SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Proft claims poll shows Matune lead

Friday, Mar 14, 2014

* From Dan Proft…

Liberty Principles PAC-backed Keith Matune Opens Up a Lead on incumbent Ron Sandack

Conservative challenger Keith Matune has opened up a lead on incumbent Republican State Rep. Ron Sandack entering the final weekend before the Republican Primary Election on Tuesday, March 18.

Over the course of the last 7 weeks, Matune has steadily risen in the polls as voters in the 81th District have gotten to know him and to evaluate him in comparison to Sandack, including through communications in district (mail, phones, TV, online) produced by Liberty Principles PAC.

The survey was commissioned by Liberty Principles PAC and conducted by the Florida-based polling firm of Fabrizio Lee (www.fabriziolee.com).

Sandack-Matune survey
DATE: March 11-12
Sample: 300 Likely GOP primary voters
Margin of Error: +/- 5.7%

    Matune 37
    Sandack 31

When I first surveyed this race on January 21-22, Sandack led 32-16. When I next surveyed the race on March 2-3, Sandack led 31-22. Now Matune has opened up a lead outside the margin of error.

- Dan Proft, Chairman, Liberty Principles PAC

NOTES:
Matune’s favorable/unfavorable is nearly 2:1 (35-19) whereas Sandack’s is 1:1 (34-33)
Matune wins among those who have heard of both (78% of sample) by 11. Matune leads with those who have an opinion of both (50% of sample) by 23.
Matune leads with conservatives by 21

- Posted by Rich Miller        


29 Comments
  1. - Big Muddy - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    Thanks Rich!


  2. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    The first liar never has a chance, but sometimes it is the lie that folks remembered best.


  3. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:04 pm:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  4. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:06 pm:

    That’s weird. I meant to say:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  5. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    LESS THAN 35. Ugh. Sorry I fail at html. Less than 35 is bad.


  6. - A proud, numerically challenged people... - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    …in the 81th District.


  7. - Chicago Cynic - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    It’s Proft. It’s a 300 sample size. I’m highly dubious of this “poll.”


  8. - dave - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Is he going to share the actual poll questions and cross tabs?


  9. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    Let’s see.

    (1)A margin of error of 5.7% means that Matune may be 5.7% too high or Sandack is 5.7% too far down. A spread of 11.4% - so it is anyone’s race. That is what you get with the sample size.
    (2) The results heading says “Breen Pihos” - does that lend a certain dubiousness to the results?
    (3) A recent trip through Downers Grove….lots of Sandack signs. Matune signs, maybe they fell down in the snow, escaped through a window or something?


  10. - Northern Will - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    Hey Dan why don’t you show the polling questions and cross tabs?


  11. - Just sayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:24 pm:

    How does a sex offender have a 2-1 fav/unfav? If that’s true of Republican Primary voters, this state deserves to stay blue and the GOP needs to be wiped out.

    Why hasn’t Dorgan, Cronin or someone demanded he get out?


  12. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    We’ll find out soon enough.


  13. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    The inherent difficulties in polling these small districts make me suspicious and the lack of specifics even more.

    That being said, these guys are a new firm and the only poll they’ve done that I could find was FL-13 where they were pretty close (43-43-7) whereas it seemed that a lot of other polls had the Dem candidate up. So, maybe they’re really good. Either way, I’m not sold.


  14. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    Though, then again, if Sandack had an internal which showed him up, I’m sure he would have released it.


  15. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    ===these guys are a new firm ===

    These guys did poling for Bob Dole.


  16. - Wumpus - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:44 pm:

    A sample size of callers from Proft’s WLS show. Every time I want to like him, he does something to make me question that effort.


  17. - Bored Chairman - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:46 pm:

    Reap the whirlwind, Mr. Proft.


  18. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:47 pm:

    -Rich-

    Frabrizo polled for Dole. This is a new firm.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/


  19. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    No comment on poll, but the firm is well established and reputable - Tony Fabrizio is a well know, reputable GOP pollster.


  20. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:53 pm:

    And, regarding the firm being new or old is not relevant, this is still a firm run by reputable and well established pollsters. My own firm went through a recent name change and structural changes, but the fact is we have been polling for nearly two decades.


  21. - Powell - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    it’s a reputable firm. one of the best. the only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample


  22. - justsayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    All conjecture. Election day is the only proof of anything. Either way, Proft is a loser on this one. Even if he bests Sandack, this race makes him look bad and will continue to make him look bad through the general. If he loses, he loses too. A dumb move to put all your eggs in Matune’s messy basket.


  23. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    Fako is correct. And there are other numbers out there. Move along.


  24. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:08 pm:

    ===The only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample ===

    I agree with that. We gave up trying on this and some other races days ago. Nobody’s answering.


  25. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    I just wonder if polling firms are finding everyone. Not that I am complaining, my cell phone has received not a single political call (polling, robo call, nada). No home phone (for about two years now) - which used to be a bit active during election years. E-mails from the campaigns I have had contact with - and a few I have not contacted. I have not missed an election in over thirty years.


  26. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:22 pm:

    The Matune fav/unfav makes me question this. But then, I question anything that comes from Profit.


  27. - Mokenavince - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    We will know in 5 days how accurate Proft’s poll is.I don’t have much faith in it.


  28. - Tom - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 5:16 pm:

    300 sample size in a legislative district primary of one party is plenty. It may be hard to get people on the phone, but it sounds like they eventually got 300 to take the poll. Ask Fako, 300 is a decent sample size.


  29. - Election Polls Results - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:07 pm:

    I read this post and take lot of information from this post.Thanks


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* On this point, I agree with Pat Quinn
* Today's number: 26.8 percent
* Bills gets 10 years for red light scheme
* Mistakes happen
* Derren and Darwin Sorrells' arrest record
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Isikoff hacking scoop criticized
* Rauner says he won't be involved in Murphy replacement
* Duckworth ridiculed for ineffectiveness as she runs new ad
* Question of the day
* Illinois prison population drops 8.7 percent in two years
* Another attempt to explain the Trump phenomenon
* Rauner schooled on school funding
* Dem calls Rep. Kay "misogynist," Kay fires back
* Falling into his own trap
* They knew the odds were stacked against them going in
* Illinois wasn't the only hacked state elections board
* Putting these pieces together will require more than just "monologuing"
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Cable TV buys
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Updates to Apple hardware this year will focus on power users
* uSens shows off new tracking sensors that aim to deliver richer experiences for mobile VR
* Walmart has Samsung Gear S3 screen protectors for sale
* Verizon’s LTE Advanced Network goes live in 461 cities
* There will be another iPhone-like device from HTC, the One A9s
* Instagram Stories diverges from Snapchat by suggesting who to follow
* The Information Commissioner’s Office doesn’t like WhatsApp’s new privacy policy

* Eaton shakes off HBP; Lawrie remains in limbo
* Hit in 57 games, win $5.6 million
* What a Knight! Fulmer hurls five perfect frames for Triple-A Charlotte
* Rodon rolls on to lead White Sox over M's
* 2 pitches, 3 outs: Sox execute efficient escape
* X-rays negative after Eaton HBP on right arm
* Rodon rolls on to lead White Sox over M's

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Governor says public should pressure lawmakers .....
* Rauner vetoes $15 wage for caregivers, expanded.....
* Rauner vetoes $15 wage for caregivers, expanded.....
* Rauner vetoes $15 wage for caregivers, expanded.....
* Rauner vetoes $15 wage for caregivers, expanded.....
* Rauner Calls On Voters To Press Lawmakers To Re.....
* Rauner vetoes $15 wage for caregivers, expanded.....
* Rauner vetoes $15 wage for caregivers, expanded.....
* Rauner vetoes $15 wage for caregivers, expanded.....
* Rauner vetoes $15 wage for caregivers, expanded.....


* Illinois bike race marred by crashes when riders hit tacks
* The Latest: Police arrest man in slaying of 3 in Indiana
* Rauner vetoes $15 wage for caregivers, expanded child care
* Illinois elections system hack prompts FBI warning to states
* 1 man charged after Illinois State Police shooting
* Man arrested in triple-slaying in northwestern Indiana home
* Ex-Chicago official gets 10 years in red-light camera case
* Illinois bills aimed to help state's most vulnerable vetoed
* Ex-Chicago official gets 10 years in red-light camera case
* University of Wisconsin-Madison is top party school in US

* New law: no pensions for new county board members
* Rauner vetoes bill raising caregivers' minimum wage
* FBI warns of possible state election-system hacks; Illinois reported breach in July
* Thirty-year-old SNAP overpayments still being collected
* Despite budget warnings from Rauner, TRS board votes to lower investment estimates
* Progress on U.S. 67 sputters due to lack of funds
* New law makes insurance companies find, pay beneficiaries
* Decatur woman can petition to become nurse under new law
* Illinois redistricting referendum won't appear on ballot
* Comptroller hopefuls argue independence from Madigan, Rauner

* United's Munoz picks American Airlines president for co-pilot
* United names American Airlines exec as president
* Mondelez drops bid for Hershey
* Abbott's deal headaches go beyond bad luck
* Clinton proposes plan to address mental health treatment


* Last chance? Obama administration proposes health law fixes
* Editorial: Better gun law might have saved Nykea Aldridge’s life
* On the bubble? Cornelius Washington looking for breakout year
* Civilian Office on Police Accountability to replace IPRA
* Bears, NFL reacts to Colin Kaepernick’s National Anthem protest
* United hires American’s No. 2 executive
* Route 66 season to feature plays about hackers and cancer
* Emanuel orders crackdown on food truck violators
* Mitchell: Quick arrest in Nykea Aldridge murder took cooperation
* Jackson: Black voters have plenty to lose with Trump


* Aldermen to Emanuel: Not so fast on police reform vote
* Huma Abedin, a top Clinton aide, is leaving husband Anthony Weiner amid new sexting scandal
* Report: Clown spotted trying to lure kids into woods in South Carolina
* Illinois emergency room visits increased after Obamacare, study says
* West can have burkinis or democracy, but not both
* Trial begins for teen accused of killing boy, father in Palatine
* Bears' Super Bowl odds slipping
* Live Q&A: Tribune investigative reporter David Kidwell on Chicago's red light camera scandal
* U.S. flag represents Kaepernick's right not to stand for national anthem
* United Airlines appoints American Airlines executive as president


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* New law: no pensions for new county board members
* Rauner vetoes bill raising caregivers' minimum wage
* FBI warns of possible state election-system hacks; Illinois reported breach in July
* Thirty-year-old SNAP overpayments still being collected
* Heather Eagleton: Ending 'step therapy' puts patients first
* Angie Muhs: The ups and downs of online comments
* Bernard Schoenburg: Davis, GOP quick to attack independent Gill
* Statehouse Insider: Do we hafta put all of that money into pensions?
* Their View: Fair maps shouldn't be victims of partisanship
* Raising awareness to end domestic violence


* Attempted murder charge for man accused of throwing tomahawk at Iroquois deputy
* Carjacking, gun charges against Urbana men dismissed
* BPD looking for whoever threw tacks during bike race
* Ryan's wrap-up: Schumacher's defense, Rauner's surprise and dog days at the pool
* HS Boys Golf: Champaign County 2016
* The Pony set for liquor license renewal: Adult use and nuisance ordinances also to be discussed at council meeting
* Convicted molester in custody
* Illini captains picked; Hylton in line to start
* Badges for Life set for this week
* Today in History 8/30/16


* Peter Cetera, Air Supply coming to Genesee
* Elgin survey delayed to spring 2017
* Walgreens, Prime Therapeutics create new pharmacy network
* First day of school in Arlington Heights District 25
* Emanuel orders crackdown on food truck violators

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Rail system closer to consolidating - Illi......
* Des Plaines Gets $11.4 Million To Purchase......

* Duckworth goes on the attack over free tra......
* Duckworth goes on the attack over free tra......
* Panel Is Asked To List Dem Rep's Accomplis......

* Stephen Hawking. Does money matter?
* An ode to Sam’s.
* Cartoon of the Day - 8/29/16 Trump Chicago shooting
* Cartoon Of The Day
* Cartoon of the Day - 8/26/16 Trump bigotry
* Millennials & Their Children Face Massive Economic Hit If Climate Change Goes Unchecked
* State Election Systems Hacked, FBI Says
* 2016 RPAC Sterling Open draws more than 70 Major Investors to Springfield
* Chicago Elected School Board Bill To Be Revised, Illinois Senate Sponsor Says
* State Election Systems Hacked, FBI Says (UPDATED)


* Statement on Redistricting Referendum
* Rauner Administration Takes Action to Help Illinoisans Find Lost Life Insurance Money
* Illinois Residents Encouraged to Register for ‘The Great ShakeOut’ Earthquake Drill - 'Drop, Cover and Hold On’ Drill Set for October 20
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Seeking Flexibility to Improve Delivery of Behavioral Health Care




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller