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Pigs, wings, fly

Tuesday, Feb 25, 2014

* Illinois Review

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady claims new poll results show the Republican primary is now a two-way race between himself and businessman Bruce Rauner.

“We think our support is growing and Bruce Rauner’s support is waning, Senator Kirk Dillard’s has capped off,” Brady told reporters on a phone call Monday afternoon. Brady said his campaign planned to share their findings in the next few days. “Rauner’s support is very superficial,” he said.

* I happen to agree with Brady that he’s the second choice of lots of voters. I’ve been told about other polling that supports my theory.

But, really, so what?

If somebody magically gave Brady $2 million today I think he could make this a real race.

But the hard truth is nobody’s gonna give him that money.

* Dillard ain’t getting out of the race because he has the IEA cash keeping him afloat. Rutherford ain’t getting out because he doesn’t want to admit to wrongdoing.

This is all just fantasy talk.

* Maybe Brady can make a late run up the right side like he did in 2010, but Brady raised a whole lot more cash back then than he has this time.

Two members of my family are taking Republican ballots to “stop Rauner.” Trouble is, they have no idea what to do with that ballot. They had been for Rutherford, but not now. They don’t really know much about Dillard and they’re not exactly ideologically aligned with Brady (or Dillard, for that matter).

* So, hey, maybe there will be a gigantic surprise on primary day. But until Brady can demonstrate he can compete on the “real” playing field (TV) and not just show up for events and issue press releases, then what chance does he have?

Money talks, kids. And hope ain’t a plan, especially this late in the game.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


36 Comments
  1. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:34 am:

    “Money talks, kids”

    My friend used to say that without money, not even God cares.


  2. - Jim'e' - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:37 am:

    Man, I agree totally with your relatives. I was planning on pulling a repbulican ballot, but with the Rutherford stuff happending I’m at a loss. Why would I want to see a repeat of four years ago and vote for Brady? Althought I agree with his hard pension vote, and feel Dillard copped out when he had a chance to stand for something.


  3. - PublicServant - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:37 am:

    Money talks is exactly the wrong thing to say about the pernicious effects of money in politics. It encourages the belief that Money is speech. Money is volume, and Rauner is using it to drown out any discussion of ideas (whether conservative or not), proven by Rauner dominating the airwaves and saying nothing.


  4. - Jim'e' - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:38 am:

    sorry for the ‘misspellings’


  5. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    When placing 2nd means winning the Nomination, let me know…


  6. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:47 am:

    “pernicious effects of money in politics”

    The very people who want to curb the power of special interests in politics are flooding the system with money.

    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, several or many times over.


  7. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:47 am:

    “I coulda been a contenduh!”


  8. - Westward - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:49 am:

    I lean with the maybe there will be a surprise come primary day. Having said that, people can talk that talk about pulling ballots to “stop BR” but I’m not buying it. Until proven otherwise, history suggests voters are scarce and apathetic on primary dates when you must pull a partisan ballot and had that information documented.


  9. - Wensicia - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:52 am:

    Brady, Dillard and Rutherford act like they believe second place counts for something. None of them are an acceptable default for Rauner at this point, so their squabbling that they can prevail by staying in primary is ridiculous.


  10. - Boone's is Back - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:58 am:

    ===Money talks, kids. And hope ain’t a plan, especially this late in the game.===

    I imagine the GOP hopefuls reading that today and legitimately crying.


  11. - PoolGuy - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 10:58 am:

    in addition to OW’s comment, do they award silver medals in primaries?


  12. - Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    And this is precisely why I have been predicting a Rauner win for the past year, despite being mocked by some folks around here. You don’t beat Rauner with three fatally flawed candidates.

    Rutherford flamed out, more or less, for the reasons I expected. Sure - nobody saw it happening quite so bizarrely but we knew what was going to be his undoing.

    Dillard has contorted himself into such an ideological pretzel that he doesn’t know which end is up and Brady is deluding himself if he thinks he’s going to stop Rauner with his $55,000 raised or whatever the current feeble figures are.

    This is Rauner’s race to lose and he will have to do something spectacularly stupid to lose it at this point.


  13. - A guy... - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:10 am:

    There just may be enough people out there who want to “fire” these guys for their share of the economic disaster of the past decade. Pat Quinn benefited greatly from the mantra of “at least this guy won’t wind up in prison”. The expectations are low and still not being met. When the unions are the 800 lb. gorilla throwing around all the cash, you hear some scuttlebutt. When it’s a guy poring a lot of dough into his own campaign it’s decisively louder. There is some apathy. Even some disgust. Rich or not, BR is a fresh face to people and that’s going a long way right now. It helps that he’s run an uber competent campaign and looks like a guy who enjoys it. He’s not road weary. The others are.


  14. - downstate hack - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:10 am:

    Dillard is the only option to stop Rauner and beat Quinn. Brady has no money, and couldn’t beat Quinn in a Repub year.


  15. - A guy... - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:17 am:

    Downstate Hack, little snark, but playfully…..Boss, boss, da plane!


  16. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:17 am:

    –If somebody magically gave Brady $2 million today I think he could make this a real race.–

    I agree. From my observation, people Downstate are dying for someone out of the Chicago metro, regardless of party.

    The fact that Bill Brady can’t raise $2 rocks, from anywhere, just shows you how well Rauner has locked down the money.

    His fundraising peeps are going to have a lot of work in the years to come. They are rock stars.


  17. - Out Here In The Middle - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:22 am:

    Nevada includes a “none of the above” choice on ballots. Given the choices it seems like a good move.


  18. - From the 'Dale to HP - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:25 am:

    If someone gave Dillard $2 million today it’d be an interesting race. Rauner’s support is more process of elimination than it’s “strong Rauner”. Has anyone met a strong Rauner?

    If Dillard got up on TV today and every day for the next three weeks this could be interesting. But he won’t and this won’t be interesting.


  19. - Tommydanger - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:40 am:

    I just don’t get the Quixote-like campaign that Rutherford has now chosen. He has virtually no chance of winning and by remaining in he virtually guarantees a Rauner win.

    Will Republicans remember him more fondly as a flawed person who strategically left the primary so more viable candidates could challenge Rauner or a flawed, delusional and irresponsible person who stayed in thereby ensuring a Rauner win.


  20. - Downstate Weed Chewing Hick - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:42 am:

    -If Dillard got up on TV today and every day for the next three weeks this could be interesting-

    The people who already know Dillard the best, those in his own district, don’t favor him. He is going nowhere statewide, even with the magic $2 Mil.


  21. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:54 am:

    ===If Dillard got up on TV today and every day===

    Yeah, and if the Cubs didn’t suck, they’d win the World Series every year.


  22. - OneMan - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:57 am:

    == Yeah, and if the Cubs didn’t suck, they’d win the World Series every year. ==

    Now that is just crazy talk…


  23. - Westward - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 11:59 am:

    The notion that if Brady or Dillard somehow had an influx of cash to run TV ads is a flawed notion. For every dollar they could muster, BR would throw 10x that right back at them with his own flood of ads. Whoever said it’s BR’s race to lose is about spot on. I can’t help but say it again, just because you’ve been a lawmaker, elected, in Springfield for many years doesn’t make you the smartest politico. VMan was so dead on: the time for fresh is ripe and the past is old mold to so many voters.


  24. - PoolGuy - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 12:19 pm:

    Rich now the Cubs don’t suck this year… yet


  25. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    To the Post,

    This idea of being the “alternative” to both Rauners is just Folly, politically speaking.

    To be an alternative, you need to show competence in message, execution, the means to elaborate that you are the alternative, and finally BE seen as a legitimate contender beyond one race, and towards the second race.

    No snark, the “3″, while real ballot choices by virtue of…being on the ballot, are not choices seen as “able to” compete the mission of beating both Rauners and the other “2″ come March.

    No money.

    No Organizational apparatus.

    No GOTV, adding no “pluses ” harvested to build upon raw vote totals.

    The financial constrains have diminished the reality of victory. Claiming second, does not a Nominee make.

    As “Buck” Weaver asked “Chick” Gandil, “Show me somethin’!”

    I have been shown nothing, and even the Crickets are silent too.


  26. - anonymoose - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 12:54 pm:

    I know a committeeman passing out literature “vote for Brady” - so there is some sign of a ground game. Trouble figuring out who to vote for, but I am resigned to a Brady re-tread. Bill Brady 2014….”STOP RAUNER - MAKE SIX MILLION DOLLAR MAN SPEND IT ALL.”


  27. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 1:06 pm:

    IF THIS POLL SHOWED BRADY AHEAD TEN POINTS, WE ALL KNOW WHAT THAT WILL MEAN ON ELECTION DAY - RIGHT?

    Bill - shoot for a twenty point lead, then I’ll listen to you.


  28. - Angry Republican - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 1:55 pm:

    “in addition to OW’s comment, do they award silver medals in primaries?”

    I think we can all agree that second place gets steak knives


  29. - In the Middle - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 2:14 pm:

    In 2010, it took Brady awhile to concede defeat. He just couldn’t accept it then and he’s not accepting it now.

    Pyrrhic victory? Pyrrhic, but no victory.


  30. - Harley - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    I found it interesting at the recent gubernatorial debate in Springfield that Bruce Rauner was the only candidate that did not speak to his advisors during the TV breaks.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    ===I found it interesting at the recent gubernatorial debate in Springfield that Bruce Rauner was the only candidate that did not speak to his advisors during the TV breaks.===

    How much advice does one need when the talking points are;

    Career Politicians, Union Bosses, “Shake up Springfield”, term limits…and nothing else.

    The guy is a Billionaire, Rauner can remember a half dozen talking points, lol


  32. - Downstater - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 3:18 pm:

    If, and it is a gigantic “if”, Brady would win the primary, as “Dandy” Don Meredith sang, “turn out the lights. It’s over!”


  33. - Wensicia - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 4:30 pm:

    The hardest thing for Brady, Rutherford and Dillard to face is the big money people no longer feel they need to back the best politician in the Republican Party. They can just back one of their own, buying the office outright; political skills and a detailed message are quite unnecessary.


  34. - Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 5:09 pm:

    ==I found it interesting at the recent gubernatorial debate in Springfield that Bruce Rauner was the only candidate that did not speak to his advisors during the TV breaks.==
    Agree. I wonder if, like Quinn, he’s his own advisor.


  35. - Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 5:10 pm:

    == political skills and a detailed message are quite unnecessary.==
    I’m no Rauner fan, but he does seem to me to have some natural political skills (fundraising, sticking with talking points, he knows how to use his money to influence). And I’m not sure a detailed message is a path to victory in a republican primary.


  36. - Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Feb 25, 14 @ 9:00 pm:

    From the Post: “This is all just fantasy talk.” Well-put/my sentiments exactly…! Oh, sure, shockers occur, like BB pulling off that 193 vote margin feat four years ago, but…just don’t see that happenin’ this time, all things considered with even almost a whole month to go, barring some unbelievable/unpredictable development. Nope–sorry to the Dreamers out there, but, not this time. It’s over on the GOP Side, and which the Pro-Quinn Dems.’assault reflect, is now, as evidenced by those same PACs’ TV Ads bashing br–and against br alone–running day and night/high and wide now…!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Good morning!
* Final thoughts before calling it a night
* *** UPDATED x3 - Script *** Quinn airs radio ad of Rauner joking about being "scared" of four African-Americans
* Karen Lewis endorses Chuy Garcia for mayor
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* Yesterday's blog posts

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