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*** UPDATED x1 *** New TV ad attacks Rauner, ties him to Stu Levine

Tuesday, Feb 11, 2014

* Labor unions funding a new campaign committee, Illinois Freedom PAC, have unveiled their first TV ad. Subscribers know more about the buy’s cost and reach and flight length, but this is basically a statewide buy and backed by big bucks. Rate it

* Script…

Bruce Rauner says he’d shake up Springfield.

Hmm.

News reports tie Rauner to Stu Levine. Remember him? He’s the Blagojevich crony now in prison.

Levin testified that a company financed by Rauner’s firm gave him $1 million to get state contracts by “whatever means,” including payoffs.

At the same time, Levine voted to help Rauner’s firm get $50 million in state pension funds.

Trust Bruce Rauner to shake up Springfield? He’s tied to people who shook it down.

* The new committee describes itself on its website thusly

Illinois Freedom is dedicated to educating Illinois families about the important issues at stake in this election.

* The accompanying press release…

Illinois Freedom PAC launched a new television ad today holding gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner accountable for his insider ties to Stuart Levine, a Blagojevich crony now in prison. The ad and the facts can be viewed at www.IllinoisFreedom.com.

“Bruce Rauner says he is an outsider who can shake up Springfield, but nothing could be further from the truth,” says Michael Murray, spokesman for Illinois Freedom. “A company co-owned by Rauner’s firm paid Blagojevich crony Stuart Levine $25,000 a month at the same time that Levine, who sat on the Illinois Teacher Retirement System board, voted to give Rauner’s firm tens of millions of dollars in state pension funds. Bruce Rauner isn’t who he says he is. As a businessman he made a fortune using his Springfield ties; just think what he’d do as governor.”

Representing hundreds of thousands of working families in Illinois, Illinois Freedom is dedicated to educating Illinois voters about the important issues at stake in this election. The ad is supported by an initial weeklong buy worth more than $1 million in the Chicago, Champaign, Peoria, and Rockford media markets as well as online.

Check the facts:

    • In 1981, Bruce Rauner helped found the private equity firm GTCR. Rauner worked at GTCR for more than 30 years before retiring as the firm’s chairman in 2012 as he prepared to run for governor. [Chicago Tribune, 10.19.12[articles.chicagotribune.com]]

    • Rauner’s firm GTCR had an ownership stake in a company called CompBenefits Corp., that retained Stuart Levine who has been called a “notorious political fixer, federal felon and corrupt Springfield insider who helped bring down Rod Blagojevich.” [Crain’s, 3.11.13[chicagobusiness.com]]

    • According to Levine, the company paid him $25,000 per month to get city and state contracts by whatever means necessary, including payoffs. Levine even admitted to paying a bribe to get a $15 million city contract for the company. [Crain’s, 3.11.13[chicagobusiness.com] & Sun-Times, 8.25.05[blogs.suntimes.com]]

    • At the same time Levine was being paid by the company that Rauner’s firm partially owned, he voted to award Rauner’s firm $50 million from the state teachers pension fund. [Sun-Times, 1.14.14][parkridge.suntimes.com]

    • In January 2014, Greg Hinz, a columnist for Crain’s wrote, “I’d like to report that Mr. Rauner and his campaign have forthrightly answered the questions [about his relationship with Stuart Levine]. But I still can’t… How can Mr. Rauner be trusted to clean up corrupt Springfield when he won’t fully explain how and why Mr. Levine made $25,000 a month trying to get government business for a company owned in part by Mr. Rauner?” [Crain’s. 1.15.14[chicagobusiness.com]]

I’ll post the Rauner campaign’s response as soon as I get it. Check back soon.

…Adding… Here’s the Rauner campaign’s response…

Fact Check: New Attack Ad Gets It Wrong

- - Chicago Tribune Analysis Finds No Real Link Between Rauner, Levine - -

Supporters of Pat Quinn launched advertisements today in attempt to hijack the Republican primary and defeat Bruce Rauner. The ads are based on a de-bunked theory that tries to connect Bruce to Stuart Levine.

“This ad is irresponsible and shortchanges the truth in a desperate attempt to smear Bruce Rauner,” said Chip Englander, campaign manager for Bruce Rauner. “Pat Quinn’s special interest allies will say anything to try to stop Bruce, even peddling allegations that have been debunked by the media and they know aren’t true.”

Fact Sheet:

    “[A] closer look at the available details suggests any such connection is tenuous at best.” – Chicago Tribune, 1/31/14
    “[R]ecords cast doubt on any strong link between GOP candidate, convicted power broker.” – Chicago Tribune, 1/31/14
    Bruce Rauner never hired Stuart Levine
    Records show Rauner’s firm, GTCR Golder Rauner, took its ownership stake in CompDent in 1999 — three years after CompDent’s arrangement with Levine was inked.” - Chicago Tribune, 1/31/14

2003 Vote to Invest in GTCR was Unanimous

    “Roll call resulted in affirmative voice votes from Trustees Bruner, Cleveland, Glennon, Klickna, Leggett, Levine, O’Neill, Phalen, Schmidt, and Schiller. Motion CARRIED.” (Illinois Teacher Retirement System, “Board of Trustee Minutes,”http://trs.illinois.gov/subsections/trustees/2003minutes/5_23_03.pdf, 5/23/03)

TRS Investments in GTCR Have Performed Exceptionally Well

    Average rate of return by GTCR funds invested in by TRS is 25%.

    o Fund VII: 26%
    o Fund VIII: 24%
    (Lynne Marek, www.chicagobusiness.com, 4/8/13)

Attack Fueled by Pat Quinn’s Special Interest Allies With Links to Levine

2003 TRS Motion to Invest Was Made by Cinda Klickna, President of the Illinois Education Association (IEA)

    “On a motion by Cinda Klickna, seconded by Sharon Leggett, it was resolved: To allocate $50 million in GTCR Fund VIII, L.P., subject to satisfactory completion of contract and fee negotiations. Source of funds shall be the TRS Cash Flow account. - Illinois Teacher Retirement System, “Board of Trustee Minutes,” http://trs.illinois.gov/subsections/trustees/2003minutes/5_23_03.pdf, 5/23/03

IEA Directly Linked to “Illinois Freedom PAC”

    Jean Luft is listed as chairman and treasurer of the “Illinois Freedom PAC.” – Illinois State Board of Elections, Accessed 2/10/14

    Jean Luft is also President of the District 65 Educators’ Council, an affiliate of the Illinois Education Association. – District 65 Educators’ Council Website, Accessed 2/10/14

*** UPDATE *** The response to Rauner’s response…

Like I said before, you can’t trust Bruce Rauner. Levine said he was paid to secure contracts by whatever means necessary and Rauner wants us to believe that Levine changing his vote to give Rauner’s company $50 mil was just a coincidence?

Mr. Rauner just can’t be trusted. He says he’s an outsider but he’s tied to corrupt insiders like Levine. He gushed about how involved he was with ALL his companies but now pretends he knew nothing about one of the highest paid employees of one of those companies. He can’t have it both ways — that’s an insult to the intelligence of Illinois voters.

    JUNE 17, 1999: GTCR And TA Funds Completed Its LBO Of CompDent. “CompDent Corporation (Nasdaq: CPDN), a leader in providing total dental benefits, announced today that it has completed its merger with the newly formed company, TAGTCR Acquisition, Inc., which was organized at the direction of Golder, Thoma, Cressey, Rauner, Inc. (”GTCR”) and TA Associates, Inc. (”TA”). Under the terms of the merger, CompDent was recapitalized and each outstanding share of CompDent’s common stock, other than certain shares held by management and other investors, was converted into the right to receive $15.00 in cash, and the existing funded indebtedness of CompDent was refinanced. The merger became effective June 17, 1999.” [CompDent Press Release, 6/18/99]

    · AUGUST 9, 1999: Rauner: “We Spend A Lot Of Time Living With Our Companies On A Week-To-Week Basis, Understanding What’s Going On, And Being In The Flow Of Information, So We Can Be Helpful And Knowledgeable About The Operation.” Rauner said in an interview with The Wall Street Transcript, “We spend a lot of time living with our companies on a week-to-week basis, understanding what’s going on, and being in the flow of information, so we can be helpful and knowledgeable about the operation.” [Rauner Interview, The Wall Street Transcript, 8/9/99]

- Posted by Rich Miller        


99 Comments
  1. - PoolGuy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:12 am:

    oh boy looks like somebody gonna write another $1 million dollar check in 3…2…1…


  2. - CYR - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:15 am:

    Pretty good.


  3. - chad - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:15 am:

    The ad is effective. Takes a potentially complicated transaction and makes it simple for the viewer.


  4. - truthteller - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:15 am:

    Blago and Ryan were nickel and dime corrupt.
    Rauner, with his $50 million plus hedge fund income in 2012, is going to show us what real corruption looks like.


  5. - PoolGuy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:15 am:

    they are trying to hijack a primary while you are trying to hijack an entire state party. you say potato, I say po-tot-o


  6. - Samurai - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:16 am:

    Clever and would shift the tide. But it seems we now have a tsunami.


  7. - hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:19 am:

    At least this PAC included an Illinois-based officer who actually has a stake in this election.

    Did Mid-America Fund ever report as required to ISBE? I’m pretty sure its been 10 days hasn’t it?


  8. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:21 am:

    Ouch. That’s going to leave a mark.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:22 am:

    “Hijacking a Primary” - that’s r.ich…

    Sorry, “Bruce Rauner” is rich

    The cost of trying to make others think you have honesty and integrity is never fully payable. You have to keep spending money so others don’t learn what you lack in character.

    I will see in a week or so if the Ad is effective, but it’s a solid “B, B+”


  10. - Goonhammer - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    I wonder how much damage the GOP canadidates can do to each other in teh next five weeks and how that damage will tear open sinking their ship in November…or are Quinn’s numbers so poor it doesn’t matter?


  11. - langhorne - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    good ad. i hope there are more like it to follow. vacationing w rahm, for example. contributions to dems.

    todays trib poll has rauner ahead of brady by about 40% to 20%, but the polling was last wed thru sat. thats before the anti rauner tabloid went out. fair amt of detail showing rauner winning in all categories and regions. so it will be a nice benchmark to see if the anti rauner stuff gets traction.

    i notice rauner himself rarely responds to attacks. safe. that way he cant be tripped up by the details. if a spokesman makes a mistake, or exaggerates, oh darn.


  12. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:26 am:

    Rauner’s campaign is praising CTGR’s management of TRS investments that benefited “special interests” like teachers and their unions, while in the same breath slamming Quinn’s “Special Interest Allies.”

    You can’t make this hypocrisy up.


  13. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:26 am:

    There are a couple of flights a day … to Duluth.

    They even fly back to Chicago from there too…


  14. - Norseman - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:26 am:

    They didn’t forget to include the Carhartt jacket.

    Finally the game has been joined.


  15. - BR - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:27 am:

    Great ad! This along with the flyer that went out should start having a major impact on the inflated Rauner poll numbers.


  16. - Wensicia - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:27 am:

    I like it, but can Citizen Rauner debunk its effectiveness?


  17. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    - langhorne -,

    I am sure Rich will get to the Poll, but something to look into;

    What is Rauner’s negativepolling at?

    Hmmm.

    Food for thought…


  18. - Diana Rauner - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:29 am:

    Rich how much did Brucey pay you to have all this information ready the day the ads went out? Looks like you have been working with the Rauner people for some time to have all that posted so soon. Maybe you should be featured in this ad too…


  19. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:30 am:

    That’s very funny. Considering those unions put Blagojevich in office.


  20. - Downstate - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    OW -
    If this were a two horse race, the campaign against Rauner might be effective. But the impact gets diluted when the vote does.

    Undecided voters, via this poll, keep breaking for Rauner. Long suffering Republicans are already sending me emails identifying this work as being paid for by unions. For them, it’s only reinforces Bruce’s message…..for now.


  21. - chad - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    It strikes me that this is hard to respond to with paid media. Difficult to admit he had contracts and made big cash without somehow allowing the viewer to infer a connection to the lobbyist. Tricky.


  22. - justsayin' - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    Too may excuses for Rauner by the Illinois media and too many excuses to attack Rutherford on what appears now to be just a rumor-filled lawsuit with no evidence of anything other than tall tales.


  23. - Chi - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    “The guy making the bribes already worked for the company when we bought it! He made more than anyone else at the company! What were we gonna do, fire him?”


  24. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:33 am:

    ===Rich how much did Brucey pay you to have all this information ready the day the ads went out? ===

    Are you insane? I got the Freedom PAC info late last night and asked the Rauner people for a response this morning around 9.

    Take a breath or take a hike, idiot.


  25. - Chi - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:35 am:

    “The guy making the bribes was a trustee on a huge pension fund we wanted money from! What were we gonna do, fire him?”


  26. - Norseman - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:35 am:

    BR, there will need to be a lot more like these to have a major effect. Plus, you’ll now see a ton of Baron response ads.

    The game is afoot.


  27. - langhorne - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    interesting rauner rebuttal

    three quotes from the trib. (endorsement to follow, no doubt)

    board vote was unanimous. of course it was, bruce told us the board was a rubber stamp for staff recommendations. except, the earlier vote went against him, so he had to show up and do the presentation himself. then levine voted in favor of it.

    cinda klickna made the motion to approve the $50 mil to rauner. that would be one of those evil union bosses, right? not so evil when lining your carhartt pockets.

    levine was ALREADY on the payroll when GTCR bought in. so much for vetting the companies and staff rauner buys, maybe knowing levine was there was a plus.


  28. - Chi - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    “The guy making the bribes for the company I owned had control over who the pension fund did business with! What was I gonna do, fire him?”


  29. - Sun - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:39 am:

    Oh, there’s Tribune quotes. Must be accurate.


  30. - Samurai - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:39 am:

    Stuart Levine?? “I see nothing, I know nothing.”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmzsWxPLIOo


  31. - Reformed Public Servant - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:40 am:

    Rauner will SHAKE DOWN, not SHAKE UP…brilliant ad! Let’s see if it has the $$ to get out there.


  32. - CicrcularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    Never forget that the Tribbies wrote how hard it was to get a CDL under SOS George Ryan when their then favorite candidate was correctly being accused of killing those kids in WI…Tribbie in- depth reporting should be a clue that this charge is with merit.


  33. - olddog - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:43 am:

    @ Diana Rauner 9:29 ==

    Gee, do you think Rauner’s people could have seen a Stu Levine ad coming and had a press release ready to go?

    Good ad, though. Wish they had the money to buy the bi-state markets.


  34. - Snucka - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:45 am:

    The ad is fine. It even might be effective. The problem is that it doesn’t present an alternative. If I’m a Republican voter and I am moved by this ad, what am I supposed to do about it?

    The anti-Rauner vote, if it exists, cannot be split up three ways if he is sitting at 40%. Rutherford is done and Dillard never started, so it seems like the 2010 loser is the only alternative. I’m not sure that worries Rauner too much.


  35. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    Rauner’s campaign: “I’m going to be a hands on CEO-style governor, just like I was in my businesses, except when it was convenient to not know what was going on. So don’t worry about that stuff.”


  36. - Meanderthal - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    If I saw that thing flick across my TV screen I am not sure I would understand it. Too fast moving and presumes lots of knowledge most voters don’t have or have long since forgotten.
    It looks like a Springfield insider ad.


  37. - Chi - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    “Look, the paper that’s in the bag for me says this baloney should be swept under the rug.”


  38. - Mokenavince - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:54 am:

    A desperate ad by desperate people. After listening to last nights debate, Rauner is
    a shoe in. Listening to the other 3 candidates
    debate was Dullsville.
    Rauner is going to win the primary. Why kill
    your front runner?


  39. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    It’s memorable. There will need to be a lot more of it to move the needle in the primary. The polls indicate GOP voters are locked-in for Rauner in a big way.


  40. - austinman - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:58 am:

    Where is the “like” button? Rich we need one


  41. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 9:58 am:

    Agree with word. Takes a fairly complicated relationship and makes it simple to understand. Would need to air many, many, many times to make an impact. It does tie in nicely with the mini-magazine sent out earlier.


  42. - James formerly from Wrigley - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    Can someone ask Chip Englander why it is appropriate to connect Pat Quinn to this ad which he had absolutely no control over and inappropriate to connect Bruce Rauner to Stu Levine who Rauner did have control over?


  43. - Hans Sanity - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    I’d guess the majority of GOP primary voters are already aware of the Rauner relationships presented by the ad but intend to vote for Rauner anyway.

    Perhaps they are not the target audience.


  44. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    A solid hit, but it may be too little, too late…


  45. - Labordude - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    Wordslinger,

    Where do you see Repub Primary voters “locked-in” as you say to BR? That is not what polling indicates. BR is the only candidate voters have heard from and there has been zero push-back on this paid media narrative. If BR drops five to seven points in the next two weeks and there is a corresponding five to seven point bump for one of the other candidates, this is a race.


  46. - Jake From Elwood - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    Best ad of the campaign so far.
    Biting and concise.
    Watching this ad once is far more effective than the 12 page tabloid sent over the weekend.
    The “other three” need more ads like this one and need for Rutherford to get out of the race to succeed.


  47. - Chris - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    Moke: “A desperate ad by desperate people. … Why kill your front runner?”

    You think that the unions paying for the ad want *any* of the Rs? The ad is from folks who want Quinn–this is sowing of discord.


  48. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:05 am:

    - Downstate -,

    I hear ya. That is why having the negative narrative months and months ago would be very helpful about …. now.

    The “2PACS” need to get the Rauner negatives above … 10 … yes, that is not a typo, 10… 10%.

    They have 5 weeks to get the negatives up and allow one of the two, (Rutherford is leaking oil, taking in water, pick yer metaphor) to try to then build off the peeling off of both the Rauner pluses, and from the 3rd person who is struggling at the moment.

    Ground Game can do it, if the 10% gets to 25% or higher, and that Ground Game “finds” those in the undecided unicerse quick enough and vote them their way.

    I mean, 5 weeks, jeez Louise, time was the commodity the “3″ could own, and now time is very much against them.


  49. - Jake From Elwood - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    The Rauner rebuttal is interesting. Apparently whatever might have happened in the background is ok because the pension trustees voted unanimously and an IEA member made the motion to invest. (h/t Langhorne). They are apparently OK because the investments averaged 25% return, but no benchmarks were included so who knows. Oh, and the Chicago Tribune vouches for him. Sad, sad little rebuttal.


  50. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    ===If BR drops five to seven points in the next two weeks and there is a corresponding five to seven point bump for one of the other candidates, this is a race. ===

    Yeah, a ten-point race.

    Just saying.


  51. - ZC - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:17 am:

    Wow. Not a Rauner fan, but if you haven’t, check out the website for “Illinois Freedom PAC” at www.illinoisfreedom.com

    Then click on “About Us.” Or “Contact Us.”

    And welcome yourself to the future of Illinois politics …


  52. - Northsider - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    I am harping on this, but I think it’s important. Levine was NOT on the TRS Board when Rauner’s firm bought CompBenefits in 1999. He went on the TRS Board under Rauner’s watch two years later. All of Levine’s TRS deals were done while he was on Rauner’s payroll.


  53. - Labordude - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:23 am:

    Rich,

    A ten point race beats the hell out of a twenty point race. At some point these other Repub candidates have to do some heavy lifting themselves. Pull themselves up by their own bootstraps, isn’t that what Republicans are supposed to do?


  54. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:25 am:

    ===A ten point race beats the hell out of a twenty point race.===

    Not if nobody has any money to close this thing.


  55. - Mavet365 - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:25 am:

    [Deleted for spamming violation.]


  56. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:26 am:

    - Labordude -,

    A ten-point race still makes Candidate Rauner, “Nominee” Rauner.

    The “margin for error” is usually 4-7% depending how good the polling is on every level.

    Ten points still calls Rauner, “Nominee”


  57. - The Myth and the Man - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    The ad is good and I am sold, but it and more will really need to saturate the market. Regrettably, the years of graft, corruption and governing malfeasance in Illinois has left a political vacuum into which “Outsider” Bruce Rauner rushes to fill. Rauner definitely has committed angry voters that are focused like a laser on his theme to get rid of career politicians.

    Outside of CapFax there is huge support for Rauner–or perhaps more aptly, there is huge anger at the “career politicians.” 5 weeks–lets go!


  58. - Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    - James formerly from Wrigley - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    “Can someone ask Chip Englander why it is appropriate to connect Pat Quinn to this ad which he had absolutely no control over and inappropriate to connect Bruce Rauner to Stu Levine who Rauner did have control over?”

    You’re kidding, right? It’s a union funded ad designed to soften Rauner up for the general election when he’ll be running against…Pat Quinn.

    BTW, the ad is pretty good for its purpose. I admit I was wrong that the unions wouldn’t come through with the money for this buy.


  59. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:31 am:

    I’m glad to see labor unions getting some skin in the game. The best thing that can happen for them is for Rauner to keep talking about right to work. If I was Rauner’s campaign, I would try to say as little as possible about that, given that my candidate is so far ahead in the primary.


  60. - Labordude - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:31 am:

    Willy,

    I am well aware of how polling works. Two weeks from now Rauner will not be the nominee. Look at your calendar for the date of the primary.


  61. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:37 am:

    Rich, just thinking here, if BR gets out of the gate..does this guarnatee PQ gets a full court press agaist BR from labor? They have not been real happy with him.


  62. - Louis G. Atsaves - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:37 am:

    The cartoon aspect of the ad was distracting. I don’t see this as moving the needle against Rauner. Rauner already warned the State that these bad guys would be recklessly and falsely attacking him according to his own narrative. They just played right into all that.

    Once pro-Blago unions are now anti-Rauner? Were they wrong then or are they wrong now?

    This is one very strange primary election.


  63. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:38 am:

    - Labordude -,

    Email me how it DOES work, I could use the help!

    In two weeks, if Rauner is not above 20% in the negative, the next three weeks wont matter too much, given the “3″ can’t get about 21%, Rauner is above 40%, there is no Ground Game to harvest the peeled Rauner supporters that the negative might bring …

    So … I will look at my calendar. Thanks for the tip, and I will look for the Politcal Primer in my email.


  64. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:44 am:

    ===The cartoon aspect of the ad was distracting===

    I actually prefer cartoon ads. They get noticed. Remember the “car” ad that Karl Rove did against Alexi? Devastating.


  65. - ZC - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:45 am:

    I’m curious about the IL election law here. So this organization filed with the State Board of Elections as a Super PAC stating it was created on February 5th. There are two names on its D-1, Jean Luft and an attorney named Michael C. Dorf.

    Based on disclosure laws, we will eventually find out exactly who contributed to IL Freedom PAC, and how much, but not until after the primary, when it finally has to file a quarterly disclosure form (which wouldn’t be until sometime in April)?

    I also like on its D-1 that it states, under which candidates it is committed to opposing, “To Be Determined By the Political Committee.” And if IL Freedom PAC shuts down, its assets are to be transferred to another committee “to be determined.”

    That’s all clear as mud. If you’re curious you can see the D-1 here: http://www.elections.il.gov/CampaignDisclosure/CDPdfViewer.aspx?FiledDocID=524040&DocType=Image


  66. - Labordude - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:47 am:

    Willy,

    Happy to help you out. Where should I send the email? I won’t even charge you for it.


  67. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:51 am:

    Send it to the Con$ulting Firm’s email.

    Hope there are pictures!

    I like the cartoon aspect, if they run another Ad(s), if they keep the theme, I like it. A caricature of a …caricature?


  68. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:54 am:

    I will tell - AA - to take off the “Spam Guard”


  69. - Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 10:58 am:

    Mavet365, along with your rant (which is factually incorrect in a number of places) and a link to your bizzare McPier blog, what did you think of the ad?

    I thought the message was on point and clearly delivered in the allotted time. I think those who have questioned the cartoon format and how well it works with folks less familiar with the issues than all of us raise valid points.


  70. - Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:08 am:

    PS: Northsider, feel free to harp, but what’s your point? Rauner funded Stu’s felonious pursuits? C’mon, man.


  71. - Quiet Sage - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:15 am:

    Rauner has won the primary. The effectiveness of the ad can only be to begin weakening Rauner for the general.


  72. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:19 am:

    - Quiet Sage -,

    - Labordude - is sending me a Politics Primer, and possibly a calendar, you want a calendar too?

    Rauner is at 10% negatives. Once the negatives grown, then we all will know where the race is at, given no one has attacked the front runner.

    I would tell you to give it two weeks, but lets wait for the Polling Primer in email two.


  73. - Bemused - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:28 am:

    Nice AD but not a knock out punch. This late in the game about only good justification for the Union involvement in this is the fact it sets the stage for the run to fall. In five weeks I am not sure you can tear up the groundwork the Bruce team has already laid.
    Just watching things go down it seems Bruce has made another big sale, without having to be the most conservative. It will now be an easy sidestep to “Moderate Bruce” the day after the primary. Seems the guy has taken to school some who thought they knew the coursework. I suspect the Rauner team already has Anti-PQ ADs in the can.
    Those on the other side need to set up a budget to start spending big after March.


  74. - Tom - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    you are all wrong on numbers moving. What will happen, if this ad has traction, is the numbers for everyone will start to move to undecided. It will take, at a minimum two weeks. If it does, there is a chance, a very faint chance, one of the others could capitalize (I doubt it). But, I agree with Rich. Not going to happen with out money. Kudos to Rauner’s team for running an excellent campaign. Don’t see them making the mistakes it will take to have them fall out of favor. But if this ad has any chance of moving the needle, the needle will be moved to undecided. One other point on numbers–if you run a campaign, you don’t want to peak 3 weeks out–you want to peak on election day. 3 weeks in a campaign in an eternity.


  75. - walker - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:35 am:

    Labordude: OK you’ve put down your marker.

    I look forward to your comment two weeks from now explaining how Rauner has lost. That’s Feb 25th, amigo.


  76. - x ace - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:45 am:

    Good Ad

    But makes we wonder?

    The “Hamm’s Bear” cartoon ads got banned, allegedly introducing kids to the evils of alcohol.

    Now we got “Clowns” in a cartoon introducing kids to the evils of Illinois politics.

    Confused, Think I’ll have a Yuengling.


  77. - A guy... - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:50 am:

    I’ll reserve judgement on the ad until I see what it does. It’s cute, the animation grabs you, but it might grab so much that it diverts the audio with the little guys jumping around in striped suits. You could conclude its an ad beating up on Blago. Stuart Levine, slinky creep that he is/was, still doesn’t raise the hair on necks out there in voter land. This strikes me as stretchy and indirect with not anywhere near enough gotcha in there to create traction. More effort in animation than message. We’ll see if it works.


  78. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:51 am:

    ===Think I’ll have a Yuengling.===

    That is an east coast beer, not found west of Ohio …

    Interesting choice of beer(?)


  79. - Chi - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:53 am:

    “Rauner already warned the State that these bad guys would be recklessly and falsely attacking him according to his own narrative. They just played right into all that.”

    So all a candidate has to do is “warn” people bad things will be coming out about him, and presto, the attack ads become a worthless and/or a strength? So no one should attack the Baron for fear of playing right into his game? Come on…


  80. - DuPage - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 11:53 am:

    …”the smell of napalm in the morning”..

    Illinois freedom pac…”ATTACK!!”

    Rauner camp…”INCOMING!!”


  81. - Labordude - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 12:02 pm:

    Walker and Willy,

    Let’s be clear, I have not put down a marker that says Rauner is going to lose. That would be silly. All I am saying is that this race has been engaged on a level playing field for the first time and it is possible that numbers will move. Without a legitimate challenger to take advantage of any opening created by this paid media blitz it is hard to see Rauner losing. But for the first time in this race, BR is being challenged in a serious and substantial way. It is a long, long way from November and Illinois is a decidedly Blue state. Currently, BR has convinced less than half of the minority party’s voters to support his candidacy. He has a lot of work to do to find another four million or so supporters. Keep some perspective boys, is all I am saying.


  82. - x ace - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 12:05 pm:

    OW
    An East Coast beer - PA based but has a FL brewery too . So can now get West to OH and North to TN.

    Right now Florida is the place to avoid the cold of Illinois’ winter (and the stench of Illinois politics.)

    Be back to go to the Polls.


  83. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 12:06 pm:

    ===But for the first time in this race, BR is being challenged in a serious and substantial way. It is a long, long way from November and Illinois is a decidedly Blue state. ===

    Um,…

    - Labordude - …

    I will get you that Calendar, because March coomes before November, and being a Republican, I am looking at the race at hand. If you want to face Rauner in November with Quinn, have at it.

    ===Keep some perspective boys, is all I am saying.===

    How about keeping it in February, looking at March first? Yikes!


  84. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 12:09 pm:

    - x ace -,

    Saw the Tampa Brewry buy a while back.

    “The oldest brewery in America” I like the Bock best.

    They only brew so much a year as well, setting a limit, even with the brewery in Tampa.


  85. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 12:20 pm:

    They have a Yuengling ice cream now too.

    Use the “search” key. Sounds interesting.

    To the Post,

    Is this the only Ad that is going to be run in the window and the buy that the group has?

    That would be interesting to know, Rich used “first” in the Post, so I thought I would ask.


  86. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 12:31 pm:

    Meanwhile, the Rauner money machine rolls on.

    More than $100K reported yesterday. $25K from a single donor last Friday. More than 100K on Thursday….


  87. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    ===…the Rauner money machine rolls on.===

    They will not take their foot off the gas until they have buried all comers. There is no let-up.

    Hear that PQ?


  88. - MrJM - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 1:04 pm:

    I also liked the ad’s cartoon form.

    But I’d also prefer that most everything to be in cartoon form, so YMMV.

    MrJM


  89. - Toure's Latte - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 1:41 pm:

    I thought it was a pretty good ad, but as wordslinger and OW point out, Rauner keeps the tidal wave of cash going. Keep pounding the ads and raising the cash and skip the rest of the debates seems a real possibility.


  90. - Challengerrt - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 1:54 pm:

    I love it. Let’s do a new poll, how many people believe that millionaires make all their money on the up and up?


  91. - Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 2:08 pm:

    Michael Dorf is a Democratic activist who had a long history as the election lawyer for Sidney R. Yates who had to withstand several challenges to his nominating petitions.


  92. - A. Nonymous - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Everyone keeps talking about the Anybody But Rauner vote… In a 4-way race that dog don’t hunt. Rauner could take 30% and still “win”.

    Besides, in an anti-incumbent environment Rauner is the only non-incumbent on any ballot - R or D.

    Quinn is going to have pound these Levine ties AND play the same cards Obama played against Romney’s vulture capitalism just to have a chance.

    He doesn’t have to match Rauner’s funds. Just needs to stay above water.


  93. - ZC - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 2:17 pm:

    UFR, thanks for the context.

    Seems like an “Evanston connection” to this new group …


  94. - Labordude - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 2:25 pm:

    Hey ZC,

    Stop thinking so hard. I can smell the smoke from here.


  95. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 3:09 pm:

    - ZC - could be burning calendars.


  96. - Walter Mitty - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 3:50 pm:

    Good ad. But what is now the conversation, what will happen when the Farmer is the winner in the primary? I have hoped for the other three… I wanted the other 3 to make it a choice… It does not appear to be. Reality. Will labor SUPPORT PQ? or support…? Will the party rally around the Farmer?


  97. - DuPage - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 4:50 pm:

    Rauner camp…”prepare counterattack!”…

    I am sure we will see a new Rauner ad very soon.


  98. - railrat - Tuesday, Feb 11, 14 @ 4:57 pm:

    good point Mr. Mitty, notice what “labor”(only one local) is behind the ad and mailing? as we assume, and what will that “labor” group do if they succeed ? support the GOP alternative or go back to PQ? old saying “speak with forked tongue”? it may not be only candidates with flawed identity?


  99. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 12, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    Only people on this hugbox will think this advertisement is factual. Maybe it’s effective because dregs only listen to 30 second soundbites instead of logic.

    But any ties will do to ‘get Rauner’, even if they’re tenuous


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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