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Is Emanuel bouncing back?

Thursday, Mar 27, 2014

* Partial results of two Anzalone-Liszt-Grove Research polls taken for state Rep. Christian Mitchell’s primary campaign show Mayor Rahm Emanuel apparently bouncing back in March from some big trouble last December with African-American Democratic voters

Emanuel favorability African Americans 18-64

    55 favorable, 38 unfavorable MARCH

    42 favorable 51 unfavorable DECEMBER

Emanuel favorability Africa Americans non-college

    60 favorable 28 unfavorable MARCH

    48 favorable 45 unfavorable DECEMBER

* Also

Emanuel has a base of senior African American voters — those over the age of 65 — in this district poll; his standing did not change much in the past months with his favorables holding at 62 per cent.

This is just one House district on the South Side, so it would be better to see broader results. Still, the mayor’s movement is quite interesting.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:38 pm:

    It is interesting, even within the small geographic area.

    Off the top of my head, I can’t think of any one or two things that would account for a bump.


  2. - Arizona Bob - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    Back in December, the stench of the teachers strike and the school closings was still on everyone’s mind. Many blamed Rahm and it became a “white (Rahm) vs african american (Karen Lewis)”
    issue. Kids and families are adjusted now, so they gravitate towards their standard perception postion


  3. - PoolGuy - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:09 pm:

    He gave a good talk on CNBC this morning about the Forbes Reinventing America Summit going on in Chicago this week.


  4. - crazybleedingheart - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:20 pm:

    He has lowered the ratio of jock white wonderboy advisors telling him he’s doing just great with “constituencies” that seem based on zillionaires, yuppies, the internet, and/or people outside of Chicago.

    He’s been reaching out directly to communities, trying to shift away the very clear FOAD message of his first few years.

    As memories of the school disaster fade, some are buying what he’s selling.

    Entirely justified skepticism remains.


  5. - Commander Norton - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:20 pm:

    Hey, I know! Maybe they’ve all been watching Chicagoland on CNN! Well, maybe not. But if they did watch it, they’d learn that the Mayor, despite being Jewish, is probably a candidate for sainthood.


  6. - I'm New Here - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:24 pm:

    Came her to offer the same theory on Chicagoland. Had to turn it off midway through the first episode lest I be subjected to any more propaganda.

    Thank goodness it’s spawned some serious questions about the Mayor’s policies:

    http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20140327/downtown/rahms-flip-phone-ridiculed-by-chicagoland-viewers-but-he-stands-by-it


  7. - Upon Further Review - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:32 pm:

    Rather meaningless, so far removed from the mayoral election. As noted, the district sampled is too small to be representative of the entire community.


  8. - Soccermom - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    By some definitions, St. Teresa de Avila was Jewish. So there is a precedent.


  9. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:51 pm:

    I think the rebound, if it is a real rebound, correlates nicely with the drop in murders.

    Also, Ben Joravksy doesn’t have a column in the Defender.


  10. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:56 pm:

    Maybe the CTU strategy of attacking a candidate backed by Preckwinkle backfired?

    But I suspect Arizona Bob is correct…animosity toward the Mayor was huge immediately following the strike and bound to subside.


  11. - Tom B. - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    First, I’d like to remind everyone that seldomly


  12. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 3:45 pm:

    A lot could be going on here. Arizona Bob’s hypothesis or crazybleedingheart’s. I would also add that as the city decreases in AfAm pop, are some of Rahm’s critics leaving the city? Not that so many would leave as to turn around poll results like this, but it’s just something to throw out there.


  13. - Wensicia - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 3:58 pm:

    I would think the super cold winter played a part. There was less violence in the streets. The success of CPS’s safe-passage program also helped.


  14. - Walker - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 4:16 pm:

    Karen Lewis, and some community activists, way overreacted and got some anti-Rahm publicity.

    Now more realistic views will reemerge among the public.


  15. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 4:24 pm:

    If there was a poster child for what’s wrong with the Democratic Party Leadership, Rahm would be at the head of the class.


  16. - PMcP - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 5:10 pm:

    Rahm is what’s wrong with the Democratic Party? Look I get he’s done a lot of unpopular things but I still haven’t seen him do anything that hasn’t been talked about for years and never acted upon. At least he’s being decisive rather than drag things out for years and sidestep a bunch of stuff.

    Everything the CTU and parents said would happen absolutely didn’t. It shouldn’t be a big surprise that poll numbers are up. Crime is down and the Armageddon of the school closings didn’t happen.


  17. - David Ormsby - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 6:01 pm:

    Interesting.


  18. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 6:07 pm:

    @PMcP….Let’s start with NAFTA and his shameless business contacts created during Rahm’s working for Clinton. He entered a revolving door that propelled him into an 18 month investment banking career with $16 million dollar payday. Considering his educational background consisting of training as a dance instructor, not a bad Shtick.


  19. - PMcP - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 6:38 pm:

    Your complaint is NAFTA? Dear lord, get over it. You do realize that it has raised living standards in countries outside of the US. It’s poor local short-term policy but good long term benefit for the world in general. I understand being against it but lowering trade barriers is good in the long-term, which is what we need to focus on here.

    So he got a payday afterwards from people he met, it doesn’t make NAFTA bad policy.


  20. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 6:47 pm:

    ==Everything the CTU and parents said would happen absolutely didn’t==

    You mean things like lower grades and test scores, because you can’t really judge that yet since the school year isn’t over and the tests aren’t in. There was an evidence-free Tribbie editorial the other day that claimed everything was up, but provided zero statistics.

    We also know that it was false that all kids would be moving to better performing schools.

    http://www.wbez.org/node/107216#performance


  21. - PMcP - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 6:53 pm:

    Yea, the tribune story was light on facts but what is undeniable is the fact that safe passage works. It’s a start and these changes, unfortunately, are generational rather than immediate. I make no qualms about kids going to lower performing schools from ones that were closed but the rhetoric has died down and there is no evidence that things are out of control. Again, the rebound in poll numbers makes complete sense.


  22. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 7:41 pm:

    @PmCp…”Get over it”…Really…Stagnant incomes for 95% of Americans, 40 years of negative trade balances costing millions of American jobs and a Democratic Party economic policies more aligned with Wall Street than main street. Rahm is one of the many Democrat sell-outs, and if he ever is foolish enough to run statewide, we’ll beat his Fxxry ass like a drum.


  23. - PMcP - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 7:51 pm:

    @Louis Howe

    Yes, “get over it.” Yes, American incomes have stagnated but the long-term benefits of free-trade agreements will correct that issue, which is starting to happen. Manufacturing is returning to the US because the arbitrage market of low wages is becoming less profitable as wages in emerging markets increase and capacity is constrained in the transportation markets, which repatriates the manufacturing jobs back to the US to support local demand and take advantage of the inverse transportation glut (i.e. lots of full shipments coming in but empty containers going out, thus an arbitrage market in exports exists). If we move in a long-term fashion, investors (Wealthier individuals) will benefit initially but the benefits will even out, eventually, and it will be a good thing for the world, not just the US. I completely understand the animosity and hardships created by NAFTA in the US but I imagine if you speak to people in the countries that jobs were shipped to, they would have a bit of a different story, in the long-run it is beneficial for everyone.


  24. - Oh Come On! - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 8:43 pm:

    It would fun to see Rahm bounced from office or down the street like a basketball tossed from a ten story building, but I am fantasizing.


  25. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 28, 14 @ 7:53 am:

    The most popular Chicago mayors don’t make news - they leave fingerprints that Chicagoans recognize and respect.

    If Emanuel expected to run Chicago like any gadfly politician who uses the Office as a stepping stone to a bigger spotlight, he won’t find Chicagoans happy to watch him do that.

    Chicagoans are in Chicago to work, raise a family and earn a living. Hey, a lot of Chicagoans actually root for the Cubs - what does that tell you? Few are so delusional enough to believe that Chicago is anything else but a place that is too cold in the winter, too hot in the summer, too flat to enjoy a view from a hill or mountain resort, and folks don’t come to Chicago to romp along in ocean sands. Consequently, they prefer their mayor to focus on keeping their streets safe, potholes filled, water potable, and schools functioning.

    So when outsiders view Chicago, they almost always get it wrong. The last thing any Chicago mayor needs is an office full of non-Chicagoans giving him or her any advice. Because these people don’t understand Chicagoan priorities.

    Emanuel will be fine as long as he focuses on the least glamorous aspects of the Mayor’s Office because that is where he will build any political popularity. Hey - Chicagoans know that if you don’t earn your pay, it doesn’t matter how well you can speak or look dressed in a suit.

    We like our mayors capable of hauling away our garbage, not spewing political garbage on WGN.


  26. - wordslinger - Friday, Mar 28, 14 @ 8:20 am:

    –The most popular Chicago mayors don’t make news - they leave fingerprints that Chicagoans recognize and respect.–

    I wonder what any of that is intended to communicate.

    There are words, strung together in a complete sentence, but it’s all jabberwocky.

    What are you trying to say? I don’t have a clue. What drove you to write it?


  27. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 28, 14 @ 9:05 am:

    Good grief.

    If you were the Wizard of Oz, you would have asked the Tin Man why he needed a heart.


  28. - Mokenavince - Friday, Mar 28, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    Rahm will still win the next election. There is no
    one who can beat him at this time.
    The man works his tail off and the City is starting to change.
    No one has better PR.


  29. - NW Illinois Dem - Friday, Mar 28, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    The CNN “ChicagoLand” series is enhancing the Mayor’s standing as well.


  30. - wordslinger - Friday, Mar 28, 14 @ 11:36 am:

    –If you were the Wizard of Oz, you would have asked the Tin Man why he needed a heart.–

    LOL, whatever you say, Scarecrow. I still don’t have a clue as to what you’re trying to communicate.


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