SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Words of wisdom

Monday, Aug 26, 2013

* I couldn’t agree more with Chris Mooney

[Gov. Pat Quinn’s] political obituary was half written twice in 2010 before he narrowly won difficult primary and general elections.

“You would think that an incumbent with his low approval level would be toast,” said Chris Mooney, director of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “But every election is not about ideals, it’s about choices.”

Too many pundits characterize elections as “referenda” on incumbents or the party in power. They’re not. Elections, in the end, are almost all about how the choices are defined between the candidates on the ballot. Pat Quinn’s job approval rating was just 24 percent in a late September, 2010 Public Policy Polling survey and 28 percent in an early September, 2010 Tribune poll. He still won, mainly by defining his opponent as potentially even worse than he was.

Never forget that.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


20 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:19 am:

    “Here endeth the Lesson.”

    Brady was “defined”, out-worked by those most fearing how Brady was defined, and Quinn had the pulse of the voters, and what they would NOT want.

    Great lesson, but will anyone take that to heart THIS time?


  2. - Cassiopeia - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:21 am:

    I think you also need to keep in mind that his election in 2010 was a miracle and you usually don’t get two of those.

    Additionally, the negatives against Quinn have hardened significantly in the past 3 years.


  3. - Bill White - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:21 am:

    As Winston Churchill said:

    “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”


  4. - langhorne - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:27 am:

    mooney is a thoughtful guy, w good insights. he has also had several years in state to observe our politics, so i always consider his observations.


  5. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:27 am:

    I never thought Pat Quinn could win a big one.

    I didn’t think he would beat Hynes.

    And I absolutely did not think he would beat Brady in a historic GOP year, with the economy in the tank and Blago a fresh memory.

    I, and many others, were way wrong. You’re supposed to learn from that.


  6. - OurMagician - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:28 am:

    Voters should remember these wise words…”I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says, ‘Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me… You can’t get fooled again!’”


  7. - dave - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:30 am:

    **I think you also need to keep in mind that his election in 2010 was a miracle and you usually don’t get two of those.**

    Miracle? It wasn’t a miracle. The primary was just a matter of Hynes running out of time (and making some poor strategic decisions). The general was simply a matter of Brady being a less attractive alternative to Quinn. That isn’t a miracle. It is just reality.

    **Additionally, the negatives against Quinn have hardened significantly in the past 3 years.**

    According to what?


  8. - overcooked - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:31 am:

    Has Pat Quinn ever been the favorite in any race he has won? Never count him out because he is Pat Quinn and he will say anything to get elected.


  9. - Cassandra - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:46 am:

    Incumbency, the attendant name recognition and the power to dispense state cash for (and take credit for) projects attractive to particular voters-all are such huge advantages that it’s a wonder anybody defeats an incumbent.

    Maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised, but I don’t see it, either in the primary or the general.


  10. - The Dot Connector - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:51 am:

    Quinn’s decision to choose a well-liked candidate as his Lt. Governor from among one of the heavily-populated collar counties will be “the magic” that gets survivor Pat Quinn re-elected. Quinn’s choice will have to be known as “a union guy” so that Quinn can win back those union rank & file votes that he has alienated. If Quinn gets “a charismatic back-slapper” (aka. a “people person”) for his partner who is well-regarded by the union vote as well as the minority vote in a heavily-populated collar county, then Pat will squeak through another Primary and General election as the political “survivor” that he has come to be known to be. I look for a former state legislator who is a Pro-Pat Quinn-loyalist who is currently serving in a heavily-populated collar county, who is popular, and who has always had the union’s support to be the “perfect fit” for Governor Quinn. Look for Pat Quinn to give the nod to his friend and loyal political backer Will County Executive Lawrence Walsh. He would be an excellent fit as Lieutenant Governor for Pat Quinn and the Illinois Democrat Party. As Forrest Gump once said, “It would be like peas & carrots” coming together on the Democrat ticket.


  11. - Skeptic - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:53 am:

    And also it’s rare that a candidate’s election amounts to a “mandate” no matter how much he/she thinks of herself.


  12. - Hank - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 9:59 am:

    I didn’t think he would beat Hynes.

    Once Hynes was branded a racist for using the Harold Washington video that was negative of Quinn it was over
    Now that Lisa is staying put, Quinn wins easily


  13. - Carl Nyberg - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:12 am:

    Hynes wasn’t branded as “racist” for using the Harold Washington video. But it did remind people who was aligned with whom back in the Harold Washington era.

    Today, Democratic activists who were aligned with Harold Washington and proud they were aligned with HW. Do you here people who were active against HW brag about their role in that fight?

    Do you see why Hynes took a risk bringing HW into the discussion?


  14. - steve schnorf - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:20 am:

    As a very wise man in Springfield told me almost 40 years ago, every election is “compared to who?”


  15. - Carl Nyberg - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 10:20 am:

    ==Never count him out because he is Pat Quinn and he will say anything to get elected.==

    What’s the basis for saying Quinn is more dishonest than the other candidates who aspire to replace Quinn?


  16. - overcooked - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:45 am:

    Didn’t know there was a political dishonesty scale. Pat Quinn has always been a survivor and he wears that underdog label well.


  17. - RNUG - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 11:58 am:

    Chris Mooney is on target; it’s always about the choice in that election. In 40 some years of voting at all levels, I’ve rarely had a candidate I enthusiastically voted for. In most cases, I was voting for the (perceived) lesser of two evils.


  18. - A guy... - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 3:24 pm:

    PQ’s brand in the eyes of the voting public is that he’s an honest, hard-working man who won’t wind up in jail. I don’t think you ever count him out. The circles he travels in includes fewer insiders and more regular folk. They identify with him. Call him a bumbler or anything else, but he connects with real people. Real people vote.


  19. - A guy... - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 3:26 pm:

    AND…he’s always a dangerous guy because he runs like he’s got nothing to lose. That’s because he’s got nothing to lose. Unless he wants to run for President of the US, he’s reached the goal he cares most about. Now he only cares about being a people’s guy. This is coming from a guy in the other party.


  20. - Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Aug 26, 13 @ 7:41 pm:

    Amen–to Mr. Mooney and our BlogMaster’s subsequent remarks…!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - More on the state grant suspensions
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraiser/event list
* How can we miss you if you won't go away?
* Question of the day
* Supreme Court justice ordered to testify
* Chicago downgraded
* Today's number: 4-6 weeks
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Human service cuts and state grant suspensions
* Stating the obvious
* *** UPDATED x1 - Double-down *** They really make this too easy...
* Crain's: "Market-based" solution is rigged
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Even more problems for Schock
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Sony Does A Tablet With An Add On Bluetooth Keyboard
        * MWC 2015: Watch the action unfold on our live social wall!
        * Jolla Partners To Build Secure Version Of Its Sailfish Mobile OS
        * Metaio’s Thermal Touch Gets A Little Bit Smaller At MWC 2015
        * Silent Circle Outs Blackphone 2, Blackphone+ Tablet As It Zeroes In On Enterprise Security
        * Nokia N1 first impressions from MWC 2015 (Video)
        * Achieve more with Microsoft and Lumia

        * ZTE Grand S3 Features An Eye Scanner
        * Movius’ myIDs Secure To Be Shown With Samsung KNOX At MWC
        * Windows 10 Insiders: 2.8 Million And Counting
        * Nokia, NTT DoCoMo Showcase 5G High Speed Data Transmission
        * Google+ Splits Into Google Photos and Streams
        * Google Camera Takes On Amazon Rainforest At Ultra Fast Speeds
        * Audience N100 Chip Aims At Natural User Experience

        * Minnie Miñoso an all-time great, all of the time
        * No one meant more to White Sox than Minoso
        * Beckham getting work around infield
        * Beloved Minnie was a Chicago treasure
        * Baseball mourns the loss of Mr. White Sox
        * White Sox players remember Minoso
        * Rodon will take Sale's spot in Cactus rotation

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Who’s Scarier: Scott Walker or ‘Jihadi John’?..
        * Illinois lawmakers to propose measure to battle.....
        * Rauner budget could mean fewer Amtrak trains..
        * Wrestling a bloated university system..
        * Chicago's Fiscal Freefall: Moody's Cuts Chicago.....


        * Illinois lawmakers to propose measure to battle heroin abuse
        * Lady Gaga, Vince Vaughn take charity polar plunge in Chicago
        * Major league baseball's 1st black Latino star Minoso dies
        * Garage fire victim died of smoke inhalation, burns
        * Rauner budget could mean fewer Amtrak trains
        * President Obama remembers Minnie Minoso as 'Mr. White Sox'
        * Peoria police expand use of gunshot detection technology
        * 16-year-old boy charged with murder in Aurora shooting death
        * Pipeline may carry crude oil through southern Illinois
        * Illinois hunters, outdoorsmen hope for ally in Rauner

        * Hunters, outdoorsmen hope for ally in Rauner
        * Tim Butler, congressional staffer, selected to fill former Rep. Rich Brauer's seat
        * Schock reimburses costs for lavish 'Downton Abbey' office decor
        * Brauer replacement could be chosen as early as Saturday
        * Quinn advocates consumer rights, blasts Rauner's budget
        * Rauner says he's 'staying out' of Chicago mayor's race
        * Quinn advocates consumer rights in Loyola speech
        * Judge won't delay sentencing for former state lawmaker Farnham
        * Lt. Gov. Sanguinetti says GOP should court women, Latinos
        * Explore salary information for the state of Illinois

        * Illinois hospitals, health care groups oppose Rauner's cuts to managed care
        * Why even mid-sized trading firms are hurting
        * What's happening with Chinatown's Tony Hu?
        * What's going on at Quick Leonard Kieffer?
        * National Louis University's radical rethink


          * String of residential burglaries hit North, West sides
          * CTA to double speed of some downtown buses that crawl at 3 mph
          * 2 men hurt in shootings on Far South, Northwest sides
          * Traveling Negro Leagues exhibit will be dedicated to Minnie Minoso
          * Missing boy, 12, located
          * Coaching legend Gillespie dies at 88
          * $75K bail for alleged DUI motorist accused of injuring elderly man
          * Autopsy: Minoso died from tear in pulmonary artery
          * Fans of Minnie Minoso pay tribute to player, baseball ambassador
          * Wis. Gov. Walker changes mind about immigration, now rejects 'amnesty'


          * Will Rauner Get Tough On Getting Tough On Crime?
          * AP: Lawmaker Aaron Schock billed private planes, concerts to taxpayers
          * White Sox icon Minnie Minoso dies
          * Chronic Mismanagement Drove State Into Its Fiscal Mess
          * People
          * Essay – Cashing In On Cutting Carbon
          * Lawmakers Aim To Prohibit Sexual Orientation Conversion Therapy For Minors
          * Legislative Checklist March 2015
          * Lincoln Lore
          * Illinois Not Alone In Post-Recession Budget Woes


          * Jorge Chapa: Illinois' majority-minority future and the age-race shift
          * Quote of the Day: Monday, March 2, 2015
          * Hunters, outdoorsmen hope for ally in Rauner
          * Our Opinion: Looking for the leaders among Springfield's candidates
          * Statehouse Insider: That's not a nice thing to say
          * Rep. Rodney Davis and Rep. Mike Bost: Strong financial markets benefit Illinois
          * Quote of the Day: Sunday, March 1, 2015
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Report talk of Houston fundraiser just 'secondhand' info
          * Scott Zeramby: Consider the environment as marijuana industry emerges in Illinois
          * Tim Butler, congressional staffer, selected to fill former Rep. Rich Brauer's seat


          * Teaching in the Digital Age
          * Decatur man's fascination with Sir Arthur is elementary
          * March is Severe Weather Preparedness Week
          * Wrestling a bloated university system
          * Raymond McIntyre
          * Howard Johns
          * Dale Mason
          * Kevin Baker
          * Ralph Spring
          * Rebecca Francis


          * Di Maria, Mata failing to live up to price tags at United
          * Construction picks back up, but it's a different gig now
          * Small SUVs, pricey sports cars to dominate Geneva auto show
          * Knox County officials approve courtroom renovations
          * Lincoln library event to celebrate women in Illinois history

          * Congressman calls for removal of police co...
          * Congressmen Plan House Speech on Chicago's...
          * Sri Lanka's Downward Spiral - Foreign Policy
          * Davis To Obama: 'Do Everything In Your Pow...
          * David Jolly, Danny Davis Team Up on Suicid...
          * Health officials and activists observe Nat...
          * REP. DANNY K. DAVIS NOW SUPPORTS DR. WILLI...
          * Danny Davis Defeats Robert Bumpers In Illi...
          * Rep. Danny Davis Hopes to Keep His Seat fo...
          * Illinois House Dems agonize over vote to f...

          * USDA urged to create pathogen standards fo......
          * Democrats caught between Obama-Netanyahu f......
          * Senators introduce bill to lift Cuba trade......

          * AIPAC’s three-pronged lobbying plan: Iran,......
          * Homeland Security funding drama darkens U.......

          * Northbound Red Line Trains Bypassing Uptown/Edgewater Stations This Weekend
          * CPAC 2015: Hispanic Leader Calls on Conservatives to Take Lead on Immigration
          * Unlikely Hero Does the Right Thing After Hundreds Pass Right On By
          * Americans Were Asked If They Think Obama Loves America. He May Not Love the Results.
          * Grandma Who Thinks She’s Watching Her Granddaughter Graduate From Afar is in For A Big Surprise
          * Kirk Condemns ISIS Kidnapping of Hundreds of Assyrian Christians
          * Scott Walker's response to a heckler brought crowd roaring to their feet
          * ISIS Destroys Archaeological Treasures in Mosul
          * Vince Vaughn Makes Plunge Into Icy Water of Lake Michigan
          * Minority Leader Durkin calls for end to lame duck sessions


          * IEMA Urges People to Prepare for Severe Weather - Tornadoes, floods and severe storms can happen any time of year
          * IDHS helps more than 5,000 individuals with disabilities find jobs - Program offers necessary tools to earn a living wage and become more independent
          * 24th Anniversary Desert Storm Remembrance Ceremony
          * Illinois Department of Human Rights Announces 2015 Spring Training Schedule
          * Snow and Freezing Rain to Impact Travel in Illinois - IDOT Crews Prepared to Battle Winter Weather this Weekend




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller