* From the Tribune…
* From the polling memo, here are some percentages favoring repeal, with those who want to allow the law to stand in parentheses…
* Total: 60 percent (34)
* Metro Chicago: 49 percent (45)
* Downtate: 74 percent (22)
* Under $100K: 63 percent (32)
* Over $100K: 49 percent (49)
* Conservative: 69 percent (26)
* Moderate: 42 (53)
407 of the 600 respondents (or just over two-thirds) said they were conservatives and just 175 described themselves as moderates.
* To the Tribune’s article…
The state GOP controlled the governor’s mansion from 1977 to 2003, only to implode amid scandal and wander in the political wilderness ever since. The loss of a power base has seen the party’s once-dominant moderate faction give way to a more pronounced rightward tilt as Illinois has become more Democratic controlled and Chicago-centric.
“It’s not a very promising” landscape for Republicans, said Paul Warda, 66, a retired accountant from Lombard who lives in what once was the state’s staunchest GOP bastion — DuPage County. “Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot in their campaigns.”
The poll results illustrated one example of the ongoing split over social issues within Republican ranks: the state’s new same-sex marriage law, which was approved in November with three supportive Republican House members. Two of them face conservative primary challenges for re-election. The third, former House GOP leader Tom Cross, is running for state treasurer with nominal opposition in a low-key race.
Discuss.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:06 pm:
That’s a pretty good set-up for a debate question tonight. Let’s see which GOP candidate wants to win the battle more than he wants to win the war. I’m looking at you Kirk Dillard.
- Now What? - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:09 pm:
and there it is…the fact that the ILGOP’s even think this is an issue anymore place them further in the political wilderness. They need to cut bait with this crowd, and other social right wingers, and focus on bread and butter issues. Move to the center, and they’ll find DuPage, Lake, and collar Cook waiting for them like it’s 1977.
- Keyser Soze - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:13 pm:
Kind of softball questions. What would you expect traditionalists (i.e.,Republicans) to say. Had the survey dug a bit deeper it might of asked Republicans how they would fund schools, roads, prisons, etc., or how they would fix “entitlements.”
- Wensicia - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:14 pm:
Republicans cannot be a strong political force going forward unless they stop focusing on the social issues the rest of the country is quickly moving past.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:14 pm:
This kids, is why we fail….
Would have been interesting to see an age breakdown.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:16 pm:
Here’s to the 40%. Something to build on.
- Bill White - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:18 pm:
=== Republicans cannot be a strong political force going forward unless they stop focusing on the social issues the rest of the country is quickly moving past. ===
Long term I agree. However, can a statewide GOP candidate simply ignore those 74% downstate?
Either way, the IL GOP may be destined to follow the Whigs. Then, all of Illinois will be like Chicago was a while back, with a two party system comprised of regular Democrats and independent Democrats.
To paraphrase Sandra Bullock, all parties are Taco Bell, now.
- Sir Reel - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:18 pm:
I wish one of these polls would break down responses by age. Are young Republicans agreeing with this? Are there any young Republicans?
- OneMan - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:19 pm:
Sir Reel
Depends on how you define young?
- Will Caskey - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:20 pm:
I agree, Illinois Republicans should get right on that.
- Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:25 pm:
Gay marriage is a losing argument for the GOP, one social issue that has science in their favor is abortion. However, to many GOP candidates don’t use science, but their own opinions and beliefs on the matter. Then again, global warming and climate change is backed by science…
- Steve Reick - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:26 pm:
I’m on record as saying I’d have not voted for the bill, because I can’t imagine voting for it and then having a principled way of objecting when somebody proposes that polygamous or open marriages deserve equal protection.
That said, it’s not a hilltop I’m willing to die on. There are too many issues facing this State that are far more urgent. The law’s been passed, to spend time and political capital that’s better spent on pension reform, education and taxes is a disservice to the voters of Illinois.
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:32 pm:
It would also be interesting to see where this ranks on the list of importance for most of those 600 responders.
Most individuals would seem to place things like improving education, the economy, taxes, and so on ahead of repealing same sex marriage on their “to do” list.
- Bill White - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:33 pm:
Marriage equality is a losing issue for the GOP
Blocking access to contraception is a losing issue for the GOP
Supporting “equal time” for creation science is a losing issue for the GOP (except in Missouri)
It appears Obamacare actually will work out okay, making that a losing issue for the GOP
Climate change is real (temperatures at the North Pole have been 30 degrees above normal even as we get snow and ice in illinois) making that a losing issue for the GOP
Charters / vouchers should be a losing issue for the GOP
The moral seems to be this: Friends shouldn’t allow friends to be Republicans.
- qcexaminer - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:34 pm:
Republicans aren’t focused on social issues,they are only responding to a poll and this poll is just boob bait. Name one GOPer who is making social issues the centerpiece of his/her campaign? Except for the few who are challenging those who voted for ssm, name one GOP candidate who is running on repealing ssm. Does anyone really think these ssm repealers will win?
It is Democrats who want to focus on social issues because they can’t win on the economy, jobs, reform, etc. Illinois is at the bottom of practically every economic metric except exodus from the state—social issues are their only hope.
I understand why Rich decided to do this post, but don’t pretend it is the GOP candidates who are frothing at the mouth about repeal.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:35 pm:
== Charters / vouchers should be a losing issue for the GOP ==
Have to disagree on that one, I think if anything that can be a huge winner for the GOP even in districts without issues.
- Really Illinois? - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 12:59 pm:
I’d be willing to bet that 60% of downstate dems would want to repeal the law as well.
- Dave Fako - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 1:02 pm:
Side Note on this Poll: As a pollster with 25+ years experience with political and public policy polling, this is a classic disclaimer in the methodology statement, particularly the opening sentence. “Contrary to the more common Random Digit Dial (RDD) sampling from the last century, Registration Based Samples (RBS) do not include the general voting age population only, do not include eligible voters only, but we do include known, eligible voters who voted at least once in the last two elections”
- Dave Fako - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 1:10 pm:
Really Illinois said: “I’d be willing to bet that 60% of downstate dems would want to repeal the law as well.”
Since our firm did and / or I saw most of the polling in Illinois on this issue over the last decade, I can definitely say this statement would be false.
- Really Illinois? - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 1:13 pm:
Mr. White,
1) Where is it that Obama care seems to be “working out”?
2) Why is the tempature in the North Pole evidence of climate change, but the weather we are eperiencing here not? I guess I just don’t get that logic. Climate change is real, the cause of climate change is where the debate lies and if the change we are experiencing is more severe than what occured before records were kept.
On a side note, I’ve never heard of any GOP effort to block access to contraception. FYI, abortion is not contraception.
- Really Illinois? - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 1:15 pm:
Would would the % be for downstate dems Dave? I have no idea, but, from my experience as a lifelong resident, downstate dems are more like republicans than democrats on many issues.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 1:17 pm:
–On a side note, I’ve never heard of any GOP effort to block access to contraception. –
You can’t be serious. Try the google.
The GOP is not a monolith, of course. But those cats are out there.
- qcexaminer - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 1:22 pm:
On side note, what GOP candidate is campaigning on blocking access to contraception?
Where exactly are these “cats”—in the 21st Century, I mean. And with a legitimate shot at any elective office in Illinois? You can find anything on google—not all of it relevant.
Boob bait, I tell ya.
- Dave Fako - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 1:22 pm:
I cannot disclose actual numbers of specific references because of confidentiality, but even with a more conservative lean among downstate Democrats, 60% would not support repeal, when generally speaking a majority, or near majority, of downstate Democrats support legalized marriage equality for gay and lesbian couples. Several district level polls we conducted before the vote clearly show a majority of Democrats in those Districts supportive.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 1:26 pm:
“having a principled way of objecting when somebody proposes that polygamous or open marriages deserve equal protection”
There is no equivalence between same sex marriage and polygamy. There is no movement to legalize polygamy. It’s probably not what a large majority of voters want. Gay marriage is the same as heterosexual marriage, the marriage of two people. Polygamy is something totally different.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 1:44 pm:
Some Republicans are just not content on letting the issue die. It’s the law. The game is over. Move on already. All they are doing is continuing to paint the Republican party in a bad light. Republicans better get a handle on the social wing of their party.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:03 pm:
I smell a political set-up.
Why ask such a stupid question if it wasn’t meant to be a political set-up?
Its like polling Illinois Democrats and discovering that 60% believe the law on Parental Notification should be repealed and unrestricted abortions should be able to be performed at local Starbucks.
Really? We’re going to discuss gay marriage again?
- Cook County Commoner - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:05 pm:
Where are the Republicans in Illinois who have ideas on jobs, taxation and other fiscal issues? All they seem to talk about is abortion, gay marriage and guns. Don’t they understand that these are the hot button issues that the media will talk about, even if one of them unexpectedly articulated a specific plan to get Illinois back on its feet?
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:15 pm:
As Rich is fond of reminding us, sometimes a bill is just a bill. In this case, sometimes a poll question is just a poll question.
Let’s keep things in perspective a bit.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:20 pm:
===I smell a political set-up.===
Try using soap next time.
- MrJM - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:29 pm:
I have no idea why independent voters find it difficult to align themselves with Republicans.
– MrJM
- Toure's Latte - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:35 pm:
Yawn. The Trib needs to take a poll asking what they should be taking polls on.
- Jimbo - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:43 pm:
“How Not to Win Elections” a tragedy by the Illinois Republican Primary Voters
- PolPal56 - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:55 pm:
What is saddest about this sort of thing is that marriage equality nationwide is now inevitable. The USSC chose to have us painfully drag it out state by state rather than just settling it last June, but that does not make it less inevitable. Illinois has moved forward in social equality. There will be no repeal. This sort of thing needlessly stirs the stuff and riles up the hyper social conservatives, and they don’t need the stress.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:56 pm:
Willie posted a list the other day of the last GOP statewide winners over 40 years or so.
It’s easy to figure out on your own, if you’d like.
Long story short, we ain’t Dixie, and you can’t sell the national Fox/Dixiecrat/GOP right-wing moonshine here.
For crying out loud, in the 60s, Ev Dirksen was LBJs go-to guy on civil rights legislation. You know why?
Because he was from Peoria, it was the right thing to do for the folks and he was smarter than the average bear.
Can you dig it? I knew that you could.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 2:57 pm:
=== It appears Obamacare actually will work out okay, making that a losing issue for the GOP ===
Think polling there is against you.
To the Post,
The real follow up is;
“Do you require your GOP candidate to be for the repeal of SSM to get your vote?”
If that specifically is at or over 60%, and is above 80% of the 60% respondents as a sub-group, then My Party is really in trouble.
You can be against something, to make it a Litmus Test to be a GOP candidate is the real problem.
Shrinking a party through Slytherin purity will destroy the Reagan Rule opportunities.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:02 pm:
Gay rights no, choice rights no, Unions no, health care no, voters rights hell no, immigration no, Rauner no,gun rights yes.
GOP the party of Yes. I guess.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:06 pm:
–What is saddest about this sort of thing is that marriage equality nationwide is now inevitable. –
Nothing sad about it, daddio.
As far as Obamacare, meh, one day this Heritage Foundation, Big Insurance payday will be gone and the United States will join the rest of Planet Earth in recognizing healthcare as a utility, like electricity or water.
Remember, the dudes who ran those shows didn’t think you all had a right to that either.
Until then, the hardworking folks in eastern Kentucky and the rest of America who joined up for Medicaid and can finally see a doctor without going bankrupt are a-ok with it.
See you in church, and we can talk about it.
- Bill White - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:08 pm:
=== It appears Obamacare actually will work out okay, making that a losing issue for the GOP ===
Think polling there is against you.
=== Lets check back in November after the anti-Obamacare media frenzy wears off and people have actual experience with it being in place = = =
- dupage dan - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:16 pm:
Really, folks here are posting as tho this is part of the party platform. The post is about a poll commissioned by the Chicago Tribune and WGN. Folks being honest on a poll - still fresh in folks minds. OW had the vastly more important question - would you insist on that in order to get my vote? I won’t be holding my breath for the Trib folks to ask such a useful question - they might find out folks are coming to grips with the issue - that won’t sell any papers.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:16 pm:
Jim Thompson
Jim Edgar
Judy Baar Topinka
Lolita Didrickson
George Ryan
Jim Ryan
Dan Rutherford
Mark Kirk
Peter Fitzgerald - Ftzgerald beat Lolita to take on CM-B. Exception to the rule because of CM-B.
Those above the Fitzgerald entry did/do not scare moderates, conservative Dems, or moderate Indies.
They attract/ed Reagan Democrats.
They understand Unions, and relate/d to people, just people.
They live/d the Reagan Rule of 80%, and seek/sought common ground to move agendas forward. The art of politics was not lost to the taint of Purity.
“More like these, please.”
- Jimbo - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:22 pm:
DD, the folks who think that way are going to decide which candidates get slated for the general. If they select candidates who agree with them on this issue, they will find those candidates losing the general. I’m not saying this one issue will determine the primary, just that if it does, November doesn’t look pretty.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:24 pm:
===Really, folks here are posting as tho this is part of the party platform.===
“The Republican Party endorses a constitutional amendment protecting our Defense of Marriage Act and enshrining in constitutional law marriage as it is defined in our “DOMA.””
http://illinoisreview.typepad.com/Illinois%20Republican%20Party%20Platform.pdf
Yes Dan, it’s not like it’s in the ILGOP Platform. Where did anyone get that idea?
The good news though is that 60% of Republicans agree with the party platform. So it’s working.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:26 pm:
- Bill White -,
Polling ain’t improving on Obamacare, as the polling in My Party on social issues and Purity is giving the impression Slytherin House Republicans are not inclusive.
The rollout has dampened it so badly, it’s like SSM insofar as the presentation to others is worse than maybe the law itself(?)
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:30 pm:
Slytherin Jim Oberweis tried numerous times to remove Pat Brady specifically on SSM and the ILGOP platform.
Period.
So yeah, it is a Party Platform issues with Purity and an non-inclusive “building” of a minority of members, alike in Purpose and Purity, but not enough to get a back room for the SGOP at a Denny’s, being below 20, and 18/19 against SSM.
That… is real.
- Bill White - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:40 pm:
- Oswego Willy -
Well okay then, maybe all the IL GOP US House candidates should run on a “repeal Obamacare” platform.
As always, with considerable respect . . .
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:45 pm:
“one day this Heritage Foundation, Big Insurance payday will be gone”
It will be interesting to see if more states use an ACA waiver to do a public option. Vermont already started on the path to a government option. Other states may follow. If Republicans win in 2014, it will set back reform even further, even though they still won’t have the power to repeal Obamacare.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:46 pm:
- Bill White -
Jim Oberweis has already said he is running on the Obamacare debacle.
However, Slytherin Oberweis has commercials with empty stadiums and SSM quotes to outrun first.
No worries - Bill White - and to bring it back to SSM, it is going to be up to Leader Durkin to decide the impact of SSM I’m the general election, so I would guess this poll will leave it out if rotation in places Durkin may want to consider winning over Indies and Conservative Dems.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 3:54 pm:
Willy, while Obamacare is not popular, polls also show generally if not always that people prefer keeping and fixing it rather than repealing it. There are also those who want to go further than the ACA. If you combine support for ACA with those who want to go further, there is a large group of people who support expanding health insurance.
I think the cat is out of the bag on health insurance, and there is no going back to what was there before Obamacare. As more and more people enroll, it will be harder and harder to go back to what was there pre-ACA.
- chi - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 4:03 pm:
The other candidates need to pin Rauner down on this at the next debate. Do not take “let the people decide” for an answer. Have some spine. Some intestinal fortitude
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 4:04 pm:
- Grandson of Man -,
I am coming from it as such;
Repeal, don’t repeal, leverage to win elections, today, is the motivator. That is the political, and why IL GOP congressionals will not go too far off the reservation, say got Hultgren or Roskam, maybe.
Slytherin Oberweis is a nightmare on people/social issues statewide, and Obamacare/Durbin will try to put salve on that mortal wound of elections lost in the past.
Arguing politically, nothing more, and through the Oberweis prism.
- Frosty-The Snowman - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 4:45 pm:
Perhaps a better question would have been: How many of you Republicans can say that you even care one way or another about this social issue? My guess is that it doesn’t matter one way or another to the state’s voters unless the financial implications of same-sex marriages negatively impact the Illinois voter’s wallet.
- BobInPeoria - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 5:05 pm:
The people that I hear complaining most about gay marriage are overwhelmingly blue-collar Democrats, both black and white!!!
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 5:40 pm:
@Frosty-TheSnowman - exactly. It is a decidedly vocal, and generally powerless, minority of individuals who place this issue at the top of their “to-do” list.
It might be a different story if there were a bill to repeal with multiple sponsors and votes in both houses in place.
Otherwise, it’s pretty significant that in the span of just a few years, nearly 40% of Illinois Republicans support gay marriage. Of course, that won’t generate as much “controversy” as focusing on the rest who, by and large, aren’t breaking out the pitchforks anyways.
As for Obamacare? It’s still underwater in Illinois: 185,000 individuals had their policies cancelled vs. 88,602 individuals who have selected a plan as of February 1st.
That’s a problem by any measure.
- Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 7:44 pm:
Gee, Reupublicans here in Illinois are even far more conservative than I THOUGHT! And to think some key GOP Legislators voted FOR that controversial Bill, to boot! Oh well–good for them–you have to be HONEST about these queries after all!!!
- Michelle Flaherty - Tuesday, Feb 18, 14 @ 9:38 pm:
By polling all 600 likely Republican primary voters, the Tribune was able to get the margin of error down to zero.
- persecuted - Wednesday, Feb 19, 14 @ 8:09 am:
Enough with the social issues; it’s the economy, stupid.
- erik - Wednesday, Feb 19, 14 @ 8:19 pm:
amazing that in spite of the constant bombardment of pro gay propaganda in the media most people in this poll still recognize what common sense should tell everyone…that marriage is between a man and a woman..