“Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out…”
looks like its time to deviate back to the mean-republicans should do very very well next 10 years…..
- grand old partisan - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:14 am:
Well, that’s one way to look at it, I guess. Here’s another way….
The cycle that led into the new century (1998) was a 4 -2 split in favor of the GOP. The first two cycles of the new century (2002 and 2006) were more lopsidedly in favor of the Dems, 5-1 and 6-0, respectively. But the 2010 cycle was a tie, 3-3. And there is a good chance that the 2014 cycle could be a tie yet again.
So, were ’06 and ’10 really the start of a new trend, or were they actually just outliers? Only time will tell.
At this point, I believe that Quinn will win again. Rutherford is probably the most centrist of the four repub candidates, but unless the other three divide the hard-right voters, I doubt that he will get past Brady. Brady seems to have the name recognition necessary to win the primary by older, more conservative voters.
I don’t know why people claim Rutherford is a “moderate.”
He’s got a documented record of being pro-gun, pro-Life, anti-new rights for undocumented immigrants, and he still says firmly that he’s opposed to same-sex marriage. Sounds pretty conservative to me.
- grand old partisan - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:45 am:
too obvious – I’d submit that a candidate with a documented record of being pro-gun control, pro-choice, pro-amnesty and a supporter of same sex marriage would be just as liberal as you consider Rutherford to be conservative. Being a moderate isn’t about the person’s position, so much as it’s about their willingness to compromise and work with others who disagree.
Jim Oberweis will either make it “4″, or Drag … an entire Ticket … Party … Legislative Caucuses …
There is a very good reason My Party does NOT need Slytherin House Republican Jim Oberweis at the top of the ILGOP Ticket…
“3″.
Someone tackle Jim Oberweis, tell him to stop destroying the ILGOP and look at the 3 that have won, and then look at your “black helicopters”, “Politcial and Governmental” Ice Cream Days, the Torches and Pitchforks Slyther House Republican Jim Oberweis attracts, and you want to tell my that is a “Good” top of the ticket?
I’d say that Rutherford is a conservative who doesn’t take hard lines, works with others, and has won statewide in Illinois. However, that would probably make him a liberal according to Ted Cruz.
- grand old partisan - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 11:02 am:
I’m curious, who on the Democratic ticket would qualify as “moderate?”
Mark Kirk won the highest profile race with large national spending (this was Obama’s seat). He shows the GOP the path toward relevancy, if the GOP ever looks for it.
===I’m curious, who on the Democratic ticket would qualify as “moderate?”===
I guess that depends on your definition of moderate. I’d say the Democratic ticket is closer to where most Illinoisans are on a host of issues, but certainly not on each and every issue. Quinn signed the income tax hike, marriage equality, abolition of the death penalty, pays the full pension payment, etc. He’s also in favor of a tougher pension reform measure than his union supporters want and has proposed several facility closures designed to reduce state spending. So there are some liberal positions, and others that are more conservative. And as I said, I think the rest of the Democratic ticket would have similar positions, certainly not just liberal across the board. Illinois is a Democratic leaning state, but it isn’t a liberal paradise.
But to your point, Illinois Democrats aren’t attacking each other for each and every divergence from Party Dogma. Brandon Phelps sponsored the Concealed Carry law. Lots of Illinois Democrats are pro-life. We saw the Black Caucus split over marriage equality, and while that debate got a bit nasty at times, we’re not seeing the pro-marriage forces go after Democrats in primaries.
That’s why the subject of which Republican is a moderate is instructive. The Republican who is willing to buck the Party on certain issues to be more in-line with the majority of Illinoisans stands a better chance of winning. Pro-choice Republicans, historically, have done very well statewide in Illinois.
This battle is entirely within one party, so it doesn’t really matter which Democrats are moderates.
===But to your point, Illinois Democrats aren’t attacking each other for each and every divergence from Party Dogma. Brandon Phelps sponsored the Concealed Carry law. Lots of Illinois Democrats are pro-life. We saw the Black Caucus split over marriage equality, and while that debate got a bit nasty at times, we’re not seeing the pro-marriage forces go after Democrats in primaries.===
Cannoli for you, - 47th Ward -, Ed Kelly would be proud. Well said.
The “hurdle” that is finally cleared, for me, to believe that the corner has been turned is when - 47th Ward -’s statement can be turned into a statement about the ILGOP, and it being true.
Purity v. Majority, adn right now in the ILGOP, its “Pick One” and there shouldn’t be a question, it should be, “Majority” all day, every day.
So what some of you are saying is that Rutherford is a conservative, but he’s still okay because he doesn’t really stand up for his positions. Got it.
- Robert the Bruce - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 1:25 pm:
==The cycle that led into the new century (1998) was a 4 -2 split in favor of the GOP.==
ok, so let’s go further back and include those 4 victors in the data set to see how many represented the more conservative end of the republican party and managed to get elected to statewide office.
Peter Fitzgerald, George Ryan, Jim Ryan, Topinka. Of those, perhaps only Fitzgerald represented the conservative side of the republican party? And remember he defeated the ethically-challenged Moseley-Braun.
Our state and nation are drowning in debt and mismanagement, and all the Republicans want to talk about or care about is ‘guns, gays, God, and abortion”! These things never used to be GOP core issues, when the party actually won in Illinois! Nominate Brady and you lose again!
Just an observation: Even among us, the “He’s a Moderate” / “No! He’s a Conservative” arguments–especially prior to a Primary are really, really getting old.
And when that happens, I’m guessing it’s about the time that the average voter who doesn’t follow campaigns more closely, is becoming pretty aware of it and exactly what it is.
- Formerly Known As... - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 3:55 pm:
=== and all the Republicans want to talk about or care about is ‘guns, gays, God, and abortion” ===
Ahhh, yes. Because Illinois Democrats never want to talk about things like same-sex marriage, medical marijuana, expanding gambling, gun control, taxing bullets, parental notification or any of the other hot-button issues that have frequently popped up in speeches, interviews and fundraising appeals during the past year.
Those Republicans must be the same party that controls both legislative chambers as well as the governor’s office but hasn’t yet managed to deliver a solution addressing our chronic “mismanagement”, pension “crisis” or anemic unemployment rate, either.
Darn those Republicans, always talking about “guns, gays, God and abortion”, unlike those Democrats who are so focused on “core issues”.
- MrJM - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 9:34 am:
Republicans obviously need to nominate candidates who are much, much more conservative.
– MrJM
- GOP - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 9:36 am:
Dillard will make it 4!
- OneMan - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 9:41 am:
Hey it’s only 2013
- downstate commissioner - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 9:57 am:
GOP- you misspelled Rutherford….
- Hyperbolic Chamber - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:04 am:
“Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out…”
- warhed - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:10 am:
looks like its time to deviate back to the mean-republicans should do very very well next 10 years…..
- grand old partisan - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:14 am:
Well, that’s one way to look at it, I guess. Here’s another way….
The cycle that led into the new century (1998) was a 4 -2 split in favor of the GOP. The first two cycles of the new century (2002 and 2006) were more lopsidedly in favor of the Dems, 5-1 and 6-0, respectively. But the 2010 cycle was a tie, 3-3. And there is a good chance that the 2014 cycle could be a tie yet again.
So, were ’06 and ’10 really the start of a new trend, or were they actually just outliers? Only time will tell.
- downstate commissioner - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:20 am:
At this point, I believe that Quinn will win again. Rutherford is probably the most centrist of the four repub candidates, but unless the other three divide the hard-right voters, I doubt that he will get past Brady. Brady seems to have the name recognition necessary to win the primary by older, more conservative voters.
- too obvious - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:27 am:
I don’t know why people claim Rutherford is a “moderate.”
He’s got a documented record of being pro-gun, pro-Life, anti-new rights for undocumented immigrants, and he still says firmly that he’s opposed to same-sex marriage. Sounds pretty conservative to me.
- grand old partisan - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:45 am:
too obvious – I’d submit that a candidate with a documented record of being pro-gun control, pro-choice, pro-amnesty and a supporter of same sex marriage would be just as liberal as you consider Rutherford to be conservative. Being a moderate isn’t about the person’s position, so much as it’s about their willingness to compromise and work with others who disagree.
- MrJM - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:48 am:
Rutherford is conservative. He also represents just 33% of that list.
– MrJM
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:54 am:
Jim Oberweis will either make it “4″, or Drag … an entire Ticket … Party … Legislative Caucuses …
There is a very good reason My Party does NOT need Slytherin House Republican Jim Oberweis at the top of the ILGOP Ticket…
“3″.
Someone tackle Jim Oberweis, tell him to stop destroying the ILGOP and look at the 3 that have won, and then look at your “black helicopters”, “Politcial and Governmental” Ice Cream Days, the Torches and Pitchforks Slyther House Republican Jim Oberweis attracts, and you want to tell my that is a “Good” top of the ticket?
“3″.
Give it up already, for My Party’s sake.
- J. Nolan - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 10:58 am:
I’d say that Rutherford is a conservative who doesn’t take hard lines, works with others, and has won statewide in Illinois. However, that would probably make him a liberal according to Ted Cruz.
- grand old partisan - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 11:02 am:
I’m curious, who on the Democratic ticket would qualify as “moderate?”
- PublicServant - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 11:16 am:
Judy needs a twitter account…@TopinkaBaarJudy. Come on Judy. Get with it.
- Ahoy! - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 11:21 am:
Mark Kirk won the highest profile race with large national spending (this was Obama’s seat). He shows the GOP the path toward relevancy, if the GOP ever looks for it.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 11:45 am:
===I’m curious, who on the Democratic ticket would qualify as “moderate?”===
I guess that depends on your definition of moderate. I’d say the Democratic ticket is closer to where most Illinoisans are on a host of issues, but certainly not on each and every issue. Quinn signed the income tax hike, marriage equality, abolition of the death penalty, pays the full pension payment, etc. He’s also in favor of a tougher pension reform measure than his union supporters want and has proposed several facility closures designed to reduce state spending. So there are some liberal positions, and others that are more conservative. And as I said, I think the rest of the Democratic ticket would have similar positions, certainly not just liberal across the board. Illinois is a Democratic leaning state, but it isn’t a liberal paradise.
But to your point, Illinois Democrats aren’t attacking each other for each and every divergence from Party Dogma. Brandon Phelps sponsored the Concealed Carry law. Lots of Illinois Democrats are pro-life. We saw the Black Caucus split over marriage equality, and while that debate got a bit nasty at times, we’re not seeing the pro-marriage forces go after Democrats in primaries.
That’s why the subject of which Republican is a moderate is instructive. The Republican who is willing to buck the Party on certain issues to be more in-line with the majority of Illinoisans stands a better chance of winning. Pro-choice Republicans, historically, have done very well statewide in Illinois.
This battle is entirely within one party, so it doesn’t really matter which Democrats are moderates.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 11:50 am:
===But to your point, Illinois Democrats aren’t attacking each other for each and every divergence from Party Dogma. Brandon Phelps sponsored the Concealed Carry law. Lots of Illinois Democrats are pro-life. We saw the Black Caucus split over marriage equality, and while that debate got a bit nasty at times, we’re not seeing the pro-marriage forces go after Democrats in primaries.===
Cannoli for you, - 47th Ward -, Ed Kelly would be proud. Well said.
The “hurdle” that is finally cleared, for me, to believe that the corner has been turned is when - 47th Ward -’s statement can be turned into a statement about the ILGOP, and it being true.
Purity v. Majority, adn right now in the ILGOP, its “Pick One” and there shouldn’t be a question, it should be, “Majority” all day, every day.
- Michelle Flaherty - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 12:00 pm:
The statewide map is obviously gerrymandered.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 12:18 pm:
- Michelle Flaherty -,
You have yet to disappoint. My admiration for you is boundless.
To the Post,
Maybe My Party needs to think about and revisit the “Residency Rules” again, but in reverse? (Alan Keyes in 180 Degrees)…
I am sure there is a Moderate in another state that will run for us(?) “Right”?
- DuPage - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 12:25 pm:
Republican statewide wins? Kind of like the Illinois lottery ad “anything is possible”.
- too obvious - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 12:42 pm:
So what some of you are saying is that Rutherford is a conservative, but he’s still okay because he doesn’t really stand up for his positions. Got it.
- Robert the Bruce - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 1:25 pm:
==The cycle that led into the new century (1998) was a 4 -2 split in favor of the GOP.==
ok, so let’s go further back and include those 4 victors in the data set to see how many represented the more conservative end of the republican party and managed to get elected to statewide office.
Peter Fitzgerald, George Ryan, Jim Ryan, Topinka. Of those, perhaps only Fitzgerald represented the conservative side of the republican party? And remember he defeated the ethically-challenged Moseley-Braun.
- formerpolitico - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 1:52 pm:
Our state and nation are drowning in debt and mismanagement, and all the Republicans want to talk about or care about is ‘guns, gays, God, and abortion”! These things never used to be GOP core issues, when the party actually won in Illinois! Nominate Brady and you lose again!
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 3:18 pm:
Just an observation: Even among us, the “He’s a Moderate” / “No! He’s a Conservative” arguments–especially prior to a Primary are really, really getting old.
And when that happens, I’m guessing it’s about the time that the average voter who doesn’t follow campaigns more closely, is becoming pretty aware of it and exactly what it is.
- Formerly Known As... - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 3:55 pm:
=== and all the Republicans want to talk about or care about is ‘guns, gays, God, and abortion” ===
Ahhh, yes. Because Illinois Democrats never want to talk about things like same-sex marriage, medical marijuana, expanding gambling, gun control, taxing bullets, parental notification or any of the other hot-button issues that have frequently popped up in speeches, interviews and fundraising appeals during the past year.
Those Republicans must be the same party that controls both legislative chambers as well as the governor’s office but hasn’t yet managed to deliver a solution addressing our chronic “mismanagement”, pension “crisis” or anemic unemployment rate, either.
Darn those Republicans, always talking about “guns, gays, God and abortion”, unlike those Democrats who are so focused on “core issues”.
That criticism can easily cut both ways.
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 4:16 pm:
Hmm…interesting perspective, FKA. Who would have thought?
- Barton Lorimor - Monday, Nov 18, 13 @ 5:55 pm:
PublicServant - JBT has TWO Twitter accounts. @CompTopinka is for governmental operations and communications. @ElectTopinka is used by the campaign.
- Liandro - Tuesday, Nov 19, 13 @ 12:17 am:
Yes, and how well has Illinois been run in the 21st Century?