LIVE session coverage...
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Sullivan may be right

Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014

* Illinois Radio Network

If Illinois lawmakers want to extend the income tax increase beyond this year, their decision probably will come late.

This is the assessment of State Rep. Ed Sullivan (R-Mundelein):

“I don’t know that Speaker Madigan would like to put that out before an election, so this is all being driven by the election. If by some chance his candidate, Gov. Quinn, would lose, I think he (Madigan) would rather put that on the Republicans to figure that out,” he said.

If Gov. Quinn loses there will be huge pressure by many liberals in and out of the General Assembly to extend the tax hike indefinitely. But Sullivan has a pretty good handle on how Madigan usually thinks. MJM could very well just announce that the people have spoken and then toss this hot potato to whomever wins and maybe offer to work with him if and/or when he winds up in over his head - as long as he brings Republican votes to the table.

Your thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


26 Comments
  1. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 11:58 am:

    Well it’s hardly good government, but yeah, I can see Madigan allowing the tax hike to sunset if Quinn loses. Politically, making the GOP governor either raise the income tax or slash state spending will enhance Madigan’s position.

    It’ll suck for the rest of us though, who depend on Illinois government to function well, provide needed services and pay its bills.

    Anyone who understands basic math knows the income tax has to stay at 5% permanently. Anyone who believes in fair and effective government knows we need a graduated income tax that generates more revenue.

    If someone argues otherwise, they either don’t understand math or they don’t understand state government.


  2. - Norseman - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    Can’t disagree. If this happens, God help the citizens of the State of Illinois.


  3. - OneMan - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    Seems the most Madigan (and in general politically wise) move.


  4. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    That makes a lot of sense.

    Unless, of course, Madigan truly is concerned about cementing his legacy and sincerely believes this tax increase is the best thing for the future of Illinois.

    In which case, he could surprise everyone and do what he thinks is “best for our state” rather than what is “best for me” and push through the extension with the help of retiring lawmakers - just as he did last time. Sort of a parting gift to the next generation.

    But that hypothetical scenario assumes Madigan would put the interests of the state ahead of his own… and it’s a pretty big assumption to make.


  5. - Ghost - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:06 pm:

    It makes a lot of sense. Let the tax hike expire to take it away as election fodder; then let the next grp of elected officials hang the budget albatross around their neck without the money and start picking which schools and social services they want to ax to pay for it.

    For my part, I think its easier to stomach locking in the hike for taxpayers then it will be to retunr the money to them, and then have to come back and take it a second time… that is going to sour a lot more people then just making this permanent, but since so many politcians want to run on tax breaks, give them what they want; and when they win they get to figure it out how to actually run govenremnt on hope and rainbows.


  6. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:21 pm:

    Very plausible scenario. I think a lot of us here were already expecting the income tax sunset, if addressed, would be dealt with in the lame duck session.


  7. - Big Muddy - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    =run government on hopes and rainbows.=

    How about we accept that state government doesn’t need to be doing all the things it is doing? Narrow the scope & do those things well and at a sustainable cost.

    If you look at the projected budget deficits ahead cuts are coming to programs whether we like it or not.


  8. - muon - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:29 pm:

    A six month budget passed in May would set up a lame duck session in Jan to deal with the extension or another tax to replace it. If the progressive income tax is on the ballot it would give a reason to say that budgeting beyond six months should wait on the voter’s decision.


  9. - Just Me - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:33 pm:

    It was unfathomable to the Brady camp four years ago that the GA would not do a tax increase if he had won. I remember saying something about it to a top staffer and he was absolutely sure that the liberal leaders of the GA would still do a tax increase during the lame duck if Quinn lost. That is when I realized that Quinn was going to be re-elected.


  10. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    ==How about we accept that state government doesn’t need to be doing all the things it is doing?==

    That might be true, but the budget cuts that would have to take place if the tax increase isn’t made permanent would pretty much devastate state government.


  11. - Moving on - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 12:58 pm:

    –”State Rep. Patricia R. Bellock (R-Hinsdale) says lawmakers who want the tax to go down must start working now to adjust the state budget so it can handle the loss of $2 billion in revenue.”–

    Bingo. You want it? Careful, cause you just might get it, and you’re going to need a plan.

    Folks who want to maintain current revenue and funding levels are sort of fighting an invisible enemy, given that no one from the “cut” camp will provide plausible specifics.


  12. - Arizona Bob - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    If either of union owned candidates Rutherford or Dillard win, there’s no doubt in my mind they’ll keep the tax sucking the state dry and further reducing revenues due to loss of jobs and employers.

    There are things that could be done here to show good faith and get our finances in order.

    First, to deal with our infrastructure issues, we can get rid of economically damaging “prevailing wage” rules on non-Federal projects and drop capital costs for schools, municipalties and state government by 25-40% for the same service.

    We could show that we’re serious about the pension problems by only allowing 401Ks with state contributions dependent on state finances for all new TRS, SURS, CPS and other state non-contractually protected pensions.

    My guess is that the quality and quantity of applicants for public jobs wouldn’t drop an iota.

    We need to baseline pensions to lifetime contributions, similarly to Social Security benefit calculations, to give pensions fairly comparable to what participants contributed. This would save substantial unfunded costs for double dippers and reduce unfair end of career “spiking”.

    We could privatize investigation of Fraud and abuse state programs like Medicaid and state grants, and give the investigating company a percentage of the savings. Currently, there’s VERY little incentive to end the cheating.

    We could also fix the horrendous Education Labor Relations Act problems created in Illinois.

    Taking away the power for public school staff to strike (as is the case in 41 other states) is the only way to control spiraling, ineffective public education spending in Illinois. Oh, vouchers to fund the student instead of the system would be of a great help in improving the quality and cost effectiveness of education in Illinois, but that’ll take some time.

    We also need to address the education funding formula in K-12 education. It should become a safety net rather than an entitlement. In many suburban districts, they get about 10% of their revenues from the state, but they can afford to pay gym teachers $120K for nine months after 20 years experience. I think there are better ways for a bankrupt state to allocate resources.

    Of course, Quinn, Dillard, and Rutherford wouldn’t touch these ncessary steps, because their union benefactors won’t let them.

    Bottom line is that we need to increase revenues by growing the Illinois economy, which now is considered the WORST corrupt culture for job and business growth in the nation.

    Lower taxes, stop the “incentive crony capitalism”, fix fraud in spending and seriously address the pension issues and MAYBE businesses will consider coming or expanding here again. Much of our deficits are from driving jobs, revenue and income from the state for the benefit of a minority made up of unions and crony scammers.

    The only ones who MIGHT be able to tackle these issues is Rauner.


  13. - Siriusly - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 1:25 pm:

    If Quinn loses no way Madigan does this in veto. You won congratulations, good luck.


  14. - Big Muddy - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 1:25 pm:

    To the post.
    Sullivan is probably right on this one. The Repub’s should have a plan for the tax sunset. I hold little hope of them actually having one however. That is why the GOP is where it is in this state.


  15. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 1:34 pm:

    If Quinn loses, Madigan will let the new guy wear the jacket.

    Careful what you wish for, especially you folks downstate who rely the most on GRF, you might get it.


  16. - fed up - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 1:40 pm:

    47th Ward.

    “If someone argues otherwise, they either don’t understand math or they don’t understand state government.”

    So Quinn, Madigan, & Cullerton either dont understand math or state government. Since they all felt sunsetting the tax was a good idea.They didnt get one GOP vote and did it in a lame duck session.
    Interesting position 47 agree with me or your just ignorant.
    Do I think the tax needs to stay yes, but the whole im right, anyone that disagrees is stupid, is whats wrong with government on all levels today.


  17. - Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 1:47 pm:

    If Quinn gets beat by a Republican who runs on lowering taxes, it seems unlikely that Quinn would give them the money. And, if Quinn wouldn’t sign it, Madigan would not have his people cast a vote on it.

    On the other hand, if the graduated tax makes it to the ballot AND passes, it would be hard for anyone to argue that “the people” don’t want something done. In that case, who knows what would come out of the GA? Perhaps a 90% tax on all income above $10 million as a gift to Bruce.


  18. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 1:48 pm:

    Another way of putting it:

    Instead of arguing over which party is “wrong” or “worse” on this issue, what if they’re both wrong and acting selfishly?


  19. - cover - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    = stop the “incentive crony capitalism”, …

    The only ones who MIGHT be able to tackle these issues is Rauner. =

    Given his history with TRS, Rauner would certainly be an expert on crony capitalism, wouldn’t he?


  20. - Toure's Latte - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 2:26 pm:

    When it comes to what Madigan thinks, all I know is he is thinking way ahead of everyone.


  21. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 2:28 pm:

    ==but the whole im right, anyone that disagrees is stupid=

    I think what he said is that this is an issue of basic math. He’s not wrong about that.


  22. - captaingeorge - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 2:36 pm:

    If tax stays long term deficit cut in half per some studies. Flaw - assumes state spending will remain static and pension reduction which by itelf only drops the deficit a little over $1billion more than without it. If MM puts the issue in Republican’s lap, the pork may dry up. He needs the bacon to keep D in power in legislature. Interesting conundrum to sit back and watch unfold.


  23. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 2:38 pm:

    ===He needs the bacon to keep D in power in legislature.===

    Nah. You’d be surprised what a Republican governor with a massive budget deficit does for Democratic House prospects and for keeping HDems in line.


  24. - Anon - Wednesday, Jan 22, 14 @ 7:23 pm:

    Could the GOP gov pull a Thompson and raise taxes shortly after being elected 86on a cut-taxes platform?


  25. - ash - Thursday, Jan 23, 14 @ 8:29 am:

    Since Madigan has proven time and time again that good politics and power is more important than good governance for the state or its people, I’m with 47th ward. He may sink the ship even further, but he will remain the captain.


  26. - Joe Bidenopolous - Thursday, Jan 23, 14 @ 2:19 pm:

    I’m not sure where all of the folks are coming from who infer MJM “should” do something as a matter of good public policy in veto/lame duck if Quinn loses. If an R wins, likely on an anti-tax platform (perhaps Rutherford excluded), then the people have spoken and that R should come up with a plan. Half the state would accuse MJM of hijacking the process if he made it permanent in that scenario, and the Governor, whomever it may be, would have a ready-made whipping boy for four years.

    You win, you solve it. That’s what executive power is all about.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* The Speaker giveth...
* Consequences of failure
* Denny Hastert oddities and ends
* The attacks continue
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Android Pay won’t kill off Google Wallet; “brand new” app promised
        * Android Wear hits 4000 apps
        * Android M: First Look at Features (video)
        * Missed out on Google I/O 2015? Watch the keynote here!
        * Google publishes a list of the 18 best Material Design apps
        * Google Maps API on Android Wear now ready
        * How Google took a page from Apple to secure Android Pay

        * 15 Surprising Things You Can Make in a Rice Cooker
        * Snapchat in Process of Raising New Money, Values Company at Up to $16 Billion
        * Google Shows Off Shiny New Things at I/O
        * PSA: Make Sure You Have a Good Ice Pack in Your Freezer
        * Deadspin How Many Ways Can You Hide A Bribe?
        * Lobster Butter: An Awesome Use For Leftover Shells
        * Use a Takeout Menu as the Contact Photo for a Restaurant

        * White Sox MLB draft 2015 possibilities: Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt
        * Beck hopes to build on debut, earn return trip
        * White Sox hurt by miscues, can't bottle up O's
        * Orioles 6, White Sox 3: Settling for a split
        * White Sox hurt by miscues, can't bottle up O's
        * Dominant Sale sets up tight Game 1 victory
        * White Sox recall Webb for twin bill coverage

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * The attacks continue..
        * Police: Two dead in possible home invasion, ars.....
        * AFSCME supporting anti-strike legislation..
        * 15 people — including toddler — injured in Thur.....
        * Chicago’s heart of mercy for the disabled..
        * Denny Hastert oddities and ends..
        * Report: Mental health care in crisis in Illinois..
        * Gambling bill delay forecast..
        * Brother of top Illinois Republican named judge .....
        * AFSCME pushing bill to prevent state workers fr.....


        * Latest on Dennis Hastert: Judge to set initial court date
        * Court hearing set in in suspected Indiana serial killings
        * Timeline of the career of ex-US House Speaker Dennis Hastert
        * Hastert indictment offers few clues about alleged misconduct
        * Union presses measure to prevent strike, lockout
        * Illinois man cleared of 1999 murder freed from prison

        * Rauner agenda bills defeated in committee
        * Bill would prevent strike, lockout
        * AFSCME pushing bill to prevent state workers from going on strike, being locked out
        * Effort to expand Illinois gambling likely pushed into summer
        * Body camera rules, other police reforms approved by Illinois House
        * Springfield-area unemployment at seven-year low in April
        * April unemployment rates fall in all Illinois metro areas
        * Illinois Senate to consider plan for new casinos in Chicago, elsewhere
        * Report: Rauner's education secretary paid with funds from state agency facing cuts
        * Records show Rauner's edication secretary paid under IDHS

        * For this banker, a teenage pregnancy was a start, not an end
        * AG Madigan asks feds to halt looming downstate rate spike
        * Is there room for an Audi-only rental company at O'Hare?
        * Walgreens chairman says company never planned to leave U.S.
        * Did Dennis Hastert pay hush money?


          * 3 shot on their block, sisters find it harder to escape the violence
          * Animal cruelty charges filed after video catches dog walker kicking beagle
          * Hastert, the accidental House speaker, faces own scandal after noted career
          * Doctor: Dying son gives mom 'the gift of life'
          * Northwestern to settle suit involving book on Leopold and Loeb murder trial
          * 1 dead, 15 hurt in shootings across Chicago
          * Ex-top cop in Countryside to be sentenced Friday for fraud
          * Man charged in shooting of grandmother in McKinley Park
          * Mother, son found dead in SW Side home after possible home invasion, fire
          * Police: Indiana woman gets fork in eye in dispute over last rib at barbecue


          * Chicago school board to consider charter relocations, renewals
          * Ex-US Speaker Hastert indicted on bank-related charges
          * Vets' best friend: Two veterans trekking cross-country with the dogs that 'saved their lives'
          * After pig farm raises a stink, Hoosiers debate rural-city divide
          * City planners and neighborhood residents map out Chinatown’s future
          * City planners and neighborhood residents map out Chinatown's future
          * Sheriff calls on feds to investigate Puerto Rican agencies that send addicts to Chicago
          * Illinois prisons director resigns 2 months after taking job
          * Nebraska repeals death penalty, but U.S. isn't quite ready to abandon it
          * FIFA officials arrested on charges of bribery and corruption


          * Esther Cepeda: How sincere is Clinton's Latino outreach?
          * Rauner agenda bills defeated in committee
          * Our Opinion: What's next, Springfield? More jobs, please
          * Brent Glass: Leadership the answer to presidential museum's problems
          * E.J. Dionne: Ireland's 'social revolution'
          * Bill would prevent strike, lockout
          * Effort to expand Illinois gambling likely pushed into summer
          * Body camera rules, other police reforms approved by Illinois House
          * Springfield-area unemployment at seven-year low in April
          * Cinda Klickna: Threats do not equate to leadership


          * Daily Digest: Heritage Days Saturday in Pontiac
          * Officials eye river levels in Texas, with focus on Houston
          * Authorities say hunt for Crundwell assets will go on
          * Illinois judge gives 2 life sentences in Decatur killings
          * Hastert indictment offers few clues about alleged misconduct
          * SIU-Edwardsville says worker killed repaving campus road
          * The top 10 highest-paid female CEOs
          * Blatter's future as president at stake in FIFA election
          * Legislature could give final OK to parts of 2016 budget
          * Century old railroad depot moved to Maquoketa museum


          * Kirk on Hastert: ‘Troubling development'
          * Images: Volcano erupts in Japan, island evacuated
          * Hastert indictment offers few clues about alleged misconduct
          * Four unanswered questions about the Hastert indictment
          * Latest on flooding: River's threat reduced for Texas city

          * Commemorative coin may honor Hero Street v...
          * U.S. bill proposed to require breast-feedi...
          * U.S. Steel decides not to close Granite Ci...
          * Rep. Paul Ryan headlining Rep. Bob Dold fu...
          * Rodney Davis Takes Airport Listening Tours
          * Politicians pay tribute to veterans, look ...
          * Dold touts military spending bills in visi...
          * US Steel Granite City to remain open
          * Aviation talk in Svoy turns into debate on...
          * Illinois dialysis patients threatened by p...

          * Bill To Disclose the 28 Pages to be Introd......
          * Durbin in area to discuss trains carrying ......
          * Rockford and Peoria split $600K grant to c......
          * Durbin to speak in Collinsville about trai......
          * OPINION: Let’s do some railing...

          * Pataki candidacy revives media talk of the......
          * Susquenita football coach Mark Kirk resign......

          * Democrats crush Illinois' workers' comp system reform with faux amendment
          * Roskam and Ryan call for IRS to explain latest taxpayer information breach
          * Back to the future. Rauner’s turnaround agenda is a trip back in time.
          * Humboldt Park Beach and the priorities of corporations over neighborhood schools and neighborhood parks.
          * Beachwood Photo Booth: Eat At Odge's
          * Paging George Bailey, You Have A Call
          * From A Tiny ACORN, Scandal Grows
          * Starbucks Brewing Health Care Cuts?
          * Hang On! Economy Hasn't Hit Bottom Yet
          * Tribune Tower? Nice Condo With View


          * Celebrate National 529 Day with a College Illinois!® Savings Plan - Enrollment Open Through June 1st
          * State Announces Business Resource Event Coming to Aurora - ‘Make a Connection’ networking and resource program promotes economic growth of small and diverse businesses
          * Gulf War Veteran Reports for Duty as IDVA Women Vets Coordinator, Vet Business Champion
          * Illinois EPA Pollution Prevention Interns begin Twelve Week Program at Illinois Facilities - Students find cost-effective approaches for reducing environmental impacts
          * Vietnam Veteran Confirmed as IDVA Assistant Director




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller