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Question of the Day

Tuesday, Apr 22, 2014

Posted by Barton Lorimor (@bartonlorimor)

* Have a look…

Just because your opponent is hurling ridiculous charges does not mean you are free to disregard them. You may think it’s absurd to say that you are engaged in a “war on women.” But contempt for the accusation is not enough.

Some strategists argue that the key for Republican candidates is to downplay social issues in favor of economic arguments. I disagree. Pocketbook appeals are great, but the premise — that social issues damage Republican candidates — is shaky at best.

When Pew asked women voters to rank a list of issues in order of importance in September 2012, abortion was named less often than health care, education, jobs, Medicare, the economy, terrorism, taxes, foreign policy and the budget deficit. The only issues that ranked lower for women voters were immigration and energy. A post-election Kaiser poll found that only 7 percent of those who voted for President Barack Obama cited women’s issues as most important to their vote.

* The question: How much will social issues impact this year’s gubernatorial? Explain.

- Posted by Barton Lorimor        


32 Comments
  1. - Woman on Fire - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 12:23 pm:

    It will matter MUCH.

    Women are tired of working just as hard, if not harder, for less money. Just look at the salaries of female vs male state employees if you need examples.


  2. - TooManyJens - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    Is equal pay considered a social issue or an economic issue, though? Although I think the split between those is overplayed anyway — anyone who ignores the way “social” factors such as race and gender affect and are affected by economic policy is missing something a vital part of the picture.


  3. - Timmeh - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 12:30 pm:

    It really depends on how distasteful the politician’s stance on social issues is.

    Is the politician pro-life? Is the politician Richard Murdock? Is the politician pro-life when Richard Murdock is in the news?

    Regardless of position on social issues, the politician needs to look like a caring adult. If they’re unable to do that, they’re going to breed distaste from the other side.


  4. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 12:32 pm:

    As much as Democrats can make them impact.

    I hear Rauner was at Tiffany’s over the weekend purchasing a diamond-encrusted muzzle for Oberweis.


  5. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 12:32 pm:

    Social issues will matter because Republicans don’t learn from their mistakes. Go ahead Republicans, take advice from the genius who writes this garbage:

    “The Democrats were sly. Obama’s Department of Health and Human Services slipped a mandate into Obamacare that requires all insurers to provide contraceptives for free. Not just to indigent women, but to all women.”

    As if. It’s not about “free” contraceptives, it’s about including contraceptives in health care coverage without additional cost.

    Please take advice from another Cultural Warrior. Pretty please.


  6. - OneMan - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    Not as much as Pat Quinn would like….


  7. - Wensicia - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 12:47 pm:

    Social issues will have little to zero effect in this election. Rauner refuses to discuss them at all, and Quinn is focused on class warfare.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 12:53 pm:

    As much as Sen. Durbin points out Jim Oberweis’ “record” on any number of social issues, and the “responses” of Oberweis uses to refute actual quotes.

    “Oberweis/Rauner” - get use to it. Heard it on election night on Social Issues, (”we know about Oberweis, what do we know about Rauner?”) and if its married to Class Warfare, yikes.

    Durbin is the pace setter, Oberweis chasing will dictate its intensity of pace, and Class Warfare will be the prism Quinn wants the Social issues of Oberweis to stick to Rauner.

    Other than that…


  9. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    When you have the law on your side, argue the law. When you have the facts on your side, argue the facts. When you have neither, bang the table and shout loudly.

    When you have fiscal issues on your side, debate the fiscal issues. When you have competence on your side, debate competence. When you have neither, call your opponent names, define him as a narrow minded hillbilly without class or manners, and claim he wars on others based on their race, gender, sexual orientation or wealth.

    When the economy is booming, debate the economy. When the ACA is a roaring success, debate the ACA. Since both are losers, claim that the GOP hates you, spend millions on ads claiming it, and pretend it is more important than either your ability to pay your bills, or select your doctors.

    Without social issues, Democrats have got nothing this election year - yet.


  10. - Frenchie Mendoza - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 1:06 pm:

    Won’t matter. Rauner won’t engage on any substantive social issue. He’ll ask for a “referendum of voters” or say that he’s “studying his options”. He will continue to refuse to engage and the media will (continue) to give him a pass.

    Rauner’s lack of substance is enough to score substantial votes with downstate voters and, I suspect, many disaffected Cook/Collar voters.

    It’s a sad day when no content scores higher than some content — even if you don’t agree with the content. Rauner, however, will attempt to prove that the no-content strategy is a winning strategy. He’ll insist that any social issue will best be left up to voters — presumably the same low-information voters who gleefully voted him in.


  11. - Chavez-respecting Obamist - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Social issues could have a major effect because Rauner refuses to discuss them. He doesn’t say anything, I am going to assume he agrees with Oberweis.


  12. - Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 1:15 pm:

    Social Issues are a lose-lose for GOP this election cycle.

    Rauner won’t discuss social issues, meaning the GOP social conservative entity will not be going to the polls in bunches on the first Tuesday in November.

    The possibility of Oberweis saying something inappropriate and categorizing the whole GOP ticket as ignorant, unjust, etc. is terrifying for Rauner and other down ballot races from congressional to statewide.

    If you ignore the issues you upset a large GOP block of voters. If you discuss the issues it’s a possibility for another Todd Aiken.


  13. - Ahoy! - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 1:18 pm:

    Zero unless there is a right wing 3rd party candidate that can get enough votes to play a spoiler.


  14. - Ray del Camino - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    Social issues will matter a lot. I offer as proof Mona Charen’s claims that they will not. Methinks the pundit doth protest too much.


  15. - Downstater - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Social issues will not be a factor in the race for Governor or the US Senate. It’s all about the financial matters.


  16. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 2:16 pm:

    Not nearly as much as 4 years ago.

    Particularly with the treasure trove of media columns and stories during the past few months labeling Rauner as holding “moderate” to “liberal” stances on various social issues.

    Any time you try to paint him as a radical conservative on social issues, he can show you 6 to 12 months worth of media coverage saying the exact opposite. That label doesn’t change overnight, except in the eyes of the most blindly partisan.


  17. - Responsa - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 2:25 pm:

    Mona Charen is a DC based political columnist. This is IL and the senate race and the governorship do not have a darn thing to do with “social” issues.


  18. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    Interesting to see that Chopper Jim joined Rauner and a full slate of Illinois GOP establishment types to urge the U.S. House to pass the Senate immigration reform bill.

    The times they are a changin’…..

    http://politics.suntimes.com/article/chicago/rauner-edgar-hastert-push-gop-immigration-reform/mon-04212014-1230pm


  19. - Jimbo - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    The fact that Durbin is Durbin will be the most important factor in the Senate race, but Obie’s views will hurt Rauner. The fact that Rauner is supposedly moderate on social issues is the only reason he has a shot at suburban women. See Brady for an example of what happens when you are a hard right social conservative trying to oust an unpopular governor. It was enough to keep suburban women from voting for Brady, even if other issues were ranked higher in importance. If Rauner can lock up suburban women by distancing himself from Obie’s views, he wins. Jobs and the economy were much more important than social issues last time too, which is why it was close. No one could possibly think Brady lost for anything other than his social views. What was it then? The tax returns?


  20. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 2:38 pm:

    === No one could possibly think Brady lost for anything other than his social views. What was it then? The tax returns?===

    Upstate and Downstate Unions, the GOTV of the Teachers Unions, ASCME, Terry Cosgrove…

    All contributed…


  21. - Frosty The Snowman - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 3:22 pm:

    Actually, it was “the tax returns” (or lack thereof) according to a great many of my Republican friends. I was surprised at how many of my GOP friends told me that they decided “not” to support Brady 4 years ago when he refused to provide his tax return when asked to do so. Brady said he did not want his competition in the home building industry to see how badly his firm had been impacted by the ongoing recession. It was a poor political decision on his part. The former Brady Republican political supporters did not vote for Quinn but instead they chose not to vote for either gubernatorial candidate. That poorly thought out decision by Brady was statistically enough to have cost Brady the 30,000 votes that he needed to win the Governor’s Mansion that year. “Transparency” meant a lot more to GOP voters than Brady probably thought it would it mean.


  22. - Wumpus - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 3:27 pm:

    The GOP is actually showing some discipline this year in lerning when to shut up as certain things are beyond their control. Let’s ask the dog catcher candidate if he/she is pro life!


  23. - Stones - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 3:27 pm:

    I don’t think social issues will be as big this year as they have been in the past. Most campaigns are focused on the economy.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 3:40 pm:

    ===Actually, it was “the tax returns” (or lack thereof) according to a great many of my Republican friends…===

    Speaking to your friends in the bubble of your own making does not make it so.

    Further, Brady allowed the viewing of the returns, it was Plummer who didn’t. Maybe if you and your friends paid attention, your bubble might have facts.

    Hit the Search key, Rich even went into great detail of the post-mortem of the Brady loss, including being absent in Cook County.

    While your “circle” had the false impression of Tax Returns fuel their not voting for Brady, it was a complex recipe that sunk that campaign, social issues were an ingredient too.


  25. - Walker - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    ===”Healthcare, immigration, jobs, Medicare”===

    — are ALL “women’s issues” where the Dems now have an image advantage over GOPers.

    The more narrow issues regarding reproductive health and choice, and pay equity, are no contest.

    Rauner’s only clear path to victory is to define and reinforce general economic fears and frustrations, and show confidence they will be overcome by him.

    Any focus on other issues will be wasting his time and money.


  26. - Keyser Soze - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 3:56 pm:

    The Bill Clinton mantra…..it’s the economy stupid…..will rule the day. Any candidate who defines themselve with social issues deserves to lose. Despite what we have been told, the Illinois economy is not in a recovery mode.


  27. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 5:21 pm:

    The most important Illinois issue should be jobs regardless of sex.

    In Springfield and Washington it will be where’s mine.


  28. - Streator Curmudgeon - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 8:05 pm:

    Rauner will HOPE social issues don’t enter the campaign, but that’s potentially Quinn’s greatest weapon. As bad as Illinois’ economy is, it could turn into an “out-of-touch rich guy” vs. the “middle class defending labor friendly average guy.” When it comes to button pushing, class warfare has more emotional punch than tax-and-spend.


  29. - Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 8:07 pm:

    Ya gotta wonder why he IS trying so hard to do so, and BR may conTINue try his darndest to run away from social issues, but, in the end, such issues–and how the 2 Candidates stand on them–are going to matter a LOT as to how things turn out on November 4th…!


  30. - Jacob S - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 9:43 pm:

    I voted for Quinn in 2010 and I am Pro-life.

    I voted for him because of the Union. I will do so again even thou Quinn is not good to the public employees. Rauner is worse.

    I know many Pro-life women who voted for Quinn so he won due to the Unions.


  31. - Jacob S - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 9:46 pm:

    The democrats are only for “choice” in Abortion.

    In other issues, they want the government to run our life.


  32. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Apr 22, 14 @ 11:39 pm:

    =In other issues, they want the government to run our life.=

    Jacob S might be onto something there. ;)


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Tomorrow's news today
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* *** UPDATED x3 - Full Rauner response - Rauner issues statement - Quinn responds *** Question of the day
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* *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Crosstabs, TV ads, cable TV buys and an events list
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