SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Slight uptick detected

Monday, Mar 17, 2014

* As I told you last week, We Ask America is monitoring who is voting early and absentee in the Republican primary.

Last week didn’t show much if any actual uptick in Democratic involvement. Independents were down six points from 2010, and Republicans and Democrats were up three points each as a share of the total.

As explained before, a Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008. Independents are those who have not voted in a partisan primary since 2008. The State Board of Elections’ voter file is matched up with the names of people who’ve already voted.

The final numbers for early and absentees are showing a little something, however…

So, the final early/absentee tally is more Democratic than four years ago, but it’s also more Republican and less independent.

And while there are slightly more Democrats voting than normal, after accounting for the drop in independents. it’s only about 800 votes out of almost 78,000 cast so far. At least, that’s my read.

Keep in mind this is only early and absentee voting. Things could be different tomorrow.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Mighty M. Mouse - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:54 pm:

    I’m sure it must be my inadequacy but I tried and have not been able to understand your columns in the absence of some kind of explanatory headings.

  2. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:56 pm:

    What is the purpose of listing “Independents?” Illinois has a closed primary system, so voters need to declare themselves by party.

  3. - Northern Will - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:58 pm:

    Can you imagine what will happen if unions turn out enough Dem’s to give Dillard the nomination? If voter turnout is around 850-900k things might get interesting tomorrow night…

  4. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:59 pm:

    For the 4 GOP Guv candidates, and actually for all candidates looking at absentee ballots in general;

    Unless you know YOUR “Pluses” voted early, took absentees, abc can count how many you have in the “bank”, this is Folly to the actual impact it will have on your actual campaign.

    Go against a good precinct captain and watch the gloating of 30, 40… 50 absentee ballots, and the captain knowing 95% of those are his “Pluses”

    What we see is a …trend, but nothing points to anyone driving the early voting to any of those 4 specifically from the campaign operations, so any and all the four could be both “exited” and “scared” by these events.

  5. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:01 pm:

    ===What is the purpose of listing “Independents?===


    If you saw last week’s post, it’s all explained.

  6. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:02 pm:

    Sorry, I did not read that post. What date was it? I will go back and check.

  7. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    ===if unions turn out enough Dem’s to give Dillard the nomination?===

    As explained earlier today, at minimum they’d need to turn out 126,000 new GOP primary voters to win.

    Ever try to completely change the face of a partisan primary? Ever try to do that in a few weeks? Ever try to do that for a guy who isn’t all that beloved to begin with?

    I want what you’re smoking.

  8. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    Okay, I see. Anyone who has not cast a primary vote since 2008.

  9. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    Well it makes perfect sense that Republican would be up a bit and Independent down because of the high number of Independents in 2010 who pulled GOP ballots. Those who took part in the primary 4 years ago and are voting again would be Republican now. I would think that if you never voted in primaries before 2010 and were compelled to vote in the GOP despite a close race for the DEM nomination for governor and another race for the DEM senate race, you were motivated at least in part by the conservative groundswell of 2010.

    Either way, no reason, as of yet, to believe in a Dillard miracle.

  10. - Dwarf - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:13 pm:

    I wonder if the increase has more to do with people getting comfortable with early voting? I’ve seen some of the early voter and absentee lists in my area and they are traditional D and R voters who just won’t be coming into the polling place tomorrow. I haven’t seen a trend of new voters or traditional Rs or Ds switching ballot requests. Then again, I’m not from DuPage or Will either.

  11. - Adam Smith - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    As noted, this all comes down to real numbers. As WAA noted in their tracker this morning, Dillard needs at least 125,000 dems to cross over and all vote for him to be able to make up for the 20-point deficit he is showing consistently in multiple recent samples.

    To put that in perspective, the IEA has 130,000 active members. So they all must vote in the GOP primary and must vote exactly the same just to get Dillard in the hunt. That’s not even taking into account that perhaps 15-20% of IEA members are Republican voters already.

