* Jim Oberweis surged nine points in 2006, but still lost the GOP governor’s race to Judy Baar Topinka. Bill Brady surged eight points to take first pace in the 2010 primary. Another surge is apparently happening now, according to the Chicago Tribune’s latest poll…
Rauner had 36 percent support — down 4 percentage points from a month ago amid a blitz of labor union-backed TV ads attacking his business dealings as a venture capitalist.
Dillard had 23 percent, doubling his support since last month, especially among Downstate voters. The veteran state lawmaker gained while state Sen. Bill Brady and Treasurer Dan Rutherford lost support in recent weeks. Brady was at 18 percent, down from 20 percent in early February. Rutherford, who was hit with a sexual harassment lawsuit by a former employee last month, was at 9 percent — a 4-percentage-point drop from the last poll. […]
There’s still the potential for some shifting in the contest: 13 percent of those polled said they were undecided. The survey of 600 registered voters likely to cast a ballot in the Republican primary was conducted March 1-5 through live interviews by land line and cellphone. It has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. […]
Downstate, however, Rauner saw his support fall from 35 percent to 30 percent, while Dillard’s increased from 6 percent to 21 percent. Dillard now stands tied among Downstate voters with Brady, the unsuccessful 2010 nominee from Bloomington who won the primary four years ago off his showing in the 96 counties outside the city and suburbs.
The ads may have driven up unfavorable views of Rauner. While the percentage of voters who have a favorable view of Rauner remained largely the same at 47 percent, the percentage who hold an unfavorable view rose from 10 percent in early February to 21 percent in the new poll.
Expect a Dillard/Obama TV ad or some such thing from Bruce Rauner’s campaign in 3… 2… 1…