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A bump up, but there is no silver medal in campaigns

Wednesday, Feb 26, 2014

* Sen. Kirk Dillard has jumped 4 points since the last We Ask America poll on February 18th, and nine points since February 13th. The IEA endorsement is having an impact, along with Dan Rutherford’s major troubles.

But second place is still second place. The latest We Ask America results, with previous two results (most recent first) in parentheses

Rauner: 36% (35, 39)

Dillard: 17% (13, 8)

Brady: 13% (14, 11)

Rutherford: 7% (8, 8)

Undecided: 27% (30, 35)

* Methodology, etc

Poll type: Automated - Date: 2/25/2014 - Participants: 1,178 Likely GOP Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3%

* Rauner, Brady and Rutherford are plateauing, Dillard is rising. But Dillard is probably gonna need vastly more resources than he currently has to pull closer to Rauner. Besides the $50K from the IEA last week, he’s raised just $9K in recent days. But there is a bit more coming

The Illinois Retired Teachers Association is backing state Sen. Kirk Dillard, the Hinsdale Republican is expected to announce on Wednesday.

The group is some 35,000-members strong.

A source with knowledge of the endorsement said there’s a likelihood that the group will send out a direct mailer backing Dillard’s candidacy to its members.

That mail program won’t be very big unless the IRTA PAC raises more than the $64K it had on hand.

* And while Brady and Dillard are publicly sniping at each other over who is the best candidate to challenge Rauner, the kabillionaire is going full steam ahead with lots of TV ads attacking Gov. Pat Quinn and the entrenched Statehouse establishment.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


74 Comments
  1. - Soccermom - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    I think you’ll find you’re wrong there, Rich. Because both Dillard and Brady have “silver medalist” featured prominently in their campaign bios. “This time for sure!”

    Dillard and Brady — the favored candidates of Cubs fans…

    (And yes, I’m a Cubs fan. So I know all about coming very, very close to victory.)


  2. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    ===And yes, I’m a Cubs fan. So I know all about coming very, very close to victory===

    When?


  3. - Downstate - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    Ground game.

    Rutherford’s campaign was distinguished from the other three, by the fact he had a ground game. The others do not.

    If the IEA and retired teachers can put feet on the ground, this could become a horse race for Dillard.

    Any idea what the prospects of that might be?


  4. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:31 am:

    Dillard seems like the most palatable alternative for former Rutherford supporters. He could get another boost if Rutherford were to drop out and NOT endorse him. Still unlikely to catch Rich Uncle Pennybags though given the $ disparity and the lead.


  5. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    Up three games to one on the Marlins, with Zambrano set to take the bump, followed by Prior then Wood, if needed.

    It’s a sure thing.


  6. - Under Further Review - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:34 am:

    More anti-Rauner mailers are being delivered. I just received one on the subject of working families and the minimum wage. The piece depicts Rauner as a vulture capitalist. I think that he is out of touch as a member of “the Billionaire Boys’ Club.”


  7. - Levi - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:35 am:

    Rich, remind us, is there a sore loser law in Illinois that would prevent a Dillard or Brady from running as an independent in the fall? (I’m not suggesting either would do that; just interested in whether it’s possible.)


  8. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    ===is there a sore loser law in Illinois===

    Yes.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    To the Post,

    Yes, silver medals do not mean Nominations or Electoral victory.

    Dan Rutherford has now gone from “distraction” to unmitigated spoiler. Dan Rutherford went from Front Runner to single digits.

    You are done, Treasurer, the minute you stepped out and spoke that “Friday Fiasco”.

    @FakeRutherfordDan - worked for Reagan Campaign, run like Nixon Campaign. #CoverUpWorseThanDopiness.

    To Dillard and Brady;

    Find and vote “pluses”. Literally find and vote them. All you both have left is GOTV and Election Day. You must have the infrastructure set, otherwise, you are just wasting everyone’s time.


  10. - Endangered Moderate Species - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:40 am:

    My wife made an interesting comment last night during a Rauner commercial. She said, “I am already tired of that guy.” It made me wonder if Rauner is nearing his saturation point.


  11. - olddog - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:45 am:

    Rich @ 9:25am

    Spring training?


  12. - Pensioner - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    You repubs who want a fighting chance at electing a repub Gov better find find someone other than the rich boy Astroturf tea bag Koch bros supported cheap watch overall wearing phony Rauner. He will NEVER win a general election in IL. Tx SC maybe. Not here. Hope I made myself clear.


  13. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:54 am:

    Over saturation of Rauner because we’ve been locked up in our homes most of the winter due to the severe cold is getting on my nerves as well.


  14. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    Interpretation:

    The GOP base has doubts about Rauner.

    Neither Dillard nor Brady has much chance of catching Rauner w/o new development.

    While there is a large undecided block (27%), Dillard is 19 pts down. If any of the undecideds break to Rauner then Rauner’s won.

    A scenario that might stop Rauner is if Rutherford calls Dillard and Brady together.

    Rutherford explains he can’t quit the race unless either Dillard or Brady quits with him.

    If Rutherford plus one quit and endorse the remaining non-Rauner candidate, this creates possibility for Dillard or Brady to win.

    Since Dillard did withdraw rather than force Brady to spend a bunch of money there should be a degree of trust between the two.

    Of course, if Rutherford et al do this, Rauner will retaliate by saying a bunch of Springfield insiders cut a deal b/c they see him as a threat to their insider deals.

    But Dillard and Brady don’t really have a shot at this point, absent some Democratic-aligned fatcats pouring money into a huge anti-Rauner campaign.

    Does Dillard have a favor to call-in with Obama? Would Obama go against Rahm’s guy?


  15. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:59 am:

    - Pensioner -,

    It will be up to the Quinn Crew to define “Bruce Rauner” and Bruce Rauner. If they don’t, both Rauners will run away and hide while lobbing grenades at Quinn, and Union Bosses and Career Politicians, and term limits, and referendum leading, and CEO governing…

    Far, far, far from easy for Quinn Crew. Like the complete opposite of easy against both Rauners.


  16. - the Patriot - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:59 am:

    Same script, new actors(some). The undecided have not bumped anyone beyond the margin of error in recent republican races. 6 months ago I said the only chance anyone but Rauner had was for all of them to fold the campaigns into 1.

    As much as I like to hammer on how terrible the dems in this state are, I think we are going to end up with Quinn yet again because all the republicans refuse to set their personal ambitions aside and put one good candidate forward. The GOP should have picked 2 of Dillard, Rutherford, and Brady for one ticket a year ago and kept everyone else out. The democrats are responsible for killing this state, but the egos of the republicans are responsible for the democrats being in charge. And it will be that way for 4 more years.


  17. - Worth It - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    None of these camps has a true GOTV. Rauner may end up with one with his phone banking and the help of local party endorsements.

    It’s doubtful that Dillard and/or Brady somehow turned their 2010 weakness into an strength. Especially with no money to kick start those efforts and even fewer political supporters behind them this time.

    It’s nice to fall back on your GOTV efforts but unless you have done the work and have institutional support via unions, PACs and local organizations or enough money to buy your own, it will never materialize.


  18. - Under Further Review - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    I am wondering if it would be better for Brady or Dillard to withdraw from the Republican primary and to begin collecting petitions to file as independent candidates for the general election?
    Is this an option? I vaguely remember Adlai Stevenson dropping out as the Democratic nominee in ‘86 and running as a third party candidate.


  19. - Veritas - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    All of these polls are from “likely Republican voters”. This election outcome will be determined by how many Dems & Independents crossover & pull Republican ballots. That number may be significant and those won’t be Rauner votes. Do not write Dillard off. Ali won a lot of fights with the “rope-a-dope”. Rauner spent over $10 million bucks & owned the media for several months and is in the mid-30% and pundits say he is running away with it!! They forget 2006 & 2010. McKenna had a similar lead with 2 weeks to go & he didn’t have a fraction of the baggage that Sgt. Schultz has.


  20. - Bobo - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    The poll shows that Rutherford is done. Rauner has stalled. Brdy is fading and Dillard is the alternative to Rauner. That is very good news for Dillard because with 27% undecided there is a lot of room to grow.

    If the anti Rauner attack ads can get him down around 30% he will be an easy mark, especially if the unions organize a crossover to take him out. Those votes are not counted in any poll.

    If Rauner were smart, and he appears to be, he should trash Dillard ASAP


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    ===Adlai Stevenson dropping out as the Democratic nominee in ‘86 and running as a third party candidate. ===

    Adlai won the primary, so he was not precluded from switching parties at that time. If you lose, you’re out.


  22. - BDuty6 - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    After listening to Dillard speak at an event this week, let me assure everyone that there is NO way he’s getting out to let Brady have a shot at Rauner. He took just as many swipes at Brady as he did Rauner in his stump speech. There will be no assistance for Brady coming from the Dillard camp.


  23. - Pensioner - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:15 am:

    I am a dyed in the wool Democrat who despises Quinn and there are many more like me. If repubs could front a centrist candidate I would consider voting for (gasp) a republican. If Rauner is the candidate I will be forced to hold my nose and vote for Quinn.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:17 am:

    ===None of these camps has a true GOTV. Rauner may end up with one with his phone banking and the help of local party endorsements.===

    Yep. That is the ball game, today.

    - Cincinnatus - and the Dillard Crew need the focus on the teachers, GOTV, actually getting known voters who support Dillard voting.

    Brady’s Crew must get the far Right motivated, and those groups of the Right voting known Right voters via lists they have and groups with significant education apparatuses to be involved actively in Election Day and GOTV workings,

    Both Dillard and Brady have yet to “show” the skeletal makeup of a GOTV to get it done. Yet. Will they? It is their only hope.


  25. - Could be - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    GOP is deciding what to do I know I am? There is three weeks that’s when they decide and Rauner has tried and got 36%. Dillard was second by 198 votes last time and might have won the general last time, Rauner isn’t ready for prime time now Bobo could be on to something.


  26. - Gabe - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    IRTA wouldn’t have to pay for mailing with a PAC. Member to member communications can be paid with general treasury dollars.


  27. - Samurai - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    The case for Kirk Dillard. If Bruce Rauner has plateaued in the polls along with his actual support, then any Rauner movement will be downward. Based on recent polling and talk in the precincts, voters are starting to answer for themselves the question, “who is Bruce Rauner?” Whatever can be said about the source of the Anti-Rauner Ads, they have at least encouraged intelligent voters to start their own due diligence.

    Has Rauner’s ad barrage and epic spending reached the point of diminishing returns? Are some voters actually sick and tired of hearing him? Yes.
    In Dillard’s case, he has the career politician label securely affixed to him. But, when objectively considering what Rauner offers and the issues raised about how he acquired his wealth and how he has wielded the power and influence that comes with that wealth, Dillard may be the more desirable candidate for governor.

    Personal Background: A tie. Rauner flipped burgers and parked cars, attended Dartmouth and Harvard. Dillard went to Western Illinois University and DePaul Law School.

    Government Experience. Advantage Dillard. Government experience is a plus, not a negative. Dillard has experience in all three branches of government. We all agree that the business of government is not the same as private business.

    Business Experience. Advantage Rauner. No doubt that Bruce Rauner was/is a successful partner in a private equity firm. He understands business.

    However, Dillard has been a partner for years at a national law firm and has dealt with legal issues affecting businesses and individuals. Dillard also sponsoring legislation related to McCormick Place and Navy Pier and legislation to bring Boeing to Illinois and to encourage Navistar to move its headquarters from Indiana back to Lisle, Illinois.

    Lt. Governor Choice. Jil Tracy has the most significant business and government experience of any Republican Lt. Governor candidate. She has worked as the West Central Illinois Assistant Attorney General, has been a State Representative since 2006, involved with Dot Food and was a member of the Investigative Impeachment Committee that Blagojevich and impeachment.

    Meanwhile Evelyn Sanguinetti doesn’t even show for the one and only Lt. Governor debate held in her minutes from her home.

    With just under three weeks, the voter opinion just might move away from Mr. Rauner. And if the Dillard crew can get an Oswego Willy GOTV ground game, who knows.


  28. - chad - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:36 am:

    I see little evidence of credible ground activity for either Brady or Dillard outside of localized Brady activity in E-C Illinois. Brady’s polling results already show him with a natural allocation of conservative GOP support, so I don’t see any supplemental conservative “surge” to help him — especially without some spending. These drop-out concepts just don’t happen in Illinois, and all three look to remain all-in. So, I think we have a “sleeper hold” on the GOP here. Hard to imagine we don’t have Oberweis/Rauner at the top of the ticket.


  29. - One ofthe 35 - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:37 am:

    Rich: Have to disagree with you. Dillard is not in 2nd place. That guy “undecided” is in 2nd place.


  30. - RNUG - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    While it’s easy to read too much into numbers, it looks like a significant portion of the undecided moved into the Dillard camp. It MIGHT be a horse race if Brady and Rutherford were to bow out NOW.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    ===Meanwhile Evelyn Sanguinetti doesn’t even show for the one and only Lt. Governor debate held in her minutes from her home.===

    When you know you are not qualified to run the 5th largest state in America, if the situation demands it, would you show up anywhere to be questioned about credentials?

    === So, I think we have a “sleeper hold” on the GOP here. Hard to imagine we don’t have Oberweis/Rauner at the top of the ticket.===

    My biggest fear, is that right there, and it’s like watching a car crash in slo-mo, and I just can’t stop it.


  32. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    If Brady, Dillard and Rutherford can’t get together on who is the anti-Rauner candidate, it’s Bruce Rauner’s GOP.

    If Rauner drives it into the ditch, ya’ll can hate on Rauner.

    But if Rauner wins the general, Rauner might keep you around if you kiss the ring. But Rauner might decide you aren’t necessary or even useful.


  33. - Bobo - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    Il GOP voters don’t care one iota about Rauner or his positions, the just want the guy who can take out Quinn and the Dems. Amusingly, they may wind up with the guy because of Dem money and Dem voters.


  34. - circularfiringsquad - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 10:55 am:

    D-Lard wouldn’t say but the retired teachers reported $1.8 million in the bank so when the pay for their vote it could be substantial


  35. - dupage dan - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 11:06 am:

    Dillard, Brady and Rutherford are standing in a circle staring at each other hoping the other ones blink first. 3 political egos with what arguably is their political futures on the line.

    The primary is 3 weeks away - NONE of them will blink. It’s Rauner by a rather large nose.


  36. - chad - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 11:10 am:

    The few dreamers on this site probably have it right, in that it really would take the three agreeing on one of them, holding the aggregate 37%, and jointly campaigning hard. Even then, it would be no easy lift. Many of us know all three of these guys, and just don’t envision such a development. I don’t think any of them have genuine hatred for any of the others, but at least 2 think they might somehow thread the needle. The sleeper hold is hard to get out of. It blocks the oxygen, and soon the victim can no longer reason.


  37. - Disenchanted D - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    Rauner should be worried. That poll doesn’t account for crossovers, who will be significant because with Quinn so weak, many traditional Dems will pull Republican ballots to stop him.


  38. - MrGrassroots - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 11:27 am:

    The Cubs have as good a chance to win the World Series next year as Dan Rutherford has of winning the Republican primary.


  39. - Veritas - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 11:36 am:

    [IP address 166.147.104.152 has been banned for life for highjacking screen names.]


  40. - Governor Danger - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 11:39 am:

    Dan Rutherford ought to consider dropping out now and running as a third party candidate. There is still time to then air out the Republican primary.


  41. - A guy... - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 11:42 am:

    20 points and 20 days. And $20 million if he needs it. I believe Dillard’s 17% is a high water mark for him and he may even poll lower on Election Day. Brady’s peeps are more sticky to him and I believe he’ll get closer to 17 or 18%. The eager beavers are answering the phones to support their guys now (Dillard’s IEA supporters) Many of the rest are tired of all the polls and simply not taking them anymore. Part of manipulating a “random” poll is letting your supporters know “when” it’s coming and encouraging them to take it. Only two kinds of campaigns do polls- well run ones that are confirming the results of everything else they’re doing. And then, lazy ones that don’t have GOTV apparatus out in the field. You decide who fits in each category.


  42. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 12:07 pm:

    ===I believe Dillard’s 17% is a high water mark for him and he may even poll lower on Election Day.===

    Seems as though the “trend” totally refutes it, but being an apologist for Rauner, you have to ignore facts, or in this case, trends.

    Rauner’s negatives are only going to increase, and voters will go, “somewhere”. The only thing the four of them have in common is a lack of field operations. All 4.


  43. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    If you’re in the mid 30’s+ Ina 4way race, you’re in the drivers seat. If you’re in the mid-30’s, up 20 points with less than 3 weeks til Election Day and by far the most funds, you’re in the driver’s with the car started and in gear, while the other three candidates are still looking for their keys


  44. - Whatever - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    I think it’s wishful thinking for candidates like Dillard to rely on Democratic cross-over votes in a Republican primary. That scenario is a myth that keeps being repeated very cycle. Remember Corinne Wood? That strategy helped her finish last in the ‘02 GOP Gov. primary.


  45. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 1:01 pm:

    Adding:

    Plus, there does not seem to be any sort of heated primary race on the Democratic side to keep voters “home” this time around.

    Governor? Senator? Attorney General? Treasurer? Comptroller? Nope.

    There is no make-or-break race on the Dem side that would make me, as a Democratic voter, say “So-and-so really needs my vote”.

    And even if there was a heated Dem primary, the chance to have at least one nominee in November (Dillard) who has not already cut my pension (Quinn and Brady) or threatened to cut it more (Rauner) is a more powerful personal motivator when it comes to my vote as a laborer, educator, state employee, etc.

    Not to mention the vote of their family members, as well.

    For the first time in a long time, we may actually see those legendary “crossover voters” become a reality in a sizable numbers.


  46. - Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    The unions would be stupid not to use their voting muscle to take Rauner out. They are already using their money.

    This year is a completely different animal than any other year. You start taking away and talking about taking away peoples pensions and they will vote accordingly.

    It is possible to see 2 or 3 hundred thousand new members of the Grand Ole come March if the unions flex.

    But don’t worry, Rauner’s a lock.


  47. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 1:28 pm:

    –It is possible to see 2 or 3 hundred thousand new members of the Grand Ole come March if the unions flex.–

    It’s also possible that I could win the next Powerball jackpot. Both have about the same odds of happening.


  48. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 1:31 pm:

    –It is possible to see 2 or 3 hundred thousand new members of the Grand Ole come March if the unions flex.

    But don’t worry, Rauner’s a lock.–

    There were 767,000 votes cast in the 2010 GOP primary. He’s not a lock if there are 200K to 300K new anti-Rauner voters.

    But I’ll believe that when I see it.


  49. - DS Politico - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    Rauner is undoubtedly leading but this race isn’t over. We are ignoring the fact that the union movement will drive up his negatives. He has already peaked and the goal is to peak on Election Day. If the unions continue to get behind Dillard, voters will have an alternative. I have said from the beginning that an attack campaign against Rauner is not enough; they have to present an alternative supporter. For a while that looked like Rutherford, but it is clearly Dillard now. If they financial contribute and put foot soldiers and voters into the race, it will be far different that what others are predicting on Election Day.

    Just as Dillard did for Brady in 2010 when he did not pursue a recount challenge, Brady needs to drop and endorse now. The trend is in the favor of Dillard. His support has increased in the last 3 polls while the others have dropped. If Brady will not drop out on his own, it will take Republican leaders to convince him. If elected officials are serious about stopping Rauner, they will have to get off the fence and endorse.

    This race is far from over. It will be interesting to see how it will play out.


  50. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 1:51 pm:

    –If Brady will not drop out on his own, it will take Republican leaders to convince him. –

    Who would those leaders be, and why do you presume they don’t want Rauner? The GOP “leaders” who write checks are certainly all-in for Rauner.

    Meanwhile, the Rauner campaign reported another $177K yesterday, including $150K from a William Blair bigfoot.

    The day before, Rauner put in another $1.3 million of his own cash.


  51. - DS Politico - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    -wordslinger-

    The big donors are all in for Rauner, but it seems that very few state legislators have went in and endorsed him. Rauner has openly stated that he will create a fund to back specific legislators that support his cause. I doubt anyone in the Republican Party is open to Rauner controlling the General Assembly through his money as well. He would hold the legislature hostage when he doesn’t get his way.

    If state legislators and county officials don’t go all in for Dillard now, Rauner will be king. And they will answer to him.


  52. - Samurai - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 2:44 pm:

    Rauner has said he will spend whatever it takes to win this. That is no lie. A path to victory for Dillard is that Rauner has reached the point of diminishing returns for his big buck ad buy; voters have now been presented with enough opposition information to independently look beyond the Carhartt and slogans; And, the Rauner spending orgy actually begins to repulse voters.


  53. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 2:47 pm:

    –The big donors are all in for Rauner, but it seems that very few state legislators have went in and endorsed him.–

    I’m trying to imagine a scenario where state legislator endorsements are meaningful when a guy is communicating directly to voters all day long through the telly.

    Can’t do it.

    And if any of those legislators turn down a Rauner check, let me know.


  54. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 2:56 pm:

    –And, the Rauner spending orgy actually begins to repulse voters.–

    Meh, he’ll have tons of money for negative spots where he isn’t even in the picture.

    Blago used dirty money to make JBT look like a corrupt ogre. It was profoundly dishonest and despicable, but it worked.

    Rauner ain’t Blair Hull, or McKenna, or Gidwitz, or Al Hofeld. He’s got some game in retail politics.

    But from my observation, he has a thin-skin. And if he keeps ducking the working press, someone’s going to take a big poke at him that could set him off.


  55. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 3:19 pm:

    Brady and Rutherford are not dropping out.

    A Topinka endorsement is Dillard’s best hope for a quick boost, but he kinda blew that when he decided to hop in bed with the anti-choice, anti-equality wing of the GOP.


  56. - anon - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 3:33 pm:

    == Rauner will never ever win the general.==

    That’s wishful thinking. Quinn is one of the least popular governors in the nation, and he is facing a scandal that could turn into a serious problem. Rauner can run as a social moderate (pro-choice and no position on gay marriage), and will outspend Quinn big time. IMO, it is foolish to count Rauner a loser in November.


  57. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 3:36 pm:

    –no position on gay marriage–

    That makes you a moderate? C’mon man, that just shows you have no convictions.


  58. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 3:55 pm:

    To Brady, Dillard, and Rauner;

    The polling is real, that is where it all stands. The reality for those 3 is that to win, it appears the mechanism is not on place for those 3 to get identified pluses, as a statewide, coordinated effort, to the polls to understand where their votes are, and maximizing the impact of voter contact.

    Example? If I am on a “Call me, Maybe?” List for Bruce Rauner, they are wasting resources on voters like me, and as education continues, a Rauner GOTV, of dragging all GOP voters out helps Bruce is not good with that education coming in.

    For Dillard or Brady, calling GOP voters disenfranchised will remind them of Bruce Rauner, thus activating a reverse backlash.

    GOTV is like studying for exams; pulling out relevant facts to answer the question. If you don’t know how a voter is going to vote, dragging them TO vote defeats the while purpose and exercise. The three left, are doing nothing to maximize impact of GOTV, and leaving it up to “odds” and “fate” getting the right voters to make the ingredients of a properly baked cake.

    Dan Rutherford is a Spoiler now, not worthy of discussion as viable, do in large part to the “Friday Fiasco” and every single step thereafter. Treasurer Rutherford is a Spoiler, do no chance in my discussion of reality and winning.


  59. - MrJM - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 4:02 pm:

    If he plays his cards right and stays above the fray, that Undecided guy could topple Rauner.

    – MrJM


  60. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 4:15 pm:

    === no position on gay marriage ===

    iirc, Edgar played it much the same way on abortion for years. “That’s already the law of the land” “I cannot overturn the court’s rulings” etc.

    He turned out to be a pretty popular governor despite ducking that nation’s . In fact, he still is.


  61. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    –Edgar played it much the same way on abortion for years–

    As governor, Jim Edgar vetoed bills that would have cut off public aid funding for abortions for poor women. So did Big Jim.

    –”Abortion is a very private and emotionally charged issue,” Edgar wrote. “It is not a decision that should be dictated by whether or not (a woman) can afford to pay.”–

    That ain’t calling for a referendum, daddio. That’s muscle pushing a big, fat “no.”

    For crying out loud, don’t compare a phony like Rauner to Jim Edgar.

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1998-08-12/news/9808120200_1_abortion-bill-poor-women-abortion-opponents


  62. - Norseman - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 4:44 pm:

    I’m rooting for Mr. Undecided. I think Willy would easily beat him and Quinn.

    *** Oswego Willy for Governor - he’s better at hunting Raunerbots than Tom Selleck was in rousting rowdy robots in Runaway. ***


  63. - Samurai - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 4:44 pm:

    ==For crying out loud, don’t compare a phony like Rauner to Jim Edgar==

    Amen


  64. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 4:49 pm:

    Yes, - wordslinger - Yes!

    - Norseman -, I like those odds too, my friend. With you running the Crew ..,


  65. - Jechislo - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 5:28 pm:

    All I can say is look at Donerail, the winner of the 1913 Kentucky Derby. One hell of a long shot.

    Rauner’s negatives are growing, growing, growing. Rutherford is toast. The race is between Dillard and Brady. My guess is Brady in another squeaker. Brady is the Donerail of this race.


  66. - T.J. - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 6:47 pm:

    Hooray! Rauner suddenly doesn’t look so bad.

    Just as Dillard did for Brady in 2010 when he did not pursue a recount challenge, Brady needs to drop and endorse now. The trend is in the favor of Dillard.

    That plan would be plausible if Dillard hadn’t flipped Brady and Rutherford the bird at every possible opportunity.


  67. - Sweet Dreams - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 8:19 pm:

    Fact, most dems are going to stay with their party. They may pull a repubs ticket in the primary to help influence who takes on Quinn but that my friends will be a very calculated move.
    So I wouldn’t count on many crossover votes for Dillard.


  68. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:26 pm:

    Probably most of the Rutherforites will fall to the more moderate Dillard, who, if the last minute TV Ads he’s reportedly going to air prove effective, and with the big Teachers’ Union backing him up as their GOPer, at least, of choice…and IF he can somehow grab even just a respectable chunk of that Quarter-Size group of Undecideds still out there, who knows? He MIGHT just be able to make the race to make Brucie sweat some, closer than many of us might have surmised…! Stranger things have happened in POLitics before, THAT’s for sure.

    And, yet, even so, my gut still tells me that in the end Kirk’ll still have to settle, (and agonizingly so with this, his 2nd shot at the Gold in these Gubernatorial “Games”), with the Silver, or even Bronze, if BB finds a way to surge by stirring up some last minute Downstate support…


  69. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:27 pm:

    That was meant to read above, “…Rutherfordites…!”


  70. - Bobo - Wednesday, Feb 26, 14 @ 9:54 pm:

    Sometimes I think too much into these things but anyway…here goes.

    Dillard may actually need Brady to be viable in this race. If the unions do organize a crossover and it seems to be effective, Rauner will naturally counter with usurping the party type charges against Dillard. This will certainly be effective on regular GOP undecided. Dillard will need those votes to go somewhere else other than Rauner and Rutherford is irrelevant. It would be quite ironic if Rauner starts asking Brady to get out of the race.

    And now back to the asylum.


  71. - Strobby - Thursday, Feb 27, 14 @ 8:25 am:

    Why would anybody spend 5 million dollars of his own money to get a job that pays about $150,000 a year. Maybe to get in and pass tax breaks for all the businesses he owns ??


  72. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 27, 14 @ 8:29 am:

    ===Why would anybody spend 5 million dollars of his own money to get a job that pays about $150,000 a year?===

    To control a budget in excess of $34 Billion…

    It not the “Pay”, but what monies the job controls, like a “no-pay” school board position; lots of money and jobs in a school district.


  73. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Feb 27, 14 @ 9:00 am:

    ===to get a job that pays about $150,000 a year?===

    He’s not taking a paycheck, he says.


  74. - wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 27, 14 @ 9:27 am:

    ===to get a job that pays about $150,000 a year?===

    Power, ego. Pretty big drivers for those go for the big prize, no matter who they are or how much money they have.


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