SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Thursday, Feb 6, 2014

* Lee Newspapers

Adam Pollet, director of the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity, said statistics show Illinois did not lose jobs in 2012, which has become a key argument among GOP lawmakers and Republican candidates for governor heading into the 2014 elections.

“We are a net importer of jobs,” Pollet told members of the House Revenue Committee. “We gained 1,400 jobs from business relocation in 2012. Since May 2013, we have led the Midwest in the number of jobs created. We are not losing jobs in Illinois.”

“This narrative that businesses are leaving the state is just not factually true,” Pollett said. […]

According to a report cited by Pollet, 283 businesses moved out of Illinois in 2012, while 275 businesses moved into the state. But, the new businesses had more jobs than the ones that moved elsewhere.

Look, I hate this goofy “death spiral” rhetoric more than just about anyone.

But, c’mon, man. Businesses are leaving the state. Pollet’s own numbers clearly show that. We may be a “net importer,” but we’re most certainly losing a lot of businesses.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:13 am:

    Plus, according to the sidebar it looks like we lost the Gathering of the Juggalos to Missouri. ;)


  2. - Illinois Policy Institute - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:14 am:

    Yeah, and now Pat Quinn is letting the Gathering of the Juggaloes just walk away. Governor Bruce Rauner will bring Insane Clown Posse back to Illinois.


  3. - Cincinnatus - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:19 am:

    Year Period labor force employment unemployment unemployment rate

    2012 Jan 6588318 5987830 600488 9.1

    2012 Dec 6617435 6045497 571938 8.6

    He is technically correct. What is not discussed is the number of discouraged workers who have left the workforce, and our relative performance with respect to our neighbors and the nation.


  4. - Frank - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    It would be nice if a more detailed analysis would be done as to exactly why businesses are leaving and why they are coming here…that would give the numbers some meaning.

    The same applies to population loss. (Or more accurately, slower population growth.) Illinois has been losing population to Florida and Arizona since the day air conditioning was invented. How much of this movement is new and how much of it is just part of a decades-long demographic trend?


  5. - Tim - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:28 am:

    Doesn’t the fact that there was a positive job gain diminish the business-leaving statistic?


  6. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:28 am:

    Not sure I get your point, Rich. Businesses (and people) have always moved out of the state. And into the state. You hope and work to make sure the former is less than the latter. Why wouldn’t you focus on the “net”?


  7. - Glenn - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:30 am:

    Corporations say to government: Cut my taxes or we leave.

    Corporations say to workers: Cut wages paid or we leave.

    So the rising share of taxes are paid out of declining wages; the people and their governments have no leverage in this race to the bottom.


  8. - No Peotone Airport - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:30 am:

    As long as Mr. Pollet has undertaken the dynamic analysis to show Illinois was a net job importer in 2012, perhaps he could also disclose the aggregate income of the jobs that moved out vs. the jobs that moved in, i.e., did this “net jobs gain” come with a corresponding gain in net income?


  9. - Judgment Day (Road Trip) - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:35 am:

    ““We gained 1,400 jobs from business relocation in 2012.”

    So, worst case is over 24 months, we’ve ‘gained’ 58.33 jobs (inflow; 1400/24 = 58.333) per month in the entire state. Best case is over 12 months, we’ve ‘gained’ 116.67 jobs (inflow; 1400/12 = 116.67) per month in the entire state.

    There’s a ‘winner’ of an argument. Don’t stand on that one for too long, you’ll probably die from the fall.

    Maybe Sam Zell could tell Pollet what Illinois is doing wrong….

    Cheap entertainment….


  10. - Bill - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:36 am:

    - Frank - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    It would be nice if a more detailed analysis would be done as to exactly why businesses are leaving and why they are coming here…that would give the numbers some meaning.

    I would think that KURT ERICKSON, Lee Springfield Bureau Chief, would have anticipated that as part of the narrative of this quoted article/story of his. Guess not.


  11. - Anyone Remember - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:43 am:

    Frank -
    ==Illinois has been losing population to Florida and Arizona since the day air conditioning was invented.==

    I agree. As an immigrant to Illinois, my observation is the biggest problem with the business climate is the climate. America is a nation of weather wimps.


  12. - check your math - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:46 am:

    This graph is instructive: http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LASST170000000000005_2003_2013_all_period_M12_data_employment.gif

    It’s the raw number of people with jobs over time.


  13. - PublicServant - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:46 am:

    There is no doubt that some companies are leaving the state, and some are coming into the state. It’s not the fact that some are leaving, its how close the spin being given as to why that’s happening is to the actual truth. I’m pretty sure republican spin and the truth have rarely met.


  14. - Juvenal - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Anonymous and Pollet are correct.

    I know a guy that just moved to Michigan.

    Does that mean Michigan is rebounding? No.

    People and businesses move. Alot.

    Net migration is what matters.

    That is not to say that we should ignore those immigration numbers.

    The economy grows by retaining businesses in Illinois and attracting businesses from out of state.

    But because relocation is such a rare event, the policy focus is misplaced.

    The policy focus should be on growing existing businesses and creating new ones.

    unfortunately, news media is focused on factory openings and closings, and policymakers chase those headlines.


  15. - plutocrat03 - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:56 am:

    As mentioned above, a net increase in the number of jobs is only part of the answer.

    The rest of the answer requires us to know if the net wages paid are greater or less than before. Any of that data available?


  16. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:57 am:

    This is Illinois.
    We have never before had to have this conversation. The fact that we are is a problem. The fact that many Illinoisans agree is another.

    It would be as if Floridians were believing that there were fewer tourists. Illinois is supposed to be where America works. Chicago was known as the “City that worked” - further playing on this famous positive attribute of ours.

    It shouldn’t be necessary to defend. But it has become necessary and that is not good.


  17. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:57 am:

    ===diminish the business-leaving statistic? ===

    Yes, it does. But they’re still leaving.


  18. - Jake From Elwood - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:00 pm:

    Wow, Bill and VanMan posting on the same thread. This must be Throwback Thursday all the way back to 2009!
    Welcome back fellas!
    JFE


  19. - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:44 pm:

    As has been emphasized here many, many times the overall reality is neither as grim as Republicans make it out to be nor as rosy as Democrats make it out to be.

    Selective measurements can say all kinds of things. For example, if we measure November-December 2013, we lost jobs. If we measure October-December 2013, we gained jobs. That is because the October-November job gains were larger than the November-December job losses.

    Are we recovering? Yes.
    Are we recovering more slowly than other states? Yes.

    Do we have some great strengths? Yes.
    Do we have some great weaknesses? Yes.

    Can we look at just the good stuff? Yes.
    Can we look at just the bad stuff? Yes.

    The broader picture and health of our state is more than just individual areas of progress or regression.


  20. - Mittuns - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:53 pm:

    What’s the solution? Surely it is not doling out more EDGE tax credits to the big business hostage takers.

    The ability of state government to stimulate real job growth is far overstated, unless you believe the race to the bottom policies engulfing the South are preferential.


  21. - Soccermom - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:01 pm:

    Sorry, but I’m with Adam on this one. If we are attracting more businesses than we’re losing, that’s a good thing.

    It’s a dynamic process. I mean, we lost the Office Max-Office Depot hq to Boca Raton. I think that has less to do with the policies of our state and more to do with where the new CEO wanted to live. (Hint — somewhere the mercury doesn’t spend a lot of time below the zero mark.)

    Businesses move, for lots of reasons. I think we should do a better job of attracting business, and I think we should do a MUCH better job of growing our own. But looking at only one side of the ledger, the jobs lost column, gives a skewed view.


  22. - wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:13 pm:

    As Lili Von Schtup would say, “they’re always coming and going and going and coming….”


  23. - The Colossus of Roads - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:16 pm:

    Simple math. 1+1 is always 2. It is how you calculate the 1’s that make numbers creative.


  24. - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    === Net migration is what matters. ===

    That is an important measure.

    According to the most recent Census numbers, “Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Vermont and Illinois posted the slowest population growth, all at or near a tenth of 1 percentage point.”
    http://articles.latimes.com/2013/dec/30/nation/la-na-census-data-20131231

    We gained 13,493 residents. Is that good? Yes.
    We grew by 0.11%. Is that good? No.

    It’s like a company or person with $12 million in the bank crowing about making $13,943 last year.

    Did they make money? Yes. More than many.

    Are they banking big buck$? No. More than likely, they are asking some hard questions about why their income growth is slowing down so much after many years of even stronger profits.

    We are moving forward.

    But we are also getting passed by the faster kids in the class.


  25. - Skeptical - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:27 pm:

    Agree with Juvenal. Business Retention & Expansion (BRE) efforts are substantially more important that “smokestack chasing” efforts. BRE yields measurable results cost-effectively. Smokestack chasing is high-visibility for soundbites but also costly, and frankly, not particularly effective in providing substantial increases in state employment. As various peer reviewed journals have argued for years, smokestack chasing turns out to be a zero-sum game. By the way, it seems to me at face value, no matter how you calculate the numbers such as divided by 12, etc. the bottom line here is that a net importer is not a net exporter. As anyone knows who appreciates the power of logic, one counterexample to a premise, say that “jobs are fleeing the state in great numbers”,is a defeater to the monstrosity of rhetoric foisted on an unsuspecting public by those with less than morally pristine agendas.


  26. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    If the only solution to this problem is stripping unions and forcing down wages, while giving wealthy corporations the breaks, then I am squarely against this. There are other solutions beside driving down corporate costs and wages. I support breaks for corporations, but it has to be balanced.

    Clearly we have a lopsided economy, with almost all of the gains going to the top. We have ample evidence that corporate tax breaks alone don’t make for a healthy economy.

    Here is a report showing that in Illinois, pensions are 77% of the cost of corporate tax breaks. Corporate tax breaks are more expensive, per this report.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/30/state-pension-obligations-can-be-crushing-but-corporate-welfare-costs-more/

    There is good news for labor in the state of Tennessee. The Chattanooga VW plant appears to be ready to unionize. The union supporters fought for this because in Germany, there are works councils that require union members. This could have big implications for futher unionization.

    Unions are entities like anything else, and if they don’t cooperate in the process and are too inflexible, they should get their share of the blame. In this story, howevery, the atmosphere is good because UAW made concessions to help GM and Chrysler recover.

    http://news.yahoo.com/us-auto-union-close-big-win-thanks-germany-034945292.html;_ylt=A0LEVzU47_NS_mkA5iFXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTB0OGFhMDdhBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1ZJUDMyN18x

    And finally, we have to grow industries and businesses here. That can be done with fracking and marijuana legalization.


  27. - Bigtwich - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 3:32 pm:

    Plus, according to the sidebar it looks like we lost the Gathering of the Juggalos to Missouri. ;)

    Will the last clown out of Illinois turn off the lights.


  28. - walker - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 3:37 pm:

    ====The narrative that businesses are leaving the state is just not factually true.====

    Companies are always moving. Some leave Illinois for other states, but more come to Illinois from other states. Pollett relayed the simple picture.

    What’s to argue about?

    The narrative that we are in the toilet, with businesses flowing out in a rush, is just political nonsense.


  29. - Chi - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 3:46 pm:

    Would also like analysis on the wages paid on the jobs that are coming and the jobs that are going. If a fast food restaurant with 12 employees moves out but a computer engineering firm with 12 engineers working for it move in, than there is a net economic gain that wouldn’t be counted in the study.


  30. - Bill - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    “- Jake From Elwood - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:00 pm:

    Wow, Bill and VanMan posting on the same thread. This must be Throwback Thursday all the way back to 2009!
    Welcome back fellas!
    JFE”

    Jake,
    What are you alluding to?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Rauner claims he's spending "all my time" on reforms, not campaigns
* Daley whines about Emanuel, but poll results indicate he's wrong
* Reporters focus on stroke angle, Dems hit race angle
* Maybe a phone call might help?
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Legislator wants to stop Pokémon Go from leading players to protected sites
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - New cable TV buys
* Another big budget hit coming?
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Galaxy Note 7 ships in Germany a week ahead of schedule
* Pokémon Go is boosting competitor in-app purchase revenue, too
* Galaxy Note 7 explodes, and we’re not talking about demand
* [TA Deals] Bring home an ASUS Chromebook C300MA for just $149!
* Microsoft’s Word Flow keyboard takes on Google with integrated GIF and Bing search
* HTC Desire 10 Lifestyle rumored with low-end Snapdragon 400 SoC, sub-$200 price
* LG V20 getting B&O Play audio enhancements

* White Sox roll past Phillies with Rodon at wheel
* Rodon unlocks backdoor in commanding win
* Rodon rolls on as White Sox pound Phillies
* White Sox roll past Phillies with Rodon at wheel
* Collins among top prospect performers Tuesday
* Rodon rolls on as White Sox pound Phillies
* Pipeline preview: Adams featured in duel of the day

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Rauner's office warns pension change could be '.....
* Rauner vetoes bill that would limit state from .....
* Rep. Brady: State needs to get schools caught u.....
* Rauner signs occupational licensing reform into.....
* Rauner signs bills aimed to improve quality of .....
* Rauner signs bill to punish trafficking guns in.....


* Prosecutors wants McCullough case perjury claim investigated
* East St. Louis closes jail after sanitation complaint
* Islamic scholar has deadline to accept sex abuse plea deal
* Summit focuses on coordinating efforts to fight drug abuse
* Possible suspect questioned in Chicago fire that killed 4
* 28 students to get police escort due to oil pipeline protest
* Illinois graduating seniors have slight ACT score increase
* Environmentalists win lawsuit against Peoria-area coal plant
* Chicago Board of Education to vote on $5.4 billion budget
* EXCHANGE: Murphysboro Kiwanis uses bocce to bridge gaps

* Rauner signs bill to punish trafficking guns into Illinois
* Rauner to sign bill to clamp down on gun trafficking
* Gov. Rauner signs bills to assist juvenile, other offenders
* Gov. Rauner signs package of criminal justice legislation
* Tax on feminine hygiene products repealed in Illinois
* Gay rights setback seen in Illinois Supreme Court ruling
* New Illinois law addresses financial exploitation of elderly
* Democrats at Illinois State Fair taunt GOP's Trump reluctance
* Democrats taunt GOP's Trump reluctance
* Illinois Democrats trumpet Trump name, taunt GOP reluctance

* Uber fights to keep drivers freelance, but offers a retirement option
* Clinton win could pressure GOP to heal, not repeal, Obamacare
* Environmentalists win lawsuit against Peoria-area coal plant
* Dancing Festival, Taste of Greektown, art in Highland Park
* Hospitals and health insurers suffer in Illinois


* Man shot in Washington Park
* Man shot to death in Englewood
* Italy earthquake kills at least 73, reduces towns to rubble
* 1 dead, 4 wounded in shootings early Wednesday
* Robert Reich: Why universal health care is inevitable in America
* Ford recalls over 88K vehicles due to stalling problem
* Attack underway at American University in Afghan capital
* Swimmer Feigen apologizes for ‘serious distraction’ in Rio
* Podcast: 3 Bears veterans who could be surprise cuts
* Transgender performer files discrimination lawsuit vs. city


* Who was the greatest Cubs catcher?
* Italy earthquake kills 120, injures hundreds: 'There's nothing left'
* Scavenged Oprah bricks a 'hot commodity' in West Loop
* Explosions, automatic gunfire heard in attack on American University in Kabul
* Bears Q&A: Brian Hoyer vs. Connor Shaw, injuries on defense and more
* Astronaut breaks U.S. record: 521 days in space and counting
* Charges filed against boy, 15, shot by troopers during pursuit
* Jogger fatally struck by vehicle on Far Northwest Side
* Cops: Apartment building manager finds drug lab during eviction
* July home sales plunge in Chicago, suburbs


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Michael Gerson: Cheap populism helps no one
* E.J. Dionne: Trump's sour Virginia cocktail
* Michael LeRoy: Map case shows courts' flaws
* Our View: Both parties need plans for Illinois, not rhetoric
* Catherine Rampell: Millennials aren’t buying homes. Good for them.
* Rauner signs bill to punish trafficking guns into Illinois
* Rauner to sign bill to clamp down on gun trafficking
* Gov. Rauner signs bills to assist juvenile, other offenders
* Kathleen Parker: A nice column about Trump
* Gov. Rauner signs package of criminal justice legislation


* Three acts to see at River Roots Live: Luke Bell, The Stone Foxes and Guitar Army
* Lincoln Library expands with Masters papers
* Mother and daughter are masterminds behind Mossville's Hayloft Shops
* 08-24-16 Penny for Your Thoughts
* Boil order issued in Harrisburg
* Street closures listing
* 08-24-16 Jim Turpin with Josh George @jsgeorge Paralympic Wheelchair Racer
* Restaurant's final day Aug. 31
* Three game times set for Illini basketball
* Urbana finally to vote on pot question


* District 94 construction nearly complete
* Churilla joins Ravisloe Country Club, La Banque and La Voute
* Images: Earthquake devastation in Italy
* Long-awaited Comet ice cream opens in Rolling Meadows
* CTU Big Bargaining Team urges teachers to walk if no deal by October

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth visiting C......

* U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk touts Illinois ahead o......
* US Sen. Mark Kirk touts Illinois ahead of ......
* Duckworth: Kirk 'unhinged,' hearings on Ir......

* Hillary on the Clinton Foundation: The ends justify the means
* Chicagoans want higher taxes, poll reports
* How Elites Destroy Themselves
* Staver: Pastors, don't hide behind the IRS
* Illinois property taxes leave few options for financially-sound future
* Kirk wins gun control activist Gabby Gifford's support for re-election
* Juvenile-Justice Reformers: Lawyers For More IL Children A 'Good Start'
* Kirk Raises Eyebrows After Calling Obama 'Drug Dealer In Chief', Gets Gun Control Endorsement
* Schakowsky challenger gains Speaker Paul Ryan's endorsement
* Manafort out of the Trump campaign


* Governor Rauner Signs Firearms Trafficking Bill to Help Protect Communities from Gun Violence
* Governor Rauner Takes Action towards Normalcy for Illinois Youth in Care
* State Announces September 1 Start of Low Income Energy Assistance Program Enrollment - LIHEAP, PIPP applications available for seniors, people with disabilities beginning September 1
* Governor Rauner Signs Bills to Further Reforms to Illinois’ Criminal Justice System
* Governor Signs Bill Creating Task Force to Combat Human Trafficking




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller