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Proft claims poll shows Matune lead

Friday, Mar 14, 2014

* From Dan Proft…

Liberty Principles PAC-backed Keith Matune Opens Up a Lead on incumbent Ron Sandack

Conservative challenger Keith Matune has opened up a lead on incumbent Republican State Rep. Ron Sandack entering the final weekend before the Republican Primary Election on Tuesday, March 18.

Over the course of the last 7 weeks, Matune has steadily risen in the polls as voters in the 81th District have gotten to know him and to evaluate him in comparison to Sandack, including through communications in district (mail, phones, TV, online) produced by Liberty Principles PAC.

The survey was commissioned by Liberty Principles PAC and conducted by the Florida-based polling firm of Fabrizio Lee (www.fabriziolee.com).

Sandack-Matune survey
DATE: March 11-12
Sample: 300 Likely GOP primary voters
Margin of Error: +/- 5.7%

    Matune 37
    Sandack 31

When I first surveyed this race on January 21-22, Sandack led 32-16. When I next surveyed the race on March 2-3, Sandack led 31-22. Now Matune has opened up a lead outside the margin of error.

- Dan Proft, Chairman, Liberty Principles PAC

NOTES:
Matune’s favorable/unfavorable is nearly 2:1 (35-19) whereas Sandack’s is 1:1 (34-33)
Matune wins among those who have heard of both (78% of sample) by 11. Matune leads with those who have an opinion of both (50% of sample) by 23.
Matune leads with conservatives by 21

- Posted by Rich Miller        


29 Comments
  1. - Big Muddy - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    Thanks Rich!


  2. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    The first liar never has a chance, but sometimes it is the lie that folks remembered best.


  3. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:04 pm:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  4. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:06 pm:

    That’s weird. I meant to say:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  5. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    LESS THAN 35. Ugh. Sorry I fail at html. Less than 35 is bad.


  6. - A proud, numerically challenged people... - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    …in the 81th District.


  7. - Chicago Cynic - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    It’s Proft. It’s a 300 sample size. I’m highly dubious of this “poll.”


  8. - dave - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Is he going to share the actual poll questions and cross tabs?


  9. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    Let’s see.

    (1)A margin of error of 5.7% means that Matune may be 5.7% too high or Sandack is 5.7% too far down. A spread of 11.4% - so it is anyone’s race. That is what you get with the sample size.
    (2) The results heading says “Breen Pihos” - does that lend a certain dubiousness to the results?
    (3) A recent trip through Downers Grove….lots of Sandack signs. Matune signs, maybe they fell down in the snow, escaped through a window or something?


  10. - Northern Will - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    Hey Dan why don’t you show the polling questions and cross tabs?


  11. - Just sayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:24 pm:

    How does a sex offender have a 2-1 fav/unfav? If that’s true of Republican Primary voters, this state deserves to stay blue and the GOP needs to be wiped out.

    Why hasn’t Dorgan, Cronin or someone demanded he get out?


  12. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    We’ll find out soon enough.


  13. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    The inherent difficulties in polling these small districts make me suspicious and the lack of specifics even more.

    That being said, these guys are a new firm and the only poll they’ve done that I could find was FL-13 where they were pretty close (43-43-7) whereas it seemed that a lot of other polls had the Dem candidate up. So, maybe they’re really good. Either way, I’m not sold.


  14. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    Though, then again, if Sandack had an internal which showed him up, I’m sure he would have released it.


  15. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    ===these guys are a new firm ===

    These guys did poling for Bob Dole.


  16. - Wumpus - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:44 pm:

    A sample size of callers from Proft’s WLS show. Every time I want to like him, he does something to make me question that effort.


  17. - Bored Chairman - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:46 pm:

    Reap the whirlwind, Mr. Proft.


  18. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:47 pm:

    -Rich-

    Frabrizo polled for Dole. This is a new firm.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/


  19. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    No comment on poll, but the firm is well established and reputable - Tony Fabrizio is a well know, reputable GOP pollster.


  20. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:53 pm:

    And, regarding the firm being new or old is not relevant, this is still a firm run by reputable and well established pollsters. My own firm went through a recent name change and structural changes, but the fact is we have been polling for nearly two decades.


  21. - Powell - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    it’s a reputable firm. one of the best. the only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample


  22. - justsayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    All conjecture. Election day is the only proof of anything. Either way, Proft is a loser on this one. Even if he bests Sandack, this race makes him look bad and will continue to make him look bad through the general. If he loses, he loses too. A dumb move to put all your eggs in Matune’s messy basket.


  23. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    Fako is correct. And there are other numbers out there. Move along.


  24. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:08 pm:

    ===The only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample ===

    I agree with that. We gave up trying on this and some other races days ago. Nobody’s answering.


  25. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    I just wonder if polling firms are finding everyone. Not that I am complaining, my cell phone has received not a single political call (polling, robo call, nada). No home phone (for about two years now) - which used to be a bit active during election years. E-mails from the campaigns I have had contact with - and a few I have not contacted. I have not missed an election in over thirty years.


  26. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:22 pm:

    The Matune fav/unfav makes me question this. But then, I question anything that comes from Profit.


  27. - Mokenavince - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    We will know in 5 days how accurate Proft’s poll is.I don’t have much faith in it.


  28. - Tom - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 5:16 pm:

    300 sample size in a legislative district primary of one party is plenty. It may be hard to get people on the phone, but it sounds like they eventually got 300 to take the poll. Ask Fako, 300 is a decent sample size.


  29. - Election Polls Results - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:07 pm:

    I read this post and take lot of information from this post.Thanks


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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