New poll: Rauner still way ahead
Wednesday, Mar 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a We Ask America tracking poll of 1,262 likely GOP primary voters, with the firm’s Feb. 25th tracker numbers in parentheses…
Bill Brady 12% (13)
Kirk Dillard 14.5% (17)
Bruce Rauner 40% (36)
Dan Rutherford 8% (7.5)
Undecided 26% (27)
* From the pollster…
As the results show, Bruce Rauner continues to dominate the others by a wide margin. With only two weeks to go, it will be extraordinarily difficult for any contender to close the gap. Absent a Richter-scale scandal or some kind of proof of certain unions’ claim that they can talk their members into pulling GOP ballots for Dillard (more on that tomorrow), Mr. Rauner’s lead should hold.
We believe that the Fat Lady is clearing her voice.
* Trendlines since last May…
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:26 am:
Still got to finish.
I totally believe the numbers. Absolutely. If Rauner can’t be impactful by voting his “support”, it makes Rauner’s chances … weaker… but not fatal.
The negatives will carry over for Rauner, and Rauner will not be at 10% or even 20% negatives against Quinn. This might be the “best” Rauner will look to the electorate the rest of the campaign season.
Rutherford - you are losing more “Goodwill” by staying in the race. That is real. You drop out and “…the bad guys win”. Dan, staying in, they are winning already, you are just ensuring the result. You are not a factor, you are the distraction, you are the lever and wedge making Rauner more and more likely the nominee.
- G'Kar - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:29 am:
Was mid-November when Rauner started his media saturation?
- Generation X - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:29 am:
Using these results with the turnout in the 2010 primary, Dillard would need roughly 260,000 cross over votes
- DuPage Moderate - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:35 am:
It’s over…Rauner by a landslide.
He will beat Quinn as well.
- Mittuns - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:36 am:
Is there a source for last night’s debate?
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:36 am:
Air superiority.
You get what you deserve. In 2006, nearly half of Illinois voters, 1.7 million of them, voted for Blago for a second term, despite the fact that he was obviously a lazy, incompetent, dirty crook.
But he owned the airwaves, thanks to the big money boys. And that’s all that mattered.
- Big Muddy - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:41 am:
Wonder if the crossover voters, whatever the number, help Cross, Sullivan and Sandack?
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:42 am:
Oh please.
Read the thing!
It is over. Stop the fantasies. The Three Veteran Losers can’t even top Undecided!
We all know what happens to 10% of Brady’s support on an election day - so it will be:
Rauner
Dillard
Rutherford
Brady
The newest candidate takes it. The Illinois GOP decides it is time for a candidate that hasn’t already lost.
Lets not pretend any other outcome, please. The sooner you accept this - the clearer you will be regarding the General.
It is the evil Rauner vs. the guy who can’t find $50,000,000 he gave away right before Election Day 2010.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:44 am:
Remember - this is Illinois - the Land of Gubernatorial Felons
- Samurai - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:51 am:
Rutherford. Get out and go scuba diving. Play with a Manatee.
- Under Further Review - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 9:55 am:
Everything looks favorable for Rauner, but with crossover voting, I wonder. IEA is making calls for Dillard.
Dan Rutherford may impact the outcome by his refusal to accept the facts that is candidacy is doomed.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:11 am:
If the Democrats want one of these guys to win the nomination, then lose to Quinn - they would be crossing over to vote for Brady. He proved he couldn’t beat even the weakest Democrat in the biggest GOP landslide in a generation.
The other candidates can beat Quinn, who will be spending his campaign time boring us to death.
- He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:11 am:
Once again the GOP shoots themselves in the foot. They look like the Dems in the 80s.
- Under Further Review - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:16 am:
Sometimes candidates who might be described as “damaged goods” or “retreads” wind up being nominated and elected without the voters having a great deal of enthusiasm. Nobody much cares for “rerun candidates,” but Pat Quinn is still on the scene years after his “best if used by” date expired. It is not a pattern restricted to Illinois — check out candidates in Iowa or Minnesota (Branstaad and Dayton) who never seem to go away.
- Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:22 am:
If the Fat Lady is not clearing her voice, Bruce will go buy the Opera House.
Game Over.
- anonymoose - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:28 am:
Not that it makes any difference, but the geek in me wonders why the 25-34 age group (1) is so decided compared to other age groups and (2) so decided for Rauner? It was similar in the last WAA poll.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:43 am:
The Dems aren’t that scared of Rauner. There won’t be much cross over.
This is pretty much over, Rauner just needs to finish the job. Make sure his poll numbers turn into votes, don’t say anything stupid, and keep Brady/Dillard/Rutherford all in the race.
I guess Dillard’s “path” to victory is capture what remains of Rutherford’s support, snag a ton of undecided, and hope that Rauner’s support isn’t all that strong and the weather keeps doing what it’s been doing on the 18th to keep them home.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:46 am:
Brady folks are sticky Vanilla Man. I predict: Rauner, Brady, Dillard, Rutherford. With the narrowest gap between Brady and Dillard; maybe less than a couple hundred votes.
- Downstater - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:53 am:
When the fat lady sings, Quinn will be hearing the song of Cha-ching, the sound of $50 million dollars in campaign ads pointing out all of Quinn’s problem.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:59 am:
The only interesting question at this point is turnout.
In 2010, in a hot GOP primary, 767,000 votes were cast.
There were 916,000 votes cast in a hot Dem primary.
There’s nothing going on this year in the Dem primary. Do all those Dem votes stay home on March 18? How many will pull a GOP ballot?
No idea. But at this point, it’s the only variable of interest.
- Frosty-The Snowman - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 11:04 am:
I have been hearing union rank & file guys saying that they really like Rauner’s political ads. They say that they can’t stomach voting for Quinn again. They said that if Lisa Madigan had run for governor they would have given her their votes and hearts. Rauner is going to be “The Man”. Here is hoping Rauner doesn’t eventually make it into a “Saturday Night Live” skit down the road like our other Illinois governors like Rod and George managed to.
- Under Further Review - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 11:32 am:
The IEA, IFT and AFSCME are all trying to redirect normally Democratic primary voters into the Republican primary to stop Rauner.
Rutherford is out of touch with reality. Dillard is making a late push again, but is it possible for him to pull it out? He is a real long shot, but the only one with a prayer. I do not see Brady posting numbers to equal his 2010 totals.
Illinois permits nominees and candidates to win with pluralities rather than majorities. I suspect that Rauner may not top 50.1% despite his millions, but a majority is not needed.
- Pensioner - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 11:43 am:
I, as a Dem, will be pulling a repub ballot and vote for Dillard. Polls don’t show that number.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 11:50 am:
===Polls don’t show that number. ===
Actually, I did just such a poll for subscribers this week.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 12:01 pm:
@Further Review:
If true, that is foolhardy.
Better luck convincing Independents to vote in the GOP primary than Democrats.
Smarter to turn that energy toward convincing Republican public servants to reach out to their family and friends and convince them to support Dillard.
- AnonymousOne - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 12:08 pm:
I’m not sure I get it. Can someone please explain WHY they’d vote for Rauner. Hopefully for a better reason than they like his ads.
- Under Further Review - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 12:53 pm:
@Yellow Dog:
Scratch an “Independent” and you will usually find a Democrat or leans Democrat voter.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 1:08 pm:
===Scratch an “Independent” and you will usually find a Democrat or leans Democrat voter. ===
Um, no. Where do you think all those voters who stopped self identifying as Republicans went?
- Roadiepig - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 1:39 pm:
- Under Further Review - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 12:53 pm:
@Yellow Dog:
Scratch an “Independent” and you will usually find a Democrat or leans Democrat voter.
I, for one, once described myself as a republican . I now call myself a independent, and my voting history(if you could see who I have voted for in the past 3-4 generals) would show you that . Contrary to what most of the blowhard am radio talking heads say, being a moderate does not make you stupid. It means you actually study issues and vote on each one on its own merits, not just voting the way a political party tells you to.
And yes, I will be pulling a Republican ballot this time around. For Dillard, not the Baron. It would have been for Rutherford, but you know…
- Downstate - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 1:43 pm:
-AnonymousOne at 12:08
I’ll bite. Our state finances are in a shambles. Quinn and his cronies have increased income taxes without any appreciable difference in our state deficit.
They’ve refused to reform a workers comp program that is driving new business opportunity from the state.
Even Quinn’s “feel good” efforts of trying to curb urban violence - ended up being a financial morass in which $50 million of taxpayer money was wasted, and a majority simply unaccounted for.
Nothing defines Quinn’s leadership as much as his effort to deal with the pension morass. What do most people recognize as his contribution to the process? Squeezie! The Pension Snake.
After 12 years of Democrats at the helm, I’m ready for something else.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:06 pm:
===Quinn and his cronies have increased income taxes without any appreciable difference in our state deficit.===
Don’t be deliberately stupid.
You know, or should know, that the state deficit was huge before the tax increase due to one thing: Failure to make the pension payments.
That’s what the tax hike did. It make the pension payments with a bit of extra cash to help gradually lower the mountain of overdue bills.
- Downstate - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:25 pm:
Rich,
Poor word smithing on my part. I should have said that the promises of what the tax increase would mean for the state were not delivered.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:28 pm:
What is going on?
Indies have left both parties, and Illinois has had mor GOP voters leave its ranks, so do the math. That is why finding a moderate middle, with conservative Dems who became Indies too, and add the moderate Repubs who ID as Indies bake the cake.
- Downstate - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:37 pm:
OW at 2:28
With all sincerity, I think the polar elements of both parties feel like they have lost ground. As a result they’ve both become more entrenched.
Liberals feel like the gun control issue has been completely lost.
Conservatives feel like they’ve lost the battle on family issues.
I’m only using these issues illustratively.
But because each side feels like they’ve lost so much already, as a result, the idea of “compromise” is anathema to both sides.
I don’t know where it ends. Frankly, I wish we could put a hold on dealing with social issues (gun control, abortion, etc.) and focus on fiscal issues solely. I think there are creative ways to tackle problems like the rampant growth of some entitlement programs - while creating economic opportunity.
Sadly, the pension reform efforts this year are an indication of how hard any type of compromise on any issue will ever be to achieve.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:55 pm:
=== I think the polar elements of both parties feel like they have lost ground.===
Yes, and that is why Indies are at such a large number than what they were at before. However, I recall the ILGOP shrinking quicker than the ILDems, and it appears that the middle is where the battle is best fought.
The ILGOP at times seems content, today to be more right and Right, while the Dems would rather herd cats of different stripes, then have one pedigree.
- IL Champ - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:20 pm:
I’m curious to see some numbers of how likely individuals will switch or how hard of a supporter they are for any candidate. Maybe a push poll is in order to see if anyone changes there mind about Rauner if they find out more information about his perceived nursing home scandal.
- Louis Howe - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:27 pm:
Rutherford should consider the effect on his political future by losing big in this race. The only thing dumber than his sexcapade scandal is staying in a primary where he’ll finish last with single digit support. Cut a deal with Dillard and get out!!!
- Mokenavince - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:40 pm:
Undecided looks like the only one who can catch Rauner. Will he or she be a write in?
- JImbo - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:53 pm:
My girlfriend and I will be pulling R ballots, for Dillard. We are most certainly not republicans
- Rod - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:59 pm:
Since some on of this blog are predicting lucky Pat’s demise, I would be interested in how many actual votes Rauner gets in the primary. Since there is no real opposition to Quinn that primary turn out tells us nothing really.
In the last Republican primary for governor there were 767,485 votes cast, so for Rauner to break even for the core turn out at 40% of the vote he would need get about 306,994 votes in this primary. If interest among the Republican faithful in Rauner is high we should see him get more than 306,000 votes, if not less I would suspect.
The actual turn out in this Republican primary will tell us a lot about Rauner’s actual ability to draw people to the polls. I am still sticking with lucky Pat.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:14 pm:
–I am still sticking with lucky Pat.–
I don’t buy the “Lucky Pat” stuff. He’s a gut-puncher who ain’t afraid to mix it up.
He beat a very strong candidate in Hynes. He beat Brady in a historic GOP year.
Lisa and Daley bowed out because they were scared to lose.
One thing about Quinn, he ain’t afraid to lose. He’s always got a puncher’s chance.
- Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 7:51 pm:
==the Fat Lady is clearing her voice==
…and standing next to the steps at the floor of the Stage about to head up and mosey over to the Microphone, just waiting for her. And the Audience, too, is in that awkward moment, looking at her/waiting for her to just make that FINAL move up, so that they, too, will rise from their seats for her Performance (or is it heading over TO their seats to LISTEN to her Song)…?
Either way, unless there’s some totally UNexpected stumble on her part up to that Stage, either way, it works the same, and the final result for this GOP Gathering will BE the same…and, be clear, she will be–in fact–singing one of the “BARON’s” favorite tunes, like, say, oh, maybe “One Little Victory,” by RUSH…?!
- Bobo - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 8:13 pm:
If the unions want to, they will flip their membership voting overnight. These polls don’t mean squat, in my opinion, and Rauner should be worried.
Here is my reasoning.
There is no Democratic Primary to speak of…so no one really cares about that primary.
The unions are mad at Quinn and would like to have a choice to send the Governor a message.
If they are willing to spend their money they might as well use their real power which is votes.
If they do decide to pull the switch, they will do so a couple of days before the 18th to keep Rauner from calling it out. (and yes, I know all about early voting)
BTW, it would be interesting to see how many GOP primary ballots are being requested in Chicago.
- T.J. - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 11:15 pm:
We all know what happens to 10% of Brady’s support on an election day - so it will be:
That’s true for a general election, but he didn’t win the last primary by losing 10% of his support on Election Day.
I’ll hand it to Capitol Fax: recent threads have made me feel better about both Quinn and Rauner. I never saw that coming.
- Mason born - Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 8:00 am:
One thing about crossover i think people are missing. Yes there is nothing on the DEM gov race to attract voters. But you have a miriad of small local elections that will be decided. For instance while most of us would overlook a county sheriff race in my county there is no R on the ballot and two dems in the primary. If you think the current Sheriff is a D-bag (he is) then your only chance to get rid of him is the primary. I am actually curious to see what votes Hardiman gets. I know he has no money to speak off. But i know my in-laws are pulling dem ballots to vote out the sheriff (challenger is related) and are going to check the anyone but pat Quinn box.