SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
A Bill Brady reality check

Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014

* Kurk Erickson

Despite polls showing super-wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner leading the Republican race for governor with a week to go, state Sen. Bill Brady said he’s confident voters will look to him on Election Day.

Calling himself the only “reliable Republican” in the four-way race, the Bloomington businessman said Rauner and state Sen. Kirk Dillard have ties to Democrats that will turn GOP voters toward him. […]

Brady also said the $14 million raised by Rauner won’t give an automatic win to the political newcomer from Winnetka, who has ties to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.

“Money doesn’t buy elections,” Brady said. “Our voters are going to turn out.”

* OK, let’s look at a little history.

In the 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary, Bill Brady finished third with 18.4 percent.

In the 2010 primary, Brady won with 20.26 percent.

He’s currently polling at 19 percent.

Notice a pattern?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


47 Comments
  1. - Nathan Walder - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:24 am:

    That he’s climbing ?


  2. - phocion - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    “Notice a pattern?”

    Yep.


  3. - William j Kelly - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:27 am:

    If by reliable he means vote splitter.


  4. - Big Joe - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:31 am:

    The pattern is that he is delusional.


  5. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    The pattern is that right now he is where he’s always been in three successive campaigns. 18-20 percent.


  6. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:33 am:

    He’s asymptotically approaching 19.2%?


  7. - Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:34 am:

    a) Consistent loyal support.

    OR

    b) Stuck in the mud.

    Seriously, the consistent pattern would seem to mean he needs multiple candidates splitting the vote, then he can sneak in for a win. Not the right field this time. Maybe he should hope for a crowded Republican US Senate field next time?


  8. - Nathan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:37 am:

    Rich did you see the ad the American retired association for elderly people released today


  9. - In the Middle - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:37 am:

    It’s 4-way race; the winner has to break at least 25%. I can only see Dillard getting above that, and I just don’t see that being enough to win.

    If Rauner even gets 1/3 of the vote, it’ll be the most united the R’s have been in a primary in ages.


  10. - DuPage Dave - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:43 am:

    I kinda feel sorry for Brady. He comes across as a decent guy and hardworking schlub who can’t catch a break. But he can’t win an election with fewer than six contestants, so 20 percent just won’t cut it.

    The economy is picking up bit by bit so let’s hope the Brady construction business starts growing again and that Bill can devote his attention to those endeavors. Because he won’t ever be governor.


  11. - MrJM - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:43 am:

    For those who are “Visual Learners”: http://www.diychart.com/Image/4/69b53e19-ed8f-46ed-9140-f40ab24d0f37.png

    – MrJM


  12. - Big Muddy - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:43 am:

    Yep. A pattern of him having a 80% chance that he’s not elected. And that is 80% too low.


  13. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:45 am:

    Nathan, yes, and so did less than 300 YouTube viewers. It’s a web video.


  14. - langhorne - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    this poll proves brady is reliable. he reliably stays stuck–same message, same lack of funding, same core of voters, same result. you cant keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result.

    the conclusion i sadly draw from the poll is that, when pushed, the undecideds break heavily for rauner, who only had to get about a third of undecideds to block dillard. death knell for dillard.

    now all that matters is turnout. who actually makes it to the polls. or a blistering, effective new anti rauner ad using the $400k afscme money. also gotv, if dillards union buddies can deliver. and beans. magic beans. lots of em.

    rutherford shoulda got out weeks ago. doing so doesnt have any reflection on the merits of his lawsuit. its just plain reality.

    you can fool some of the people…


  15. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    Before the Rauner juggernaut, a base of 20% would have put you in reasonable striking distance in a four-way race if you could raise any money.

    But Brady couldn’t raise a dime. And Rauner is a fundraising machine, not just a self-funder. He starved the other campaigns of cash until the unions got in for Dillard, too little, too late.


  16. - Westward - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    Nathan! It’s over.

    It’s Bill Brady / D Lard / Danny R’s smug attitude that is really repulsing me. Guys. Your plan failed. Miserably. Now your plan, all of you, is to stay in the race to TRY and finish second. For what purpose?? Also, no way would you want to step out and have your opponent (non-BR) win. Oh no. Can’t have someone saying they finished ahead of you if you have any say about it. Ha. For second place. Wowsers. Man, these are the guys who contributed to doing nothing but blowing hot air about all the stuff they were gonna do.


  17. - Bobby Hill - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:50 am:

    He’s not my guy but he almost won the general election last time in a blue leaning state dragging Jason Plumber along with him. If Rauner doesn’t win, my money would be on him.


  18. - Mokenavince - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    He’s below the Mendoza line , no chance.


  19. - Nathan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    Rich miller , Bill still has a chance don’t count him out yet . Remember in 2010 . He has the backing of the Will County GOP as well sir . That’s huge


  20. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    ===Remember in 2010 ===

    Yeah, he got 20 percent of the vote, which was pretty much what he got four years earlier and what he’s polling at now.

    He’s got a ceiling.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    “Well, I for one see the 18-20% as a huge number.

    Signed,

    Dan Rutherford
    @FakeRutherfordDan”


  22. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    At this point, the spoiler rumors for Brady are pretty strong. Many people throughout the state have called for him to drop out of the race. If he stays in, he is in this for Rauner.


  23. - Westward - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Thank YOU, anon! Thank you.


  24. - He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:21 am:

    If Brady or Rutherford really gave a hoot about the Republican party they would have dropped out and put their support to Dillard. It is almost as if Rauner is paying them to stay in the race. It is unfortunate that there is NO GOP STATE LEADERSHIP, because if there was, they would have negotiated some sort of deal to get them to drop out. Note to Brady, your done, do not run again.


  25. - Wally - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    Hey Rich, how about a prediction post with projected vote percentages?


  26. - Nathan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:36 am:

    Or how about a online poll on here that ask who we are going to vote for in the republican primary for governor . Would be interesting to see the results . Please do Rich


  27. - A guy... - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:00 am:

    If a sappling falls in the forest and noone is there to hear it…does it… Nevermind.


  28. - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:17 am:

    He makes Ryan Look… Who say’s leadership isn’t behind Rauner? By your logic you assume they WANT one of the other 3… Maybe they are tired of losing…?


  29. - Darienite - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:45 am:

    At least Brady’s supporters aren’t dying off…yet.


  30. - dupage dan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:58 am:

    If Brady and Rutherford drop out and endorse Dillard would their combined totals would put him over the top at this point? Are there still too many undecided voters?


  31. - Anon - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    Brady had one shot at governor and blew it in a huge GOP wave election vs. a weak Democrat. Stick a fork in his career, along with Rutherford’s.


  32. - the Patriot - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:30 pm:

    I backed Brady in 06 and 10. He and Rutherford have two choices. 1. Drop out and endorse Dilllard. 2. Stay in which proves their egos trump their desire fixing the state.

    It is not about me liking Dillard. I don’t. It is a numerical reality of the situation. You have no chance in a 4 way race. Either be a spoiler that helps Rauner, or do the right thing.


  33. - Upon Further Review - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:38 pm:

    A definite pattern. Brady does not stand a chance in a field with less than six candidates to slice up the vote.


  34. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    You guys don’t get it. Rauner is winning because voters are tired of what his opposition represents. Brady and Rutherford could drop out and endorse Dillard, but to the majority of GOP primary voters it wouldn’t matter. They are tired of nominating losers.

    They want the new guy.


  35. - the Patriot - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    The trend is that about 65% want one of the traditional guys, 35% want a new one. On most issues, Brady, Rutherford, and Dillard are interchangeable as far as the base is concerned. IF two of them drop, most of those voters do not go to Rauner.


  36. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:27 pm:

    Nathan, we’ve done that several times already.


  37. - A guy... - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:34 pm:

    Patriot, that must be that “new” math the youngsters are talking about these days.


  38. - A guy... - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:42 pm:

    And…Let’s see. Bill Brady, always been criticized by the unions and never helped. Rutherford; was the heir apparent to the union wad. He messed up badly. They abandoned him in a heartbeat. Dillard, now the union darling and the drain they’ve flushed their money down with nearly no effect. I want to get this straight. Brady and Rutherford are being “selfish” and they need to stand aside so your new best friend Dillard “the unselfish one” run alone. Because the unions have been so good to the others, they should step aside and not be selfish, so that the truly most unselfish and their bad investment candidate can add a couple of points and still lose miserably. Because ALL of their supporters will jump on the Dillard bandwagon and every undecided will break his way too. And legions of Democrats will switch over to vote in the Republican primary. Got it. The switcheroos are driven by affection for a candidate, not any issue that offends one category of people; i.e. John Kennedy and Barack Obama. Might want to consider that it was Republicans doing the switching in those very rare cases. I remember lots of Reagan Democrats, but not in a primary.


  39. - Reformed Public Servant - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    Dillard Democrats?


  40. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    – but to the majority of GOP primary voters it wouldn’t matter. They are tired of nominating losers.

    They want the new guy.–

    Tribune Poll, three days ago:

    Oberweis–52%

    Truax — 18%

    Are you sure money is not a factor in these races?


  41. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:53 pm:

    Governor race, not US Senate.


  42. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    –Governor race, not US Senate.–

    Same voters, correct?

    According to the polls, more of them want a three-time statewide primary loser for Senate than they do the “new guy” and not the “old losers” for governor.

    Why’s that? You speak for the majority of GOP voters (actually, A Guy already has that job, but he appears to be willing to share when he agrees with you).

    What do Oberweis and Rauner have in common except for a lot more money than their opponents?


  43. - dupage dan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:36 pm:

    word, I think Oberweis may be seen as the outsider even now. I’m not saying he is, just that he may be perceived as such. Besides, he has more name recognition than Truax. I just don’t think you can compare these 2 contests even with the same voters. Voters are the craziest animals. Kinda like juries - hard to predict.


  44. - Nathan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 5:05 pm:

    How about Bill Brady for US Senate in 2016 . Let’s not forget Rich miller is a democrat voting for Kirk Dillard


  45. - ironman - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 5:07 pm:

    Brady, needs to let his EGO go. He will get 18.6 percent. The dems will cross over and Dillard wins. Rutherford needs to bow out gracefully and quit degrading himself. Regardless if charges are true or not.


  46. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 6:45 pm:

    - Nathan -,

    We are all guests here. Drive-by remarks are not a good way to be seen.

    This is one of a few places where a candidate can get huge praise in one Post, and taken to the woodshed in the very next Post…

    …Republicans and Democrats alike.

    Ask around.


  47. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:31 pm:

    wordy -
    last week we went over all that when the Tribune endorsed Rauner and Rich pointed out how they have endorsed the self funders since 2002. All the self-funders spent more than the rest - AND THEY LOST.

    So - what you forgot?

    You need to sandbag that old argument because what matters here is the message and the opponents, not the money.

    It was just last week we discussed this.

    So while you can point out Oberweis’ lead over Truax to support your argument - I can, along with Rich and everyone else who remembers this blog from way back, uh, last week, can give you the 2002 race, the 2006 race and the 2010 race as examples when the biggest spender did not win.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Kirk touts bill to refund $154K to Chicago Stock Exchange
* Tomorrow's news today
* Rauner launches new blog
* Question of the day
* Illinois Policy Institute wins Round 2 of EDR battle
* A lesson in why tougher laws don't always work
* Trump campaign blames Rauner-signed law for Chicago violence increase
* Republican candidate says he doesn't want newspaper's endorsement
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Rate Munger's first TV ad
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Forget Twitter, this fall’s biggest tech acquisition could see Qualcomm snap up NXP
* Sharp once again tipped as major OLED display supplier for ‘next-gen’ iPhones
* Apple in Talks With Sharp to Supply OLED Displays for Next-Generation iPhones
* Avast CEO on why it’s just spent $1.4BN to absorb security rival AVG
* Lenovo Tab3 8 Plus is reportedly on the way with Marshmallow, 1200p screen, optional LTE
* Taiwan Government Takes Bank Applications to Offer Apple Pay
* Google Apps for Work is now G Suite, merely a piece of the new Google Cloud puzzle

* Quintana ends 2016 with quality start in loss
* Quintana ends 2016 with quality start in loss
* Rodon eyes continued success in opener against Twins
* Narvaez hopes for shot to start next season
* Sale to start season finale on Sunday
* Gonzalez twirls gem as Frazier's HR beats Rays
* Frazier reaches personal goal with 40th HR

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Moylan, Gott play Madigan-Rauner state budget b.....
* Munger best bet for comptroller..
* VGTs continue to produce growing revenues in pa.....
* Decatur strikes gold with gaming machines – Her.....
* Editorial: Juveniles deserve weekend hearings, .....
* IL Bar Association President urges society to s.....
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inma.....
* Morning Spin: Early voting begins in Illinois, .....
* Moylan, Gott play Madigan-Rauner state budget b.....
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inma.....


* Man who inadvertently shoots friend sentenced to prison
* EXCHANGE: Museum opens door to greater inclusiveness
* Illinois congresswoman attending state funeral for Peres
* Tribune: Release Chicago street-gang trial exhibits
* Kendall County approves $3 million courthouse, jail security
* Chicago announces new steps in possible Red Line expansion
* Ex-NBA player shows fear during testimony against gang
* Ex-NBA player shows fear during testimony against gang
* Why is Chicago a murder capital? Clues from a bloody month
* Declining rattlesnake species to get federal protection

* Federal judge won't reverse ruling on Illinois voter registration
* Rauner's deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* State of Illinois caught up on CWLP bills
* Gov. Rauner's budget deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Illinois asks judge to reverse voter-registration ruling
* State: Chicago-area doctor puts cat saliva in vaccines
* Diagnosed concussions among Illinois youth up 83 percent
* Federal judge OKs improvement plan for Illinois child agency
* Audit: College of DuPage severance outpaces similar deals

* CME disappears from dealmaking, and that may not be bad
* McCormick Place's big plan: thinking small
* Why is Chicago a murder capital? Clues from a bloody month
* Why the $600 EpiPen costs $69 in Britain
* Harken exits Obamacare markets as UnitedHealth startup struggles


* Three distinct days in Las Vegas: the old, the new, the outdoors
* Man wanted in U of I shooting surrenders to police
* 3 dead, 8 wounded in city shootings Thursday
* Austin shooting leaves 1 wounded
* Woman wounded in Hermosa drive-by
* 1 hurt in Roseland shooting
* Dear Abby: All the voting info is a click away
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Sept. 30, 2016
* Emanuel trying to unload Michael Reese albatross
* Family of slain black man wants police to release full video


* A play that sums up the Bears’ disturbingly bad offense
* Champaign shooting suspect was arrested 2 days after parole from boot camp
* Man wanted in Champaign shooting surrenders to police
* Family pressing for answers in deaths of two sisters who died on African island vacation
* Homicide suspected in death of woman found at west suburban White Pines Golf Course
* Trump injects Bill Clinton's sex scandals, Miss Universe 'sex tape' into race for president
* Comet-chasing space probe Rosetta concludes 12-year-mission
* Laquan McDonald shooting witness sues, says police pressured her to change story
* Family: South suburban teen killed on first day of college
* For the Ricketts family, patience pays off


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Federal judge won't reverse ruling on Illinois voter registration
* Rauner's deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Our View: You have no excuse not to vote
* Their View: More of the same from dysfunctional Congress
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* State of Illinois caught up on CWLP bills
* Gov. Rauner's budget deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Illinois asks judge to reverse voter-registration ruling
* Bernard Schoenburg: GOP attacks DelGiorno for pension he now won't get
* Eugene Robinson: Clinton delivers a beat-down


* What to do in Decatur this October
* Attempted murder trial to conclude next week
* Police still after answers in dog abuse case
* What's in a name: Yankee Ridge Elementary in Urbana
* Mark Kirk for Senate
* Lawmakers lambaste Wells Fargo's CEO
* UI student who lost wallet at football game faces charges because of contents
* West Nile cases in area limited to animals, insects so far
* Area history, Sept. 30, 2016
* This day in history, Sept. 30, 2016


* Cops & Crime: Naperville teen in trouble over bogus tollway citations
* Dawn Patrol: Man gets 35 years for Aurora murder
* After fatal train crash, investigators seek answers
* European Space Agency loses contact with Rosetta probe marking expected end of its 12-year mission
* A look at rising costs for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin: Trump “Bromance” With Putin Threat......

* Sen. Mark Kirk Turns Down Several Chicago ......

* First, Kill All Publicly-Traded Law Firms
* Internet Limits, Bill Daley and Obama...
* Get Out And Vote....
* Economy's 'Dr. Doom' Makes Heroic Call
* Bonus Time: You Give, Wall St. Takes
* Let's Rescue "The Bank of You and Me"
* Sound the Alarm! Bank Buying Ahead
* Stock Plunge, Bank Fight and More!
* Free Enterprise? Buffett Counts On Bailout
* GOP Fallback: When In Doubt Blame Pelosi


* Illinois awarded $1 million grant to pilot person-centered supportive services program - Program will help persons living with or those at high-risk of developing Alzheimer’s and related dementia
* Governor Rauner Urges Action on Bipartisan Legislation to Reduce Recidivism
* Governor Rauner Encourages Illinoisans to Receive Flu Shot
* Honoring Former President and Prime Minister of Israel - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff immediately until Sunset, Friday, September 30, 2016.
* First 2016 Human West Nile Virus Deaths in Illinois




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller