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Oh. My. Goodness.

Friday, Oct 4, 2013

* Oy

When GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady talks about being confident in the numbers, he isn’t talking about his campaign kitty.

Brady insists that polling data has him well ahead in the crowded, four-way race for Illinois governor.

“Our polling data shows that our numbers are strong statewide,” Brady told the Sun-Times on Thursday. “The voters no longer think of me as a regional candidate because of this showing in the last general election.”

Brady said he will close out this period having raised about $75,000 and having more than $275,000 cash on hand. [Emphasis added.]

$75K?

What?

You gotta be freaking kidding me, man.

* I searched the State Board of Elections’ website for Brady’s contributions during the third quarter of 2009 - the same point in the cycle we were at four years ago.

Brady raised over $219,000 back then - about three times more than he raised this past quarter.

* Meanwhile, Bruce Rauner has raised about $3 million since announcing his run and will report about $600K cash on hand

He’s spent around $2.4 million on TV ads, digital infrastructure, radio ads — as well as tens of thousands of dollars on consulting.

That’s a heckuva burn rate. The question now is if and/or when Rauner will run out of wealthy friends to contribute money and then be forced to bust the contribution cap. Has anyone seen any Rauner TV ads lately?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


45 Comments
  1. - Empty Chair - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:44 am:

    Rauner’s last A-1 listed Jeffrey Immelt. He’s clearly got some impressive contacts. I don’t see him running out of rich friends willing to part with a measly $5300 anytime soon. The question is whether he’ll be able to attract any PAC money and pull in some bigger checks.


  2. - wordslinger - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:44 am:

    No Rauner TV spots in Chicago metro for weeks, that I’ve noticed.

    Burned $2.4 million? When you milk that cash cow, do you get ice cream?

    What in the world is Brady doing? Is he not capable of raising money, or is he just not trying?

    Not quite the time to sit on your lead and run out the clock, lol.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:45 am:

    Bill Brady can’t even afford to pay attention.

    Bruce Rauner’s burn rate has to be married to his poll numbers. At some point all these wealthy donors need to see where their “pal” Bruse is before giving, or bundling more cash. Way high of a “burn rate”, even if you have it, unless you know it is moving numbers to justify the high rate.


  4. - Snucka - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:47 am:

    On what could he possibly have spent over $2.5 million already??

    Also, Rich, is the $5,300 limit (and others) in effect through the primary? Or does it reset after Jan. 1?


  5. - Norseman - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:49 am:

    Thankfully, Rich hasn’t checked on the Oswego Willy for Governor campaign fund. We’re depending on a grassroots groundswell to stealthily overwhelm the opposition.


  6. - Snucka - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:50 am:

    Willy hit on another good point. Whether he runs out of wealthy friends may not be the issue. The problem for Rauner may be that the money isn’t working. He can raise and spend a billion dollars, but if he is still in third or fourth place in a couple of months it may not matter.


  7. - Norseman - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:53 am:

    To the post: Looks like the enthusiasm for the old return candidates is about as high among the money folks as it appears to be among the rank and file.


  8. - Downstater - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:53 am:

    Brady would be a disaster for Republican. At least, he will not have Lt.Gov. Candidate Jason Plummer hanging around his neck this time.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:58 am:

    “Dear Bill Brady,

    You keep up the ‘Good Fight’. I am reminded every day by by a friend of yours that working real hard, and being ‘Right’, and just being, like, all you are, is the best way to win, and money really is not THAT important.

    Signed,

    Bob ‘Grogran’, CPA.

    p.s. - Jason says, ‘What up, Uncle Billy!’…”


  10. - Just Me - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:59 am:

    The only Rauner ad I’ve seen was on this blog, but I live in the heart of Chicago. Maybe their playing out on the west coast?

    http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/Felsenthal-Files/June-2013/Illinois-From-the-Mountains-to-the-Prairies/


  11. - Just Me - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 10:59 am:

    their = they’re


  12. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:00 am:

    Rich, you may not be able to automatically assume contribution caps will last until the Nov. 2014 elections.

    SCOTUS has already lined up a campaign finance case for this term where the plaintiffs seek to abolish campaign finance limits once and for all and overturn the Buckley v. Valeo precedent that distinguished between contributions and expenditures. I doubt the Roberts court would take the case if there weren’t 5 votes to bust contribution caps.

    Perhaps well know more when argument comes next Tuesday.


  13. - ZC - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:13 am:

    I’d be surprised if the Supreme Court burned the individual contribution limits, nationwide. In other words, they allowed individuals to give unlimited amounts to candidates for office. Three-four votes, sure, but I think it’s a steep climb to five.

    I could believe Roberts would take the case because what they almost certainly will do, is strip away the absolute amount anyone can give through contributions - so in the future you can give an unlimited number of $2600 checks, to as many different candidates as you want, without hitting an aggregate limit. That by itself would be a significant change (and a nightmare for DC lobbyists, who can never plead again, “I’ve maxed out.”)

    But even if they really surprised me - which could happen! - keep in mind this is a federal case. I would be really gobsmacked, if the Supreme Court in THIS case simultaneously declared contribution limits to be unconstitutional, both under the US Constitution and under all 50 state constitutions. That would probably be the next logical step, but it’s the same deal with how _DC v. Heller_ begat _McDonald v. Chicago_ - a preordained conclusion, but they’ll still resolve it via a second decision, to be tidy.

    So I wouldn’t count on this case being a factor, if I were Rauner. It sounds actually like the guy who really needs the contribution caps to go away is Brady. Sounds like he desperately needs to find his own Foster Friess.


  14. - Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:14 am:

    $800k/month for 2013 Q3? Wowzers. So…$4.8M more just to maintain through the primary when spending should really be increasing dramatically. I’m sure he’s got tons of friends who can max, but at $5300 per, he’d need more than 900 of them just to maintain. Does he have that many?

    Should we start the pool now on when the caps come off? I’m gonna go with December 31.

    And suddenly Rutherford’s purported $1.2M on hand doesn’t look so shabby. Not sure what Rauner’s cash has bought him so far, other than some endorsements, and what, 10 points?


  15. - Veritas - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:19 am:

    The difference between Rauner and Quinn is that Rauner has given considerably more money to Democratic candidates and causes.


  16. - J. Nolan - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:29 am:

    Wowzers on Brady! At some point it becomes almost insulting to his “supporters” (aka ppl who remember his name from last time) because he obviously is not taking this very seriously.

    As for Rauner - it is really important what the next poll says because it will tell us what that 2.4 million got him. If it still has him in the middle of the pack then Rutherford is sittin pretty with about twice as much cash (1.2 million)on hand as the next guy (Rauner 600k). I presume Dillard will be in the middle of Brady and Rauner in money.


  17. - J. Nolan - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:30 am:

    ^We both used the word wowzers…Wowzers!


  18. - 47th Ward - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:32 am:

    OK, dumb question, but maybe somebody can help me out: if Rauner ponies up more of his own money and breaks the cap, does Rauner get to go back to his donors and raise more money or does they remain capped?

    Because at the rate Rutherford, Dillard and especially Brady are (not) raising money, allowing them to go back to previous donors for more isn’t exactly a threat to Rauner at this point. In Brady’s case, if the caps were doubled, he’d only get an additional $75K from his 3rd quarter donors, assuming they all doubled up.

    That ain’t gonna be enough.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:36 am:

    - Norseman -,

    I like to say that the campaign, financially, is exactly where I expected it. Once someone figures out what that quote even means, then we should be up to about the amount needed to get a box of coffee from DD in the kitty.

    To the Post,

    Is Dillard silent so far?

    I figured after the “shot” Rutherford took at the ‘Debt’ thing, Dillard would want to come out and show …some … financial strength.


  20. - Endangered Moderate Species - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:37 am:

    Rauner’s cash-on-hand is keeping his opponents from going on the attack. They know that once they throw the first rock, the battle begins. Aaron Schock knows the capability of Rauner.


  21. - Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:47 am:

    ===does Rauner get to go back to his donors and raise more money===

    Yes.


  22. - Will Caskey - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:50 am:

    Maybe he’s so far ahead he doesn’t NEED to raise money.

    I’ve worked for candidates who have actually said that.


  23. - Soccermom - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 11:58 am:

    Dear Mr. Rauner,

    I am available for consulting at extremely unreasonable rates. As long as you’re throwing money away, you might as well throw it in my direction.

    Sincerely,

    Soccermom


  24. - votecounter - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 12:12 pm:

    Brady says ‘Our polling Data” How’s he polling/ With what money? The wife and kids at home at night calling across the state? Rauner has to be polling with that kind of burn rate you would think he would be leaking poll results if he was leading or even moving. Nothing but silence!
    I know I keep saying this but this situation is screaming for other candidates to get in this race.


  25. - 32nd Ward Roscoe Village - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 12:20 pm:

    He is sending out mailers. A member of my household gave money to a national Republican candidate many years ago, so is now on the list to get GOP junk mail. I’ve seen three or four mailers from Rauner in the past few months.


  26. - otoh - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 12:28 pm:

    ==Bruce Rauner’s burn rate has to be married to his poll numbers.==

    Has he really moved the needle? The only things hi ads made me aware of were the majestic mountains of Illinois.


  27. - 4 percent - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 12:46 pm:

    Rauner will have to decide if he wants to crack open his checkbook any further than the current $249,000 he’s contributed. If so, the limits come off for every one of his primary opponents. They can’t match him obviously but will be able to raise bigger chunks.


  28. - Langhorne - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 12:47 pm:

    (In your best lewis black voice) bill brady is de-luuuuuus-sional

    I just dont see the voters out there brady thinks will magically fall in place. And do so without any money to speak of. Maybe he is deluding himself because: he only talks to those who already like him, and, he thinks all he has to do is cover the margin he won and lost by last time round


  29. - Skeeter - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 12:52 pm:

    $75,000 raised and a choice of Rodriguez as Lt. Gov.

    Could it get any worse for Brady?


  30. - Skeeter - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 12:57 pm:

    Somebody has got to have a “come to Jesus” meeting with Brady and let him know he’s not up against Dan Proft and Adam Andrzejewski this time.

    I don’t know if Brady is calling the shots or if he’s got somebody without a clue running things, but they need to make some major changes.

    He can’t just stake out the position on the far right and watch his opponents roll over.

    He made a terrible choice for Lt. Gov. and now he’s stuck with her, but there is still time to get on the right track.

    Rauner and Rutherford are serious about this race. Brady needs to start acting like he’s got a real path to both the nomination and November, or he’s going to end up in last place.


  31. - OneMan - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 1:08 pm:

    75K… Ouch so Dan has out raised him by 4.5 to 1… ouch….


  32. - Conservative Republican - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 1:10 pm:

    Despite the snark, no one has refuted Brady’s contention regarding the polling in his favor. If any of his opponents were able to call him on that one, they would have….unless keeping a weaker Brady in the game plays into their primary strategy.


  33. - Robert the Bruce - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 1:17 pm:

    With just $75k raised, and he spent some of it on a poll? Was the first question “Assuming he has money to get his message out, which of the following messages do you prefer?”


  34. - AuH2O - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 1:17 pm:

    I think we would have some answers on the “burn rate” question with an ever popular We Ask America poll. Does anyone know of a popular Springfield scribe who has a tendency to commission these types of things???


  35. - Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 1:21 pm:

    ===Does anyone know of a popular Springfield scribe who has a tendency to commission these types of things?===

    I’ll put it in the queue


  36. - votecounter - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 1:47 pm:

    Rutherford has a very hard road ahead. He is a elected statewide with high name recognition he should be leading or at least at 3o-35%. Even if he spends his money it seems to me people have made up their mind on him. Rauner seems to be stuck and Dillard too. The fact that people are even talking about Brady shows how weird this cycle is.


  37. - wordslinger - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 1:51 pm:

    –Rutherford has a very hard road ahead. He is a elected statewide with high name recognition he should be leading or at least at 3o-35%.–

    In a four-way race that includes the last nominee, the guy who finished second and a new rich guy?

    A 30-35% lead would defy reason.


  38. - Ahoy! - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 1:54 pm:

    –The voters no longer think of me as a regional candidate because of this showing in the last general election.”–

    Dude, you lost to Pat Quinn, probably the most vulnerable incumbent Governor in these United States. That’s not a good showing.

    Did Brady release the poll numbers or just mention that he was looking good in the numbers he wouldn’t release?


  39. - votecounter - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 2:01 pm:

    I meant he should have started at that level of support. When JBT ran (From the Treasurers office) she started and stayed in the upper 30’s (38% I believe) I just thought Dan would be the same.


  40. - J. Nolan - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 2:29 pm:

    JBT was running against people with NO name recognition. Dillard and Brady have just as much name recognition as Dan. Dan did in fact start out leading some polls with around 25-28% early on. I would say everyone has unusually high name recognition for a four way race, with maybe the exception of Rauner, but he has ads up already.


  41. - J. Nolan - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 2:31 pm:

    …and JBT had been in treasurers office since the mid 90’s.


  42. - Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 3:05 pm:

    Sheez–what’s up with THAT? And, almost needless to say, he’s going to have to do far BETter than THAT, or, oops, we might be ALREADY smell that “toast” burnin’ in the KITCHen…!


  43. - chad - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 3:25 pm:

    Polling at this point is interesting, but the fundamentals are still more indicative of candidate viability at this point. Fundamental #1 is cash, and neither Dillard nor Brady are performing anywhere near a credible level. Dillard is still opaque about how much cash he actually has given his unpaid debt. Rutherford is more than respectable at this point. A million in the bank is assurance of survial against a 2-month ad onslaught. Advantage Rauner for cash, but there seems to be evidence of overspending without meaningful result (yet). Fundamental #2 is field organization. Brady appears to be in a few backwater areas, but for the most part the network that was built for him last general election is gone, and he has little to show for now. Dan has his typical fleet of rowboats plying the waters of every township and county, eight field directors, and continues his multi-year tear across the state. Geez, this guy is starting to remind me of Tim Johnson on the tredmill calling every resident of his district, although Dan pulls it off more gracefully. I mean, my mom gets birthday cards from this guy. Kim is interesting, because he will deploy into the asian and white ethnic areas to mine crossovers inclined to support “cousin Dan”, who has been visiting those ethnic chicken dinners for years. Kirk has some legacy county organizations for him. Rauner has a few paid folks. Fundamental #3 at this point is earned media, and I do not have much of a statewide handle on that, other than to say that because Rauner has few issue positions, he can’t have very much in that department. And, Kirk has been adopting positions that are too far to his “normal” right. I will enjoy seeing poll results after the airwaves light-up, but until then Rutherford seems to be doing best at working the fundamentals of this timeframe.


  44. - Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 3:50 pm:

    That was meant to read above “…ALREADY smellin’ that…!”


  45. - Makandadawg - Friday, Oct 4, 13 @ 4:29 pm:

    Rauner is running around in deep southern Illinois today to collect what little money there is down here. He was talking so fast on the radio this morning that all I could understand him saying was the “it’s all the unions fault”.


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