's interesting
* Martin’s Story: A Medical Error Changed Everything
* SDems upset GOPs by advancing partial FY 15 fix
* Forby asks AG Madigan for formal opinion on right to work zones
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* Rate hizzoner's new humble pie TV ad
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Apple postpones production of larger-display iPads
        * YU coming out with 2nd smartphone dubbed “Project Caesar”
        * Kodi/XBMC app now does auto updating, no need for sideloading
        * Caviar app now available in Android for your food delivery needs
        * Uber partners with Fuhu, adds nabi 2 tablets to uberFAMILY rides
        * Even With Delays, Building A 12.9-Inch iPad Could Be The Easy Part
        * MWC 2015 daily wrap-up: Day 3

        * 12-inch MacBook Air Will Most Likely See A June Launch [Rumor]
        * 2030: How 4 smart cities are gearing up for the future
        * Blair Antenna and Access Holcutter
        * T-Mobile Rolling Out Android 5.0 Lollipop for the Galaxy Note 3
        * Duang: The word with no meaning that broke the Internet in China
        * EA Shuts Down Maxis
        * SunEdison acquires battery project startup Solar Grid Storage

        * Konerko humbled by Lifetime Achievement Award
        * Anderson focused on becoming top-notch shortstop
        * Putnam preparing for season with new perspective
        * Quintana comfortable, efficient in White Sox rotation
        * Alexei's 3 RBIs spark White Sox in spring opener
        * Hahn's plan to reshape White Sox slow to boil
        * Minnie was an icon for black fans in Midwest

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * As he seeks Wilson's runoff endorsement, Mayor .....
        * ISS forms budget task force against Rauner prop.....
        * Medicaid cuts seen as possible budget fix..
        * Rauner cuts hit anti-bullying programs..
        * Three Senate seats change hands after ASG reapp.....
        * Debate on how to fix budget shortfalls takes ne.....
        * Garcia: Maybe Emanuel And Rauner Should Fix Bud.....


        * Illinois man gets 12 years for selling heroin
        * 1 killed in blaze at Rolling Meadows apartment building
        * Sleet, snow pummel Evansville area
        * Court monitor says IDOT should clean house on hiring rules
        * Bankrupt Caesars unit gets court's OK to use cash, for now
        * Family of man killed by Chicago police sues the city
        * Chicago mayor says state budget is 'wrong approach'
        * Judge grants delay of medical marijuana permit in Kankakee
        * Girl, 15, gets juvenile prison until 21 in sibling's death
        * Illinois medical marijuana patients now number 1,600

        * Court monitor says IDOT should clean house on hiring rules
        * Senate President Cullerton: We're not stalling
        * Judge grants delay of medical marijuana permit in Kankakee
        * State's medical marijuana patients now number 1,600
        * Illinois hires firm to evaluate shuttered Eagle Creek Resort
        * Committee approves plan to plug some budget holes
        * Local men plead guilty to stealing millions from Illinois EPA
        * State superintendent warns of 'perfect storm' for school districts
        * Committee to consider plan for plugging budget holes
        * New state lawmaker Butler officially sworn in

        * AbbVie buying cancer drug maker Pharmacyclics for $21 billion
        * IDOT should clean house on hiring rules, court monitor says
        * Wisconsin committee passes Walker-backed bill targeting labor
        * Could Fido and Fluffy be your Amtrak seatmates?
        * Talks to end oil workers' strike to resume next week


          * Police warn of armed robberies in Bronzeville
          * 1 dead in 3-alarm blaze in Rolling Meadows
          * Notre Dame's Hesburgh remembered for his acts of kindness
          * Mom of slain Urban Prep student: 'Can you please put a sheet over him?'
          * Lake Superior ice caves to reopen after temporary closure
          * Emanuel tries to score points with Rauner attack
          * Two picked to build Chicago-area car-charging stations charged with fraud
          * Naperville bar stabbing victim can't recall details on witness stand
          * Wisconsin woman accused of Facebook chatting before crash that killed 3 children
          * Cook County judge halts medical marijuana license


          * Bedrock 66 Live! Features Celtic And Psychedelic Rock
          * "Don't Get Used To This" Breezy Budget Hearing
          * Lawmaker Suggests Eliminating Tuition Waivers For University Employees' Children
          * Profitable Exelon Seeks Legislation To Save Unprofitable Nuclear Plants
          * Let's Talk Kids - "A Future President"
          * Sexting Laws Could Be Added to School Handbooks
          * McDonalds to phase out chicken raised with certain antibiotics
          * Illinois Hires Firm To Evaluate Shuttered Eagle Creek Resort
          * Combat Vets Recreate Lincoln's Hearse
          * 2015 Budget - CapitolView


          * Bernard Schoenburg: Butler will listen to many before taking tough votes
          * Rep. Mark Batinick: Illinois can find savings in workers' comp reforms
          * George Will: Stopping the IRS
          * Eugene Robinson: Boehner's sorry spectacle
          * Court monitor says IDOT should clean house on hiring rules
          * Senate President Cullerton: We're not stalling
          * Judge grants delay of medical marijuana permit in Kankakee
          * State's medical marijuana patients now number 1,600
          * Illinois hires firm to evaluate shuttered Eagle Creek Resort
          * Our Opinion: Conquering stress, burnout important for all


          * Education, entertainment hand in hand
          * Chilly dogs
          * Fling: In Brief
          * Donald Clark
          * Vernon Melvin
          * Gloria Wiggins
          * Wilma Upton
          * John 'Zeke' Schwinn
          * Johnnie Brown
          * Jessie Phelps


          * Cyprus group claims responsibility for 2 referee bombings
          * Cornel West cancels speech at U of Illinois over Salaita
          * More than 4,100 register scooters under new Indiana law
          * Richmond officer appeals demotion for handcuffing man to bed
          * Loss of FEMA grants in stadium dispute ripples across state

          * How local lawmakers voted on Homeland Secu...
          * DC NEWS JUNKIE | Bill Aims to Keep Guns Fr...
          * Bost support of comp time bill has comment...
          * Giffords backs background checks for gun b...
          * Rep. Rodney Davis and Rep. Mike Bost: Stro...
          * Bill would close background-check loopholes
          * Lincoln Day Dinner for Jackson County Repu...
          * Area congressmen lobby hard for nuclear in...
          * Gabby Giffords Returns to Capitol Hill to ...
          * Bost: Future industrial workers getting tr...

          * Stopping the IRS...
          * Congressional Dems want to 'shift the focu......
          * George Will: Stopping the IRS...
          * Will: Stopping the IRS...
          * Will: IRS has a pattern of corruption...

          * Cheap oil won't change Iran's stance on a ......
          * Cheap oil won't sway Iran's stance on a nu......
          * Day of partisan tensions as Netanyahu speaks...
          * Despite Netanyahu claim, cheap oil not see......

          * How did Illinois' congressional delegation vote on last week's DHS measure?
          * Peters blasts Democrat response to Netanyahu speech
          * Why I think Judy would be “crying” at political partisanship done in her name
          * Juan Salgado, Executive Director Of Instituto del Progreso Latino
          * DOJ: No Charges Filed Against Darren Wilson; Ferguson Police Blatantly Racist
          * Municipal employees pack the hall for Chuy on the northwest side.
          * Meegan Files Lawsuit For Recount In Chicago's 33rd Ward Race
          * McDonald's To Curb Use Of Antibiotics In Chicken Food Supply
          * U.S. Supreme Hears Oral Arguments In Obamacare Subsidies Case
          * U.S. Supreme Court Hears Oral Arguments In Obamacare Subsidies Case


          * IEMA Urges People to Prepare for Severe Weather - Tornadoes, floods and severe storms can happen any time of year
          * IDHS helps more than 5,000 individuals with disabilities find jobs - Program offers necessary tools to earn a living wage and become more independent
          * 24th Anniversary Desert Storm Remembrance Ceremony
          * Illinois Department of Human Rights Announces 2015 Spring Training Schedule
          * Snow and Freezing Rain to Impact Travel in Illinois - IDOT Crews Prepared to Battle Winter Weather this Weekend




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller