Another surge?
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jim Oberweis surged nine points in 2006, but still lost the GOP governor’s race to Judy Baar Topinka. Bill Brady surged eight points to take first pace in the 2010 primary. Another surge is apparently happening now, according to the Chicago Tribune’s latest poll…
Rauner had 36 percent support — down 4 percentage points from a month ago amid a blitz of labor union-backed TV ads attacking his business dealings as a venture capitalist.
Dillard had 23 percent, doubling his support since last month, especially among Downstate voters. The veteran state lawmaker gained while state Sen. Bill Brady and Treasurer Dan Rutherford lost support in recent weeks. Brady was at 18 percent, down from 20 percent in early February. Rutherford, who was hit with a sexual harassment lawsuit by a former employee last month, was at 9 percent — a 4-percentage-point drop from the last poll. […]
There’s still the potential for some shifting in the contest: 13 percent of those polled said they were undecided. The survey of 600 registered voters likely to cast a ballot in the Republican primary was conducted March 1-5 through live interviews by land line and cellphone. It has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. […]
Downstate, however, Rauner saw his support fall from 35 percent to 30 percent, while Dillard’s increased from 6 percent to 21 percent. Dillard now stands tied among Downstate voters with Brady, the unsuccessful 2010 nominee from Bloomington who won the primary four years ago off his showing in the 96 counties outside the city and suburbs.
[…]
The ads may have driven up unfavorable views of Rauner. While the percentage of voters who have a favorable view of Rauner remained largely the same at 47 percent, the percentage who hold an unfavorable view rose from 10 percent in early February to 21 percent in the new poll.
Expect a Dillard/Obama TV ad or some such thing from Bruce Rauner’s campaign in 3… 2… 1…
- 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:28 pm:
===Expect a Dillard/Obama TV ad or some such thing from Bruce Rauner’s campaign in 3… 2… 1…===
Which will almost certainly result in a surge for Brady. Sheesh, why can’t these guys figure it out? Rauner can’t be beat in a four-way race.
- phocion - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:30 pm:
One would expect the anti-Rauner ads to have some effect. Still a hill for Dillard to climb with 11 days left. This could get interesting, though.
- DuPage - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:35 pm:
If Brady and Rutherford dropped out and threw their support to Dillard, then it might be close.
I don’t expect that to happen.
- OneMan - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:36 pm:
Kind of surprised the hits have only cost Bruce 4 points.
- train111 - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:37 pm:
“expect a Dillard/Obama TV ad of some such thing from Bruce Rauner’s campaign in 3…2…1…===”
Expext another 1 to 1.5 million dollar check from Bruce Rauner cut to his campaign in 3…2…1..
- Cincinnatus - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:39 pm:
Poll taken before Dillard ads started running…
- BR - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:40 pm:
This poll was before the Dillard tv ads went up on the air. Give them time to play and I see an even bigger surge for Dillard.
- anonymoose - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:44 pm:
Not saying the polls today are wrong, I just simply think the race will be tighter.
My last observations on the debate last night. No Rauner. Empty podium. Not one single Rauner sign. Not one single Rauner campaign button spotted. And God bless Roger Sweet, I know buttons and signs do not vote, people vote…..but still Rauner crew, are you that cocky and sure you have this thing in the bag? Polls don’t vote. People do.
There were commercial breaks. The candidates worked the crowd during breaks.
Mr. Dillard seemed to press the flesh the least. He stayed on stage a bit more and a couple of times did this odd quirky jiggle to the background music.
Mr. Brady and Mr. Rutherford both seemed more engaged. Taking pictures with college students, shaking hands. Don’t know about you - things I expect from the next Governor of the State of Illinois. Show the heck up and meet some people. Nice job Mr. Brady and Mr. Rutherford. Maybe the polls do not show results, but I have to think in my heart you are doing the right things that should be done to win an election. And to Mr. Rutherford, still plugging away even with an enormous cloud over head - I sure wish that cloud were not there.
- Formerly Known As... - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:44 pm:
There sure were an awful lot of undecideds in the last poll…
If a surge comes from anywhere, it seems more likely to come from undecideds who Rauner has not yet closed the deal with than from crossover voters.
One of those events playing out would be helpful to Dillard. A combination of both those events #could put him over the top.
This just might shape up to make for an interesting finish.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:47 pm:
Gotta finish… GOTV.
The Rauner, um, response, will be “Proportional plus infinity”
“Whatever it takes” was the response to Marin’s question on personal spending. I believe it. I expect it. Here it comes…
- DS Politico - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:50 pm:
If Brady and Rutherford dropped out, I’d expect Dillard to be the front runner. With his ads up, this is a big deal in the shift. With a strong union ground game, Dillard is the Republicans best chance.
- W - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:52 pm:
It’s pretty simple. Downstate Democratic public employees won’t vote for Rauner in the general election. They will vote for Dillard. Downstate voters are figuring out that Dillard is their only chance to beat Quinn.
Democratic public employees are voting for Dillard in the Republican primary to make sure they have an alternative to Quinn they can stomach in November. But how many?
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:54 pm:
Seems weird for the guy who dumped tons of money on Emanuel and Daley to be going after longstanding Republicans for their relationships with Democrats.
Somehow I suspect if Rauner’s attacks on his GOP rivals are predictable, it will blunt the message that Rauner is different and going to “clean up” Springfield.
I have some ideas about how to help Rauner, but I don’t want to help him.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:57 pm:
“Dan, Kirk here. Do you really want to get even with Rauner? You talk Brady into dropping from the race and endorsing me… Or course, you’ll have to drop from the race too. If the shoe was on the other foot, I’d do it for you. Please….”
- Not a Donkey Man - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:01 pm:
Well said Carl Nyberg.
- wordslinger - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:02 pm:
The needle moved, for sure.
And the Obama/Dillard spot is absolutely coming, in a big way Downstate.
Is there a Dillard sugar daddy out there for a Rahm/Daley/Bruce spot?
- lake county democrat - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:03 pm:
Public service workers have determined there can’t be a choice on the most important issue facing the state (spare me the argument that Quinn supported the wet noodle, possibly built-to-fail “pension reform” bill and Dillard opposed it). We’ll see if they have the stroke to pull it off.
- John A Logan - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:04 pm:
This Dillard surge will be the high water mark for his campaign. Once the Obama Ad gets up and running he will fade. Rauner by 15 points.
- IbendahlLuvsJBT - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:20 pm:
This may Fundamentally Transform the campaign.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:22 pm:
Oh LOOK!
One of the political corpses looks like it is breathing!
Maybe we won’t have to include an outsider into our little club of winners after all!
Hey, rich guys and gals - just give us the millions - we know how to lose these elections!
- MrJM - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:26 pm:
Dead cat bounce.
– MrJM
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:30 pm:
A call from Dillard won’t help.
A call from conservative backers of dillard pledging to support Brady for US Senate and a call from the unions pledging Dan Rutherford a graceful out might.
But Dillard needs an strategy that doesnt depend on luck or pixie dust. He has to get Rauner down to 32 points to win. that means a third party really going after Rauner as a LIBERAL And forget about Rahm Emanuel, tell all of those downstate Republican men how Rauner helped re-elect Mayor Daley.
- Adam Smith - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:31 pm:
One Man is right…
A very big media buy from the unions with a very hard-edged attack (Rauner kills old people) and he only loses 4 points.
That is the natural bleed you’d expect as the other candidates started ramping up their limited resources. The attacks are having some effect but, even with the new Trib numbers, it’s hard to see the gap closing all the way.
- Arthur Andersen - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:37 pm:
word, there’s one. Kirk used to be his chief of staff in case you didn’t know. He just can’t cut loose of his campaign fund 15 years after leaving office.
- Anon - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:47 pm:
This is reminiscent of the late Santorum surge back in the 2012 presidential race. Interesting that there is such similarity between Rauner and Romney. Republicans then were looking to Romney alternatives, just like republicans are now. Therefore, Dillard’s 2014 surge is to Rauner what Santorum’s 2008 surge was to Romney.
- Smoggie - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:57 pm:
There is no way Dillard can catch Rauner. The gap is too big, the money is too late, and ultimately Rauner’s outsider message is better for this year than Dillard’s “I was in charge when things were good” message.
All the ads are going to do is to damage Rauner for November.
- IbendahlLuvsJBT - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 1:58 pm:
Don’t insult Romney by comparing him to Bruce “Fundamentally Vague” Rauner.
- Old Shepherd - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 2:10 pm:
At this point a “drop out” by any candidate is practically useless. The ballots are already printed. If someone “drops out”, their name will still appear, and their core supporters will still vote for them.
- Could be - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 2:13 pm:
I think most people heard about Dillard and Obama already they haven’t heard much about Rauner and Rahm. If they haven’t picked Rauner after all the positive ad’s, there not going to. That leave’s the voters to decide with what’s left seems their moving to Dillard.
- Jeanne Dough - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 2:14 pm:
“Democratic public employees are voting for Dillard in the Republican primary to make sure they have an alternative to Quinn they can stomach in November. But how many?”
Four in my immediate family, and anyone else I can influence in the next eleven days. We have had two calls from IRTA members encouraging a vote for Dillard in the primary, although I’m not sure if this is an organized effort.
- Moderate Repub - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 2:39 pm:
- Cincinnatus - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 12:39 pm:
“Poll taken before Dillard ads started running”…
Yeah but with what Dillard has bought on cable the message may resonate by the General election.
More interesting to me is this poll was taken about the same time as the We Ask America poll - with VERY different results.
- Anonymous - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 3:25 pm:
I wonder if having two on a ticket is starting to influence the decision of canidates to drop out when you know you have a long hill to climb. The decision doesn’t only impact your future, but also your running mate.
- wordslinger - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 3:30 pm:
AA, I savvy.
But it would probably have been better if Edgar or Big Jim would have asked some folks to write some checks in the 25K range about 18 months ago.
YDD, what does this mean?
–A call from conservative backers of dillard pledging to support Brady for US Senate and a call from the unions pledging Dan Rutherford a graceful out might.–
How would that work, at this stage?
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 3:32 pm:
“Slip and Sue”, “Dave Kim, and “8 Precinct”… you think they are/were impact players before, and even after.
“Slip and Sue”, if she wins in November will be Jason Plummer with a law degree. “Slip and Sue” is a perfect microcosm of “Bruce Rauner” and his understanding of what it means to run the 5th largest state on America, and how “Bruce” cares about Illinois, heaven forbid something happens.
- PublicServant - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 3:36 pm:
===“Democratic public employees are voting for Dillard in the Republican primary to make sure they have an alternative to Quinn they can stomach in November.===
5 in this Dem household too Jeanne…and the polls don’t reflect that crossover since “likely Republican voters” they’ll never admit to some phone hack.
- wordslinger - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 3:44 pm:
–I wonder if having two on a ticket is starting to influence the decision of canidates to drop out when you know you have a long hill to climb–
Meh, those guys are on the milk carton, anyway. They’re just Scott Cohen insurance.
What’s the incentive to drop out?
- Intrigued GOP Voter - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 3:46 pm:
This GOP primary for governor is far from over. Rauner has nowhere to go but down. Now that Republicans are learning about the real Bruce Rauner, they’re not so sure. From the We Ask America poll earlier this week to this Tribune poll, a 14-point swing in Dillard’s favor versus Rauner. After pouring in millions, Rauner has to be sweating.
- Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 4:01 pm:
Well, yes, Miracles do happen (we’ll never forget that 1980 U.S. Men’s Hockey Team with those Gold Medals, still to my Wonderment, hangin’ around their young, rugged necks)! And I’ve actually given Kirk some pats on the back for giving it the best shot (as he sees it) that he CAN now with the time on that ShotClock dwindlin’ down, but to borrow that same Olympics Analogy, once again, despite those intense efforts and a noteworthy “surge,” those GOPers who just can’t get over staring at that Dillard “Dirty Laundry” (e.g. Pro-Obama Commercial, etc.), will prevent him from making it over that final hurdle in time to overcome the Baron.
I’ve been sayin’ likely Silver Medal for Kirk for quite awhile now, barring some MAjor Gaffe, OR Miracle, that suddenly emerged, with a mere week 1/2 to go–and I’m stickin’ TO that prediction…! Hats off to him for a nice try, though…!
- Whoa! - Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 4:04 pm:
Intrigued GOP is right! 14-point swing toward Dillard is huge! Mark my words, Rauner goin’ down!