SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Words of wisdom

Monday, Aug 26, 2013

* I couldn’t agree more with Chris Mooney

[Gov. Pat Quinn’s] political obituary was half written twice in 2010 before he narrowly won difficult primary and general elections.

“You would think that an incumbent with his low approval level would be toast,” said Chris Mooney, director of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “But every election is not about ideals, it’s about choices.”

Too many pundits characterize elections as “referenda” on incumbents or the party in power. They’re not. Elections, in the end, are almost all about how the choices are defined between the candidates on the ballot. Pat Quinn’s job approval rating was just 24 percent in a late September, 2010 Public Policy Polling survey and 28 percent in an early September, 2010 Tribune poll. He still won, mainly by defining his opponent as potentially even worse than he was.

Never forget that.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


20 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:19 am:

    “Here endeth the Lesson.”

    Brady was “defined”, out-worked by those most fearing how Brady was defined, and Quinn had the pulse of the voters, and what they would NOT want.

    Great lesson, but will anyone take that to heart THIS time?


  2. - Cassiopeia - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:21 am:

    I think you also need to keep in mind that his election in 2010 was a miracle and you usually don’t get two of those.

    Additionally, the negatives against Quinn have hardened significantly in the past 3 years.


  3. - Bill White - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:21 am:

    As Winston Churchill said:

    “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”


  4. - langhorne - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:27 am:

    mooney is a thoughtful guy, w good insights. he has also had several years in state to observe our politics, so i always consider his observations.


  5. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:27 am:

    I never thought Pat Quinn could win a big one.

    I didn’t think he would beat Hynes.

    And I absolutely did not think he would beat Brady in a historic GOP year, with the economy in the tank and Blago a fresh memory.

    I, and many others, were way wrong. You’re supposed to learn from that.


  6. - OurMagician - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:28 am:

    Voters should remember these wise words…”I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says, ‘Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me… You can’t get fooled again!’”


  7. - dave - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:30 am:

    **I think you also need to keep in mind that his election in 2010 was a miracle and you usually don’t get two of those.**

    Miracle? It wasn’t a miracle. The primary was just a matter of Hynes running out of time (and making some poor strategic decisions). The general was simply a matter of Brady being a less attractive alternative to Quinn. That isn’t a miracle. It is just reality.

    **Additionally, the negatives against Quinn have hardened significantly in the past 3 years.**

    According to what?


  8. - overcooked - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:31 am:

    Has Pat Quinn ever been the favorite in any race he has won? Never count him out because he is Pat Quinn and he will say anything to get elected.


  9. - Cassandra - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:46 am:

    Incumbency, the attendant name recognition and the power to dispense state cash for (and take credit for) projects attractive to particular voters-all are such huge advantages that it’s a wonder anybody defeats an incumbent.

    Maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised, but I don’t see it, either in the primary or the general.


  10. - The Dot Connector - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:51 am:

    Quinn’s decision to choose a well-liked candidate as his Lt. Governor from among one of the heavily-populated collar counties will be “the magic” that gets survivor Pat Quinn re-elected. Quinn’s choice will have to be known as “a union guy” so that Quinn can win back those union rank & file votes that he has alienated. If Quinn gets “a charismatic back-slapper” (aka. a “people person”) for his partner who is well-regarded by the union vote as well as the minority vote in a heavily-populated collar county, then Pat will squeak through another Primary and General election as the political “survivor” that he has come to be known to be. I look for a former state legislator who is a Pro-Pat Quinn-loyalist who is currently serving in a heavily-populated collar county, who is popular, and who has always had the union’s support to be the “perfect fit” for Governor Quinn. Look for Pat Quinn to give the nod to his friend and loyal political backer Will County Executive Lawrence Walsh. He would be an excellent fit as Lieutenant Governor for Pat Quinn and the Illinois Democrat Party. As Forrest Gump once said, “It would be like peas & carrots” coming together on the Democrat ticket.


  11. - Skeptic - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:53 am:

    And also it’s rare that a candidate’s election amounts to a “mandate” no matter how much he/she thinks of herself.


  12. - Hank - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:59 am:

    I didn’t think he would beat Hynes.

    Once Hynes was branded a racist for using the Harold Washington video that was negative of Quinn it was over
    Now that Lisa is staying put, Quinn wins easily


  13. - Carl Nyberg - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:12 am:

    Hynes wasn’t branded as “racist” for using the Harold Washington video. But it did remind people who was aligned with whom back in the Harold Washington era.

    Today, Democratic activists who were aligned with Harold Washington and proud they were aligned with HW. Do you here people who were active against HW brag about their role in that fight?

    Do you see why Hynes took a risk bringing HW into the discussion?


  14. - steve schnorf - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:20 am:

    As a very wise man in Springfield told me almost 40 years ago, every election is “compared to who?”


  15. - Carl Nyberg - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:20 am:

    ==Never count him out because he is Pat Quinn and he will say anything to get elected.==

    What’s the basis for saying Quinn is more dishonest than the other candidates who aspire to replace Quinn?


  16. - overcooked - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:45 am:

    Didn’t know there was a political dishonesty scale. Pat Quinn has always been a survivor and he wears that underdog label well.


  17. - RNUG - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:58 am:

    Chris Mooney is on target; it’s always about the choice in that election. In 40 some years of voting at all levels, I’ve rarely had a candidate I enthusiastically voted for. In most cases, I was voting for the (perceived) lesser of two evils.


  18. - A guy... - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 3:24 pm:

    PQ’s brand in the eyes of the voting public is that he’s an honest, hard-working man who won’t wind up in jail. I don’t think you ever count him out. The circles he travels in includes fewer insiders and more regular folk. They identify with him. Call him a bumbler or anything else, but he connects with real people. Real people vote.


  19. - A guy... - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 3:26 pm:

    AND…he’s always a dangerous guy because he runs like he’s got nothing to lose. That’s because he’s got nothing to lose. Unless he wants to run for President of the US, he’s reached the goal he cares most about. Now he only cares about being a people’s guy. This is coming from a guy in the other party.


  20. - Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 7:41 pm:

    Amen–to Mr. Mooney and our BlogMaster’s subsequent remarks…!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend
* Fracking rules finally unveiled
* Question of the day
* A big IDOT roundup
* Even Steven, for now
* *** UPDATED x1 - Confirmed *** Report: Libertarians file charges
* Big guys dinged a bit, but little guys helped a lot
* Today's photo
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Samsung releases “trailers” for its Unpacked event at IFA 2014
        * The best apps for taking notes
        * Ready for #MoreLumia?
        * Moto X+1 gets detailed in in-depth video leak
        * IFA 2014 expectation roundup: smartwatches galore
        * The Moto X successor gets a new possible name as Moto Maker info leaks
        * Sony to launch two new wearable devices at IFA 2014

        * Samsung Galaxy S5 LTE-A Now Available For $749
        * Possible Sony Xperia Z3 Dimensions Teased
        * Moto X+1 Caught On Video, Several Features Detailed
        * Samsung Smart Home Range Expanded
        * Web banking service Holvi tests API for integrating other services with its platform
        * Win Free Tickets to Social Media Success Summit 2014
        * Microsoft’s Lumia 730 Smartphone Teased

        * Breaks turn in Quintana's favor against Tigers
        * Molina outrighted; roster spot opens up for Rodon
        * Wilkins, Snodgress part of White Sox shuffle
        * Noesi looks to continue push toward season's end
        * Breaks turn in Quintana's favor against Tigers
        * Dunn to retire following season
        * White Sox deal Dunn to A's for pitching prospect


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Illinois to spend another $102M on high-speed rail..
        * Quinn announces opening of Algonquin bypass..
        * Tougher rules ahead on domestic abuse..
        * Governor hopefuls rip each other on hiring, taxes..


        * Little League team honored with parade in Vegas
        * Rauner vow revives governor's mansion question
        * Quinn to live on minimum wage for a week
        * Infection affecting west-central Illinois soybeans
        * Newborn baby found alive inside Illinois trash bin
        * Bank loans used to collect unpaid medical bills
        * Man brings 2 military flares to Illinois sheriff
        * 4 shot to death in Chicago suburb of Elmhurst
        * Springfield drug suspect had reinforced door
        * Beyond governor race, big stakes in Illinois vote

        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Statehouse Insider: Hands off investments
        * State of unions: AFSCME wins some, loses some on outsourcing
        * State of unions: Domination of Illinois' workforce becomes campaign issue
        * State of unions: Lawmakers approved keeping some workers out of unions
        * State of Illinois posts applications for medical marijuana businesses
        * DNR issues long-awaited ‘fracking’ rules
        * Quinn grants 38 clemency requests
        * IDNR issues long-awaited ‘fracking’ rules
        * Court rules state retirees can stop paying health insurance premiums

        * If only it were this easy to lift share prices
        * 'Chicagoland' star returns to school
        * Amid re-election fight, Quinn pushes through a tax on business
        * Chicago's worst IPO in 2014: Ryerson
        * Why ComEd is worried about your smartphone


        * Pullman Park needs Congress’ support
        * Leave the Knee Defender at home
        * Dump ‘Fake IG,’  give Ferguson more power
        * Not so fast, say the grown-ups
        * When common sense and gun rights collide
        * Alvarez: Crime lab backlog held up DNA evidence on Evans’ gun
        * EDITORIAL: Jury still out on justice in Koschman case
        * Rogers Park woman killed in crash on Tri-State Tollway near Schiller Park
        * 2 dead, 10 wounded in shootings across Chicago since Friday evening
        * Women at work: Female ministers find obstacles on path to pulpit


        * Tougher rules ahead on domestic abuse
        * Shootings on North, South sides wound at least 5
        * 'As horrible as it sounds, it came out of love': family of 4 dead in murder-suicide
        * No bail for 2nd man charged in killing of woman days before Mother's Day
        * Quinn takes on minimum wage challenge
        * Man, 49, dies after being pulled from water near Montrose Beach
        * Cops: Man dies following Tri-State crash


        * Donated Breast Milk Helps Sick Infants
        * DNR Releases Fracking Rules
        * Update From Ferguson Via KWMU's Rachel Lippmann
        * Listen to State Week - August 29, 2014
        * Inspector's Report Reveals Clout Hiring At IDOT
        * 'Belleville' The Movie Is NOT A Documentary
        * Journalist and doctor encourage honest conversations about death
        * Undocumented Immigrants Call For Presidential Orders
        * State Retirees To Stop Paying Health Premiums
        * How America's most plentiful bird disappeared


        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Our Opinion: Driving into floodwater a deadly practice
        * Angie Muhs: A debate in Springfield would send the right message from candidates
        * Charles Krauthammer: Lower corporate tax rates. Now.
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Dillman, Watson looking at possible runs for alderman
        * Statehouse Insider: Hands off investments
        * Statehouse Insider: Hands off investments
        * State of unions: AFSCME wins some, loses some on outsourcing
        * State of unions: Domination of Illinois' workforce becomes campaign issue
        * State of unions: Lawmakers approved keeping some workers out of unions


        * Police make arrest in Zeigler robbery
        * Superintendents urging school bus safety
        * TGI Friday's to open by the end of this year
        * Veteran plumber is green
        * Business Calendar
        * People in business
        * Fairview City Centre progressing ahead of schedule
        * Something for everyone at library book sale
        * Reps sought for Alzheimer’s support
        * State veterans’ officers meeting in Collinsville


        * Donnie Wahlberg and Jenny McCarthy wed in St. Charles
        * Rolling Meadows driver charged in crash near Daily Herald building
        * Cougars will face Wisconsin to open playoffs
        * Disabled children killed in Elmhurst murder-suicide
        * Addison Trail puts it all together

        * Roskam: Making college more affordable for...
        * Army Veteran Shane Scherer Joins Roskam's ...
        * Roskam speaks on issues to chamber lunch c...
        * Roskam talks tax reform, health care, immi...
        * Roskam hires wounded veteran in West Chica...
        * Inactive Congress Discussed - Alton Daily ...
        * Roskam, Kirk speak to local business owner...
        * Roskam Talks Taxes - Alton Daily News
        * Nadler introduces resolution condemning an...
        * Roskam gives business leaders vision for f...

        * Durbin On Social Security Shortfall...
        * Durbin On Social Security Shortfall...
        * Durbin On Social Security Shortfall...
        * Durbin On Social Security Shortfall...
        * Durbin On Social Security Shortfall...

        * Putin Hopeful Russia Won’t Lose Right to H......
        * Susquenita enters Tri-Valley League under ......
        * Putin hopeful Russia won't lose right to h......
        * Soccer-Putin hopeful Russia won't lose rig......

        * Hidden in Plain Sight: The Architecture of Chicago's Labor Movement
        * Contemplating on Labor Day whether “labor” will influence this election
        * Durbin - Oberweis race tightening; Oberweis endorsed by Bishop Trotter
        * "The Tarot Show" Coming To Uptown Arts Center
        * ... Or Are You Just Happy To See Me?
        * Oberweis will attempt to bypass Quinn with veto override
        * Where's Weyermuller? Having it his way at Burger King
        * O'Brien: Yes We Tan. Obama Concedes to ISIS in "Taupe and Change" suit
        * Foster: Oberweis' flip-flop on immigration cost him my vote
        * Chris Christie comes to Chicago to campaign for Bruce Rauner. Although Rauner needs no lessons from Christie on how to reward political pals with pension funds.


        * Governor Quinn Invests $102 Million in High-Speed Rail Upgrades on Chicago-St. Louis Line - Funding Will Improve Capacity, Safety on Joliet-Dwight Segment
        * Quinn Refuses to Answer New IDOT Questions
        * IDNR Delivers Revised Rules to Implement Hydraulic Fracturing Regulatory Act - Rules strengthened to ensure public participation, improve transparency, toughen penalties and protect the environment
        * Governor Quinn Proclaims September as “Recovery Month” in Illinois - Encourages people to speak up about mental illness and substance abuse
        * Governor Quinn Dedicates Jane Byrne Interchange - Governor Renames Circle Interchange in Honor of Chicago’s First and Only Female Mayor to Date




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller