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Poll: Hardiman at 36 percent

Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014

* Kevin McDermott

A new poll by Strive Strategies shows Quinn with 64 percent of the Democratic vote, to Hardiman’s 36 percent.

In a news release, the polling firm calls that a “solid lead” and presents it as good news for Quinn. It isn’t. Hardiman has no political base, no money, and has received no serious media coverage. It’s unlikely that one-third of Democratic Illinois voters even know who he is, let alone are supporting him.

Which means this is a classic “anyone-but-Quinn” protest vote — from within Quinn’s own party.

I don’t know much about this polling firm, but I’ve been planning my own poll this week. I’ll let you know what happens.

* There are no silver medals in campaigns, but the more support Hardiman gets, the weaker Quinn’s gonna look when the primary is over.

Quinn has always had trouble with female voters, and Hardiman is winning 40 percent of Democratic women.

* Also, We Ask America is planning to release its GOP tracking results at around 8 o’clock tonight. Click here at that time and use this post to comment below.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


38 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    Wow….

    Bet Bill Daley is walking around muttering to himself right now.


  2. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    Maybe Quinn should get arrested for beating Paul Vallas and see if that helps him with female voters.


  3. - Noy Noy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    Wow, think Quinn will regret not knocking him off the ballot when he had the chance?

    Also, how would an “anybody-but-Quinn” without Hardiman’s negatives have done? Above 40%?


  4. - OneMan - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    Hardiman’s negatives

    If 5% of voters know of Hardiman’s negatives I would be shocked.


  5. - Plutocrat03 - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:52 pm:

    Does not matter. A win is a win and the demonization of the Republican will commence.


  6. - Walker - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:57 pm:

    Uh Oh


  7. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:00 pm:

    That is astounding.

    Expected to see Hardiman at 10% - 15%, maybe low 20’s tops.

    For an incumbent governor, serving in office more than 4 years, in a one-party state, who has a clear path to the nomination, has mostly gotten a pass on his shortcomings as and is coming off the biggest “accomplishments” of his career… that is ridiculously terrible.

    Unfortunately for Quinn, whatever programs or initiatives or spending increases he may come up with to try and shore up his flank will be scrutinized endlessly following the VRI debacle.


  8. - anon - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Plenty of time left to shore up the base…just fund another anti-violence program and promise money to aldermanic pals.


  9. - justsayin' - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Strive Strategies? You must be joking. Dennis Cook who? If we are going to talking polling, let’s at least not quote the least credible faux pollsters - otherwise all of us on Capitol Fax might as well open up shop and put a “pollster” sign on our desk in the nearest Starbucks.


  10. - OneMan - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    justsayin’

    Dennis was rather heavily involved out in Kane County for a while in a couple of races..

    I suspect there isn’t anyone doing much poling on that race right now, so you take what you can get.


  11. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:12 pm:

    Who knows how many Dem voters will go in and vote for “someone other than Quinn.”


  12. - Steve Rhodes - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:13 pm:

    From Strive’s website: “Dennis Cook’s activism in the Republican Party runs deep.”


  13. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:13 pm:

    Quinn just needs to win the primary by a vote and move on. A pathetic primary result, like this poll would suggest, is not the worst thing for Quinn. Hopefully it will make Rauner and everyone else underestimate him. Quinn has always relished the underdog role.

    Boy is he going to be an underdog this time!


  14. - Noy Noy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:14 pm:

    Rich - here’s a question for the peanut gallery - what’s the over/under on when the Democratic Primary for Governor is called on Tuesday? 7:01? 7:10? 7:30?


  15. - Big Muddy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:21 pm:

    Short of a major scandal for anyone else running for Gov I don’t know how Brucy could be any better positioned one week out. I guess money can buy you love.


  16. - Nick - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:22 pm:

    Just yesterday I went to my county clerk’s office and voted early. I pulled a Democratic ballot and voted for Hardiman. I don’t expect him to win, nor do I want him to win, but I did want to send a strong message to Quinn. Plus, I didn’t want the stain of pulling a Republican ballot to appear on my “permanent record”. It will be interesting to see how many people there are like me next Tuesday when the results come in.


  17. - Mason born - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    I’ve been wondering for a while how strong Hardiman would turn out. I know quite a few dems who want Quinn out but have local primary races to vote in. None of them know anything about Hardiman but have vowed to vote for anyone but Quinn. I wonder if Quinns primary map won’t look like his last General election map. i hope the advisors to Lisa and Daley are staying out of sight.


  18. - Noy Noy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:26 pm:

    Work with me here.

    Since it’s now obvious that Bruce Rauner will win the Republican Primary, GOP voters should pull Democratic ballots and vote for Hardiman so Quinn gets embarassed.

    Amirite?


  19. - justsayin' - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:31 pm:

    Noy noy I doubt Democrat voters have an interest in helping Rauner look good. LOL. Or maybe they do…he’s Rahm’s buddy.


  20. - Mason born - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:33 pm:

    Noy Noy

    I actually am torn on that one. I am not GOP i’ll pull whatever ballot has the candidates i agree with. I have family on the Dem ballot (county office) but biggest objective is no PQ or BR come January. I’m afraid the BR ship has sailed so a Quinn bloody nose may be the best i can do.


  21. - Dave Fako - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:35 pm:

    There is, and always is, a built in “anti” vote to any incumbent, ranging from very low on popular officials to upwards of a third or more among troubled incumbents (see Blago 2006) even when facing lesser known (or in this particular case virtually unknown) opponents, even even among their own party faithful - see it in polling all the time.

    That being said, some methodological questions about the poll, like the horse race totaling 100% - nobody is undecided? What percentage of the interviews were conducted via cell phone? Etc.


  22. - Jerry - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:40 pm:

    Wow! Nick I did what you did by early voting for Hardiman because I had a choice to pick one plus quinn has battered this state for a very long time. I also don’t ever wanna vote republican because those thugs can’t be trusted and you even see the desperation all over their faces. I hope Hardiman wins because I’ve been researching about him and what he did for cease fire. Good poll.


  23. - kathryn - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:54 pm:

    It’s no wonder Quinn is doing poorly among women voters. He makes a big speech every year about how he supports equal pay for women, but when he had a chance to do it he and his office failed to make it right. Lt. Gov’s office failed to do anything also. Women in Illinois know this.


  24. - Almost in Wisconsin - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:57 pm:

    Strive Strategies/Battleground Polling has done more than 40 surveys over the past year in Illinois and the results almost always track with We Ask America and other more notable pollsters


  25. - Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 5:12 pm:

    I doubt William Daley is kicking himself. He really did not want to govern in trying times.

    It is a really outstanding measure of how awful Quinn is that an also ran is going to capture about 40% of the vote.


  26. - Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 5:20 pm:

    4.21% is a pretty big MOE, not to mention 58% of those polled being female most definitely elevate Tio’s numbers. PQ should grab about 70% or so but all of this is really not a big deal at this point: November is.

    Also, heck, I was still hopin’ what exact % of the Dem. vote Tio garners (and loses with) would become one of your “Questions of the Day” sometime between now and the 18th…!


  27. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 6:12 pm:

    No disagreement Dave. Blago was able to rally the party after dropping 30% to Eisendrath…dramatically outspending Topinka and because the base was sure he was better than alternate: “He may be a bleeping bleep, but he is our Bleep.”

    Quinn was able to bring the base back in 2010 because Brady was so extreme on key issues.

    But if Rauner is the nominee, Quinn is going to have to find a new path. Rauner will not be outspent, nor will he be left hanging over the right edge of the cliff on social issues.


  28. - Matt - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 6:43 pm:

    I can’t wait to see Quinn out of office. Quinn must go because we can’t allow him to ruin the state period. These politicians are for real gambling with our lives and its so sad that others are allowing them


  29. - Downstate - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 6:55 pm:

    Poll released. Still a 20 point lead for rauner over dillard.


  30. - PoolGuy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 7:02 pm:

    wow 46%, looks like the undecideds may not be going to Dillard


  31. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 7:17 pm:

    ==If 5% of voters know of Hardiman’s negatives I would be shocked.==

    If 5% of voters know who he is I would be shocked.


  32. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 7:27 pm:

    @Downstate Pool Guy -

    Undecideds were squeezed out in this one, but it would take an act of god to change the outcome of the GOP primary at this point.

    The bright side for Quinn is it looks like Rauner will finish below 50 percent. I don’t expect Rutherford or Dillard to be rushing to the unity breakfast, so Rauner is going to have some bridge-building to do.

    He will still finish well ahead of where Brady did in 2010, in much better position, with a lot more money and a lot less baggage than Topinka.


  33. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 8:18 pm:

    There ya go.

    Voters want the new guy because they hate the current guys.


  34. - Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:14 pm:

    Well, thanks for posting the latest GOP Poll, too. Looks like no real change here. Dillard in solid position to take Silver as some like myself had concluded as likely a ways back now, and despite his last minute, respectable TV Ad push, will, sadly for him and the (Gov.)Jim Edgar’s of the World touting him to the end, fall short once again, albeit THIS time as the Guy sprinting to the finish trying to catch the dude in FRONT (which, as we all know, was KIRK last time). Difference is that BB CAUGHT him 4 years ago–KIRK’S not gonna be so lucky in THIS desperate sprint, however…!


  35. - Stones - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 7:09 am:

    Hearing Hardiman with that percentage is truly shocking. Especially surprising is is 40% among women considering the allegations about him. Makes me wonder what a more credible candidate such as Lisa Madigan would be polling right now? Clearly, she made a mistake by skipping the race.


  36. - train111 - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 7:20 am:

    I vote pretty consistently Dem. I plan on voting for Tio also. I do want to sen the party a message also.


  37. - Downstate - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 7:44 am:

    YDD at 7:27
    Interesting point on the unity breakfast.
    Not sure Dillard wants to completely alienate himself from his previous donors. I’m guessing if Gidwitz calls, Kirk will make an appearance.


  38. - codeword47 - Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:54 am:

    Interesting, looks like strive was pretty accurate on this one. I don’t know who those guys are and still need to see more from them before I’m sold, but looks like they got this one right.


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