SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Raoul by the numbers

Monday, Aug 26, 2013

* The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history. Ergo, my Sun-Times column

A debate of sorts is raging about whether state Sen. Kwame Raoul would be a “spoiler” for Bill Daley if Raoul ran for governor.

The assumption is that Raoul, who is black, can’t win, but that he would take away so many African-American votes from Gov. Pat Quinn that Quinn would lose to Daley, who supposedly does so poorly with black voters that a Raoul candidacy wouldn’t hurt him.

I’ve commissioned some polling that should be helpful here.

A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,394 likely Democratic primary voters on July 19 found that Quinn was leading Daley 38-33. In that poll, the governor was getting less than half — 47 percent — of the black vote, while Daley was getting 26 percent, which isn’t bad when you figure that another quarter of the black vote was still up for grabs.

I commissioned yet another poll of 1,528 likely Democratic primary voters on Aug. 6 and added Sen. Raoul’s name into the mix. In that Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, Raoul was identified as a state senator and “an African-American attorney from Chicago.” Daley was identified as a former White House chief of staff and Quinn was identified as the governor.

The results showed Quinn led Daley by four points, 27-23, with Raoul getting 13. The Quinn-vs.-Daley spread barely changed from the July poll, belying the notion, at least so far, that Raoul is an automatic spoiler for Daley. Quinn’s lead over Daley dropped a lot among black Democrats with Raoul in the race, but Quinn went from trailing Daley among whites by two points in July to leading Daley by five when Raoul was put into the mix.

And Raoul’s score of 13 percent right off the bat is pretty darned good, especially considering that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner has spent $2 million on TV and radio ads and is polling at about the same level as Raoul is now.

Why is that? Well, one reason is that history shows black voters tend to support legitimate black candidates, so Raoul doesn’t need to spend huge money to get himself into contention as long as he’s running a solid campaign.

Another big reason can be found in another poll I commissioned on Aug. 12, which found that 48 percent of 1,538 likely Democratic primary voters were dissatisfied with their choice between Quinn and Daley and 9 percent were unsure. So a clear 57 percent majority were either unhappy or ambivalent about the two announced candidates.

Among black Democrats, just 31 percent were satisfied and a huge 57 percent were dissatisfied with their two choices.

It’s pretty obvious that lots of Democrats want somebody else to run, and black Democrats are particularly eager to see another candidate get into the race. If Raoul can satisfy that very clear Democratic hunger for “somebody else,” then he has a real shot at winning.

With the help of most of his Democratic state Senate colleagues throughout the state and Senate President John Cullerton’s fund-raising and campaign infrastructure assistance, I think the numbers we have so far show that Raoul could overcome a somewhat late start and very well win this thing.

And what if Raoul loses and Daley wins? Nobody can totally rule that out. But a June 13 Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,322 likely Democratic primary voters found that just 28 percent of African-Americans approved of Pat Quinn’s job performance, while 40 percent disapproved. Blacks gave Quinn the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval rating of any race or ethnicity. So, African-American Democrats obviously don’t care much for the governor’s tenure anyway.

Thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


12 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:55 am:

    –The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history.–

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November.


  2. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:58 am:

    Good column Rich. I think the problem with most pundits is that they speak from the gut instead of doing any research other than reading other pundits.


  3. - Cassiopeia - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:00 am:

    I think you are spot on the he can win this thing and I think the pension reform will be viewed by the union leadership as a backing away from the more draconian Madigan plan to give them the leeway to support him.

    Then its game on…or pile on Quinn.


  4. - Fed up - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:47 am:

    I don’t like Daley or Quinn, if Raoul can help get a reasonable pension plan advanced he has as good a shot as anyone. He interviews well, much better than Quinn.


  5. - wndycty - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    I just think Kwame gives white progressives and unions an alternative to Quinn that Daley did not. Additionally, I think that his relative youth and background will play very well with younger voters who want to be inspired. There is nothing inspiring about Quinn or Daley. I know many of my fellow commenters might not agree, but Raoul’s presence in the race introduces a certain energy that no other candidate on either side of the ballot could.


  6. - Hank - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:03 am:

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November
    LOL so true. I wonder how “President” Romney is doing these days?


  7. - Ahoy! - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:51 am:

    13% at this point in the game for Raul is really good. If he can get the public sector unions backing him and a couple private sector unions here and there he’s got a legitimate shot.


  8. - dogboy - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:55 am:

    Sen Raul


  9. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:27 am:

    Again, I’ve been saying kwame should run from the moment Lisa dropped out. He should run. He could win.


  10. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:39 am:

    Raoul’s path is going to depend on whether he can come up with a pension reduction plan that will be satisfactory to the public worker unions.


  11. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 12:13 pm:

    Sorry Norseman, the state constitution forbids “pension reduction”, i.e., diminishing or impairing pension benefits. No matter who proposes it.


  12. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    I’m not sorry, I’ve been saying it until I’m blue in the face.

    We’re dealing with the post on Raoul’s path to the Governor’s mansion.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Afternoon updates
* Question of the Day
* #AOLhacked
* GOP Leaders are "Nay" to Obama library
* Reilly talks up TIF changes over prop tax
* Morning Shorts
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * T-Mobile bribes BlackBerry users to switch to a Samsung Galaxy S5
        * Samsung Galaxy S5 now supported by TWRP recovery
        * Withings Pules O2 tracks blood oxygen and sleep
        * AT&T first quarter revenues highest in two years
        * Rocki Transforms Old Speakers Into Smartphone-Ready Audio Devices
        * Samsung is failing to draw users into its contents and apps says study
        * Humble Mobile Bundle 5 sweetens the deal with three more titles

        * Microsoft Hotline Helps Entrepreneurs in India Build Tech Startups
        * NYPD Twitter Effort Ends Up As A Disaster
        * Hitachi Eyes World’s Fastest Lift In China
        * Theatrhythm Final Fantasy Curtain Call Confirmed
        * ‘Speed’ Movie Recreated On Twitter
        * Research On Facebook Unfriending Impact
        * Apple Fixes Heartbleed Bug In Latest Wi-Fi Routers

        * Rienzo tasked with slowing Detroit's powerful lineup
        * Leesman endures short outing in first start
        * Tigers 8, White Sox 6: Turning a mismatch into a game
        * Leesman endures short outing in first start
        * Ventura not basing decisions solely on pitch count
        * Gillaspie sits out with sore left hand
        * Relief corps showing signs of working into shape


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Gov. Pat Quinn: “When Quinn is in, the Hawks wi.....


        * Lawsuit seeks investigation of hiring under Quinn
        * Lawsuit against Mississippi gun dealer settled
        * Hastert among GOP supporters of immigration reform
        * Ex-radical group member says university ending job
        * Spring corn planting still sputters in key states
        * Death penalty case shifts focus to slain Ill. kids
        * Illinois audit: Police training money misspent
        * Man convicted in 1957 Illinois death appeals
        * Acco to add 162-job call center in Booneville
        * Bruce Rauner details some views on immigration

        * GOP lawmaker objects to 9-0 vote for Obama library
        * Clock ticking for states to adopt health exchanges
        * Madigan re-elected to lead state Democratic party
        * Hastert, other state Republicans supporting immigration reform
        * Lawsuit seeks investigation of hiring under Quinn
        * DNR mining-oversight official fired
        * Democrats: Illinois schools could face major cuts
        * State prisons to use costly drug for hepatitis C
        * Illinois Medicaid paying for dead clients
        * Quinn grants 43 clemency requests

        * Emanuel rips Rauner over pension stance
        * Madigan re-elected to lead Illinois Democratic party
        * Ebony editor-in-chief steps down
        * Ebony magazine puts Jet editor in charge
        * Ebony taps Jet editor to take top slot


        * Vehicle hits Roseland bus stop, 5 injured
        * Yeah, let’s get those taggers
        * No public money for Obama library
        * Make graffiti taggers pay for vandalizing CTA buses, trains
        * Feds create new Chicago teams targeting cybercrime, securities fraud
        * Cook County Sheriff reopens investigation of priest
        * Transit shake-up not on fast track, key lawmaker says
        * FBI informant on tape hugging man before shooting him: prosecutors
        * Priest in 2nd child abuse investigation won’t be alone with kids: archdiocese
        * Metra service back to normal at Union Station after rail repaired


        * Pawnshop that sold gun used to kill cop agrees to report more on sales
        * Maywood man charged in weekend hit-and-run death
        * 8 wounded in separate city-wide shootings
        * 6 injured when South Side police chase ends in crash
        * CTA's new weapon in graffiti battle: suits against vandals, parents
        * Man accused of assaulting woman at Woodstock motel
        * FBI informant on parole denied bail in fatal shooting caught on video surveillance
        * Firefighters rescue man from burning building in Roseland
        * NTSB head: Oil tanker rail 'safety has been compromised'
        * Cops: Man who killed wife, self was accused of raping her


        * Initial Obama Library Vote A "Misunderstanding"
        * The Vanishing Millionaire Tax
        * Legislator Protests Madigan As Party Chair, Won't Say Why
        * Tax Returns Revealing ... But Not Revealing Enough
        * Quinn Releases Tax Returns; Rauner's Waiting
        * Illinois Senate Joins Push For U.S. Constitutional Convention
        * Quinn Signs Law Intended To Lower Cost Of Auto Leasing
        * Mayors' group pushes for Illinois pension reform
        * Two don't-miss events this Wednesday
        * Illinois Medicaid Paying For The Dead


        * Lawsuit seeks investigation of hiring under Quinn
        * Madigan re-elected to lead state Democratic party
        * Madigan: 'Misunderstanding' on Obama library vote
        * Hastert, other state Republicans supporting immigration reform
        * Audit: Treasurer's office has 30 guns not given to police
        * State audit: Police training money misspent
        * Amazon takes hit in states with online tax, study says
        * Bankruptcy court trial sought over $3.8 million paid to Parsons
        * Quinn's taxes show little change from previous year
        * Durkin says Obama library unaffordable for state


        * Jackson County hosts asparagus workshop
        * Williamson County Child Advocacy Center gets re-accreditation
        * John Adams Jr.
        * Anne Otey
        * John Oakley
        * Gipsey Hicks
        * Lavell 'LD' Starrick
        * Charles 'Blue' Perschbacher
        * Norma Rodgers
        * Rob Heuer


        * The 10th District money race
        * Aurora Democrat calls out IHSA
        * Lawyers: Ill. hazing law vague, unconstitutional
        * Ill. House OKs lower-cost hunting bill for seniors
        * Quinn’s running mate takes new consulting job

        * Nuke advocate attacks Obama - Reno News & ...
        * Grant puts AEDs in Clark County - Paris Be...
        * Congressman's staff in Neoga today - Journ...
        * Congressman to visit Renewable Energy Cent...
        * Shimkus Honors 100th Anniversary of Heath ...
        * Congressman to visit with constituents in ...
        * IRS Tax Breaks Available for Disaster Vict...
        * Shimkus accepting Congressinal Art entries...
        * Congressman to host art show at Tarble - D...
        * Shimkus tours EIU Renewable Energy Center ...

        * Loading Koch Industries Website Too Many T......
        * Maryland and DC among worst for food aller......
        * Cleveland State University to reestablish ......
        * Convicted political boss Al Sanchez runnin......
        * Candidates make last filings for local, st......

        * Illinois Lt. Gov. Simon opposes pension le......
        * Dillard Odd Man Out on Pension Deal Reaction...
        * Sen. Mark Kirk sides with Rauner on pensio......
        * Governor's race infighting threatens pensi......
        * SCHOONERS - Home of Everyone's Favorite Be......

        * Obama Administration Tightens Grip On Intelligence
        * Catching gangbangers on bikes?
        * You’d think it was still 20th Century by composition of immigration forum
        * CPS: Emanuel's Air Conditioning Mandate To Cost $100 Million
        * 6th Ward Alderman on CAN-TV's Political Forum
        * Reading the Tea Party Leaves
        * The Brick Stackers
        * Recipe for success
        * Court Critical Of Ohio Law Punishing Campaign Lies
        * Michigan Affirmative Ban Is OK, Supreme Court Says


        * Governor Quinn Promotes Welcome Home Illinois Program at Annual Affordable Housing Conference - Addresses Industry Leaders on State’s Improving Housing Market and New Program for First-Time Homebuyers
        * IEMA Encourages Participation in ‘America’s PrepareAthon!’ on April 30 - First National Day of Action Expected to Draw Millions of Participants
        * Redeploy Illinois Program Diverts Thousands of Youth From Prison System, Saves State $60 Million - New analysis of prison diversion initiative shows 54 percent reduction in juvenile incarceration
        * Illinois EPA Recognized for 40 Year of Graduate Public Service Internship Partnership with University of Illinois at Springfield - Agency Internship Programs Help Students Gain Real-World Knowledge of Environmental Protection and Regulations
        * Governor Quinn Proclaims Tuesday, April 22, Earth Day in Illinois - Urges People Across the State to Go Green and Continue Environmental Consciousness




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller