SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Stock prices and the SOTS

Wednesday, Jan 29, 2014

* Based on a recent study, you might wanna call your broker and buy some stock in Illinois-based companies this morning. Crain’s

The study looked at 388 state of the state speeches between 2002 and 2010, along with data on 5,271 publicly traded firms, including 211 in Illinois. Software called Diction 6.0 counted the positive and negative words in the speeches and scored them for net optimism, certainty and activity.

“The results show that firms that are located in a state where the governor gives a more optimistic speech are more likely to significantly increase investment and employment, and experience higher abnormal returns, relative to similar firms located in a neighboring state,” the study concluded.

In 2005, for example, former Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s state of the state speech scored 26.45 for net optimism, twice the nine-year average for all speeches nationwide. Illinois stocks beat the market by 1.59 percent that week, according to the study. In the 2010 election year, Mr. Quinn’s speech scored only 6.61 for net optimism, and the state’s stocks fell 0.5 percent.

The study controlled for variables such as the size of companies, the health of a state’s economy and even the possibility of media leaks before the speeches — leaving the speech itself the only variable.

“I was really surprised by the results,” said Larry Fauver, another co-author and associate professor of finance at University of Tennessee in Knoxville. “Most people are skeptical. I’m comfortable saying the correlation is 100 percent.”

The market react was supposedly even stronger in election years.


- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    Crain’s index of Illinois publicly traded companies was up 35% last year, outperforming the DJIA and the S&P 500.

  2. - PoolGuy - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    CNBC did the same thing this morning with SOTU and certain stocks going up. good stuff Rich.

  3. - walker - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Maybe the Gov. reflects the mood of the “haves”, (I mean those wealthy “have-nots”), with whom he deals.

  4. - Anon - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 12:39 pm:

    == Crain’s index of Illinois publicly traded companies was up 35% last year, outperforming the DJIA and the S&P 500. ==

    How could that be if the Land of Lincoln is such a hellhole for business, as the GOP keeps insisting? Could it be the GOP is exaggerating a tad?

  5. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 1:31 pm:

    === How could that be if the Land of Lincoln is such a hellhole for business, as the GOP keeps insisting? ===

    Dominick’s, Office Depot, Health Care Centers of America and our December 2013 jobs report would like a word…

    Realistically, things are neither as bad as the GOP makes them out to be, nor as rosy as the Dems make them out to be. They both exaggerate.

  6. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 1:41 pm:

    I don’t think Dominicks closed because of “business climate.” Last I checked, people are still eating.

    My Dominicks closed, but the market now has a Mejiers, Whole Foods, Trader Joes, Ultra Foods, WalMart, Target, that were not there 10 and 20 years ago.

    In a low-margin business, that’s a lot of competition.

  7. - PoolGuy - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    with respect FKA, Office Depot/Office Max was a merger and they decided to stay in Florida where Office Depot already was. they didn’t go out of business. and ADM chose to say in Illinois too. neither Office Depot or ADM decisions were surprising. not all rosy but not all terrible as you say.

  8. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 2:55 pm:

    @PoolGuy & @Wordslinger - valid points, both.

    Those were just a few off the top of my head. Better examples may have been Cancer Treatment Centers of America, Modern Drop Forge, Olin Ammunition, Emco Chemical, or a quick google search before posting, lol.

    Or a link to this story from today’s Washington Post. Apparently Illinois has the 42nd-worst number of long-term unemployed:

    Regardless, agreed. The real picture is neither rosy nor pitch black at this point in time.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* One more day
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Sign of the times?
* Question of the day
* Exelon Just Received A $1.7 Billion Rate Increase Through The Market-Based Capacity Auction
* Today's number: 60
* No imminent power shut-offs
* Chamber all-in on impasse
* COGFA: State receipts down almost a billion dollars in first quarter
* Two racetracks will likely close
* "How many babies have to die?"
* Report: "A billion-dollar giveaway rife with failure"
* Frerichs warns of impasse consequences
* Quinn touring the state
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...







Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

    * Get your streaming fix with Getflix lifetime subscription [DEALS]
    * Philips Launches New Hue Bridge 2.0 With HomeKit Compatibility
    * ASUS ZenWatch 2 now available for purchase on Google Store
    * Adobe Updates Creative Cloud With Focus On Improved Workflows And Mobile, Announces New Portfolio Service
    * Microsoft reportedly prepping affordable flagship phone for spring; can you say Lumia 850?
    * Huawei Honor 7 to launch in India on October 7
    * iPhone 6s comfortably outsells 6s Plus, iPhone 6 still on the rise

    * Montas solid, but offense silenced in finale
    * Sale, Abreu among White Sox record setters
    * Tigers 6, White Sox 0: And Seth Smith shall protect them
    * Montas solid, but offense silenced in finale
    * Hahn discusses Garcia's future with White Sox
    * Eaton, Flowers to have offseason surgery
    * Garcia gives White Sox walk-off win vs. Tigers


    Main Menu
    Pundit rankings
    Subscriber Content
    Blagojevich Trial
    Updated Posts

    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    February 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    August 2010
    July 2010
    June 2010
    May 2010
    April 2010
    March 2010
    February 2010
    January 2010
    December 2009
    November 2009
    October 2009
    September 2009
    August 2009
    July 2009
    June 2009
    May 2009
    April 2009
    March 2009
    February 2009
    January 2009
    December 2008
    November 2008
    October 2008
    September 2008
    August 2008
    July 2008
    June 2008
    May 2008
    April 2008
    March 2008
    February 2008
    January 2008
    December 2007
    November 2007
    October 2007
    September 2007
    August 2007
    July 2007
    June 2007
    May 2007
    April 2007
    March 2007
    February 2007
    January 2007
    December 2006
    November 2006
    October 2006
    September 2006
    August 2006
    July 2006
    June 2006
    May 2006
    April 2006
    March 2006
    February 2006
    January 2006
    December 2005
    April 2005
    March 2005
    February 2005
    January 2005
    December 2004
    November 2004
    October 2004

    Blog*Spot Archives
    November 2005
    October 2005
    September 2005
    August 2005
    July 2005
    June 2005
    May 2005


    RSS Feed 2.0
    Comments RSS 2.0


    * Elgin schools CEO frustrated with lack of Legionella advice
    * Report shows steep increase in Indiana homeless students
    * Number of Chicago heroin overdoses hits 74 in 3 days
    * Car crashes into northern Illinois church, injuring 6
    * University of Illinois opens center for wounded veterans
    * Opponents upset Chief Illiniwek merchandise available online
    * Chicago man charged in 20-month-old's death acquitted
    * Health officials in Lake County encourage flu shots
    * Alleged improprieties force out 2 parole board members
    * Suburban officer accused of using excessive force sentenced

    * Budget impasse cuts services for domestic abuse victims
    * Weaver tapped to replace LaHood in Illinois Senate
    * Peoria city councilman tapped to replace Darin LaHood in Illinois Senate
    * Illinois budget impasse affecting emergency call systems
    * Legal marijuana stirs hope in southern Illinois town
    * Statehouse Insider: We have a problem. Is anyone there?
    * AP Exclusive: Legal marijuana stirs hope in southern Illinois town
    * Gov. Rauner: Illinois budget standoff 'could go on for a while'
    * State revenues down by nearly $1 billion in first quarter
    * Former Gov. Quinn makes speech in Champaign, says he has no plans to run for office

    * It's harvest time for Illinois' first medical marijuana crop
    * America's beaten-down factory worker is getting squeezed again
    * Exelon has tentative pact in Pepco deal, D.C. mayor says
    * Property tax hike adds up to 'a lot of hot dogs'
    * This tech company is 'ugly and boring'—and booming

    * Legal marijuana stirs hope in Illinois town
    * 'She said the security guard tried to sell her heroin, but she does crack'
    * Morning Spin: Garcia re-emerges as Emanuel critic
    * Drug charges filed after dozens of heroin overdose cases reported
    * Patrick Kane's defense attorney: More than just a 'porn lawyer'
    * City: 2015 Taste of Chicago made $320K profit
    * Man killed, 4 injured in shootings; man stabbed on CTA Green Line platform
    * Chicago priest removed for inappropriate adult relationship
    * Gary man dies after car crash in northwest Indiana
    * Police warn residents, businesses of robberies on Northwest, West sides

    * Paul Findley: Boehner deserves souvenir from Pope's visit
    * Budget impasse cuts services for domestic abuse victims
    * Weaver tapped to replace LaHood in Illinois Senate
    * Illinois budget impasse affecting emergency call systems
    * Legal marijuana stirs hope in southern Illinois town
    * Bernard Schoenburg: An added loss for workers at Illinois State Museum
    * Angie Muhs: Comics, the 'Power of the Press' and more
    * Bernard Schoenburg: An added loss for workers at Illinois State Museum
    * Statehouse Insider: We have a problem. Is anyone there?
    * Statehouse Insider: We have a problem. Is anyone there?

    * Podcast: Janice McAteer 10-05-15
    * Jim Dey: The story of Battlin' Billy Martin
    * Where's outrage for puppy's death?
    * 42nd annual C-U Stamp Club show set for next weekend
    * Life on Mars?
    * Pet Talk: Pets and pot
    * Owner upset with subdivision chiefs
    * Lady Gaga felt 'like herself'on show
    * This day in history, Oct. 5, 2015
    * Nonprofit updates suit to block Lucas museum site

    * District 156 teachers return to picket lines in McHenry
    * Syrian insurgent groups vow to attack Russian forces
    * United States, 11 Pacific Rim countries reach trade deal
    * Supreme Court declines to review insider trading case
    * House GOP in turmoil with new uncertainty in speaker race

    * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
    * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
    * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
    * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
    * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
    * CBD Oil, and politics
    * Simon considering state Senate bid
    * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
    * Shutdown? State may not notice
    * Rep. Bob Dold

    * Judiciary Committee Reaches Agreement on P......

    * Political Newcomer James Marter To Cease O......
    * POLITICO Illinois Playbook: DUCKWORTH blas......

    * Rahm blowing campaign smoke.
    * What happened to my NEA RA New Business Item on the Confederate flag? I just received an answer.
    * October 29 fundraiser for Judge Alison Conlon at the Union League Club
    * The GOP donor class despises the party's base, Ted Cruz says
    * Di Leo: Murder, Motive and Challenging an Approach
    * Illinois corporate tax breaks and Illinois workers lose their jobs.
    * Harlan Community Education Advisory Committee. #harlanfalcons
    * You’re Invited – Illinois REbarcamp Powered by YPN!
    * Anniversary hashtag voting ends at noon Tuesday
    * Illinois should hold nation's first presidential primary, D.C. pundit says

      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller