SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Thursday, Feb 6, 2014

* Lee Newspapers

Adam Pollet, director of the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity, said statistics show Illinois did not lose jobs in 2012, which has become a key argument among GOP lawmakers and Republican candidates for governor heading into the 2014 elections.

“We are a net importer of jobs,” Pollet told members of the House Revenue Committee. “We gained 1,400 jobs from business relocation in 2012. Since May 2013, we have led the Midwest in the number of jobs created. We are not losing jobs in Illinois.”

“This narrative that businesses are leaving the state is just not factually true,” Pollett said. […]

According to a report cited by Pollet, 283 businesses moved out of Illinois in 2012, while 275 businesses moved into the state. But, the new businesses had more jobs than the ones that moved elsewhere.

Look, I hate this goofy “death spiral” rhetoric more than just about anyone.

But, c’mon, man. Businesses are leaving the state. Pollet’s own numbers clearly show that. We may be a “net importer,” but we’re most certainly losing a lot of businesses.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:13 am:

    Plus, according to the sidebar it looks like we lost the Gathering of the Juggalos to Missouri. ;)


  2. - Illinois Policy Institute - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:14 am:

    Yeah, and now Pat Quinn is letting the Gathering of the Juggaloes just walk away. Governor Bruce Rauner will bring Insane Clown Posse back to Illinois.


  3. - Cincinnatus - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:19 am:

    Year Period labor force employment unemployment unemployment rate

    2012 Jan 6588318 5987830 600488 9.1

    2012 Dec 6617435 6045497 571938 8.6

    He is technically correct. What is not discussed is the number of discouraged workers who have left the workforce, and our relative performance with respect to our neighbors and the nation.


  4. - Frank - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    It would be nice if a more detailed analysis would be done as to exactly why businesses are leaving and why they are coming here…that would give the numbers some meaning.

    The same applies to population loss. (Or more accurately, slower population growth.) Illinois has been losing population to Florida and Arizona since the day air conditioning was invented. How much of this movement is new and how much of it is just part of a decades-long demographic trend?


  5. - Tim - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:28 am:

    Doesn’t the fact that there was a positive job gain diminish the business-leaving statistic?


  6. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:28 am:

    Not sure I get your point, Rich. Businesses (and people) have always moved out of the state. And into the state. You hope and work to make sure the former is less than the latter. Why wouldn’t you focus on the “net”?


  7. - Glenn - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:30 am:

    Corporations say to government: Cut my taxes or we leave.

    Corporations say to workers: Cut wages paid or we leave.

    So the rising share of taxes are paid out of declining wages; the people and their governments have no leverage in this race to the bottom.


  8. - No Peotone Airport - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:30 am:

    As long as Mr. Pollet has undertaken the dynamic analysis to show Illinois was a net job importer in 2012, perhaps he could also disclose the aggregate income of the jobs that moved out vs. the jobs that moved in, i.e., did this “net jobs gain” come with a corresponding gain in net income?


  9. - Judgment Day (Road Trip) - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:35 am:

    ““We gained 1,400 jobs from business relocation in 2012.”

    So, worst case is over 24 months, we’ve ‘gained’ 58.33 jobs (inflow; 1400/24 = 58.333) per month in the entire state. Best case is over 12 months, we’ve ‘gained’ 116.67 jobs (inflow; 1400/12 = 116.67) per month in the entire state.

    There’s a ‘winner’ of an argument. Don’t stand on that one for too long, you’ll probably die from the fall.

    Maybe Sam Zell could tell Pollet what Illinois is doing wrong….

    Cheap entertainment….


  10. - Bill - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:36 am:

    - Frank - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    It would be nice if a more detailed analysis would be done as to exactly why businesses are leaving and why they are coming here…that would give the numbers some meaning.

    I would think that KURT ERICKSON, Lee Springfield Bureau Chief, would have anticipated that as part of the narrative of this quoted article/story of his. Guess not.


  11. - Anyone Remember - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:43 am:

    Frank -
    ==Illinois has been losing population to Florida and Arizona since the day air conditioning was invented.==

    I agree. As an immigrant to Illinois, my observation is the biggest problem with the business climate is the climate. America is a nation of weather wimps.


  12. - check your math - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:46 am:

    This graph is instructive: http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LASST170000000000005_2003_2013_all_period_M12_data_employment.gif

    It’s the raw number of people with jobs over time.


  13. - PublicServant - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:46 am:

    There is no doubt that some companies are leaving the state, and some are coming into the state. It’s not the fact that some are leaving, its how close the spin being given as to why that’s happening is to the actual truth. I’m pretty sure republican spin and the truth have rarely met.


  14. - Juvenal - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Anonymous and Pollet are correct.

    I know a guy that just moved to Michigan.

    Does that mean Michigan is rebounding? No.

    People and businesses move. Alot.

    Net migration is what matters.

    That is not to say that we should ignore those immigration numbers.

    The economy grows by retaining businesses in Illinois and attracting businesses from out of state.

    But because relocation is such a rare event, the policy focus is misplaced.

    The policy focus should be on growing existing businesses and creating new ones.

    unfortunately, news media is focused on factory openings and closings, and policymakers chase those headlines.


  15. - plutocrat03 - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:56 am:

    As mentioned above, a net increase in the number of jobs is only part of the answer.

    The rest of the answer requires us to know if the net wages paid are greater or less than before. Any of that data available?


  16. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:57 am:

    This is Illinois.
    We have never before had to have this conversation. The fact that we are is a problem. The fact that many Illinoisans agree is another.

    It would be as if Floridians were believing that there were fewer tourists. Illinois is supposed to be where America works. Chicago was known as the “City that worked” - further playing on this famous positive attribute of ours.

    It shouldn’t be necessary to defend. But it has become necessary and that is not good.


  17. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:57 am:

    ===diminish the business-leaving statistic? ===

    Yes, it does. But they’re still leaving.


  18. - Jake From Elwood - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:00 pm:

    Wow, Bill and VanMan posting on the same thread. This must be Throwback Thursday all the way back to 2009!
    Welcome back fellas!
    JFE


  19. - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:44 pm:

    As has been emphasized here many, many times the overall reality is neither as grim as Republicans make it out to be nor as rosy as Democrats make it out to be.

    Selective measurements can say all kinds of things. For example, if we measure November-December 2013, we lost jobs. If we measure October-December 2013, we gained jobs. That is because the October-November job gains were larger than the November-December job losses.

    Are we recovering? Yes.
    Are we recovering more slowly than other states? Yes.

    Do we have some great strengths? Yes.
    Do we have some great weaknesses? Yes.

    Can we look at just the good stuff? Yes.
    Can we look at just the bad stuff? Yes.

    The broader picture and health of our state is more than just individual areas of progress or regression.


  20. - Mittuns - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:53 pm:

    What’s the solution? Surely it is not doling out more EDGE tax credits to the big business hostage takers.

    The ability of state government to stimulate real job growth is far overstated, unless you believe the race to the bottom policies engulfing the South are preferential.


  21. - Soccermom - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:01 pm:

    Sorry, but I’m with Adam on this one. If we are attracting more businesses than we’re losing, that’s a good thing.

    It’s a dynamic process. I mean, we lost the Office Max-Office Depot hq to Boca Raton. I think that has less to do with the policies of our state and more to do with where the new CEO wanted to live. (Hint — somewhere the mercury doesn’t spend a lot of time below the zero mark.)

    Businesses move, for lots of reasons. I think we should do a better job of attracting business, and I think we should do a MUCH better job of growing our own. But looking at only one side of the ledger, the jobs lost column, gives a skewed view.


  22. - wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:13 pm:

    As Lili Von Schtup would say, “they’re always coming and going and going and coming….”


  23. - The Colossus of Roads - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:16 pm:

    Simple math. 1+1 is always 2. It is how you calculate the 1’s that make numbers creative.


  24. - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    === Net migration is what matters. ===

    That is an important measure.

    According to the most recent Census numbers, “Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Vermont and Illinois posted the slowest population growth, all at or near a tenth of 1 percentage point.”
    http://articles.latimes.com/2013/dec/30/nation/la-na-census-data-20131231

    We gained 13,493 residents. Is that good? Yes.
    We grew by 0.11%. Is that good? No.

    It’s like a company or person with $12 million in the bank crowing about making $13,943 last year.

    Did they make money? Yes. More than many.

    Are they banking big buck$? No. More than likely, they are asking some hard questions about why their income growth is slowing down so much after many years of even stronger profits.

    We are moving forward.

    But we are also getting passed by the faster kids in the class.


  25. - Skeptical - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:27 pm:

    Agree with Juvenal. Business Retention & Expansion (BRE) efforts are substantially more important that “smokestack chasing” efforts. BRE yields measurable results cost-effectively. Smokestack chasing is high-visibility for soundbites but also costly, and frankly, not particularly effective in providing substantial increases in state employment. As various peer reviewed journals have argued for years, smokestack chasing turns out to be a zero-sum game. By the way, it seems to me at face value, no matter how you calculate the numbers such as divided by 12, etc. the bottom line here is that a net importer is not a net exporter. As anyone knows who appreciates the power of logic, one counterexample to a premise, say that “jobs are fleeing the state in great numbers”,is a defeater to the monstrosity of rhetoric foisted on an unsuspecting public by those with less than morally pristine agendas.


  26. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    If the only solution to this problem is stripping unions and forcing down wages, while giving wealthy corporations the breaks, then I am squarely against this. There are other solutions beside driving down corporate costs and wages. I support breaks for corporations, but it has to be balanced.

    Clearly we have a lopsided economy, with almost all of the gains going to the top. We have ample evidence that corporate tax breaks alone don’t make for a healthy economy.

    Here is a report showing that in Illinois, pensions are 77% of the cost of corporate tax breaks. Corporate tax breaks are more expensive, per this report.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/30/state-pension-obligations-can-be-crushing-but-corporate-welfare-costs-more/

    There is good news for labor in the state of Tennessee. The Chattanooga VW plant appears to be ready to unionize. The union supporters fought for this because in Germany, there are works councils that require union members. This could have big implications for futher unionization.

    Unions are entities like anything else, and if they don’t cooperate in the process and are too inflexible, they should get their share of the blame. In this story, howevery, the atmosphere is good because UAW made concessions to help GM and Chrysler recover.

    http://news.yahoo.com/us-auto-union-close-big-win-thanks-germany-034945292.html;_ylt=A0LEVzU47_NS_mkA5iFXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTB0OGFhMDdhBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1ZJUDMyN18x

    And finally, we have to grow industries and businesses here. That can be done with fracking and marijuana legalization.


  27. - Bigtwich - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 3:32 pm:

    Plus, according to the sidebar it looks like we lost the Gathering of the Juggalos to Missouri. ;)

    Will the last clown out of Illinois turn off the lights.


  28. - walker - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 3:37 pm:

    ====The narrative that businesses are leaving the state is just not factually true.====

    Companies are always moving. Some leave Illinois for other states, but more come to Illinois from other states. Pollett relayed the simple picture.

    What’s to argue about?

    The narrative that we are in the toilet, with businesses flowing out in a rush, is just political nonsense.


  29. - Chi - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 3:46 pm:

    Would also like analysis on the wages paid on the jobs that are coming and the jobs that are going. If a fast food restaurant with 12 employees moves out but a computer engineering firm with 12 engineers working for it move in, than there is a net economic gain that wouldn’t be counted in the study.


  30. - Bill - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    “- Jake From Elwood - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:00 pm:

    Wow, Bill and VanMan posting on the same thread. This must be Throwback Thursday all the way back to 2009!
    Welcome back fellas!
    JFE”

    Jake,
    What are you alluding to?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* *** UPDATED x1 *** Question of the day
* Adventures in governing
* Rauner on Obama: "One of the most anti-business presidents we've had in the last 70 years"
* Callis recycles ad, reportedly lowers buys
* *** UPDATED x2 - Frerichs responds - Cross responds *** Frerichs says Cross is Rauner's "lapdog"
* Poll: Rauner leading by 6, Topinka up by 22, Cross up by 10
* Pumping up the base
* NRI head will testify next week
* *** UPDATED x2 *** Another day, another GTCR revelation
* Rate Rauner's three new TV ads
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Congressional crosstabs
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning, everybody!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * A New App Called Offtime Helps You Unplug Without Missing Out
        * iPhone 6 Plus review – Apple’s outstanding entry to the “phablet” market
        * LEGO Creator Islands lets you build all things awesome
        * Chargerito smartphone charger is incredibly small
        * Skylanders Trap Team Review: Good Storytelling And Simple RPG Mechanics Succeed
        * Parrot Zik 2.0: lighter, better battery controls
        * Samsung shares Galaxy Note 4 release dates for nations around the globe

        * ARM Introduces New Platform for The Internet of Things
        * Why Windows 10 is an Ambitious Step Forward, Not a Retreat
        * Netflix Will Pay You to Instagram Famous Movie Locations
        * New Swarming Drones Appear Just in Time for Looser Rules on Eyes in the Skies
        * LGBT Real-Name Controversy: Facebook Apologies, Promises Changes
        * Facebook Apologizes to Drag Queens Over “Real Name” Policy
        * Wealthfront Hires MessageMe COO Ali Rosenthal to Run Partnerships

        * Guide to American League rooting interests for White Sox fans
        * Anderson, Edwards prospects to watch in AFL
        * Manager notes: How Robin Ventura and Chris Sale get along
        * Voting underway to decide Hank Aaron Awards
        * Development of young core in '15 can define Chicago's future
        * Improved White Sox take important step in 2014
        * September call-ups report card: position players


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Gov. Quinn Proclaims “First Ladies Health Day” .....
        * McAuliffe to campaign for Gov. Pat Quinn in Chi.....
        * Sitting Governors Fight to Keep Their Jobs..
        * Rauner, Quinn clash on Obamacare expansion ahea.....
        * Panel Investigating NRI To Hold Hearings Next Week..
        * Skokie man takes charge of Chicago’s first Oliv.....
        * Reeder: State government unaware of education s.....
        * Rauner calls for restructuring of the tax code..


        * Donations drying up for Lincoln library foundation
        * Ex-Chicago police commander getting out of prison
        * Governor candidates' views on Obama library evolve
        * Community prosecutor to serve East St. Louis area
        * U of Chicago increases aid to needy students
        * Officer accused of taking drug from evidence room
        * Federal agents charge 22 in alleged drug ring
        * Md. bankruptcy halts suit in deadly Illinois crash
        * Illinois universities competing for students
        * Ex-Texas deputy gets 12 years in drug cash case

        * Donations drying up for Lincoln Presidential Library foundation, chairman tells lawmakers
        * ALPLM at center of legislative hearing in Chicago
        * Former head of anti-violence program to testify
        * Appellate court: State workers owed back wages
        * Quinn leans on top Democratic support — Obamas, Clinton
        * IDOC investigation prompts state prison warden to retire
        * Lawmaker panel plans to resume anti-violence program investigation
        * Quinn touts first year of Affordable Care Act
        * State-owned airplanes to be sold in online auction
        * GOP opposition to school funding bill irks Manar

        * Secret Service Director Julia Pierson resigns
        * United stock dips on news of first U.S. Ebola case
        * Chicago-Indianapolis train getting snacks, surfing and biz class
        * Young drinkers have abandoned big beer. Can it be saved?
        * New networking group launches


        * Video shows Rauner opposing Medicaid expansion last year
        * Rauner’s biggest strength proving to be greatest weakness: Mihalopoulos
        * CPS students with good GPA could get free ride to City Colleges
        * Union: CPS was warned that janitor job cuts could cause problems
        * Lawyer: Key witness to answer questions from panel probing NRI
        * Emanuel super PAC rakes in $2.4 million since late June
        * Pedicab operators say city rules putting brakes on their business
        * IHSA to boycott legislative hearing set for Friday in Chicago
        * Quinn urges City Council to tighten reins on small digital signs
        * Man charged with killing girlfriend, 7-year-old daughter


        * Worker with gun arrested at Elgin water treatment plant: 'He had a bad day'
        * Minor injuries in pepper spray incident at West Side school
        * Emanuel won't rule out fee hikes in 2015 budget
        * Registered sex offender charged with attacking woman at Brown Line stop
        * CPS grads can qualify for new city college scholarships
        * Rauner, Quinn clash on Obamacare expansion ahead of president's Chicago visit
        * Cops: Man with symptoms of dementia missing from Humboldt Park
        * Jury begins deliberating in Naperville 'smart meter' case
        * Former cop convicted of perjury gets 4-1/2 months in jail
        * Nearly two dozen charged in multimillion-dollar drug operations in Chicago area


        * Tim Landis: Bike Lanes, Medical Marijuana And Meat
        * Clock Ticking On Illinois Prison Crowding
        * Decatur Unemployment Shows Biggest Drop In Nation
        * Quinn Lauds Affordable Care Act, Backs Down From State Marketplace
        * A Redo On Redistricting
        * Polls Showing Illinois Governor's Race A Draw
        * Bruce Rauner, Before He Was A Candidate (Author Interview)
        * Listen to State Week - September 19, 2014
        * Clearing The Air On Clean Air Plan
        * Meet Bishop Blase Cupich, Chicago's incoming archbishop


        * Donations drying up for Lincoln Presidential Library foundation, chairman tells lawmakers
        * Former head of anti-violence program to testify
        * Michael Gerson: Two cheers for Obama, not three
        * Appellate court: State workers owed back wages
        * Quinn leans on top Democratic support — Obamas, Clinton
        * IDOC investigation prompts state prison warden to retire
        * Panel plans to resume anti-violence program probe
        * Lawmaker panel plans to resume anti-violence program investigation
        * Quinn touts first year of Affordable Care Act
        * State-owned airplanes to be sold in online auction


        * Boil order lifted for part of Murphysboro
        * Madison County man, suspect lucky to be alive after wild battle over guns
        * Street closures listing
        * Madison County resident, suspect lucky to be alive after wild battle over two guns
        * Missouri police officer from Belleville charged with drug possession, stealing
        * Columbia American Legion receives missing money
        * Today's chat recap: R-E-L-A-X
        * Fort de Chartres offers look at World War II with ‘Salute to Our Heroes’
        * Launa McClaine
        * RI police called to Thurgood Marshall Learning Center


        * Crisis backpack taken from Hoffman Estates elementary school
        * Golf Road lanes reopened in Hoffman Estates
        * Man in custody after gun reported at water district building in Elgin
        * Prison set for Highland Park woman in 'huffing' death
        * WINGS, YWCA neck and neck in Purple Purse Challenge

        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement in...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...

        * Northeastern Illinois University celebrate......
        * Illinois gets $19 million for justice prog......
        * Illinois gets $19 million for justice prog......
        * Illinois gets $19 million for justice prog......
        * Illinois gets $19 million for justice prog......

        * On The Campaign Trail, GOP Gov. Snyder Hig......

        * Obama Headed To Chicago To Fundraise For Quinn
        * Emanuel To City Sister Agencies: Require A $13 Minimum Wage
        * Public Interest Group Urges Against 'Wasteful Spending' On Illiana Expressway
        * Emanuel Considering Free City Colleges Tuition For CPS Grads With High GPA
        * Chicago Police: 2014 Murders Hit Lowest Level Since 1965
        * Panel Investigating NRI To Hold Hearings Next Week
        * Get Ready! Wilson L Renovations Start This Month
        * Effective Property Tax Rates in the Collar Counties
        * Conservative orgs say "no" to candidates who say "no" to Republican principles
        * New Poll: Rauner leads by 6, Cross by 10, Topinka by 22


        * Screwed Up
        * Jobs Governor
        * Wake Up
        * Rauner Launches Three New TV Ads
        * Quinn must take lame duck tax vote off the table




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller