SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Thursday, Mar 27, 2014

* From Illinois Watchdog

Illinois lawmakers have proposed a budget that tops $34 billion, but doesn’t rely on the 2011 tax money. If Quinn gets his wish and a permanent tax hike, state spending could increase to almost $36 billion for the next year.

That would mean Illinois is spending $12 billion a year more than in 2000.

Using a handy-dandy online inflation calculator from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, $24 billion in 2000 equals $32.7 billion today. So, using the Watchdog’s budget numbers, the state is spending, in real dollars, just $1.3 billion more than it was back then, without half the tax hike revenue, or $3.3 billion with it. But the state is also making full pension payments these days. It was spending a whole lot less on pensions back in 2000.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


25 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 8:58 am:

    Yeah, but the state will be spending $36 billion more than it did in 1818. Thanks, Obama!


  2. - PublicServant - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:07 am:

    Illinois Watchdog is a Franklin Center Affiliate. Here’s what MediaMatters has to say about the group and their affiliates:
    ===
    The Franklin Center is a multimillion-dollar organization whose websites and affiliates provide free statehouse reporting to local newspapers and other media across the country. Funded by major conservative donors, staffed by veterans of groups affiliated with the Koch brothers, and maintaining a regular presence hosting right-wing events, the organization boasts of its ability to fill the void created by state newsroom layoffs.

    The group’s editors claim that their “professional journalism” work is walled off from the organization’s more nakedly political operations and say that their “pro-taxpayer, pro-liberty, free market perspective” doesn’t compromise their accuracy or independence. But many journalism professionals - even newspaper editors who reprint the work of Franklin Center affiliates in their own pages - speak warily of the group’s ideological bent.
    ===

    Looks like propoganda as opposed to journalism to me.


  3. - Linus - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:07 am:

    Ha! Thanks, wordslinger, for the morning coffee spit-take!


  4. - Lycurgus - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:12 am:

    How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000?


  5. - Bill White - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:15 am:

    An increase from $24 million in 2000 to $36 million in 2014 is a 150% increase over 14 years

    That is right in line with the increase in the Illinois Gross Domestic Product over that same period.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ILNGSP

    ===

    And, the 2000 figures are based on shorting the pension payment.

    In real terms (based on both inflation and state measured GDP) the 2014 budget is MORE frugal than the 2000 budget.


  6. - downstate commissioner - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:17 am:

    Lycugus, now you are trying to use logic to explain government, and that never works.

    Doesn’t matter what “real” dollars are to taxpayers…to them real dollars are what comes out of their own pockets at tax time….


  7. - Bill White - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:18 am:

    === How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000? ===

    IMHO, because Michael Madigan has pretty much held the line on taxes, especially prior to the income tax increase to 5%.

    Notwithstanding all the shouting, yelling and tearing of hair, total Illinois state and local taxes are relatively low when compared with the rest of the United States.


  8. - Michelle Flaherty - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    Take the pension payment out of the budget and rerun the numbers.


  9. - Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    Comparing to 2000? What genius came up with that comparison.


  10. - Bill White - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:27 am:

    === Comparing to 2000? What genius came up with that comparison. ===

    Illinois Watchdog?


  11. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    ===How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000? ===

    It’s mostly explained above in two words: Pension payments.


  12. - PublicServant - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    ===It’s mostly explained above in two words: Pension payments.===

    It’s completely explained, however, as follows:

    Debt Repayments for decades of shorting the State Pensions.

    There. Fixed.


  13. - Chris Wetterich - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    Jeez, if you do all that math, it guts the ideological point that drives every story written by the Franklin Center.


  14. - PublicServant - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:59 am:

    Hey Chris, got a daughter heading to UC in the fall, and, yes, math trumps spin.


  15. - dupage dan - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:08 am:

    === But the state is also making full pension payments these days ===

    For now……


  16. - Nearly Normal - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    There is a classic book on statistics called “How to Lie with Statistics” by Darrel Huff and Irving Geis. First published in 1954, this book is still in print and required reading for many secondary and college courses.


  17. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    Here’s what MediaMatters has to say…

    Stop right there.


  18. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    Are they only looking at GRF spending? Because the FY 2003 budget - the last budget enacted by a Republican governor, was more than $52 billion.

    So, my question is, how does this budget compare to FY 2003 in total spending as a percent of GDP?


  19. - Steve Williams - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 12:10 pm:

    I get you are trying to keep it simple by using the calculator but those are big numbers and small differences gets into serious money. BLS says that CPI cannot be used across different geographic areas. If you use the Midwest CPI instead of the national CPI, which is what the calculator appears to use, you will get a number that is significantly lower than the $32.7B, in the $800M-$1.7B range lower.

    Also, I don’t find any references to CPI including productivity increases in the calculation. This could lower the amount of money necessary to perform the same functions by as much as 30% over those 13 years. Clearly, all $32.7B would not be impacted by productivity increases but a significant portion should be if we have effective management in place. If even a third can be impacted, that another $1B.

    These additions don’t get us close to the $12B but it puts us closer to the middle of the two ranges.

    As you said, fun with numbers.


  20. - Bill White - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 12:17 pm:

    What Michelle Flaherty said

    === Take the pension payment out of the budget and rerun the numbers. ===

    That makes it an apples to apples comparison.

    Then use the more precise inflation numbers.

    As a second frame of reference, also use the GDP figures to calculate aggregate S&L taxation as a percent of overall percent of GDP.


  21. - Anon - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 12:22 pm:

    == How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000? ==

    The outdated IL tax system does not capture the growth in the economy. We don’t tax services — though we have a service economy — and we don’t have gradutated tax rates — though the lion’s share of income growth has gone to the top 5%. If we adopted, say, the Wisconsin tax system — with scores of service taxes and a graduated income tax — the IL treasury would pull in several $billion more a year.


  22. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:04 pm:

    – If we adopted, say, the Wisconsin tax system — with scores of service taxes and a graduated income tax — the IL treasury would pull in several $billion more a year.–

    I find it fascinating that those who most loudly praise the alleged fiscal acumen of Gov. Walker are the most opposed to anything resembling the Wisconsin tax model.


  23. - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 3:33 pm:

    == How come the state’s revenue hasn’t been increased by inflation to the same extent as it’s costs since 2000? ==

    If Illinois’ spending has grown roughly 150% (@Bill White), Illinois’ economy has grown roughly 150% (@Bill White), and Illinois’ state revenue collections have grown roughly 171% (IDoR annual reports http://tax.illinois.gov/aboutidor/taxstats/), it is not the state’s revenue we should be focusing on, but rather why Illinois’ budget surplus has not stayed in line since 2000.

    A more accurate question might be “What has structurally changed in our 2014 budget model compared to the year 2000?”

    Illinois ran a surplus of +$777 million in 2000 (http://illinoisissues-archive.uis.edu/papers/budget.pdf). We also finished improving our pension system funding ratio from 52.4% in 1995 to a high of 74.7% in 2000.

    Even if tax rates today were identical to the lower tax rates in 2000, we should be running an inflation-adjusted surplus of $1,059,377,683 in 2014.

    So, if spending, the economy, and revenue collections all grew in similar fashion since 2000 then what caused our budget surplus to “disappear”?

    At least 2 possibilities seem plausible, though others here can probably think of many more.

    - The big change would appear to be the fact we are now making a full pension payment. I am not, however, certain by exactly how much we may have shorted the pension payment in 2000 or how much the payment was supposed to be that year.

    - A decrease in federal revenue to Illinois could also explain the change, though that seems counterintuitive with an Illinoisan in the White House.


  24. - Just The Way It Is One - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:31 pm:

    Wow–that’s aMAzingly CLOSE in spending comparisons from 2000 up ’till now–AND one amazing little online CALculator to boot! Maybe 14 years later, our Beloved Illinois isn’t so way off track after ALL (as SOME might try to “hammer” INto or “shake up” into our Heads, as if we’ll just take his WORD for it(!), with their Nightly TV Ads)…!


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Mar 28, 14 @ 7:48 am:

    Don’t be too hard on Illinois Watchdog.

    The Tribune’s reporting of the numbers is nearly as contrived.

    Can we get one more story on unemployment that ignores that reductions in government employees is the driving force?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner response *** This just in... Illinois Supreme Court denies Rauner appeal
* They need a rich "white knight"
* Johnson finally backs Davis... So does Joan
* Schneider throws Quinn under the bus
* Wincing before the hit
* Inspector general's IDOT probe places no direct blame on Quinn
* Today's number: 57 percent
* *** UPDATED x2 - Not totally clean - Some questions answered *** Stories raise unanswered questions about IDOC policy
* *** UPDATED x1 - Schneider campaign responds *** US, Illinois Chambers launch TV hit on Schneider
* Reaching into the past for today's gotcha moment
* New DGA YouTube video ties Rauner to Romney via outsourcing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* This just in... Unions file motion to "gut" the state's pension case
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * BiiSafe Buddy Is A Bluetooth Keyfob For Item-Tracking And Location Alerts
        * Future Project Ara iteration to get a custom Rockchip chip
        * Most smartphone users download this many apps per month: zero
        * The Week in iPad Cases: Om nom nom nom
        * HTC ‘Flounder’ gets WiFi certified, next Nexus tablet?
        * Some legacy plan customers being moved to Simple Choice
        * Cricket Wireless wants T-Mo and MetroPCS customers to switch, offering $100 to do so

        * A Look Back as Re/coders Saturated the Airwaves This Week
        * Should so-called “free” apps really be labeled as “free?”
        * Here’s what electric cars need to succeed: roaming for charging stations
        * Top 10 Superior Tech Products You'll Never Go Back From
        * How to Beat Your Friends at Swing Copters, the Sequel to Flappy Bird
        * Aaron Levie still believes Box is the answer in content management. Here’s why
        * Tie Food with Dental Floss Instead of Kitchen Twine

        * Yankees 4, White Sox 3: Prado walks off
        * The White Sox and the Guillen Number
        * White Sox recall infield prospect Sanchez
        * Abreu's 33rd homer not enough for White Sox
        * Shortstop Anderson debuts at Double-A
        * Carroll, White Sox look to end Yankee Stadium hex
        * Abreu's 33rd homer not enough for White Sox


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * State renews Get Covered Illinois PR contract..
        * Section of Interstate 70 named for Jerry Costello..
        * campaign ads..
        * Illinois Governor's race..
        * Report: IDOT broke hiring rules for years..
        * Rauner Once Called Quinn an 'Extraordinary' Leader..


        * Chicago boy, 3, shot in head, critically wounded
        * State renews Get Covered Illinois PR contract
        * Mayor: Jackie Robinson West 'pride of Chicago'
        * Chicago's Pullman site could become national park
        * Rauner dealt double blows over Illinois ballot
        * 8 gang members indicted on racketeering charges
        * Church cautions schools on ice bucket challenge
        * Rauner says Board of Election action a Quinn win
        * 2 parolees charged in suburban Chicago standoff
        * Supreme Court won't take up term limits appeal

        * State employee unions want expedited ruling in pensions suit
        * November ballot certified without term limits question
        * Supreme Court won't take up term limits appeal
        * Rauner dealt double blows over Illinois ballot
        * IDOT broke hiring rules for years, report finds
        * State Rep. Poe faces 3-week stem cell procedure in Texas
        * IDOT cuts positions following questions on hiring
        * Authorities investigating powdery substance at Illinois State Library
        * Powdery substance mailed to Illinois State Library deemed non-hazardous
        * Term-limit backers seek Supreme Court intervention

        * Chicago execs join in ice bucket challenge
        * McDonald's testing mozzarella sticks with marinara sauce
        * Watch where Michael Madigan tries to boost turnout
        * Supreme Court spikes term limits appeal
        * IDOT broke hiring rules for years, state report says


        * IDOT political hiring is setback for Quinn
        * Kids pay the price for weak oversight of charter schools
        * A new heart, a deeper love
        * Karen Lewis credits dad with influencing her populist platform
        * Eight accused of racketeering, drug-running in Indiana
        * Cardinal George to participate in research trial of new cancer drug
        * Prosecutor: Harvey hostages threatened, one woman sexually assaulted
        * Boy, 3, shot in head on  W. Side
        * Emanuel alters eligibility rules for firefighters entrance exam


        * 3-year-old boy shot in head on West Side
        * Man dies after jumping into Chicago River downtown
        * 10 shot, including 3-year-old, across city
        * Jackson Jr.'s political fund fined nearly $18,000 for missing reports
        * Chicago fugitive extradited from Poland
        * Cops: Tracking device leads officers to phone store robbery suspects
        * Libertarian Party remains on Illinois ballot this fall
        * Rauner term limits question won't appear on November ballot
        * Ex-cop could face prison for violating probation
        * Cardinal George testing new cancer drug


        * IL Supreme Court Won't Hear Term Limit Question Before Ballot Deadline
        * Gone Fishing: Harsh winter brings lake temps down, but not for long
        * Race, Cops & Traffic Stops
        * Listen to State Week - August 22, 2014
        * In Wake Of Ferguson, Rally Planned In Springfield
        * WUIS Education Desk: Springfield Mayoral Candidates Talk District 186
        * Unions Ask For Quick Ruling On Pensions
        * Report Says IDOT Broke Hiring Rules For Years
        * CPS students scramble for new school after Concept charter opening delayed
        * Illinois Takes First Step Toward Drafting Greenhouse Gas Plan


        * State employee unions want expedited ruling in pensions suit
        * Rodney Davis: Congress trying to aid college debt battle
        * Charles Krauthammer: Stopping the worst people on earth
        * November ballot certified without term limits question
        * IDOT broke hiring rules for years, report finds
        * Our Opinion: Another life saved by CPR
        * Esther Cepeda: Misreading our demographics
        * E.J. Dionne: Ferguson divides us less than we imagine
        * Richard Kaplan: Additional Rauner tax-return disclosures probably won’t reveal much
        * State Rep. Poe faces 3-week stem cell procedure in Texas


        * Rantoul's Ira Jefferson, August, 2014
        * Percussionist to begin nursing home tour
        * Kids, clubs and clothes: Junior golf events raise nearly $40K for foundation
        * Crime Stoppers
        * Libertarians land on November ballot
        * Jesse White says 'there's a lot more to be done' as Illinois secretary of state
        * Other religious milestones in Belleville
        * Getting along: Merging cultures helped shape Belleville's Catholic heritage
        * Our Town: Merging cultures helped shape Belleville's Catholic heritage
        * NAACP takes issue with SIU


        * Streets of Ferguson stay calm after violent nights
        * Chicago's Pullman site could become national park
        * Purdue balks at use of its brand in panned film
        * Section of Interstate 70 named for Jerry Costello
        * Chicago man gets 40 years in fatal 2009 crash

        * Inactive Congress Discussed - Alton Daily ...
        * Roskam, Kirk speak to local business owner...
        * Roskam Talks Taxes - Alton Daily News
        * Roskam gives business leaders vision for f...
        * Nadler, Roskam Introduce Bipartisan Resolu...
        * Rep. Nadler, Roskam Introduce Resolution C...
        * Rep. Roskam In Letter to Kerry: Stop Runni...
        * Reinvigorating The Antibiotics Pipeline - ...
        * What's next for Peter Roskam? - Chicago Su...
        * Roskam hires wounded veteran in West Chica...

        * Section of Interstate 70 named for Jerry C......
        * Section of Interstate 70 Named for Jerry C......
        * Section of Interstate 70 Named for Jerry C......
        * Section of Interstate 70 Named for Jerry C......
        * Section of Interstate 70 Named for Jerry C......

        * State Senate approves bill prompted by Col......
        * County rivals West Perry, Susquenita clash......

        * A job hunting anniversary has just passed
        * Peru Elementary Superintendent Writes Scathing Letter Opposing Common Core
        * Davis gets lands endorsement of independent business organization
        * Illinois Delegation Had 9th Most Expensive Spending Agenda in Congress
        * Davis lands endorsement of independent business organization
        * Illinois 10th Congressional District: Brad Schneider, Bob Dold, and Karl Rove
        * The Weekend In Chicago Rock
        * Chicago schools to give students a ‘healthy eating report card’
        * The Weekend Desk Report
        * Op-Ed: Illinois GOP Needs to get behind effort to win back the House


        * ICYMI: Feds subpoena emails of Quinn’s ex-chief of staff
        * Quinn Said He Was Stopping Patronage Hiring In 2010; He Was Actually Expanding It
        * Rauner: Quinn patronage scandal reminds us why we need term limits
        * Governor Quinn Announces New Class of Illinois State Police Cadets - More Cadets to Protect and Serve Communities Across Illinois
        * Governor Quinn Signs Landmark Legislation to Reform Illinois’ Mass Transit Agencies - Law Establishes Review Procedures for Unprecedented Transparency and Accountability Across CTA, RTA, PACE and METRA




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller