SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Proft claims poll shows Matune lead

Friday, Mar 14, 2014

* From Dan Proft…

Liberty Principles PAC-backed Keith Matune Opens Up a Lead on incumbent Ron Sandack

Conservative challenger Keith Matune has opened up a lead on incumbent Republican State Rep. Ron Sandack entering the final weekend before the Republican Primary Election on Tuesday, March 18.

Over the course of the last 7 weeks, Matune has steadily risen in the polls as voters in the 81th District have gotten to know him and to evaluate him in comparison to Sandack, including through communications in district (mail, phones, TV, online) produced by Liberty Principles PAC.

The survey was commissioned by Liberty Principles PAC and conducted by the Florida-based polling firm of Fabrizio Lee (www.fabriziolee.com).

Sandack-Matune survey
DATE: March 11-12
Sample: 300 Likely GOP primary voters
Margin of Error: +/- 5.7%

    Matune 37
    Sandack 31

When I first surveyed this race on January 21-22, Sandack led 32-16. When I next surveyed the race on March 2-3, Sandack led 31-22. Now Matune has opened up a lead outside the margin of error.

- Dan Proft, Chairman, Liberty Principles PAC

NOTES:
Matune’s favorable/unfavorable is nearly 2:1 (35-19) whereas Sandack’s is 1:1 (34-33)
Matune wins among those who have heard of both (78% of sample) by 11. Matune leads with those who have an opinion of both (50% of sample) by 23.
Matune leads with conservatives by 21

- Posted by Rich Miller        


29 Comments
  1. - Big Muddy - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    Thanks Rich!


  2. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    The first liar never has a chance, but sometimes it is the lie that folks remembered best.


  3. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:04 pm:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  4. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:06 pm:

    That’s weird. I meant to say:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  5. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    LESS THAN 35. Ugh. Sorry I fail at html. Less than 35 is bad.


  6. - A proud, numerically challenged people... - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    …in the 81th District.


  7. - Chicago Cynic - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    It’s Proft. It’s a 300 sample size. I’m highly dubious of this “poll.”


  8. - dave - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Is he going to share the actual poll questions and cross tabs?


  9. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    Let’s see.

    (1)A margin of error of 5.7% means that Matune may be 5.7% too high or Sandack is 5.7% too far down. A spread of 11.4% - so it is anyone’s race. That is what you get with the sample size.
    (2) The results heading says “Breen Pihos” - does that lend a certain dubiousness to the results?
    (3) A recent trip through Downers Grove….lots of Sandack signs. Matune signs, maybe they fell down in the snow, escaped through a window or something?


  10. - Northern Will - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    Hey Dan why don’t you show the polling questions and cross tabs?


  11. - Just sayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:24 pm:

    How does a sex offender have a 2-1 fav/unfav? If that’s true of Republican Primary voters, this state deserves to stay blue and the GOP needs to be wiped out.

    Why hasn’t Dorgan, Cronin or someone demanded he get out?


  12. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    We’ll find out soon enough.


  13. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    The inherent difficulties in polling these small districts make me suspicious and the lack of specifics even more.

    That being said, these guys are a new firm and the only poll they’ve done that I could find was FL-13 where they were pretty close (43-43-7) whereas it seemed that a lot of other polls had the Dem candidate up. So, maybe they’re really good. Either way, I’m not sold.


  14. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    Though, then again, if Sandack had an internal which showed him up, I’m sure he would have released it.


  15. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    ===these guys are a new firm ===

    These guys did poling for Bob Dole.


  16. - Wumpus - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:44 pm:

    A sample size of callers from Proft’s WLS show. Every time I want to like him, he does something to make me question that effort.


  17. - Bored Chairman - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:46 pm:

    Reap the whirlwind, Mr. Proft.


  18. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:47 pm:

    -Rich-

    Frabrizo polled for Dole. This is a new firm.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/


  19. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    No comment on poll, but the firm is well established and reputable - Tony Fabrizio is a well know, reputable GOP pollster.


  20. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:53 pm:

    And, regarding the firm being new or old is not relevant, this is still a firm run by reputable and well established pollsters. My own firm went through a recent name change and structural changes, but the fact is we have been polling for nearly two decades.


  21. - Powell - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    it’s a reputable firm. one of the best. the only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample


  22. - justsayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    All conjecture. Election day is the only proof of anything. Either way, Proft is a loser on this one. Even if he bests Sandack, this race makes him look bad and will continue to make him look bad through the general. If he loses, he loses too. A dumb move to put all your eggs in Matune’s messy basket.


  23. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    Fako is correct. And there are other numbers out there. Move along.


  24. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:08 pm:

    ===The only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample ===

    I agree with that. We gave up trying on this and some other races days ago. Nobody’s answering.


  25. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    I just wonder if polling firms are finding everyone. Not that I am complaining, my cell phone has received not a single political call (polling, robo call, nada). No home phone (for about two years now) - which used to be a bit active during election years. E-mails from the campaigns I have had contact with - and a few I have not contacted. I have not missed an election in over thirty years.


  26. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:22 pm:

    The Matune fav/unfav makes me question this. But then, I question anything that comes from Profit.


  27. - Mokenavince - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    We will know in 5 days how accurate Proft’s poll is.I don’t have much faith in it.


  28. - Tom - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 5:16 pm:

    300 sample size in a legislative district primary of one party is plenty. It may be hard to get people on the phone, but it sounds like they eventually got 300 to take the poll. Ask Fako, 300 is a decent sample size.


  29. - Election Polls Results - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:07 pm:

    I read this post and take lot of information from this post.Thanks


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Raters react to pension ruling
* Caption contest!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Good news and bad news
* What's Madigan's agenda?
* Today's quotable
* Chicago filing deadline roundup
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Question of the day
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Amazon Fire Phone Gets Another Fire Sale: $199 Unlocked
        * OnePlus One out in India, OP officially partners with Amazon.in
        * The Week in iOS Accessories: Vintage iPad stands and an iPhone scavenger hunt
        * Verizon offers free Wi-Fi, mobile data, and more to weary Thanksgiving travelers
        * Run with us: Turkey Trot with Track Runner
        * Never miss a credit card reward again with Wallaby for iOS
        * Hush lets you enjoy silence in comfort even in the midst of noise

        * Better Diary Makes it Easy to Track and Review Your Journal
        * Samung May Supply Apple Watch Parts
        * 'The Pages Project' brings the beauty of physical books online
        * Study Last Year's Holiday Deals to Find Better Deals This Year
        * Vloggers told to label paid-for videos before people click on them
        * Skype Update Brings Picture In Picture View To Android Smartphones
        * Nexus 9 Keyboard Folio Case Available At Google Play Store for $129

        * White Sox introduce Adam LaRoche and their plans for him
        * White Sox plan for contention a work in progress
        * White Sox officially announce LaRoche deal
        * Red Sox seize offseason driver's seat with signings
        * White Sox officially announce LaRoche deal
        * White Sox land LaRoche with two-year deal
        * Family adversity didn't deter prospect Danish

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * BC-AP Sports Digest..
        * Guest View: Strong ethics reform would pay long.....
        * Statehouse staffing is down, but it’s not all d.....
        * Canucks honor late coach Pat Quinn before game..
        * Food manufacturer expands in Chicago suburbs..
        * 2 credit houses take no major action on Illinois..


        * Deere dips on shaky outlook for fiscal 2015
        * Protests against Ferguson decision grow across US
        * Ferguson protesters leave Chicago mayor's office
        * Trial set for Chicago man accused of killing son
        * Washington still focused on tornado recovery
        * 2 credit houses take no major action on Illinois
        * Illinois man pleads guilty in child porn case
        * Illinois farmers winding down harvest
        * Illinois suspends Ebola hotline as interest fades
        * Obama awards Illinois' Mikva the Medal of Freedom

        * State begins accepting fracking applications
        * Debt rating agencies weigh in on state pension ruling
        * Lisa Madigan to ask Illinois Supreme Court to consider pensions
        * Rauner tackles transition agenda
        * Attorney general warns of immigration scams
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court next
        * State to refund $60 million in retiree health care money
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court likely
        * Illinois pension case likely headed to high court
        * Judge: Pension ruling to come Friday

        * Ferguson protesters leave Chicago mayor's office
        * How Brad of Brad's Deals became the king of e-coupons
        * Bin 36 leaving River North after 15-year run
        * Watch Hebru Brantley paint an exclusive commission for Crain's 2014 40 Under 40
        * Obama's remarks about Ferguson


        * Obama guidance, press schedule Nov. 26, 2014. Turkey pardon
        * Off Message: Chicago election preview
        * City needs to put its house in order in protecting tenants
        * Rauner getting a fixer-upper: governor’s mansion
        * Obama and Cupich meet for the first time, discuss immigration
        * ‘Porgy’ star: Opera is fini if fat lady keeps singing
        * Obama in Chicago: On Ferguson, Immigration. Transcript
        * Finding food for hope in Ferguson
        * City needs to put its house in order in protecting tenants
        * Emanuel, Claypool heap each other with praise at City Club


        * Police search for missing South Shore man last seen month ago
        * 4 men hurt in separate shootings
        * City Hall sit-in morphs into march along Michigan Avenue
        * Former Chicago-area homebuilder gets prison for failing to pay taxes
        * Obama visits Chicago to tout immigration action, cites Ferguson controversy
        * FAA studying military-style air-traffic backup system, Sen. Kirk says
        * Bartlett man says at sentencing hearing he shot at car to protect family
        * Metra trains stopped in Aurora because of suspicious package
        * DuPage Co. OKs budget that reduces spending


        * Pension Ruling "Credit Negative," But No Ratings Change
        * Phoenix Center Strives To Connect With Transgender Community
        * Tim Landis: Foreclosure Sales, CIPS Icehouse and Heritage River Trail
        * Part Timers & Manufacturing in Illinois Feeling a Slow Economic Recovery
        * Notes From Ferguson: A QA With St. Louis Public Radio's Rachel Lippmann
        * Notes From Ferguson: Q & A With St. Louis Public Radio's Rachel Lippmann
        * Disbelief in Hammond after accused cops are reinstated
        * Disbelief by some in Hammond after accused cops are reinstated
        * Grand jury: No indictment for Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson
        * Madigan Says Court Could Rule On Pensions In January


        * Michael Gerson: The big ‘but’ on immigration
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 26, 2014
        * State begins accepting fracking applications
        * Debt rating agencies weigh in on state pension ruling
        * Our Opinion: Another big weekend for football fans
        * Mary Auchstetter: The true story of Grain Belt Express
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 25, 2014
        * Lisa Madigan to ask Illinois Supreme Court to consider pensions
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 24, 2014
        * Our Opinion: Illiana project too risky for tapped-out Illinois


        * Parks available for new high school?
        * GOP backs Kibler for county board chair
        * Bad situation gets even worse
        * Racist tweet puts school on high alert
        * Murphysboro candidates gearing up for April election
        * Area history, Nov. 26, 2014
        * Flick: The epic of a changing Thanksgiving -- what's NOT open?
        * Artist draws more international acclaim, this time for 'Computers Watching Movies'
        * John Frayne: Baroque music invades Smith Hall
        * Tom Kacich: Expert offers opinion on Lincoln museum: Make it separate


        * 'Penguins of Madagascar' hatch kid-friendly plot
        * Suburban police take lessons on diversity, communication from Ferguson
        * Tip, 'thank you' note lead to drug charges against man
        * Medical marijuana dispensary moves forward in Rolling Meadows
        * Dawn Patrol: Thanksgiving travel tips; Man gets 24 years in fatal crash

        * US Republican congressman to work for bipa...
        * Reps Gabbard, Schock Introduce Resolution ...
        * US Rep. Gregg Harper (R-MS) to Serve as Vi...
        * Aaron Schock really likes music awards sho...
        * GOP lawmaker: Obama has 'gone rogue' - The...
        * Could anyone beat Hillary Clinton? Yes, of...
        * Clinton: Obama immigration effort 'histori...
        * There must be 94 ways to fix the budget, p...
        * Hennepin Steel Mill finally sold - SteelGuru
        * Climate deniers need the boot - Idaho Moun...

        * Durbin, Reed Lead 40 U.S. Senators In Back......
        * U.S. Senate to Hold Civil Rights Hearing A......

        * FAA studying military-style air-traffic ba......

        * Google Maps Says Avoid Driving Wednesday Before Thanksgiving
        * Q the Eye/11.26.14
        * Kelly to get more attention as observer than he would have got as candidate
        * Alright back to #Ferguson
        * Workers protest unfair wages at CD One Price Cleaners
        * Activists End Peaceful City Hall Sit-In
        * The Plot to Burn Chicago
        * How the Civil War Created Thanksgiving
        * Supreme Court fills two vacancies in 1st Subcircuit
        * My experience at the DMV


        * Governor Quinn Statement on Abner Mikva Receiving Nation’s Highest Civilian Honor
        * Department of Insurance Announces Multi-State Settlement with Symetra Life Insurance and Symetra National Life Insurance Company - Illinois will share part of a $1.2 million penalty against Symetra Life regarding Life Insurance policies
        * Avoid Foodborne Illness This Holiday Season
        * Dept on Aging Observes Family Caregivers Awareness Month by Reminding about Resources to Assist - Administers the Family Caregiver Support Program
        * State Seeks Public Input on Strategy to Reduce Phosphorous and Nitrogen Pollution in Mississippi River Basin - Draft Strategy Aims to Have Agricultural and Municipal Interests Work Together to Improve Water Quality




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller