SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Proft claims poll shows Matune lead

Friday, Mar 14, 2014

* From Dan Proft…

Liberty Principles PAC-backed Keith Matune Opens Up a Lead on incumbent Ron Sandack

Conservative challenger Keith Matune has opened up a lead on incumbent Republican State Rep. Ron Sandack entering the final weekend before the Republican Primary Election on Tuesday, March 18.

Over the course of the last 7 weeks, Matune has steadily risen in the polls as voters in the 81th District have gotten to know him and to evaluate him in comparison to Sandack, including through communications in district (mail, phones, TV, online) produced by Liberty Principles PAC.

The survey was commissioned by Liberty Principles PAC and conducted by the Florida-based polling firm of Fabrizio Lee (www.fabriziolee.com).

Sandack-Matune survey
DATE: March 11-12
Sample: 300 Likely GOP primary voters
Margin of Error: +/- 5.7%

    Matune 37
    Sandack 31

When I first surveyed this race on January 21-22, Sandack led 32-16. When I next surveyed the race on March 2-3, Sandack led 31-22. Now Matune has opened up a lead outside the margin of error.

- Dan Proft, Chairman, Liberty Principles PAC

NOTES:
Matune’s favorable/unfavorable is nearly 2:1 (35-19) whereas Sandack’s is 1:1 (34-33)
Matune wins among those who have heard of both (78% of sample) by 11. Matune leads with those who have an opinion of both (50% of sample) by 23.
Matune leads with conservatives by 21

- Posted by Rich Miller        


29 Comments
  1. - Big Muddy - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    Thanks Rich!


  2. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    The first liar never has a chance, but sometimes it is the lie that folks remembered best.


  3. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:04 pm:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  4. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:06 pm:

    That’s weird. I meant to say:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  5. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    LESS THAN 35. Ugh. Sorry I fail at html. Less than 35 is bad.


  6. - A proud, numerically challenged people... - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    …in the 81th District.


  7. - Chicago Cynic - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    It’s Proft. It’s a 300 sample size. I’m highly dubious of this “poll.”


  8. - dave - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Is he going to share the actual poll questions and cross tabs?


  9. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    Let’s see.

    (1)A margin of error of 5.7% means that Matune may be 5.7% too high or Sandack is 5.7% too far down. A spread of 11.4% - so it is anyone’s race. That is what you get with the sample size.
    (2) The results heading says “Breen Pihos” - does that lend a certain dubiousness to the results?
    (3) A recent trip through Downers Grove….lots of Sandack signs. Matune signs, maybe they fell down in the snow, escaped through a window or something?


  10. - Northern Will - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    Hey Dan why don’t you show the polling questions and cross tabs?


  11. - Just sayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:24 pm:

    How does a sex offender have a 2-1 fav/unfav? If that’s true of Republican Primary voters, this state deserves to stay blue and the GOP needs to be wiped out.

    Why hasn’t Dorgan, Cronin or someone demanded he get out?


  12. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    We’ll find out soon enough.


  13. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    The inherent difficulties in polling these small districts make me suspicious and the lack of specifics even more.

    That being said, these guys are a new firm and the only poll they’ve done that I could find was FL-13 where they were pretty close (43-43-7) whereas it seemed that a lot of other polls had the Dem candidate up. So, maybe they’re really good. Either way, I’m not sold.


  14. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    Though, then again, if Sandack had an internal which showed him up, I’m sure he would have released it.


  15. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    ===these guys are a new firm ===

    These guys did poling for Bob Dole.


  16. - Wumpus - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:44 pm:

    A sample size of callers from Proft’s WLS show. Every time I want to like him, he does something to make me question that effort.


  17. - Bored Chairman - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:46 pm:

    Reap the whirlwind, Mr. Proft.


  18. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:47 pm:

    -Rich-

    Frabrizo polled for Dole. This is a new firm.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/


  19. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    No comment on poll, but the firm is well established and reputable - Tony Fabrizio is a well know, reputable GOP pollster.


  20. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:53 pm:

    And, regarding the firm being new or old is not relevant, this is still a firm run by reputable and well established pollsters. My own firm went through a recent name change and structural changes, but the fact is we have been polling for nearly two decades.


  21. - Powell - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    it’s a reputable firm. one of the best. the only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample


  22. - justsayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    All conjecture. Election day is the only proof of anything. Either way, Proft is a loser on this one. Even if he bests Sandack, this race makes him look bad and will continue to make him look bad through the general. If he loses, he loses too. A dumb move to put all your eggs in Matune’s messy basket.


  23. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    Fako is correct. And there are other numbers out there. Move along.


  24. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:08 pm:

    ===The only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample ===

    I agree with that. We gave up trying on this and some other races days ago. Nobody’s answering.


  25. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    I just wonder if polling firms are finding everyone. Not that I am complaining, my cell phone has received not a single political call (polling, robo call, nada). No home phone (for about two years now) - which used to be a bit active during election years. E-mails from the campaigns I have had contact with - and a few I have not contacted. I have not missed an election in over thirty years.


  26. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:22 pm:

    The Matune fav/unfav makes me question this. But then, I question anything that comes from Profit.


  27. - Mokenavince - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    We will know in 5 days how accurate Proft’s poll is.I don’t have much faith in it.


  28. - Tom - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 5:16 pm:

    300 sample size in a legislative district primary of one party is plenty. It may be hard to get people on the phone, but it sounds like they eventually got 300 to take the poll. Ask Fako, 300 is a decent sample size.


  29. - Election Polls Results - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:07 pm:

    I read this post and take lot of information from this post.Thanks


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Yeah, I know the feeling
* When "nonprofit" means "highly profitable"
* 50 UIUC students disrupt Rauner visit
* Zopp tapped to be deputy mayor
* Question of the day
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's events
* It's all about the 1 percent
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Utility companies behaving badly
* Proft warns "quislings"
* Stopgap can't stop massive CSU layoffs
* Report: CTU could delay strike
* Reasons for hope?
* Naïve cynicism and Illinois
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* History made on the South Side
* Meep-meep
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* [Video] Unboxing the YI Home Camera 2
* New HTC wearable could release in June
* [APK Download] Google Keyboard gets a major update in version 5
* Galaxy Note 6 hardware changes, LG fingerprint display & more – Pocketnow Daily
* iPhone 4s Inspired Fitbit to Redesign Fitness Trackers With Bluetooth 4.0 Support in 2011
* NYC video maven Casey Neistat launches vlogging app Beme
* John Chen says BlackBerry hardware unit close to making money

* White Sox to celebrate Honorary Bat Girl on Sunday
* Hit in 57 games, win $5.6 million
* Inbox: Latos the White Sox biggest surprise?
* South Side Sox Mock MLB Draft - First Edition
* Following up: No explanation yet for triple play that wasn't
* Podcast: Are these White Sox destined for greatness?
* Battle of Sox to begin with Quintana-Wright

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Illinois panel again urges medical marijuana ex.....
* Illinois Medical Cannabis Board Approves New He.....
* Progressive tax vote imminent: Time for you to .....
* The Illinois GOP senator holding the cards..
* Medical marijuana board rips Rauner’s rejections..
* Rauner: Graduated tax would be bad for the state..
* Illinois lawmakers must act on amendments this .....
* Optimistic Rauner mum on what it will take to e.....
* Gov. Bruce Rauner emphasizes his opposition to .....


* Marion police to 29 get new squad car cameras
* U of Illinois-Springfield to build first student union
* Chicago light pole falls on 3 girls, injuring 1
* 9 years after Chief's end, U of Illinois looks for mascot
* Illinois panel again urges medical marijuana expansion
* Art group dedicates Carl Sandburg statue to Galesburg
* Suit: Illinois law restricting child sex offenders too vague
* Illinois construction worker dies weeks after explosion
* Protests target racism, debt at Southern Illinois University
* Illinois dedicates stretch of highway to fallen soldier

* Medicaid policy may deny access to HIV medication
* Price, demand driving Illinois' hog farm expansion
* Rauner: Graduated tax would be bad for the state
* Suit: Illinois law restricting child sex offenders too vague
* Medical marijuana panel meets to evaluate 15 new conditions
* National Wrestling Hall of Fame revokes Hastert's awards
* For some, Chicago State University offers hope
* For some, Chicago State a flawed but final shot at a degree
* Constitutional amendments face a deadline this week
* Local groups counting on stopgap funding plan

* Chicago: Stop legal fight to look at new Lucas Museum site
* Rush, Cigna hatch deal to boost patient care
* Kirkland & Ellis to offer wellness training to all U.S. lawyers
* Exelon, you're paying the CEO too much: shareholders
* Alere says it rejected Abbott's request to end acquisition


* Two teens wounded — one critically — in West Englewood shooting
* Cruz fights for survival as Trump eyes Indiana knockout
* Competition Matters: A look at Bears’ roster battles after draft
* Chicago’s Alinea, Curtis Duffy win 2016 James Beard Awards
* Cub notes: Theo extension update, Arrieta award, eyes on Lincecum
* Boy, 14, critically wounded in Back of the Yards shooting
* Cubs’ Heyward sidelined by right wrist soreness
* Brown: Ald. Smith says Airbnb-type services a threat to Lincoln Park
* Suit: Illinois sex offender statutes too vague, unconstitutional
* Illinois panel again urges medical marijuana expansion


* Emanuel makes moves on homelessness; critics still boo
* Cubs hope Jason Heyward can return Wednesday from sore wrist
* As next big thing, Cubs in shoes that Pirates once wore
* Cubs pick up where they left off in Pittsburgh with 7-2 victory
* Alinea wins outstanding restaurant in James Beard Awards
* College of DuPage picks new president with 'focus on restoring the public trust'
* Ex-49er Dana Stubblefield charged with raping disabled woman
* 14-year-old boy killed in South Side shooting
* Ex-Chicago meteorologist Ginger Zee stuns on 'Dancing with the Stars'
* Monday's recap: Cubs 7, Pirates 2


* Their View: A sigh of relief that Chicago didn't get Olympics
* Their View: Be aware of commuters on two wheels
* Medicaid policy may deny access to HIV medication
* Kathleen Parker: Trump, in his own words
* Price, demand driving Illinois' hog farm expansion
* Rauner: Graduated tax would be bad for the state
* Bernard Schoenburg: Speaker Madigan on phone for Sangamon County Democrats fundraiser
* Suit: Illinois law restricting child sex offenders too vague
* Medical marijuana panel meets to evaluate 15 new conditions
* National Wrestling Hall of Fame revokes Hastert's awards


* Veteran Storm knocks off young Tigers
* Area prep statistics: Boys' tennis (May 3)
* More home cookin' for men's tennis?
* UI roundup: Hayes takes league hurler award
* Walton glad he stuck with Illini
* HS Baseball: Centennial vs. M-S
* PODCAST: News Gazette Sports Page 05-02-16
* Jury quick to find Kelley guilty
* Cop's camp demands speedy trial
* May 4 Illinois basketball chat


* Retired vice admiral named new College of DuPage president
* COD acknowledges Open Meetings Act violation
* Baseball: Jacobs nips St. Charles East
* Boys golf: Reynolds will tee it up at Northern Iowa
* Buffalo Grove woman shot on Wisconsin highway

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Sen. Durbin sees Cairo public housing negl......
* In Cairo, Durbin calls for changes to stat......
* Franklin County leaders look for federal m......
* Expanded I-57 interchange gets support fro......

* Trump could be a real drag on GOP: Here ar......

* Sheridan Road Fixer-Upper: Mansion On The Market
* Homeless People, Advocates Skeptical Of Chicago Housing Pilot Program For 'Tent City' Residents
* Homeless Chicagoans, Advocates Skeptical Of Housing Pilot Program For 'Tent City' Residents
* Taxpayer-funded financial aid for immigrant college tuition heads to IL House
* 300 Chicago State University Workers Laid Off Amid State Budget Stalemate
* Meeting On Chicago's Pilot Program To Help The Homeless
* University Of Illinois Faculty Union Ends Strike
* Fight For $15 Takes Battle For A Living Wage To Chicago Suburbs
* Evanston Fight for $15 protest 2
* Evanston Fight for $15 protest


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller