SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Raoul by the numbers

Monday, Aug 26, 2013

* The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history. Ergo, my Sun-Times column

A debate of sorts is raging about whether state Sen. Kwame Raoul would be a “spoiler” for Bill Daley if Raoul ran for governor.

The assumption is that Raoul, who is black, can’t win, but that he would take away so many African-American votes from Gov. Pat Quinn that Quinn would lose to Daley, who supposedly does so poorly with black voters that a Raoul candidacy wouldn’t hurt him.

I’ve commissioned some polling that should be helpful here.

A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,394 likely Democratic primary voters on July 19 found that Quinn was leading Daley 38-33. In that poll, the governor was getting less than half — 47 percent — of the black vote, while Daley was getting 26 percent, which isn’t bad when you figure that another quarter of the black vote was still up for grabs.

I commissioned yet another poll of 1,528 likely Democratic primary voters on Aug. 6 and added Sen. Raoul’s name into the mix. In that Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, Raoul was identified as a state senator and “an African-American attorney from Chicago.” Daley was identified as a former White House chief of staff and Quinn was identified as the governor.

The results showed Quinn led Daley by four points, 27-23, with Raoul getting 13. The Quinn-vs.-Daley spread barely changed from the July poll, belying the notion, at least so far, that Raoul is an automatic spoiler for Daley. Quinn’s lead over Daley dropped a lot among black Democrats with Raoul in the race, but Quinn went from trailing Daley among whites by two points in July to leading Daley by five when Raoul was put into the mix.

And Raoul’s score of 13 percent right off the bat is pretty darned good, especially considering that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner has spent $2 million on TV and radio ads and is polling at about the same level as Raoul is now.

Why is that? Well, one reason is that history shows black voters tend to support legitimate black candidates, so Raoul doesn’t need to spend huge money to get himself into contention as long as he’s running a solid campaign.

Another big reason can be found in another poll I commissioned on Aug. 12, which found that 48 percent of 1,538 likely Democratic primary voters were dissatisfied with their choice between Quinn and Daley and 9 percent were unsure. So a clear 57 percent majority were either unhappy or ambivalent about the two announced candidates.

Among black Democrats, just 31 percent were satisfied and a huge 57 percent were dissatisfied with their two choices.

It’s pretty obvious that lots of Democrats want somebody else to run, and black Democrats are particularly eager to see another candidate get into the race. If Raoul can satisfy that very clear Democratic hunger for “somebody else,” then he has a real shot at winning.

With the help of most of his Democratic state Senate colleagues throughout the state and Senate President John Cullerton’s fund-raising and campaign infrastructure assistance, I think the numbers we have so far show that Raoul could overcome a somewhat late start and very well win this thing.

And what if Raoul loses and Daley wins? Nobody can totally rule that out. But a June 13 Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,322 likely Democratic primary voters found that just 28 percent of African-Americans approved of Pat Quinn’s job performance, while 40 percent disapproved. Blacks gave Quinn the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval rating of any race or ethnicity. So, African-American Democrats obviously don’t care much for the governor’s tenure anyway.

Thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


12 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:55 am:

    –The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history.–

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November.


  2. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 8:58 am:

    Good column Rich. I think the problem with most pundits is that they speak from the gut instead of doing any research other than reading other pundits.


  3. - Cassiopeia - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:00 am:

    I think you are spot on the he can win this thing and I think the pension reform will be viewed by the union leadership as a backing away from the more draconian Madigan plan to give them the leeway to support him.

    Then its game on…or pile on Quinn.


  4. - Fed up - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:47 am:

    I don’t like Daley or Quinn, if Raoul can help get a reasonable pension plan advanced he has as good a shot as anyone. He interviews well, much better than Quinn.


  5. - wndycty - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    I just think Kwame gives white progressives and unions an alternative to Quinn that Daley did not. Additionally, I think that his relative youth and background will play very well with younger voters who want to be inspired. There is nothing inspiring about Quinn or Daley. I know many of my fellow commenters might not agree, but Raoul’s presence in the race introduces a certain energy that no other candidate on either side of the ballot could.


  6. - Hank - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:03 am:

    You’d think some folks would have learned a lesson from last November
    LOL so true. I wonder how “President” Romney is doing these days?


  7. - Ahoy! - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:51 am:

    13% at this point in the game for Raul is really good. If he can get the public sector unions backing him and a couple private sector unions here and there he’s got a legitimate shot.


  8. - dogboy - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:55 am:

    Sen Raul


  9. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:27 am:

    Again, I’ve been saying kwame should run from the moment Lisa dropped out. He should run. He could win.


  10. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:39 am:

    Raoul’s path is going to depend on whether he can come up with a pension reduction plan that will be satisfactory to the public worker unions.


  11. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 12:13 pm:

    Sorry Norseman, the state constitution forbids “pension reduction”, i.e., diminishing or impairing pension benefits. No matter who proposes it.


  12. - Norseman - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    I’m not sorry, I’ve been saying it until I’m blue in the face.

    We’re dealing with the post on Raoul’s path to the Governor’s mansion.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Next week's pressers
* Today's long story
* Rauner approval rating: 40-36
* AP and Chicago Tribune - Study: Exelon subsidy would cost $1.6B over 5 years
* Question of the day
* Illinois Credit Unions – A Smarter Choice
* Advertisers behaving badly
* Your daily "right to work" roundup
* *** UPDATED x1 *** It's just a bill...
* Ford plant reaches 100,000 cop car milestone
* House approves marijuana tickets
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* More cuts announced
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Verizon’s HTC One (M8) bug crashing apps left and right
        * Verizon to sell LG’s Watch Urbane for $349 from April 28th
        * HTC tries to get creative with Cellami
        * OPPO bezel-less phone concept revealed in images, video
        * The Week in iPad Cases: Mophie's first iPad case keeps your iPad juiced while adding storage
        * Missing the point: Analyzing a thing you haven't used
        * It’s time for a Windows Padfone

        * Jony Ive claims Apple Watch isn't a threat to luxury watch makers
        * Bruce Jenner Interview Serves As “Ellen” Moment for Transgender Movement
        * With New Launches, Amazon Plans for Day When Product Sales No Longer Lead to Growth
        * This Week's Top Downloads
        * The Best Way to Shuffle and Randomize a Deck of Playing Cards
        * Add a Power Charging Sound to Your MacBook with a Terminal Command
        * Type "Note to Self" Into Google to Send Notes to Your Phone

        * Danks to get the call following suspended game
        * White Sox place Albers on DL, may need Rodon to start
        * Sale, Samardzija suspended following fracas
        * 6 players suspended in Royals-White Sox fracas
        * White Sox hope they've found spark to slay mighty KC
        * Danks eyes first win in rematch with Volquez, Royals
        * Abreu escapes injury scare on rundown

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Springfield can be speedy when it wants to..
        * IDOT launches month-long infrastructure ‘listen.....
        * New schools chief says funding fix could take y.....


        * 2 sentences reduced in St. Clair courthouse drug scandal
        * Fatal Metropolis police shooting deemed justified
        * Thunderstorms force cancellation of end of Illinois Marathon
        * New Illinois schools chief says funding fix could take years
        * Illinois woman killed by train was trying to rescue opossum
        * Armenian-American judge marks WWI-era killings
        * Bill would allow Illinois students to opt out of state tests
        * Medicaid hit with $106 million cut from Illinois budget deal
        * Chicago Armenians mark centennial of genocide of 1.5M
        * Authorities: Ottawa man killed, cremated in burn pile

        * New schools chief says funding fix could take years
        * State budget fix includes $106M in Medicaid cuts
        * House passes bill to create high-speed rail oversight panel
        * Bill would allow students to opt out of state tests
        * Illinois House OKs time limit on storing license plate data
        * House passes bill to create high speed rail oversight panel
        * House passes bill treating marijuana possession like speeding ticket
        * Bill banning indoor e-cigarettes won't be called for vote
        * Services for homeless, rape victims among cuts disclosed by Rauner
        * Rauner releases detailed list of budget cuts

        * The opportunity in boomers and their aching backs
        * Here's how Method's new Chicago factory went green—and how much it cost
        * Up on the roof, it's green as can be
        * Getting to Platinum LEED requires lead time
        * Letters to the editor


          * Chicago-area Nepalis work to reach family and support earthquake relief
          * Police ask for help finding McHenry bank robber
          * Volunteers give 80 Austin, Maywood homes new lease on life
          * 3 killed, 6 wounded in city shootings
          * Nigerian man sentenced after scamming Indiana woman out of thousands using fake dating profile
          * Police: Driver fled on foot after hit-and-run accident in Elgin
          * Wisconsin man climbing Everest survives avalanche triggered by Nepal quake
          * Man wounded in Lawndale neighborhood shooting
          * Starbucks buzzing again Saturday after register outage halted sales
          * Chicago motorcyclist killed in Highland Park accident


          * Illinois prisons chief says union contracts causing problems
          * Sheriff Dart to investigate unlicensed rehab centers
          * Rauner's first 100 days: The fight between unions and Rauner
          * Large provider of Chicago mental health services, C4, is closing
          * After detective’s acquittal in fatal shooting, prosecutors face criticism
          * Mayor Emanuel taps CTA director to be chief of staff
          * Portage Park church mourns 'favorite son' Cardinal George
          * Lawmakers fast-track bill on Obama library, Lucas museum
          * Emanuel announces more FAA meetings on O'Hare noise
          * Cook County prosecutor to try new approach to drug crimes


          * New schools chief says funding fix could take years
          * Deckle McLean: Independent voters the new political wild card
          * Charles Krauthammer: Obama's Nixon doctrine: Anointing Iran
          * State budget fix includes $106M in Medicaid cuts
          * House passes bill to create high-speed rail oversight panel
          * Bill would allow students to opt out of state tests
          * Illinois House OKs time limit on storing license plate data
          * House passes bill treating marijuana possession like speeding ticket
          * Bill banning indoor e-cigarettes won't be called for vote
          * Zach Mottl: Illinois companies need the Export-Import Bank


          * New Visitors Center opens to rave reviews
          * Illinois woman killed by train was trying to rescue opossum
          * Thunderstorms force cancellation of end of Illinois Marathon
          * Man hospitalized after he’s shot by housing authority officer in ESL
          * 20-year-old hospitalized after he’s shot by housing authority officer in ESL
          * 20-year-old shot by housing authority officer in ESL
          * King's Harvest opens doors to community
          * Marathon cut short
          * Illinois air museum plans to close over finances
          * Exercisers get hearts pumping during Vatterott College fitness challenge


          * Six seriously injured in Elgin hit-and-run accident
          * Grayslake North stays unbeaten with PK win over Vernon Hills
          * Baseball: Lake County roundup
          * Kick-scooter fans attempt to break world record in Batavia
          * Softball: Lake County roundup

          * Republicans again appeal to theocracy
          * Tammy Duckworth Releases Campaign Fund Total
          * LIVE: Biden speaks on supporting survivors
          * Armenian-American US judge marks genocide ...
          * How To Cut Federal Spending? Lawmakers Say...
          * Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Steve ...
          * Joe Biden on campus sexual assault: ‘No me...
          * Olson urges Obama transparency on federal ...
          * Raja Puts Together Winning Team in Illinois
          * Armenians Commemorate Centennial Of Genoci...

          * Debate on the Merits, Anyone?...
          * Northbrook Boy Continues Quest for Diabete......

          * Will County officials travel to D.C. to lo......
          * Northbrook Boy Continues Quest for Diabete......

          * Chiraq
          * I got a nice note from my colleague Curtis House. “You can’t represent sitting on your assets.”
          * Here are the undecideds on the opt out HB 306. Make the call.
          * My afternoon at the Network for Public Education Chicago conference.
          * Illinois House members Ives, Sandack outraged over College of DuPage scandals [video]
          * Lipinski, Roskam, Hultgren warn against Illinois' proposal to oppress free exercise of religion
          * Resolution to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank moves in the Illinois House
          * Rep. Luis Gutiérrez backs Jeb Bush in Republican Presidential Primary
          * Former Illinois state rep gets five months prison time for bribery conviction
          * Committee Passes McSweeney Bill Banning Red Light Cameras


          * IDPH Moves to Eliminate Meningococcal Meningitis - New Vaccination Requirements for Adolescents
          * YOUR ACTIONS MATTER! kicks off statewide as preparations begin for new server training law
          * Emergency Management Officials Launch Weather Alert Radio Contest - ‘Weather Alert Radios Save Lives’ contest promotes awareness; 100 radios to be awarded
          * IDOT Launches Statewide Listening Tour to Discuss Illinois Infrastructure Needs, Priorities
          * Illinois Student Assistance Commission Encourages Families To Learn About Personal Finance During Money Smart Week Event





              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller