image
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Thursday, Mar 27, 2014

* From Illinois Watchdog

Illinois lawmakers have proposed a budget that tops $34 billion, but doesn’t rely on the 2011 tax money. If Quinn gets his wish and a permanent tax hike, state spending could increase to almost $36 billion for the next year.

That would mean Illinois is spending $12 billion a year more than in 2000.

Using a handy-dandy online inflation calculator from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, $24 billion in 2000 equals $32.7 billion today. So, using the Watchdog’s budget numbers, the state is spending, in real dollars, just $1.3 billion more than it was back then, without half the tax hike revenue, or $3.3 billion with it. But the state is also making full pension payments these days. It was spending a whole lot less on pensions back in 2000.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


25 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 8:58 am:

    Yeah, but the state will be spending $36 billion more than it did in 1818. Thanks, Obama!


  2. - PublicServant - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:07 am:

    Illinois Watchdog is a Franklin Center Affiliate. Here’s what MediaMatters has to say about the group and their affiliates:
    ===
    The Franklin Center is a multimillion-dollar organization whose websites and affiliates provide free statehouse reporting to local newspapers and other media across the country. Funded by major conservative donors, staffed by veterans of groups affiliated with the Koch brothers, and maintaining a regular presence hosting right-wing events, the organization boasts of its ability to fill the void created by state newsroom layoffs.

    The group’s editors claim that their “professional journalism” work is walled off from the organization’s more nakedly political operations and say that their “pro-taxpayer, pro-liberty, free market perspective” doesn’t compromise their accuracy or independence. But many journalism professionals - even newspaper editors who reprint the work of Franklin Center affiliates in their own pages - speak warily of the group’s ideological bent.
    ===

    Looks like propoganda as opposed to journalism to me.


  3. - Linus - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:07 am:

    Ha! Thanks, wordslinger, for the morning coffee spit-take!


  4. - Lycurgus - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:12 am:

    How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000?


  5. - Bill White - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:15 am:

    An increase from $24 million in 2000 to $36 million in 2014 is a 150% increase over 14 years

    That is right in line with the increase in the Illinois Gross Domestic Product over that same period.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ILNGSP

    ===

    And, the 2000 figures are based on shorting the pension payment.

    In real terms (based on both inflation and state measured GDP) the 2014 budget is MORE frugal than the 2000 budget.


  6. - downstate commissioner - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:17 am:

    Lycugus, now you are trying to use logic to explain government, and that never works.

    Doesn’t matter what “real” dollars are to taxpayers…to them real dollars are what comes out of their own pockets at tax time….


  7. - Bill White - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:18 am:

    === How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000? ===

    IMHO, because Michael Madigan has pretty much held the line on taxes, especially prior to the income tax increase to 5%.

    Notwithstanding all the shouting, yelling and tearing of hair, total Illinois state and local taxes are relatively low when compared with the rest of the United States.


  8. - Michelle Flaherty - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    Take the pension payment out of the budget and rerun the numbers.


  9. - Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    Comparing to 2000? What genius came up with that comparison.


  10. - Bill White - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:27 am:

    === Comparing to 2000? What genius came up with that comparison. ===

    Illinois Watchdog?


  11. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    ===How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000? ===

    It’s mostly explained above in two words: Pension payments.


  12. - PublicServant - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    ===It’s mostly explained above in two words: Pension payments.===

    It’s completely explained, however, as follows:

    Debt Repayments for decades of shorting the State Pensions.

    There. Fixed.


  13. - Chris Wetterich - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    Jeez, if you do all that math, it guts the ideological point that drives every story written by the Franklin Center.


  14. - PublicServant - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:59 am:

    Hey Chris, got a daughter heading to UC in the fall, and, yes, math trumps spin.


  15. - dupage dan - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:08 am:

    === But the state is also making full pension payments these days ===

    For now……


  16. - Nearly Normal - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    There is a classic book on statistics called “How to Lie with Statistics” by Darrel Huff and Irving Geis. First published in 1954, this book is still in print and required reading for many secondary and college courses.


  17. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    Here’s what MediaMatters has to say…

    Stop right there.


  18. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    Are they only looking at GRF spending? Because the FY 2003 budget - the last budget enacted by a Republican governor, was more than $52 billion.

    So, my question is, how does this budget compare to FY 2003 in total spending as a percent of GDP?


  19. - Steve Williams - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 12:10 pm:

    I get you are trying to keep it simple by using the calculator but those are big numbers and small differences gets into serious money. BLS says that CPI cannot be used across different geographic areas. If you use the Midwest CPI instead of the national CPI, which is what the calculator appears to use, you will get a number that is significantly lower than the $32.7B, in the $800M-$1.7B range lower.

    Also, I don’t find any references to CPI including productivity increases in the calculation. This could lower the amount of money necessary to perform the same functions by as much as 30% over those 13 years. Clearly, all $32.7B would not be impacted by productivity increases but a significant portion should be if we have effective management in place. If even a third can be impacted, that another $1B.

    These additions don’t get us close to the $12B but it puts us closer to the middle of the two ranges.

    As you said, fun with numbers.


  20. - Bill White - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 12:17 pm:

    What Michelle Flaherty said

    === Take the pension payment out of the budget and rerun the numbers. ===

    That makes it an apples to apples comparison.

    Then use the more precise inflation numbers.

    As a second frame of reference, also use the GDP figures to calculate aggregate S&L taxation as a percent of overall percent of GDP.


  21. - Anon - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 12:22 pm:

    == How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000? ==

    The outdated IL tax system does not capture the growth in the economy. We don’t tax services — though we have a service economy — and we don’t have gradutated tax rates — though the lion’s share of income growth has gone to the top 5%. If we adopted, say, the Wisconsin tax system — with scores of service taxes and a graduated income tax — the IL treasury would pull in several $billion more a year.


  22. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:04 pm:

    – If we adopted, say, the Wisconsin tax system — with scores of service taxes and a graduated income tax — the IL treasury would pull in several $billion more a year.–

    I find it fascinating that those who most loudly praise the alleged fiscal acumen of Gov. Walker are the most opposed to anything resembling the Wisconsin tax model.


  23. - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 3:33 pm:

    == How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000? ==

    If Illinois’ spending has grown roughly 150% (@Bill White), Illinois’ economy has grown roughly 150% (@Bill White), and Illinois’ state revenue collections have grown roughly 171% (IDoR annual reports http://tax.illinois.gov/aboutidor/taxstats/), it is not the state’s revenue we should be focusing on, but rather why Illinois’ budget surplus has not stayed in line since 2000.

    A more accurate question might be “What has structurally changed in our 2014 budget model compared to the year 2000?”

    Illinois ran a surplus of +$777 million in 2000 (http://illinoisissues-archive.uis.edu/papers/budget.pdf). We also finished improving our pension system funding ratio from 52.4% in 1995 to a high of 74.7% in 2000.

    Even if tax rates today were identical to the lower tax rates in 2000, we should be running an inflation-adjusted surplus of $1,059,377,683 in 2014.

    So, if spending, the economy, and revenue collections all grew in similar fashion since 2000 then what caused our budget surplus to “disappear”?

    At least 2 possibilities seem plausible, though others here can probably think of many more.

    - The big change would appear to be the fact we are now making a full pension payment. I am not, however, certain by exactly how much we may have shorted the pension payment in 2000 or how much the payment was supposed to be that year.

    - A decrease in federal revenue to Illinois could also explain the change, though that seems counterintuitive with an Illinoisan in the White House.


  24. - Just The Way It Is One - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:31 pm:

    Wow–that’s aMAzingly CLOSE in spending comparisons from 2000 up ’till now–AND one amazing little online CALculator to boot! Maybe 14 years later, our Beloved Illinois isn’t so way off track after ALL (as SOME might try to “hammer” INto or “shake up” into our Heads, as if we’ll just take his WORD for it(!), with their Nightly TV Ads)…!


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Mar 28, 14 @ 7:48 am:

    Don’t be too hard on Illinois Watchdog.

    The Tribune’s reporting of the numbers is nearly as contrived.

    Can we get one more story on unemployment that ignores that reductions in government employees is the driving force?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Caption contest!
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* Prison contract work rules hit
* Question of the day
* Muttering, resignation follow new appointment
* Today's quotables: Rauner vs. Madigan
* *** UPDATED x1 - NWMC didn't advance *** Makanda: Oops!
* Rate Exelon's new TV and radio ads
* *** UPDATED x2 - Fritchey: More needs to be done *** Alvarez to divert low-level drug crimes
* $1.6 billion versus (at least) $2.2 billion
* Rauner is not a news junkie
* Rauner opens new campaign front in pursuit of grand bargain
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition, fundraiser list and more
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * OPPO R7 video shows off a neat trick that hides the bezels
        * AT&T LG G Flex 2 announced, available April 24
        * A Galaxy S6 tablet could give the iPad a run for its money
        * LG G4 camera teaser focuses on aperture, lenses, sensor, and manual controls
        * LG showcases the Watch Urbane in beautiful time lapse video of Barcelona
        * LG G4 free toys, Nokia smartphones, Android Wear update & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Humble Bundle teams up with Tin Man Games for latest mobile bundle

        * New Pioneer BDR-XS06JL Portable Blu-ray Writer For Windows/Mac
        * Mouse Computer’s New 13.3-Inch Business Notebook With HD+ Display
        * To Make Breast and Ovarian Cancer Tests More Affordable, Color Genomics Raises $15M
        * Capture All Of Your Adventures With This WiFi-Enabled Full HD Action Camera
        * Oppo Outs Another Entry-Level Android 4.4 Smartphone For $111
        * Native Union Unveils iPhone Case Made From Marble
        * Disney Research Finds A Way To Make Dubbing More Believable

        * Four-run ninth rescues White Sox in opener
        * White Sox write unexpected ending to thriller
        * White Sox 4, Indians 3: Offense rises from the dead
        * Four-run ninth rescues White Sox in opener
        * Petricka back in the mix for reshuffled bullpen
        * Focus for Hahn, Ventura remains in dugout
        * Rodon to get feet wet in 'pen before moving to rotation

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * The Latest: Captain and crew member arrested..
        * Rauner's dangerous talk of Chicago schools bank.....
        * U of I faculty among best paid in Big 10..
        * Divided Rockford City Council endorses Rauner '.....
        * Secretary of state to visit, honor Lake Land..
        * GOP’s Darin LaHood favored in race to replace S.....
        * Restoring immigration services..
        * EDITORIAL: Stand firm in support of Illiana Exp.....
        * Rauner to announce road construction road show..
        * Rauner appoints Burzynski to health board..


        * GOP's Darin LaHood favored in race to replace Schock
        * Trucker gets three-year sentence in fatal Tollway crash
        * Former Chicago Bears linebacker Doug Buffone dead at 70
        * Chicago police officer cleared in woman's shooting death
        * Madison man pleads guilty in fatal hit-and-run of teen
        * Chicago police officer cleared in woman's shooting death
        * Interim Chicago schools chief calls for independent audit
        * GOP's LaHood remains front-runner in race to replace Schock
        * Low-level drug offenders in Chicago to be treated not jailed
        * Autopsy set after man's body found in vehicle in Rock River

        * Davis: Improvement needed in Springfield VA clinic wait times
        * New IDOC director says union contracts causing problems
        * GOP's LaHood remains front-runner in race to replace Schock
        * Illinois House votes to limit specialty license plates
        * Senate Democratic leadership shuffle bruises Schumer-Durbin friendship
        * Hopes dim for school funding formula overhaul's passage
        * State education board member quits over superintendent hire
        * Statehouse Insider: We're getting to the bottom of this
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Bruce Rauner is no Jim Thompson on labor issue
        * Madigan forms committee to review Rauner budget activities

        * Caterpillar hikes CEO pay to $17.1 million
        * Tribune Media pays up for top execs
        * Mellody Hobson is certifiably influential
        * U of C Medical Center nurses prepare to strike next week
        * Durbin sides with U.S. airlines in dogfight over Mideast service


          * Police: Man shot in back dies, 2 others hurt in separate shootings
          * Alvarez proposes steering minor drug offenders to treatment
          * Protesters gather after officer's acquittal in fatal shooting
          * Judge acquits Chicago cop in fatal off-duty shooting, sparking anger
          * Lawsuit over naked crime scene photos headed for trial
          * Trucker gets three years in prison for fatal I-88 crash
          * Judge says Berrios doesn't have to pay $10,000 ethics fine
          * Retired bishop recounts Cardinal George's final moments
          * 5th Schock staffer says he's been subpoenaed
          * Three charged in connection with Zion shooting


          * Emergency room visits for mental health skyrocket in Chicago
          * Rauner's first 100 days: The fight between unions and Rauner
          * New Illinois education chief is urban school reform leader
          * Emanuel tells Spike Lee he doesn't like name 'Chiraq' for film
          * Chicago police officer cleared in woman's shooting death
          * Portage Park church mourns 'favorite son' Cardinal George
          * CPS Board president says Chicago schools under investigation
          * Cook County prosecutor to try new approach to drug crimes
          * Cardinal Francis George helped 'make his people holy'
          * Remembering Chicago's Cardinal Francis George


          * Davis: Improvement needed in Springfield VA clinic wait times
          * Our Opinion: Springfield still struggles to be tourist friendly
          * Kathleen Parker: 2016: The woman trap
          * Quote of the Day: Tuesday, April 21, 2015
          * New IDOC director says union contracts causing problems
          * GOP's LaHood remains front-runner in race to replace Schock
          * Illinois House votes to limit specialty license plates
          * Senate Democratic leadership shuffle bruises Schumer-Durbin friendship
          * Matt Dietrich: The dizzying agenda of Bruce Rauner
          * Hopes dim for school funding formula overhaul's passage


          * William Beasley
          * Daryl Yarber
          * Sierra Hess
          * LaVerne Gerberding
          * Dale Bowers
          * Donald Daniels
          * Edna Harris
          * William Jennings
          * Tjay Klamm
          * John Tomanovich


          * Bats come alive for Sox in ninth inning
          * Palatine sets aside $1 million for salt dome, generator
          * New 10-home subdivision will be built in Glen Ellyn
          * Ducks rally for 5-4 OT win, lead series 3-0
          * Barrington makes a splash in Conant's new pool

          * Northwestern students travel to Washington...
          * Transit representatives, state politicians...
          * Bost Checks Out Traffic Safety Days
          * Kinzinger proposes streamlining to help mi...
          * Gotta Do It April 19 through April 25
          * Republican Congress moves into deal-making...
          * Kinzinger reintroduces bipartisan bill to ...
          * Legislative Wrangling Over Data Security a...
          * Cardinal Francis George succumbs to cancer...
          * Busy Easter Period for Waterford Racing Club

          * Durbin sides with U.S. airlines in dogfigh......
          * Corinthian Colleges' Long And Winding Road......
          * Durbin Dislikes McConnell's EPA Letter...
          * Eugene Robinson: Confirm Loretta Lynch now...
          * Robinson: Confirm Loretta Lynch now...

          * U.S. Senators introduce Armenian Genocide ......
          * Republicans Want to Add Jailed Reporter to......
          * US senators condemn reported charges of es......

          * Cardinal Francis George Has Died
          * Cook County State's Attorney Unveils 'Sweeping' Reforms To Drug Policies
          * Sports fans arguing about anything can result in some serious stupidity
          * Track Demolition To Close Wilson For A Week
          * Pensacola Place Sells For $66 Million
          * The Weekend In Chicago Rock
          * CPS CEO Bryd-Bennett Taking Leave Of Absence During Federal Probe (UPDATED)
          * Report: 2014 Wall Street Bonuses Were Double The Earnings Of 1 Million Low-Wage Workers
          * Report Finds Illinois Emergency Responders May Be Unaware Of Chemical Dangers
          * Interim CPS CEO Wants Independent Audit


          * Illinoisans Receive Governor’s Volunteer Service Award - 6thAnnual Awards Ceremony to be Held on April 20thin Springfield
          * Get Smart About College Planning During Money Smart Week® - College Illinois!® 529 Prepaid Tuition Program offers tips to plan for--and afford--the cost of college
          * Motorcycle Season Revs Up, Riders Urged to “Gear Up-Ride Smart” - New Campaign Touts Staying Safe Through Proper Gear, Education
          * IDOT’s Operation Teen Safe Driving Program Announces 2014-15 Winning Schools - Innovative Program Helps Save Lives, Promotes Safe Driving Habits
          * State of Illinois Takes Action on Medical Cannabis Dispensary Applicants





              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller