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Question of the day

Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014

* It’s been quite a lousy morning. I wasn’t feeling all that well, and then I finally woke up only to find that my Gmail account “has been disabled due to suspicious activity.” Trying to fix that now.

So, while I do that, how about we do this…

* The Question: Are there any local primary races that you are following? Who’s gonna win?

…Adding… Gmail is finally working. I had a real problem getting my computer to deal with the new password, but that’s fixed now as well. Hopefully, I can return to some sort of normalcy soon. What a lousy day.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


76 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 9:54 am:

    I know a couple of guys at google if you need me to reach out.

    Local race, congressional 11th, think Bert Miller is going to get it done


  2. - Liberty First - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    The FCC must be after you. :)


  3. - Downstater - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    NSA taping your phone


  4. - Soccermom - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    Do you have two-step authorization? It can be kind of a pain, but I think it’s worthwhile.


  5. - Smoggie - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 9:59 am:

    Christian Mitchell and the candidate from the teachers’ union.

    Getting a ton of mail.
    Christian’s stuff is covering a wide range of topics.
    The teachers’ union candidate is covering only pensions.

    My neighbors don’t seem to care much about the race, so it looks like very low turnout.

    I suspect Christian is going to win since he’s got some very good people helping him out.


  6. - Just Observing - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago (Cook County). The winners will be Cynthia Santos, Frank Avila, and Brendan Houlihan.


  7. - I See You - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    The 115th State Rep District Democratic primary for Bost’s old seat between Bill Kilquist and Tony Mayville. Despite terrible poll numbers, fundraising, and being placed on leave from his state job, Mayville continues to fight. His attacks against his Madigan/DPI-backed opponent Kilquist as being backed by “Chicago and Madigan” could have appeal in this Southern IL district if Mayville had cash to get that word out–which he does not. On the other hand, Madigan seems to be bent on making an example of Mayville down there. This race will still be interesting to watch, though.


  8. - The NKI - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Looking forward to see who wins the Pihos/Breen - Dennis/Nybo races….


  9. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    This is a ho-hum primary for me. Just a couple of way down ballot county-wides in down state counties. No clue who will win. It will come down to whoever gets more relatives and friends to drag themselves to the polls (assuming they even vote for the person, and we all know sometimes that goes the opposite of the way the candidate thinks it will).


  10. - I'm New Here - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:08 am:

    Berrios v. Guzzardi. Re-match of their 2012 bout where Berrios eked out a 125 vote margin of victory. Should be close again this year.


  11. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    A Fenwick kid from Austin named Blake Sercye is running for Cook county board.

    He graduated from Princeton and University of Chicago and is a bigfoot lawyer at Jenner and Block.

    His top opponent is former alderman Ike Carothers, who recently completed an involuntary federal scholarship at Oxford — Wisconsin.

    Everyone and their brother has endorsed Sercye, including Emanuel and Preckwinkle. But from what I’ve read, Ike is in the driver’s seat.


  12. - John - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    81st District the Matune vs. Sandack dumpster fire. I really think this one could go either way. Too close to call.

    Also I am watching the 11th district Congressional race. I believe that Miller will win.


  13. - AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    Andrade/Schiavone in the 40th house. Now that he’s out of power, does Dick Mell still have the ability to pull out a win in a tight race. Schiavone has lots of ads on TV. Many more than Andrade. I haven’t seen any polling numbers on this one.


  14. - just askin' - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    Here are my predictions.

    Matune wins 81st.
    Cox wins 110.

    For no other reason than to have two people with sexual misconduct in their past would be great for Democratic changes. (Though we could only win 81).

    Erika Harold in 13. Because JOAN! Ok, I jest.

    I think George Gollin pulls it off in the end.

    Carol Ammons in 103 because Sam hasn’t been seen in weeks and no one trusts a 26 year old attorney that no one knows… Even his press conferences are more about Don Gerard than Rosenberg.

    Bert Miller I think has it.

    Larry Kaifesh wins the right to finish second place in November to Tammy Duckworth.

    Terrence Goggin wins his write-in campaign for the GOP nod…

    I kid…


  15. - Levois - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:19 am:

    Bill Beavers old seat on the cook county board. Stanley Moore has at least two other challengers Nick Smith & Robert McKay. That should be most interesting.


  16. - A. Nonymous - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:20 am:

    JO -

    I think you’re wrong on MWRD.

    Josina Morita seems to always be in three places at once. My money’s on her taking a spot.


  17. - Walker - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:25 am:

    On MWRD, I also think Morita wins.


  18. - fed up - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    wordslinger.

    Completly agree with you. It says a lot about Cook co, Illinois and the local Dems that Ike is going to win.


  19. - Toure's Latte - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    Local? Voted for Van Nessa Greer and Juan Thomas over Julia Kennedy Beckman and Duffy Blackburn for 11th State Central Committee. I think that’s the first time there has been a choice. Nothing else local. The drama always seems to be Republican primaries.


  20. - Toure's Latte - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    PS- Rich, google’s “Skynet” may have stopped you if your emails sending have been suddenly higher. I got shut down once organizing a family reunion. Check with human custy support and they will get you back up and running.


  21. - Just Observing - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    @A. Nonymous –

    You may very well be right re: Josina — she is certainly a contender. As you know, this race is a crapshoot though. Campaigning for this position is helpful… but name ID, ethnicity, gender, ballot position, etc. heavily matter in this race too.


  22. - wayward - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:32 am:

    For IL-13, I think Ann Callis has the primary. For 103 legislative district, I’m hoping Rosenberg, though the GOP would probably prefer to run against Ammons. :)


  23. - Bill White - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:33 am:

    Oswego Willy gets enough write in votes to pass Rauner, Dillard, Brady and Rutherford.

    Quinn drops out of the race and endorses OW.


  24. - SonofSuperAbe2014 - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:34 am:

    Sandack in the 81st. It is never a good day when ABC News 7 runs Matune’s arrest and conviction record.


  25. - Anon - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:34 am:

    Appreciated Ormby’s poll in Dem gov primary. I’ve been thinking for a while that Quinn’s token opponent will get a significant vote, mostly as a protest…and 36% is indeed significant.


  26. - Burns' Muck Raker - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:35 am:

    Wordslinger,

    You’re way off.

    http://politics.suntimes.com/article/chicago/boykins-poll-shows-him-20-points-cook-county-race/tue-03042014-1029am


  27. - Bunson8r - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:39 am:

    *Excuse me, David Earl Williams III


  28. - wayward - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Bill White,
    Oswego Willy might be a better choice than anyone actually running for guv.


  29. - allknowingmasterofracoondom - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:43 am:

    Ed Sullivan vs Bob Bednar in the 51st.

    Sullivan has been solid for years, easy squeezy 51st GOP District. Bob Bednar is a bus driver who also ran for Comptroller in Lake County and was beaten badly. He got some $$ from the right, and has been beating on Sullivan locally about Sullivan’s gay marriage vote. I predict Sullivan in a landslide.


  30. - Tom B. - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    @Burns

    Old poll, not one piece of mail was down for Blake and he’d already picked up 10% of the vote through just field. Double digit # have hit since. This is a race.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    While it appears the Campaign is dormant, I hope - wayward - and - Bill White - check with -Norseman - after March 19th.

    (A very solemn hat tip to “Bill”. “Bill” will always be the original, and copies of an original never hold a candle to that original. Period.)


  32. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:56 am:

    === Andrade/Schiavone in the 40th house. Now that he’s out of power, does Dick Mell still have the ability to pull out a win in a tight race. Schiavone has lots of ads on TV. Many more than Andrade. I haven’t seen any polling numbers on this one. ===

    AFSCME Steward, this one isn’t so tight. Andrade wins easily. Remember its not just Andrade v. Schiavone. Its Andrade v. Schaivone/Goldstein/Harmston/Pasieka.


  33. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 10:57 am:

    I will be watching the Anthony seat in the Primary, and that Rauner has been involved monetarily has peaked my interest.

    Cross’ seat is “interesting”, but too silent to get me ginned up about a seat that now becomes a back bencher, and possibly a winner the Durkin Crew might have problems with from Jump Street.

    The dynamic of Proft/Caprio and the HGOP Crew with Breen and Matune, and Ives. A “two out if three fall” cage match for the idea of “who runs who’s group”? Yeah, got an eye on all three.


  34. - AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:00 am:

    Anon

    “=== Andrade/Schiavone in the 40th house. Now that he’s out of power, does Dick Mell still have the ability to pull out a win in a tight race. Schiavone has lots of ads on TV. Many more than Andrade. I haven’t seen any polling numbers on this one. ===

    AFSCME Steward, this one isn’t so tight. Andrade wins easily. Remember its not just Andrade v. Schiavone. Its Andrade v. Schaivone/Goldstein/Harmston/Pasieka.”

    I think it is a 2 way race. Schiavone has union backing & support from some heavy weight Dems. Both Andrade & Schiavone have foot soldiers knocking on doors. Schiavone has a lot of TV presence. Andrade has the regular organization backing. We’ll see how indie the district is now that the Mells out out of it.


  35. - Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:03 am:

    In Cook County, there is a whole lot of nothing going on. There is not even a slate of county candidates filed. The only race is the governor’s nomination. I guess that I will watch Berrios v. Guzzardi, but that is not my turf.


  36. - Soccermom - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Here’s the thing about Blake. I know him. I used to work with him. He’s bright and personable.

    But I live in the district, and I am very close to some folks at Jenner. And Blake hasn’t called me to ask for a donation, I haven’t been invited to a coffee, nada.

    It’s great that Blake has received all these endorsements, and he probably deserves them. But if he wants to win in a district that, um, does not have a long history of progressive reform, then he needs to pick up the phone and knock on some doors.


  37. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:06 am:

    === I think it is a 2 way race. Schiavone has union backing & support from some heavy weight Dems. Both Andrade & Schiavone have foot soldiers knocking on doors. Schiavone has a lot of TV presence. ===

    It may be a two way race, but all of the other candidates will take votes from Schiavone, not Andrade. Also to win, Schiavone will need to run up big numbers outside of the 33rd Ward, which I don’t see happening since every single one of the candidates seems to be working those areas. I think the anti-Andrade vote will be split significantly enough that Andrade cruises. Either way, should be one of the interesting races to watch next week.


  38. - Cheswick - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:07 am:

    Gmail security settings page, where you can have them contact you if someone (or you) tries to change your password, and more:

    https://www.google.com/settings/security


  39. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:20 am:

    Sandack vs Matune. Sandack could be the future of the GOP in Ill. Focused on gov’t spending and realistic economic goals. The other guy wants to revisit settled stuff that is a NO WIN proposition.


  40. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:22 am:

    I would like Robert McKay to get elected to Cook County Board but the campaign needs to be more professional.

    I hope Josina Morita gets one of the three spots for MWRD. My second choice would be Brendan Houlihan.


  41. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:29 am:

    I really like Blake Sercye too.

    I have some sympathy with Soccermom’s critique that Sercye spends a little too much time schmoozing insiders and could spent more time on doors and making calls.

    But a Cook County Board district is large.

    And until Sercye got the money and endorsements, he wasn’t considered viable.

    So, he kinda had to put a bunch of time into raising money and getting endorsements.

    I hope Sercye wins. Compared to some of the candidates for Cook County Board (cough, Eddie Reyes, Luis Arroyo, Jr.) Sercye seems like a towering intellect of public policy.


  42. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:35 am:

    Are we doing predictions?

    Put me down for:

    Rauner
    Cross
    Callis
    Andrade
    Guzzardi


  43. - Galewood - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:46 am:

    Don’t be surprised if Christian Mitchell gets close to 60%. If there really was chance of Jay Travis winning, Dem Majority would have gone with the really bad stuff they have on Travis


  44. - Spagnost - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:55 am:

    I’m with AFSCME Steward, I would love to see polling on this race. The unions are spending big money supporting Schiavone against Andrade. She also has the top ballot slot worth a couple points. I also highly doubt the other candidates in the race will pull many votes away from anyone, two of them don’t even have campaign committees set up with the state… I mean come on. In any case there has to be something the Unions are seeing that makes them so willing to spend big… or one would think.


  45. - John B - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:55 am:

    Madison County has a Sheriff’s race between an incumbent and his former Deputy Cheif Sheriff. Hertz (incumbent) has the support of the Madison County Democrats. Lakin has the support of many local police departments.


  46. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:55 am:

    Congress 13, State Rep 103, Champaign County Board 7: Callis, Rosenberg, & Weibel win.

    Goetten, the DCCC candidate, barely lost to Gill in 2012 and Gollin will not receive any residual votes like Gill did from campaigning virtually nonstop since 2004 because he has been doing no such thing. I think Rosenberg pulls it off because of Madigan help, but I’m not really sure on that one since polling showed it as a statistical dead heat with almost half undecided last time I saw any. As for CC Board 7, Al Kurtz is a vigorous and non stop campaigner, but his move to become chair of the county board ticked off a lot of people. I think former chair Pius Weibel gets back on the board.


  47. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:56 am:

    ===I haven’t seen any polling numbers on this one. ===

    I’ve been trying, but it’s a no-go. The district is being bombarded with robocalls so we can’t get anyone to answer their phones.


  48. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:16 pm:

    === I also highly doubt the other candidates in the race will pull many votes away from anyone, two of them don’t even have campaign committees set up with the state… I mean come on. ===

    All I know is that I’ve heard more people say they are voting for Harmston in the 45th Ward than Schiavone. Goldstein has been walking there too.


  49. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:16 pm:

    Rich, thank you for this tidbit.

    I know a number of people want to make an informed vote in the 40th.

    Many of them are looking for the strongest non-Andrade candidate. They are opposed to Andrade’s ties to the Mell organization and regular Dems.

    My two cents is Aaron Goldstein was particularly sharp at Old Irving Park.

    My guess is Schiavone gets more votes than the other non-Andrade candidates but it’s not particularly close.

    I think Schiavone’s attacks get diffused painting Andrade and Goldstein with the same brush. Andrade is clearly a Machine guy. Goldstein did a little criminal defense work for two Machine guys.

    If Schiavone were honest she’d admit she has a whole lot more insider support than Goldstein, Pasieka or Harmston.

    Andrade’s attacks on Schiavone also seem a bit weak. Schiavone is invested in some nefarious corporation but Andrade doesn’t name the corporation or the amount of the investment.

    I liked Andrade when I’ve dealt with him. But when I read the Trib endorsement, I noticed he game them the vibe he wants to cut government more. And he gave me the vibe he wants gov’t to do more to help people and he’s open to discussing taxes on capital.

    I suspect Andrade is pretty good at making diverse people feel like he’s on their side, which is a good thing for a politician. Does Andrade have a vision of moving the state in a positive direction or is he going to be just another rep?

    For all those people who say vote Schiavone b/c it’s a chance to show Mell’s organization can be beat… Is there anything about Schiavone that makes you think she’ll be more of a force for change than Kelly Cassidy, Sara Feigenholz, Anne Williams, Robyn Gabel, Fine and the other North Side, inner suburb, safe liberals who are part of the system?


  50. - Northwest Sider - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:17 pm:

    I think Schiavone eeks it out versus Andrade.

    Their volunteer army has hit my door twice already in the last week. Haven’t heard a single word from any other candidate - although I got a robocall from Goldstein’s daughter asking for me to vote for her dad.

    Guzzardi wins.
    Reyes wins.
    Josina, Houlihan and Avila win.


  51. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:23 pm:

    Harmston went from pretty forgettable when she spoke at Northside DFA in November to pretty sharp at the Old Irving Park forum in February.

    That said, I saw her voting history going back to 2000. As I recall, she voted Dem in 2008, 2010 and the 2009 special. The rest of them were all GOP.


  52. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:26 pm:

    === I think Schiavone eeks it out versus Andrade. ===

    Do you think she wins in the 33rd Ward?


  53. - West Sider - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:26 pm:

    I completely agree with Carl Nyberg, regarding Blake Sercye. I am guardedly hopeful that a strong GOTV effort will overcome low early name recognition. Sercye is an extremely bright young man with huge upside potential.


  54. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:29 pm:

    Arroyo’s negative message on Reyes is Reyes has betrayed the Democratic Party in some unspecified way.

    You get the impression Reyes committed some social faux pas–didn’t send the right people Xmas cards or something–but the insiders feel they don’t need to explain it to the little people.

    Reyes isn’t given much reason to vote for him other than he’s a reliable vote for Preckwinkle. But Arroyo is making an even weaker case.

    Also, it was kinda a low class move for Rep. Arroyo to withhold his support for gay marriage until LGBT leaders committed to support Junior for county board.

    Arroyo’s defenders can say “that’s how it’s done”. OK. But if you’re too obvious about it and you do it on a moral issue then you come off looking immoral.


  55. - Spagnost - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:31 pm:

    I personally thought she was miserable at the Old Irving Park forum, only stand outs to me were Schiavone and Goldstein, Andrade was weirdly super nervous. Goldstein was a lot more personable than Nancy though, that’s for sure.


  56. - Loop Lady - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:31 pm:

    Soccermom and Nyberg: Sercye will be at a fundraiser tommorrow night at The Avenue Alehouse hosted by Precwinckle and The Democratic Party of Oak Park…


  57. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:33 pm:

    If Andrade is weak in 33, Deb Mell better get on the doors early.

    If Berrios is weak in 31, the knives are gonna come out there too. The people who don’t like the Berrios family *really* don’t like the Berrios family for specific reasons.

    With the Mells it’s more of a general “dynasties are bad” reasoning, less specific grievances and animosity than with the Berrios family.


  58. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:38 pm:

    Andrade bombed at Old Irving Park. He was much better at NDFA where he walked in the room and had an attitude.

    He started off by saying, “I know a bunch of you are never going to support me b/c of how I got the job but I’m going to tell you what I’m about.” He spoke from the heart.

    At Old Irving Park Association Andrade would list co-sponsorship of every bill that would address the issue. There was no passion or conviction until the end when he talked about guns.

    Andrade had a really bad night there. Aaron Goldstein would love for everyone to vote based on that one night at Old Irving Park Association.


  59. - Original Rambler - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:38 pm:

    Been walking a precinct in 33 for Jaime. Amazed at the level of support for him, even non-Hispanics. If they come out Jaime wins easily. Also, to his credit, Jaime has been knocking on doors nonstop. That means a lot to these voters. I have no idea what is going on in other parts of the district.


  60. - Northwest Dem - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:39 pm:

    And a grand total of zero people are going to vote for Reyes over Arroyo because Daddy Arroyo conditioned gay marriage support on endorsing his son.

    Not saying Reyes won’t win, just saying no one cares about that detail


  61. - Spagnost - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    Loop Lady I was under the impression that it was a GOTV Rally “free” rather than a fundraiser. I would be interested in seeing how many people show up to that and how many of them end up volunteering on E-day and GOTV which is the point.


  62. - Northwest Dem - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:42 pm:

    The Preckwinkle/Sercye event is totally free. If you come with a check, however, it will be graciously accepted


  63. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:46 pm:

    Didn’t Don Harmon get into the Illinois Senate with Carothers taking care of Harmon in 29th Ward and West Side?

    Is Harmon looking to elect Sercye or split the anti-Carothers vote?

    I guess Harmon has a friend on Cook County Board whether Sercye or Carothers wins.

    And Ike is a big boy. I’m sure if Harmon had to explain it, Carothers took it well.

    “Ike, you’re too hot for Oak Park. You’re gonna need to get your votes on West Side. I couldn’t deliver Oak Park for you, and if I tried, it would burn bridges for me.”


  64. - Northwest Dem - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:50 pm:

    Until 3 days before the Toni & Rahm endorsements, Harmon insisted DPOP would stay neutral.

    Everyone assumed that the no endorsement was an effective endorsement of Ike (which he could not make in Oak Park - even if he didn’t have a primary opponent in Bob Galhotra).

    Frankly, I’m surprised why Harmon didn’t handpick someone back in August to take over the seat. He has by a mile the largest weighted committeeman vote in that district. Perhaps he would have had not Earlene Collins dithered about whether or not she was running until well into the petitioning season


  65. - Spagnost - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:00 pm:

    Looks like Sercye got another pretty big cash infusion from Preckwinkle and others but still nothing directly from Rahm. I think that’s the most interesting thing about this race so far, Rahm potentially welshing on the commitment of 52k.


  66. - Big Debbie - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:01 pm:

    The three big ones in local Champaign politics are:

    1. 13th CD. Prediction: Callis takes the D nod and Davis the R, both by miles. Gollin’s recent ad is backfiring and turning previous supporters into undecideds. Gollin will end up around where he is in the recent subscriber poll. Green will pick up support Gollin should have had, and will end up breaking double digits.

    2. 7th County Board District: Very local, but interesting. The incumbent County Board Chair Al Kurtz v. former County Board Chair (his most recent predecessor) Pius Weibel. Kurtz became board chair by striking a deal with republicans (something that was even too sleazy for House of Cards, if you remember the failed plot to become speaker with the votes of republicans). Some other local trivia about the race, the Champaign County Democratic Party (at least as far as anyone can remember) has never endorsed any candidate in a primary before endorsing Weibel over Kurtz a few weeks ago. Prediction: Weibel, by 5 points.

    3. 103rd state rep.: Ammons v. Rosenberg. Ammons is being outspent 10-1, yet, being on the ground (for the above two races, not this one) I’d say flip a coin. Ammons has put together a pretty powerful ground game, and just received the endorsement of Emily’s List along with a modest influx of cash from the IFT and CTU. But, Rosenberg has most of the local heavy-hitters lined up and party support, plus he did at least 10 direct mail pieces before Ammons’ first one hit this weekend.

    This one will be really close, won’t even hazard a prediction.


  67. - Spagnost - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Speaking of polling in the 40th District race looks like Andrade just had a $5k tracking poll paid for.


  68. - W.S. Walcott - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    I am interested in the Democratic primary in the 79th district. Kate Cloonen versus John Howard. Some say that Howard is actually a Republican and is attempting to give Republicans two bites at the apple. The real opponent is in the general, Glenn Nixon, whom Cloonen very narrowly beat two years ago. I’d like to see some polling numbers on this race, to see if Howard is getting any traction at all. Haven’t been able to find anything. There is some Hinky stuff going on in Kankakee County, but that’s not all that surprising.

    What I think will be interesting, is to see how many state employees, teachers, University employees etc. cross over and pull Republican ballots in an attempt to beat Rauner. This could have a huge impact on tightly contested Democratic primary contests throughout the state.


  69. - Wally2Times - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:51 pm:

    If the question is about NON-LEGISLATIVE local races, the Republican Primary for Sangamon County Sheriff between Jack Campbell and Wes Barr is a fascinating race that will have a lasting impact on the future of the Sangamon County Republican Party. There will be a variety of implications. I think Barr wins in a tight race.


  70. - kathryn - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 4:29 pm:

    I hope George Gollin wins. We need a scientist whose training is to solve problems not another lawyer whose training is to argue and disrupt. We have enough lawyers.


  71. - Champaign Gollin guy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 6:49 pm:

    Gollin needs undecideds to split 60-40 in his favor to win. That’s going to be tough, but not impossible. I’m not sure about the credibility of the poll that was done. There’s way no way David Green has as much support as shown in the poll. I predict he won’t finish above two percent. Gollin and Callis will be closer than expected as Gollin will win Champaign County, the county with the most democratic primary votes in the district.


  72. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 6:56 pm:

    Lot of TV spots for Shelly Harris for appellate court. Don’t recall that before.


  73. - Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 7:12 pm:

    Sad to say this time…not really!


  74. - jake - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 8:05 pm:

    103rd is really interesting. Carol Ammons has a lot of name recognition and is an elected official but is burdened with a couple of serious ethical issues from her past which she has not explained credibly. Sam Rosenberg is inexperienced, but he is a much better walker than Carol and is very articulate, (as is she). He has endorsements of both of the mayors in the district and the retiring state rep. He also has the Speaker on his side but that is a mixed blessing, since the Speaker is not beloved in this downstate district, and the fliers that his people have sent on Sam’s behalf have been sort of heavy-handed for this university town electorate.

    As full disclaimer, I am a Rosenberg supporter, but have tried to give a balanced picture above as to how I see it objectively. Basically–very close. As far as which would be stronger in the general election, I think Rich already alluded to that in a column some time ago, when he called Ammons an opposition researcher’s dream.


  75. - DOI CHEF - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 8:14 pm:

    Mason Co. has a chance to elect the first Republican sheriff in over 40 years. Retired State Trooper Tom Hardesty is competing against former Mason Co. Sheriff’s Deputy Jim Kinzer. The winner will take on the newly appointed and wildly unpopular Sheriff Paul Gann. Sheriff needs to be someone who can connect with the public. Kinzer wins the primary and the fall election.


  76. - Priceless... - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:24 am:

    I think Bert Miller is positioned to upset Senger in the 11th Congressional.


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