    But maybe the polls are wrong…even if Rauner’s lead is half what the polls have shown, Dillard must have a perfect GOTV operation and get an unprecedented crossover and he still comes up short.

    But judging by the last minute media buy I’m seeing today, Dillard won’t have a dime left by 7 pm tomorrow.

  12. - lake county democrat - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:29 pm:

    I wouldn’t presume ALL the crossover Dem voters in the GOP primary are going to Dillard. There’s nothing to vote for in most Dem races and some suburban Dems may be voting for Rauner. I don’t put a miracle past the unions (I gave it 15% - much higher than most - in Rich’s poll last week) but I’m not seeing it.

  13. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:30 pm:

    In Cook County, there were only 794 fewer early votes cast then during the 2010 primary. About 46% of the ballots were Republican this year, up from about 31% four years ago.

  14. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:37 pm:

    I’d be surprised if much of the Dem and union crossover vote will happen tomorrow. It’s more likely that someone who was crossing over for Dillard would’ve done it at a more convenient early voting opportunity.

    I think the biggest crossover factor tomorrow will be ambulatory seniors who are public retirees. They have plenty of time on their hands and tend to like the election day voting experience.

  15. - IL Champ - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:45 pm:

    Further review nailed it. Unless we are seeing a trend of increased significantly increased early voting, Democrats ae pulling Republican ballots. This gives Dillard some, although marginal, room to work. I think the Edgar fly around moves the needle a little his way. The press has been incredible and people love Edgar.

  16. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    === I think the Edgar fly around moves the needle a little his way. The press has been incredible and people love Edgar.===

    People indeed love Edgar. People have shown they could care less who Edgar himself loves. Just sayin’.

  17. - Dave Fako - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:51 pm:

    UPR - Actually Illinois has an open primary where anybody can vote in any primary, no party registration etc. is required (although you can only pull one partisan ballot in the election). The “D”, “R” and “I” and a few other designations are actually just based on past primary voting behavior, not registration and has been explained an “Independent” on the Illinois voter file really = a registered voters who has / regular votes in general elections but has not voted in a partisan primary. The I voters real behavior varies depedning on where you are - some are clearly D and R while some are true Independents.

    The reality is some primary voters are pathological D / R primary voters even if they skip a few here and there, a smaller number go back and forth between both parties and a few I’s jump into the partisan contents (and once they do they get a partisan designation, and lose their I label, like it or not). Virtually all primary election campaigns that are contingent upon getting “I” voters or the opposite party primary voters to vote in their primary to win are doomed to failure.

  18. - VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 4:43 pm:

    No sign of cavalry - some claim to be seeing something like a dust cloud ahead however. Looks too small to make a difference any which way.

    The GOP fort looks like it will be forced to open its gates tomorrow night.

  19. - Excessively Rabid - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 4:51 pm:

    My wife is planning on voting in the GOP primary - gotta go, there’s a pig flying around the back yard.

  20. - Downstate - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 5:24 pm:

    70 year old family member, lifelong Democrat announced they are voting in the Republican primary for the first time in their life.

    They will be canceling out a union vote.

  21. - railrat - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 5:36 pm:

    when 130,000 crossover’s occur because the ” labor leaders” spent their memberships “voluntary” PAC funds” for fear of a Rauner… Satan will be at Gander Mountain for artic gear…and even better if by chance it did occur Satan would be frozen solid if those “labor leaders” didn’t throw Dillard under the bus for Quinn in the general..

  22. - Oh Come On! - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:12 pm:

    @Dave Fuko:

    As a result of a SCOTUS decision that came to be the case in the Seventies. Now, one can switch party affiliations in each primary (not permitted years ago without a twenty-three month waiting period), but what I was referring to is the continued process that requires every primary voter to publicly declare their party preference when requesting a ballot and having that request noted of record. There are other states where such a decision is made by the voter in the privacy of the polling booth.

    Thousands of Illnoisans choose to skip primaries because they do not want to publicly declare their party and have their choice recorded. In the bad old days, Chicagoans equated declaring Republican with the future refusal or lessening of city services, etc.

    The IEA sent out notices telling members that asking for a Republican ballot tomorrow will not obligate them to support the Republican Party in the future.

  23. - Oh Come On! - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:14 pm:

    what was being referred to is the continued process that requires every primary voter to publicly declare their party preference

  24. - RNUG - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:24 pm:

    This “I” will be pulling an “R” ballot tomorrow and won’t be voting for Baron von Carhart. Over dinner tonight I was talking with my mother-in-law (lifelong “D”) who plans to pull an “R” tomorrow; never thought I would see the day but it has arrived.

    I still think it is a long shot for Dillard but the anecdotal evidence is adding up.

  25. - DuPage Rep - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:43 pm:

    ==I still think it is a long shot for Dillard but the anecdotal evidence is adding up.==
    Fly on you crazy diamond.

  26. - DuPage Rep - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:45 pm:

    Sorry, shine on

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows
* Unclear on the concept
* *** LIVE COVERAGE *** Gov. Rauner press conference
* Zopp whacked as she prepares to air TV ads
* *** UPDATED x1 - Not exactly limo levels *** Should voter registration be easier or tougher?
* Rate the Alvarez kick-off video
* Face facts and stop playing the victim
* Joe Tybor
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...







Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* Google drones appear in FAA database
* Battle of the Beasts: Nexus 6P vs Nexus 5X vs Nexus 6
* Crowdfunding opens for BLOCKS modular smartwatch
* Facebook testing out Shopping feature on mobile 
* Andrew Bell’s Warty Witch figurine is coming next week
* Sprint expands its Direct 2 You coverage to seven new locations in the United States
* Sony releases Android Marshmallow, adds Xperia Z5 to Open Device program

* The 10 best White Sox games of 2015
* Curtain rises on prospect-packed Fall League
* Podcast: Pitchers and Catchers review
* Chase Utley's takeout "slide" could be the tipping point
* First White Sox bench coach candidate emerges
* Hahn feels White Sox fanbase's frustration
* Sox to rely on improvement of core in 2016


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* UPDATE 1-Illinois governor eyes sale of landmar.....
* Rauner wants to sell downtown Chicago state off.....
* Rauner, Democrats eventually must face reality .....
* Illinois governor will sell government building.....
* Illinois governor will sell government building.....
* Illinois governor will sell government building.....
* Illinois governor will sell government building.....
* Governor Rauner Wants To Sell The Thompson Cent.....
* Rauner wants to sell downtown Chicago state off.....
* Rauner wants to sell downtown Chicago state off.....

* Rauner wants to sell downtown Chicago state office building
* School won't comply with order regarding transgender student
* McHenry teachers union approves contract to end strike
* EXCHANGE: Churches work together to preserve historic home
* Public can see Stanley Cup in Millennium Park on Wednesday
* Coalition urges Illinois communities to plant oak trees
* Automatic Illinois voter registration expected in committee
* $5M grant to ISU will aid young people in Champaign County
* Former reporter and Illinois Supreme Court spokesman dies
* Illinois agency investigating death of 1-year-old girl

* Rauner wants to sell state's Thompson Center in downtown Chicago
* Newest state senator backs Rauner's Turnaround Agenda
* Judge: Class-action status allowed in deaf inmates' lawsuit
* WSEC-TV's CapitolView: The continuing state budget impasse
* NightReach program's impact hampered by state budget impasse
* FOIA issue of emails on private devices goes back to court
* State criticized for approach to problem gambling
* For Illinois players, $1.6 billion in losses in three years
* More than 400 press passes issued for this year's Illinois State Fair
* Rauner names new chair of Illinois Historic Preservation Agency board

* Big 3 airlines flexing their political muscle in Washington
* Byrd-Bennett pleads guilty in kickbacks scheme
* Conde Nast acquires Pitchfork
* First look: Renaissance Chicago's new terrace bar
* Why Chicago should care about the Big Beer mega-merger

* Blackhawks fourth-liners embrace shutdown role
* Claypool outlines steps to prevent another Byrd-Bennett scandal
* Thompson Center to go up for sale: report
* Clinton slams Trump in front of his Vegas casino
* Byrd-Bennett back in spotlight Tuesday — for expected guilty plea
* Byrd-Bennett pleads guilty to fraud
* Cubs offer aldermen playoff tickets at face value
* Long road takes Ryan Garbutt to the ultimate hockey destination
* Brown: Time running out to fix Council inspector general mess
* Bike park opens in West Loop

* Rauner looking to sell Thompson Center, the state building in Chicago's Loop
* Pittsburgh investigating officer's slam takedown of Cubs fan
* Supreme Court decision on Highland Park's gun law on hold
* Counterfeit Cubs tickets burn some fans
* Police: Suspects crash car after shooting 2 men in Bronzeville
* 'I'm not sure if she's lying about being stabbed and slapped and bleeding'
* Morning Spin: Obama comes home for Oct. 27 political fundraiser
* Alinea closes for renovation Jan. 1, plans pop-ups in Madrid and Miami
* Kane County sheriff's deputies search for two carjacking suspects
* Ex-Blackhawk Patrick Sharp rents out Lakeview mansion for $10,500 a month

* Rauner wants to sell state's Thompson Center in downtown Chicago
* Newest state senator backs Rauner's Turnaround Agenda
* Judge: Class-action status allowed in deaf inmates' lawsuit
* Kathleen Parker: Don't do it, Paul Ryan
* WSEC-TV's CapitolView: The continuing state budget impasse
* NightReach program's impact hampered by state budget impasse
* FOIA issue of emails on private devices goes back to court
* Scott Gauvin: Citizens need more say in CWLP's future
* State criticized for approach to problem gambling
* For Illinois players, $1.6 billion in losses in three years

* 10-13-15 On The Money
* 10-13-15 Penny for Your Thoughts
* Middle school student confesses to GCMS threat
* Updated: Wilson, Killeen look at how to lift AAUP censure
* Ex-head of Chicago Public Schools expected to plead guilty
* School won't comply with order regarding transgender student
* World's biggest beer makers agree to join forces
* Playboy to stop running pictures of completely naked women
* AP Exclusive: Clinton server's software had hacking risk
* Insurgents shell Russian embassy in Syria during rally

* Plea negotiations ongoing for Aurora cousins charged in terror case
* Taylor Swift leads American Music Awards nominations
* Kuechly practices after missing last 3 games with concussion
* Geneva man killed in Batavia crash
* Antioch couple's house divided: She loves the Cubs, he's die-hard for the Cards

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* State senators propose law to reduce textb......

* Suburban Republican says he'll challenge M......
* Illinois U.S. Senate Primary Adds New Name......
* By: Mark Fitton | Illinois News NetworkSim......

* EXTRA: That was quick! Or was it?
* Foster: If we can't screen Syrian refugees, we shouldn't take them in
* Rauner suggests selling Chicago's Thompson building
* The hashtag winner for the 100th Anniversary contest; start using it now
* Lance can help you improve your social media effectiveness
* Update x3: Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy withdraws from House Speaker race
* "Chicago Ideas Week" to feature Planned Parenthood's Cecile Richards Tuesday
* Drews becomes IAR president; logo celebrates IAR’s 100 years
* Morning Minute: U.S. foreclosure inventory down 25 percent compared to last summer
* Kelsey Grammer's t-shirt irritates the Left

* Illinois Lottery Seeks Industry Feedback in Search for New Manager - Posts Request for Information in initial search for new private partner
* Board’s New Rules Will Reduce Risk of Tire Fires and Disease-Carrying Mosquitos
* Illinois Hosts Inaugural Interstate Medical Licensure Compact - Aims to increase health care access through multi-state physician licensure program
* IEMA Announces Elgin Community College Attains ‘Ready to Respond Campus’ Designation - Elgin one of five Illinois campuses to receive distinction
* New Mortgage Loan Interface Increases Efficiency, Compliance

    Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller